Closed captions transcript:

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It was the 2nd on u.s.

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Coalition forces at the Taj the air
base since Wednesday it follows u.s.

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Retaliation Friday on Iraqi targets including
several She ate hushed the Xabi bases

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one mostly

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a Shiite police space and the Karbala air
base now under construction and air and

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the media says Iraqi security forces
arrested the owner of the lot from which the

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rockets were fired into the air
base along with Iraqi forces at

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a nearby checkpoint who saw the attack.
Iraq's Joint Operations Command says

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personnel are still searching for the
perpetrators Edward Uranian for v.o.a.

00:00:39
News Cairo Hong Kong democracy activist
Chen kin man walked free from prison on

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Saturday saying he had no regrets for his
leading role in the 2014 umbrella civil

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disobedience movement writers Olivia Chen
reports 61 year old China is one of the

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we need is the free democracy movement
in 2014 to push full democracy in the

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Chinese will thinking he was found guilty
last year of conspiracy to commit public

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nuisance to his brilliant plan and am
mobilizing the force of the umbrella movement

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stage

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a $79.00 days to tame that but not to major
banks and city bring the Asian financial

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front to

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a standstill the symbolic umbrella tactic
reimagine last year during the sometimes

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fine and anti-government
protests triggered by

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a now with to an extradition
bill that's Olivia Chan Reuters

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a pair of highly attended sports museums
the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the

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Baseball Hall of Fame here in the United
States are barring visitors because of the

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corona virus outbreak a.p.

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Correspondent Mike Reeves reports the
Baseball Hall of Fame and Pro Football Hall

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of Fame of said they will be closing to the
public due to the coronavirus pandemic

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the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown
New York and that's the it will close to

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the public beginning Sunday at 5 pm the
shrine will provide updated information

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regarding this closure on each subsequent
Sunday the Pro Football Hall of Fame in

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Canton Ohio will be closed to the public
from Monday through March 27th and will

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continue to closely monitor the situation
and maintain ongoing to meet occasion

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with state and local health officials I'm
Mike Reed and Tokyo's governor Yuriko

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Koike

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a on Saturday vowed to take thorough measures
against the corona virus outbreak so

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the Olympic torch relay through Japan can
be safe and secure his comments came

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after Greece canceled the relay in their
country because of fears of the virus I'm

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David for v.o.a.

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News. This is Encounter on

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v.o.a.

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Here's Carol Castillo. Welcome to Encounter
on The Voice of America on this edition

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of the program Syria in crisis the coronavirus
may be grabbing worldwide headlines

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nonetheless other global crises
demand our attention what began as

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a peaceful civilian uprising 9 years ago
against the brutal regime of Syrian

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President Bashar al Assad has evolved into
one of the most horrific humanitarian

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and political disasters in the region if
not the globe at least 400000 people have

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died since the uprising began the conflict
has displaced more than half of Syria's

00:03:23
people and created the largest refugee
population in the world in recent weeks the

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Syrian civil war entered

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a new phase when in late February but
the regime began an assault on the

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northwestern province

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a region that had remained outside of its
control since the early years of the

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conflict and is considered the last rebel
stronghold in the country according to

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the Arab Center for Research and Policy
Studies in Washington the regime's military

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operations have displaced close to

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a 1000000 Syrian refugees who fled to the
Turkish Syrian border in recent weeks the

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Russian air force and Iran backed militias
have aided Syrian regime forces who

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attacked it lead inevitably exposing the
civilian population as well as Turkish

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troops to danger seeking to avenge the
killing of at least $34.00 Turkish soldiers

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Turkish president. Bombarded Syrian regime
targets and it led the situation remains

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tense this spite

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a fragile ceasefire between Ancora and
Moscow Syrian refugees among whom are many

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women and children fleeing the violence
and lib have borne the brunt of the geo

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political machinations among Syria Russia
Iran. And Turkey Well joining us to

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analyze the complicated political and
humanitarian landscape in Syria are 2

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regional experts Mona Jacobian is senior
adviser to the vice president of the

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Middle East and Africa at the u.s.

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Institute of Peace where her work centers
on conflict analysis and prevention with

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a specific focus on Syria Iraq and Lebanon
and Hussein Ibish He's senior resident

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scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute
in Washington and both panelist joined me

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here at the v.o.a.

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Broadcast Center in Washington welcome to
the program so he's not thank you Well

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Mona you're Koby let me begin with you and
let's start by looking at the state of

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play by actually looking backward 9 years
since this uprising and the subsequent

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civil and proxy war began did you ever
imagine that it would come to this current

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tragic and terrifying juncture and then
what are some of the main factors in your

00:05:36
view that have contributed to this current
geo political and humanitarian state of

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play well I think it at that time was
unimaginable that we could see what started

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again as peaceful protest teenage boys
scrawling graffiti on the walls it would

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turn into exactly what you've described
this multi level complex conflict

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and I think this is largely

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a result of the fact that we have seen
multiple actors getting involved in this

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conflict it started again as a peaceful
uprising it rather quickly became

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a civil war but then beyond that as regional
players and even other international

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players began to become involved in the
conflict it quickly morphed into what we're

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seeing today so let me get your take
Hussein Ibish could you have imagined the

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state of play today and what do you
think are some of the main factors that

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contributed whether it. An action or action
I could have in fact Yeah I think if

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you viewed Syria through the lens of the
Lebanese experience and I think there are

00:06:47
a lot of similarities between the countries
and not just cultural it is imaginable

00:06:51
that you'd end up in the situation I
think that there are several key turning

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points that point to for how we went
from these peaceful protests in

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a couple of cities in Daraa and resort and

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a few other places in the periphery of Syria
you know to this situation we have now

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I think the 1st key thing was the decision
of the regime which is not surprising to

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use every means possible to ensure that
the peaceful protests became an armed

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uprising to give people no choice by using
brute force themselves by themselves

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militarizing the situation they sort of
forced people who wanted to continue to

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fight against the regime to pick up arms
and from the beginning they talked about

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a war against terrorism and an invasion of
Syria by terrorists and regional forces

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and they kind of imagined ISIS before Isis
existed and then they they will do it

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into existence and they got their way so
that's one crucial thing now once we have

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the war I think the next crucial phase
is the swinging away from rebel momentum

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towards the regime right and that's to face
that's the extraordinary disinclination

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of the United States to get involved under
President Obama which was remarkable and

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the intervention in the fall of 2005
joint surge an intervention by Russia

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Iran and Hezbollah 2015 in 2015
in the summer of 2015 Iranians

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including the late custom silly money
went to Moscow and presented maps and

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a scenario and basically told the Russians
look our mutual ally Assad is going to

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fall if we don't intervene
and so they came up with

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a joint plan of Russian Hizbullah and other
militias on the ground intervening with

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Russian air support and diplomatic cover
and intelligence and they did it. And it's

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swung the momentum and so on so it survives
so the other surprising thing is that

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Assad has not been overthrown once the
war was effectively won in most of the

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country by our side in the last gasp there
was the fall of Aleppo in 2016 once that

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happened I think the subsequent fall of
these de confliction zones which were

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basically rebel strongholds of which
I'd lived is the last one was kind of

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predictable and that point I think this
tragic situation kind of was foreseeable

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the surprising thing really is that Assad
won the war and that's sort of the

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biggest shock I think exactly the
bloodthirsty Bashar Assad not only remains in

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power but has been emboldened by outside
forces by Russia by Iran and its

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proxy militias and also of course the
inaction of the United States the reluctance

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to help the civilian and rebel forces but
let's go to today Moni I could be in the

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situation it's the last rebel stronghold
discuss what happened there why do you

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think the Syrian regime felt so in Bolden
to attack and what about Turkey's role

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Well again I think this is part of

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a plan that the regime has had Hussein
rightly points out it really started with

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Russia's intervention in the fall of 2015
that then facilitated the move on Aleppo

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which fell in 2016 and we're seeing essentially
the culmination of this strategy by

00:10:06
the regime to claw back territory and so
in many ways the current offensive is not

00:10:13
unsurprising there was deescalation
agreement that was negotiated between the

00:10:19
Russians and the Turks in the fall of 2017
that quieted things for some period of

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time but the regime and frankly Russia
behind it has made it clear that it is

00:10:31
essential that they retake and lead because
they live is very strategically located

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it is a buffer to lead

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a key. Which is really the Alawite stronghold
that's the minority sect from which

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the president comes it also
is an area through which

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a key strategic highway that runs this is
the m 5 Highway which is essentially sort

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of the I 95 of Syria if you I 95 being

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a major trans national highway here in the
United States Exactly and so in order

00:11:03
for us to really consolidate his hold
on power it is essential that he regain

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control of if not the entire government

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a large portion of it and that is what
we're seeing happen today the current

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offensive really dates back to April of
last year but then we've seen beginning in

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December

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a real increase in the level of
hostilities so much so that beginning in

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February of this year we've seen massive
displacement the largest single episode of

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displacement in the 9 year
conflict to date so nearly

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a 1000000 civilians forced
to be on the run from

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a very brutal offensive I do want to talk
about that but 1st let me get back to

00:11:50
Hussein it is for your take on the
importance of it live and where do we stand

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right now and what about the Turkish
Russian you know agreement and their

00:12:01
relationship is Russia

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a broker on behalf of both parties that
is Syria and Turkey or are they basically

00:12:08
doing by Shadow Assad's bidding How do you
say you know that Russia is the primary

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patron defender of Assad and Russia
is using this conflict not only to

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advance their interests and their presence
and to bolster their client Assad

00:12:25
they're also using it to assert their
domination over Syria as the main

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outside powered since the
fall of Aleppo there's been

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a competition between Iran and Hezbollah
on the one hand and right. On the other

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hand over who holds sway in Syria who is
the main color of shots other than Assad

00:12:44
who is dependent on all these outside
forces Well Russia is making it very clear

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it's Moscow it's not to her and they
can help on the ground they have

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a role but it's really Russia that gets
to decide I think when I was absolutely

00:12:55
right about the strategic location of

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a Dalit which makes it so important to
all the players and it has different

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significance for different ones for us it's
the 2 highways right there is the east

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west highway the m 4 which is now going to
be jointly patrolled I'm sure we'll get

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into that and the North-South one when I
was referring to which is the m 5 and they

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actually intersect in here in this very
kind of backward sort of town which is

00:13:23
strategically crucial because these highways
intersect right next to it and that is

00:13:29
now in the hands of the regime so what's
happened is that the m 4 is going to be

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shared by the m 5 and it's crucial phase
now in the hands of the Russians and the

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Syrian army the other thing is that
for Turkey it's the border area

00:13:42
a bit more to the north that's crucial to
them the Turkish interest is to 1st of

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all make sure that there is not

00:13:49
a strong Kurdish paramilitary presence in
northern Syria along the southern Turkish

00:13:55
border and that's been certainly since the
fall of Aleppo and even before that the

00:13:59
main interest of Turkey went away from
getting rid of Assad towards blocking

00:14:04
a major Kurdish presence there the other
thing is keeping Syrian refugees out of

00:14:09
Turkey because there is this sort of
concentric circles of fear of the Syrians and

00:14:15
so you've got you know the 1st circle is
Turkey and then beyond that Greece and

00:14:19
southern Europe and then beyond that the
rest of Europe and in the world so in

00:14:23
a certain sense Turkey is acting as the
front line for the entire west in keeping

00:14:28
Syrians ordinary Syrians many of them
children lots of them also women and these

00:14:32
are not fighters with guns just keeping
Syrian people out exactly but the problem

00:14:38
is. His Bashar al Assad sees anyone who
opposes him even innocent civilians women

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and children as somehow terrorists so
definitely one of the most interesting things

00:14:47
about this is that many of the people
have been displaced who are now in Jordan

00:14:52
Lebanon Turkey and elsewhere are said
does not want back in Syria he does not

00:14:58
really want these people to be repatriated

00:15:00
a lot of the people who've been displaced
are people who he would prefer never to

00:15:04
come back to Syria because
he sees them as part of

00:15:06
a natural opposition and they're mostly
Sunni Yes Mostly they are and they are also

00:15:12
I think while also doesn't want them back
they are also quite fearful of returning

00:15:17
so long as Assad is in power right and he
is part of the minority Alawite ethnic

00:15:22
religious group which is more Shia
oriented but before the irony is this was

00:15:28
a multi ethnic multi religious mosaic of

00:15:32
a country where Christians the Alawite and
Sony's really lived very harmoniously

00:15:37
even Syrian Jews and now it has devolved
into this terrible sectarian conflict

00:15:43
Absolutely I think that Syria will never
return we've even seen parts of the

00:15:48
country as it's called demographically
reengineered there have been episodes of

00:15:53
ethnic cleansing not just so nice but
certainly Sudanese from large parts of the

00:15:59
country Kurds from certain areas this
is in part when Turkey made one of its

00:16:05
incursions into northwestern Syria
a Kurdish dominant area called

00:16:09
a free and they were pushed out
of that area this is going to be

00:16:13
a long term multi-generational challenge
the extent to which Syria's social fabric

00:16:20
has been destroyed cannot be over
estimated and it will take generations

00:16:27
to sow that country back together again if
it's even possible and this is where the

00:16:32
comparison with Lebanon becomes you know
sort of unmistakable what we've seen in

00:16:36
a way is the Lebanon isolation of Syria but
writ large. And more brutally and more

00:16:40
more definitively yes I think that's right
I think you know back to when we were

00:16:44
talking about how this all began and Hussein
you saw it coming many of us didn't

00:16:49
and I think one of the things that we
didn't quite appreciate was the extent to

00:16:54
which for Assad as a member of

00:16:56
a minority sect the stakes were existential
they were existential from day one and

00:17:02
he proved that he would stop at nothing
that's right exclude using chemical weapons

00:17:07
absolutely not even will not remain in
power to remain in power because from his

00:17:12
perspective it was either he stays in power
or he dies and his whole community dies

00:17:18
I mean I'm sure he thinks that much of
his community thinks there would be

00:17:22
a mass expulsion or

00:17:24
a genocide against them if they lost but I
wonder if that would really have come to

00:17:30
pass Hussein it seems to me that he almost
like you said it was it will became

00:17:35
a self-fulfilling prophecy for him by
virtue of the way he attacked via you know

00:17:40
young guys in the beginning I don't think
this was driven by anti Alawite animus

00:17:45
you know over time that resentment
against the regime and the criminal gang

00:17:50
surrounding it and then the broader Arlo
it community has grown and now I think

00:17:56
various minority communities not just I
know it's also many Syrian Christians and

00:18:00
others are really fearful of what an
opposition victory might look like because

00:18:05
a the way extremists have come to dominate
the opposition especially Islamist

00:18:10
extremists of various stripes and again
that's something. You're and Russia have

00:18:14
worked very hard to make sure happen
absolutely they insisted on it and it happened

00:18:19
and then the 2nd thing is that the general
resentment that they fear correctly is

00:18:24
often and indiscriminate the well is poisoned
between different kinds of Syrians in

00:18:30
a way that's like Lebanon on steroids seems
that way and I still maintain it didn't

00:18:35
have to be that way down the ladder didn't
have to be all right we're going to take

00:18:38
a quick. Greg before we conclude the program
you're listening to Encounter on The

00:18:43
Voice of America my guests are Mona Jacobian
She's the senior advisor to the vice

00:18:47
president of Middle East
and Africa at the u.s.

00:18:51
Institute of Peace and Hussein he's senior
resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States

00:18:55
Institute in Washington and we're examining
the current political and humanitarian

00:19:00
crisis in Syria this is

00:19:02
a reminder that our encounter podcast is
available for free download on our website

00:19:06
at v.o.a.

00:19:07
News dot com slash encounter You may also
follow us on Twitter or connect with us

00:19:12
on Facebook at Carol cast away
here's a big shout out to

00:19:17
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00:19:22
home country on the air please send
us an e-mail to encounter at v.o.a.

00:19:25
News dot com or like us and leave

00:19:27
a comment on our Facebook page Well back
to our discussion back to you. To talk

00:19:34
about the humanitarian crisis we're
seeing the Syrian refugees over

00:19:39
a 1000000 as you said among whom where so
many innocents women children are they

00:19:44
still being blocked at the border with
Turkey we know that Turkey was threatening

00:19:49
not to let them in to turn them toward
Europe which could violate this agreement

00:19:53
between Europe and Turkey using that as
leverage help us understand the current

00:19:58
situation you're touching on perhaps one
of the most significant dimensions of this

00:20:03
conflict

00:20:03
a 1000000 people just since December 1st
forced out of their homes they are not

00:20:10
refugees but they are internally displaced
or they're called I.D.P.'s Syria has the

00:20:15
largest number of I.D.P.'s in the world
6200000 people there are another

00:20:21
5600000 refugees who have been forced
to leave Syria and seek safe haven

00:20:28
whether it's in Turkey which hosts the
largest number of refugees or Lebanon which

00:20:33
has the largest number of refugees per
capita in the world and this displacement.

00:20:38
ISIS poses

00:20:40
a generational challenge because as we
were talking earlier people are fearful to

00:20:45
return to Syria and so it
could be we're talking

00:20:48
a generation or more of these refugees
living in host countries but the host

00:20:55
countries themselves of course are growing
increasingly impatient with hosting so

00:21:01
many refugees in their midst and it's
important to know they're not in camps they

00:21:06
live in amongst the host
community I think this is

00:21:08
a key factor actually for president aired
on in Turkey and why it is that he's been

00:21:14
so bound and determined to not in allow any
more refugees to come into Turkey from

00:21:19
lead because of the large number of refugees
that they host and the political and

00:21:24
domestic tensions that that's now causing
in Turkey if you turn to Lebanon Lebanon

00:21:30
is on the verge of a financial meltdown
in an enormous crisis they also have

00:21:35
a lot of coronavirus in Lebanon and so how
is this little country going to be able

00:21:41
to contend with so many refugees at the
same time I think the international

00:21:48
community is very concerned that as tensions
in these communities grow whether in

00:21:54
Lebanon or in Turkey there will be

00:21:56
a move to try and forcibly return
Syrian refugees back into Syria and

00:22:03
that also would be disastrous I think one
of the Turkish ideas has been to create

00:22:09
what they call

00:22:10
a safe zone in northern Syria which
would basically eventually become

00:22:16
a kind of gigantic concentration camp for
refugees that cannot be repaid trade ins

00:22:20
the rest of Syria but are not allowed
out of Syria and it would really be

00:22:25
a kind of incredible nightmare of the Turks
are being driven by 2 factors one is

00:22:30
this refugee issue which is really serious
political and economic concern the other

00:22:34
is the exposure of Turkish troops 34 were
killed by. Russian bunker buster bomb

00:22:40
recently and that's what led up to the
cease fire that's in place now not the new

00:22:46
one but the one that's existed for

00:22:48
a couple of weeks and basically because
there are thousands of Turkish troops in

00:22:52
northern Syria and Russia controls the air
space they are incredibly vulnerable and

00:22:56
exposed Moreover there are 12 Turkish
posts all over it live and other parts of

00:23:02
Syria that are completely surrounded by
government controlled and allied forces

00:23:08
they were put there because of the deescalation
agreement 3 years ago that we were

00:23:11
talking about but now they're absolutely
exposed so the Turkish troops are

00:23:16
extremely vulnerable and that's the other
big concern and that's why Turkey made so

00:23:20
many concessions in the recent agreement
with Russia they really made huge

00:23:24
concessions and it's because they're over
extending they're exposed but I think

00:23:28
also Europe is implicated in this because
as we might recall in 2015 there was

00:23:35
a massive influx of refugees into
Europe about a 1000000 refugees there

00:23:40
a lot of people that connect that to the
rise of xenophobia and you know react some

00:23:44
people even connected to Bracks it and
what we've seen now is President erred on

00:23:50
turning toward Europe and saying hey if you
don't shoulder more of the burden here

00:23:56
I'm going to open the gates and in fact
he did open the border between Turkey

00:24:01
Turkey really is exactly and there are

00:24:03
a number of refugees caught in essentially
no man's land they've been fired upon

00:24:08
except for the Europeans are terrified
because they can't handle politically I

00:24:14
think the influx of more refugees they
don't want to handle it I don't want and I

00:24:19
think you know there are enough posed that
they could handle there enough your care

00:24:22
to fair fair enough that's

00:24:23
a very fair point I would agree with that
but I think what we're seeing though is

00:24:27
an inability for the Europeans and heir
to want to come to some sort of agreement

00:24:31
so President Erica one was in Brussels
earlier last week and there is

00:24:36
a future meeting planned between. Aired
on President MacLow of France Chancellor

00:24:42
Merkel of Germany and possibly even Boris
Johnson from Britain to try and see if

00:24:48
they can sort through more this issue is
it more financial assistance that the

00:24:52
Europeans can provide to Turkey and at
the same time the Europeans want more

00:24:58
ironclad guarantee is that Erda want won't
weaponize if you will the refugees and

00:25:05
send them again towards Europe I think the
sickest thing in this entire scenario

00:25:11
other than killing people is
the I think weaponization is

00:25:14
a good word the instrumental eyes ation
of millions of ordinary people the

00:25:19
proportion of women and children among
them is very high especially children at

00:25:22
least

00:25:22
a 1000000 of the 3000000 people are under
the age of 18 and almost all the parties

00:25:27
have weaponized these people the Syrian
government has the Turks have the Europeans

00:25:31
have in their own way the Russians have
the Iranians that it's one of the most

00:25:36
gruesome examples of ordinary human
beings being used as pawns in

00:25:40
a cynical chess game that I've seen in

00:25:42
a long time and I want to we have very
little time left so back to you what about

00:25:47
the u.s.

00:25:47
Role is there one in addition to that of Europe
because this crisis whether humanitarian

00:25:54
or political is having ramifications and
will have more serious implications we're

00:26:00
going to have more extremism resulting
from these pockets of refugees who through

00:26:05
no fault of their own are having
to flee we're just looking at

00:26:08
a ticking time bomb as well Absolutely and
I think that what's happened in Syria is

00:26:14
a reflection of the lack of u.s.

00:26:16
Leadership on these issues whether it's
on the issue of displacement and refugees

00:26:21
on the issue of human rights and the
transgression of those rights and I think in

00:26:26
many ways it is critical for the
United States to step up and take

00:26:31
a position of leadership on what's
happening in Syria we need to sort of take

00:26:35
a stand in the international community
to. Protect these civilians women and

00:26:42
children who will be met with quite an
onslaught will you get the last word because

00:26:47
it doesn't look too likely under the current
administration I think it's something

00:26:53
perhaps for the next administration to look
up on that rather pessimistic note I'm

00:26:57
afraid that is all the time we have on this
edition of encounter I'd like to thank

00:27:01
my guests Moni I could be an senior advisor
to the vice president of Middle East

00:27:04
and Africa at the u.s.

00:27:06
Institute of Peace and Hussein is Bush
senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf

00:27:10
States Institute in Washington encounter
was produced in Washington and thanks to

00:27:14
King Louis for booking our guests our
engineer was just into aids I'm Carol

00:27:19
Castillo join me again next week for
another encounter on the Voice of America.

00:27:40
From v.o.a.

00:27:41
Press Conference USA here's your
host Carol cash video. Welcome

00:27:48
to Press Conference USA on The Voice of
America joining me on the program is v.o.a.

00:27:54
Senior political analyst Brian Padden our
topic on this edition of the program the

00:28:00
primary process in u.s.

00:28:02
Presidential elections our guest one
of the foremost experts on how America

00:28:08
nominates its presidential
candidates Elaine k.

00:28:11
Mark Kay Mark specializes in American
electoral politics and government innovation

00:28:16
and reform in the United States and abroad
she's founding director of the Center

00:28:21
for Effective Public management and senior
fellow in the governance studies program

00:28:26
at the Brookings Institution that's

00:28:28
a prominent Policy Group here in Washington
Elaine Kay marks book primary politics

00:28:33
everything you need to know about how America
nominates its presidential candidates

00:28:38
is one of the most highly
regarded primers on u.s.

00:28:42
Primaries she has been

00:28:43
a member of the Democratic National
Committee where she serves on the Rules

00:28:47
Committee since 1997 and has served as

00:28:51
a so-called super delegate to 5 Democratic
conventions Elaine Kay Mark has

00:28:56
participated actively in 4 presidential
campaigns and 10 nominating conventions

00:29:03
including 2 Republican conventions
Elaine is one of the founders of the new

00:29:08
Democrat movement which helped to
elect President Bill Clinton and his

00:29:11
administration she served as senior policy
adviser to Vice President Al Gore as an

00:29:17
academic her research focuses on 21st
century government the role of Internet in

00:29:22
political campaigns homeland defense
intelligence reorganization and governmental

00:29:27
reform and innovation and Elaine k.
Mark joins us here at the v.o.a.

00:29:32
Broadcast Center in Washington Elaine
Welcome to the program thank you for having

00:29:36
me and I'm delighted to welcome my colleague.
Brian Patten Thank you well Elaine

00:29:42
1st I'd like to get your observations
of the Democratic primary process we're

00:29:48
witnessing of course President Trump is not
facing any viable Republican opposition

00:29:53
so we're following the Democrats after
Tuesday's primaries in Michigan Missouri

00:29:58
Mississippi North Dakota Idaho and Washington
state it seems like the momentum and

00:30:03
math favors former Vice President Joe Biden
and some analysts are saying is Bernie

00:30:08
Sanders didn't win
Michigan that would not be

00:30:11
a good sign for him going forward I'd like
to get your view of where the Democratic

00:30:16
primary process stands at this point I
think the 1st thing our listeners need to

00:30:20
remember is that the u.s.

00:30:22
Primary system is a sequential
system so what matters

00:30:26
a lot is the sequence of the contests
and each contests then builds on the

00:30:31
subsequent contests so what we're seeing
now is what we see almost always in the

00:30:37
modern nominating system which is

00:30:39
a winnowing out of the field we started
with an enormous field in January

00:30:46
we got rid of some people early on who
dropped out of their own volition I will

00:30:52
further shrunk the field as did New
Hampshire and Nevada and now we are down to

00:30:57
a 2 person race in that race it
looks like Joe Biden is building

00:31:03
a significant lead he is headwinds in
states that were surprising he won in

00:31:09
Michigan and 4 years ago Bernie Sanders
won in Michigan not only did Biden win in

00:31:14
Michigan but he won every demographic he
won the big cities where there's lots of

00:31:20
African-Americans he won the white wealthier
suburbs and he won the white working

00:31:27
class towns filled with auto workers so
he really has been sweeping across the

00:31:32
board and that's why
people think that he is

00:31:36
a significant chance to beat burn. The
Sanders in the nomination race will get more

00:31:41
about the Democratic primaries but let
me go back and ask you about the role of

00:31:46
primaries in the United States you said in

00:31:48
a recent article America's political
parties have relinquished their role in

00:31:52
choosing presidential candidates to

00:31:54
a degree on heard of in other major
democracies can you help us understand this

00:32:00
rather esoteric us primary process
until 1972 the process for

00:32:06
nominating the Democratic and the Republican
candidates for president was similar

00:32:12
to that that you would find in another
democracy in other words it was an internal

00:32:18
party process where in parliamentary
democracies for instance the party will have

00:32:24
its conferences they will select

00:32:26
a party leader the party leader basically
then becomes the head of state and so for

00:32:32
more than 100 years in the United States
from 831 all the way to 1972 we had party

00:32:39
conventions composed of party notables
party office holders elected officials and

00:32:45
they chose the presidential candidates
so it was an internal system that didn't

00:32:50
mean that it didn't change because various
people could take over the party at the

00:32:55
grassroots level but it was more similar
to other democracies beginning in 1972

00:33:02
and as a result of

00:33:03
a reform movement that came about after
the conflict in the Democratic Party over

00:33:08
the Vietnam War we started to have what
are called binding primaries so as we

00:33:15
saw in 2016 in the
Republican Party even though

00:33:20
a lot of Republican leaders at the time
did not want Trump to be their nominee in

00:33:26
fact went so far as not going to the
Cleveland convention the fact of the matter

00:33:31
was that they really couldn't do much about
it because the primaries were electing

00:33:36
delegates who were bound to
trump so. Similarly now we have

00:33:41
a process where the primary voters are
the ones that matter and the elected

00:33:46
officials and the party leaders have very
little power to determine who the nominee

00:33:52
will be when we're talking about this
year's process and we saw this in credibly

00:33:57
sharp coalescing around Biden
following or before Super Tuesday or

00:34:03
a number of states voted those moderates
dropping out of the race putting their

00:34:07
support behind Joe Biden seemed to kind
of give him momentum through which he is

00:34:11
now gaining

00:34:12
a clear majority Can you contrast that
process this year with what happened with

00:34:17
the Republicans in 2016 where President
Trump who was able to divide

00:34:22
a number of different moderate or conservative
Republicans in those races but they

00:34:28
did not drop out and therefore President
Trump was able to keep gaining the

00:34:32
majority of delegates and there is I guess

00:34:35
a different processes for Republicans and
Democrats where Republicans sometimes

00:34:40
take all the delegates who win the most in
the state can you kind of make sense of

00:34:44
all this for us you know what happened with
Trump's nomination in 2016 or 2 things

00:34:50
1st of all all the other candidates
practically stayed in race after race after

00:34:56
race even when they were losing they
stayed in and the anti Trump forces never

00:35:03
coalesced around an alternative nor did
the voters secondly is that the Democrats

00:35:09
use proportional representation to
award delegates the Republicans have

00:35:15
a variety of systems but they are more
winner take all which meant that with

00:35:20
a plurality of votes Trump was winning all
of the delegates and that helped him not

00:35:27
by this time necessarily but by the
end of March in 2016 Trump had

00:35:31
a substantial delegate lead and it just
kept growing but the fundamentals were that

00:35:38
the absent. Of

00:35:39
a clear alternative to trump allowed him
to win the Republican nomination even

00:35:45
though at the time lots of Republicans
were against him and everybody thought he

00:35:50
would lose the presidential election and
you think then the Democrats this year

00:35:55
were looking back and trying to learn from
what happened Oh absolutely I mean the

00:36:00
Democrats were quite cognizant of the
fact that if they stayed in for whatever

00:36:06
reasons primary after primary after primary
they were going to be taking votes away

00:36:12
from the person who was most likely to
beat Sanders and frankly most likely to be

00:36:17
Donald Trump and that was I think

00:36:20
a very important consideration in the minds
of the candidates as they dropped out

00:36:25
and I think it's been an important
consideration and we know

00:36:28
a little bit of this from exit polls in
the minds of the voters themselves you

00:36:32
referenced earlier the sequencing of
primaries many people now are talking within

00:36:37
the Democratic Party about seeing how
that could change we start with the Iowa

00:36:41
caucuses in New Hampshire These are states
that they're not very representative of

00:36:45
the Democratic demographic and they're
saying that it skews things and how do you

00:36:50
see it in why are those states go 1st could
that be modified what would it take to

00:36:55
modify that would that be for the better
well the national party has the authority

00:37:00
to set the calendar the Republicans
and the Democrats have agreed on

00:37:05
a calendar for over a
decade now this is been

00:37:08
a unusual point of cooperation between
the 2 parties I think what is likely to

00:37:13
happen in the future is not so much that
we will change the order of the states but

00:37:19
that we will not have 1st in the nation.

00:37:54
Which primaries are 1st I would have to
anticipate that New Hampshire would still

00:37:59
be 1st they've hung on for more than

00:38:01
a century I suspect they'll stay in there
and I would also intice bet that South

00:38:06
Carolina would remain early because of the
large black population on the Democratic

00:38:11
side but also on the Republican side
Republicans like the South Carolina primary

00:38:18
they have always seen it as

00:38:19
a place where staunch conservatives can
undo whatever nonsense happens in the

00:38:24
northern states so you
have both parties with

00:38:28
a fondness for South Carolina
being an early primary l.b.s.

00:38:32
For different reasons that seems odd in
the sense that South Carolina is not

00:38:37
a state that ever seems to
be in play it's always 'd

00:38:40
a Republican state it always has a
large African-American population but

00:38:44
a Democrat who wins South
Carolina does it with

00:38:47
a lot of African-American support and so
when the person kind of reinforces his or

00:38:51
her connection with that community but he
or she the Democratic candidate does not

00:38:55
win South Carolina so in your estimate
what state actually could give us kind of

00:39:01
the best 1st day insight into what who would
be most electable Well here you run up

00:39:08
against another issue is
the consensus has been for

00:39:11
a long time that there is some value
in having small states go 1st so

00:39:18
really representative states Well Illinois
is probably the most representative

00:39:23
state in the United States
it's a very big state with

00:39:27
a very big city in it but farmers in every
manufacturing and everything but the

00:39:32
countervailing value here is that people
like the idea that presidential candidates

00:39:39
have to campaign in

00:39:41
a state where they can actually campaign
with real live voters after you get out of

00:39:47
these early states the campaigns
are all in radio studios and t.v.

00:39:52
Studios the. Actual pressing of the flesh
is few and far between you just can't

00:39:58
campaign in California by shaking enough
hands it's physically impossible and so if

00:40:04
you're going to have an
early state you look for

00:40:07
a small state you're listening to Press
Conference USA on The Voice of America our

00:40:13
guest is Elaine k.

00:40:14
Mark she's founding director of the Center
for Effective Public management and

00:40:18
senior fellow in the governance studies
program at the Brookings Institution She's

00:40:22
author of the widely esteemed book primary
politics everything you need to know

00:40:26
about how America nominates its presidential
candidates I'm Carol Castillo along

00:40:32
with senior political analyst
Brian Padden this is

00:40:35
a reminder that our press conference USA
podcast is available for free download on

00:40:40
our website at v.o.a.
News dot com slash p.c.

00:40:44
USA You may also follow us on Twitter
or connect with us on Facebook at Carol

00:40:49
Castillo v.o.a.

00:40:51
Here's a shout out to one of our most
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00:40:55
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00:41:00
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00:41:03
News dot com or like us and leave

00:41:05
a comment on our Facebook page we're
back to our special guest Elaine k.

00:41:09
Mark talking about the Democratic primaries
the word delicate is very important

00:41:13
Elaine what is the role of the delegates
in our primary process Well the delegates

00:41:19
are kind of

00:41:19
a holdover from an earlier era when party
conventions nominated the presidential

00:41:26
candidates so in ordinary races in the
modern era that are settled in the primary

00:41:32
and everyone drops out and everyone goes
to the convention pledged to one candidate

00:41:38
the delegates role is to hold up those signs
and wear funny hats and cheer for the

00:41:44
candidate and boo the other party that's
what the delegates do what is lost in that

00:41:49
is that the delegates still do have the
final authority. In determining the

00:41:54
nomination the nomination
of a political party is not

00:41:59
a fully public activity it is

00:42:01
a party activity and so if for some
reason the primaries did not deliver

00:42:08
a clean verdict then those delegates would
actually have to decide who they were

00:42:15
going to be for on the 1st ballot they
were most likely to be for the candidate

00:42:19
that elected them but if for instance
it was a 3 way split and no one got

00:42:24
a majority on the 1st ballot then those
delegates would be released and who knows

00:42:30
who would become the candidate in the
old days we often had multi ballot

00:42:35
conventions as the coalitions within the
party sorted themselves out we're not used

00:42:41
to that these days we haven't seen a multi
ballot convention since 1952 So there's

00:42:47
a lot that we don't know about how that
would work in the modern day and age but

00:42:52
that would still happen and delegates would
still be important if in fact you went

00:42:57
beyond

00:42:57
a 1st ballot Well that leads me to ask you
about the delegates for the candidates

00:43:02
that threw their support behind Joe Biden
for example people to judge and Amy

00:43:07
closer Sharyn even Michael Bloomberg what
happens to their delegate count Well 1st

00:43:12
of all one weird thing to understand is
that this point in time there are simply

00:43:17
delegate allocations there are very few
real life people in those slots most of

00:43:23
these people get elected in April or May
to the extent that people are elected in

00:43:29
April or May Those people are sensually
free agents they can do whatever they want

00:43:34
to do they don't have to follow their
candidate Amy club which I delegate doesn't

00:43:39
have to vote for Joe Biden although you
could pretty much assume that they would

00:43:43
given the similarity between the 2
candidates and they are free agents in the

00:43:48
nomination process and there are

00:43:51
a lek did at the state conventions. In
summer elected that Congress district

00:43:56
conventions some are elected at state
conventions and most of those start to take

00:44:01
place in the spring in April and May By
the 2nd week in June the states have to

00:44:07
have finished electing the actual people
and they will be certified to the national

00:44:12
party and then credentials will be given
out to those people is that similar for

00:44:17
Republicans made out of the similar very
much very much the same Can I ask you

00:44:21
about the Michael Bloomberg experience
in the primaries he was late coming in

00:44:27
flooded the campaign airwaves with his
vast fortune spending hundreds of

00:44:31
$1000000.00 on ads hiring campaign staff
in many states and then showed very poorly

00:44:38
for all the money he spent what's the
lesson there well the lesson there is that

00:44:41
money can't buy politics at least at the
presidential level maybe at other levels

00:44:47
it can certainly not at the
presidency because people have

00:44:50
a very personal relationship to the president
and I think that Michael Bloomberg

00:44:56
when he was out on his own not
packaged with all his money had

00:45:00
a disastrous 1st debate people didn't like
him he didn't seem comfortable he didn't

00:45:06
seem warm he didn't even seem to really
be part of the party that was on stage

00:45:11
there was one very awkward
moment where he searched for

00:45:14
a word to refer to the other people on
the stage and he said Well my fellow

00:45:19
contestants I guess I'll call them now
anybody else would have said my fellow

00:45:25
Democrats so it was kind
of an indication of what

00:45:28
a flop that was I also think that advertising
particularly blanketing advertized

00:45:35
mean like he did and Tom Styer the other
billionaire in the race did I think voters

00:45:40
discount that Americans are very very cynical
about advertisements I mean we don't

00:45:46
go out and buy the car that has the
prettiest blonde standing next to the car I

00:45:52
mean we're very sophists. Ok to consumers
and we're very skeptical about ads and I

00:45:57
think political ads fall in that category
just as ads about washing machines or

00:46:02
cars do well they may be sophisticated
about ads and even cynical but I wouldn't

00:46:07
say that's the case visa v the Internet
in all kinds of dissin from Asian that we

00:46:12
are seeing I have seen very intelligent
people somehow fall for the just

00:46:17
information whether it's through the
Russians or other Americans that are

00:46:20
influenced by Russians pushing dense
information whether about Mr Biden or other

00:46:25
Democratic candidates in particular they
seem to be the targets so how do you see

00:46:30
that as an obstacle or a challenge as we
approach the 2020 lections I think it's

00:46:35
a huge challenge but I also have

00:46:39
a little bit more faith in the American
people it's like any weapon in war what do

00:46:43
we know from time immemorial the 1st
person to have the new weapon that's the

00:46:48
winner and then by the next time we fight

00:46:50
a war everybody has those guns or everybody
has those bow and arrows or everybody

00:46:55
has airplanes or whatever well it's sort
of the same thing here 2060 nobody saw

00:47:01
this coming nobody knew what it was nobody
understood what it was it wasn't until

00:47:05
we had the Mahler indictments that we
saw the extensive nature of the Russian

00:47:11
interference I think that with every
successive election people will get

00:47:16
a little bit more skeptical about what
they're hearing particularly if it seems

00:47:21
outrageous and I think that
we'll see that happening we saw

00:47:25
a little bit of what looks like Russian
interference in this primary campaign so

00:47:30
far it's no secret that there are 2
candidates have been Donald Trump and Bernie

00:47:35
Sanders So we saw

00:47:36
a little bit of that this time but I'm
sort of curious to see if next time

00:47:42
around it goes on answered part of it of
course was Hillary's campaign was slow to

00:47:49
understand what was happening this
ridiculous notion of pizza gate this. A

00:47:53
ridiculous message manufactured by the
Russians they thought it was so ridiculous

00:47:59
that why on earth should you talk about it
pizza Gate was the allegation that there

00:48:03
was this is so bizarre it kind of makes
me laugh just to say that the story was

00:48:08
that there was a pizza
parlor in Washington d.c.

00:48:11
And that in the basement of the pizza
parlor Hillary Clinton and her friends were

00:48:16
running

00:48:16
a pedophile ring now when none of us may
have even known about that except that

00:48:21
there was some poor sod in South Carolina
North Carolina who actually believed it

00:48:27
and came to Washington with

00:48:29
a gun ready to free the children who were
in this basement under the pizza parlor

00:48:34
and of course he was arrested and there
were no children there etc etc and he's

00:48:38
actually since apologized so that was kind
of bubbling out there but nobody thought

00:48:44
it was serious enough to answer it well
I hope you're right Elaine in being

00:48:48
cautiously optimistic but I'm seeing
this type of decision from Asian and

00:48:51
brainwashing infiltrate even among many
Republicans I'm not picking on them per se

00:48:56
but it seems that they're more susceptible
to this kind of decision from ation

00:49:00
promoting the propaganda of the Kremlin
that somehow it was Ukraine that interfered

00:49:05
in the 26000 election not the Russians
we saw that during the impeachment trial

00:49:09
mouthing the kinds of theories that are
propaganda that have been debunked yet

00:49:15
they're going mainstream This is what
concerns me well and it should but remember

00:49:20
what's really causing that to have some
legs as we say is the fact that the

00:49:26
president of the United States believes it
and propagates. If the president had not

00:49:31
been doing that then it might be

00:49:33
a little bit easier to discount as Russian
propaganda but when the president picks

00:49:39
it up and some of his allies in
Congress pick it up then it's

00:49:43
a very serious serious situation and when
we're seeing that more and more as as Mr

00:49:49
Biden becomes the from it

00:49:50
a bold front runner somebody that he's
afraid of running against and in fact that

00:49:54
was the reason he was impeached because
he tried to collect dirt on Mr Biden

00:49:58
through

00:49:59
a foreign country an ally and we know what
happened after that that's right this

00:50:04
year in the midst of the primary season the
coronavirus worldwide pandemic has been

00:50:10
spreading impacting some campaign events
recently is this an unprecedented

00:50:15
development and are you concerned that
it will have further impact on the

00:50:20
conventions than the election itself
Well I think that we are able to have

00:50:25
conventions and to have an election even
with the coronavirus I mean I think

00:50:31
there's ways to do that if need be we could
go to an electronic convention where we

00:50:37
cast votes electronically met cetera that
doesn't worry me as much I think however

00:50:43
it is having an enormous impact on the
president because to many people the

00:50:48
president is looking incompetent and out
of his depth and that is the sort of thing

00:50:55
that can really undermine his support in
the country up until this point Donald

00:51:00
Trump's presidency has been free of the
kind of crises that impact average

00:51:07
Americans he's had various crises overseas
etc but nothing that really hits home

00:51:13
with Americans and I think

00:51:14
a lot of Americans have liked his flamboyant
style and his just the way he likes to

00:51:20
stick it to people I think
that's been you know

00:51:23
a lot of people thought that was fun
all of a sudden we're faced with

00:51:26
a very different sort of situation where
reality matters. And leadership matters

00:51:31
and so far Donald Trump is not doing very
well at all Elaine back to this whole

00:51:37
primary process about which you've
written so extensively Do you have any

00:51:41
suggestions for an acting primary election
reform what are the biggest challenges

00:51:46
to an acting this type of reform and again
what suggestions do you have to improve

00:51:51
our current process Well I think that the
biggest problem with the current process

00:51:56
is that there is no peer review in the
process peer review is common in all

00:52:03
advanced societies when you go to

00:52:05
a neurosurgeon you want that neurosurgeon
to have been certified by other

00:52:09
neurosurgeons you don't want
your neurosurgeon having won

00:52:13
a popularity contest so peer review is

00:52:16
a very common element in the old system and
in democracies where you still have an

00:52:21
internal party process you have some element
of peer review because you have people

00:52:26
who are politicians who are in government
or have been in government they know the

00:52:32
individuals and they know that sorts
of things that you can't tell over the

00:52:36
television or in

00:52:37
a primary is this person serious are they
substantive are they able to grasp the

00:52:43
big ideas and all the complexities that
they would be faced with this president.

00:52:49
And we got rid of that when we went to
primary spry Mary voters and not because

00:52:54
they're dumb it's just that primary
voters simply can't make that assessment

00:52:58
because they don't see the candidates
up close and personal Other than in

00:53:03
a couple instances in those early states
and even then they're not seeing the

00:53:07
candidates in

00:53:08
a governing mode so what I would do is
keep all the primaries as it is but insert

00:53:15
some element of peer review maybe

00:53:18
a simple vote of confidence by the House
of Representatives by the people of your

00:53:23
own party in the house or in the Senate
or among the governors or among the

00:53:28
national committee people something that
will. Would keep our debate stages from

00:53:33
being crowded with people who have no
business running for president of the United

00:53:37
States and simply take up airtime from
more serious candidates isn't what the

00:53:43
Democratic Party did in installing
super delegates was in that kind of

00:53:48
a way to put some party oversight into
the process so that an extreme candidate

00:53:53
would have to overcome that hurdle to get
the nomination the Democratic Party has

00:53:57
superdelegates they are all Democratic
members of Congress all Democratic members

00:54:02
of the Senate all Democratic governors
all members of the Democratic National

00:54:06
Committee and that's what I am I'm

00:54:08
a member of the Democratic National Committee
and then I hand full of other people

00:54:12
like former presidents of the United
States so President Clinton and President

00:54:18
Jimmy Carter obviously get votes at the
convention the superdelegates were intended

00:54:23
to do just that the problem with the
superdelegates is they do not have

00:54:28
a formal role at the beginning of the
process and that's what I'm suggesting is

00:54:34
that we force them to have say something
they don't have to say I like this person

00:54:40
over this person they simply need to say
these people I think are capable of being

00:54:45
president and these people are not the other
reason to insert some element of peer

00:54:52
review is to reduce the number of
absurd policy statements that get made

00:54:59
that everybody who's had some experience
in government knows are just ridiculous

00:55:04
the big one being I'm going to build

00:55:06
a wall and make Mexico pay for it how on
earth was Donald Trump ever going to make

00:55:11
Mexico pay for a wall short of an all out
invasion of the country I mean it's just

00:55:16
a stupid statement everybody
knew that but it was

00:55:19
a great line in his rallies
and so I think that

00:55:23
a little bit of reality injected into
the policy positions of some of these

00:55:28
candidates would be

00:55:29
a big help. To the voters and as we close
Elaine any thoughts with respect to

00:55:34
bringing the Democratic Party together
let's assume Joe Biden achieves an

00:55:39
insurmountable number of delegates and
becomes the nominee do you see Bernie

00:55:42
Sanders getting behind Mr Biden and also
bringing his more youthful followers to

00:55:48
the side of Mr Biden I think if anybody
could do that it is Joe Biden Joe Biden is

00:55:54
not

00:55:54
a perfect candidate he stumbles around in
his words sometimes Ok sometimes he's not

00:56:00
as energetic as she would
have him be he's got

00:56:03
a long long history which some people pick
apart but the one thing that has kept

00:56:08
Joe Biden front and center in Washington
for almost 4 decades now is he is one of

00:56:14
the nicest men in Washington people love
Joe Biden and you can see that in some of

00:56:20
the body language on the debate stage he's
nice to Bernie and Bernie is nice to him

00:56:25
Bernie says things like Joe Biden is my
friend put it this way there's nothing

00:56:30
guaranteed but I think if anybody can do
it it is Joe Biden Elaine Kay Marc is

00:56:35
senior fellow in the governance studies
program at the Brookings Institution and

00:56:38
author of the acclaimed book primary politics
everything you need to know about how

00:56:43
America nominates its presidential candidates
Elaine thanks so much for coming in

00:56:47
thanks so much for having me both of you
press conference USA on The Voice of

00:56:51
America was produced in Washington thanks
to Ken Lewis for booking our guest our

00:56:56
engineer was Vasco volatile and
joining me on the program was

00:57:00
a senior political analyst Brian Padden I'm
Carol Castillo join me again next week

00:57:06
for another press conference
USA on The Voice of America.

00:57:41
It is feel way if I David for Spain
locked down its 46000000 citizens

00:57:48
in France order the clothes.

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