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tv   First Business  FOX  September 21, 2009 5:00am-5:30am EDT

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people receiving unemployment may continue to get it three more months...but who'll be stuck paying the bill? the recession is impacting the insurance industry..a look at the state of auto and home insurance from both, the companies and consumers prospective. plus....why go to college when there are no jobs, how the stimulus money mnay be better spent...and is uncle sam spinning the jobless numbers to look better than they are...all ahead in viewer mail. broke a man everybody the same story tell the difference cordis september turned out to be the one that not many people expect it to be historically sept. the worst month for shareholders and yes they certainly a year ago the lehman brothers bankruptcy sending the economy in the markets into a tailspin
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and one year later we have the dow knocking on the door at 10,000 s p 552 week highs. this week is going to be a big one for investors on wednesday it is going to be a big decision on interest rates from the federal reserve and that the economy is starting to get a little better these meetings on interest rates are going to be increasingly more important because the federal reserve as walking it very fine line on what to do with interest rates because the one hand they don't want to raise wages to quickly because that could choke the economic recovery on the other hand have to keep inflation in check but once inflation starts to get out of control is very difficult to rein in so i think what to do with interest rates could very well be the most difficult job the fed will have to lug this entire crisis. how big a splash to put in the market to support the look with the debt that provide the market closed this week when mortgage interest rates are close to all- time lows a 30 year mortgage interest rate averaged round 5%.
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more relief could be on the way for thousands of people who are about to lose their unemployment benefits ... this week congress will consider whether to extend those payments.. a bill in the house of representatives calls for an additional 13 weeks of unemployment insurance in states that have high jobless rates.. of at least 8.5%. if apprpoved, it would help more than 300-thousand unemployed people... that are expected to run out of benefits by the end of this month. and by the end of this year, more than 1 million workers will collect their last unemployment checks.. according to the national employment law project. right now.. for every available job - there are nearly 6 unemployed americans... and the level of long term unemployment is at historic highs... about 5 million people have been without work for more than 6 months. and more on the legislation that congress will vote on in the coming weeks the bill's sponsor says the additional cost of extending unemployment benefits would be
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paid for.. and would not add to the deficit. to help offset the cost... the proposal calls for extending the federal unemployment tax that companies pay by one year... the tax costs employers 14 dollars per year.. for each employee. the legislation calls for extending unemployment benefits through the end of next year.. it would apply to workers living in 26 states with the highest unemployment rates. congress has voted to extend unemployment benefits twice during the past year... and if you add in the additional extention provided in the economic stimulus program... in some cases... individuals can be eligible to receive benefits for well over a year. so currently it's possible for workers to collect for 79 weeks.. continue to look for work.. remain elgible.. right now.. for 79 weeks.. it's possible to colelct those
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dollars however the average length of time people here in illinois are collecting unemployment benefits is around 58 weeks... that's at a historic high... this week.. as congress debates whether to extend benefits even longer... many are still struggling to find the jobs they want. right now i'm trying to find anything.. but you never make what you made .. what do employers tell you? .. they say come back in a year.. not accepting applications right now.. just keep looking it'll give people 3 months to get back on feet... what people need.. i think it's a good thing the nationwide unemployment rate hit 9.7 percent last month.... and close to 15 million workers are jobless. this week could be the we do we seek by big its back from the dow jones industrial average
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still forbid for gold palestine over at the cme group. let's talk with the four digit with gold here $1,000 an ounce in the last week what overhang does that provide the equity market? right now seems to be fueling the market high your i'm not sure which is following with was certainly less which we solve the traded gold reaching that thousand dollars level. more importantly the way i would get it is actually been sustained at this point so you see a sign of a substance that those levels. i'm not sure the exact stopping price that we saw in terms of being high but above $1,001 an ounce. the rejection from those levels oil plain wrong with the upper extremists well as the recent steady to 75 last week. big dollars are nominated commodities are hoping to have that's about about 10,000 this was news to years ago when he really began. again after coming off of such extreme
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ways that we have had into those extreme levels right now everybody is talking about how this is a great thing to be back at about 10,000 closing the week out on friday roughly around 9800 and change one another all day with a very quiet trading session. we close out with low volume altogether and it's been one of the concerns as far as many traders go with this recent rally dubious scene. is is slowly starting to unwind while losing steam at these levels? you had a good spot on for years about big dollar was the you think we will revisit 10,000 before the end of the year? certainly i think 2000 is inevitable at this point no less against the los that we saw thursday or friday were the stopping price of the major extreme vertical that we see right now if that is the case will see more horizontal development we will prowl the test those levels. traders audio about, at the cme group.
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still to come why one viewer thinks unemployed parents may be setting a bad example for their children...that's later in the show. but first...from home to auto...the state of insurance...and how the economy could be impacting it.
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so far it has been a pretty quiet hurricane season, and with the stock market bouncing back, the portfolios of insurance companies may not be as bruised and battered as they have been in years past. lambros lambrou heads up aon analytics, part of
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the aon corporate. welcome to the program was to empire meant the state of insurance industry here and a lot of part of 2009. a lot more solid and was this time last year. do the second half of last year the meltdown occurred in the overall industry created a lot of problems for the insurance industry's volatility in capital markets we have some losses to its 2007 to 2009 and the impact that have on depleting the capital positions was very painful and actually contributed to a number of downgrades that were provided by. the credit rating agencies which can make it difficult for them to go out and get business because koppell wants to be ensured by a trust company that may not be able to pay their bills. how is a credit known industry? at the we've seen a little bit of stability as far as creating a lot of the volatility roundels downgrades occurred in much of last year into this year will have seen a relatively benign catastrophe loss season in conjunction with
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an approved in the global equity market that has helped to restore confidence to the financial well-being of insurance companies in the capital bases. have you seen those been upgraded again? the reality is credit rating agencies take a fair amount of time to review the french position of insurance companies and making sure is sustainable employment and the financial well-being. us to look at property and casualty insurance a minted a relatively quiet hurricane season this year relatively quiet last year as well. still a little bit for me go of premiums up about 4%. personally as far as the hurricane season is concerned that has a number of weeks ago before the end of october a month or six weeks is a long time when cost to the hurricane season sorry one is still hoping how this is one to turn out. you go to a contribution of
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2007 property year the still have a number of losses as far as the underwriting results of insurance companies are concerned there is no doubt that things have deteriorated last 12 was what was said to you on the property side there is a difference to market conditions for companies that are susceptible to natural catastrophe risk where there is some caution been paid out buy property terrors and companies who don't have assets and natural catastrophe areas where market mysteries were closer and the buyer of that in short- term bills companies are operating mid-air as a little bit less price increasing pressure. let's talk cavities auto rates moving up you see generally speaking casualty when workers, moving down what explains these trends? really the issue in the casualty side is more to do with the capacity of both the marketplace. there's a lot of risk appetite out there
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by insurance companies placing cavity premiums. therefore the competitive forces the extreme spawned and us not to say that they don't have but averaged what various levels of caution that is being used by carriers. there's still some concern about what is the next big risk to the score to come along. whether its mold the silicon generic drugs d m else would ever it might be. using those preprinted general policy? certainly some caution around converse by as trust companies to have those risks. take a look at directors and officers insurance as well key entrance port corporations of any size we will talk about the next time with aon analytics. online items after the show.... be sure to
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catch us online for a glimpse of the economy from behind an 18- one small trucking company is surviving the recession. plus, big movie studios gear up for the upcoming film festival season.... looking for the next break out hit...will the move payoff for studios... and investors? and... a check up on money market can find these stories and more on our website...first and straight ahead on the show... unemployment seems to be on the minds of most american's these days..especially our viewers....we dive into viewer
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as expected with the unemployment rate hovering close to 10 percent loss of both coming in on the voicemail x and for some job hands but also a little bit of a critique about how we've been talking about jobs our first caller things that we are setting a bad example. palo this is miss reist and i'm calling from texas you are setting an example a very bad example for our children that you will love to go to college. was to use going to call it with appearance can even get jobs and they have for college educations. that's something to think about. and i can understand where she is coming from you have a record high unemployment rate.
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companies are shedding jobs by the millions here and yet the costs of education is going up. people are coming got school with thousands and thousands of dollars in debt and i can understand i would want to go much into that when the job market is so bad. absolutely its a discouraged in the short run is certainly understandable but to suggest that we are sending a bad example by pointing out that those which higher education have a lower unemployment rate i think that's exactly what people need to see that in education is not something that is a short-term the best is a long-term investment hopefully it'll pay dividends all the course of their lifetime. another up conversation another call on the unemployment issue. hi tom the state and i heard the other day millions of people are no longer were looking for work is totally misleading and
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inaccurate. people who run out of unemployment are counted as no longer looking for work this is done by government spin doctors to make the unemployment numbers look better than they really are. i certainly will agree with him that the government numbers are spawned in such a way. they are intellectually honest for a month to month to month of the bureau of labor statistics which brings up the unemployment rate called 6000 households every month and try to figure out if they're working or not it doesn't care whether you're getting unemployment insurance that has no impact whatsoever on the national unemployment rate but to take a look and who's not included in the unemployment numbers 1 million and a half marginally attached workers who are available to work have a look for work in the past month because school or family considerations and three- quarters of a million who have a look for work because they're
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just downright discouraged. they don't think the job is out that they're not even considered part of the unemployment. he says that if everyone is really included in the pool of unemployment that includes people who are underemployed that number will be about 17%. let's move on now to charles has a comment about how the stimulus money is being spent. i draw from oklahoma city oklahoma i wanted to make a comment about the money they have been giving to the banks fannie mae and filling out everybody but they shouldn't give all this so much money and bailout money to you to need to everybody all the working americans out here all the heads of households. that's my comment. i have to say that sentiment is probably echoed by millions of americans when you look at cut billions of dollars in taxpayer money has been given to these banks and and turn those banks have followed up bonuses to the very people who played a role high school when they're ripping up. i would be a little ticked off to. a very common sentiment to save look at the two trillion plus dollars in estimates money bill allows of different kinds how about cutting a check for 20 grand for every man woman and child. still some more phone calls for you today. hey guys i love your show and i did this
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fantastic and i love the connections that you make on a business level you are the best on that. i learn so much information and get a lot of experience from which you have to say. so keep a great work. thank you. well thank you for a plan called we always appreciate comments at first business x. c o m is the e-mail address if you want to delve into the boy's milk 3126608397. coming up next to chart talk is going to be a big week for home builders we have new home sales out in the coming weeks will take a closer look at the e t f.
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is going to be a big week for the home building sector this week we have a loss of housing that the existing home sales on thursday new-home sales on friday took a closer look at x h p does the home builder e t f is a band of 34% since j. russo will outperform the s&p 5.2 which is up about 18% year-to- date. $16 a share looks to be delayed its foundation for this and this week maybe will tell us it is built on brown or sand it had been some technical resistance of the past couple of once a final the last remark dissections your seen as group phone builder stock move above 60 and stayed above 60 in a band of earnings. and home sales figures coming out as well. in the past four or five months this e t f has been spawned take a look at the
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bigger picture here begin when this e t of it started trading it was well above $40 a share so if you connect the lore highs and take a look at the bigger picture is still a technical downtrend. ugly picture no doubt the tells you still that there housing bubble is working off some of the access to both the are risk averse may want to wait to the downtrend breaks out but you have a lot of different things going on mortgage rates of 5% the first time tax credit for home buyers still out there questions about the longevity of that period is $8,000 tax credit and you have to find a home close on a complete the sale by december 1st of this year and so the question is is congress going to extend and if they don't hell is going to impact home sells? we want to hear from you again the e-mail address comments at first business x. c o m and the voice mail see you online back her next time.
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