lisa: i'm lisa abramowicz. matt: consumer confidence data is out. julie hyman has the headlines. julie: a reading of 93. it does all caps off the best quarter since -- does still all cap off the best quarter since 2004. we have a labor market improving. gasoline prices which remain low. the number coming in at 93. this is university of michigan's confidence reading. 95.4 is where it was in february. the average from january through march was the highest we have seen ends the third quarter of 2004. if you look at the various components within confidence you want to look at the inflation expectations in particular. it looks like inflation expectations over the next year remaining at 3%, which is what economists had predicted. we will continue to look through these numbers. overall, not seeing as much of a drop in the confidence number as had been anticipated. matt: thanks very much. breaking the march news, the consumer confidence number they are at 93. -- number there at 93. the top business stories of the morni

lisa: you look great. cory: yes george r martin, the author of the books on which the series is based was there. his thoughts on the lack of technology and innovation. it is interesting because he has a perspective as you imagine, a lot of the back story of "game of thrones" is the war of roses that took place in england in the 1600s. he talks a lot to technology and how it has not always gone forward and that is an important part of the series. >> the question is is technological process something that happens to all societies? and the answer is, no, not necessarily. cory: a heck of a show and season. lots of funny and lots of naked, you will like it. matt: very cool. thank you for that. good job reporting out there. stephen friedman's son is a show runner in "game of thrones." he also a great book called "city of deeds." -- city of thieves. ♪ ♪ >> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is "market makers." matt: investigators want to know why a plane crashed into the mountains after an une

lisa: the cop came in with a file. when she took a look at it, she said there is an investigation done. john: she was immediately convinced that bobby probably killed his wife. mark: why was there no investigation originally? lisa: it is interesting because the film really did nothing and bobby was determined to get the case into the city where he thought he would be treated better. but in fact, nobody did anything either way. john: she picks up the case and says she is not going to pursue it. what happens next? lisa: as soon as he reopens the case, it becomes public. there is a "new york times" article that said she reopened the case. within days of that, bobby was out. one of the people that she wanted to talk first twoto was susan berman,. his spokesperson. john: her father was a gangster. lisa: susan ends up with a bullet in her head gangster style on december 23. of 2000. somebody thought, she is against the daughter -- a gangster's daughter. john: where was the mob hit? lisa: she was broke and bobby was sending h

lisa -- take off like they did a few years ago. lisa: they are not buying it. alix: jeb bush in talks with amazon for an e-book inspired by his e-mails. ♪ alix: hillary clinton may be under fire for using private e-mails as secretary of state, but jeb bush hopes to turn his into an e-book. he is in talks with amazon for a memoir. john allen is in the studio with me. no one is probably going to want to read a book of e-mails, so is this anything more than a push back at hillary clinton? john: hiding his e-mail in plain sight? i do not think many people would buy it. hillary clinton, republicans have known for some time that she had this issue. republican investigators in congress have known for some time. this is a smart move by jeb bush to get out in front of this hillary clinton scandal. even had he not known about this issue with her e-mails, the clintons are famously opec, not transparent. to get up there and say, read my e-mails, it is a contrast. alix: jeb bush, his national campaign, it seems he is sticking by his immigration policies, sticking by commo

mark: lisa, thank you so much. coming up, nigeria at a crossroads. why the country's elections this weekend could have an impact not only on the region but on the global economy as well. stay with us. "bottom line" continues in a moment. ♪ mark: welcome back to the second half hour of "bottom line." i'm mark crumpton in new york. thank you bursting with us. -- thank you for staying with us. as you can see on the screen crude is down 4.96%. the close of floor trading up nearly 5%. the most powerful democrat in congress is set to retire. harry says he will not seek reelection in 2016. he has been the democratic leader for 10 years. he says his demotion was not the reason nor was the eye injury he sustained in january. harry: we have to make sure the democrats take control of the senate again. i feel it is inappropriate for me to soak up all those resources when i can be devoting them to the congress. mark: he was injured while he was exercising at home. his most likely successors are dick durbin and chuck schumer. we did receive word today that he ha

lisa: you are hiring johan. carl: they look at american workers and they say they are a heck of a lot more expensive. alix: and then in china we have a lot of manufacturing there. carl: exactly. we saw this when volkswagen made the decision to move an audi plant from south carolina to mexico. alix: burnett he said the same thing. stronger dollar is good for the u.s. economy. what is different now? carl: it was like the 1990's when we were hollowing out the manufacturing sector and the industry was being offshore to china and elsewhere. lisa: right now also i think part of the problem is, we knew to move away from this policy and by virtue of doing that we will strengthen the dollar and the fed does not want to undermine faith in the u.s. saying we cannot raise rates. it becomes a catch 22. carl: they will have to eventually move, but it is all shades of gray and how they eventually move. alix: great. great conversation, as always, carl and lisa. coming up -- cashing in on oil prices. you will not believe how muc

tom: this is the lisa abramowicz factor. this is lisa abramowicz jiving the -- lisa: thank you. one third of all sovereign debt in europe is negative. tom: lisa, help me. the japan yield is here, but the u.s. -- olivia: for those of you, the viewers, tom is 6'6". tom: is schilling right that this yield goes down? i just pulled a muscle. if i have the watch, it wouldn't have happened. lisa: in london, it was talking about bank of america, david wu who was saying that the strong dollar is actually going to offset the effect of a weaker euro. that basically the deflationary pressure of the stronger dollar will undermine the inflationary pressure that a lower euro will exert. the concern is that really this will all compress the lower yields all around, and frankly that signifies deflation, which is a big concern for a lot of people. olivia: coming up, we all know college is a major expense, but which schools are worth their price tag? that will be another heated debate. we will show you today's single best chart. tom's alma mater is not on it. we will be back. ♪ tom: hold on. rig

do you buy that lisa -- do you buy that? lisa: not at all. for years, they have had a rocky personal relationship but they also have -- they view things very differently. netanyahu has never wanted a two state solution. president obama, during his trendsetting speech that he gave at cairo university in 2009 very specifically said that the administration did not view jewish settlement -- did not view in favor jewish settlement in the west bank. alex: what does president obama do going forward when you have him committing to security and intelligence and military in rizzuto, but he says there doesn't seem to be their prospect for any meaningful framework for the u.s. and israel to agree on this? lisa: i don't think the president has that many options. he can expresses displeasure in many different ways -- express his displeasure in many different ways. he can tell officials to stop protecting -- not to veto anti-israel resolutions, not to put europe on a short leash when it comes to putting sanctions on israel but can it actually cut the relati

lisa? they have been ignoring any oil related deflationary force, dismissing it as something temporary. ira: but that would be a change to something said by janet yellen in her press conference -- if they change there and say they are worried about it, that is a shift in policy. we do not think they will do that, but that is only a risk. alix: speaking of janet yellen and when there will be a huge press conference, we saw that economic data, the forecast economic data really pushed stocks higher and weighed on that dollar. this is happening right as the fed starts its meeting tomorrow. will the fed remove patience from its statement, giving more flexibility on the timing of rates? however this is happened as the dollar has resumed its humongous highs for the last year. the euro almost at parity with the dollar. the dollar really climbing against the yen and you see the brazilian real getting destroyed. this has huge implications. joe: yeah, i think one of the fascinating things -- we have h

lisa, we'll check back with you later in the show. just ahead, we will look at the ecb's influence on investors this quarter, and what that might tell you and us about the rest of the year. later in the program, the major media mergers moving stocks today. that is a tongue twister for you. "street smart" will be right back. ♪ alix: this week investors are analyzing a school of economic data for clues on the rate increase. jeffrey lacher said the main interest rate should be raised in june, pointing to the jobs market, and spending growth heading back to the fed target. confidence is rising to the second highest level since august, 27. home prices rising at a faster pace in 20 major u.s. cities to -- cities, but manufacturing chicago tracking. we are joined by rcb economist tom moore sally -- tom. we see this divergence. what you see continuing? tom: what we would say is a lot of what we went through over the last couple of months, we think some of the weakness is easily explained. the weather, the port strikes -- look, i get it, and

alix: lisa what do you think? lisa: concerns about global growth. that is the biggest concern, whether the u.s. can escape the drag of the slowdown in the rest of the world's economy, and if she expenses confidence that we can continue to diverge, it signifies an inclination to a bearishness to hike sooner and stay the course. alix: if you guys were in the news conference, what would be the question, carl? carl: i would ask her how much confidence she has in the labor market holden -- holding up given the downdraft we have seen in the economy lately with industrial production looking week, soft surveys retail sales soft -- with the exception of labor indicators, a lot of economic data has deteriorated. i would try to see how much she is willing to chalk up q1 two westport -- west coast port disruptions and severe weather. alix: lisa, what would be the important questions? lisa: what are the market data points she looks at every morning, or does she even look at market indicators to queue off of? that is something that is telling. they have to be som

constance hunter, sebastian and lisa abramowitz. the headline as peter cook told us, patients language has been dropped. >> they are going to be patient and they told you they will be patient by what they tell you they are watching for. they will watch for signs of falling inflation is not transitory and they will watch for signs that we get continued quality of improvement in the labor market. >> how is the dollar reacting sebastian? >> weakened a lot. the market is aggressive. fx is a higher volatility asset class. it has over anticipated and will continue to do so. over the next few days come with going to happen is people need to move back into the dollar. short-term is dollar down and equities up. >> lisa abramowitz has been pouring over how the bond market is reacting. >> the two-year yields dropped the most since january 30, 2015. not that far ago. people are ratcheting back their expectations for when and how much the fed will hike interestingly if you look at futures trading, it does look like people are increasing the prob

let me get lisa. lisa: first of all, i have been saying that i was certain netanyahu would be reelected. charlie: why? lisa: the numbers were in his favor, and the primary opposition did not offer an alternative plan. the economy is a big issue for average israelis. the most popular viral campaigns being shared on social media focused on not being able to make a living, on the cost of living and low salaries. so that was why a lot of the analysts looked at the massive positive response to the clips and said that is what the voter cares about, buying an apartment and make it through the end of the month. israel has the widest wage gap. in the end, what really happened was netanyahu launched into -- lee atwater tactics. that is a clever point. what he did was classic populist campaign techniques. charlie: i want to go to ronen on that point. did the prime minister win the election, or did herzog lose this election because they did not make the case that they needed to make? ronen: yes. it is like playin

lisa: which is why they are putting an emphasis on this. they want app developers to use their platform to develop the next big thing so they do not become obsolete. alex: win-win, app developers want the 1.4 billion person audience facebook delivers. betty: exactly. there is apple, that is number one. number two, catch it meets correlate. -- ketchup meets kool aid. kraft will merge with heinz kraft owners will own a 49% stake of the combined company. alex: we heard a lot of grumblings that warren buffett was interested in this. lisa: i'm trying to figure out their next product velveeta ketchup. betty: your dinner menu. as we near the opening bell, futures are slightly higher. our top story and the opening bell is next. ♪ betty: welcome back to the "in the loop." joining me is alex sherman and lisa abramowicz. number one, oil. crude awakening for commodities as wall street says the u.s. is running out of places to store oil. there's another 20 million barrels of empty space located i love this, on top of the field tanks. who miscalculated

scarlet: here to walk us through is lisa and pimm fox. cathy wood served as chief investment officer. we have a minute until the close but we just heard scarlet talking about oil. what do you think oil does to the stock market? >> it is a tax cut and an increase in purchasing power. it is good for 85% of the global economy. i look at it as good deflation. the word deflation has a bad connotation but the reason the market has been moving up is because of good deflation. alix: now we're seeing m&a related to the price. we are looking for opportunities and so better oil prices, better m&a. keri: everything has been disappointing. pimm: cold weather. cold weather in december and january affecting people's desire to go out and spend. alix: consumer confidence was also down. alix: we want to update you on the closing bell. running a little higher into the close, way off the highs of the session. the s&p closing just off 12, so really regaining some of those losses we saw earlier in the session. the nasdaq off by 21 points. are we looking at a b

it scares lisa. lisa: talking to central thinkers physically cutting the standards. real estate is 20% of the chinese economy. this is a major part of economy, as it is ours. and yet if you have a problem with underlying fundamental borrowers, it could be something that is hard to control. alix: if weaker currencies are not enough to stimulate export growth we have a larger issue on our hands, what do you inc.? michael: one thing i want to say is we are looking at the cover deals here. i don't like what the pboc did here. they have taken this term. i am confident beijing can clean this up. they are doing a lot of reforms. back then it was all about construction and building infrastructure. to me it is stimulating other things. the chinese consumer is going to reach some kind of program that beijing is going to use. is there going to be some kind of push to help the chinese industries? tech is the sleeping giant for me. i think that is going to turn around. : carl: they are trying to stimulate domestic demand. it is a very -- it is very dependent on exports. a strong

lisa abramowicz is covering the story for us. you know it is doing everything he can, it's still seeing the top line get smaller and smaller. these are: some of this is intentional. -- lisa: some of this is intentional. it needs to shrink in order to become more profitable. but how do you cut the parts that are not making money while bolstering the parts that are making money? traditionally, trading has been one of the most profitable corners of investment banking. this has been a dilemma for them. they have been cutting some, but had to recently height -- fight to hold onto one of their investment grade trading arms. matt: they have not had a great couple of years. it has been tough. is there any indication that business will turnaround? lisa: a lot of firms are betting on that, particularly smaller firms. there is a bet going on that one yields start to rise, then their business will turnaround. but that is the big question. it has been a business that has really changed especially with the increase in electronic trading stock

lisa: in europe you also have a better mood. it is really lovely, they are trying to make sure that they do move forward without a run on banks in greece, making this happen sooner rather than later. alix: one thing that stood out to me was that policymakers cannot influence the labor participation rate. is that new? mike: not new, but why is it going down as much as it has? we have seen labor force participation going down for quite a long time and it is just a question of -- did the crisis add to it? probably, but it is mostly a question of demographics, people leaving the labor force for age reasons and monetary policy cannot do anything about that. janet yellen has suggested that maybe it can without putting specifics on it so an interesting debate between those two. alix: you're the smartest person i know pretty much all the time what is the number one thing you will be looking for tomorrow? mike: you want to look at core cpi. the fed's goal is an index that is pretty similar but it is one where we are seeing the effect of

always good to have you on lisa. next, the fed releases the final results of its annual stress test results that we will post right after this break. ♪ alix: the stress tests are out. scarlet, you're watching them to >>. >> a lot of people were wondering whether michael corbat would lose his job, but now that it has gotten the ok, they are looking for a $.10 dividend to -- dividend. bake -- bank of america has to re-turn capital to shareholders. the u.s. units of deutsche bank have failed this part of the federal reserve's tested. they had to revise their proposal in order for them to get the passing mark. this is the fifth year that the federal reserve has scrutinized banks, and we know the fed looks at quantitative and qualitative factors. quantitative of the projected capital ratios. qualitative is less number space and more based on the perceived strength of the companies financial and capital planning processes. this is what we are looking at when the fed determines whether these bank should be able to return

lisa abramowicz and of course matt miller. taking a look just at the stock market now, is there anything more than buying the dip in the last few days? jeff: you look at the news and it continues to be good. i think it is messy and that is one of the challenges. you have to start looking. we have been told not to spend the gas savings just yet. matt: i have got to think the retail sales number gives you an opportunity if you are bullish. you know they're saying -- saving money at the pump and they will now go out and sent -- spend more when the so when the snow melts. alix: not if you are in the oil market though. a whole different story. lisa, we saw a lot of volatility happening according to the retail sales and the rally in stocks trade what did you make of that? lisa: retail sales were weaker than expected and researchers were saying, when will we finally see the advantage to him are consumed -- consumer getting savings? it does not seem to show up. is it more of a detriment than a benefit? then people started to look and

lisa: it is hard to parse through the words to see what the motivations are. it is exhausting, people pounding it again and again. the finance minister of germany said that he can wear a necktie or not he can talk a shirt in or not, we do not care, but verbal attacks on the financial minister are on acceptable -- unacceptable. peter: the other thing that is so hard with europe, most financial ministers are politicians. it is not like when we had the treasury department which really was finance people. whether you liked what they did or not they were true finance people, they understood it got the details right. what it goes on in europe is a complete lack of understanding and an unwillingness to dig into the details. a very two inconsistent statements coming out of the same time. alix: we do have a bank of england official coming out and saying failure to find a solution to the debt problem could cause market correction. peter: it will have a small impact on europe, but not much. one thing that will surprise people as you will actually see a stronger europe. i

alix: i just want to go on to oil. >> i like it when lisa goes on. but let me tell you about my weekend. alix: we've seen oil coming off brent falling for the eighth straight day. one analyst saying flows into etf totaled north of $5 billion since july of 2014. they say we will see brent come off a little bit as supplies get better and demand falls off, but this financial aspect is going to be a lot more severe than the actual fundamental dictate. >> you have a lot of speculators, a lot of inventories, a lot of ships full of oil with nowhere to go. look at the spread between wti and brent widening. >> what am i looking at here? the spread is 12. >> it's even worse. a month or two, it was two or three, so it's a massive difference. >> how much of oil is a currency story? does it all come back to the strong dollar? >> there's something else that play because you see monti's like copper fall off. it has to do with weakening growth globally. there's a bloomberg commodity index at its lowest level ever. it is definitely something people are watching. expe

his eldest daughter, lisa. emily: you spoke with steve jobs. did you ever meet with mark zuckerberg? did you ever speak to mark zuckerberg? aaron: no. we met with senior facebook people and said we are doing this movie, would you like to cooperate in the making of this movie. badly wanting them to say no, which is what they did. we needed them to say no because if they did cooperate, the integrity of the movie would be compromised. the movie, i think kind of humanized him in a way. if you were over 35, you thought it was a cautionary tale. if you are under 35, you thought mark was a rock star who did what had to be done to achieve his dream. i don't think anyone would be comfortable with a movie being made about who they were when they were 18, 19, 20 years old. and i thought that mark was an incredibly good sport about it. really classy. emily: knowing what we know now, in the few years since the movie came out, would you have changed the way you wrote the character? aaron: i don't think so. i've never written anything where i wouldn't like to

his eldest daughter, lisa. emily: you spoke with steve jobs. did you ever meet with mark zuckerberg? did you ever speak to mark zuckerberg? aaron: no. we met with senior facebook people and said we are doing this movie, would you like to cooperate in the making of this movie. badly wanting them to say no, which is what they did. we needed them to say no because if they did cooperate, the integrity of the movie would be compromised. the movie, i think kind of humanized him in a way. if you were over 35, you thought it was a cautionary tale. if you are under 35, you thought mark was a rock star who did what had to be done to achieve his dream. i don't think anyone would be comfortable with a movie being made about who they were when they were 18, 19, 20 years old. and i thought that mark was an incredibly good sport about it. really classy. emily: knowing what we know now, in the few years since the movie came out, would you have changed the way you wrote the character? aaron: i don't think so. i've never written anything where i wouldn't like to

. >> today, one year after lisa, e are introducing the first -- the third industry milestone product. macintosh. >> there was this challenge from steve, i have to introduce macintosh. it has to be dramatic and famous. it's got to be different. we had a meeting where we presented a whole bunch of thinking that went into launching macintosh. he thought it was brave. he thought it was great. it was the board of directors, thinking it was stupid and irresponsible. there was a moment when they were trying to pull the plug on the funds and have it not run. he was there with wozniak and said, i will pay for half of it if you will. it did not have to come to that. they did make that overture at one point. so you open on this place that represents the future. with people marching to a central hall. our idea was that big brother represented the control of technology by the few. lots of people decided by the bluish quality and the competitive situation that apple found themselves in that big brother represented ibm. that wasn't the intent but it probably worked on that level as well. running dow

alex: joining me is lisa and the oppenheimer fund chief investment officer. raise your hand if you know why we are selling off triple digits. >> we should not be selling off. alex: right so why are we doing it? that's we entered the you're thinking growth is going to be spectacular. it did not turn out that way. stocks had run up in anticipation of the growth outlook. once growth comes back, we will climb back again like last year. that's what does it say that we have three of the smartest people i know onset, and knowing can pinpoint this. that's what we see happening is a loss of momentum in the economy. economists were originally looking for 2.5% to 3% growth. stocks are a great forward indicator. the economy is getting some headwinds we weren't expecting. >> is the bad news actually bad news? >> there is a tactical factor at play. we are getting to the end of the quarter and people want to lock in their gains. people are basically say why not? cash in i'll the going is good. >> the momentum had done quite good over the past few months and i think that's p

alix: i'm joined now by lisa abramowicz. and the chief global strategist michael perverts. what you think of the fed yesterday and what do you think is the effect on the stock market? >> i thought it was instructive for the stock market. when you parse through the details of their communications what is starting to be revealed is that we will get a high get some point. but it's going to come with more conditionality and it's not going to be a strategic half away from what i called the vision when needed. they will manage the rate hike extremely carefully and over the broader term at least based on yesterday, it's very much close to the money. alix: so where's the rally? >> what is fueling the rally? it's not optimism about growth, and there are mixed signals, if it's not coming from international signs of growth where is it coming from eschew mark just more rates for longer? at some point, that loses its efficacy. >> the market hasn't given back all the game. he saw a big swing back in the dollar and oil, but stocks haven't given it all up. i do think it is interesting -- w

these are brought moments -- lisa abramowitz standing by. let me begin with this. 69% of the 49 economists surveyed by bloomberg news believe the fed will remove the word "patient" from its forward guidance language. will it be taken out and will it be replaced by some other form of guidance? >> i think they will take it out. i don't think they will replace it with another word per se. they realize having this word creates a bunch of interest of when it gets removed. i don't think that stops them from being patient. the fed will be patient. they will be data dependent. >> will they take it out? >> we have a 5% probability it doesn't happen. they will take it out. we are going for a rate hike in june. >> what is the bond market expecting? >> the bond market is expecting that they will take patience out. if they don't, that will be a bitter surprise and will say something about the confidence they have in the u.s. economy. the bigger surprise is that they don't take outpatients. -- out patience. >> they are saying march, april, may. by how muc

some people compare it to lisa - - visa apple pay paypal. it is really none of those things. >> if you think about how the payment used to be, a much more complex process. today any developer that opens up the website it is merely a call. they used to be when someone would start a website, you could go to drugstore.co and would have to build an infrastructure to figure out how i will recognize a number that will come in. how will i verify the numbers and set the payment on that account? >> that is right. >> waiting for approvals to get into business today. today you create the website and within minutes it does this for you. you can talk about what we just talked about and make it of course utility everyone uses. >> this is at least four years old, maybe 20. probably about 20 years old. is it really that entire time there has not been a api for that gekko >> absolutely not. in today's world it looks like a broken stat. when you think about the interchange -- >> broken stat, which is to say a lot of crummy technologies that do not fit well to

lisa: i'm lisa abramowicz. matt: consumer confidence data is out. julie hyman has the headlines. julie: a reading of 93. it does all caps off the best quarter since -- does still all

lisa abramowitz tells us why the jefferies group ceo is turning to california in search of an edge. peter cook

they announced a deal with lisa and cosco. federal reserve chair janet yellen is answering critics in congress who say the fed is too cozy with the banks it regulates. in a speech in new york she said the fed works hard to avoid what she called regulatory capture. >> we enforce strict ethics rules and promote strong values among our employees. among them, a commitment to public service. it is important anyone serving the fed starts speaking up when they have concerns about pius and that those concerns be addressed. mark: massachusetts senator elizabeth war and has been one of the biggest critics. she says the fed is too deferential to large banks. that is a look at the top stories we are following on this wednesday. more on the fed -- newly released transcripts from its 2009 meetings revealed how much that official struggled to contain the worst financial crisis in seven decades. my guest is a bloomberg intelligence economist and joins me here in the studio. six years ago this month kevin morris was a set of the board -- a mem

the sick assigned -- the citgo sign is the mona lisa. it will go for billions of dollars. the red sox played like venezuela last year. olivia: my father would be excited to have the original letters. speaking of citgo, are you ready for $10 a barrel? that is the contrarian call gary shilling made. crude has been hovering around $50 a barrel and dropped below that this morning. gary, has your reading changed? dr. shilling: i think we are beginning to see down in oil. he really is that cartels exist to keep prices above equilibrium and that encourages cheating. the leader of the cartel has to encourage cheaters saudis are tired of that. they are playing a game of chicken. tom: everybody is on supply side, i will that the bank -- i will bet the bank gary is looking at demand destruction. dr. shilling: we wrotes this three months ago after the saudis pulled a plug at thanksgiving. it is supply and demand. weakness in demand and supply is increasing. 9.3 million barrels a day in this country of production and it is increasing. other places are increasing. russia -- tom: you are

here with me to discuss all things fed lisa and carl. they are already having debates on set. and michael. i wish you are sitting here next to me. i want to start with you. what was your biggest take away? when is your fed rate hike? >> the move in the interest-rate projections, the statement at the press conference were pretty much in line. i saw the move probably a little bit more than apparently the markets were expecting. our call was for a june lift off. we are obviously on our heels after today's news. it does look like the center groups are probably more aligned with september. it does present a challenge to our cause for sure. >> take a look at the futures rate you see an increased probability of a rate hike increasing to 40% probability. carl, what do you think? >> i think september is probably still a main target here. they could go as late as october. i do not think that happens. i think the fed wants to wait to see what transpires in the economy in the first half of the year. we know the first quarter of data looked weird because of the weather issues. sit back and