tom: how far from normal is janet yellen's fed? 200 basis points higher than normal. fought outis being in academic circles. most of the research has come from the san francisco fed. ealy say at the moment, 0% r fed funds rate might be appropriate, which would put it at 1.5%. the blue dots are significantly higher. i think the fed has rethinking to do. let me mention a point, i think that the feds are not thinking in numbers, but they want the market to believe that hikes might come sooner and faster than expected, meaning a positive yield curve. this economy, finance industry banks, insurance companies, they need a positive yield curve to make substantial profits. be extended which they are higher than they might really be, that favors bank margins. at they're shooting for is positive yield curve as opposed to being practical where the real interest rate is going. >> if you look at the projections the fed made in december for the economy in 2016 , we had all of those benchmarks. are they data dependent or not? how is the market supposed to divine where the market is