VOA [Voice of America] Global English : July 06, 2019 01:00AM-02:00AM EDT
Audio Preview
Share or Embed This Item
Flag this item for
audio
VOA [Voice of America] Global English : July 06, 2019 01:00AM-02:00AM EDT
- Publication date
- 2019-07-06
- Topics
- Radio Program
- Digitizing sponsor
- Internet Archive
- Contributor
- VOA [Voice of America] Global English
- Language
- English
Closed captions transcript:
00:00:00
Missional for human rights
Michelle Bachelet is shoot
00:00:03
a scathing report Thursday accusing Venezuela
security forces of more than $5000.00
00:00:10
killings last year our report notes attacks
against actual or perceived political
00:00:15
opponents and human rights defenders ranging
from threats and Smee have come to Ivy
00:00:21
Tried to the tension thought to an ill
treatment sexual but as killings and 4th
00:00:25
disappearance deputy foreign minister
William kiss Steele fired back saying that
00:00:30
the report failed to reflect the reality
in Venezuela and the Chinese premier
00:00:34
recently announced
00:00:35
a major economic reform move saying that
China would scrap ownership controls on
00:00:40
foreign companies investing in the financial
sector next year ahead of schedule the
00:00:44
government also will reduce restrictions
next year on market access for foreign
00:00:48
investors and the value added telecom
services and transport sectors according to
00:00:53
the premier more at V.O.A.
00:00:55
News Not com I'm Tommy McNeil via emails.
00:01:14
From Washington V.O.A.
00:01:16
Presents issues in the news going
to get. On the panel this week Dan
00:01:22
we'll want to respond in part to play
the respondent for the Los Angeles
00:01:29
Times and the moderator Michael
Williams contributor to C.B.S.
00:01:34
Radio in Washington welcome everyone here
are the issues Donald Trump became the
00:01:39
1st sitting U.S.
00:01:40
President to enter North Korea
stepping across the border during
00:01:44
a meeting at the demilitarized zone with
North Korean leader Kim Jong un president
00:01:48
Frank addressed the nation from the steps
of the Lincoln Memorial on America's
00:01:52
Independence Day amid
00:01:53
a show of military hardware and sorting
himself and controversy into the
00:01:57
celebration of
00:01:58
a national holiday. Ron announced that
it had exceeded its low enriched uranium
00:02:03
stockpile limit violating the amount agreed
to hold in the 2015 international deal
00:02:08
and sending
00:02:09
a pointed message to the trumpet ministration
thousands of demonstrators used the
00:02:13
22nd anniversary of Hong Kong's reunification
with China to break into the city's
00:02:18
legislative building in
00:02:19
a massive protest that drew the ire of
party leaders in Beijing and the situation
00:02:24
at the U.S. Southern border
continues to deteriorate as U.S.
00:02:28
Lawmakers visited detention facilities to
view the conditions and the Department of
00:02:32
Homeland Security began investigating
a report that current and former U.S.
00:02:37
Border Patrol agents are part of
00:02:39
a Facebook group posting racist sexist and
violent posts about migrants and Latin
00:02:45
American lawmakers Palace welcome and
hope you had that wonderful holiday Trump
00:02:51
entering North Korea Donald Trump
became the 1st sitting U.S.
00:02:54
President to enter the North Korea
stepping across the border across the
00:02:58
demilitarized zone shook hands with him at
00:03:00
a border village and then walked across the
demarcation line some are warning that
00:03:05
this is a dangerous sign
of raising the status of
00:03:08
a brutal dictator while others say that
this is a necessary step to creating
00:03:13
a trust with with North Korea for future
negotiations Dan will start with you I
00:03:18
thought interesting about how the meeting
was arranged not your typical diplomatic
00:03:21
situation very very personal style which
is what Donald Trump has of course where
00:03:26
he was in that part of the world he was in
Japan for the Group of 20 summit and he
00:03:30
wrote on Twitter I'm supposed to go to
South Korea tomorrow wouldn't it be
00:03:34
a really neat idea if I went
to the border the D.M.Z.
00:03:37
The demilitarized zone and Kim Jong un
would come from the capital of North Korea
00:03:41
and we'd shake hands at the border just
shake hands that's kind of what the tweet
00:03:45
said it was very casual It seemed to all
appearances North Korea like the idea and
00:03:51
so Kim you know took the trip we don't
know at least I don't know if in the
00:03:54
background in fact more standard in
conventional things happen to our officials
00:03:59
have to talk. Clearly the Secret Service
had to talk to some security guards and
00:04:03
arrange it etc but it looked like an
instant idea in other words it looked like
00:04:08
a T.V.
00:04:08
Show like an episode of The Apprentice or
something the show that Donald Trump used
00:04:12
to host and he loves that kind of event
and if you just think about the various
00:04:16
things he did during the week
including here in Washington D.C.
00:04:18
But that one at the start of the week like
wow watch the political impact it just
00:04:22
tells me that the process of Trump still
trying to charm North Korea into making
00:04:29
a nuclear agreement continues there were
2 summits one in Singapore one and Hanoi
00:04:34
the one hand away early this year apparently
failed but Trump really wanted to keep
00:04:38
that effort alive and so he used the personal
approach to do so and both sides say
00:04:43
that committees now will restart talks
Treasury Yes I think the most important
00:04:48
thing again once once again we
saw Trump giving Kim Jong in
00:04:52
a in an incredible publicity gold you
know. This is very good for Kim at
00:04:59
home he again looks like he's at
the status of a world leader and
00:05:03
a nuclear power frankly I think the best
thing that can come from this is if the 2
00:05:08
sides do actually start to negotiate which
they haven't yet really there haven't
00:05:12
been serious talks so if this is
00:05:14
a reset and they and the 2 sides do sit
down they've agreed to appoint working
00:05:20
committees the U.S.
00:05:21
Already has an envoy to do this
that could be a good thing
00:05:25
a positive outcome however even within the
administration there are differences on
00:05:30
how to deal with North Korea and these
divisions became very clear after this
00:05:35
meeting there are some in terms of
ministration like John Bolton the national
00:05:39
security adviser who does not want to
negotiate with North Korea at all while
00:05:44
others including Trump himself want
00:05:46
a deal so we'll have to see but the important
thing is that after 2 years they're
00:05:50
really just at square one Tracy isn't it
true however that the Trump administration
00:05:54
may no longer demand full denuclearization
the North Korea give up its nuclear.
00:06:00
Bombs and it's potential
and there could be
00:06:02
a compromise that would be very different
from what Donald Trump demanded for oh
00:06:06
indeed now they have they have
rolled back their demands quite
00:06:09
a bit since January they're the main on
the light has been saying that this is
00:06:14
actually going to have to be more of
00:06:15
a step by step reciprocal process although
they don't like to use that word so it
00:06:19
is very possible there will be an interim
deal that yes that allows him to keep his
00:06:24
nukes for now as they continue to talk
officially They're still demanding
00:06:29
disarmament but clearly they're willing to
settle for less military back that John
00:06:33
Bolton did push back on that story saying
that there was no truth to it but it was
00:06:36
New York Times reporting that said
that there was some that the U.S.
00:06:39
May have gone softer well that there was
something some sort of publicly commented
00:06:42
to that effect so I think I don't think
it's just that story I think we've seen
00:06:46
signs as I say all on here I would
say this when you have the U.S.
00:06:50
Negotiating with North Korea on this level
and I prefer to Iran what does it say
00:06:54
about Iran's nuclear ambitions are going
to talk about that later when you had the
00:06:58
2 situations which seem to be somewhat
similar being treated so differently Well
00:07:02
yes well the president is trying to reach
out to Iran as leaders suggesting that he
00:07:07
would sit down with the ayatollah as
government as well and he has predicted Donald
00:07:11
Trump has predicted that
Iran will come to the U.S.
00:07:15
To negotiate Trump thinks that he is
strangling Iran's economy to such an extent
00:07:21
that Iran will want to New Deal and that
deal the Trump administration has said
00:07:25
would not only be about nuclear weapons
and that Iran will never develop them but
00:07:30
also limiting their long range missiles
and also Iran's behavior that measurable
00:07:36
etc and would Iran ever ever really change
its quote behavior of supporting various
00:07:42
Shiite Muslim movements and groups that
we certainly consider to be terrorist
00:07:45
groups but Trump thinks that he can charm
the Iranians that charm offensive hasn't
00:07:50
achieved any results yet so we see China
North Korea Iran we've seen the charm
00:07:55
offensive type of diplomacy by trying to
put all 3 of those nations there in the. 7
00:08:00
to 10 days can the administration point to
00:08:02
a success on any level I
open it up to both of you
00:08:05
a clear when we using
that policy I don't see
00:08:08
a clear win I mean there they are talking
China and the United States are talking
00:08:13
for now they are sort of
00:08:14
a freeze in that trade war perhaps there
will be some progress there what's
00:08:19
interesting about Iran and the message
they may take from this is that you're
00:08:22
better off having a nuclear bomb
than not because they don't have
00:08:27
a nuclear bomb Iran North Korea does that
North Korea is getting the you know the
00:08:31
star treatment and Iran is being you
know punished and sanctioned and so one
00:08:37
message that's dangerous
00:08:39
a message from this is that Iran may be
saying hey we better go ahead and develop
00:08:42
a bomb and then we'll get more respect it
would seem to incentivize them to want to
00:08:46
continue their nuclear program rather than
to halt or diminish well that fits into
00:08:49
one of your headline stories of the week
that President Hassan Rouhani of Iran said
00:08:54
that we are going to exceed the limits
from the nuclear accord of the year 2015
00:08:59
we're not just going to create to
enrich low enriched uranium more
00:09:05
a quantity greater than the treaty allowed
the chordal out but in addition we're
00:09:10
going to enrich uranium to even more
powerful degrees whatever it is we want and
00:09:15
then your headline you said
that's a message to the U.S.
00:09:17
But I think everyone
needs to understand it's
00:09:20
a message to the European countries that
signed on to the nuclear record Britain
00:09:25
France and Germany I would just put it
this way Iran wants the Europeans to help
00:09:30
get around US economic sanctions to save
your runs economy I think that's President
00:09:35
Rouhani is demand what he really proceed
to this and Richmond level we're starting
00:09:40
to hear military threats for instance from
Israel if Iran with their to do that I
00:09:45
think we're hearing military threats from
the president of United States as well
00:09:48
who say that Iran is playing with fire did
you know that they'll be obliterated if
00:09:52
they if they attack us similar rhetoric
the Europeans have tried to create
00:09:57
a mechanism to get around USA. Actions but
it's really hard to try to to do trade
00:10:03
outside of the U.S.
00:10:05
Dominated global global financial system
so but you still have Russia and China who
00:10:09
are also signatories to the to the nuclear
deal but they seem to take Iran's side
00:10:14
they've said they are to take reading on
site that they have both of them China and
00:10:16
Russia said it's regrettable that Iran
has announced it's going to exceed the
00:10:21
limits in effect break the Accord of 2015
but both China and Russia blamed the
00:10:26
United States for stirring up the tension
for walking away from the deal and adding
00:10:30
new sanctions what the Iranians are saying
actually is that they have not breached
00:10:35
the deal because any time there is
00:10:37
a dispute about what has happened you
haven't breached the deal until there is
00:10:40
a meeting that says that investigates and
discovers and they're saying that well
00:10:44
maybe we did maybe we didn't but we haven't
officially breached it until we have
00:10:47
the meeting that says that very legal listing
very nitpicky it inside baseball but
00:10:52
you know again I think it's
00:10:54
a matter of message sent to
both sides with you that is
00:10:57
a strong message to get to the Europeans
that they need to be on point in brokering
00:11:01
this deal and the European governments
really want to preserve the nuclear accord
00:11:04
but you know there are trump administration
officials are say this is the decision
00:11:08
for Britain France and Germany are
you going to work with the U.S.
00:11:12
Or are you going to work with Iran the
White House claims it's giving Europe
00:11:15
a choice it's not really that stark but
that's the way they're putting it are we
00:11:19
closer today to open conflict between the
United States and Iran Well yes we are
00:11:25
compared with
00:11:25
a few weeks ago but the nuclear reason is
just part of the picture that Iran might
00:11:31
be enriching more uranium and
that's seen as dangerous or
00:11:34
a violation but of course the situation in
the Arabian or Persian Gulf it with the
00:11:39
threat with the attacks
on shipping with the U.S.
00:11:42
And others saying that Iran or Iranian
backed forces attacked some of the oil
00:11:46
tankers that were in that very important
shipping lane and the man shooting down
00:11:50
a U.S. Drone U.S.
00:11:52
Drone where President Trump and for President
Trump said that he decided in fact to
00:11:56
attack a target in Iran in
response to Iran. Shooting down
00:12:00
a drone and then when he learned that
probably 150 Iranians would die said no
00:12:05
that's not worth it that's not reciprocal
so I think Barry was trying to get kind
00:12:09
of to be
00:12:09
a nice guy Iran wouldn't you rather
negotiate again so far no results but let's
00:12:14
keep in mind one other thing when the goshi
actions have occurred between the U.S.
00:12:18
And Iran they've always started secretly
in other places like Cuba Switzerland or
00:12:24
Oman so we don't know everything going
on very important point out again is the
00:12:28
diplomatic corps actually activated and
working within this administration Tracy
00:12:33
that's your Because the diplomatic corps
doing anything complicated is always
00:12:36
a question mark because I think the State
Department has been so sidelined in so
00:12:41
many foreign policy issues that it is
00:12:44
a big question mark to what extent they
are involved they're certainly not so
00:12:48
involved in the Middle East the Israeli
Palestinian Mideast peace process many of
00:12:54
the veteran State Department employees
diplomats foreign service officers have left
00:12:59
or been driven out of the
department we're going to take
00:13:01
a break right there and then we'll be back
with more issues in the news issues in
00:13:05
the news is coming to you from the Voice
of America in Washington if you would like
00:13:10
to download the program it's free on i
Tunes Just click on the i Tunes tab on our
00:13:15
website at the News dot com While you're
there go ahead and check out our other
00:13:20
presidents press conference where they
encounter also visit us on Facebook and
00:13:26
leave
00:13:26
a comment or 2 then my current affair with
downtown Seattle now back to our panel
00:13:33
Dan Murphy senior Washington correspondent
for 24 news Tracy Wilkinson
00:13:38
correspondent for The Los Angeles Times
and our moderator is Michael Williams
00:13:43
contributor to C.B.S.
00:13:45
Radio in Washington. Welcome
back President Trump changed the
00:13:51
commemoration of America's
Independence Day
00:13:53
a little bit this year the 4th
of July commemorates America's
00:13:56
a declaration of independence from Britain
in the establishment of the United
00:13:59
States has. Independent Nation presidents
in modern times have chosen to mark
00:14:03
America's birthday by participating in
00:14:06
a very small quiet again apart from the
main celebration which takes place in
00:14:11
Washington D.C.
00:14:12
On the national mall trying to do
it very differently incorporating
00:14:16
a military parade
00:14:18
a speech that lasted much longer than I
thought it would military flyovers and the
00:14:23
like some of you Tracy did it very very
differently and I think we know why but I
00:14:28
still like to hear you say. Well I'm not
sure what you want me to say however there
00:14:34
was
00:14:34
a lot of concern that he would turn this
into one big political campaign rally as
00:14:38
as most of his public appearances tend
to be he refrained some want from the
00:14:43
partisan rhetoric yet he did sort
of doom himself in the trappings of
00:14:49
patriotism and I'm sure we will see
scenes from this in his campaign ads even
00:14:55
people from the military were concerned
that he was using them the military as
00:14:59
props and that he did and I think that's
that's where the fallout is again Trump
00:15:05
does things his own way and this was yet
another example do you think this would
00:15:10
have happened and if John Kerry anytime
McMaster was still in the in the
00:15:13
administration well frankly yes I mean
you're thinking of the previous chiefs of
00:15:16
staff and the Trump White House President
Trump is the one who decides what to do
00:15:20
but especially when it comes to these
kind of made for television events the
00:15:24
president likes optics and so it's sort
of well known that he was in Paris and he
00:15:28
was at
00:15:29
a bus steel Day parade nearly 2 years ago
and he really liked that military parade
00:15:34
on the shelves that he's
00:15:35
a and he said why don't we do that in
Washington and so he has wanted to do that
00:15:39
one version of that was basically scrubbed
because it was going to be too expensive
00:15:43
and so he got around to this version that
people gather anyway on the 4th of July
00:15:50
America's birthday on the National
Mall So why doesn't he create
00:15:54
a little television event at one end of the
mall now actually at local time it was
00:15:59
a. 6 30 pm for about an hour usually nothing
goes on then the fireworks show was
00:16:04
later at 9 pm after sunset so it was an
extra event that required extra security
00:16:10
some people thought it was bad taste that
he ordered that tanks be parked in front
00:16:16
of the Lincoln Memorial to some that
looks like some military takeover of
00:16:20
Washington D.C.
00:16:21
But he was framing the whole event as
00:16:23
a salute to America's military again people
said why on July 4th and so his long
00:16:28
somewhat droning speech
for about an hour was
00:16:31
a history of the military punctuated by
flyovers aircraft of the various military
00:16:36
services going overhead it rained people
did come out in massive numbers I bet you
00:16:42
he wasn't that satisfied with the had
only not but in the great yeah one of the
00:16:46
criticisms is that the 4th of July does not
commemorate the United States military
00:16:51
victory It commemorates the Declaration of
Independence democracy the beginning of
00:16:56
yet the idea of American items that were
in the ideals ideals that some argue Trump
00:17:01
is not always respecting So one of the
criticisms was that he's emphasizing the
00:17:05
wrong thing that all women who have never
met him but who who ever wrote his speech
00:17:09
did say that the military and war after war
from 776 till now has been fighting for
00:17:16
values and freedom and defeating ISIS
recently and that sort of thing you know he's
00:17:20
entitled to say what he wants to say he's
the commander in chief he's the elected
00:17:24
president he had this
event that cost I guess
00:17:26
a few $1000000.00 I don't think there
was any harm to his critics against
00:17:32
a really bad taste very narcissistic simply
about him and his supporters apparently
00:17:37
kind of like that but as I say
nobody harm anyone else have
00:17:41
a problem or an issue with
the fact that a president
00:17:44
a person who has spent considerable
time you want to avoid
00:17:47
a military service sort of wrapping himself
in the flag and patriotism and in the
00:17:53
military my reaction in watching
it there was even a call there was
00:17:57
a recruitment call during the speech for
people you should join us. In the military
00:18:00
quick reminder in his defense he has recently
explained why he didn't serve during
00:18:06
the Vietnam War in the 1970 S.
00:18:08
He didn't admit that anything about his
medical excuse was false but he said I
00:18:13
didn't like that war knowing that in general
Americans they don't know what they're
00:18:17
not sure that makes me feel really bad about
it right now not sure if you feel any
00:18:20
better about it but again that was an
issue that I was going to see just what I
00:18:25
wanted to talk about the sort of the general
wisdom of politicizing these types of
00:18:28
events because it wasn't
00:18:30
a political speech it wasn't I
think at worst it could have been
00:18:33
a campaign rally it is certainly not
Democrat did not turn into that at all but
00:18:37
isn't there a fact that any time
00:18:39
a president shows up an event
like this because we do have
00:18:42
a 2 party system it is politics he's elected
by political process that kind of His
00:18:47
presence turns it into
00:18:49
a political event which is why most presidents
stay away in the 1st place although
00:18:52
a better
00:18:53
a vent would be if the Democrats who are
among the leaders of Congress would also
00:18:58
be there as well as the Republican who is
the president in some United event but
00:19:04
this is what I listeners around
the world need to know this it's
00:19:07
a very divided country right now politics
here intrude on absolutely everything and
00:19:13
I don't think Democrats were invited in
if they had been I'm not sure they would
00:19:16
have gone and didn't disappoint but again
get the creation of the division let's
00:19:22
move on to the protests in Hong Kong 12
arrests have been made following protests
00:19:27
in Hong Kong where demonstrators stormed
the legislative building part to protest
00:19:32
Hong Kong Leader Kerry lamb and
00:19:34
a proposed extra extradition law Denys
everything you were you were you surprised
00:19:39
by the intensity of the protest I was
surprised by the intensity of it well I've
00:19:44
been in Hong Kong and I lived there for 5
years they are in so since the handover
00:19:48
to Chinese administration it's
been uncomfortable now for
00:19:53
a bit over 20 years where there's
00:19:55
a promise of 2 systems that Hong Kong in
effect could keep some of its freedoms
00:19:59
that it. That under British rule and I So
I think this is been boiling under the
00:20:02
surface and so someone in Beijing decided
to try something strong let's have an
00:20:09
extradition law that
anyone who's convicted of
00:20:11
a crime in Hong Kong might be sent
to a Chinese prison or accused of
00:20:15
a crime and then tried in China yeah it's
00:20:19
a shocker to anyone in Hong Kong and so I
think Beijing was trying it to see how
00:20:23
Hong Kong would react boy they saw they
got to answer yeah very very quickly Yeah
00:20:28
and I think they're saying that the
Chinese government right now is becoming
00:20:32
increasingly authoritarian and much more
restrictive and so I think people in Hong
00:20:37
Kong are sort of in a bit of
00:20:39
a panic about that one point I wanted to
make is that you have not heard any kind
00:20:44
of great voice of support from the
trumpet ministration for the Hong Kong
00:20:48
protesters you know here's a you know
00:20:50
a glowing example of democracy in action
and you've not heard any support from this
00:20:55
administration didn't praise and he
was asked once about the meadow What
00:20:58
a shame but he doesn't like disorder
industries actually and I think again that is
00:21:03
his friendship with President Xi that he
does not want to say anything that will
00:21:08
offend his his buddy his body exactly
let's move to the situation at the U.S.
00:21:13
Southern border members of the U.S.
00:21:15
Congress saw firsthand the conditions at
the detention centers the border patrol is
00:21:19
investigating reports that current and
former Border Patrol agents are part of this
00:21:23
Facebook group that are posting very violent
types of posts about migrants and U.S.
00:21:29
Lawmakers of Latin American Heritage
Dictionary through the conditions that we saw
00:21:34
there in the response by the
lawmakers was quite quite strong OK
00:21:37
a couple of things again huge political
divisiveness over this issue as well about
00:21:41
that Facebook Group
00:21:42
a private group where apparently hundreds
of people who work for the Border Patrol
00:21:47
agency C.B.P.
00:21:48
Customs and Border Protection take part in
their off hours they write nasty things
00:21:52
they mock the migrants they're racists etc
There's a promise from the agency C.B.P.
00:21:57
That they will be disciplined it's
unacceptable so we'll see. In the world of
00:22:00
social networking and the Internet that
happens people write of noxious terrible
00:22:04
things because people have been arriving
in very large numbers sometimes $100000.00
00:22:09
per month this year and here's the political
division part Democrats in Congress
00:22:14
have been visiting the facilities in Texas
Florida and saying that the that the
00:22:18
conditions are horrible the word from
the Trump administration as well and
00:22:22
President Trump even tweeted this if the
migrants don't like the conditions they
00:22:25
should stop coming and in many cases he
wrote for these migrants the conditions in
00:22:30
the facilities are much better than what
they have in their home countries so he's
00:22:35
rejecting all the complaints
and he's trying to send
00:22:37
a message just stop coming problem solve
don't come to America the Democrats
00:22:42
including those running for president more
than 20 men and women they assume that
00:22:46
Democrat voters liberals will care about
the migrants frankly President Trump
00:22:52
assumes that his base doesn't care about
the migrants and wants them to stay away
00:22:56
it's like take the same set of facts and
the 2 sides read them totally differently
00:23:01
and yet there's there's not caring about
in there's open contempt for you see when
00:23:05
President Trump has beat
00:23:06
a little amnesty claims saying that they're
all crock and they're faking that you
00:23:10
know I've spent
00:23:10
a lot of time in Central America and I know
the conditions these people are fleeing
00:23:14
and I think they have I think in many cases
very legitimate claims but I think the
00:23:18
more important thing here is that while
Trump is saying we'll go back to where you
00:23:22
came from he's cutting money U.S.
00:23:25
Aid to those countries so you know everyone
says and this is true when it we lose
00:23:30
sight of it that the root causes you know
the factors that push people need to be
00:23:36
addressed El Salvador had one of the highest
homicide rates in the world and threw
00:23:41
us
00:23:42
a and improving the police forces they've
actually brought down that homicide rate
00:23:47
down President Trump takes
00:23:48
a unique view of it absolutely previous
American presidents realize they are felt
00:23:52
they had to give foreign aid to those
countries we're talking especially about El
00:23:55
Salvador Guatemala and Honduras and President
Trump says those countries. Helping
00:24:00
us at all on cutting off the money in our
recent indications by the way or that the
00:24:03
money may start flowing again because the
president has openly thanked and praised
00:24:08
the government of Guatemala for doing
something so now he may be willing to pay
00:24:12
money again or get money and of course
he's praising Mexico only about
00:24:17
a month ago he was threatening tariffs on
all products made in Mexico unless Mexico
00:24:21
help stop the migrants Now President Trump
has decided to announce Mexico is doing
00:24:25
a lot because I push them if you have the
Democrats and they seem to be taking an
00:24:32
open borders type of position when you when
you listen to them sort of tangentially
00:24:35
you don't really hear anything other than
open borders not really coming up with
00:24:38
a solution for the problem or send it
that the conditions are deplorable and I
00:24:42
think anybody can objectively see
that but if they don't come up with
00:24:45
a solution for this problem
is that potentially
00:24:49
a death knell for that he may be noted
entering the presidential election campaign
00:24:52
next year when it's one Democrat against
Donald Trump and Donald Trump will keep
00:24:57
hitting them on that notion the Democrats
want open borders meaning that they want
00:25:01
crime they don't want to enforce the laws
they won't change the laws he'll keep
00:25:05
hitting the Democrats but right now the
candidates for the White House they think
00:25:09
if they're Democrats that the best thing
to do is to say we want to be nice to the
00:25:13
migrants we don't want to have round ups
we don't want to have the arrests that are
00:25:16
currently being threatened by President
Trump that helps you win the nomination
00:25:20
later you move toward the center that's
the way politics usually works are
00:25:24
absolutely right that's all the time
that we have for this week thanks to Dan
00:25:27
receive senior Washington correspondent
for 24 news and Tracy Wilkinson
00:25:32
correspondent for The Los Angeles Times
this program is produced by video ways Kim
00:25:36
Lewis our engineer is just in Thwaites
And I'm Michael Williams thanks for
00:25:41
listening.
00:26:13
From V.O.A.
00:26:14
. Press Conference USA here's your host.
00:26:21
According to independent
analysis by NASA and the U.S.
00:26:24
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Earth's global surface temperature
00:26:29
in 2018 was the 4th warmest since 1080
Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies
00:26:36
says 18 of the 19 warmest years during
that time all have occurred since 2001 the
00:26:42
central aim of the Paris agreement within
the United Nations framework on climate
00:26:47
change is to bolster the world's poorest
bonce to the threat of climate change by
00:26:51
keeping
00:26:52
a global temperature rise of this century well
below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
00:26:57
levels the pact also encourages efforts
to limit the temperature increase even
00:27:02
further to no more than $1.00 degrees
Celsius so why is keeping the global
00:27:07
temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees
Celsius so important according to the
00:27:12
Climate Reality Project
00:27:13
a nonprofit organization focused on climate
change 1.5 degrees is right about the
00:27:19
point that scientists project will see
some of the climate impacts we already see
00:27:24
today begin to go from bad to outright
terrify the organization also says it's
00:27:29
about the point where we'll likely see
many natural systems begin to cross
00:27:33
dangerous points of no return triggering
lasting changes and transforming life as
00:27:38
we know it scientists have determined
that Earth is already one degree Celsius
00:27:43
above pre-industrial levels of the early
to mid 18 hundreds while these numbers and
00:27:48
statistics related to global warming and
climate change may not mean much to most
00:27:53
of us
00:27:53
a new bestselling book by David Wallace
Wells writes about how when increasingly
00:27:58
warming planet will come to affect humanity
and less dramatic measures are taken
00:28:03
very soon the book is called the uninhabitable
earth life after warming they've had
00:28:09
Wallace Wells joins us today via Skype. To
talk about his book and as well as what
00:28:14
life on Earth would be like should we
reach that point of no return David the
00:28:19
opening line to your book The uninhabitable
earth life after warming is it's worse
00:28:24
much worse than you think What did you mean
by this and did you purposely use it to
00:28:30
set the tone of what was to come in your
book yeah absolutely what I meant was sort
00:28:34
of 3 fold which is to say that I felt coming
to the subject myself that there were
00:28:39
3 big misunderstandings that I had about
climate change that I'd been given by the
00:28:43
way that we talked about climate that we
are journalists reported our advocates and
00:28:48
policymakers talked about it and I
wanted to sort of correct those 3
00:28:51
misunderstanding so they were to take them
in order the 1st was about the speed of
00:28:55
change you know I have been raised I would
say to believe that climate change is
00:28:59
really slow that it was something that
would be unfolding over decades if not
00:29:02
centuries we often talked about it as
00:29:05
a legacy of the industrial
revolution and James Hansen is
00:29:08
a quite alarmist outspoken climate
scientists the name of his book for general
00:29:12
audiences storms of my
grandchildren which gives you
00:29:15
a sense of you know this
is quite far away and as
00:29:17
a result I think you could
naturally assume that we had
00:29:20
a lot of time to grow our way out of it
to innovate our way out of it but in fact
00:29:23
half of all of the emissions that we put
into the atmosphere in the entire history
00:29:27
of humanity from the burning of fossil
fuels have come in just the last 30 years
00:29:30
which means we're doing this damage really
dramatically in real time that's 30
00:29:34
years a since Al Gore published his 1st
book on warming it's since the U.N.
00:29:37
Established its I.P.C.C.
00:29:39
Climate change panel and I'm 36 years old
so it's my life contains that story as
00:29:43
well when I was born the planet was in the
squad stable situation scientists were
00:29:47
a little bit worried about the medium term
and long term future for climate change
00:29:51
but in the near term everything was OK and
now we are on the brink of catastrophe
00:29:54
and that is because of what we've done
just in the last 30 years there was
00:29:58
a report that came out today that we
have you know not only are we reached
00:30:01
a record high for carbon concentration in
the atmosphere but in the last year 28000
00:30:06
we actually grew our carbon concentration
at the fastest rate on record which means
00:30:11
that we're doing this down. More
quickly every year this isn't just
00:30:14
a matter of our not moving fast enough
to reverse the trend of carbon emissions
00:30:17
where we're doing more damage every year
than the year before so we're really doing
00:30:20
this damage quite quickly and the
story of climate change as a whole is
00:30:24
a real time rapid story that was the 1st
big misunderstanding the 2nd one was about
00:30:28
scope so I heard
00:30:30
a lot about Arctic melt and sea level rise
and I think most people who did could
00:30:34
feel that if they'd lived anywhere but the
coast that they were relatively safe and
00:30:37
even if they lived on the coast they could
probably move away from it and still be
00:30:40
OK but the more that I started to learn
about the economic impacts which threaten
00:30:45
a global G.D.P.
00:30:46
They could be 30 percent smaller than it
would be without climate change by the
00:30:49
year 2100 if we don't change course as an
impact it's twice as deep as the Great
00:30:52
Depression and it would be permanent
the more I learned about the effect on
00:30:55
agriculture yields which could be half as
down to full as they are today and we'd
00:30:59
be using those yields to fuel maybe 50
percent more people the more I learned about
00:31:03
the effect of violence where we could have
twice as much war as we have today if we
00:31:07
don't change course because there's
00:31:08
a relationship between temperature and
conflict the impact on public health where
00:31:12
already 9000000 people are dying every
year from air pollution that's related to
00:31:16
the burning of fossil fuels not to mention
the extreme weather the hurricanes the
00:31:19
500 year storm sitting every year the
wildfires burning through huge portions of
00:31:23
California every year the more
I started to see that this was
00:31:25
a totally only compassing story not
something you could compartmentalize or
00:31:29
localize and get away from
and so I think we had
00:31:32
a kind of basic misunderstanding about the
scope of the story which enclosed all of
00:31:35
us no matter where we were and then the 3rd
big misunderstanding was about severity
00:31:40
you know I read
00:31:40
a lot about this level of warming 2
degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial
00:31:44
average which scientists talked about as
00:31:46
a level of catastrophic warming in the
island nations of the world called genocide
00:31:50
and scientists would often say we need to
do everything we can to avoid this level
00:31:53
of warming I think most people who are
kind of casually following the story
00:31:57
interpreted that to mean
that this was basically
00:31:59
a worst case scenario but in fact given
where we are now which is about 1 point one
00:32:03
degrees of warming which by the way is
already warmer than it has ever been in the
00:32:07
entire history of humanity 2 degrees is
basically our best case scenario going
00:32:11
forward and the level. Of warming above
that safe 3 degrees or 4 degrees where we
00:32:14
are on track for 5 by the end of the century
nobody had really reckoned with what
00:32:18
that would mean not just in terms of what
it would promise for grain yields and
00:32:23
warfare and conflict all that kind of
stuff but also what it would mean to our
00:32:27
politics and our geopolitics our culture
our storytelling our technology our
00:32:32
relationship to capitalism our
relationship to history and to progress
00:32:36
a sense of ice place in nature and
so in the book I tried to give
00:32:40
a sense of that grand scale of the story
that is in closing all of us and dictating
00:32:45
really in some profound ways how will live
in the future but also transforming so
00:32:49
many of the things that we sort of take for
granted as permanent features of modern
00:32:53
life such that you know 304050 years
from now I think we'll be living in
00:32:57
a world that is really written with
00:32:59
a signature of climate change that bears
the fingerprint of climate change no
00:33:01
matter where we are and no matter what
kind of life we're living and you know all
00:33:05
together that to me seem to suggest
the saga as a whole was just
00:33:09
a much bigger much more all encompassing
much more dramatic story than even those
00:33:13
people who are writing about it talking
about it every day in the newspapers and in
00:33:18
their advocacy work and to really communicate
it to the public so I hope that my
00:33:21
book would sort of be a bit of
00:33:22
a corrective to that story and I think
judging from the reaction of the public I
00:33:26
think it has to an extent would you say
even more or less is addressing this issue
00:33:30
not from a scientific aspect
but from more human aspect
00:33:34
a more personal aspect Yeah you know I'm
I'm not a scientist I'm not even really
00:33:37
a science journalist you know I have
00:33:38
a an interest in the near future and so
I've always been interested in the news
00:33:42
from science but it's not really where I
live emotionally psychologically where I
00:33:46
work every day and I'm
00:33:47
a lifelong New Yorker which means
I like going on vacation into
00:33:51
a place I think of his nature but I actually
don't think of myself as being someone
00:33:54
who's especially connected
to it I've never had
00:33:56
a pet I don't have that kind of deep love
for animals and so in all these ways I'm
00:34:00
a kind of an unusual unlikely environmentalist
but that also I think is just
00:34:05
a sign of how dramatic these impacts are
that even someone like me who has no
00:34:10
reflexive love for the natural world.
Per Se still is brought to the point of
00:34:15
constant panic attack by learning about
what is in store for us in the future
00:34:19
because what's in store for humans is
quite quite dramatic enough and that's
00:34:22
another way that I think much of the
storytelling about climate had sort of let us
00:34:26
down over the last few
decades is that we heard
00:34:27
a lot about the plight of the polar bears
but the truth is that the impacts on
00:34:31
humans are just as dramatic maybe more
dramatic and what I mean when I say that I
00:34:35
don't think the human animal is going
to go extinct I don't think that our
00:34:37
civilization is going to collapse because
of climate change but when you understand
00:34:41
that we are now living outside the window
of temperatures that includes all of
00:34:44
human history what that means is that
everything that we've come to depend on in
00:34:48
modern life but even beyond that all the
way back through agriculture and the
00:34:52
evolution of the human species to begin
with all of that was dependent on climate
00:34:56
conditions that no longer prevail so
it's almost as though we've landed on
00:35:00
a new planet and are trying to figure out
what the culture that we've brought with
00:35:03
us Will indoor in the under these new
conditions which by the way are going to keep
00:35:07
changing actually probably more quickly
in the next couple decades than they've
00:35:10
changed in the last couple of decades and
I don't know what that means for how
00:35:14
civilization will endure but I think I think
it will and or the question is In what
00:35:18
form transformed in what ways and leaving
what kinds of imprints on us and I think
00:35:22
that's really the my money the focus of the
book even more than the sort of direct
00:35:25
climate questions beyond the science are
these kind of humanitarian questions that
00:35:29
humanity is questions of what it will mean
for our psychology and our politics and
00:35:33
our literature and all the
rest of it to be living in
00:35:34
a world that's degraded in these ways and
is continuing to be degraded at least for
00:35:39
a time probably by our own hands they've
been I'm curios we've known about climate
00:35:44
change climate change has been in the news
for at least 2 decades you know that I
00:35:48
think that I can recall perhaps even earlier
than that being that there has been so
00:35:52
much about climate change in the news in
the dangers of climate change as you had
00:35:56
mentioned why has the level of carbon output
increased in the problem from climate
00:36:01
change been escalating just in recent years
the short answer is because we haven't
00:36:06
responded to the news from science by doing
anything about it and I think that it's
00:36:10
a complicated riddle. Solved I think
part of the reason is that we all have
00:36:15
psychological biases and prejudices and
emotional reflexes that make us reluctant
00:36:19
to take seriously really scary
scenarios then we also have with
00:36:23
a behavioral psychologist called status
quo bias which is that we prefer not to
00:36:26
change things rather than change things
even if we know that they're necessary and
00:36:30
that those sort of biases are problem for
us not just at the level of individuals
00:36:35
but at the level of policy and politics
and at the level of our geopolitics where
00:36:39
we have
00:36:39
a kind of collective action problem which
is to say that even if all the rulers of
00:36:43
the world agree that climate change is
00:36:44
a problem and really needs its decarbonise
quickly that each one of those nations
00:36:49
would have an incentive to sort of slow
Ah let the rest of the world clean up the
00:36:52
mess you brought this up earlier David
and I guess the word is apathy for
00:36:57
a long time people have seen climate change
as something that will take place very
00:37:02
slowly and it's going to happen in the
distant future so if that's not the case
00:37:06
what is the current timeline in the piece
of climate change with the sport well
00:37:11
really it's
00:37:11
a huge open question based on what we do
so scientists will talk about these things
00:37:16
called uncertainty bars around all of our
projections which is to say we don't
00:37:19
really truly understand where will be at
say precisely 2064 or 2082 and there are
00:37:25
some elements of the science that are
uncertain in that way but much more important
00:37:29
is the open question of what we will do
because the main driver of climate change
00:37:34
for now and for the very foreseeable
future is how much carbon we put into the
00:37:37
atmosphere so on some level that should
be comforting empowering because it tells
00:37:42
us that we are in control of the system and
you know sometimes I hear from deniers
00:37:46
and climate skeptics who say oh we're
just seeing our natural cycles this is an
00:37:51
epidemic it's not human caused and to them
I say well if if that were the case I
00:37:55
would be truly terrified because it
would mean we we would have no leverage
00:37:59
a poll to change it and if we're still
heading on the same track that we're adding
00:38:02
on now which is to say We're following the
trajectory that in previous errors that
00:38:07
I'm sorry history led to mass extinctions
where 95 or 97 percent of all life on
00:38:11
Earth. Died and we had no control over it
that would be absolutely awful on some
00:38:16
level it's comforting and even empowering
that we are doing this damage on the
00:38:20
other hand we are doing this damage
and we're doing that damage knowingly
00:38:24
understanding at some level exactly how
much we're damaging the future of the
00:38:27
planet and I think you know that's terrifying
in its own right so up until recently
00:38:32
I would say that you know the kind of like
biases that I mentioned earlier were one
00:38:36
problem I also think that the
sense that we had that this was
00:38:38
a long term problem was also a reason
we didn't take sufficient action but
00:38:43
a 3rd I think probably critically important
part of that explanation is that until
00:38:47
very recently the economists of the world
believe that fast action on climate would
00:38:51
be very expensive because it would
mean massive upfront investment in
00:38:55
infrastructure projects
mill like an R. And D.
00:38:58
And renewable energy and it would also
mean foregoing some amount of economic
00:39:01
activity in the case of say retiring
00:39:04
a coal plant that was not yet
ready to be retired I think for
00:39:07
a long time in the West at least our policy
makers have really been focused on the
00:39:10
north star of economic growth and so if
they heard from their economic advisors
00:39:14
that action on climate would be damaging
to that growth they were really unwilling
00:39:18
or unlikely to do it but that conventional
wisdom has actually been totally
00:39:21
reversed just over the last few years such
that every economist you talk to now is
00:39:25
quite clear when they say that you know
faster action will be better for us even in
00:39:29
a quite short time there was
00:39:30
a report in 2018 suggesting we could add
$26.00 trillion dollars the global economy
00:39:35
through up to the carbonation and the
government of Indonesia which is a kind of
00:39:38
a case study in the developing world
00:39:40
a representative story because over the
last 2 decades they have have their poverty
00:39:44
rate they've doubled their per capita
income but they've done that by
00:39:47
industrializing which means that they've
also doubled their emissions but they say
00:39:50
now that they could have their emissions
by 2030 which would put them ahead of the
00:39:55
commitments that they made under the Paris
Accords and that's notable because at
00:39:58
the moment no nation in the world is on
track to meet those accords they can meet
00:40:01
those accords and even improve upon those
commitments and still grow at 6 percent
00:40:05
per year which is faster than the 5 percent
per year they've been growing over the
00:40:08
last 2 decades when they double their per
capita income so I think that. Shows you
00:40:12
just how different the calculus is
even in the developing world where for
00:40:15
a very long time it was understood you'd
have to sort of choose between economic
00:40:19
growth that holds people out of poverty
and responsible behavior when it came to
00:40:23
climate now it seems we're starting to
understand that we don't have to choose
00:40:26
between them we can grow
quite quickly and still grow
00:40:29
a sponsor Glee so long as we make the
right decisions now the question is how
00:40:33
quickly will that conventional wisdom
circulate and transform the thinking of
00:40:36
policymakers around the world because it
can't just be the government of Indonesia
00:40:40
is doing making those changes it has
to be all of us that's the nature of
00:40:43
a problem it's all encompassing Let's take
00:40:45
a break now you're listening to the science
edition of Press Conference USA I'm the
00:40:49
voice of America I'm
Rick Penta Layo Here's
00:40:52
a reminder that press conference USA is
available for free download from our
00:40:57
website V.O.A. News dot com slash P.C.
00:41:00
USA or from i Tunes We hope you'll get in
touch with us either through Facebook or
00:41:06
Twitter at Carol Castillo wiil way or by
sending us an old fashion email to P.C.
00:41:11
USA at V.O.A.
00:41:12
News dot com Now back to the science edition
of Press Conference USA Today we're
00:41:18
talking with author David Wallace
wells about his bestselling book The
00:41:22
uninhabitable earth life after warming
David you say in your book that by the end
00:41:27
of the 21st century parts of the Earth
could be nearly uninhabitable while other
00:41:33
parts inhospitable Could you please explain
this well you know in small parts of
00:41:37
the planet that those effects are already
the case there are parts of sub-Saharan
00:41:41
Africa they're dealing with really
catastrophic droughts and famines and you know
00:41:45
you were there exactly uninhabitable yet
but they are quite difficult to live in at
00:41:49
the moment but the impacts are going to
accumulate quite quickly those studying the
00:41:53
effect of direct heat which is
00:41:55
a sort of underappreciated impact of climate
change say that many of the biggest
00:41:59
cities in South Asia and the Middle East
will be unlivable as soon as 2050 which
00:42:03
means that in summer you will be able
to walk outside in the city is without
00:42:07
risking he struck and possibly death and
these are said he is the sum of 101215
00:42:11
1000000. People living which is one reason
why the UN think that just by 2050 which
00:42:15
is you know it sounds
00:42:16
a little bit far away but it's just it's
really not that we could have as many as
00:42:19
200000000 climate refugees and they think
it's possible you could have as many as
00:42:23
a 1000000000 which is in many people as
live today in North and South America
00:42:26
combined and I think those estimates are
00:42:28
a bit high but even if you take the low
number 200000000 and divided in half it's
00:42:33
still 100 times the size of the Syrian
refugee crisis that is completely
00:42:37
transformed European politics and I think
that's something that people who are sort
00:42:40
of more casually engaged in the subject
don't entirely appreciate it's not just
00:42:44
a matter of discrete
impact say a wildfire here
00:42:47
a drought there it's that these things
really cascade onto one another such that
00:42:52
a drought produces
00:42:53
a famine produces social instability
produces political instability produces
00:42:58
a civil war and that state then is unable
to deal with future impacts another
00:43:04
weather event that might come and that's
what we're dealing with across the globe
00:43:08
at the moment you know there aren't
many parts of the planet that are being
00:43:11
impacted by so many different climate
impacts at once but there's really good
00:43:15
research suggesting that by the end of the
Century 2100 there will be parts of the
00:43:18
planet that could be hit by 6 climate driven
natural disasters at once and I don't
00:43:23
think there's really any government on the
planet at the moment that seems capable
00:43:26
of dealing with those kinds of shocks on
any kind of regular basis and I say that's
00:43:31
2100 but just to put it
in the present tense
00:43:33
a little more concretely you know we hear
00:43:35
a lot when we talk about extreme weather
about this figure 500 year storm it's
00:43:39
a quite useful baseline for
understanding how intense
00:43:41
a storm is immune system that's supposed
to come only once every 500 years and that
00:43:46
means once during the entire history of
Europeans living in America 500 years ago
00:43:51
was when Europeans 1st settled here
which means we're talking about
00:43:53
a storm that's supposed to hit only wants
during the entire colonial period the
00:43:57
entire you know extermination of the native
population and the American Revolution
00:44:02
the building of
00:44:02
a slave's empire the Civil War industrialization
World War One World War 2 the Cold
00:44:07
War the end of history September 11th
financial crisis we're talking about
00:44:11
a well. Event that was supposed to happen
only once during all that time and just
00:44:15
in the last 3 years just in Houston they've
had 3500 year storms and that tells you
00:44:19
just how unprecedented the weather system
that we're living in Already today is and
00:44:23
it's going to get we know from the science
it's going to get dramatically worse in
00:44:27
the decades ahead when I noticed David
that there are aspects of climate change
00:44:31
global warming the team to play into each
other for example you're talking about
00:44:35
ice melt in the Arctic and Antarctic and
of course ice melt leads to sea level
00:44:40
change because she levels so they'll be
less land for people to inhabit and then on
00:44:45
top of that you have as you mentioned the
$500.00 or 1000 years storms you have
00:44:50
extreme climate going on you have
00:44:52
a devastating hurricanes floods and they
all seem to play into each other one fires
00:44:58
again is another example in California
seem to be ongoing So in other words it
00:45:03
seems as though it's going to be difficult
to grab one aspect of the solution to
00:45:07
try to solve all these problems well that's
why I think you know the best solution
00:45:11
is really reducing our carbon as radically
as rapidly as we can because that's the
00:45:15
main driver of all of it what we're trying
to do is just deal with those problems
00:45:20
just adapt to this new normal which is
an ever evolving normal ever worsening
00:45:23
normal I think yeah you're exactly right
it's going to be very very hard and I
00:45:27
recently wrote up
00:45:27
a story in New York Magazine about the
California wildfires in particular I talked
00:45:32
to Eric our city is the mayor of L.A.
00:45:34
And has this really I mean his life story
tells the story very precisely He's 48
00:45:39
years old not an old guy the year he was
born 60000 acres of forest burned in
00:45:44
California here he was elected mayor in
2013 it was 600000 acres here he was
00:45:50
reelected mayor in 2017 it was 1200000
acres and last year 2800 it was 1900000
00:45:56
acres and he told me very straightforwardly
point blank there's no amount of
00:46:01
firefighters we can hire no amount of fire
engines we could buy the amount of brush
00:46:06
we could clear that will stop this he said
the only thing that will stop this is
00:46:10
when the climate system. Planet he said
probably long after we're gone relaxes into
00:46:15
a more predictable weather state and I think
that gets exactly to your point which
00:46:19
is to say if we're going about this trying
to deal with one impact by impact we're
00:46:23
going to be overwhelmed by how much worse
each impact is getting because of how
00:46:27
rapidly the climate is changing
if we have any hope of living in
00:46:30
a kind of stable happily habitable planet
we need to dramatically reduce the amount
00:46:34
of carbon we're producing so that all of
these impacts are much less intense when
00:46:38
they do hit so we have only Category 5
hurricanes rather than category 6 and
00:46:42
category 7 Harkins so that we only have
1900000 acres in California burning every
00:46:47
year rather than 10000000 acres by 2050
which is what the science projects if we
00:46:52
don't change course there's these and
science suggesting that we could have 75
00:46:55
percent of the entire state of California
would be burning every year by the end of
00:46:59
the century if we don't change course
and I think that's a little bit of
00:47:01
a kind of an ignorant estimate but it also
reflects just how bad these trajectories
00:47:06
are if we continue on the path that we're
on our only hope is to change course and
00:47:10
change those trajectories which will affect
every impacts from drought and salmon
00:47:14
to wildfire and all the rest of it David
some climate scientists of the earth is
00:47:18
close to or has gone beyond the tipping
point where the effects of climate change
00:47:23
are irreversible. Nor has this happened
personally I that's not how I see it but
00:47:30
I don't want to present myself as
00:47:31
a more informed expert than scientist but
I would say that the majority of climate
00:47:36
scientists don't see that as being the
situation today they're worried that there
00:47:40
are tipping points some of them say they'll
be between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius of
00:47:45
warming some say between 3 and 4 others
further points down the line where what are
00:47:50
called feedback loops could kick in and
these are natural systems that could
00:47:55
accelerate the pace of warming so to take
one example the ice in the Arctic and
00:47:59
Antarctic is important as
00:48:01
a store of water and it's why the sea levels
are where they are today but it's also
00:48:05
white which means it reflects
00:48:07
a lot of sunlight back into outer space if
all of that ice melts it will. Replaced
00:48:12
by dark water and dark water absorbs much
more heat than white ice this is the
00:48:17
reason why you know if you wear
00:48:18
a black shirt during the summer you're
hotter than if you are white shirt so if we
00:48:22
lose all of that Arctic and Antarctic ice
then the planet will be absorbing more
00:48:25
sunlight all the time which would make it
considerably hotter than it would be if
00:48:30
it was reflecting some of that that's one
of these so-called feedback loops there
00:48:33
are
00:48:33
a number of others probably some are already
being triggered at the moment but the
00:48:37
most dramatic ones we think are still
00:48:39
a ways away but it's just another reason
why we need to more rapidly decarbonise so
00:48:44
that we can try to avoid triggering these
feedback loops which could push us you
00:48:48
know much much further into the danger
zone than we are today there was
00:48:51
a really terrifying paper I read
00:48:52
a few months ago suggesting that I think
is about $1300.00 parts per 1000000 of
00:48:57
carbon in the atmosphere which is well
more than we have today but which we could
00:49:00
conceivably reach by sort of the early
middle next century the planet could
00:49:03
entirely lose its ability to form clouds
and that impact alone could add 8 degrees
00:49:09
Celsius of warming to our climate change
which would mean we'd probably be at about
00:49:13
5 degrees of warming already that would
mean you know $600.00 trillion dollars in
00:49:17
global climate damages which is double
all the wealth that exists in the world
00:49:20
today it would mean twice as much war or
more all the other impacts I mentioned and
00:49:24
yet all of
00:49:24
a sudden rapidly the loss of cloud formation
the loss of the former clouds would
00:49:30
bring us from that level 5 degrees to 13
degrees warming which would practically
00:49:34
speaking make huge parts of the planet
maybe all the way up through the northern
00:49:39
latitudes and into the Arctic and Antarctic
circles unlivable for humans as we live
00:49:44
today with the grueling crisis as you
describe it in your book David there seems to
00:49:48
be
00:49:48
a growing down regarding climate science and
even science in general especially here
00:49:53
in the U.S. a Number of what some call
climate skeptics have been getting
00:49:57
a lot of attention in recent times how do
you respond to those who may insist that
00:50:01
if there is climate change it's not
necessarily caused by humans and that it's
00:50:06
a normal natural phenomena that the earth
has experienced this many times in the
00:50:10
past well I'm. I'd say it's actually quite
an easy argument to refute in the sense
00:50:15
that even if you just took the very basic
understanding of the greenhouse effect
00:50:19
that was 1st identified in the middle of
the 19th century by John Tyndall and you
00:50:23
know what and him put into that equation
the amount of added carbon that we've got
00:50:28
into the atmosphere you would get
00:50:30
a prediction very very close to exactly the
amount of temperature rise that we have
00:50:33
today so there's no need to look for
additional explanations or you know additional
00:50:38
causes we have
00:50:39
a very very neat prediction that could have
been falsified by our experience and in
00:50:43
fact has been confirmed by our experience
I think we know everything we know about
00:50:47
the way that these gases work tell us that
the earth will respond this way and it
00:50:51
has I think that on the question of climate
skepticism climate and I know more
00:50:55
generally you know I think that it's true
that our politics is captive to some of
00:50:59
these interests but when I look
at the polls I see actually
00:51:02
a very different story you know 73 percent
of Americans believe climate change is
00:51:05
real and happening now 70 percent of Americans
are concerned about it those numbers
00:51:10
are up 15 points since 2015 they're up
8 points since last year that's really
00:51:16
dramatic movement by any political
science standard and especially dramatic
00:51:20
considering that we live in such partisan
tribal eyes times that very few people
00:51:24
have ideas about anything going on in
the world that isn't processed through
00:51:28
a partisan lens and if we have 73 percent
of Americans who believe the climate
00:51:32
change is real when one of our 2
major parties is really committed to
00:51:35
a program of at least skepticism if
not outright denial that's really
00:51:38
a remarkable figure it also tells you that
27 percent of Americans don't believe in
00:51:43
climate change and that number is considerably
higher than I would want but it's
00:51:47
about the same number as the number of
Americans who believe that aliens live among
00:51:51
us 26 percent of Americans believe that
Allianz live among us and we don't give
00:51:55
veto power over our climate policy or our
NASA policy to those people who believe
00:52:00
Allianz live on earth we should be giving
00:52:02
a veto power to those people who believe
that climate change isn't real it's the
00:52:06
same number of people probably in
00:52:07
a lot of cases it's the same people and
when I see much more robust. Support for
00:52:12
belief in climate change in action on
climate change that I think our discourse
00:52:16
necessarily reflects I think because we
are used to telling every story through
00:52:21
a partisan lens and partisanship should
just there's one side believes one thing
00:52:24
and the other side believes the other
thing I actually find the bigger problem
00:52:28
bigger than climate skepticism certainly
bigger than climate denial is climate
00:52:32
complacency so when I see that 73 percent
of Americans are worried about climate
00:52:36
change I think why are those people more
concerned why is it that the median
00:52:40
commitment that the average American is
willing to make to fight climate change is
00:52:44
$1.00 a month most are not
willing to contribute $10.00
00:52:47
a month to to fight it and because of the
changing economic dynamics I talked about
00:52:51
earlier I'm not sure that we'll need to ask
those people to even commit that amount
00:52:55
of money towards fighting
climate change but it's
00:52:57
a sign of how weakly committed to the story
we are so when I look at the landscape
00:53:02
I see the problem of
climate complacency as
00:53:05
a much much bigger one much more important
to solve than one of skepticism and
00:53:09
denial and I think that giving those people
stronger sense of urgency of just how
00:53:14
much is at stake just how fast it's moving
just how threatened everything we take
00:53:18
for granted about our lives today is by
this force will I hope make our commitments
00:53:23
to action on climate more intense and
from that we can start to evolve
00:53:26
a more ambitious climate policy which we're
already seeing and we're seeing that in
00:53:30
part because of the climate protest
movements the unprecedented climate protest
00:53:34
movements of the last 6 or 9 months
which are happening in the U.S.
00:53:37
In the form of the Sunrise movement but
also in Europe with climate strikes the
00:53:41
background sound Bergan in the U.K.
00:53:43
With extinction rebellion these are really
amazing signs of progress which I would
00:53:48
not have honestly believed if you
had told me that they were coming
00:53:51
a year or so ago I like many other people
who thought that our time in politics
00:53:54
were totally inert but in fact not only
are those people out in the streets
00:53:57
marching they're having
00:53:59
a concrete impact on our politics so that
you know Greg has persuaded the president
00:54:04
of the E.U.
00:54:05
To commit I think one out of every 3
euro's to mitigating climate change.
00:54:12
Extinction rebellion in the U.K.
00:54:13
Has forced the British parliament to declare
a climate emergency and put together
00:54:17
a plan for how to get 0 carbon emissions
by 2050 which isn't quite ambitious enough
00:54:21
for me but is a remarkable statement
understand given where they were just
00:54:24
a few years ago and in the US we have the
Green New Deal which is you know it's
00:54:28
a preliminary document we still have to
fill out the details exactly what it means
00:54:32
for policy is not yet clear but as
00:54:34
a statement of ambition is so much
bigger and grander and more serious than
00:54:37
anything the Democrats have put forward
before that I think it's hard not to be
00:54:41
exhilarated by
00:54:41
a someone who cares about climate change
and honestly just as remarkable that all
00:54:45
the major presidential Democratic
presidential candidates have endorsed that
00:54:49
statement of ambition at least as a
statement of ambition at least as
00:54:52
a rhetorical commitment which puts the
needs of science 1st rather than defining
00:54:57
our climate policy through what we think
of as politically feasible I think that
00:55:02
reversal is quite dramatic quite exciting
and you know I would have said that it
00:55:06
was even possible
00:55:07
a year ago that's how dramatic the movement
has been David Wallace Wells I want to
00:55:11
thank you so much for taking time to
talk with us today and for sharing your
00:55:14
wonderful insights thanks so much for having
me that was David Wallace Wells author
00:55:19
of the bestselling book The uninhabitable
earth life after warming which is
00:55:23
available from your favorite online bookseller
He joined us today by Skype and I'm
00:55:28
afraid that's all the time we have for the
science edition of Press Conference USA
00:55:33
This is for pantaloon reminding you to be
sure to join Carol Castillo next week for
00:55:38
another press conference USA
on The Voice of America.
00:56:18
Union official converge. On this year's
capital this weekend for an African Union
00:56:25
summit that begins the
operational phase of
00:56:29
a long sought Continental free trade
zone about 50 heads of state were
00:56:36
due to arrive Friday it's
00:56:37
a day behind their foreign ministers for
Sunday some of the African continent
00:56:42
a free trade area by Enter grading the
economies and reducing trade barriers such
00:56:47
as tariffs the pact aims to increase
employment prospects living standards and
00:56:52
opportunities for the continent's 1200000000
and to make Africans more competitive
00:56:58
regionally and globally as well. U.S.
00:57:02
President Donald Trump said Friday he is
considering issuing an executive order to
00:57:06
add a question on citizenship to the U.S.
00:57:10
Census says
00:57:11
a court deadline approaches for the
administration in its one leg work around of
00:57:17
U.S. Supreme Court's decision
blocking the inclusion of
00:57:20
a citizenship question on next year's census
Sherman explains why the census is so
00:57:26
important the census is held once every 10
years and it's used to distribute seats
00:57:33
in the House of Representatives among
the states and it's used to distribute
00:57:37
hundreds of billions of dollars
00:57:39
a year in federal money the Census
Bureau itself has said that adding
00:57:43
a citizenship question to the census would
have the effect of depressing immigrant
00:57:48
participation and also
participation of Hispanics in
00:57:52
a peace March Sherman NATO and Russia
did not make any breakthrough on the
00:57:56
Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
and talks at the Alliance headquarters
00:58:01
especially speaking to reporters
Friday in Brussels after
00:58:04
a meeting of the NATO Russia Council.
Stoltenberg said that that we did not see any
00:58:09
sign of Russia being willing to come
back into compliance with the I.N.F.
00:58:14
Treaty this is the news. California
of California continue to feel
00:58:20
dozens of aftershocks following
00:58:22
a 6.4 magnitude earthquake Thursday morning
residents were jolted is wall shook
00:58:29
store shelves crumbled and several fires
broke out more than 100 aftershocks take
00:58:34
in their region since the
initial joy there is about
00:58:37
a one in 20 chance that this location
will be having an even bigger good quake
00:58:43
within the next few days that we have
not yet seen the biggest earthquake.
00:58:48
Seismologist Lucy Jones she says this was
the largest earthquake to strike Southern
00:58:52
California in 20 years a new U.N.
00:58:55
Report accuses the government of Venezuela
in President Nicolas Maduro of extra
00:59:00
judicial killings and repressive measures
aimed at neutralizing political opponents
00:59:05
Lisa slime reports for V.O.A.
00:59:07
From the council and Geneva Michelle
Bachelet the UN human rights chief says
00:59:12
perceived political opponents and human
rights defenders are subject to threats
00:59:17
smear campaigns and widespread abuse including
torture sexual violence killings and
00:59:23
enforced disappearance accessible legal
force has repeatedly been used against
00:59:27
protesters my office has also documented
the excessive use of force in the context
00:59:33
of security operations by special action
forces with multiple killings mainly of
00:59:38
young men but still it warns Venezuelans
will continue to flee their country and
00:59:43
unprecedented numbers if the abuse does
not end and the dire economic situation
00:59:49
does not improve the system for V.O.A.
00:59:51
News Geneva and responding Venezuela's
vice minister of Foreign Affairs William
00:59:56
Casti.
00:00:00
Missional for human rights
Michelle Bachelet is shoot
00:00:03
a scathing report Thursday accusing Venezuela
security forces of more than $5000.00
00:00:10
killings last year our report notes attacks
against actual or perceived political
00:00:15
opponents and human rights defenders ranging
from threats and Smee have come to Ivy
00:00:21
Tried to the tension thought to an ill
treatment sexual but as killings and 4th
00:00:25
disappearance deputy foreign minister
William kiss Steele fired back saying that
00:00:30
the report failed to reflect the reality
in Venezuela and the Chinese premier
00:00:34
recently announced
00:00:35
a major economic reform move saying that
China would scrap ownership controls on
00:00:40
foreign companies investing in the financial
sector next year ahead of schedule the
00:00:44
government also will reduce restrictions
next year on market access for foreign
00:00:48
investors and the value added telecom
services and transport sectors according to
00:00:53
the premier more at V.O.A.
00:00:55
News Not com I'm Tommy McNeil via emails.
00:01:14
From Washington V.O.A.
00:01:16
Presents issues in the news going
to get. On the panel this week Dan
00:01:22
we'll want to respond in part to play
the respondent for the Los Angeles
00:01:29
Times and the moderator Michael
Williams contributor to C.B.S.
00:01:34
Radio in Washington welcome everyone here
are the issues Donald Trump became the
00:01:39
1st sitting U.S.
00:01:40
President to enter North Korea
stepping across the border during
00:01:44
a meeting at the demilitarized zone with
North Korean leader Kim Jong un president
00:01:48
Frank addressed the nation from the steps
of the Lincoln Memorial on America's
00:01:52
Independence Day amid
00:01:53
a show of military hardware and sorting
himself and controversy into the
00:01:57
celebration of
00:01:58
a national holiday. Ron announced that
it had exceeded its low enriched uranium
00:02:03
stockpile limit violating the amount agreed
to hold in the 2015 international deal
00:02:08
and sending
00:02:09
a pointed message to the trumpet ministration
thousands of demonstrators used the
00:02:13
22nd anniversary of Hong Kong's reunification
with China to break into the city's
00:02:18
legislative building in
00:02:19
a massive protest that drew the ire of
party leaders in Beijing and the situation
00:02:24
at the U.S. Southern border
continues to deteriorate as U.S.
00:02:28
Lawmakers visited detention facilities to
view the conditions and the Department of
00:02:32
Homeland Security began investigating
a report that current and former U.S.
00:02:37
Border Patrol agents are part of
00:02:39
a Facebook group posting racist sexist and
violent posts about migrants and Latin
00:02:45
American lawmakers Palace welcome and
hope you had that wonderful holiday Trump
00:02:51
entering North Korea Donald Trump
became the 1st sitting U.S.
00:02:54
President to enter the North Korea
stepping across the border across the
00:02:58
demilitarized zone shook hands with him at
00:03:00
a border village and then walked across the
demarcation line some are warning that
00:03:05
this is a dangerous sign
of raising the status of
00:03:08
a brutal dictator while others say that
this is a necessary step to creating
00:03:13
a trust with with North Korea for future
negotiations Dan will start with you I
00:03:18
thought interesting about how the meeting
was arranged not your typical diplomatic
00:03:21
situation very very personal style which
is what Donald Trump has of course where
00:03:26
he was in that part of the world he was in
Japan for the Group of 20 summit and he
00:03:30
wrote on Twitter I'm supposed to go to
South Korea tomorrow wouldn't it be
00:03:34
a really neat idea if I went
to the border the D.M.Z.
00:03:37
The demilitarized zone and Kim Jong un
would come from the capital of North Korea
00:03:41
and we'd shake hands at the border just
shake hands that's kind of what the tweet
00:03:45
said it was very casual It seemed to all
appearances North Korea like the idea and
00:03:51
so Kim you know took the trip we don't
know at least I don't know if in the
00:03:54
background in fact more standard in
conventional things happen to our officials
00:03:59
have to talk. Clearly the Secret Service
had to talk to some security guards and
00:04:03
arrange it etc but it looked like an
instant idea in other words it looked like
00:04:08
a T.V.
00:04:08
Show like an episode of The Apprentice or
something the show that Donald Trump used
00:04:12
to host and he loves that kind of event
and if you just think about the various
00:04:16
things he did during the week
including here in Washington D.C.
00:04:18
But that one at the start of the week like
wow watch the political impact it just
00:04:22
tells me that the process of Trump still
trying to charm North Korea into making
00:04:29
a nuclear agreement continues there were
2 summits one in Singapore one and Hanoi
00:04:34
the one hand away early this year apparently
failed but Trump really wanted to keep
00:04:38
that effort alive and so he used the personal
approach to do so and both sides say
00:04:43
that committees now will restart talks
Treasury Yes I think the most important
00:04:48
thing again once once again we
saw Trump giving Kim Jong in
00:04:52
a in an incredible publicity gold you
know. This is very good for Kim at
00:04:59
home he again looks like he's at
the status of a world leader and
00:05:03
a nuclear power frankly I think the best
thing that can come from this is if the 2
00:05:08
sides do actually start to negotiate which
they haven't yet really there haven't
00:05:12
been serious talks so if this is
00:05:14
a reset and they and the 2 sides do sit
down they've agreed to appoint working
00:05:20
committees the U.S.
00:05:21
Already has an envoy to do this
that could be a good thing
00:05:25
a positive outcome however even within the
administration there are differences on
00:05:30
how to deal with North Korea and these
divisions became very clear after this
00:05:35
meeting there are some in terms of
ministration like John Bolton the national
00:05:39
security adviser who does not want to
negotiate with North Korea at all while
00:05:44
others including Trump himself want
00:05:46
a deal so we'll have to see but the important
thing is that after 2 years they're
00:05:50
really just at square one Tracy isn't it
true however that the Trump administration
00:05:54
may no longer demand full denuclearization
the North Korea give up its nuclear.
00:06:00
Bombs and it's potential
and there could be
00:06:02
a compromise that would be very different
from what Donald Trump demanded for oh
00:06:06
indeed now they have they have
rolled back their demands quite
00:06:09
a bit since January they're the main on
the light has been saying that this is
00:06:14
actually going to have to be more of
00:06:15
a step by step reciprocal process although
they don't like to use that word so it
00:06:19
is very possible there will be an interim
deal that yes that allows him to keep his
00:06:24
nukes for now as they continue to talk
officially They're still demanding
00:06:29
disarmament but clearly they're willing to
settle for less military back that John
00:06:33
Bolton did push back on that story saying
that there was no truth to it but it was
00:06:36
New York Times reporting that said
that there was some that the U.S.
00:06:39
May have gone softer well that there was
something some sort of publicly commented
00:06:42
to that effect so I think I don't think
it's just that story I think we've seen
00:06:46
signs as I say all on here I would
say this when you have the U.S.
00:06:50
Negotiating with North Korea on this level
and I prefer to Iran what does it say
00:06:54
about Iran's nuclear ambitions are going
to talk about that later when you had the
00:06:58
2 situations which seem to be somewhat
similar being treated so differently Well
00:07:02
yes well the president is trying to reach
out to Iran as leaders suggesting that he
00:07:07
would sit down with the ayatollah as
government as well and he has predicted Donald
00:07:11
Trump has predicted that
Iran will come to the U.S.
00:07:15
To negotiate Trump thinks that he is
strangling Iran's economy to such an extent
00:07:21
that Iran will want to New Deal and that
deal the Trump administration has said
00:07:25
would not only be about nuclear weapons
and that Iran will never develop them but
00:07:30
also limiting their long range missiles
and also Iran's behavior that measurable
00:07:36
etc and would Iran ever ever really change
its quote behavior of supporting various
00:07:42
Shiite Muslim movements and groups that
we certainly consider to be terrorist
00:07:45
groups but Trump thinks that he can charm
the Iranians that charm offensive hasn't
00:07:50
achieved any results yet so we see China
North Korea Iran we've seen the charm
00:07:55
offensive type of diplomacy by trying to
put all 3 of those nations there in the. 7
00:08:00
to 10 days can the administration point to
00:08:02
a success on any level I
open it up to both of you
00:08:05
a clear when we using
that policy I don't see
00:08:08
a clear win I mean there they are talking
China and the United States are talking
00:08:13
for now they are sort of
00:08:14
a freeze in that trade war perhaps there
will be some progress there what's
00:08:19
interesting about Iran and the message
they may take from this is that you're
00:08:22
better off having a nuclear bomb
than not because they don't have
00:08:27
a nuclear bomb Iran North Korea does that
North Korea is getting the you know the
00:08:31
star treatment and Iran is being you
know punished and sanctioned and so one
00:08:37
message that's dangerous
00:08:39
a message from this is that Iran may be
saying hey we better go ahead and develop
00:08:42
a bomb and then we'll get more respect it
would seem to incentivize them to want to
00:08:46
continue their nuclear program rather than
to halt or diminish well that fits into
00:08:49
one of your headline stories of the week
that President Hassan Rouhani of Iran said
00:08:54
that we are going to exceed the limits
from the nuclear accord of the year 2015
00:08:59
we're not just going to create to
enrich low enriched uranium more
00:09:05
a quantity greater than the treaty allowed
the chordal out but in addition we're
00:09:10
going to enrich uranium to even more
powerful degrees whatever it is we want and
00:09:15
then your headline you said
that's a message to the U.S.
00:09:17
But I think everyone
needs to understand it's
00:09:20
a message to the European countries that
signed on to the nuclear record Britain
00:09:25
France and Germany I would just put it
this way Iran wants the Europeans to help
00:09:30
get around US economic sanctions to save
your runs economy I think that's President
00:09:35
Rouhani is demand what he really proceed
to this and Richmond level we're starting
00:09:40
to hear military threats for instance from
Israel if Iran with their to do that I
00:09:45
think we're hearing military threats from
the president of United States as well
00:09:48
who say that Iran is playing with fire did
you know that they'll be obliterated if
00:09:52
they if they attack us similar rhetoric
the Europeans have tried to create
00:09:57
a mechanism to get around USA. Actions but
it's really hard to try to to do trade
00:10:03
outside of the U.S.
00:10:05
Dominated global global financial system
so but you still have Russia and China who
00:10:09
are also signatories to the to the nuclear
deal but they seem to take Iran's side
00:10:14
they've said they are to take reading on
site that they have both of them China and
00:10:16
Russia said it's regrettable that Iran
has announced it's going to exceed the
00:10:21
limits in effect break the Accord of 2015
but both China and Russia blamed the
00:10:26
United States for stirring up the tension
for walking away from the deal and adding
00:10:30
new sanctions what the Iranians are saying
actually is that they have not breached
00:10:35
the deal because any time there is
00:10:37
a dispute about what has happened you
haven't breached the deal until there is
00:10:40
a meeting that says that investigates and
discovers and they're saying that well
00:10:44
maybe we did maybe we didn't but we haven't
officially breached it until we have
00:10:47
the meeting that says that very legal listing
very nitpicky it inside baseball but
00:10:52
you know again I think it's
00:10:54
a matter of message sent to
both sides with you that is
00:10:57
a strong message to get to the Europeans
that they need to be on point in brokering
00:11:01
this deal and the European governments
really want to preserve the nuclear accord
00:11:04
but you know there are trump administration
officials are say this is the decision
00:11:08
for Britain France and Germany are
you going to work with the U.S.
00:11:12
Or are you going to work with Iran the
White House claims it's giving Europe
00:11:15
a choice it's not really that stark but
that's the way they're putting it are we
00:11:19
closer today to open conflict between the
United States and Iran Well yes we are
00:11:25
compared with
00:11:25
a few weeks ago but the nuclear reason is
just part of the picture that Iran might
00:11:31
be enriching more uranium and
that's seen as dangerous or
00:11:34
a violation but of course the situation in
the Arabian or Persian Gulf it with the
00:11:39
threat with the attacks
on shipping with the U.S.
00:11:42
And others saying that Iran or Iranian
backed forces attacked some of the oil
00:11:46
tankers that were in that very important
shipping lane and the man shooting down
00:11:50
a U.S. Drone U.S.
00:11:52
Drone where President Trump and for President
Trump said that he decided in fact to
00:11:56
attack a target in Iran in
response to Iran. Shooting down
00:12:00
a drone and then when he learned that
probably 150 Iranians would die said no
00:12:05
that's not worth it that's not reciprocal
so I think Barry was trying to get kind
00:12:09
of to be
00:12:09
a nice guy Iran wouldn't you rather
negotiate again so far no results but let's
00:12:14
keep in mind one other thing when the goshi
actions have occurred between the U.S.
00:12:18
And Iran they've always started secretly
in other places like Cuba Switzerland or
00:12:24
Oman so we don't know everything going
on very important point out again is the
00:12:28
diplomatic corps actually activated and
working within this administration Tracy
00:12:33
that's your Because the diplomatic corps
doing anything complicated is always
00:12:36
a question mark because I think the State
Department has been so sidelined in so
00:12:41
many foreign policy issues that it is
00:12:44
a big question mark to what extent they
are involved they're certainly not so
00:12:48
involved in the Middle East the Israeli
Palestinian Mideast peace process many of
00:12:54
the veteran State Department employees
diplomats foreign service officers have left
00:12:59
or been driven out of the
department we're going to take
00:13:01
a break right there and then we'll be back
with more issues in the news issues in
00:13:05
the news is coming to you from the Voice
of America in Washington if you would like
00:13:10
to download the program it's free on i
Tunes Just click on the i Tunes tab on our
00:13:15
website at the News dot com While you're
there go ahead and check out our other
00:13:20
presidents press conference where they
encounter also visit us on Facebook and
00:13:26
leave
00:13:26
a comment or 2 then my current affair with
downtown Seattle now back to our panel
00:13:33
Dan Murphy senior Washington correspondent
for 24 news Tracy Wilkinson
00:13:38
correspondent for The Los Angeles Times
and our moderator is Michael Williams
00:13:43
contributor to C.B.S.
00:13:45
Radio in Washington. Welcome
back President Trump changed the
00:13:51
commemoration of America's
Independence Day
00:13:53
a little bit this year the 4th
of July commemorates America's
00:13:56
a declaration of independence from Britain
in the establishment of the United
00:13:59
States has. Independent Nation presidents
in modern times have chosen to mark
00:14:03
America's birthday by participating in
00:14:06
a very small quiet again apart from the
main celebration which takes place in
00:14:11
Washington D.C.
00:14:12
On the national mall trying to do
it very differently incorporating
00:14:16
a military parade
00:14:18
a speech that lasted much longer than I
thought it would military flyovers and the
00:14:23
like some of you Tracy did it very very
differently and I think we know why but I
00:14:28
still like to hear you say. Well I'm not
sure what you want me to say however there
00:14:34
was
00:14:34
a lot of concern that he would turn this
into one big political campaign rally as
00:14:38
as most of his public appearances tend
to be he refrained some want from the
00:14:43
partisan rhetoric yet he did sort
of doom himself in the trappings of
00:14:49
patriotism and I'm sure we will see
scenes from this in his campaign ads even
00:14:55
people from the military were concerned
that he was using them the military as
00:14:59
props and that he did and I think that's
that's where the fallout is again Trump
00:15:05
does things his own way and this was yet
another example do you think this would
00:15:10
have happened and if John Kerry anytime
McMaster was still in the in the
00:15:13
administration well frankly yes I mean
you're thinking of the previous chiefs of
00:15:16
staff and the Trump White House President
Trump is the one who decides what to do
00:15:20
but especially when it comes to these
kind of made for television events the
00:15:24
president likes optics and so it's sort
of well known that he was in Paris and he
00:15:28
was at
00:15:29
a bus steel Day parade nearly 2 years ago
and he really liked that military parade
00:15:34
on the shelves that he's
00:15:35
a and he said why don't we do that in
Washington and so he has wanted to do that
00:15:39
one version of that was basically scrubbed
because it was going to be too expensive
00:15:43
and so he got around to this version that
people gather anyway on the 4th of July
00:15:50
America's birthday on the National
Mall So why doesn't he create
00:15:54
a little television event at one end of the
mall now actually at local time it was
00:15:59
a. 6 30 pm for about an hour usually nothing
goes on then the fireworks show was
00:16:04
later at 9 pm after sunset so it was an
extra event that required extra security
00:16:10
some people thought it was bad taste that
he ordered that tanks be parked in front
00:16:16
of the Lincoln Memorial to some that
looks like some military takeover of
00:16:20
Washington D.C.
00:16:21
But he was framing the whole event as
00:16:23
a salute to America's military again people
said why on July 4th and so his long
00:16:28
somewhat droning speech
for about an hour was
00:16:31
a history of the military punctuated by
flyovers aircraft of the various military
00:16:36
services going overhead it rained people
did come out in massive numbers I bet you
00:16:42
he wasn't that satisfied with the had
only not but in the great yeah one of the
00:16:46
criticisms is that the 4th of July does not
commemorate the United States military
00:16:51
victory It commemorates the Declaration of
Independence democracy the beginning of
00:16:56
yet the idea of American items that were
in the ideals ideals that some argue Trump
00:17:01
is not always respecting So one of the
criticisms was that he's emphasizing the
00:17:05
wrong thing that all women who have never
met him but who who ever wrote his speech
00:17:09
did say that the military and war after war
from 776 till now has been fighting for
00:17:16
values and freedom and defeating ISIS
recently and that sort of thing you know he's
00:17:20
entitled to say what he wants to say he's
the commander in chief he's the elected
00:17:24
president he had this
event that cost I guess
00:17:26
a few $1000000.00 I don't think there
was any harm to his critics against
00:17:32
a really bad taste very narcissistic simply
about him and his supporters apparently
00:17:37
kind of like that but as I say
nobody harm anyone else have
00:17:41
a problem or an issue with
the fact that a president
00:17:44
a person who has spent considerable
time you want to avoid
00:17:47
a military service sort of wrapping himself
in the flag and patriotism and in the
00:17:53
military my reaction in watching
it there was even a call there was
00:17:57
a recruitment call during the speech for
people you should join us. In the military
00:18:00
quick reminder in his defense he has recently
explained why he didn't serve during
00:18:06
the Vietnam War in the 1970 S.
00:18:08
He didn't admit that anything about his
medical excuse was false but he said I
00:18:13
didn't like that war knowing that in general
Americans they don't know what they're
00:18:17
not sure that makes me feel really bad about
it right now not sure if you feel any
00:18:20
better about it but again that was an
issue that I was going to see just what I
00:18:25
wanted to talk about the sort of the general
wisdom of politicizing these types of
00:18:28
events because it wasn't
00:18:30
a political speech it wasn't I
think at worst it could have been
00:18:33
a campaign rally it is certainly not
Democrat did not turn into that at all but
00:18:37
isn't there a fact that any time
00:18:39
a president shows up an event
like this because we do have
00:18:42
a 2 party system it is politics he's elected
by political process that kind of His
00:18:47
presence turns it into
00:18:49
a political event which is why most presidents
stay away in the 1st place although
00:18:52
a better
00:18:53
a vent would be if the Democrats who are
among the leaders of Congress would also
00:18:58
be there as well as the Republican who is
the president in some United event but
00:19:04
this is what I listeners around
the world need to know this it's
00:19:07
a very divided country right now politics
here intrude on absolutely everything and
00:19:13
I don't think Democrats were invited in
if they had been I'm not sure they would
00:19:16
have gone and didn't disappoint but again
get the creation of the division let's
00:19:22
move on to the protests in Hong Kong 12
arrests have been made following protests
00:19:27
in Hong Kong where demonstrators stormed
the legislative building part to protest
00:19:32
Hong Kong Leader Kerry lamb and
00:19:34
a proposed extra extradition law Denys
everything you were you were you surprised
00:19:39
by the intensity of the protest I was
surprised by the intensity of it well I've
00:19:44
been in Hong Kong and I lived there for 5
years they are in so since the handover
00:19:48
to Chinese administration it's
been uncomfortable now for
00:19:53
a bit over 20 years where there's
00:19:55
a promise of 2 systems that Hong Kong in
effect could keep some of its freedoms
00:19:59
that it. That under British rule and I So
I think this is been boiling under the
00:20:02
surface and so someone in Beijing decided
to try something strong let's have an
00:20:09
extradition law that
anyone who's convicted of
00:20:11
a crime in Hong Kong might be sent
to a Chinese prison or accused of
00:20:15
a crime and then tried in China yeah it's
00:20:19
a shocker to anyone in Hong Kong and so I
think Beijing was trying it to see how
00:20:23
Hong Kong would react boy they saw they
got to answer yeah very very quickly Yeah
00:20:28
and I think they're saying that the
Chinese government right now is becoming
00:20:32
increasingly authoritarian and much more
restrictive and so I think people in Hong
00:20:37
Kong are sort of in a bit of
00:20:39
a panic about that one point I wanted to
make is that you have not heard any kind
00:20:44
of great voice of support from the
trumpet ministration for the Hong Kong
00:20:48
protesters you know here's a you know
00:20:50
a glowing example of democracy in action
and you've not heard any support from this
00:20:55
administration didn't praise and he
was asked once about the meadow What
00:20:58
a shame but he doesn't like disorder
industries actually and I think again that is
00:21:03
his friendship with President Xi that he
does not want to say anything that will
00:21:08
offend his his buddy his body exactly
let's move to the situation at the U.S.
00:21:13
Southern border members of the U.S.
00:21:15
Congress saw firsthand the conditions at
the detention centers the border patrol is
00:21:19
investigating reports that current and
former Border Patrol agents are part of this
00:21:23
Facebook group that are posting very violent
types of posts about migrants and U.S.
00:21:29
Lawmakers of Latin American Heritage
Dictionary through the conditions that we saw
00:21:34
there in the response by the
lawmakers was quite quite strong OK
00:21:37
a couple of things again huge political
divisiveness over this issue as well about
00:21:41
that Facebook Group
00:21:42
a private group where apparently hundreds
of people who work for the Border Patrol
00:21:47
agency C.B.P.
00:21:48
Customs and Border Protection take part in
their off hours they write nasty things
00:21:52
they mock the migrants they're racists etc
There's a promise from the agency C.B.P.
00:21:57
That they will be disciplined it's
unacceptable so we'll see. In the world of
00:22:00
social networking and the Internet that
happens people write of noxious terrible
00:22:04
things because people have been arriving
in very large numbers sometimes $100000.00
00:22:09
per month this year and here's the political
division part Democrats in Congress
00:22:14
have been visiting the facilities in Texas
Florida and saying that the that the
00:22:18
conditions are horrible the word from
the Trump administration as well and
00:22:22
President Trump even tweeted this if the
migrants don't like the conditions they
00:22:25
should stop coming and in many cases he
wrote for these migrants the conditions in
00:22:30
the facilities are much better than what
they have in their home countries so he's
00:22:35
rejecting all the complaints
and he's trying to send
00:22:37
a message just stop coming problem solve
don't come to America the Democrats
00:22:42
including those running for president more
than 20 men and women they assume that
00:22:46
Democrat voters liberals will care about
the migrants frankly President Trump
00:22:52
assumes that his base doesn't care about
the migrants and wants them to stay away
00:22:56
it's like take the same set of facts and
the 2 sides read them totally differently
00:23:01
and yet there's there's not caring about
in there's open contempt for you see when
00:23:05
President Trump has beat
00:23:06
a little amnesty claims saying that they're
all crock and they're faking that you
00:23:10
know I've spent
00:23:10
a lot of time in Central America and I know
the conditions these people are fleeing
00:23:14
and I think they have I think in many cases
very legitimate claims but I think the
00:23:18
more important thing here is that while
Trump is saying we'll go back to where you
00:23:22
came from he's cutting money U.S.
00:23:25
Aid to those countries so you know everyone
says and this is true when it we lose
00:23:30
sight of it that the root causes you know
the factors that push people need to be
00:23:36
addressed El Salvador had one of the highest
homicide rates in the world and threw
00:23:41
us
00:23:42
a and improving the police forces they've
actually brought down that homicide rate
00:23:47
down President Trump takes
00:23:48
a unique view of it absolutely previous
American presidents realize they are felt
00:23:52
they had to give foreign aid to those
countries we're talking especially about El
00:23:55
Salvador Guatemala and Honduras and President
Trump says those countries. Helping
00:24:00
us at all on cutting off the money in our
recent indications by the way or that the
00:24:03
money may start flowing again because the
president has openly thanked and praised
00:24:08
the government of Guatemala for doing
something so now he may be willing to pay
00:24:12
money again or get money and of course
he's praising Mexico only about
00:24:17
a month ago he was threatening tariffs on
all products made in Mexico unless Mexico
00:24:21
help stop the migrants Now President Trump
has decided to announce Mexico is doing
00:24:25
a lot because I push them if you have the
Democrats and they seem to be taking an
00:24:32
open borders type of position when you when
you listen to them sort of tangentially
00:24:35
you don't really hear anything other than
open borders not really coming up with
00:24:38
a solution for the problem or send it
that the conditions are deplorable and I
00:24:42
think anybody can objectively see
that but if they don't come up with
00:24:45
a solution for this problem
is that potentially
00:24:49
a death knell for that he may be noted
entering the presidential election campaign
00:24:52
next year when it's one Democrat against
Donald Trump and Donald Trump will keep
00:24:57
hitting them on that notion the Democrats
want open borders meaning that they want
00:25:01
crime they don't want to enforce the laws
they won't change the laws he'll keep
00:25:05
hitting the Democrats but right now the
candidates for the White House they think
00:25:09
if they're Democrats that the best thing
to do is to say we want to be nice to the
00:25:13
migrants we don't want to have round ups
we don't want to have the arrests that are
00:25:16
currently being threatened by President
Trump that helps you win the nomination
00:25:20
later you move toward the center that's
the way politics usually works are
00:25:24
absolutely right that's all the time
that we have for this week thanks to Dan
00:25:27
receive senior Washington correspondent
for 24 news and Tracy Wilkinson
00:25:32
correspondent for The Los Angeles Times
this program is produced by video ways Kim
00:25:36
Lewis our engineer is just in Thwaites
And I'm Michael Williams thanks for
00:25:41
listening.
00:26:13
From V.O.A.
00:26:14
. Press Conference USA here's your host.
00:26:21
According to independent
analysis by NASA and the U.S.
00:26:24
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Earth's global surface temperature
00:26:29
in 2018 was the 4th warmest since 1080
Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies
00:26:36
says 18 of the 19 warmest years during
that time all have occurred since 2001 the
00:26:42
central aim of the Paris agreement within
the United Nations framework on climate
00:26:47
change is to bolster the world's poorest
bonce to the threat of climate change by
00:26:51
keeping
00:26:52
a global temperature rise of this century well
below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
00:26:57
levels the pact also encourages efforts
to limit the temperature increase even
00:27:02
further to no more than $1.00 degrees
Celsius so why is keeping the global
00:27:07
temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees
Celsius so important according to the
00:27:12
Climate Reality Project
00:27:13
a nonprofit organization focused on climate
change 1.5 degrees is right about the
00:27:19
point that scientists project will see
some of the climate impacts we already see
00:27:24
today begin to go from bad to outright
terrify the organization also says it's
00:27:29
about the point where we'll likely see
many natural systems begin to cross
00:27:33
dangerous points of no return triggering
lasting changes and transforming life as
00:27:38
we know it scientists have determined
that Earth is already one degree Celsius
00:27:43
above pre-industrial levels of the early
to mid 18 hundreds while these numbers and
00:27:48
statistics related to global warming and
climate change may not mean much to most
00:27:53
of us
00:27:53
a new bestselling book by David Wallace
Wells writes about how when increasingly
00:27:58
warming planet will come to affect humanity
and less dramatic measures are taken
00:28:03
very soon the book is called the uninhabitable
earth life after warming they've had
00:28:09
Wallace Wells joins us today via Skype. To
talk about his book and as well as what
00:28:14
life on Earth would be like should we
reach that point of no return David the
00:28:19
opening line to your book The uninhabitable
earth life after warming is it's worse
00:28:24
much worse than you think What did you mean
by this and did you purposely use it to
00:28:30
set the tone of what was to come in your
book yeah absolutely what I meant was sort
00:28:34
of 3 fold which is to say that I felt coming
to the subject myself that there were
00:28:39
3 big misunderstandings that I had about
climate change that I'd been given by the
00:28:43
way that we talked about climate that we
are journalists reported our advocates and
00:28:48
policymakers talked about it and I
wanted to sort of correct those 3
00:28:51
misunderstanding so they were to take them
in order the 1st was about the speed of
00:28:55
change you know I have been raised I would
say to believe that climate change is
00:28:59
really slow that it was something that
would be unfolding over decades if not
00:29:02
centuries we often talked about it as
00:29:05
a legacy of the industrial
revolution and James Hansen is
00:29:08
a quite alarmist outspoken climate
scientists the name of his book for general
00:29:12
audiences storms of my
grandchildren which gives you
00:29:15
a sense of you know this
is quite far away and as
00:29:17
a result I think you could
naturally assume that we had
00:29:20
a lot of time to grow our way out of it
to innovate our way out of it but in fact
00:29:23
half of all of the emissions that we put
into the atmosphere in the entire history
00:29:27
of humanity from the burning of fossil
fuels have come in just the last 30 years
00:29:30
which means we're doing this damage really
dramatically in real time that's 30
00:29:34
years a since Al Gore published his 1st
book on warming it's since the U.N.
00:29:37
Established its I.P.C.C.
00:29:39
Climate change panel and I'm 36 years old
so it's my life contains that story as
00:29:43
well when I was born the planet was in the
squad stable situation scientists were
00:29:47
a little bit worried about the medium term
and long term future for climate change
00:29:51
but in the near term everything was OK and
now we are on the brink of catastrophe
00:29:54
and that is because of what we've done
just in the last 30 years there was
00:29:58
a report that came out today that we
have you know not only are we reached
00:30:01
a record high for carbon concentration in
the atmosphere but in the last year 28000
00:30:06
we actually grew our carbon concentration
at the fastest rate on record which means
00:30:11
that we're doing this down. More
quickly every year this isn't just
00:30:14
a matter of our not moving fast enough
to reverse the trend of carbon emissions
00:30:17
where we're doing more damage every year
than the year before so we're really doing
00:30:20
this damage quite quickly and the
story of climate change as a whole is
00:30:24
a real time rapid story that was the 1st
big misunderstanding the 2nd one was about
00:30:28
scope so I heard
00:30:30
a lot about Arctic melt and sea level rise
and I think most people who did could
00:30:34
feel that if they'd lived anywhere but the
coast that they were relatively safe and
00:30:37
even if they lived on the coast they could
probably move away from it and still be
00:30:40
OK but the more that I started to learn
about the economic impacts which threaten
00:30:45
a global G.D.P.
00:30:46
They could be 30 percent smaller than it
would be without climate change by the
00:30:49
year 2100 if we don't change course as an
impact it's twice as deep as the Great
00:30:52
Depression and it would be permanent
the more I learned about the effect on
00:30:55
agriculture yields which could be half as
down to full as they are today and we'd
00:30:59
be using those yields to fuel maybe 50
percent more people the more I learned about
00:31:03
the effect of violence where we could have
twice as much war as we have today if we
00:31:07
don't change course because there's
00:31:08
a relationship between temperature and
conflict the impact on public health where
00:31:12
already 9000000 people are dying every
year from air pollution that's related to
00:31:16
the burning of fossil fuels not to mention
the extreme weather the hurricanes the
00:31:19
500 year storm sitting every year the
wildfires burning through huge portions of
00:31:23
California every year the more
I started to see that this was
00:31:25
a totally only compassing story not
something you could compartmentalize or
00:31:29
localize and get away from
and so I think we had
00:31:32
a kind of basic misunderstanding about the
scope of the story which enclosed all of
00:31:35
us no matter where we were and then the 3rd
big misunderstanding was about severity
00:31:40
you know I read
00:31:40
a lot about this level of warming 2
degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial
00:31:44
average which scientists talked about as
00:31:46
a level of catastrophic warming in the
island nations of the world called genocide
00:31:50
and scientists would often say we need to
do everything we can to avoid this level
00:31:53
of warming I think most people who are
kind of casually following the story
00:31:57
interpreted that to mean
that this was basically
00:31:59
a worst case scenario but in fact given
where we are now which is about 1 point one
00:32:03
degrees of warming which by the way is
already warmer than it has ever been in the
00:32:07
entire history of humanity 2 degrees is
basically our best case scenario going
00:32:11
forward and the level. Of warming above
that safe 3 degrees or 4 degrees where we
00:32:14
are on track for 5 by the end of the century
nobody had really reckoned with what
00:32:18
that would mean not just in terms of what
it would promise for grain yields and
00:32:23
warfare and conflict all that kind of
stuff but also what it would mean to our
00:32:27
politics and our geopolitics our culture
our storytelling our technology our
00:32:32
relationship to capitalism our
relationship to history and to progress
00:32:36
a sense of ice place in nature and
so in the book I tried to give
00:32:40
a sense of that grand scale of the story
that is in closing all of us and dictating
00:32:45
really in some profound ways how will live
in the future but also transforming so
00:32:49
many of the things that we sort of take for
granted as permanent features of modern
00:32:53
life such that you know 304050 years
from now I think we'll be living in
00:32:57
a world that is really written with
00:32:59
a signature of climate change that bears
the fingerprint of climate change no
00:33:01
matter where we are and no matter what
kind of life we're living and you know all
00:33:05
together that to me seem to suggest
the saga as a whole was just
00:33:09
a much bigger much more all encompassing
much more dramatic story than even those
00:33:13
people who are writing about it talking
about it every day in the newspapers and in
00:33:18
their advocacy work and to really communicate
it to the public so I hope that my
00:33:21
book would sort of be a bit of
00:33:22
a corrective to that story and I think
judging from the reaction of the public I
00:33:26
think it has to an extent would you say
even more or less is addressing this issue
00:33:30
not from a scientific aspect
but from more human aspect
00:33:34
a more personal aspect Yeah you know I'm
I'm not a scientist I'm not even really
00:33:37
a science journalist you know I have
00:33:38
a an interest in the near future and so
I've always been interested in the news
00:33:42
from science but it's not really where I
live emotionally psychologically where I
00:33:46
work every day and I'm
00:33:47
a lifelong New Yorker which means
I like going on vacation into
00:33:51
a place I think of his nature but I actually
don't think of myself as being someone
00:33:54
who's especially connected
to it I've never had
00:33:56
a pet I don't have that kind of deep love
for animals and so in all these ways I'm
00:34:00
a kind of an unusual unlikely environmentalist
but that also I think is just
00:34:05
a sign of how dramatic these impacts are
that even someone like me who has no
00:34:10
reflexive love for the natural world.
Per Se still is brought to the point of
00:34:15
constant panic attack by learning about
what is in store for us in the future
00:34:19
because what's in store for humans is
quite quite dramatic enough and that's
00:34:22
another way that I think much of the
storytelling about climate had sort of let us
00:34:26
down over the last few
decades is that we heard
00:34:27
a lot about the plight of the polar bears
but the truth is that the impacts on
00:34:31
humans are just as dramatic maybe more
dramatic and what I mean when I say that I
00:34:35
don't think the human animal is going
to go extinct I don't think that our
00:34:37
civilization is going to collapse because
of climate change but when you understand
00:34:41
that we are now living outside the window
of temperatures that includes all of
00:34:44
human history what that means is that
everything that we've come to depend on in
00:34:48
modern life but even beyond that all the
way back through agriculture and the
00:34:52
evolution of the human species to begin
with all of that was dependent on climate
00:34:56
conditions that no longer prevail so
it's almost as though we've landed on
00:35:00
a new planet and are trying to figure out
what the culture that we've brought with
00:35:03
us Will indoor in the under these new
conditions which by the way are going to keep
00:35:07
changing actually probably more quickly
in the next couple decades than they've
00:35:10
changed in the last couple of decades and
I don't know what that means for how
00:35:14
civilization will endure but I think I think
it will and or the question is In what
00:35:18
form transformed in what ways and leaving
what kinds of imprints on us and I think
00:35:22
that's really the my money the focus of the
book even more than the sort of direct
00:35:25
climate questions beyond the science are
these kind of humanitarian questions that
00:35:29
humanity is questions of what it will mean
for our psychology and our politics and
00:35:33
our literature and all the
rest of it to be living in
00:35:34
a world that's degraded in these ways and
is continuing to be degraded at least for
00:35:39
a time probably by our own hands they've
been I'm curios we've known about climate
00:35:44
change climate change has been in the news
for at least 2 decades you know that I
00:35:48
think that I can recall perhaps even earlier
than that being that there has been so
00:35:52
much about climate change in the news in
the dangers of climate change as you had
00:35:56
mentioned why has the level of carbon output
increased in the problem from climate
00:36:01
change been escalating just in recent years
the short answer is because we haven't
00:36:06
responded to the news from science by doing
anything about it and I think that it's
00:36:10
a complicated riddle. Solved I think
part of the reason is that we all have
00:36:15
psychological biases and prejudices and
emotional reflexes that make us reluctant
00:36:19
to take seriously really scary
scenarios then we also have with
00:36:23
a behavioral psychologist called status
quo bias which is that we prefer not to
00:36:26
change things rather than change things
even if we know that they're necessary and
00:36:30
that those sort of biases are problem for
us not just at the level of individuals
00:36:35
but at the level of policy and politics
and at the level of our geopolitics where
00:36:39
we have
00:36:39
a kind of collective action problem which
is to say that even if all the rulers of
00:36:43
the world agree that climate change is
00:36:44
a problem and really needs its decarbonise
quickly that each one of those nations
00:36:49
would have an incentive to sort of slow
Ah let the rest of the world clean up the
00:36:52
mess you brought this up earlier David
and I guess the word is apathy for
00:36:57
a long time people have seen climate change
as something that will take place very
00:37:02
slowly and it's going to happen in the
distant future so if that's not the case
00:37:06
what is the current timeline in the piece
of climate change with the sport well
00:37:11
really it's
00:37:11
a huge open question based on what we do
so scientists will talk about these things
00:37:16
called uncertainty bars around all of our
projections which is to say we don't
00:37:19
really truly understand where will be at
say precisely 2064 or 2082 and there are
00:37:25
some elements of the science that are
uncertain in that way but much more important
00:37:29
is the open question of what we will do
because the main driver of climate change
00:37:34
for now and for the very foreseeable
future is how much carbon we put into the
00:37:37
atmosphere so on some level that should
be comforting empowering because it tells
00:37:42
us that we are in control of the system and
you know sometimes I hear from deniers
00:37:46
and climate skeptics who say oh we're
just seeing our natural cycles this is an
00:37:51
epidemic it's not human caused and to them
I say well if if that were the case I
00:37:55
would be truly terrified because it
would mean we we would have no leverage
00:37:59
a poll to change it and if we're still
heading on the same track that we're adding
00:38:02
on now which is to say We're following the
trajectory that in previous errors that
00:38:07
I'm sorry history led to mass extinctions
where 95 or 97 percent of all life on
00:38:11
Earth. Died and we had no control over it
that would be absolutely awful on some
00:38:16
level it's comforting and even empowering
that we are doing this damage on the
00:38:20
other hand we are doing this damage
and we're doing that damage knowingly
00:38:24
understanding at some level exactly how
much we're damaging the future of the
00:38:27
planet and I think you know that's terrifying
in its own right so up until recently
00:38:32
I would say that you know the kind of like
biases that I mentioned earlier were one
00:38:36
problem I also think that the
sense that we had that this was
00:38:38
a long term problem was also a reason
we didn't take sufficient action but
00:38:43
a 3rd I think probably critically important
part of that explanation is that until
00:38:47
very recently the economists of the world
believe that fast action on climate would
00:38:51
be very expensive because it would
mean massive upfront investment in
00:38:55
infrastructure projects
mill like an R. And D.
00:38:58
And renewable energy and it would also
mean foregoing some amount of economic
00:39:01
activity in the case of say retiring
00:39:04
a coal plant that was not yet
ready to be retired I think for
00:39:07
a long time in the West at least our policy
makers have really been focused on the
00:39:10
north star of economic growth and so if
they heard from their economic advisors
00:39:14
that action on climate would be damaging
to that growth they were really unwilling
00:39:18
or unlikely to do it but that conventional
wisdom has actually been totally
00:39:21
reversed just over the last few years such
that every economist you talk to now is
00:39:25
quite clear when they say that you know
faster action will be better for us even in
00:39:29
a quite short time there was
00:39:30
a report in 2018 suggesting we could add
$26.00 trillion dollars the global economy
00:39:35
through up to the carbonation and the
government of Indonesia which is a kind of
00:39:38
a case study in the developing world
00:39:40
a representative story because over the
last 2 decades they have have their poverty
00:39:44
rate they've doubled their per capita
income but they've done that by
00:39:47
industrializing which means that they've
also doubled their emissions but they say
00:39:50
now that they could have their emissions
by 2030 which would put them ahead of the
00:39:55
commitments that they made under the Paris
Accords and that's notable because at
00:39:58
the moment no nation in the world is on
track to meet those accords they can meet
00:40:01
those accords and even improve upon those
commitments and still grow at 6 percent
00:40:05
per year which is faster than the 5 percent
per year they've been growing over the
00:40:08
last 2 decades when they double their per
capita income so I think that. Shows you
00:40:12
just how different the calculus is
even in the developing world where for
00:40:15
a very long time it was understood you'd
have to sort of choose between economic
00:40:19
growth that holds people out of poverty
and responsible behavior when it came to
00:40:23
climate now it seems we're starting to
understand that we don't have to choose
00:40:26
between them we can grow
quite quickly and still grow
00:40:29
a sponsor Glee so long as we make the
right decisions now the question is how
00:40:33
quickly will that conventional wisdom
circulate and transform the thinking of
00:40:36
policymakers around the world because it
can't just be the government of Indonesia
00:40:40
is doing making those changes it has
to be all of us that's the nature of
00:40:43
a problem it's all encompassing Let's take
00:40:45
a break now you're listening to the science
edition of Press Conference USA I'm the
00:40:49
voice of America I'm
Rick Penta Layo Here's
00:40:52
a reminder that press conference USA is
available for free download from our
00:40:57
website V.O.A. News dot com slash P.C.
00:41:00
USA or from i Tunes We hope you'll get in
touch with us either through Facebook or
00:41:06
Twitter at Carol Castillo wiil way or by
sending us an old fashion email to P.C.
00:41:11
USA at V.O.A.
00:41:12
News dot com Now back to the science edition
of Press Conference USA Today we're
00:41:18
talking with author David Wallace
wells about his bestselling book The
00:41:22
uninhabitable earth life after warming
David you say in your book that by the end
00:41:27
of the 21st century parts of the Earth
could be nearly uninhabitable while other
00:41:33
parts inhospitable Could you please explain
this well you know in small parts of
00:41:37
the planet that those effects are already
the case there are parts of sub-Saharan
00:41:41
Africa they're dealing with really
catastrophic droughts and famines and you know
00:41:45
you were there exactly uninhabitable yet
but they are quite difficult to live in at
00:41:49
the moment but the impacts are going to
accumulate quite quickly those studying the
00:41:53
effect of direct heat which is
00:41:55
a sort of underappreciated impact of climate
change say that many of the biggest
00:41:59
cities in South Asia and the Middle East
will be unlivable as soon as 2050 which
00:42:03
means that in summer you will be able
to walk outside in the city is without
00:42:07
risking he struck and possibly death and
these are said he is the sum of 101215
00:42:11
1000000. People living which is one reason
why the UN think that just by 2050 which
00:42:15
is you know it sounds
00:42:16
a little bit far away but it's just it's
really not that we could have as many as
00:42:19
200000000 climate refugees and they think
it's possible you could have as many as
00:42:23
a 1000000000 which is in many people as
live today in North and South America
00:42:26
combined and I think those estimates are
00:42:28
a bit high but even if you take the low
number 200000000 and divided in half it's
00:42:33
still 100 times the size of the Syrian
refugee crisis that is completely
00:42:37
transformed European politics and I think
that's something that people who are sort
00:42:40
of more casually engaged in the subject
don't entirely appreciate it's not just
00:42:44
a matter of discrete
impact say a wildfire here
00:42:47
a drought there it's that these things
really cascade onto one another such that
00:42:52
a drought produces
00:42:53
a famine produces social instability
produces political instability produces
00:42:58
a civil war and that state then is unable
to deal with future impacts another
00:43:04
weather event that might come and that's
what we're dealing with across the globe
00:43:08
at the moment you know there aren't
many parts of the planet that are being
00:43:11
impacted by so many different climate
impacts at once but there's really good
00:43:15
research suggesting that by the end of the
Century 2100 there will be parts of the
00:43:18
planet that could be hit by 6 climate driven
natural disasters at once and I don't
00:43:23
think there's really any government on the
planet at the moment that seems capable
00:43:26
of dealing with those kinds of shocks on
any kind of regular basis and I say that's
00:43:31
2100 but just to put it
in the present tense
00:43:33
a little more concretely you know we hear
00:43:35
a lot when we talk about extreme weather
about this figure 500 year storm it's
00:43:39
a quite useful baseline for
understanding how intense
00:43:41
a storm is immune system that's supposed
to come only once every 500 years and that
00:43:46
means once during the entire history of
Europeans living in America 500 years ago
00:43:51
was when Europeans 1st settled here
which means we're talking about
00:43:53
a storm that's supposed to hit only wants
during the entire colonial period the
00:43:57
entire you know extermination of the native
population and the American Revolution
00:44:02
the building of
00:44:02
a slave's empire the Civil War industrialization
World War One World War 2 the Cold
00:44:07
War the end of history September 11th
financial crisis we're talking about
00:44:11
a well. Event that was supposed to happen
only once during all that time and just
00:44:15
in the last 3 years just in Houston they've
had 3500 year storms and that tells you
00:44:19
just how unprecedented the weather system
that we're living in Already today is and
00:44:23
it's going to get we know from the science
it's going to get dramatically worse in
00:44:27
the decades ahead when I noticed David
that there are aspects of climate change
00:44:31
global warming the team to play into each
other for example you're talking about
00:44:35
ice melt in the Arctic and Antarctic and
of course ice melt leads to sea level
00:44:40
change because she levels so they'll be
less land for people to inhabit and then on
00:44:45
top of that you have as you mentioned the
$500.00 or 1000 years storms you have
00:44:50
extreme climate going on you have
00:44:52
a devastating hurricanes floods and they
all seem to play into each other one fires
00:44:58
again is another example in California
seem to be ongoing So in other words it
00:45:03
seems as though it's going to be difficult
to grab one aspect of the solution to
00:45:07
try to solve all these problems well that's
why I think you know the best solution
00:45:11
is really reducing our carbon as radically
as rapidly as we can because that's the
00:45:15
main driver of all of it what we're trying
to do is just deal with those problems
00:45:20
just adapt to this new normal which is
an ever evolving normal ever worsening
00:45:23
normal I think yeah you're exactly right
it's going to be very very hard and I
00:45:27
recently wrote up
00:45:27
a story in New York Magazine about the
California wildfires in particular I talked
00:45:32
to Eric our city is the mayor of L.A.
00:45:34
And has this really I mean his life story
tells the story very precisely He's 48
00:45:39
years old not an old guy the year he was
born 60000 acres of forest burned in
00:45:44
California here he was elected mayor in
2013 it was 600000 acres here he was
00:45:50
reelected mayor in 2017 it was 1200000
acres and last year 2800 it was 1900000
00:45:56
acres and he told me very straightforwardly
point blank there's no amount of
00:46:01
firefighters we can hire no amount of fire
engines we could buy the amount of brush
00:46:06
we could clear that will stop this he said
the only thing that will stop this is
00:46:10
when the climate system. Planet he said
probably long after we're gone relaxes into
00:46:15
a more predictable weather state and I think
that gets exactly to your point which
00:46:19
is to say if we're going about this trying
to deal with one impact by impact we're
00:46:23
going to be overwhelmed by how much worse
each impact is getting because of how
00:46:27
rapidly the climate is changing
if we have any hope of living in
00:46:30
a kind of stable happily habitable planet
we need to dramatically reduce the amount
00:46:34
of carbon we're producing so that all of
these impacts are much less intense when
00:46:38
they do hit so we have only Category 5
hurricanes rather than category 6 and
00:46:42
category 7 Harkins so that we only have
1900000 acres in California burning every
00:46:47
year rather than 10000000 acres by 2050
which is what the science projects if we
00:46:52
don't change course there's these and
science suggesting that we could have 75
00:46:55
percent of the entire state of California
would be burning every year by the end of
00:46:59
the century if we don't change course
and I think that's a little bit of
00:47:01
a kind of an ignorant estimate but it also
reflects just how bad these trajectories
00:47:06
are if we continue on the path that we're
on our only hope is to change course and
00:47:10
change those trajectories which will affect
every impacts from drought and salmon
00:47:14
to wildfire and all the rest of it David
some climate scientists of the earth is
00:47:18
close to or has gone beyond the tipping
point where the effects of climate change
00:47:23
are irreversible. Nor has this happened
personally I that's not how I see it but
00:47:30
I don't want to present myself as
00:47:31
a more informed expert than scientist but
I would say that the majority of climate
00:47:36
scientists don't see that as being the
situation today they're worried that there
00:47:40
are tipping points some of them say they'll
be between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius of
00:47:45
warming some say between 3 and 4 others
further points down the line where what are
00:47:50
called feedback loops could kick in and
these are natural systems that could
00:47:55
accelerate the pace of warming so to take
one example the ice in the Arctic and
00:47:59
Antarctic is important as
00:48:01
a store of water and it's why the sea levels
are where they are today but it's also
00:48:05
white which means it reflects
00:48:07
a lot of sunlight back into outer space if
all of that ice melts it will. Replaced
00:48:12
by dark water and dark water absorbs much
more heat than white ice this is the
00:48:17
reason why you know if you wear
00:48:18
a black shirt during the summer you're
hotter than if you are white shirt so if we
00:48:22
lose all of that Arctic and Antarctic ice
then the planet will be absorbing more
00:48:25
sunlight all the time which would make it
considerably hotter than it would be if
00:48:30
it was reflecting some of that that's one
of these so-called feedback loops there
00:48:33
are
00:48:33
a number of others probably some are already
being triggered at the moment but the
00:48:37
most dramatic ones we think are still
00:48:39
a ways away but it's just another reason
why we need to more rapidly decarbonise so
00:48:44
that we can try to avoid triggering these
feedback loops which could push us you
00:48:48
know much much further into the danger
zone than we are today there was
00:48:51
a really terrifying paper I read
00:48:52
a few months ago suggesting that I think
is about $1300.00 parts per 1000000 of
00:48:57
carbon in the atmosphere which is well
more than we have today but which we could
00:49:00
conceivably reach by sort of the early
middle next century the planet could
00:49:03
entirely lose its ability to form clouds
and that impact alone could add 8 degrees
00:49:09
Celsius of warming to our climate change
which would mean we'd probably be at about
00:49:13
5 degrees of warming already that would
mean you know $600.00 trillion dollars in
00:49:17
global climate damages which is double
all the wealth that exists in the world
00:49:20
today it would mean twice as much war or
more all the other impacts I mentioned and
00:49:24
yet all of
00:49:24
a sudden rapidly the loss of cloud formation
the loss of the former clouds would
00:49:30
bring us from that level 5 degrees to 13
degrees warming which would practically
00:49:34
speaking make huge parts of the planet
maybe all the way up through the northern
00:49:39
latitudes and into the Arctic and Antarctic
circles unlivable for humans as we live
00:49:44
today with the grueling crisis as you
describe it in your book David there seems to
00:49:48
be
00:49:48
a growing down regarding climate science and
even science in general especially here
00:49:53
in the U.S. a Number of what some call
climate skeptics have been getting
00:49:57
a lot of attention in recent times how do
you respond to those who may insist that
00:50:01
if there is climate change it's not
necessarily caused by humans and that it's
00:50:06
a normal natural phenomena that the earth
has experienced this many times in the
00:50:10
past well I'm. I'd say it's actually quite
an easy argument to refute in the sense
00:50:15
that even if you just took the very basic
understanding of the greenhouse effect
00:50:19
that was 1st identified in the middle of
the 19th century by John Tyndall and you
00:50:23
know what and him put into that equation
the amount of added carbon that we've got
00:50:28
into the atmosphere you would get
00:50:30
a prediction very very close to exactly the
amount of temperature rise that we have
00:50:33
today so there's no need to look for
additional explanations or you know additional
00:50:38
causes we have
00:50:39
a very very neat prediction that could have
been falsified by our experience and in
00:50:43
fact has been confirmed by our experience
I think we know everything we know about
00:50:47
the way that these gases work tell us that
the earth will respond this way and it
00:50:51
has I think that on the question of climate
skepticism climate and I know more
00:50:55
generally you know I think that it's true
that our politics is captive to some of
00:50:59
these interests but when I look
at the polls I see actually
00:51:02
a very different story you know 73 percent
of Americans believe climate change is
00:51:05
real and happening now 70 percent of Americans
are concerned about it those numbers
00:51:10
are up 15 points since 2015 they're up
8 points since last year that's really
00:51:16
dramatic movement by any political
science standard and especially dramatic
00:51:20
considering that we live in such partisan
tribal eyes times that very few people
00:51:24
have ideas about anything going on in
the world that isn't processed through
00:51:28
a partisan lens and if we have 73 percent
of Americans who believe the climate
00:51:32
change is real when one of our 2
major parties is really committed to
00:51:35
a program of at least skepticism if
not outright denial that's really
00:51:38
a remarkable figure it also tells you that
27 percent of Americans don't believe in
00:51:43
climate change and that number is considerably
higher than I would want but it's
00:51:47
about the same number as the number of
Americans who believe that aliens live among
00:51:51
us 26 percent of Americans believe that
Allianz live among us and we don't give
00:51:55
veto power over our climate policy or our
NASA policy to those people who believe
00:52:00
Allianz live on earth we should be giving
00:52:02
a veto power to those people who believe
that climate change isn't real it's the
00:52:06
same number of people probably in
00:52:07
a lot of cases it's the same people and
when I see much more robust. Support for
00:52:12
belief in climate change in action on
climate change that I think our discourse
00:52:16
necessarily reflects I think because we
are used to telling every story through
00:52:21
a partisan lens and partisanship should
just there's one side believes one thing
00:52:24
and the other side believes the other
thing I actually find the bigger problem
00:52:28
bigger than climate skepticism certainly
bigger than climate denial is climate
00:52:32
complacency so when I see that 73 percent
of Americans are worried about climate
00:52:36
change I think why are those people more
concerned why is it that the median
00:52:40
commitment that the average American is
willing to make to fight climate change is
00:52:44
$1.00 a month most are not
willing to contribute $10.00
00:52:47
a month to to fight it and because of the
changing economic dynamics I talked about
00:52:51
earlier I'm not sure that we'll need to ask
those people to even commit that amount
00:52:55
of money towards fighting
climate change but it's
00:52:57
a sign of how weakly committed to the story
we are so when I look at the landscape
00:53:02
I see the problem of
climate complacency as
00:53:05
a much much bigger one much more important
to solve than one of skepticism and
00:53:09
denial and I think that giving those people
stronger sense of urgency of just how
00:53:14
much is at stake just how fast it's moving
just how threatened everything we take
00:53:18
for granted about our lives today is by
this force will I hope make our commitments
00:53:23
to action on climate more intense and
from that we can start to evolve
00:53:26
a more ambitious climate policy which we're
already seeing and we're seeing that in
00:53:30
part because of the climate protest
movements the unprecedented climate protest
00:53:34
movements of the last 6 or 9 months
which are happening in the U.S.
00:53:37
In the form of the Sunrise movement but
also in Europe with climate strikes the
00:53:41
background sound Bergan in the U.K.
00:53:43
With extinction rebellion these are really
amazing signs of progress which I would
00:53:48
not have honestly believed if you
had told me that they were coming
00:53:51
a year or so ago I like many other people
who thought that our time in politics
00:53:54
were totally inert but in fact not only
are those people out in the streets
00:53:57
marching they're having
00:53:59
a concrete impact on our politics so that
you know Greg has persuaded the president
00:54:04
of the E.U.
00:54:05
To commit I think one out of every 3
euro's to mitigating climate change.
00:54:12
Extinction rebellion in the U.K.
00:54:13
Has forced the British parliament to declare
a climate emergency and put together
00:54:17
a plan for how to get 0 carbon emissions
by 2050 which isn't quite ambitious enough
00:54:21
for me but is a remarkable statement
understand given where they were just
00:54:24
a few years ago and in the US we have the
Green New Deal which is you know it's
00:54:28
a preliminary document we still have to
fill out the details exactly what it means
00:54:32
for policy is not yet clear but as
00:54:34
a statement of ambition is so much
bigger and grander and more serious than
00:54:37
anything the Democrats have put forward
before that I think it's hard not to be
00:54:41
exhilarated by
00:54:41
a someone who cares about climate change
and honestly just as remarkable that all
00:54:45
the major presidential Democratic
presidential candidates have endorsed that
00:54:49
statement of ambition at least as a
statement of ambition at least as
00:54:52
a rhetorical commitment which puts the
needs of science 1st rather than defining
00:54:57
our climate policy through what we think
of as politically feasible I think that
00:55:02
reversal is quite dramatic quite exciting
and you know I would have said that it
00:55:06
was even possible
00:55:07
a year ago that's how dramatic the movement
has been David Wallace Wells I want to
00:55:11
thank you so much for taking time to
talk with us today and for sharing your
00:55:14
wonderful insights thanks so much for having
me that was David Wallace Wells author
00:55:19
of the bestselling book The uninhabitable
earth life after warming which is
00:55:23
available from your favorite online bookseller
He joined us today by Skype and I'm
00:55:28
afraid that's all the time we have for the
science edition of Press Conference USA
00:55:33
This is for pantaloon reminding you to be
sure to join Carol Castillo next week for
00:55:38
another press conference USA
on The Voice of America.
00:56:18
Union official converge. On this year's
capital this weekend for an African Union
00:56:25
summit that begins the
operational phase of
00:56:29
a long sought Continental free trade
zone about 50 heads of state were
00:56:36
due to arrive Friday it's
00:56:37
a day behind their foreign ministers for
Sunday some of the African continent
00:56:42
a free trade area by Enter grading the
economies and reducing trade barriers such
00:56:47
as tariffs the pact aims to increase
employment prospects living standards and
00:56:52
opportunities for the continent's 1200000000
and to make Africans more competitive
00:56:58
regionally and globally as well. U.S.
00:57:02
President Donald Trump said Friday he is
considering issuing an executive order to
00:57:06
add a question on citizenship to the U.S.
00:57:10
Census says
00:57:11
a court deadline approaches for the
administration in its one leg work around of
00:57:17
U.S. Supreme Court's decision
blocking the inclusion of
00:57:20
a citizenship question on next year's census
Sherman explains why the census is so
00:57:26
important the census is held once every 10
years and it's used to distribute seats
00:57:33
in the House of Representatives among
the states and it's used to distribute
00:57:37
hundreds of billions of dollars
00:57:39
a year in federal money the Census
Bureau itself has said that adding
00:57:43
a citizenship question to the census would
have the effect of depressing immigrant
00:57:48
participation and also
participation of Hispanics in
00:57:52
a peace March Sherman NATO and Russia
did not make any breakthrough on the
00:57:56
Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
and talks at the Alliance headquarters
00:58:01
especially speaking to reporters
Friday in Brussels after
00:58:04
a meeting of the NATO Russia Council.
Stoltenberg said that that we did not see any
00:58:09
sign of Russia being willing to come
back into compliance with the I.N.F.
00:58:14
Treaty this is the news. California
of California continue to feel
00:58:20
dozens of aftershocks following
00:58:22
a 6.4 magnitude earthquake Thursday morning
residents were jolted is wall shook
00:58:29
store shelves crumbled and several fires
broke out more than 100 aftershocks take
00:58:34
in their region since the
initial joy there is about
00:58:37
a one in 20 chance that this location
will be having an even bigger good quake
00:58:43
within the next few days that we have
not yet seen the biggest earthquake.
00:58:48
Seismologist Lucy Jones she says this was
the largest earthquake to strike Southern
00:58:52
California in 20 years a new U.N.
00:58:55
Report accuses the government of Venezuela
in President Nicolas Maduro of extra
00:59:00
judicial killings and repressive measures
aimed at neutralizing political opponents
00:59:05
Lisa slime reports for V.O.A.
00:59:07
From the council and Geneva Michelle
Bachelet the UN human rights chief says
00:59:12
perceived political opponents and human
rights defenders are subject to threats
00:59:17
smear campaigns and widespread abuse including
torture sexual violence killings and
00:59:23
enforced disappearance accessible legal
force has repeatedly been used against
00:59:27
protesters my office has also documented
the excessive use of force in the context
00:59:33
of security operations by special action
forces with multiple killings mainly of
00:59:38
young men but still it warns Venezuelans
will continue to flee their country and
00:59:43
unprecedented numbers if the abuse does
not end and the dire economic situation
00:59:49
does not improve the system for V.O.A.
00:59:51
News Geneva and responding Venezuela's
vice minister of Foreign Affairs William
00:59:56
Casti.
Notes
This material may be protected by copyright law (Title 17 U.S. Code).
- Access-restricted-item
- true
- Addeddate
- 2019-07-06 06:12:44
- Audio_codec
- mp3
- Audio_sample_rate
- 64000
- Bad_audio
- false
- Identifier
- VOA_Global_English_20190706_050000
- Next
- VOA_Global_English_20190706_060000
- Num_recording_errors
- 0
- Previous
- VOA_Global_English_20190706_040000
- Run time
- 01:00:00
- Scandate
- 20190706050000
- Scanner
- researcher7.fnf.archive.org
- Scanningcenter
- San Francisco, CA, USA
- Software_version
- Radio Recorder Version 20190602.02
- Sound
- sound
- Start_localtime
- 2019-07-06 01:00:00
- Start_time
- 2019-07-06 05:00:00
- Stop_time
- 2019-07-06 06:00:00
- Utc_offset
- -400
- Year
- 2019
comment
Reviews
There are no reviews yet. Be the first one to
write a review.