tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC February 1, 2016 7:00am-8:01am PST
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you can't even do the fake, oh, i hear turnout is up. >> you're going to have to wait until tonight, chuck. >> good morning once again from des moines. i'm chuck todd here with an old friend, savannah guthrie. >> good to be back together again. >> we're doing an old daily rundown. are we allowed to say it? >> i hope so. a walk down memory lane. >> a great day. tight races on both sides. >> exciting for political dorks like us. let's show you the latest polling. a quinnipiac poll shows donald trump widening the lead over ted cruz. the billionaire businessman with a seven-point edge over the texas senator. "des moines register"/bloomberg poll known as the gold standard in the hawkeye state, makes the race closer. trump leading by five points in that poll, just outside the margin of error. heading into tonight's voting, nearly half of republican voters coming out to caucus say they haven't totally made up their
mind, and that adds some excitement. >> when it comes to the democrats, what a race it's turned out to be wrorb who would have thought a year ago that there was a real chance that hillary clinton could lose iowa to a 74-year-old socialist senator who is not even a registered member of the democratic party. according to the two most recent polls, it's not only possible but plausible. one poll has him leading by three points. "des moines register" has clinton up three. msnbc will have live continuous coverage all day long. our team is here in des moines. welcome, hunt, sanders, and of course, guthrie. >> let's go to kerry sanders in iowa, two hours northeast of where we'll see donald trump in just a few hours. kerry, good morning. >> well, good morning, and folks have already started to line up inside here, where they're going to hear donald trump give as much of a pep rally as a political speech. some of those lined up are
telling me why they're here, and it's sort of an interesting peek into the crowds that you see show up. first of all, i spoke to michelle, 55 years old. she's a grandmother, a homemaker, standing in line here with a trump sign in her hand. i asked her, well, so you have made up your decision. will you be caucusing tonight? yes, indeed, i made my decision. i said, so it's for trump. she said, oh, no. not at all. i said, you're standing here holding a trump sign. she said i want to see all of those out on the stump. she has her grandson with her. she said she's going to be voting for cruz. the reason she says she's going to be adding that vote for cruz is she says what she wants to do at the caucus is actually place her vote for fiorina, but she says she feels a vote for fiorina winds up helping donald trump. all very confusing. then another voter standing here, his name is mark. first time ever, not even registered, never voted. he says he's been asked by the
trump campaign at his caucus to get up there and to speak on behalf of trump. a little interesting little tidbit here is that he has a 5-month-old son. he's going to take his son with him. his son's name, cruz. of course, nothing to do with ted cruz. the son's name after motley crew. speaking of bands, i'm glad to see the band is back together now. savannah. >> thank you, kerry. full circle. >> here's what we're not going to be doing, smoking in the boy's room. thank you, kerry. let me bring in crikristen welk who has been covering the democratic side of the race. i tell you, the clinton campaign, they seem very confident. i have to say, hillary clinton, you would think the e-mail story hits friday, and it could have rattled her. instead, it was the best clinton i have seen on the campaign trail this year in the last 48 hours. >> chuck, i agree with you completely. last night was really the most re-sounding speech i have heard secretary clinton give since she
started this campaign. she was here in des moines at a high school, 2600 people. they were fired up. they were cheering and screaming. it was the most excitied i have seen her supporters since she started the campaign. it's almost like she saved the best for last. as you say, chuck, her campaign is feeling confident. it's sort of a measured confidence, though. one campaign official telling me her supporters felt this way back in 2008, so that makes them a little jittery. one supporter described it as ptsd, but there are key differences. one is the "des moines register" poll. it shows her with a slim margin. in 2008, it shows barack obama with a slim margin. the second is she has built up this incredibly robust ground game. it's built off the ground game of then-senator barack obama. she has borrowed a pabge from hs playbook, and the third point i'll make is that she has invested a lot of time in iowa. and that's a stark difference
from 2008. this the state where she held her very first campaign event. remember, she went on the listening tour in the beginning. the small, intimate events. then she built up to the big event last night. she has run a very different campaign. at the same time, as you mention, they're feeling jittery when you look at the polls. it's certainly going to be tight. one campaign official said it's out of our hansdz at this point. this is the toughest day. they just have to wait and see what happens. >> all right, the ghost of iowa past lingering over the hillary clinton campaign, for sure. kristen, thank you so much. let's turn to political correspondent kasie hunt because she has been on the trail with bernie sanders. good morning, kasie. good to see you. i think bernie sanders is handling the rhetorical dance over will you win, will you not, pretty well. he says if we get good turnout, yes. if not, no. >> honest, good for him. >> it's a cliche, but that's where we are at this point. listening to kristen talk about how finally clinton supporters
seem to be excited, bernie sanders doesn't have that problem. every single campaign event you walk into with him, people are thrilled to see him. he's cleary having the time of his life. unlike these clinton people who are sort of seem nervous and measured, i think his staff is less confident than they were a week ago going into tonight about how this is going to turn out, but as a candidate, bernie sanders is having a moment he never expected to have. >> he's janice joplin, he's got freedom. he has nothing to lose. hillary clinton has so much to lose if she loses. >> you know that can make you either -- honestly, it usually makes you a better candidate. i think we have seen the bernie sanders over the past couple days be very loose and engaging with his supporters in a way that clinton is not able to be. the question, of course, is whether the young people are going to come out. i will say when canvassing with some young supporters of bernie sanders that come down from minneapolis, we knocked on one door in a des moines suburb and it was a middle aged woman with a young child who said i have
never caucused before, but i'm going out for bernie sanders this time. that's not, you know, what we think of as the stereo typical bernie sanders supporter. i really think having spent the last week and a half basically embedded with people who are talking about why they support bernie sanders and listening to the feedback, there is something very important and big going on in the democratic party and on the left that a lot of the democrats in the establishment of washington completely miss. >> it's been covered up because of the story on the right. you know, we think, and the fact the story on the right -- >> there did seem to be a lull, and all of a sudden, bernie sanders comes roaring back. we know he has the energy and passion. you went door knocking with volunteers. does he have the organization? >> that is obviously the question. they certainly have the effort behind that. i mean, i was at the headquarters yesterday and they all all these canvassing teams going back and ford. they're not the professional organization the clinton campaign is, and the clintons have been using what the obama team did so successfully here in
2008. the question is whether the excitement is going to stack up. no one thinks this is going to be an obama level of turnout. the sanders campaign -- >> very quickly, the clinton campaign has been sort of loving the fact that in the "des moines register" poll, who had the more enthusiastic supporters? clinton, not sanders. so they sort of -- they took some glee back. >> just a little bit. >> just a little bit. >> i haven't heard anything from team clinton in the past couple days. >> let's go to steve kornacki. all the candidates are hoping to win. strong performance tonight. use iowa to catapult them to another state. make it so they become a national candidate. so kornacki, your at the big board. let's go to the road ahead and how iowa shapes it, particularly on the republican side. >> you were just talking a few minutes ago. we talked last hour about the democrats. let's look at the republican side and take a look at the question of who has the most to lose in iowa tonight going forward. i think the answer to that is ted cruz.
we'll explain why. it has to do with this. what ted cruz is trying to do in this campaign is take what has worked in iowa before and then build on it in a way that we haven't seen before. so iowa, you know, is a state, heavy evangelical population in the republican caucuses. tonight, about 60% of attendees are going to be evangelical christians. cruz has really gone after them hard. this is his strategy that worked for rick santorum in 2012, for mike huckabee in 2008. ted cruz needs that to work tonight. needs to win iowa tonight the way those two candidates did in 2012 and 20008. but then the strategy for cruz is to do what they failed to do, the first thing there is to head into new hampshire, the next state up. mike huckabee was a nonfactor in new hampshire in 2008. rick santorum, a nonfactor in 2012. a very secular state. what happened, when they did not do well in new hampshire, it marked them as factional candidates. cruz doesn't have to win new hampshire, but he wants to win iowa.
he wants to do credibly in new hampshire, better than huckabee, better than santorum. then the next phase for him would be to go to south carolina. south carolina is a state where more than two thirds of the participants in the primary on the republican side will be evangelical christians. that's a state where huckabee fell just short in 2008. that pretty much ended his campaign. this is a state where cruz feels he can win iowa, he can be credible in new hampshire. then he can win in south carolina, and what comes after south carolina? you go through the south in the s.e.c. primary states about a month from now. that's the cruz stat aenl, but it really hinges on iowa. if you go into a state that is 60% evangelical christian, and you try to corner the market on the evangelical christian vote, and you lose to donald trump, that does not bode well for you. >> no, but i have been telling people, steve, if cruz wins iowa, he's the guy that will likely finish second in new hampshire, not any of these other supposed establishment guys, because he would be the only guy in his lane competing
in new hampshire. that's why iowa could be so big for him. anyway, steve, good work, sir. let's turn now to a candidate that ted cruz is very worried about right now. his name is ben carson. he was the gop front-runner, arguably, just a few months ago. but you're still here. >> i am. >> you still have a pretty solid core of support. how are you feeling? >> i feel actually very good. we have been around the state before lots of audiences. and a lot of people are shifting. they're moving, because once they get a chance to actually hear me and i get a chance to answer their questions, they say, oh, right. that's so different than what's been portrayed. >> a lot of different candidates from donald trump to ted cruz to marco rubio, are trying to lay claim to that evangelical vote. it's so important here in iowa. do you feel it's genuine? do you feel that abeal on that basis has been genuine, or are you disturbed by some of what
you hear and see on the trail? >> well, you know, i just say to the evangelicals, as i say to everybody, and it comes from jesus christ himself. by their fruit you will know them. you can tell from not what a person says but what do they do? what has their life shown? how do they treat other people? those are the things that really tell you where the heart is. >> let me be direct about it because you have donald trump who is actually, as he says, doing well with the evangelicals. if you look at the fruit of his life, the things he says, the things he does, does he match your test? >> well, let me put it this way. tomorrow morning this time, i want you to ask that same question to whoever you're talking to, because i think there's going to be some big surprises here. >> dr. carson, you're not somebody i feel like blows his top. you don't -- you're not an angry guy. >> used to be. >> right, you talked about that. what donald trump did to you in that two-week period when you were the front-runner was pretty
vicious. >> it was. >> pretty tough. how did you coop your cool? some of your supporters said to me, you know, i wish he would talk back a little bit. i wish he would have fought back harder on trump. what do you say to them? >> i say it all comes out in the wash. and people at some point have to start using this amazing thing god gave us called a brain. to analyze, not to be attracted to the shiny object or to the thing that makes the most noise, but start thinking about your children and your grandchildren. think about the fact that our country is being torn apart by divisiveness, a house divided against itself cannot stand. think about the fact our financial foundation is compromised. this is the first generation in the history of america expected to do worse than their parents, and that's going to be a continuing trend unless we begin to be fiscally responsible again. think about the fact that staying off of the leadership
stage in the world is compromising our positions. >> no lingering -- you have any bitterness towards trump? >> trump is doing what politicians do. politicians do what is politically expedient. that's why i will never be one. i will always do what's right. people can always expect to hear the truth from me. they may not like it, but i'm not going to change. >> you say caucus night might have some surprises. i know you're still in the fight. but there's no question that you have seen the poll numbers drop off from that high when you were the undoubted front-runner. to what do you attribute that? was it attacks from donald trump? was it a question about foreign policy knowledge? >> it was a combination of things. i will put my foreign policy against anybody. and people can go to our website, bencarson.com. i have more policy out than anybody else. it's not a problem. but what happened was an unprecedented concentration of attacks on my character because they couldn't find any scandals. all of which have been debunked. anybody can go back and see
that. and the terrorist attacks, both in this country and abroad. and the concept that a nice person who is soft spoken can't be tough. you know, what a bunch of crap. what you should do is go back and look at a person's life. what have they accomplished? i would be very happy to compare my accomplishments against anyone else running. >> what's your plan going forward? you know the ted cruz campaign, anybody they have identified as a supporter of yours, they're basically saying we love dr. carson. we think he's tremendous, but he can't win. come with us. unite the conservative movement around ted cruz. what do you say to that supporter that may be taking the cruz phone call? >> i would say to that supporter, you are the ones who get to decide who we are as a country. the media doesn't get to decide that. the pundits don't get to decide that, sorry. >> that's all right. these guys get to decide. >> exactly. so listen to your heart.
your heart will tell you what's right for your children and your grandchildren for the future of our country. >> you also said use your brain. do you feel there's a part of the iowa electorate that has been dazzled by someone like donald trump? >> i do believe that. i believe there's a huge shift going on that's going to shock everybody. >> what do you mean? >> i think the iowans will actually sit down before they make the final decision and say, wait a minute, aren't we just doing the same thing we have always done before? wait a minute. we need what we have been looking for. and they'll make the right decision. >> what's your plan going forward? if the polls are what they are, and you're sitting there in fourth place, what's your plan going forward? you have to win somewhere to win the nomination. >> i will always assess where we are. you know, whether i'm going up or whether i'm going down. i will always logically assess where we are and make decisions appropriately. >> has the turmoil inside the campaign set you back a little
bit? >> it did, but no we're in such good shape. you have probably noticed yourself. >> definitely a stabilization. >> policy coming out like crazy. i can get things done. it's fabulous. finances are much better. i mean, i'm loving it right now. >> you used espreet decor. >> whenever we get french, very odd references, so ben carson, good luck tonight. thank you so much for being here. >> i have to say, i have been very moved by how you honored your volunteer. >> it was quite a thing. >> it was -- >> the braden effect. >> it's been heavy. i have to admit, for all of our taf, too. >> everyone was so open and welcoming. i heard from all the candidates, even the democrats. >> you know, we're all americans. >> exactly. >> dr. carson, thank you. >> a lot more ahead on this caucus day in iowa.
for the first time in this election cycle, it's not about the polls or the pundits. we're going to hear from the people. >> ah, the people. we're going to show you what the candidates are up to in the final hours before the caucuses. this unsettling moment where nobody is voting but it's voting night. we'll be right back. why are you all here? to learn, right? so you can get a good job and you're not working for peanuts. well what if i told you that peanuts can work for you? while you guys are busy napping, peanuts are delivering 7 grams of protein and 6 essential nutrients right to your mouth. you ever see a peanut take a day off? no. peanuts don't even get casual khaki fridays. because peanuts take their job seriously. so unless you want a life of skimming wifi off the neighbors, you'll harness the hardworking power of the peanut. (cheering)
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there are some 1500 rallies later. it's now time to caucus in iowa. democrat martin o'malley who is a distant third in the polls made the most campaign stops, believe it or not, followed by bernie sanders and hillary clinton. >> on the republican side, a similar story. those far behind in the polls have made the most stops.
rick santorum, 241 stops, mike huckabee, 212. donald trump in the lead, has made only 56 campaign stops in the past year. >> but he stid day at a holiday inn express. >> that's a head scratcher for what you're supposed to do in iowa to win votes. let's bring in jose diaz-balart, andrea mitchell, host of andrea mitchell reports on msnbc. mark halpern, and with all due respect host, and molly ball, politics writer with the atlantic. good morning. >> word of warning, it's '80s hair band day. a motley crue reference earlier. >> i name dropped freddie mercury in my piece on trump today, so i feel like we're even. >> where do we begin? should we start on the democratic side? hillary clinton with some moentm here late in the game? >> i went to the same event kristen welker went to last night, and i didn't have the same glowing review of the event as she did. it's a subjective thing, but i think bernie sanders, every
event is energized and enthused and the same message that he had not just at the beginning of the campaign, but the beginning of his krier. she's still working to find the right message, but her organization has been good. i have been impressed throughout the cycle at the quality and energy of the people working for her campaign. >> i was thinking when i saw the clinton campaign going, 2,600 people. i thought, isn't that average? when i heard that, i was like, yeah, vampire weekend was with sanders a couple nights ago, and that thing, i saw cruz people and rubio people going, oh, man. they were jealous. >> exactly. and he joins in singing this land is your land. look, i agree, mark, that she was in that mode where the speech was sort of all over the place, and her voice was high pitched. so it was -- maybe it felt better in the hall than watching it, but out there, but i don't know about that last final event. bill clinton introduced her. look, she's wrapping up with a
big crowd, and they are better organized on the ground. so again, it gets down to the same thing you see in trump versus cruz. who is going to turn out and how committed are they? and we do see more enthusiasm and more commitment in the last poll, for her. >> that to me was the biggest conventional wisdom upturn. whose supporters were more enthusiastic, clinton, not sanders. and i remember, they said let's break down the very enthusiastic and the fairly. and even among the very enthusiastic, clinton topped there. i thought her energy, considering what happened friday, which could have been something debilitating, her energy over the last 24 hours has been impressive. >> she really has stepped it up. she's counting othe idea there's a silent majority in the democratic party of rank and file reliable democratic voters. we don't necessarily hear from them because they don't
necessarily go to rallies, but they always vote. they may be moderate democrats rather than the liberal democrats, but you meet these people who are totally out of step with the tenor of the times we talk about, the anger, the fear, the unruly sort of extremism. these are people who say, why does everybody keep shouting about everything and insulting everybody? these are people who want a sort of more centrist message. >> that makes sense because if you look at her closing argument, one of her lines was stick with me, stick with what works. which is a little different -- >> a status quo message. >> but to your point, maybe that's working or will work with the audience. >> there are a lot of people who say what steady past we have been seeing for decades is not working. maybe it is time for something. the question is, how much enthusiasm do you need to have to go out and caucus, especially in a democratic caucus, where they're so lengthy and complicated, and if there's a storm coming, how much enthusiasm do you need to have to take all of those steps?
>> we're all dining out on anecdotes. the worst part of the last 24 hours, but my favorite one having to do with this, talking to someone in mt. pleasant, and i said how do you think mt. pleasant is going to do? he said, the bernie people are so loud and proud. i don't hear from as many -- it goes to this point. is it a dean phenomenon? you know, with bernie, or is it, no, the loud and proud is standing for something. >> the other thing that really strikes me is women. i'm running into women, her base, her long-standing supporters, and a lot of them are very enthusiastic. they're with her, but there are some who have clinton fatigue. >> they're in like with her. they are in like with her. >> in our poll, the bloomberg politics/"des moines register" poll, it's anciege, not gend. young people, regardless of gender, are for him. the big question is the mechanics is will young people
go home to caucus or stay and caucus at school. if they stay and caucus at school, it will keep him from winning. they have to go home, because of the way the caucuses work. >> can they skip class today and go out, right? they don't want them in johnson county. >> got to spread them around the state in order to pick up delegates and make it matter. i will say i have found the sanders voters and supporters to be the smartest, most engaged voters i have ever met in the caucuses. that gives them a chance to turn out people who as younger voters normally won't vote as reliably. >> we can't ignore the republicans. trump verses cruz. who gets the better of it? >> i think it's so interesting you have ben carson on, and he's in fourth place. he has 10% of the vote, he's really the spoiler. he's taking votes from ted cruz. ted cruz originally took all the votes away from ben carson when
he deflated. you hear from evangelical voters that the attacks on cruz on tithing hurt him with that religious vote, and that carson gives them a safe place to go back to if they call off from cruz. in this tight race, you see trump running well with evangelicals, but they are, to n me, sort of the casual evangelicals. >> more secular evangelicals. >> not secular, but churchgoers, not necessarily activists. >> the rules are changing in iowa. the people who don't go to the 99 counties are ahead. the people who don't go to the 200-plus rallies are ahead. >> i think the most interesting news story out here that has nothing to do with iowa right now comes from our only ann caldwell, political reporter. she was out at the koch donor retreat. listen to this, mark. koch network to consider if it will deploy its war chest in the primary, take down trump. clearly, the koch brothers are no fans of trump. if he comes out of here, can they take him down? >> look, if donald trump wins
tonight, the only story in the republican race is can someone take him down? he's got the potential to run the table with big leads in all the other states. historically, if you win iowa, sometimes there's a backlash. i have believed for a long time that no interest group, no outside group can take down trump, no matter how much they spend. >> why is he putting money in? >> why? >> he's got $11 million between loans and he's finally spending on his campaign. >> he wants to win here. just like clinton, the two front-runners, if they win here, their chances of being the nominee go up astronomically, and being the nominee early rather than going for months fighting it out, a candidate has to take out trump. christie, i continue to believe, may be the right one to do it. >> i tell you, when we saw that fec report that finally came out, you realized why he was in that precarious position. he had a moment, but he didn't have the money to meet the
moment. you have to wonder if only. you know, if only. you're right. let's see what happens after tonight, but if only. >> a difference with sanders, he does have the many to keep going. $33 million cash on hand. he raised $20 million in january alone. stunning moments for that kind of online campaign. >> small donors. >> exactly. >> hang out. we'll see you tonight. coming up, two of the biggest unknowns about 2016 could finally be revealed tonight. >> can bernie sanders disrupt and make hillary clinton feel the bern? or will donald trump be able to seal the deal? and two quick victories of iowa and new hampshire. >> when you're dealing with the caucus caucuses, it comes down to the cliche of voter turnout, but we'll explain why the cliche actually matters this time. every day you read headlines about businesses being hacked and intellectual property being stolen.
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tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern time, iowa voters start selecting candidates through the caucus system. this is nots a primary. >> no, this is not. it's a lot different. and it's heading to your polling place, going into a booth, pushing a button, and hitting vote. here's how it works. >> caucuses are held in places like schools, churches, and government buildings. and it's where voters gather and show up in person to select their candidate. at one of over 1,600 precincts across iowa. in iowa, republicans and democrats caucus very differently. let's start with the republicans. it's easier. they show up to their caucus location and simply cast a secret ballot for the candidate of their choice. delegates are awarded proportionally based on their overall state-wide vote total. pretty straightforward, right? it's basically an old fashioned firehouse primary. now, if only it were that simp frl the democrats.
first, there are pitches from representatives of each candidate. then voters move around the caucus site, let's say a high school gym, and gather with like minded supporters. clinton supporters in one corner, sanders backers in another, o'malley folks in another, and undeclared meet as well. but for example, if martin o'malley can't receive at least 15% support at this site, his supporters can go to another candidate or become undeclared. by the way, this works the same for the undeclared. if they don't get 15%, they have to choose among those who did meet the threshold. this all continues until only viable candidates with at least 15% support or the undeclared group, if they have 15% support, remain. >> and they're always marching. that's what i promise you. they're always marching. >> i'm just a bill on capitol hill. i like that. >> just a clocker goer sitting in the des moines community center.
let's bring in kay henderson. let's go large, large picture. you have been covering iowa caucuses for a long time. i'm not going to say how long. >> 1988 was my first. >> okay. '88 is the one i keep going back to, and i don't remember a caucus season this close on both sides, this unprunpredictable, e '8, which by the way, there are people who still dispute who won the '88 caucuses. >> you had an energetic tell vanjalist, talking about the same things you hear donald trump talking about. you had the status quo guy, bob dole, and another status quo guy, the vice president on the republican side. on the democratic side, a free for all. dukakis finished third. >> that's the idea of three tickets. dukakis got it and got the nomination. >> how you get that ticket is now kind of different.
i mean, we just threw a graphic up that showed those who had actually made the most stops, done the most rallies, met the most people here in iowa, are the ones doing the worst in the polls. it's just everything is taumsy turvy this year. what are we supposed to take away tromthat? >> is it a reflection of our excellent cu celebrity culture. is it a reflection of the people in the race? is it a reflection of 1996 when you had more than half of the people who went to the caucuses on caucus night among republicans vote for a quote/unquote outsider, the buchanan year. you had lamar alexander who was running at the tennessee governor, the outsider. you had a guy make maury taylor. >> oh, the tire guy. i remember him coming to our newsroom with a tire. >> exactly. and you had phil bram from texas. >> i failed the first, the third, and the seventh grade. i remember that stump speech. what part of this, what do you think we don't understand? okay, we're the interlopers
here. >> how much time does she have? >> what do you think for non-iowans, non-professional iowa journalists watching tonight, what do you think we're going to misinterpret. what do you worry about us misinterpreting? >> i think you can't underestimate the importance, the campaign, the people they have chosen to speak on their behalf. if it's somebody that has done something crazy in town, that may turn people off and turn them on to somebody else. >> haven't thought about that. can you imagine? >> all politics being local, really local in this case. >> wait a minute, that guy didn't pick up the dog poop when he walked his dog. >> in my yard. i'm not voting for that guy. >> oh, man. that is all politics. >> kay, thank you so much. appreciate it. >> up next, closely watching that winter storm strengthening in the midwest. we have to get roker out here. >> a question. >> where is roker. >> is weather going to be a factor? we don't have roker.
we do have bill karins. >> i like bill. >> bill will have the forecast coming up. >> going to give me a hard time about that one. shuttle bay doors open... copy that... wow. it's a rogue. 3-2-1 ignition. we have liftoff. throttle up... landing complete. it's a rogue! the 2016 nissan rogue. the compact suv, with all the space you need. her long day as anne. hair stylist starts with shoulder pain when... hey joanne, want to trade the all day relief of 2 aleve with 6 tylenol? give up my 2 aleve for 6 tylenol? no thanks. for me... it's aleve.
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who's with me?! yay! the complete balanced nutrition of great tasting ensure. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure. take life in! one of the wild cards we're watching today has to do with the weather. it's actually not the candidates themselves. it's this uncertainty that mother nature might have a trick up its sleeve here in the midwest. and of course, chuck just asked for al roker. >> no, i don't want roker. i want cakarins. >> right, chuck is like, bill, but then he's like -- >> yeah. well, here's all we need to know, bill. number one, what time does the snow start? that's important. number two, when does the blizzard start? >> yes, a lot of people want to know how their day is going to go tomorrow once we're into the blizzard. let me start with the blizzard warnings. mason city, ft. dodge, under
blizzard warnings. dubuque under winter storm warnings. the radar doesn't show much if anything over iowa yet. we are watching some, a little bit of snow breaking out in areas of nebraska and northern kansas. it is on the way eventually. here's the snowfall map. this is how the snow will fall throughout the entire storm. the southern half of iowa, southeastern iowa, you're clear. no problems whatsoever. it's from des moines northwards that we get the issues out of the storm. as far after the timing is going to go, let me break it down for you here. light snow or rain starts during the caucus. 7:00 p.m., the doors shut. during when the people are locked in, that's when we'll be watching light rain and snow beginning. heavier snow is overnight, though. even after midnight, and then the blizzard conditions and winds will pick up on tuesday. let's break down the timing, go throughout the day today. the clouds increase, then by the time we get to 7:00 p.m. this evening, temperatures are mild. the roads will be fine even if we break out in snow when people are caucusing. then 10:00 p.m. time period as people are wrapping up and it's
ending, i don't think we'll have issues add all for any of the people going out to caucus this evening. what will be interesting is what do the candidates do? do they stick around for tomorrow morning, or do they get on jets and get out of town to avoid the big storms themselves? >> remember a few caucuses ago, i got stuck in cincinnati for two extra days. >> yeah. >> on the way in between iowa and new hampshire. >> candidates, also pundits. what about chuck? >> it's not about us. >> yes, it is. >> all right, bill. i tell you, all weather is local. not just all politics. all weather is local. bill karins, thank you, boss. >> coming up, none other than tom brokaw will join us to talk about why we should still trust the state of iowa to start this process. >> but first, get excited. chuck, java joes' other soup of the day. it's an interesting one. red pepper gouda. we talked about loaded baked potato, but i didn't see that coming. did you? >> this is a done deal for me. a little spice, a little cheese.
>> first, i love cheese soup. don't you? >> always, always. you always want the cheese soup, but with a little spice in it. maybe that's a premonition of tonight. we'll have a little spice in our results. >> you didn't make a joke about it feels gouda. i feel like you have matured and grown. >> you're right. >> bag right after this. dear, why don't we switch to directv? now mother, we are settlers. i've settled for cable all my life. but directv has been number one in customer satisfaction over cable for 15 years. we find our satisfaction elsewhere. the boy has his stick and hoop. the girl - her faceless doll. and you have your cabbages. and you...have your foot stomping. i sure do. (vo) don't be a settler. get rid of cable and upgrade to directv. call 1-800-directv.
the nbc news projected winner of the iowa democratic caucuses, former vice president walter mondale. >> tonight, it is a launching platform on the republican side for senator bob dole, who wins an impressive victory. >> iowa senator tom harkin won the caucus last night. >> senator bob dole is the winner last night in the gop presidential campaign. >> texas governor george w. bush is the winner in iowa. >> it has been a triumphant night for massachusetts senator
john kerry. our projected winner of the iowa caucuses by a very impressive margin. >> tom brokaw, you know, not everyone would do so well with the 30-year retrospective. you looked darn good. >> i wouldn't do well with that. >> exactly. on hair alone, i don't think i could survive that. >> i thought they were going to start charging me state income taxes at some point. >> every year, we say, oh, this campaign, it's so wild. we thought 2008 will never see another campaign like it. this year has so much that's just never happened before. let's just start with the reality show host who is poised to win iowa maybe. >> a lot of the conditions have changed, for one thing. we have expanded the universe. can't understate the importance of social media, for example. big impact on politics now. the countries this at a place where we don't like what is going on in washington.
they think the system is broken, it doesn't relate to who they are. it's a perfect opening for somebody like donald trump to come in and anti-establishment person, reality television star, ton of money. but even those people who come out of the system are attacking washington with good reason. ted cruz, perfect example. >> you know, tom, in trying to find parallels to this election, our pal peter harp, one half of our poll, you know, he does keep going back to '68. we want to keep going back to 2008, '92, but you look at '68. and you look at '76, and that whole period. we had distrust of the political system, distrust of washington, the political parties were fractured. you had the fight inside the republican party that's similar today. fight inside the democratic party. we had cultural upheaval. it gave us richard nixon, george wallace, jimmy carter, ronald reagan. you know, george mcgovern in various ways. is that what we're in the midst of? >> i think we are. for some of the same reasons.
by the way. what does not get enough attention in my judgment in this campaign and next week in new hampshire as well is the depth of the commitment that we have in a war. but it's less than 1% of our population. a lot of that turmoil is driven by the war, when we're in a draft time, people were going to war and coming back. now, we have the war, people kind of know it, but it has come home. started with 9/11, and then san bernardino. a great palpable fear out there about terrorism. so that plays to it. big money plays to it as well, quite honestly. folks figure, you know, if i don't have a gazillion dollars to contribute to some candidates, i'm not going to be a part of all this, and then they deadlike in washington for the last eight years really in which people would turn their backs on each other. the president and the congress. so all of that, i think, has fed this enormous disenchantment with the system as it now exists. i have gone across iowa, democrats, republicans, tea party members, they say the same thing.
it's broken, we have to fix 2. >> part of me is heartened by the fact people are saying that and getting into it. they say, i want to fix it. i would rather see that than giving up. >> and take back the government. did a profile last night of a man in nevada, just north of here, who has a successful ethanol business. he used to be a dealer, and now he's all ethanol. he has never gone to a caucus in 40 years, but he's gone back to washington. he said, when i met those people, i thought maybe i better get involved. so there's a lot of that as well. >> all right, you're sticking around. let's sneak in one more break here. we'll be back from iowa in just a moment. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in the hudson valley, with world class biotech. and on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies.
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>> you did try to replace me with like a youtube star. >> you're not done. >> you have to get back to home base for the morning. i'll be back with special coverage of the iowa caucus at 5:00 p.m. eastern. tamron hall and chris jansing are up next. tomorrow morning, the winners and losers will be on the today show. >> have a good day. hands down, it was, that's who i was. after one week of chantix, i knew i could quit. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. chantix definitely helped reduce my urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse or of seizures. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you have these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have heart
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legalzoom has your back. for your business, our trusted network of attorneys has provided guidance to over 100,000 people just like you. visit legalzoom today. the legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here. good monday morning. i'm tamron hall. we start with developing news to report to you right now. a new quinnipiac poll out just a short time ago, it shows donald trump now extending his lead over senator ted cruz, 31% to 24%. but of course, trump's big lead is dependent on first-time caucusgoers. that's the big question hovering over the head of the front-runner this morning. he leads c