tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC January 31, 2016 12:00pm-7:01pm PST
if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." good afternoon, i'm steve kornacki in new york. we begin this hour with breaking news. we can now announce that in just four days msnbc will hold a debate ahead of the new hampshire primary. it will be held at the university of new hampshire at 9:00 p.m. eastern time this coming thursday night. all three democratic presidential candidates, bernie sanders, hillary clinton and martin o'malley are expected to attend. but for right now it is crunch
time at this hour out in iowa. the candidates crisscrossing the hawkeye state a day before the first official votes are cast in the 2016 presidential election. the latest numbers of those who say they're probably going to brave the cold to caucus tomorrow night they show it is getting tighter by the second. democrats it is pretty much a tie between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. hillary clinton a few points ahead of bernie sanders heading into this first contest. republican side donald trump is now ahead of ted cruz. >> i think it would be really good to win iowa. i would like to win iowa. >> the old joke that two ways to run, scared and unopposed. the only way i know how to run is scared. >> we feel positive about what it will mean monday night in iowa. >> i think we really have a path towards victory because people want to see this country boldly move in a new direction. >> we are going to keep working
as hard as i can and everybody else until the caucuses conclude tomorrow night. >> and our reporters are out on the ground in iowa following the candidates as they make their final pitches in the hawkeye state. we start with breaking news that we told you about, announcement of four additional democratic debates. the four of the four will be here on nbc this coming thursday night. right now hillary clinton is in a tight race in iowa against bernie sanders. 45-42. that is in the poll known as the gold standard poll just out. in new hampshire bernie sanders enjoys a clear lead. that is why the new debate just before new hampshire could be critical to hillary clinton's campaign. bernie sanders is set to hold the first of his four events in iowa. kasie hunt is at headquarters
live in des moines. let's start with the news a bit of a standoff over the last week with hillary saying she wants more debates with more conditions. how did they arrive at this final compromise here? who gave in on what? do we know? >> reporter: at this point what we know is that the sanders campaign had been extraordinary frustrated with the back and forth with the clinton campaign. they feel like they were unhappy with the dnc earlier. there weren't enough debates scheduled and the ones scheduled were not in primetime, they were on weekends. they felt it was designed to limit their exposure, limit bernie sanders' chance to get in front of the american people. the dynamics of the race have changed over the course of the last six months. all of a sudden you have senator sanders within striking distance of clinton here in iowa.
and now they feel like the clinton campaign or had felt that the clinton campaign was trying to change the rules on them to benefit her. there has been a lot of discussion on whether or not she has come out looking better and stronger. we remember the first democratic debate where he dismissed the e-mails, the question whether it gave her an opportunity to seem bigger and they felt as though now the clinton campaign wanted additional debates but on their terms only. there was an extended back and forth about this, questions about where the debates should be held and questions privately about whether each side was negotiating in good faith. now we have reached the point where the sanders campaign has been assured that they are going to have additional debates that they wanted beyond the one in february into march, april and may and seems we will proceed with this msnbc debate between now and the new hampshire
primary. >> the big news this week and external news was the revelation on friday that there was top secret classified information on hillary clinton's e-mail server. this is a complicated question for bernie sanders because he basically took the issue off the table a few months ago. how is that playing out on the campaign trail in iowa? is that going to be a factor in the outcome tomorrow? >> reporter: >> not sure she is hearing us there. any minute now hillary clinton is campaigning in iowa. we will bring you some of that speech live. we will also check in with nbc's kristin welker following the clinton campaign. we turn now to the republican side. donald trump as we mentioned at the top of the show has opened up a five-point lead over ted cruz with marco rubio in third place, ben carson a distant
fourth place. this the des moines register poll. they always seem to get it right. let's go to carey sanders. the candidate is holding two events in the hawkeye state today. donald trump has been saying all along he wants to win iowa. he was down a month ago. he goes into the caucuses ahead in the final poll. what is the move in the final campaign? >> reporter: really boisterous. the crowd waited outside. it was a sunny day but still cold and nobody complained. the packed the space in here. a lot of cheering. people on the back of the room yelling we love you, donald. he responded saying love you, too, even if you are a guy which is a bit of interesting reflection as he said earlier today on fox news that were he to appoint somebody to the supreme court as president he would like to have somebody who
would not sanction same-sex marriage and let that become a state's issue and not a federal issue. here he has had a large gathering. this is the first of two rallies today. he started out his rally here today by giving $100,000 check to an organization that works with vets and gives them dogs. he got a big cheer. this is part of the $6 million that he raised when he decided not to participate in the debate and rather hold a fundraiser for the vets and got some rather large donations. this is the first $100,000 transfer and it is for dogs that go to soldiers, air men, sea men, folks who returned and need a partner in their return. he did talk today as he does in all rallies. he was on the stage after attending church this morning. he talked about immigration. and he went beyond talking about
a wall with mexico. we heard that over and ever. he talked about what he sees overseas and how isis has infiltrated into countries like germany. >> we all have heart. i think it is sad to see. but when you look at that massive migration, you see so many young, strong men. are they isis? is this a trojan horse? what is going on? we are not going to take any if i'm there. anybody that comes in sadly are going back. they have to go back. they have to go back. >> reporter: and that is a large theme of his campaign that seems to get voters rallied. he once again told folks here that if they are going to do anything with the trump campaign they can't simply be fans showing up here but they have to show up and vote in the caucus. he is trying to motivate people.
we saw as they were coming in there was a table set up asking people are they registered. more importantly, do they know where they need to go for the caucus. a website they set up to help people find one of the sites because sometimes it is in a living room or gymnasium. >> that is the one big x factor made it to caucus eve. will he get the people to turn up and participate? thank you for that report. let's turn to hallie jackson. she is following ted cruz's campaign from des moines where cruz will end the day. one of the events about to get underway in iowa city where the university of iowa is. ted cruz you look at the final poll it would be an upset if he pulls this victory out just a few weeks ago he was ahead in most polls. is there a concern in the cruz
campaign that maybe they peaked too early? >> they are still feeling confident. the idea that they are well organized here in iowa they believe they have the volunteers and the resources to pull out a victory here. it is interesting you talk about the expectations game. a few weeks ago it wouldn't have been surprise figure cruz won by double digits. trump has come on strong largely because of the attacks against ted cruz over the last few weeks. you heard this morning cruz was asked if he is tough enough to take a punch. cruz acknowledged it would make an impact. when you look ahead to tomorrow night half of the likely republican caucus goers say they can still be convinced to change their minds. that is something that could happen tomorrow night. if those folks do change their minds it's ted cruz who stands to benefit the most. listen to what ted cruz talked about earlier today.
>> both trump and marco are attacking me. they are attacking me with all their might. and we're drawing contrasts. and the contrasts are clear and are substantive and policy based. a vote for marco rubio is a vote for amnesty and a vote for donald trump is a vote for obama care. >> reporter: cruz trying to frame this as a two person race, him and donald trump as we look ahead to new hampshire and south carolina. marco rubio obviously would beg to differ a little bit. at this point it is cruz drawing contrasts with trump or as other folks call it attacking him on policy although cruz points out he is not attacking him on personality. >> hallie jackson with the cruz campaign. we will try to bring back in kasie hunt. we were having technical difficulties. what i wanted to ask you about as we have the final des moines register poll out there with hillary clinton ahead by a couple of points if bernie
sanders is going to pull this out tomorrow night maybe he needs one final push to put him over the top. this e-mail development in the last 48 hours with the news that there was a classified information top secret information on hillary clinton's e-mail server. i know bernie sanders basically taken that issue off the table a few months ago. will this have impact in the results monday night? >> democrats at the national level are very privately concerned about what kind of a turn this e-mail issue could take for hillary clinton in the long run. i'm not sure many people have necessarily come around to the idea that they want to embrace bernie sanders as their alternative because of it. i have to say when you talk to people here on the ground in iowa it doesn't explicitly come up. what does come up are questions about -- and we see this in the new iowa poll about confidence in her honesty and
trustworthiness and that is where questions really go to. bernie sanders has hit that from a different direction. he has not gone after the e-mails exclusively but has talked about a series of issues on the campaign trail and painted secretary clinton to someone who has not been courageous on issues important to progressives, things like defense of marriage act, tpp trade deal that many are very against and that it took a little bit of time for secretary clinton to come out against. we talk about the turnout to a certain extent a cliche. what is going to happen is this is a test of just how aggressive and important this outsider anger is going to be. i think you have seen it, i spent a lot of time covering the republicans. i have been on the trail with bernie sanders. while the people who come out and support these different candidates obviously care about different things in many ways there are similarities because
they are all working outside of the political system and have the anger that is directed at it. i think we will find out on monday how real that anger is and whether it is enough to actually motivate new people to participate in the political process because that is the question. iowa in particular with its lengthy caucus process especially on the democratic side where you have to hang out in a gym, see your neighbors, make a decision and maybe try to convince them that your guy is the right one to go with, that is a process that old caucus goers who have gone before are known. hillary clinton has so many of those types of supporters. she is relying on those. the question is whether bernie sanders can motivate new people. you have to hit a number. 65% when barack obama won in 2008 were first-time caucus goers. that is very unusual. sanders would have to come close to that number to pull out a win against hillary clinton. >> when i get those entrance poll numbers that is the first thing i'm looking at, the first
time number, the higher it is the better chance of bernie sanders. and ahead much more on iowa. we are in the home stretch. we will take a look at the county by county battle that hillary clinton and bernie sanders will be waging on monday. and will the caucuses follow history or will they make history? a look at that next. this is a special edition of msnbc, place for politics. i'm billy, and i quit smoking with chantix. i decided to take chantix to shut everybody else up about me quitting smoking. i was going to give it a try, but i didn't think it was going to really happen. after one week of chantix, i knew i could quit. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. chantix definitely helped reduce my urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these,
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can you win the general election? you heard what south carolina had to say about the democrats who are concerned. not going to be able to win in a general election. >> well, in terms of what people are going to get slapped with, look at the front pages today in terms of what secretary clinton is getting slapped with.
here is the point. you know as well as i do it has to do with e-mails. >> he said he doesn't care about hillary clinton's damn e-mails in his words making a connection between tough question asked of him on the eve of the iowa caucuses. to talk about where this race stands in iowa and where it will go i want to bring in former rnc chairman and msnbc contributor. from gold water to the tea party and beyond. let me start with you on the democratic side because it seems like we are at a major pivot point here in this race. if hillary clinton pulls this out tomorrow in her campaign and among the democratic establishment there will be a big sigh of relief. they will say she might take a hit in new hampshire and a new other states but the basic demographics align for her. if she loses tomorrow we are going to be back in a place where you are seeing headlines
about hillary clinton like we saw eight years ago when the wheels came off the wagon. >> i think that is exactly right. and you can also flip that around in terms of bernie sanders. if he wins here almost everybody i think including the clinton campaign assumes he will win new hampshire then he is on some kind of roll and may take a hit in south carolina. the race goes to nevada. that is why this result in iowa is extremely important because bernie sanders i think really needs to win here to make the case that he can carry this all the way to the end and that is why he may have been a little bit aggressive on the e-mails. aggressive in democratic terms, nothing compared to what the republicans are doing. i don't think the e-mail issue plays very much in the democratic primary. a lot of democratic electorate agrees with bernie sanders original statement.
i think that is more an issue for down the road for hillary clinton. >> on the republican side donald trump has talked about the idea of running the table and winning every contest there is on the board. ted cruz has sounded the alarm. there was a meeting of pastors and he told them if you don't stop donald trump in iowa you may not stop him anywhere. if trump wins tomorrow night can he run the table? >> he is close to it. look how it lines up. he already has a substantial lead in new hampshire. he is probably close in nevada although folks have not paid as much attention to nevada. it jumps to south carolina where he has a very strong lead there. if he is able to launch from iowa with a win -- think about this. think about what we are talking about in terms of the constituency involved in the voting here. evangelical conservatives, social conservatives who pretty
much have dictated the terms of engagement in iowa in previous elections are split on donald trump. in other words, you got some who like him and some who don't. the fact that he has some who like him is a dynamic that i think a lot of people didn't calculate for which from donald trump's perspective sets him up very nicely to carry the argument into new hampshire, the swing into south carolina, clean the decks there and then super tuesday baby and it is all but over in terms of the noise because at that point you have the seven southern primary states moved up to super tuesday who joined forces there and it could be not a route but it would be very difficult for other candidates to grab momentum if iowa plays the role we think it will play. >> i have heard republicans say keep an eye on marco rubio. he has been showing life in the polls. some people draw the comparson
going back to '84 on the democratic side but hart was clobbered in iowa but surprise second place and took the momentum and caught fire in new hampshire. any possibility you see rubio surprises us tomorrow, maybe catches cruz for second and then maybe catches fire in new hampshire? >> he can possibly catch cruz in iowa although i think the last polling out of iowa shows that that is still going to be a bit of a challenge. let's say he does, i still don't see him getting past the likes of kasich or christie in new hampshire. if there is no evidence there in the polling to show that marco rubio is making that kind of upward move against those who are in the top three or four position already. i think that that becomes a little more problematic. donald trump is so dominating there i just don't see that electorate saying i'm falling off of trump to someone like
rubio at that point. the battle there is between the christies and the kasichs and trump. cruz to a certain extent in terms of the one, two, three order. >> on the democratic side, the numbers whiz at the "new york times" has an interesting piece looking at coalitions there has been so much talk about black voters in south carolina and across the south being hillary clinton's firewall. what he is saying he has seen is that is true but if you remember in 2008 hillary clinton had the big base of white working-class voters that carried her in states like pennsylvania and ohio. he is seeing that to start to move to bernie sanders. is that something you are picking up on? >> i think bernie is running a working class campaign but has so far done best among the educated middle and upper middle class that obviously particularly students. it's a generational split.
i think that in principle he has an opening to working-class voters but i think that still hasn't been able to crack african-americans. bernie is looking at younger latinoes down the line. if i can say one thing on the republican race, this state here is a big test for cruz. if cruz is second and not a strong second i think that is a real blow to his campaign. if trump wins with a lot of evangelical votes that really shows a kind of split in the christian conservative or religious right movement that is a problem for them. that is why they are going to be working very hard for ted cruz tomorrow because they want to preserve the sense that this is a strong movement that still is dominant in iowa. >> we have almost no time here but a one word answer in each party. your best guess, the winner on the democratic side and winner on the republican side, what is your best guess?
>> i still think clinton very narrowly. >> on the republican side? >> trump. >> i think trump and probably not narrowly. >> we will see you later in the hour. much more ahead on this special sunday edition of msnbc. we are one day away from the iowa caucuses. as we go to break let's listen to senator bernie sanders working to get out the vote in iowa right now. >> women's rights and all of the important issues that are out there. the only way that happens is when millions of people stand up, come together and demand that our government starts working for all of us, not just the 1%. to folks out there whose diabetic nerve pain...
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and looking good, and sandwich and soup and inside jokes, and dan is back! good, clean food pairs well with anything. the clean pairings menu. 500 calories or less. at panera. food as it should be. on the eve of the iowa caucuses donald trump is leading. trump in first place with 28 points. ted cruz behind him at 23 points.
anything can happen in the next 36 hours or so. with trump leading in iowa how far can he go? can he run the table like he is saying he would like to do. some republicans are asking what their party will become if donald trump is their standard there. rand paul expressing his take here on msnbc this morning. >> there are a lot of us who are alarmed by having donald trump as a nominee. i have been saying we have to have a bigger, better, bolder party and that means a more diverse party. i think donald trump will make us the lilly white party which will not win elections and i worry about him scaring people away based on sort of ethnic generalitie generalities. >> joining me to discuss is david from and michael steele. you wrote a piece a little while ago.
i think it was the best summation of the ingredients in the rise of trump. if donald trump wins republican party nomination which is the republican party of donald trump? >> difficult question. donald trump has been signaling he is interested in moving the party to the left on some issues including university health care. he wants to see some kind of universal system the way any other developed country has. rand paul's message, the importance of ethnic inclusion i think that is a wonderful and powerful and true message but republicans have not backed it up. it is astannishing it was left
to donald trump to say universal health coverage is here to stay in the united states. >> what about the republican coalition? if donald trump wins this nomination, does the republican coalition as we know it break apart in a way that gives the general election away or does a new coalition semable around donald trump that could win in november? >> i think it is probably more the latter than the former. there will be breaking up the coalition. there will be those who go running and screaming and pulling their hair as donald trump takes the stage in ohio. i think the realities will be a stronger urging than anything else. the other thing interesting is this is not an ideological election. he is outside of where we have seen a lot of conservatives over
the last four or five years. he has brought something different to the table that is making him attractive to fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. i think that coalition reshapes itself to win in november against a hillary clinton or bernie sanders. >> michael is saying you wouldn't call donald trump a conservative by our basic definitions but you made the point that what donald trump exposed is how out of touch the voices of conservatism are with their base. >> one of the take aways if donald trump does well is donald trump is not a movement conservative and neither are enough republicans to deliver the nomination. there is something else. it is important to remember just how badly the republican party has done inp presidential politics since 1992. they average 53% of the vote.
with landslides in 1972 and 1984. from 1992 to 2012 another six elections the republicans won popular vote precisely one time in 2004. that was about the nearest escape that any had and didn't lose. the republicans do very well where the electorate is smaller. when the big electorate comes out to play the republican party ceased. this is not -- i agree with what rand paul said about donald trump's exclusive message. but to give him his credit, to talk about trumpism and he is shaping up american politics to force confrontation that it is a message that republicans no longer accept. >> i'm trying to play this out to looking ahead to november. the camp that says donald trump is electoral poison to republicans look at november,
new mexico, colorado, states with emerging hispanic populations saying you are kissing those good bye. the case for trump being electable would be pennsylvania, michigan, ohio. these are the kinds of voters disconnected who maybe he brings back? >> maybe -- i'm going to take a less microview. the election this reminds me of, what is happening this year looks a lot like 1968 when the democratic party met the new politics of the antiwar movement. in '68 the old politics managed to win. it became george mcgovern's party and more moved into the democratic party. states like vermont became the most democratic state. i think we are going to see something similar if donald trump is the nominee. a certain number of professional
people moving out of the republican party feeling more comfortable with hillary clinton and a lot of blue collar people, not all of them white finding the republican party a more congenial home. >> thank you both for joining us. much more ahead on this special sunday edition of msnbc. we are just one day away from the iowa caucuses. as we go to break tom arnold and other notable iowaens talking about what they know about the caucuses. >> who would have to be paid to go to an iowa caucus on a freezing cold winter night are not going to understand why people do this. >> it is a continuation of how this country got started. small groups of people meeting talking about liberty and freedom. >> we have a great and unique opportunity to meet all the candidates. >> i always get excite today see the surrogates stand up and talk about their candidate. >> the caucus is like
professional wrestling. >> often times you have divided loyalties. >> it's kind of hard to believe while you are doing it that this is how we do it. >> i'm excited to be a part of my first caucus. there are issues that are really important to me. >> i love when people come to iowa and see and it is time to leave like they have been there a long time. want to get their hands on. if they could ever catch you. the access informationlows us to from anywhere. the microsoft cloud allows us to scale up. microsoft cloud changes our world dramatically. it wasn't too long ago it would take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome. now, we can do a hundred per day. with the microsoft cloud we don't have to build server rooms. we have instant scale. the microsoft cloud is helping us to re-build and re-interpret our business.
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ever known. >> and chelsea clinton campaigning in iowa for hillary clinton. right now we are waiting to hear from hillary clinton. she is about to speak at abraham lincoln high school in council bluffs at a get out the caucus event. we will bring you her comments live as soon as they happen. it's sunday. as the candidates battle it out for the evangelical vote on the republican side means they need to be in a church pew today. ted cruz did that earlier this morning. more on the role on religion coming up but first here is senator ted cruz when asked if he prayed for victory. >> i pray that god's will be done. >> one of the things the pastor asked is pray for any who are your opponents. when you've got a house
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i'm for ted cruz because our country was founded on the bible and the constitution. >> they are going to start getting in line and doing what we need it get done. >> my second choice would be marco rubio. >> how do you feel about donald trump? >> i watch his show. i'm afraid of what he might do once he is in office. >> why are you caucusing for trump? >> he is going to make america great again. >> i think everybody is a little afraid. americans are afraid. the world is afraid. >> i hope he is tough on illegal immigration like he says. >> i think he can keep our country safe. >> he is not politically correct. >> would you be caucusing if he wasn't running? >> probably not. >> 49 years. >> iowa residents talking with msnbc's chuck todd ahead of the
caucuses there. republican front runners donald trump and ted cruz out hoping to secure support from evangelicals and religious conservatives making up more than half of all republican caucus goers. donald trump attended a church service while ted cruz attended services in west des moines. later today cruz will hold another event in davenport. meanwhile, on the democratic side president bill clinton made an unannounced stop in des moines. many surprised worshippers flocked toward him before the pastor asked them to return to their seats. joining me now is chief political correspondent. let me ask you this question that has puzzled a lot. you probably get this all the time. we think of iowa. mike huckabee wins it, rick santorum wins it. you look at the evangelical vote.
donald trump thrice married, cover of new york tabloids with very interesting lifestyle in new york doing very well with evangelicals. what is behind that in. >> evangelicals like many voters in this country are frustrated and evangelicals feel like they have been played by the republican establishment as political pawns in a game of chess and have come out on the losing end. donald trump comes around and takes it to the establishment and tells it like it is or at least the way donald trump sees it. and evangelicals like the brash talk. here is the reality. evangelicals see the world in black and white, right and wrong. they say biblical absolutes. donald trump has the same black and white rhetoric, if you will. he sees the world in absolute, too. donald trump is getting ridiculed for standing strong and being bold out there and
evangelicals are also bold and standing strong. they are getting ridiculed. i think there is a kinship between the two. it will have to be a dr. phil episode because i need excedrin. >> donald trump was on face the nation. he was asked about going to church and the concept of humility in a sermon. >> the sermon was in part on humility. what did you take away? >> they didn't know i was coming because of security reasons. so we just sort of showed up. maybe they changed quickly or maybe it was coincidence but it was on humility. it was a very nice service, beautiful church. i liked it. >> a lot of people don't think -- your name is on everything. >> there is more humility than you would think. believe me. >> it's interesting listening to donald trump when he talks about going to church and talking about the bible. he talked in iowa about not
seeking forgiveness and then look at marco rubio running an ad where he talks specifically about his faith. you look at ted cruz going so hard after evangelicals. do cruz and rubeio have it wrong about what it takes? >> i don't know about that. i think cruz is doing what he needs to do is marco rubio is doing what he needs to do. both are authentic evangelical christians. the point is that they are solid christian guys doing it the right way. the difference is that they have run up against the donald. he has the it factor. it is an intangible narrative that donald trump has had since the beginning of the race. the narrative is simple. he is the successful guy that knows the art of the deal. when he talks people listen. and it seems that people will buy what he is saying. and i think evangelicals are
buying into that. as you know in politics it is all about crafting the narrative. the narrative for donald trump was positive from the get whereas ted cruz and marco rubio and ben carson, their narratives are being crafted as we speak. it's a major advantage for donald trump. >> let me ask you this, too. you look at evangelicals and their role in this process, not so much in new hampshire, that's a fairly secular electorate but you get to south carolina, i think two-thirds of the republican electorate is evangelical. you go across the south, huge voile. do you subscribe to the theory if ted cruz does not pull this out in iowa tomorrow night, he cannot get traction in the evangelical-heavy states that come later on? >> i don't know about that. i think this is a one day at a time situation with these campaigns because you never know what donald trump is going to say, you never know what some of the other campaigns is are going to do. i think it will be the last stand in south carolina for sure, so there's no doubt about it that south carolina is going
to be crucial for ted cruz. he's well organized down there. but donald trump is, too. as a matter of fact, south carolina is donald trump's -- you could make the argument that even beyond new hampshire, south carolina is possibly one of the strongest states for donald trump, believe it or not. you know, this whole thing reminds me, there's an idea in iowa and it's true that evangelicals are going to split a lot of this vote. you know, carson and huckabee and santorum and rubio and cruz, and then, of course, donald trump has got the 19% of evangelicals out here, and it reminds me of south carolina, what happened to mike huckabee. if you remember, steve, it was huckabee against mccain in 2008. huckabee lost by three percentage points to mccain. why? because fred thompson was in the race, took that vital support away from huckabee and cost him the nomination in 2008. the same thing could happen to ted cruz. we have to see about a winnowing of the field and we'll go from there. >> i get the sense mike huckabee has thought about that once or
twice since then. dave brody, thanks for your time. the sanders campaign has been rallying volunteers in iowa pushing for a stronger turnout. turnout obviously very key to bernie sanders tomorrow and msnbc's jacob sob revolve has spent the weekend going door to door following a canvasser. >> what's happening right no you is these people are all signing up to go canvass for bernie sanders and that's going door to door to try to get every last vote before the iowa caucus on monday. we're going to go out with them. what do you do? >> i retired last year. now i'm -- i work -- i'm back working part time at the iowa department of public health. i do some -- this kind of volunteer stuff. >> reporter: why did you decide to support burp nernie. >> i have been a life long left leaner. not necessarily a democrat. >> meaning what? >> back in the '60s and '70s i was a socialist. >> reporter: got it.
where are we? >> beer in -- we're in beaver dale. >> do you live around here? >> about three blocks. we have a couple, a place here and a place -- >> you must be committed to be doing this. you don't have to be knocking on boars. show me how it's done. >> see if there's a doorbell here. >> reporter: here we go. >> how are you? >> are you matthew? >> i am. >> have you decide who had you're going to caucus for? >> your man. >> great to meet you. >> reporter: take care. >> thanks for stopping by. >> have a good one. >> bye. >> nicely done. so that was easy. is it usually that easy? >> well, you know. >> reporter: where to next? >> we're going to go right here. this looks like a door hanger. >> reporter: so if they're not here, you put that on the door? have you ever had a door slammed in your face?
>> oh, yeah. >> reporter: really. >> don't break my car. >> i won't. are you going to caucus this year? i can't. i have to work that night. but i have caucused before. >> who would you support if you were going to? >> the donald. and if it wasn't donald it would be the bernie. >> reporter: did you expect that? >> no, that's what i'm talking about. that's what you get when you knock on doors. she was good. i mean -- >> reporter: shea is w is who yt to reach. >> this may be weird but she's very representative of many people. >> trying to get the vote out there. they always say it's a cliche turnout will be key but that is so true for bernie sanders tomorrow. there was record chattering turnout the last time democrats had caucuses in iowa. 240,000 people turned out for obama versus clinton in 2008. no one thinks it will approach that this time around but the higher bernie sanders can get it tomorrow, the better chance he
will have of pulling that upset over hillary clinton. meanwhile, right now we are waiting to hear from hillary clinton. she's about to speak at abraham lincoln hoyo high school in cou bluffs. right now bernie sanders about to wrap up the first of his four events this day, a day before the caucuses. let's take a listen. >> young man, 20 years of age, he said i went to college for two years, two years, dropped out, $60,000 in debt. talked to another young man, 29 years of age, married, two kids, works in sustainable energy, $90,000 in debt. he's paying over 50% of his limited income in student debt. talked to a guy in nevada last month, 55 years of age, he's been paying off his student debt for 25 years. he is more in debt today than he was when he began.
>> what about our voluntary armed services and those kids who don't have an option other than -- >> okay. very good. hang onto that one for a minute, all right? and i talked to a woman in new hampshire. and this is what she said. she said, yeah, i'm not only paying my daughter's student debt, i am paying -- continue to pay my own student debt, paying herself and for her daughter. we want the best educated workforce in the world. we should not punish people for trying to get the education they need. that is pretty crazy, and that is why i believe we need to be able to tell people with student debt they can refinance their loans at the lowest interest rates they can find. now, right now we have people with student debt paying 6%, 8%, 10% interest rates. you can refinance your home at
3% or 4%. that does not make sense to me. if we allow people to refinance at the lowest interest rates they can find, we will be able to cut student debt in this country very, very significantly. and that's what we should do. >> all right. bernie sanders trying to rally the troops in waterloo, iowa. our special coverage of the countdown to the caucuses continues after this break. we're going to talk to members of the clinton, sanders, and cruz campaign teams. msnbc reporters standing by covering all of the campaigns as they stump across the hawkeye state just hours to go now until the caucuses. you are watching msnbc, the place for politics. and i'm still struggling with my diabetes. i do my best to manage. but it's hard to keep up with it.
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you are going to make a decision soon, monday. we're going to do a hell of a job. we are going to make america great again, i promise. >> i will stand for you. i will fight for you through this campaign, and in the white house i will work my heart out for you for the kind of future of our country that we all deserve and want. >> commit today to come out monday night and caucus for us, stand up and speak for us. if we stand together, we will win. >> and what we are saying is enough is enough. you've had your day, now it is our turn. >> it's not just about who you like the most. it's about who gives us the best chance to win. that matters. >> and good afternoon to you. i'm steve kornacki in new york. just about 29 hours now until
the iowa caucuses begin, and that frantic final push is on. the candidates criss-crossing the state as i speak. 13 of them holding a total of 38 different events today. some of them during the next hour. we'll be bringing you much of that live. this all comes as the final poll out of iowa, "the des moines register" poll shows hillary clinton leading bernie sanders by thee points. on the republican side donald trump opening up a five-point advantage over ted cruz. marco rubio back in third place there with 15%. ben carson in fourth. the rest of the field stuck in single digits. now, at this hour it is a mad dash across the state of iowa to sway undecided voters ahead of those caucuses tomorrow and our team of rompe erreporters are a the ride. among them kerry sanders with the trump campaign in council bluffs, hallie johnson with the cruz campaign in des moines. des moines is also where we find
kasie hunt. she is following bernie sanders' campaign and we're going to start with donald trump. he's going to be taking the stage later tonight for a rally in sioux city, but kerry sanders joins me from council bluffs. that's where donald trump just wrapped up an event, kerry, with jerry falwell, jr., the head of liberty university, the son of jerry falwell, a key endorsement he's picked up. how is the trump campaign feeling 24 hours away? >> reporter: donald trump says it is crunch time, steve, and that things are now moving in the direction they believe i think somewhat buoyed by the fact that polls suggested he is now five points up even though there is a 4% give or take on the margin of error there. bottom line is he sat here with jerry falwell in a rather different setting. he's done this a few times, but usually it's a little more boisterous. he sat here and they talked a little bit about the campaign and sort of resumed the themes
that he has hammered since he really started to catch fire here in iowa, and that is the theme of the economy needs correction, that china needs somebody who can be tough with them, a tough negotiator, and he plays on the idea he's done tough negotiations in business, and finally the one theme that seems to resonate well with those who show up here, and that is about immigration. now, he's talked a lot about building that wall down along the border with mexico, but he's expanded that immigration discussion to isis and how people are, he says, young men coming over the -- coming over into europe and they've gone into germany and there's been these problems, and if there is a case where he can locate people in this country who have immigrated here, who have been allowed to come in, refugees, he will round them up and kick them out and that gets a lot of applause here. at the end of the day here, the clock is ticking. they're heading into -- they're heading into the caucuses here, and, of course, it's really
between it looks like according to the polls anyway, it's really between donald trump and ted cruz, and ted cruz has been taken out in terms of the secretary of state here for issuing a comment about whether people would be violating if they don't vote, and, of course, ted cruz was the attention-getter here for donald trump when he had a moment here before the crowd to talk specifically about that. >> voter violation. did you hear about this? cruz issued a statement, put it in people's houses, voter violation. looks like a government voter violation, like, oh, and it says -- it's a social thing. you're not allowed to do it. and they're investigating him now. so he's putting in houses voter violation, and he's giving people you have an "f" because you haven't voted enough. down the line. i never even heard of anything like this. it is so dishonest. it is so dishonest. >> so we'll see how that plays
with voters. donald trump taking down ted cruz. ted cruz not responding saying simply that he likes donald trump and he's not going to get in for a tit for tat taking him down. >> kerry sanders in council bluffs with the trump campaign. let's go to trump's main competition in iowa, ted cruz. hallie jackson joins us from des moines. that is where cruz will end his day after appearances in iowa city and davenport. on this issue of this cruz campaign mailer, you have donald trump just there a moment ago, his comments on it. he had the secretary of state in iowa taking the cruz campaign to task for this yesterday. is there any blowback for the cruz campaign from this and what are they saying about it? >> reporter: the complain is sort of rolling their eyes about this one, steve. i spoke with an aide this morning as well as yesterday when the news of this started to develop, and their sense is that this is a common practice. that's what we heard from the campaign, that this is something that has been used in the past. this type of social pressure
mailer, the idea is to sort of tell people who haven't been out to caucus, hey, everybody else is doing it, you should, too. kind of a peer pressure sort of thing. what seemed to irritate people about the cruz mailer was the fact that names, for example, were on the mailer, names of neighbors. there was that big voting violation across the top to make it look like it was a violation. again, the fact that they were scolded by the iowa secretary of state is something that the cruz campaign is brushing off. one aide telling me it's unprecedented really for somebody like a secretary of state, somebody in the high levels of government here in iowa, to speak out against a specific candidate just, what, 36, 24 hours before the caucuses. that was eyebrow-raising for them. marco rubio's campaign has a mailer that is also sort of filed under this social pressure type of theme but their mailer, for example, does not have neighbors' names on it, doesn't have the words voting violation, et cetera. all of this, it's a little bit in the weeds, but it goes to show the campaigns are doing whatever they can to try to get people out, to push the turnout. as we keep talking about, that
is key. it's almost a cliche but it's a cliche for a reason. if people do turn out, it will change how donald trump performs, and if evangelicals turn out, steve, if they turn out in the same numbers we saw the last couple cycles, about 60%, this new polling from "the des moines register" shows it's ted cruz who stands to benefit from that. >> hallie johnson there in des moines. cruz will be there later today. let's go across town, staying in des moines, kasie hunt is following the efforts of the sanders' campaign. it's interesting when you look at this polling and you see real specific groups. you see young people, people in their 20s, college students. you see political independents, first-time caucusgoers, you really see the path to victory for bernie sanders if he can get them out tomorrow. >> reporter: that's right, steve, and actually we're out canvassing with some of the young people that have been excited by bernie sanders. these high school kids are actually in from minnesota which, of course, is one of
those states where sanders has held some of those huge rallies. their caucuses will come later in the year. right now we're knocking on doors for people who have indicated they might be likely to vote for senator sanders. these are people who have been contacted by the campaign in the past and who they think might be able to if they just touch them one more time, that they might actually show up. now, sanders is closing with the same message that has gotten him this far. if you will remember when he announced back in april, that ten-minute long announcement on the capitol steps no, one really expected that he would be within a couple of points of hillary clinton in iowa, but senator sanders, take a listen to what he had to say at a campaign rally earlier today. >> don't they know that it is the billionaire class and corporate america and wall street who are supposed to run this country? and what we are saying is enough
is enough. you've had your day. now it is our turn. >> reporter: so there you go, and sanders, of course, had been hitting hillary clinton a little bit harder in some of the final days of campaigning talking about how she was politically calculating and had shifted positions when it was politically convenient on issues like the defense of marriage act and trade, things that are really important to these liberal progressives, but, of course, at this point it really does all come down to what we're doing right here, whether or not that enthusiasm for outsider candidates will be enough to bring new voters to these caucuses which, of course, requires a significantly greater commitment than a regular primary, steve. >> and i'm curious what you're hearing from the campaign. i know their official lines look, they want to do well tomorrow, they don't feel they have to win tomorrow. they have a national organization, all of that. but realistically when you look at the establishment support hillary clinton has, the firewall in the south and all
that, do you feel sanders really has to get these first two, iowa and new hampshire, to blow that open later on? >> reporter: the stakes for senator sanders here in iowa are much higher than they are for hillary clinton. i think privately both sides will acknowledge that. but think about what might happen in the wake of a sanders' erstwhile win, something we didn't expect. sorry, we'll move on to the next house here. trying to not hold up the work these guys are doing. but, you know, for sanders, they feel like they can still come out of iowa even without a clear victory, even if they come in behind and still go into new hampshire in a strong place. the polls show he's the overwhelming favorite in new hampshire. of course, coming from neighboring vermont, and their challenge after that, of course, is going to be to figure out how to appeal to bigger, more diverse states, and, of course, we've talked a lot about whether or not sanders is going to be able to appeal to the african-american community. we've seen evidence of that, even here in iowa which does not necessarily fall into that
category. he's been campaigning for the last few days with dr. cornell west, who actually introduced vampire weekend at a big cap stone rally last night at the university of iowa. >> all right. kasie hunt in the middle of the street there in des moines, making me a little nervous. be careful there, but thank you for that report. >> i'm trying to protect our great cameraman, cowboy. >> hillary clinton is in the western part of iowa. she's campaigning in council bluffs, where donald trump was a few minutes ago. clinton began speaking a few minutes ago. let's take a listen. >> roll up the sleeves and get to work for us, and, in fact, it's clear just looking at our last two democratic presidents, both of whom i know, that they inherited economic problems from their republican predecessors. in my husband's case, it was a recession, the quadrupling of the national debt, and an out of
control deficit. things were just not heading in the right direction, so when he got to washington, somebody said so what do you uniquely bring that will turn this around? and he said, well, i guess arithmetic. we're going to get to work, we're going to make it add up for the american people and we did. after eight years, 23 million new jobs, but most importantly incomes went up for everybody, not just people at the top. hard working middle class families, even poor people. in fact, more poor people were lifted out of poverty than at any other time in recent history. and we ended up with a balanced budget and a surplus. well, you know what happened. back came the republicans, right? and back came trickle down economics. back came big tax cuts in favor of the wealthy. take your eyes off the corporations, off of wall street, off the mortgage market, and we know what happened because we lived through it. you know, shortly after the '08
election, president-elect obama called and asked me to come see him in chicago. i didn't know why. turned out he wanted me to be secretary of state but before we got to that, he said it is so much worse than they told us. we were losing 800,000 jobs a month in america. the auto industry was on the verge of collapse. 5 million homes were lost. $13 trillion in family wealth wiped out. and i don't think president obama gets the credit he deserves for making sure we didn't fall into an even deeper ditch than the one the republicans left for us. >> all right. you're listening there to hillary clinton rallying her supporters out in council bluffs, iowa. joining me now is joel, a senior strategist for the clinton campaign. thanks for taking a few minutes. let me ask you this, eight years ago we all remember this moment was the beginning of the end for the clinton campaign. she went into iowa with high hopes. they came out in third place, never fully recovered from then. from your standpoint looking at
her operation in iowa, where she stands on the eve of the caucuses, if there's one key difference that you would look at and say this is why it's going to be different this time, what is it? >> well, there are two key differences. one, every election has its own dynamic. 2007 and '08 following on the heels of a republican president is different than following on the heels of a democratic president who has pushed this country forward over the last eight years. but more important i think hillary clinton is speaking to people about their lives, making a difference in their lives at this moment. they know they've gotten out of the worst of the crisis period we've gotten, and they want someone who can deliver real results for them. that coupled with the fact we have built and we're seeing it out there on the streets right now across iowa an organization with grassroots support, a lot of enthusiasm. we're seeing that bubbling up. we're feeling that we can get the turnout we need and want to win tomorrow night, and we're going to work until everybody walks into their caucus location
and caucuses for hillary clinton for us. i think that organization, her message at this moment in time about making a real difference in people's lives, delivering real results is the key difference. >> let me ask you about the flip side though. if bernie sanders does pull this out tomorrow night, with he see the polls up there in new hampshire, he's already significantly ahead there. a win in iowa tomorrow night for bernie sanders would seem to put him in prime position to go 2-0 to win both of those lead-off contests. if history tells us anything, it's that hillary clinton would be in a very, very significant hole. what do you do if bernie sanders wins tomorrow? >> well, you know, steve, you started off by saying iowa was the beginning of the end in 2008. it was actually just the beginning of the beginning. you recall we went through 50 states, campaigned into june. these primaries can be very long, they can be very competitive. we've always expected these states to be competitive. look, the sanders campaign at the outset said they had to win both of these states. we think -- we're thinking in terms of the long game here and the long run. coming out of iowa and new
hampshire, which are obviously always very important states, it's where they get a lot of attention very early on, we move on to nevada and south carolina, and then in the month of march more than half the delegates on the democratic side are going to be up in those primary that is occur in march. so we're preparing for a competitive campaign. we think that, you know, senator sanders' campaign felt they had to win both of these. we feel we come strong out of iowa, we go into this to new hampshire pretty strong. yeah, we've got some ground to make up there, and then we look forward to nevada and south carolina into the month of march where this thing is really going to be very critical time juncture and piling up the delegates you need. >> is she still the front-runner if she loses iowa and new hampshire? >> look, i don't think it's about front-runners or not. i think it's about who has the clearest path to winning, who has the message that's going to carry the day with democratic
voters. what democratic voters want in these primaries and i think what the american people want at this juncture is a president who isn't just talking about ideas that sound good on paper but have no chance of happening in reality right now. i think what we have to do is have somebody who can make a real difference in people's lives whether we're talking about universal pre-k so our kids can get the education they need, creating the good jobs of the 21st century by investing in clean energy, equal pay for women, people want to feel a difference in their lives and their families. that's what this choice is going to come down to and she's the candidate and the president who can get that done for the american people. >> joel benenson with the clinton campaign. thank you for joining us, joel. appreciate it. >> thank you, steve. ted cruz taking aim again today at marco rubio adding fuel to their feud while speaking just moments ago in iowa city. the latest on their war of words straight ahead, and you won't
want to miss this, chris matthews' interview with donald trump. a 5:00 p.m. special edition of "hardball" on msnbc, the place for politics. as we go to break, here is marco rubio campaigning in cedar rapids. >> the first and most important thing i may do early on as president, because i will swear before my creator and the eyes of this nation to protect and defend and uphold the constitution of the united states and unlike barack obama, i will actually mean it. [ applause ] sir, could you step aside? "sir"? come on. you know who i am. progressive insurance? uh, i save people an average of over $500 when they switch? did you pack your own bags? oh! right -- the name your price tool. it shows people policy options to help fit their budget. [ scanner warbling ] crazy that a big shot like me would pack his own bags, right? [ chuckles ] so, do i have the right to remain handsome?
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on this morning's "meet the press" with chuck todd. cruz just wrapped up a campaign event at the county fairgrounds in iowa city. now he is directing much of his last-minute advertising against senator marco rubio, including this new ad from
the cruz campaign. >> i am not and i will never support, never have and never will support any effort to grant blanket legalization amnesty. >> marco rubio was part of the gang of eight trying to secure amnesty. >> one of the architects of the plan, senator marco rubio. you are giving legal status to people who are broken the law. >> it was marco rubio that was a member of the gang of eight and ted cruz that wasn't. >> now, while rubio still trails cruz in the final des moines regist register poll, it suggests rubio's supporters are more likely to support. rick, let me ask you the big picture question. 24 hours away, you guys are down
in this final des moines register poll. you're certainly in striking distance. this poll though has a very good track record on these things. to get you over the top tomorrow, what is the key for your campaign? >> it's turnout. we have 12,000 volunteers. we've got someone representing us at every single caucus. we've named over 1,500 precinct captains and co-captains, and, look, i respect "the des moines register" poll but it considers that about 385,000 people would caucus. the sample size they use, that they narrow to, is just too high. so we think that gap is actually a lot closer, and we're going to work to make that gap close because we're -- well, yesterday we made 27,000 phone calls from the volunteer operation at headquarters. i wouldn't have believed that, but that was the phones calls we did. we're doing 2,000 doors a day. we're working hard to get our people to the polls. we think we're going to do it. >> i'm curious who you say to people who look at your campaign
strategy. you have gone hard after winning over evangelical voters. they're a big part of the electorate in iowa, not so much new hampshire, but you get to the southern states a very big part here there. to people who say if ted cruz for basically a year of campaigning in iowa and going after the evangelical vote there, if he does not win in iowa, he will not be viable in south carolina and the south. what do you say to that? >> this is false. i'll tell you, look, we still have over a dozen people in this race and there's going to be a lot of people who get out of this race, particularly those who have been in our lane on the evangelicals like ben carson, rick santorum, mike huckabee. to some degree marco rubio is trying to claim this lane also. after new hampshire you will have a lot of people out. if it is a two-man race between donald trump and ted cruz, then the evangelical vote will continue to play a big role, and 11 of the states that go before march 15th have a 50% gop
evangelical vote or higher, and in places like oklahoma, it's 70% and in tennessee it's 70%. in alabama it's 70%. georgia it's 60%. so, look, we've done a lot of work in the south, and, by the way, iowa voters, they want to know not what your single state strategy is. they want to know how are you going to win the nomination? we've raised $50 million in this campaign. we reported today over 19 million cash on hand in the last report. this campaign is built to last. we've organized the south and the evangelical vote is going to be a part of it, but when this narrows down, that's when we're going to be strong. >> rick, we showed some of that ad. the attention your campaign has been showing to marco rubio in the last days in iowa, let me get you to play. some of this is about expectations. from the cruz campaign standpoint, what he the bar for marco rubio tomorrow? what does he have to do to be successful? what would be a successful showing for marco rubio in iowa? >> well, first of all, he'd have
to repudiate the gang of eight and promise to never do it again. he's never done that -- >> but what -- to go to new hampshire and say i got something good out of iowa, what do you say he has to do? does he have to get second place? >> i think he would have to probably place second, but i think he could make a case for third but i think he's far enough behind. we'll see, look, i don't know the answer to those questions. we'll have to see what the iowa voters come up with, but i do believe as i said this is a two-person race between donald trump and ted cruz, and we're going to try to keep it that way until we can be the only person in this race. >> finally, i want to ask you about those mailers that have made some news in the last 24 hours. we played donald trump a few minutes ago condemning your campaign for them. these are mailers that went out to that had the words voting violation on them, basically saying they were warning of low participation in the area. neighbors were named on these things. some people saying this is inappropriate. what's your response to that? >> well, first of all, people's voting records is a matter of public record. second of all, these mailers
have been used successfully in iowa. the iowa republican party used them last year to help elect their republican statewide ticket. every republican on the ticket benefited from the mailings. we modeled it after those mailings and marco rubio condemned us for them as well and we found out he sent almost exactly the same mailer to people. they are effective. i took an override the other day and the guy told me he wasn't going to caucus but if he would he'd caucus for ted cruz. by the time we were done with the ride, he promised me he would go to caucus. we do that by phone call, door knocking, neighbor to neighbor. we're always trying to persuade people to go out and to vote. it's part of their duty. >> all right. rick tyler out there in iowa with the cruz campaign. thank you for joining us. appreciate it. >> appreciate it, thanks. and donald trump, we saw him a while earlier speaking out in
council bluffs, iowa. he's going to be just due north of there in sioux city. we will bring you live report and -- excuse me, live images of donald trump speaking there. maybe the sound, too. when we come back. want to get their hands on. if they could ever catch you. i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line.
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when i'm president of the united states, if you are not doing a good job, you will be fired, and your va benefits if you're a veteran, you will be able to take them to any hospital or any doctor that you want to go to. [ applause ] i can go on a little longer, but i think -- i encourage you to go on our website and learn about all the policy ideas that we have. i know that matters to you. you deserve to know. somebody runs for president, they can't just tell you they're going to make things better. you deserve to know how. this is a serious campaign at a serious time in our nation's history and i'm proud of the work we've put into detailing exactly what we will do.
but i want to end how i began, by talking about the consequences of this election. because, you see, in november of this year, this nation will have a new president, a president-elect, and let me tell what you the outcome cannot be when you wake up on that first wednesday of november. the outcome cannot be president bernie sanders. >> and you were listening to marco rubio rallying the faithful in cedar rapids, iowa. they call it the city of five seasons. of course, it may be the most abused cliche in all of politics, it all comes down to turnout. but sometimes the clean shays are true and they're true for a reason. we want to show you why all the politicians, all the pun piditsy it when it comes to this caucus tomorrow in iowa. might surprise you what we have found. take a look at the democratic side. what are you seeing here? the number of people who participate in these things. you see 60,000 in 2000.
pretty low. you had 125,000 in 2014. that was the year of howard dean and john kerry. an then you see this gigantic number, 240,000 in 2008. that was obama, that was clinton. a lot of young caucusgoers. that was the heart and soul of the obama campaign. he brought all these new people out. that's how he won the state. keep that in mind as we look at the current state of democratic play in iowa. this is from monmouth, one of those pollsters, a very good pollster, been checking in on iowa periodically. they tested three different turnout models. now, remember, 240,000, that is the high water mark. that is what they got in 2008. nobody thinking they will be anywhere close to that this time around but we're not sure how far off it they will be. what monmouth said is if there's 110,000, that's about what they're estimating, a little less than half of what 240. with 110,000, hillary clinton is leading bernie sanders by five points. if you jump it up to 150,000, a
little higher turnout, more of those casual first-time voters showing up, bernie sanders gets closer. now it's only three points. move it up to 200,000. you're getting to what would be very big turnout. if you do that, bernie sanders basically pulls to a tie with hillary clinton, down just one point. so when you say it all comes down to turnout, that's a big difference on the democratic side but it's even more stark on the republican side. again, for historical comparison, you had 121,000 in 2012. that was the all-time record on the republican side in iowa. 121,000. the difference is everyone believes that number is going to be higher this time around on the republican side. the question is how high will it go? and that is a huge question because take a look at this. three different turnout models for iowa tomorrow. remember, 121,000, that is the high water mark. it's probably going to be higher. if it's just a little bit higher, if it's 130,000, monmouth shows donald trump and ted cruz are tied.
that's if it's more hard core republicans, people who show up often. bump it up to 170,000. now you're getting those people who never participated who got excited about this campaign. they are disproportionately donald trump voters. he pulls into a seven-point lead. now, 20,000,000. that's through the roof. if that does happen, donald trump pulls ahead by double digits. it's the difference between a tied race at 130,000 and a trump blowout at 200,000. so when they say it all comes down to the turnout usually they're spouting cliches but when they say it about iowa tomorrow, that is the real story. bernie sanders supporters and volunteers are hitting the ground hard in iowa as we speak, and next sanders' top campaign adviser joins me to talk about their ground game as we head into those caucuses tomorrow. this is msnbc, the place for
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we now have 90% coverage. i don't want it repealed and i don't want agree with senator sanders that we start all over again. >> i am disappointed by the tone of her campaign. it is not true to suggest that she will be the stronger candidate in november. >> hillary clinton and bernie sanders making their final cases in iowa today, less than 24 hours from the start of those caucuses. joining me now from des moines on the ground where this democratic battle is really heating up, we have msnbc national correspondent joy reid. so, joy, clinton versus sanders. i guess the big picture is when bernie sanders -- i remember being out there in vermont when he got in that race at the end of may. if you would told me or anybody there that day that here we'd be on the eve of iowa with bernie sanders within three points of
hillary clinton, i don't think anyone would have believed it. that said, he remains a prohibitive long shot for the nomination. how do you assess this thing. >> and least of all hillary clinton and her team. they definitely didn't see the sanders movement coming. they were late in responding to it, and then you've seen the two campaigns really ratcheting up what you could call the negative campaigning. i was watching some of the ads that were playing last night at the closing arguments that are all over iowa tv. both of them making subtle digs. hillary clinton's case being she is the only one running in terms of she versus sanders that is running to defend barack obama's legacy and sanders hitting her on things like trustworthiness to really go after wall street. so i think that the fundamentals if you talk to the campaigns, i think that both agree that structurally hillary clinton is probably ahead. the des moines register poll which is a gold standard poll, she is structurally ahead. she is essentially running to be
barack obama's third term. she's essentially hugging the president and saying she would continue his legacy. >> sanders has some complications. you see that in his latest act which is walking a finer line. his supporters are less closely aligned to the caucuses. hers are more reliable. so we'll see. there are a lot of factors but i think structurally it's probably accurate she's slightly ahead. >> let's bring in tad devine, also out there in des moines. a senior campaign adviser to bernie sanders. let me ask you about that. you are in iowa, trying to win iowa. this is the state where it all started for barack obama in 2008. obviously the president very, very popular with democrats in iowa. this idea that the end of the
obama administration, the answer to eight years of barack obama should be a political revolution, that's the bernie sanders pitch here. do you think that turns off some obama supporters? >> no, i don't. and, listen, what bernie is saying is after 40 years of the middle class being crushed in america, after earnings going down for decades, after people running in place and working harder and harder to get ahead, it's time we change a rigged economy, end a corrupt system of campaign finance. bernie understands that president obama, vice president biden when they came into office, we were losing 80,000 jobs a month. what they did to turn this country around is fantastic and practically a miracle. now is the time for us to think big and act bold and that's what he wants to do as president. >> we have that des moines register poll we were just talking about. bernie sanders three points behind hillary clinton. obviously you guys could pull this thing out tomorrow very much possible. but when you think about a strategy to actually win the democratic nomination and you look at -- look, hillary clinton is already before a vote is
cast, she is hundreds of delegates ahead because of all the superdelegates, the elected officials behind her campaign. she has that nearly 40-point lead in south carolina. you look at other southern states that will follow a couple weeks later. big advantages there. the idea that you guys really need to shake this race up by winning both iowa and new hampshire, that's really the kind of seismic event it would take to shake up all those other raements i ju realities i just put out there, what do you say to that? >> i think we're going to do very well in iowa. i think it's going to be a very close race. i think we'll do very well in new hampshire. i saw a poll from "the boston herald" saying bernie is 20 points ahead in new hampshire. we will win this knowlednominat going state to state and building momentum. i worked for walter mondale and michael dukakis. i saw what happened when they won new hampshire. i think there's a path to the nomination for us. if bernie sanders can prove that he's the strongest candidate in the democratic party, that he
can coalesce a group like president obama did in 2008, bring in young people, bring over independents, new people in the process, i think the elected officials will step back and say we need bernie to be the nominee because we need a democratic electora electorate. >> joy, let me bring you back in. let me ask you, in your view what would it take for bernie sanders -- take a look for instance at south carolina where he is down in the poll about 37 points the other day. what would it take to make bernie sanders competitive in south carolina? >> well, i mean, that is the big challenge and it goes back to what we were talking about a little bit earlier, steve. african-american voters give the president the highest approval ratings of any other demographic. they are mostly very loyal to the president, and i think the core message of needing to have a political revolution in the wake of the first black president and also some of the supporters, quite frankly, um people like cornell west who have been very negative now
associated with the sanders campaign. they have a more difficult circular path. they want to hold onto the core supporters, the tom hartman crowds, some of whom are democrats, some independents who are sharply critical of the president, feel he didn't do enough on wall street, to fight for a public option or universal health care that was more like medicare. it makes it very difficult to bring together those liberals mostly white liberals and african-americans. and the way i like to put it is bernie sanders is doing great with the black people who listen to kendrick lamar. he needs the church moms, those people listening to their pastors and they're harder to access when your core message is basically kind of opposed to the president, and he has to walk a really fine line. he also is up against the institutional relationship that the clintons have with african-americans, that despite a lot of problems, including the clinton era and mass incarceration and a lot of other policies that are now very
unpopular with african-americans and despite the vi tuper tiffness of 2008, clinton has cemented a lot of relationship that is sanders doesn't have and has a longer track record of talking about issues of race. it's a very difficult needle to thread for sanders. i'm not saying it isn't possible, but it is a hurdle. >> tad, picking up on something joy said, campaigning with cornell west who has been very outspoken in his criticisms of the president. he's taken a lot of heat from black leaders for the way he's gone after the president. was there any concern or any second thoughts in your campaign about do we want to be publicly aligning with him so much? >> no, listen, dr. west has been on college campuses and all across the country. he's exciting young people. bernie, you know, doesn't necessarily agree with the views of every person who supports him and i'm sure there are a lot of people who other candidates,
their supporters have views they don't agree with, but he's been exciting young people, call are -- calling for a campaign that helps working people and african-american. and whether bernie sanders is connect with african-american, his whole fight has been about inequality. he was arrested when he was a college student protesting housing at the university of chicago. he went to see martin luther king deliver his speech and his values were forged at that time and he's kept up that fight his whole life. his program of job creation, of health care for all, of universal access for college. i can't think of a community that would benefit more from it than the african-american community in america. >> tad devine and joy reid, both out there in iowa. thank you for joining us. >> thanks, steve. >> after monday's caucuses in
iowa it will all be about new hampshire. an eight-day sprint will take off there. the candidates will face off next in the february 9th, new hampshire primary. next, we will take a look at where the candidates currently stand in the granite state. but first, take a look at a split screen. you have hillary and bill clinton speaking in separate parts of iowa. we'll take a trip now to iowa city and listen in on bill clinton. >> they just want to blame and label, and it's so emotionally satisfying for about 15 seconds. blame and label. and depending on the candidate and the day and the state of play, they blamed immigrants. in particular they blamed mexicans. do you know how many undocumented immigrants have been to m.a.s.america in the la years? zero. they graduated 100,000 engineers in mexico. we have 120.
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i think we're in good shape and i'm looking forward to going to new hampshire and south carolina with a message that a person with a proven record that has detailed plans that can lead this country is what we need to defeat hillary clinton. >> that was last night in davenport, iowa, with jeb bush. now, bush will be in iowa tomorrow afternoon. then he will be leaving the state. that is before all of the votes are cast tomorrow. he will be setting his sights on new hampshire. that is where bush is
essentially staking his campaign hoping it's friendlier waters. in the last month, bush, marco rubio, john kasich have finished second in a new hampshire poll proving it could be anyone's game if trump falters before next tuesday. what can we expect? let's bring in james, political reporter at the baoston globe. i look at the new hampshire polls. we have that pileup, that establishment pileup but trump continues to lead. if the headline out of iowa tomorrow is donald trump wins, very impressive, this thing is real, is it realistic to think anybody could rise up in the next week and stop him in new hampshire? >> no. it's not at all. in fact, donald trump would then be the first person in american history as a republican to win both iowa and new hampshire. as you know, that has never happened since the iowa caucuses were created. the first one happened in 1972. he would have a tremendous amount of momentum.
i think the question is what happens in second place. that's always been the question in new hampshire since july. since july donald trump has led every single poll. you mentioned that pileup and all the people in second place. i think we have had six or seven people in second place since late august. so it's really fascinating to watch. this is where i think that the game right now with iowa, where we're watching in new hampshire is what happens with donald trump. does he win? does he win convincingly? and then what happens with marco rubio? if marco rubio is some sort of a story coming out of iowa because he either got close to second place or got second place, my goodness, then we begin to actually have a bigger conversation about this establishment lane. the most recent poll on the republican race in new hampshire showed donald trump with 27%. but then if you add up the support for jeb bush and marco rubio and john kasich and chris christie, you get 39%. so you see the stakes here. if marco rubio is the story, if he's a clear indication as to where the establishment lane
voters are supposed to go, that could mean a very big deal in terms of what marco rubio or someone else, maybe it's jeb bush is a surprise story in iowa, where they should be going sfp. >> hillary clinton is already behind in new hampshire. if she loses iowa, could we expect her campaign to try to de-emphasize new hampshire over the next week? >> i think we could. but she's going to be spending most of her time here. the clinton campaign really needs in new hampshire, they do have a pretty -- a very experienced field team so what they need to do is get within field goal range for them to be able to punt or to be able to kick something through there at the end of the day, but if bernie wins iowa, there's going to be way too much momentum for her to compete here. >> it will all be about new hampshire about 48 hours from now. james, thank you very much. and that does it for me this afternoon. a special edition of "hardball" with chris matthews is next. he has a one-on-one interview with donald trump. tune in later tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern when chris will be joined by rachel maddow and
brian williams as they kick off prime time coverage of the iowa caucus. monday begins with me hosting "way too early" followed by "morning joe" from des moines. have a great night and "hardball" is next. this bale of hay cannot be controlled. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it. her long day as anne.. hair stylist starts with shoulder pain when... hey joanne, want to trade the all day relief of 2 aleve with 6 tylenol? give up my 2 aleve for 6 tylenol? no thanks.
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on the phone here and hillary clinton's campaign manager coming up here on set. we've got one hell of a show for you tonight. anyway, the cover of today's "des moines register" says it all. those two candidates, trump and clinton, are the front-runners in iowa. donald trump will be here soon. he's rising in "the des moines register" poll of likely republican caucusgoers. he leads ted cruz by five points. trump has gained six points since january 10th. cruz has lost two. robert costa is with me now. he's with "the washington post." i don't know what that sound is we're hearing anyway. >> maybe it's trump calling in. >> well, we'll get -- we have trump on the line. donald trump, mr. trump, thank you for joining us. we've got a good number for you in the poll. your numbers look good in the poll but they're about five points ahead. are you going to win? >> well, i hope i'm going to win. you know, it's an election, two knows but i tell you we have a tremendous am of relationship with the people of iowa.
we have -- i have been all over the state, been here numerous times, many times, and we've had tremendous rallies. i just got back from two very big rallies. we had an endorsement from jerry falwell, jr., who was amazing. he has seen every candidate, he knows every candidate, and he endorsed donald trump, and we have so many other endorsements, sarah palin, even sheriff joe. i don't know if you'll like that one, but i like it -- >> i know who he is. >> we're very firm on illegal immigration, but we've had tremendous endorsements, chris, and, you know, the relationship with the people of iowa has been fantastic. >> do you think it's morally wrong, morally wrong for someone to be elected president who comes from some other country? >> well, what are you getting at? >> i'm talking about -- >> are you talking about ted cruz? >> yeah. >> are you talking about ted cruz? >> yes. >> because he were born in canada? well, he was born in canada.
i just think that if you look at your constitutional scholars, chris, numerous of them have now come out and said he's not allowed to be president. i guess he can run but he can't be president, and it's a real question mark. it's a real problem that he's got. i mean, he's got a lot of problems. he didn't file a financial disclosure on goldman sachs and citibank loans which is a big problem for him, but then you have the problem where he was born in canada. avenues canahe was a canadian citizen until 15 months ago jointly with the united states. here is a guy, a united states senator and he's a canadian citizen and he only disputed that 15 months ago and terminated it, and he said amazingly, chris, to me he said he didn't know he was a canadian citizen. the fact is he was born in canada. he lived there for an extended period of time, and now he's running, and according to constitutional scholars and great constitutional lawyers he's not allowed to serve as president. >> do you think it's a moral
issue, that americans should be born here if they're going to be president of the united states or is it -- >> no, i think it's a constitutional issue. i think it's pretty clear the way it reads to me. i mean, i would say it's a constitutional issue, but it's not even me, and, you know, chris, it's not even a question of is it absolute. the democrats will bring a lawsuit. if he were the nominee, they have already said it, they'll bring a lawsuit and it's going to take two years or three years or five years, you know more about lawsuits than anybody, it's going to take many years to determine whether or not he, in fact, is able and allowed to serve under the constitution as president. and how do you run for office and how do people elect a person that they don't even know if he's going to be able to serve? now, laurence tribe came up with a strong feeling it's not settled law. this is not settled, but you have other people now coming out with much stronger opinions saying that not only is it not settled, but he's not allowed to serve as president. he lived in canada for years, and he was born on canadian
soil. they say you have to be born on united states soil. now, different for john mccain because his parents were both citizens and he was born on a military base. i would rate that totally different. that would be unfair. >> right. >> but in this case he was born in canada. i think it's a big problem. >> let's talk about a very immediate problem here and that's the last-minute mailer by the cruz campaign out here in iowa to scare voters into showing up. it's made to look like an official government document declaring a voting violation for not caucusing in prior elections. iowa's secretary of state has slammed the mailer saying accusing citizens of iowa of voting violation based on iowa caucus participation or lack thereof is false representation of an official act. to repeat -- >> it was incredible. i have never heard of it before. i guess it's something that has been done. it's not allowed to be done. a couple of people that are serious professionals like i'm sure yourself, you may have seen that. chris, i think you have seen it all. have you ever seen anything like this?
>> no, i have never heard of this baby. i have heard of some of this stuff on social security organizations that say official document, but i have never heard this particular thing. >> i think it's one of the most disgraceful things i have seen in politics. when you say violation and then they're giving you "x" for your voting records and they're saying immediately come and vote. i think it's one of the most horrible things that i have seen in politics, and i have seen pretty bad stuff just like you have, and this just came and now, as you know, he's under investigation by the attorney general or whomever in iowa. i think what he did to do that and he knew about it, you know, it's interesting. in canada he said he didn't know he was a canadian citizen. then he said he didn't know they didn't file his loan from that goldman sachs and citibank weren't mentioned because he wants to be robin hood. this guy is a lying guy. he's hated by everybody. here is a guy that can't even get the endorsement of a very,
very good governor of texas. if you can't get the endorsement from your sitting governor of texas, can't get the endorsement from one of his colleagues in the senate. not one senator is endorsing him, and he works with them on a daily basis when he shows up to work. i mean, this ted cruz is terrible. and then he says things about me in ads that are so untrue, it's unbelievable. it's unbelievable. he takes an ad and says things that are absolutely unbelievably untrue. and other than i have a little bit of a megaphone more so than other people, they wouldn't know what the truth is, but when he did this violation called voting violation, i guess that's what you're talking about, i don't think i have ever seen anything like that in politics so bad. >> let's talk about a high level, about you being president of the united states. the leader of our country and take the seat that lincoln held and others have held. when you think about mt. rushmore and i'm dead serious about this, i have been there, i have been overwhelmed by the place. i sat there for two hours just staring at these four presidents.
>> i agree. >> when you look at those four presidents, tell me what they say to you. what do they say to you about the inspiring notion of the presidency of the united states. let's start with washington. what does he say to you? >> yeah. it's greatness. i mean, if you think about it, it's really about greatness and it's about, you know, these were outstanding people. by the way, it's also an outstanding piece of art. it's an incredible thing that was done, but it's about greatness for our country. our country is going to be great again. we have a lot of problems, chris. i know in a certain way you have a certain respect for me and i do watch your show, by the way, but this is about making america truly great again. we have $19 trillion in debt. we're going up to $21 trillion. the new budget is a disaster, by the way. they never cut. there's so much fraud, waste, and abuse, chris, which you would be all in favor of. you don't want to see fraud, waste, and abuse. i know that, i know you.
and frankly there's so much fraud, waste, abuse when you look at what's going on. our military is not what it should be. our military -- in fact, it was on your show, i believe, general odierno made the statement that we are least prepared in terms of preparedness, one of the worst periods ever in the history of our country. we have a lot of problems with our country right now, chris. >> let's talk about hillary clinton and this latest development with regard to her e-mails. you know, there was a petraeus problem, he got in big trouble-i respected the guy otherwise but hillary clinton using her personal e-mail and sending top secret stuff. now, her defense is it has been consistent that they were not marked top secret when she was either receiving or sending them. and now they may have been declared that subsequent to that. how can you find criminality in that? is there criminality in something that's changed its status after she's finished with it? >> well, according to the lawyers, the answer is yes. now, i'm not a lawyer so i
really don't know. i do say this, i do say this. why would she do it? what is she doing? the judgment was so bad, chris. you wouldn't have done it. you would have said let me use the government server and let's assume that trump is listening on the line. big deal. why the hell did she do it whether it's whitewater or whether it's this. most people said she should have been indicted for whitewater, but it's always something. i mean -- >> what did she do wrong with whitewater. i don't remember -- >> one thing you will say, too, most of the lawyers -- >> what did she do wrong in whitewater. i thought they were cleared on whitewater. >> no, a friend of mine who was very much involved in that thing said that she escaped by the thinnest of margins. it was something that she had a real problem with and a lot of people felt she should have been indicted for whitewater. now, the e-mails i think are very, very serious and you mentioned general petraeus. they destroyed his life over it. i was happy to hear they're not going to take away his rank.
in my speeches over the last three or four weeks i said leave him alone, he suffered enough, but with hillary they say actually that you don't have to have that on it. it's automatic that you don't have to have that. but the real question i ask in terms of judgment, why would she have done this? put the server in a basement or in a closet? why does she do these things? it's so ridiculous. even if you assume people are listening or whatever or you want privacy from the government or whatever her reason, it's such bad judgment. you know, whether it's criminal or not, the lawyers do say it's criminal though, chris. i will say that. >> let's talk about "the new york times" judgment today. they have endorsed hillary clinton. obviously passed over the e-mail issue. they have endorsed one of your rivals, john kasich. did that surprise you? >> no, not really. look, you know, "the new york times" is "the new york times" and it really doesn't -- i don't think it will have any impact at all on the race. when "the new york times" endorses a republican, i don't
think it's going to have any impact whatsoever on the race. he's not doing very well. he's at -- i have actually gotten to like him but his numbers are certainly bad. i looked at the new poll that just came out as you know in iowa, the whole thing just came out. i guess i read it on bloomberg or some place where i'm leading, "the des moines register" and bloomberg poll and it seems to be a very respected poll but i'm leading by five or six points in that one and doing very well with evangelicals, doing very well with people -- let's see what happens because as you know, chris, the only poll that matters is the one tomorrow. so i don't even talk about it. but the poll did just come out and i know kasich is not at the top of that poll and he's very close to the bottom of the poll. >> i want to ask you a big question about you said earlier today i think it was george stephanopoulos, you were surprised how far you've come since june and a lot of people are surprised. i'm not entirely surprised, but i think there's something going on in the republican party. i think the establishment of the
republican party has really been blown away. the fact that bush is getting 2% in the poll. the fact his father won out here in 1980. that his brother won out here in 2000. the bush establishment, if you will, is just blown away. what is it that changed in the cosmos of the republican party to brush away, sweep away the people, the bob doles, the people -- although dole likes you -- the people that have been electing for years out here. what happened? what did they do wrong? >> number one, i'm very proud of the fact that bob dole respects me and likes me, and i thought that was -- and he totally dislikes cruz and so do a lot of other people. so does the governor of iowa dislike cruz. who doesn't dislike him? you know, it's interesting. i think it's an amazing question and it's going to be studied for a long time. number one, i think i have actually been a very good candidate. i get tremendous response in my speeches. i have by far the biggest audiences. by the way, bigger than bernie. bernie is second and he is
bigger than any of the other republicans but i have 35,000 in mobile, alabama. we have 21,000 in dallas, and we have massive audiences all over. i mean, i just left another one. i'm in iowa now. i just left another one. i do think i have been a very good candidate. i think that's why you're not that surprised, because you and i have known each other for a long time from the university of pennsylvania where we did it on the stage of the church. it was beautiful. i don't think you're that surprised and i don't think people that know me are that surprised, but people that don't know me are surprised because i'm not a politician. i haven't done this before. i have never done it before. but, you know, my life has been about winning and it has been about closing the deal, closing it, getting it done, and, you know, i do think there is an anger in the republican party and that anger is also in the democrat party. there's an anger in both parties. there's an anger in the country about the incompetence. i mean, whether it's giving the iranians $150 billion and the deal that was made, whether it's
sergeant bergdahl. we get bergdahl who is a traitor and we hand over five guys they have been after for a period of many, many years. they have wanted hem for nine years. we give them five guys. they will be back on the battlefield trying to kill everybody including us. look at the trade deals with china, we have a trade deficit of $500 billion a year, and i think there's a great anger in the country. they're not angry people but they're angry at what's happening to our country, chris. and a lot of people have said, i think you're one of them, i know you're one of them, but a lot of people have said i tapped into that. i haven't tapped into it as a politician tapping into something. but i am angry about how incompetently we're run and some of the things that we do as a country. i mean, we just have to stop. >> one last question and this is about you. i say to people, be careful about how you judge trump. don't judge him by how glib he is or good he is on the staump.
think about the buildings he put up and what he's had to deal with in places like new york and jersey. labor unions, local pols, some tough guys. and each time you have dealt with those elements. is that a guide to what kind of president you would be, a guy who is tough with those elements and not always clean elements you have to deal with. your thoughts? >> i appreciate the question, chris, and i have heard you say it, and actually because of you i sort of in the process of making an ad where it's just like a second piece for different jobs i have done over the country and actually even over the world because i built a great company and i have tremendous success and tremendous numbers of successful jobs. i'm going to try to make an ad. if we can make it exciting enough we're going to make an ad on it. i will say this, chris, i have dealt with some very tough customers in terms of politicians. you know politics in new york is as tough as it gets. when you can get zoning for almost 6,000 units on the hudson river on the west side of manhattan where you have many,
many community board members and every politician in the city is totally against it and they have marches and rallies and everything else and i got it approved and i got it built, and it's now a thriving city within the city and so many other jobs, trump towers, they said the most you will ever be able to go is 20 stories and i built a 68-story building. i have dealt with politicians all my life. unds that. a lot of people don't. including in other countries because i have things going in many, many other countries, very big successes, and i deal with people and i deal with politicians and i deal with leaders of countries, and having that -- i believe i have more experience than anybody else to be president and i think we'll do a great job and i think you will be very happy with the job i do and believe it or not, chris, i have a very big heart because we have to take care of our people, too. we have to take care -- it's not just about being a tough guy. we have to take care of our people from the standpoint of medical care and everything else, and i will do that. and i'll do a good job. >> okay. donald trump, thanks for joining
us tonight. the night before the caucuses. good luck tomorrow. i'm joined here in iowa by "washington post" national zwroosh thank you very much. >> thank you. >> robert costa. you covered this guy. give me a sense of that. i was going to ask him did he ever have to pay one of these politicians but why get into that now. i think he's a mixed bag. he said a lot of things i don't like at all. in fact, i really don't like, but i think there's something that's grabbed people about that guy. i think it's building. i think it's make america great again is maybe the best motto i have heard from a politician in years. >> listening to trump there, this is a deal, and he's trying to close the deal and so much of a deal is timing. we had cruz on the bug bus tour in early january. it seemed cruz was taking iowa away but then canada came up as an issue. cruz stumbled in the polls. trump now, a day before the caucus caucuses, he's closing the deal. the biggest thing i'm watching in iowa on the trail, new voters. they're going to trump on the republican side. >> what about the evangelicals out here, the people that are
really basing their politics on their religious beliefs? how does he get them? >> it's always been trump's big weakness. he's bringing in sarah palin. she'll come in again on monday. campaigning with jerry falwell. robert jeffers have been introducing him on the trail. he's been going to church. went to church on sunday. >> is this his first time? i think he went to church before. >> the funny thing about trump, watching trump in church, he's there, following the hymns along, even took a few selfies, but he's there. he's trying to say religious voters, i may not know every line in the bible but i can connect with you. >> politicians are nimble anyway. tune in tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern when i will be joining rachel maddow and brian williams for prime time coverage. big night for msnbc tonight. coming up, a look at the democratic front-runner in this race, hillary clinton. her campaign manager is coming to sit next to me along with someone who knows a lot about this state. former two-term iowa governor tom vilsack.
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welcome back to "hardball." live from java joe's in des moines, iowa. the iowa caucuses less than 24 hours away right now and hillary clinton's leading her closest rifest, vermont senator bernie sanders by just three points according to the latest "des moines register" poll. joining me is hillary clinton's campaign manager, robbie muk and iowa's former two-term democratic governor, tom vilsack, a long time hillary clinton supporter. so we have that straight here. look, you just heard trump. let's talk about the democrats. a couple things jumped at me in going over the numbers.
42% of iowa caucusgoers in 2008, when obama won, were single. this is an amazingly single state. people out here are pretty married i think, but single. why is that -- how is that the case? are they 17-year-olds because you can vote at 17. what's going on? that's a lot of single. >> secretary vilsack knows the state much better than me but we're expecting a big turnout tomorrow, and -- >> will single people be voting democrat? >> single women are really important target for our campaign and for democrats generally and so we expect them to be coming out in big numbers and supporting hillary. but we expect a general high turnout across the board. if you look back, the historic precedent for the iowa caucuses is most relevant this time is 2000. you had a two-term democratic president. you would basically a two-candidate race here. that was about 60,000 people. we think turnout is going to be
significantly higher than that. it was 120,000 -- >> do you think that's good for you guys for secretary clinton? >> i do. >> bigger turnout? >> i do. and secretary vilsack can speak to this, i sense a lot of enthusiasm. >> the first time, would you say the first time caucus attenders would be pro-hillary or pro-sanders? >> you know, it's interesting, chris. i think the people that are absolutely committed to going to the caucus are more pro-hillary than pro-sanders. >> i believe that. >> they're also more passionate. >> what about the newbies robby is talking about? >> they're split. when you talk to single moms, you talk to grand moms, they haven't caucused before but they're very interested because they have been passionately persevering in terms of their passion. they're not openly passionate. they're inwardly passionate. >> they don't go to rallies and yell. >> but they show up. they are absolutely committed to this woman because they know she has been fighting their fight for decades. >> you know, i'm amazed by
senator sanders' success. to me he's -- i like him, he's a flashback to 1968. you know what i'm talking about. he could be an assistant professor at berkeley or madison or ann arbor or out here at iowa state, and he's just a guy with a bull horn yelling out at the administration building. he's not a revolutionary. he says that word but are you surprised at his appeal to young voters? >> well, i think what voters are looking for more than anything in their selection is someone who can go to washington and really get something done, and i think senator sanders is talking about a lot of the same issues hillary is. getting everybody covered with health care, making sure people can afford college but the really important difference in this race is that hillary has proposals that can really get done -- >> he said he's going to give us, which sounds great if you're 20 years old, free tuition at state universities, free, free. a lot bigger social security benefits checks when you retire,
lots bigger. and what the other -- health care is a right from birth. that's a pretty good offer. >> look, it sounds really good on paper, but the question is and "the new york times" has talked about this, the concord monitor, t"the des moines registe register". they sound good on paper but they can't get done in washington. people are looking for a candidate that can break through the gridlock and really deliver results and people know hillary can do that. >> did you know 43% of your democratic caucus attenders out here are socialists? i mean -- >> look -- >> they accept the word. there's no reason to be hesitant about it or squeamish about it. they fully accept the word socialist. does that surprise you? >> what they are interested in is a fair and equitable -- >> but why do they accept the word socialist when ten years ago they wouldn't have? >> we're moving progressively towards a better understanding of what's happening in this country and the need for us to sort of focus on the middle class. focus on income inequality which is what hillary has been talking about. this is about getting things done. at the end of the day, this is about getting things done. >> are you a socialist?
i'm asking. >> i'm a democrat. >> are you a social snis. >> i'm a democrat. >> i'm a democrat. >> and a proud one. >> what's the difference between a democrat and a socialist? >> i think -- >> no, what's the difference between a democrat and a socialist. >> i will let bernie sanders describe -- >> why are you guys so squeamish about this. skroot difference for me is getting things done. there's one thing about -- >> you'd like an effective socialist. >> i would like to have a democrat who says free tuition for those who absolutely need it but not for donald trump's kids. i get that. that makes sense because we want to bring the cost of college down. i get the fact that we want to expand access to health care. we need to do it in -- >> i'm not leading the band on this. claire mccaskill who is a moderate democrat from missouri, a senator, said if you run as socialist for president, the republicans will have a hammer and sickle in their ads. is that true? is that a good prediction? >> i think what we want this election to be about is how we can really help families. i don't think we want an
argument of capitalism over socialism. >> you will not have it here. robby, will you win tomorrow night. >> we feel really good. >> how about objective statement? >> we will win the iowa caucuses. >> governor? >> i'm with my chair. >> i like your loyalty. you are a loyal man. governor sill vvilsack. what was better job here? governor here or secretary offingof agricultur agricultural. >> secretary of agricultural was a great job. do you know where i can get some burpee seeds? the only joke i have. it's not real. up next, a look at wisconsin from both sides of the aisle. i will speak with the democratic and republican party chairman in iowa about what we can expect tomorrow night. we'll see how they spin this baby. this is "hardball" live from des moines on the eve of the iowa caucuses. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives,
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sanders, just gut feeling in terms of who will be the best, who will do the best job moving forward. >> we're tired of being pushed around. we want to regain our standing in the world, and, you know, let's be realistic about where we're headed in the future. >> i believe a woman president is good for the future, but hillary is not the right one because she's changed her mind so many times. >> one thing i'm doing in 2016 is caucus. >> welcome back to this special edition of "hardball" live from des moines on the eve of the iowa caucuses. it really is that time. tomorrow night we'll get our first glimpse of how real voters really act and vote about this field of candidates. from the unconventional campaign of donald trump to the sprisingly competitive race between bernie sanders and hillary clinton, the road to the caucuses have been filled with epic battles and let's face, it one surprise after another. joining me is iowa democratic chair andy mcguire. you sound like a second baseman for the cubs, and republican
chair jeff kaufman. the "hardball" question to you is the secretary of state of iowa say the mailings coming out for the cruz campaign on election eve are false representations of an official act. your view as the party chair. referee this baby. >> our secretary of state has been elected three times. he's our official election official in this state. i'm going to let he and the cruz campaign work this thing out. >> so you're not going to decide who is right or wrong? >> no, i'm not the election official. i provide hopefully a fair -- >> what's the party chairman's job if it isn't to be the important person deciding these things? >> not to decide policy. not to determine what -- >> like debbie wasserman schultz when i ask her the difference between a democrat and a socialist. not talking. let me ask you about this race. i am surprised at your party, the democratic party, is so the open in expressing its ideology to the left. i know your state has always amazed me. tom harkin re-elected over and over and over again.
a hubert humphrey democrat, democrat, dim, unhyphenated. >> on the other side, grassley. very traditional party people. now you have gone to a primary, a caucus that looks like maybe trump will win and maybe bernie will be within two or three points. what happened? >> well, i don't know -- >> you have insurgencies going on. >> we do. i think people are trying to express themselves. this is what's great about it. >> they used to express themselves by voting for bob dole over and over again. and bushes, bushes, bushes over and over again. now bush is running at 2%. well, i'm going to go back and forth if you don't answer. what's going on out here? why is everybody going bonkers? >> this is what's great about iowa. if you just had sound bites, we might have a different outcome but in iowa you can go face the voters and the voters can tell what you they're thinking. >> what's their mood? what's the mood in the republican party? >> people are angry. i mean, people aren't satisfied with when we send folks to washington, they're not
following through, and i think there's a greet deal of enthusiasm. i think this is an unorthodox 2016. >> are you surprised -- i think citizens united has gotten more power as a negative than a positive so far. everybody said the koch brothers will run this campaign. madison from vegas will roun this campaign. they spent $15 million out here on the bush campaign and nada. trump is out here sort of living off the land. >> chris, that's the beauty, honestly, of the iowa causes -- >> and bernie is running against citizens united. >> yes. juke take your message to the people. we're a relatively inexpensive media market. you can do the full grass league 9 the tour. you can bypass the traditional venues and take it to the people. i think that's what's happening. >> that's exactly what's happening. citizens united, all our candidates are against it. >> neither republicans, regular conservatives, or democratic liberals, progressives, like the iraq war. i see nobody out there waving the banner for the iraq war and
i think that's one reason why jeb is in trouble. they didn't like what "w" did. your thoughts. can you say that? are you allowed to say that? that the iraq war was a mistake? >> that would be a personal opinion on my part. i'm not going to express that one way or the other. >> it seems to be hurting the bush guy. >> i can tell you this, among the issues i'm hearing about out there in the republican primary, i'm not hearing a lot about the iraq war. what i'm hearing -- >> because the hawks won't talk anymore. that's why, they're finished. >> i think they're talking about what is at their kitchen table. they're talking about college affordability and income inequality. they're not talking about the iraq war. i agree with him. >> do you know why? >> why? >> it was a disaster. let me ask you about jeb. why is he zero out here. he's at 2%. he's got name i.d. which is 100%. why is he getting 2%. ju >> you can take it directly to the people in iowa, if this was new york -- >> is he the dog food the dog doesn't like despite all the
advertising. >> you clearly don't want the republican chair to phrase anything like that. >> i'm going to give that to you. >> out here, how about o'malley. everybody sort of likes martin o'mall o'malley. >> he's a great candidate. >>'s a govern he's a governor, effective governor. there's questions about billion, -- baltimore, a troubled city. >> i know polls were right but when i'm out around the state, i hear a lot for o'malley. i think we have -- >> give me a number. give me a prediction. >> andy mcguire. >> it's o'malley and -- i'm making the connection. just kidding. he'll do better than expected. >> i think he will. >> andy mcguire, the democratic chair and jeff, the republican chair. great to have you on. you seem to be friendly with each other. just a day away from knowing who will leave iowa the winner and who will be looking for
redemption in new hampshire. i will speak with iowa's pollster and top political reporter about which way this race is going tomorrow. they have to make these predictions. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. before i had the shooting, burning, pins-and-needles of diabetic nerve pain, these feet were the first in my family to graduate from college, raised active twin girls, and trained as a nurse. but i couldn't bear my diabetic nerve pain any longer. so i talked to my doctor and he prescribed lyrica. nerve damage from diabetes causes diabetic nerve pain. lyrica is fda approved to treat this pain. lyrica may cause serious allergic reactions or suicidal thoughts or actions. tell your doctor right away if you have these, new or worsening depression, or unusual changes in mood or behavior. or swelling, trouble breathing, rash, hives, blisters, muscle pain with fever, tired feeling or blurry vision. common side effects are dizziness, sleepiness,
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welcome back to "hardball" live from java joe's in des moines, iowa. the latest polling shows donald trump is the front-runner according to "the des moines register"/bloomberg poll. trump leads cruz by five points and momentum is in his favor apparently. trump is up by six points -- moched up by six since earlier this month. that's just in january, since the 10th, while cruz has dropped by a couple points. meanwhile, the republican establishment seems to have collapsed in iowa.
george w. bush carried this state in 2000. george herbert walker bush did the same in 1980 but jeb bush doesn't even register in the top six this year. he has 2% of the vote here. what's happening in the republican party. jennifer jacobs is chief politics reporter for "the des moines register" and ann seltzer is an iowa pollster who conducted "the des moines register" poll. this is going to be fun. i love trying to -- you're the crystal ball person but you're right. you have this great reputation out here ann. was this because of the newbies, certainly trump, and bernie sanders, left and right coming at the center. >> it gets harder every year. just the mek anythichanics of t get in contact with people, that's harder every year. on the republican side awed huge field and trying to get a handle on what that was going to mean in terms of turnout because in theory you had 17 candidates who could be bringing in new people. just made the whole thing difficult to be sure. and the democratic side, you had
kind of deja vu all over again. a presumptive nominee who had a huge lead not so very long ago and she's stair stepped down. bernie sanders in each successive poll we have done has gotten more and more and more support. >> when you see a crowd, jennifer, and you see the enthusiasm for trump or for bernie, is there any way to crosswalk that over to a poll and say, yeah, that makes sense with ann's poll? >> yeah, definitely. you see amazing enthusiasm for both bernie sanders and for trump. they are loud, a very loud audience for both of them. >> what about this stick-to-itiveness we're reading about, ann. you have polled on this. will you stick to your candidate or wobble? >> this is where donald trump has a nice advantage. 71% of his voters say we cannot be moved and that's very strong. if you think that's impressive, hillary clinton, it's 83% of her supporters. >> i think that's one reason why i think hillary, even though she's only two ahead in your poll, i'm feeling strong on hillary. i don't know what's in -- somebody says to me, hillary is
stronger than she looks. >> she's three ahead and exactly. she has the strengths in this poll. people are seei ing her as the person they want to be the nominee, to be the president. they see her as being the better leader, as having the strength and experience. >> let's talk margin of error. my least favorite topic, the most boring topic in the world. what's your margin of error? >> plus or minus four. if hillary could be four points less and bernie could be four months more, the poll doesn't mean anything. >> or equally likely the poll is farther apart with hillary with the biggest lead. the best estimate is the number we gave. the three-point lead. everything else is an intferior estimate. >> you came out of the field friday night. >> we did. >> i like to do two things when i make a prediction. i take the number on thursday -- if i can get it friday i love
it, and i project it through wind direction and do the trajectory. how do you figure the trajectory going from friday to monday night? >> you know, if we saw a trajectory we would have published a poll -- a chart that showed a trajectory. one of the surprising things was not a lot of movement the four days we were in the field. previous caucuses we saw the howard dean graph of doom, that on the day one of our last poll he started as a contender and he popped down to fourth place by the end of the time. we have seen people come out of nowhere -- >> in other words you see this number prevailing on monday night, the one you put based on the field friday. >> we have no reason to feel there's a prevailing wind at the back -- >> it's so interesting. >> no reason to think bernie is dropping in a way that howard dean did in 2004 nor is he rising like rick santorum did, for example, in 2012 where ann really detected that last-minute surge where the republican winner from last cycle was doubling his support over the course of the poll. >> what happened to the republican party out here, the one we grew up with, the
unhyphenated republicans. i voted for dole, i voted for the bushes. now that seems to have dissipated. >> it does seem to have dissipated. now, we also had a fair number of candidates who represent that side of the republican party and because they're taking two points, three points, four points here and there, it allows donald trump with just 28% of the vote to be -- >> those people when they see your poll, now we get to dynamics, the last question which is my favorite. the new word was dynamic. when they see your poll and they see hillary up three, they see donald trump up five or six, when they see that and they say they're the front-runners, do they scramble from the lower tiered candidates to one of the two two to have an impact on the lest? >> there's no science that says one aor the other. the caucuses are designed to have -- >> democratic caucuses are. republicans you walk in, you vote. the democrats -- >> there are speeches in the
republican caucus, too. there are surrogates there -- >> you can go in and vote and leave though, right? >> yes, you can. you have to listen to speeches first. >> the democratic one you have the saturday morning television for kids where you have to stand in one corner and go to the other corner. there used to be a quiz show like that for kids. it's been an honor to have you on. you are very well respected and you write the main bar which is always impressive. it's easy to write columns. writing the main bar is tough. thank you jennifer and ann. wait for them on monday night if something goes wrong. they will be around. up next, iowa has a special place in history for propelling unknown candidates to front-runner status and for taking down establishment candidates. nbc's tom brokaw is coming here next. he's been covering the caucuses his '80. this is "hardball," the place for politics, live from des moines, iowa. hey pal? you ready?
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the man who campaigned the most in iowa did catch reagan and pass him, george bush. >> iowa sent something in motion, forward moan tum clearly established and i'm convinced i will be your next president. thank you very, very much. >> we're back. what a picture, nbc's tom brokaw covering iowa caucus in des moines, 1980. republican victor, george herbert walker bush, a part of the washington establishment at that time. senator bob dole and george w. bush follow in that tradition in the caucuses that followed in '88, '96, 2000. the hawkeye state shown a renegade streak.
choosing lesser known conditions like mike huckabee in 2008 and rick santorum in 2012. neither went on to win the republican nomination. joined by tom brokaw. i was going through the list, tom. this date used to be predictable for midwestern-type guys, bushes and bob dole, always won out here. pretty predictable, unhyphenated republicans. that's been superseded by the tea party, the evangelicals, now this trump thing, apparently. >> we don't know exactly what the root of it are, except, having to talked to a lot of people, he's taking first-timers to first caucuses because this state, like other states, doing very well, 3.4% unemployment, ethanol and farming booming, you've seen des moines, how it's booming but the rest are
half-cocked in the tick top position. a man here who has an ethanol station, convenience store, never gone to a caucus, but back in washington, testifying about ethanol, that gave him all of washington he wanted to see or here. he's going to vote for trump in the caucus. >> he's for ethanol. >> not just ethanol. he doesn't think the establishment works anymore. seeing george bush, who you must remember, beat be a favorite son, reagan, to begin his career. bush came along. the next morning, at the hotel i saw him and i had him say to me, i got the big mo. >> you gotta quote. he took into new hampshire and it didn't -- >> it worked. the campaign manager for reagan -- >> a lot happened that week, didn't it? >> yeah. >> let me ask you about the democrats and i'm surprised, because you and i grew up with the seterm socialist, not communist, but not a nice word.
people iowa said, fine, i'm a socialist. >> i iowa's had a mixed history when it comes to populist politics. henry wallace, harold hughes the governor at this state one time. old fashioned grassroots populist type. >> tell them who henry wallace was. >> henry wallace a man who ran for president, agricultural genius, you know, in terms of control development and those things. and coming forward, to my time, harold hughes former truck driver who became a big, brawny governor of iowa but a left democrat, quite honestly, populist guy. >> recovering alcoholic. a lot of personalty. >> so there have been moments. john calder, a teddy kennedy roommate in harvard and teddy kennedy democrat. >> how do you put it together, grassley for life, harken for
life, same lecher two, left and right. >> it's not unusual in these states. i come from south dakota, for example. a time in south dakota we had mcgovern the senator, and joe faus, left and right, two of them had one common commitment, which is to do what was best for the state. and i think that's true with harkens and charles grassley. they're not mortal enemies. see the political world -- >> tomorrow night, what do you think it says? >> i don't know. we're all trying to keep track of this. i've been lectured before but i don't want to make calls early. >> what's it say? >> what does it say is that, i think if trump wins tomorrow night, is that it means that the country is angrier than we thought. >> thank you, tom brokaw. that does it for us tonight "hardball" tune in 8:00 eastern, brian williams and rachel maddow
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intend to do. iowa has its critics. some say the iowa winner is not that relevant. since 2000 the most recent caucuses competitive on either side of the aisle, we mean years that didn't have an incumbent president running for re-election, those six contests have yielded what you see here. two candidates, john kerry, al gore, went on to win new hampshire, four candidates, kerry, gore, bush, barack obama went on to be nominees and two of the six, bush and obama, ended up in the white house. so if anything, the two most recent presidents have one big thing in common, won iowa, went to new hampshire, went to the white house. 13 candidates making closing arguments to iowans and with 43 separate events around the state today. for democrats, hillary clinton holds on to a narrow lead over bernie sanders in the final des moines register/bloomberg
politics poll, within that magical margin on error. clinton knows it will come down to the wire and hopes snowy weather report won't stand in the way of a win. >> come out and caucus. sign up for some go to caucus shifts. don't worry about the weather. i have it on very good guidance that the storm won't start till after midnight. >> we don't know what her guidance is, but okay. a lot of us are hoping it won't start until 9:00 a.m. tuesday, to be honest. anyway, some democratic leaders starting to express concerns that sanders is the nominee could hurt down ballot democrats sanders told me it clinton that is the one that those democrats should be worrying about. >> hillary clinton will be the problem because i think our campaign is the campaign that is generating excitement and energy that will result in a high voter turnout. republicans win when voter
turnout is low. democrats win when voter turnout is high. >> i'll talk to one of sanders' few supporters in congress, arizona's recall degrgrialva. donald trump doughs into tomorrow sitting on top of the poll. ted cruz is five points behind. momentum seems to be on trump's side. note too, marco rubio improved since the last poll as well. rubio's gaining late traction in a state where his campaign didn't always dedicate as many resources as rivals did. as cruz's support seems to stall a tad, the door may open to a possible second place surprise for rubio. >> if you caucus for me, and i am our nominee, i will unite the conservative movement. >> we will defeat the democrats, turn this country around. >> and cruz is facing ai bit of
backlash over direct mailers sent from his campaign. the mailers were made to look like official documents reading, quote, voting violation that rate the resip yaecipient on a f a to f. everybody got an "f." even @ secretary of state condemned them, calling misrepresentation of his office and iowa election laws. for trump, our own msnbc's chris matthews got the front-runner to weigh in on cruz and the mailer within the last hour. here's a snippet. >> violation, and they give you "fs" for voting records and saying, immediately come and vote. i think it's one of the most horrible things that i've seen in politics. and i've seen pretty bad stuff, just like you have. >> so just 24 hours from now, you might still be asking yourself, what exactly will be happening? well, here's everything you need to know in 85 seconds. >> caucuses are held in places
like schools, churches, and government buildings. and it's where voters gather and show up in person to select their candidate. at one of over 1600 precincts across iowa. but in iowa, republicans and democrats caucus very differently. so let's start with the republicans. it's easier. they show up to their caucus location and cast a secret ballot for the candidate of their choice. delegates are awarded proportionally, based on their overall statewide vote total. pretty straightforward, right. >> it's basically an old fashioned firehouse primary. now, if only it were that simple for the democrats. first, there are pitches from representatives of each candidate. then, voters move around the caucus site. let's say a high school gym, and gather with like-minded supporters. clinton supporters in one corner, sanders backers in another, o'malley folks in a third and undeclared, they meet as well. but for example, if o'malley, who is polling the lowest, kand receive at least 15% support at
this site, his supporters can go to another candidate, or become undeclared. by the way, this works the same for the undeclared. if they don't get 15%, in he have to choose ahong those who did meet the threshold. this continues until only viable candidates with at least 15% support or the undeclared group, if they have 15% support, remain. i promise you, when we report the results, it will be more confusing tomorrow night. let'sic can things off, a great group of reporters who have covered their share of caucuses over the years. dan balls, political reporter for "the washington post," the chief. kay henderson, marc caputo, report for politico based in miami. two presidential candidates on his list. welcome all. kay, your state, you start first. first, how is our explanation? we do all right. >> perfect. loved animation. may be more animated on caucus night actually. >> there you go.
the one new thing i've learned today is that the clinton folks seem to be so prepared that they might be able to pump up o'malley in places to take delegates away from sanders. explain how that would work. >> back to your animation. when you showed all of the o'malley people going to other people, let's say there's 100 people in a caucus, you get four delegates and o'malley people only have seven people in their block, the clinton people may give them eight so that they can have one delegate. instead of -- >> it keeps bernie from splitting it two and two. >> exactly. >> exactly what obama did to clinton eight years ago which is why edwards was a fake second place, right? >> right. >> even in miami, we don't do elections that way, do we? >> just go right to absentee ballot fraud. >> how about that? this is -- bernie sanders, for instance, could have more people coming to see him but the
clinton folks may be more organized. >> i come from flori-da. by our elections irregular tears, these are bizarre. >> it does get to a larger point, the clinton team, on the ground, looks like at obama team eight years ago, doesn't it? >> very much, not by accident. they went to school on what they did wrong, what the obama team did right and built an organization this time that combined the best of both, if you will, but took a lot of cues from obama. the difference in organizations, as i've talked to people over last few days, is that, sanders, as somebody said, was drinking from a firehose early on in the process. he was drawing big crowds. he had no real infrastructure to be able to capture that. he's also had the burden of having to find a lot of new people. the clinton people started earlier, know who their people are, and can go through the kind of thing you're talking about, the training, to figure out how
to maximize delegates at each precinct, in a way it's not clear that the sanders people are able to do. >> they have an app for caucus night to do the math inside to figure these things out. >> tell me this, is -- can bernie sanders win tomorrow night? >> he could, if there's a huge turnout. >> you're skeptical. >> i'm not sure there's going to be a huge turnout. look at des moines register poll, it doesn't seem as if things are lining for him in the same way they were lining for obama in '08. >> it been interesting, his crowds, there is -- there is some juice there for sanders, no doubt about it, mark. but her numbers are steady. and des moines register poll blew up one piece of conventional wisdom. sanders people are more enthusiastic. no, clinton won that number. >> the times i've listened in on the clinton conference calls with donors, they've laid out how metric centric that is. unless they're lying, i'd be
surprised if she lost in iowa. >> the other thing about the caucuses is the people who are most likely to go are repeat offenders, people who have been before. and the clinton people have locked down those people, they know who they are, and older women in iowa are energized about this. >> you see it. yes, there is an age difference between the two groups you see it. let's move over to republicans. dan, who is the clinton campaign here as far as organization? is it cruz? >> we assume it's cruz. i mean, by every measure we get, it's cruz. they have been methodical, they've done it the old fashioned way here. you have to think of the leading candidates, three leading candidates they have the best and most reliable organization. when you talk to the cruz team, they will drown you in metrics. i've never dealt with a campaign that has metric that are so precise, down to the -- >> obama '12? >> i think -- i think -- >> another level? >> here, another level.
i mean, maybe i'm giving them more. but i don't know, you know, there's -- there's organization as it looks from the metrics and then there's organization on the street. and there can sometimes be a gap in that. i would say that the kroousz team has the best organization compared to trump's. we don't know enough about trump's. if you go to headquarters here, the storefront headquarters, it's tiny, there's no activity, and they turn you away. they don't want anybody in there. >> the thing about the cruz organization, it has saved him in the past month. those people on the ground talking to one another, opinion leaders and communities -- >> when it looked like he was sinking a little? >> when he was sinking, the trump missiles were coming in, they saved him. they saved his candidacy on the ground. >> mark, i am stunned by the confidence the cruz people have that they're going to win. you don't see that very often. every public poll has him in second and they are saying no, we're ahead, we're going to win.
one end, good for them, if they have that confidence for saying it. we don't usually get that from folks. >> to dan's point, they are incredibly well-organized and the trump campaign, there's guy's one of my colleagues dubbed him the black swan candidate. a black box, this trump campaign. i wouldn't be surprised if cruz won but i wouldn't be surprised if trump did. for the guys i cover in miami, from miami, what i'm looking for is how much does marco rubio overperform, if at all, his numbers in the dmr poll? >> that's what's interesting here. is marco rubio surging or not? i say this, kay, because it goes -- this comes from one of the metrics that the cruz campaign has been showing -- he's been between 13% and 18% the entire last 12 months. so he doesn't -- bobs down if it's a bad couple of weeks but the question is, does he pop the ceiling? what do you think? >> i think the question for him is, does he finish closer to whoever is in second here than
he does to ben carson who looks like he's going to be fourth. the closer he his to second, to he were to get second, which would be a surprise, the better off he is. he wants to put as much distance as he can from jeb bush and all of the other mainstream conservative ends. >> quickly, i was going to wrap up, but he brought up ben carson, kay. if cruz doesn't win, it's because of ben carson, isn't it? >> exactly. he has locked up a group of people who consider him the faithful alternative and they have not left. >> that 10%, i know cruz people are going, they're nervous about it. >> trying to take it from rubio, one of the calculus in ted cruz running those negative ads against rubio. >> the most interesting thing i feel like i learned over last few days trump and cruz do not share anymore voters but cruz and rubio do share voters. it's only just begin. everything has been said but not everybody's said it. looking now at hillary clinton rally under way at the
sioux city convention center in north west, iowa. clinton about to take the stage there. there is is republican turf. caucuses matter, too, for democrats. we'll talk to sander supporter of arizona. as we go to break, check out this unexpected shout out, this was disconcerting from the lincoln heights lutheran church from des moines. reporters said, i don't know what to make of it. we'll be back. i'm going to look to the man upstairs ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business...
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republicans and then after we win, unite our country to actually get some things done for america. >> that's hillary clinton making her final pitch to iowans today as she and former president bill clinton crisscross the state ahead of the caucuses. the latest des moines register/bloomberg politics poll leading. new york editorial board backing the former secretary of state as it did in 2008 primary season. calling her, quote, one of the most broadly and deeply qualified presidential candidates in modern history. but clinton win here is by no means a forgone conclusion, and unprecedented turnout of caucusgoers could lead to a major upset win for bernie sanders. with the sanders camp announcing they've raked in over $20 million in the month of january alone, they're showing that, regardless of who comes out on top tomorrow, they're prepared for a very long haul. joining me now, sanders
supporter, arizona congressman. good to see you. >> good to see you, chuck. thank you. >> let's start with this issue of whether bernie sanders can win iowa or not. if he doesn't win iowa, how does he get the nomination? if you back up, if it's bernie sanders up there in philadelphia, you know, in july, could he have gotten there without winning iowa? >> i think historically, it's happened before. but the confidence in at least the days that we've spent here in iowa with bernie and his very, very, very good ground game and campaign that he has here, i'm feeling very confident that bernie is going to win and that the closest of the race and the momentum is on his side. i think it's going to translate tomorrow to caucusgoers staying, supporting bernie, and at the end of the day, winning. but i think the momentum that he has generated here, will generate in new hampshire.
i think it's going to keep us going for the long haul. >> can you make the case if he loses by a couple of points, the progressive movement won because you pushed secretary clinton. >> you can make an argument you redefined the whole dialogue in conversation of this election. and doing so, i think brought to bear, i think through the party as a whole, which needed it badly. haven't had a real economic platform for two leak cycles in a row, brought back the idea we need to be more representative of the people that put us in office as owe opposed to paying attention to a select few. >> the senator blushed a book, making the case how barack obama let down progressives. do you believe barack obama let down progressives? >> i think -- i think barack obama set a template. could it have gone further? you know, many of us criticized
him on some actions that he took, relative to climate change, but he's in that direction or very happy. issues in terms of the budget deals that i think have come back to haunt us in terms of the cuts and what we agreed to with the ryan budget. all of that being said, there's a template that's been set and progress that has been made under barack and no one is denying that. i think what bernie is doing is taking that template and building on it and saying it's okay to have bold initiatives that we can search for and continue to push for in the future. the thing that none of us want to happen is that we take a step forward and take two back, which has been the pattern, unfortunately. >> let me ask you this about nancy pelosi, leader of the house democrats, she goes, i want to run on a platform of raising taxes and bernie sanders's proposals, when he makes no bones, he's going to raise taxes pay for some of this
stuff. that seems to not -- nancy pelosi is someone who argues more to the left than hillary clinton but is worried about the electability issue. what do you say? >> i think the electability issue and investment, college opportunities, economic fairness, issue of everybody paying their fair share and concentrating where the revenue needs to be generated on 1%, corporate america, i don't think that kind of creating that kind of equality in the tax base is necessarily you can category rise it as raising taxes. the idea that people pay for health care extended particularly into the middle class and others and that the savings from premiums and costs will more than make up for that and actually create a net gain of $5,000. i don't think that's raising taxes. i don't think we should be afraid of talking about investment. it's going to cost. >> republicans are going to runs against it. >> it's where you generate the
revenue. >> they'll say he's raising taxes, no democrat raised taxes that much in 50 years. you know what the hits will look like. >> hits back are tax initiative made, almost cost a depression, now you've created a situation where we're locked into a system that continues to accumulate wealth and power in one -- in a small percentage and continues to put the burden on the rest of us. >> let me ask you, as a leading hispanic member of congress, you've seen the numbers among hispanic voters, as this primary season moves on, electorates get worse, she's doing better with hispanics and african-americans. what does he need to do improve his numbers with hispanics? >> he has a fine integrated staff and message that covers all of the constituents in our party. i think it's another part of the
methodology. there's somehow this impregnata wall of color that he can't penetrate. i think that's absolutely wrong. the message of economic fairness, income equality, how to correct that, i think when we get to south carolina, nevada, and those states, in which the constituencies are much more diverse, i think that myth will be put to rest. >> good to see you. get back before the storm. do some votes. appreciate it. could we see an upset in iowa tomorrow? kentucky senator rand paul thinks he'll be a part of the upset talk. hear from him after the boat. a slew of last-minute campaigns. jeb bush rally in clinton, iowa.
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we are back with the tale of the tally. the final des moines register poll before the caucuses has rand paul in fifth place. he's at 5% but the kentucky senator insisted to me earlier today that the numbers don't tell the whole story. senator, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> fun to have you on earlier this morning on the sunday "meet the press." let me ask you this, what -- you were saying, you questioned some of the poll results that you saw in "the des moines register" poll. that's when a candidate does when you're behind. why are you sure all of us are underpolling your supporters. >> we think our great strength is with younger voters and younger voters are on cell phones, they're not on the list to be called. i've been the leading spokesman against the government collecting cell phone records. i also am one saying, you know, when kids make a mistake with
marijuana or drugs, let give them a second chance. we think a lot of the youth vote is going 0 to come to us. we're working hard on college campuses to turn them out, too. >> a yearing a, many of us, including myself, we thought who was going to be the outsider who could be electable, we looked at you, then suddenly hurricane trump comes in. and you don't look as much like an outsider. i had somebody say the reason for trump, you know, he's a maverick. i asked them about you and cruz. they said, they're in washington. like first name, senator bothered them. >> i don't think it's that so much. i think the election has been consumed by celebrity and celebrity polling. the news cycle dictating over and over, if you look at trump's coverage, he's getting 25 times what the rest of the field combined is getting. it becomes a self-fulfilling prophe prophecy. we don't think the polls have a great deal of accuracy. in the kentuckys of governor race with one week to go, they were off by 13 points.
we think there's a great chance for a surprise and we want to be part of it. >> what's interesting about trump, it does seem, and i've talked to some of his supporters, they sound like people that used to -- they are libertarians, particularly some of it, foreign policy. he has sort of tried to come across as a noninterventionist. >> he has a variety of opinions. against the iraq war, sort of, after a while, but also in favor of bombing the you know what out of people over there just like cruz, let's make the sand glow. libertarians and liberty-leaning people really aren't for indiscriminate bombing. we think you may create more terrorists than you kill. he's aggressively for a survey lent state. he's been for using eminent domain to grab up private property for his casinos i think of trump as being authoritarian than libertarian.
>> how committed are you to go on to new hampshire if things don't go well tomorrow night? >> i grew up as a competitor, swimming, swimming my life, swimming in college. we went in to win. if i get fourth or fifth, i'm not going on. only thing you can think about is winning. part of the problem is we discount voting in favor of even polling. they're even talking about the presidential debate after iowa being based on polling, not elections. >> no, once voting starts, there's only one thing. >> base your decision on the elections, how people vote. >> i noticed you're saying if you're not doing well here on tuesday morning, you're going to rethink things? >> we are planning to win. we think we have votes to win. we'll surprise a lot of people. we've made a million phone calls, we have 1,000 precinct chairs. we're going to surprise people. >> stay safe on the trail. let's bring in msnbc political analyst ben ginsburg
and the national review eliana johnson. george w. bush and mitt romney. i have to saying i appreciate it when a candidate doesn't quite beat around the bush. he didn't beat around the bush, he said, look, we think we'll do well, it's not fourth or fifth. >> he may stick to new hampshire, his father did well there. there's a reservoir of paul supporters there. certainly what he was saying. >> it's interesting, when you go to a trump event, you interview some of the people at trump event, you're like, these people used to be rand paul and ron paul supporters. when you wonder what happened to a guy, january of '15 started with like 18% here, he and walker. where did they go? they went to trump i think. >> i think some of them did. the other problem he's encountered ted cruz has eaten into his libertarian base and
eaten his lunch when it comes it that. rand, it was interesting to hear him talking about what a fierce competitor he is. he may be in that he'll drop out if he doesn't get first or second place. ted cruz has shown that real fearness and foremidibility. >> what's tuesday? who allows iowa to be their make or break and who decides to go to new hampshire? >> well, i think mike huckabee and rick santorum probably carly fiorina, ben carson, perhaps, have to look at iowa as their best hope in the early primary states. >> states that -- this is the place that their message -- >> got to make a breakthrough. >> new hampshire is no the a place for them? >> no. south carolina is an iffy state. >> south carolina is a -- >> it's a long -- >> yeah, that's a huge amount of time. is that what you expect. >> i think if ted cruz doesn't
win, it's not make or break because he has money in the bank. i think he's going to regret having made iowa make or break and he's forced that upon himself. his campaign has to do real soul searching if he doesn't win. >> you're criticizing him for doing that. >> for having raised expectationed, he said he has to win iowa. >> i like to work backwards. philadelphia, ted cruz is the nominee, does he get there without winning iowa? i don't know that scenario. >> i hope it will be cleveland. >> cleveland. apologies. i don't know a scenario -- >> i think looking at demographics of iowa it's a place where ted cruz managed to get local support, sees basically sympathetic voters. needs to parlay iowa into the super tuesday states where there are a lot of misnatural supporters. >> what do you think, is there anything left that could surprise us on monday night? are we so chewing through every single ridiculous scenario that we can all point to, we saw that coming at 2:00 on a thursday
afternoon? >> i think rubio coming in second could really surprise a lot of people i think ben carson coming in third could surprise a lot of people. >> you think carson could grow? >> i think potentially. >> if he's third, who is fourth? kroousz cruz or trump. >> rubio could underperform, carson could overperform. >> i got ya. >> i think kasich, christie, bush, if one breaks out of the 3% morass. >> to what? >> well, to -- >> does it matter? the three are all going to new hampshire. some are now. >> somebody will get a puff of wind here to go to new hampshire, that's what they're hoping. >> you think? >> i think they're hoping they will. >> i was going to say, i don't think the evidence is there. it feels like three candidates plus a cluhunk that won't leave ben carson. >> i think that's true. if carson surprises and some of his voters really show up, and
rubio underperformed, that could be a huge upset and fatal to rubio going into new hampshire. i think he needs momentum out of iowa. >> the flip side is true. rubio overperforms 15%, that's a big surprise. >> totally. >> philadelphia, it's rubio. >> cleveland. >> i mean cleveland. i keep doing that. you guys did -- >> philadelphia 2000. >> come on. >> fair enough. >> all right. thank you both. we shall see. >> thank you. >> roundtable, more of them, up next. of course keeping a close watch on all of the live campaign events happening across the state. here's bill clinton speaking now in cedar rapids. let's listen in. >> -- /* become a northern ireland company. corporate tax, they take the money and save themselves and then decide they will evade $150 million a year in corporate taxes, which could be used to make health care work better, to
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iowa caucuses and those doors open and the first votes of the 2016 presidential race are cast. and the candidates are out on the trail if full force along with bill clinton stumping in cedar rapids, jeb bush holding a town hall, clinton, iowa, why not? candidates are fully aware massive voter turnout could up-end the race. will embrace it? will the first-time caucusgoers show up? joined here by msnbc national
correspondent, joy reid, correspondent chris jansing, kerry dan, and alex seitz. welcome all. you were here for a couple of cycles in iowa, everybody turn out, turn out, turn out. democratic side, put up '08 and '04, gives you the high and the low, here it is, 124. look at barack obama victory, 239. that tells -- we think the number's somewhere in between. if it's closer to '04 it's hillary clinton night. >> absolutely. when you look at especially at the new "des moines register" poll that came out last night, we saw that at least by that modeling, estimating a third of caucusgoer to be new caucusgoers compared to 60% in 2000. if the caucusgoers show up, not
just in university towns, not just extremely progressive parts of the state but a very set part way around the state i think that bernie sanders has a chance. if he doesn't, or if he turns out a lot of 0 the students, it doesn't matter because they're in a small geographical space. you don't get more delegates if you're only in ames. >> when confronted with the numbers, ran into one of the sanders strategists and they said, we've got a first-time caucusgoer problem. hopefully they missed it. they know 35% first time, that's not enough. >> right. obama had a similar strategy with all of it comparing to obama. the difference is obama had a standard traditional statewide campaign, and these young people and the first time caucusgoers were ice on the cake. bernie sanders started with the icing and trying to build the cake underneath it. they know they have this problem and trying to address it. college students are not on
break. that's that's they're concentrating on college campuses. they rented every van to try to get students home but that's a huge lift. >> the other thing, i noticed at clinton events, i'm finding a lot of obama '08 people that are now clinton. >> yeah. >> bad for bernie. >> one of the big questions for the hillary clinton campaign, can she convert obama. but largely she has. i think particularly because she has wrapped her campaign around the obama legacy. so if you are an obama democrat and want legacy protection, hillary clinton is sort of really appealing to that voter. and the president himself had a few things to say about that, leaning in her direction. >> my gosh. absolutely. he's the most -- chris you've been on the republican trail a lot. we did the same thing with republican turnout. i added a few twists here. gubernatorial primary turnouts from 2010, 2014 the senate race.
republican turnout mnumbers. '08, 119, huckabee. santorum 121,000 turnout. the question is, is it going to look more like a primary? joni ernst, 162. when terry branstad came back into getting republican nomination, their high 229. i think we know what the ceiling is, skri chris, 229. floor is '08. cruz people think 150 or less. if it's 150 or less, they win. >> they do, and they feel good about that. everybody's playing expectations game. you don't know and they're telling you what they think is going to happen, whether that's what they think is going to happen. rubio trying to set expectations for cruz, saying he has to win an i lot of this is about that. when you look at who's going to turn out, i will tell you anecdotally, it reflect what i hear from the republican campaigns, you're kidding yourself if you think there's
some spectacular, new record set. that donald trump is going to bring in tens of thousands of people, that in fact, they are all looking at a pretty status quo or slightly above stat out quo. >> i'm trying to steal your notes here. i've got props. my only thing i wonder why i think it could be a higher turnout. this is just the last week of direct mail, mostly republican, some democratic direct mail. i have a family friend who have a split household, we get the great mail. more money has been spent in iowa on tv than we've seen ever. it's hard to imagine somehow it's flat turnout with all of that money spent. that would be -- if i'm rance priebus all of this money spent and i can't juice up turnout after that? >> if you think money spent on tv is an indicator of support -- >> they have the right to rise. >> they do have the right to rise. >> it doesn't mean they can rise. >> $70 million on tv is a huge
unprecedented amount. there's also fatigue, though. and donald trump has managed to push through that. he's done just nominal advertising, up until the very beginning of the year. and then spending as much as $1 million a week in the state. but just that saturation on tv might not be the kind of thing that turns people off. >> go to trump rallies, alex, packed. cruz rallies, packed. rubio starting to get it. there are more 200, 300, 400-person rallies for the top five or six candidates this cycle. that's why i just feel as if the -- i know what the numbers say, i haven't seen it, so much money, so much -- to me it would be disappointing to the gop if they don't get a bigger turnout. >> any republican you talk to, when i do talk to republicans, say this is the strongest field they've ever seen. a lot of candidates, people fired up by the candidates. you think that would bring it up. talking about a low turnout type election like caucuses there's room to grow, right, so it does
inconceivable, that's it. i think that the fatigue that kerry talked about is so real. turn on your tv and inundated with ads. open the mailbox and get flooded with mailers. >> who's playing the local tv game? >> as soon as i got in. >> first ad stuck out. >> first ad that came out was anti-trump ad. he's a democrat and pro-choice. that played a lot. >> that stuck out? what penetrated for you when you watched? >> just the numbers. like the sheer numbers. sometimes you forget when you haven't been out very much, like for three years. it comes back. and suddenly you're like, it's unrelentless. it's absolutely unrelenting. i say to the turnout point and what alex just said, anecdotally, i've been surprised in the closing days, weeks, going to rallies, and the number of people who say they don't intend to caucus or a husband and wife were there and only one
is going to caucus or uber driver today who told me he was going but his wife had to stay home with the baby. those are kind of things that's so different. >> for bernie sanders, by the way, he feels -- >> and donald trump. >> people marginally attached to the process, i can't tell you how many split households between hillary clinton and bernie sanders, a stable group used to the process. trump and sanders voters are the least attached. interesting to see if they convert their passion. >> two ads stuck out, one of course america, that thing is on a loop. and gives you that and the other hearing rush limbaugh narrate an attack ad against rubio. he's not just using his voice. that jumped out at me. i bet you that one left a mark. >> the cruz/rubio back and forth is interesting. at this point, cruz's game trying to take voters away from ben carson and marco rubio. >> yeah. >> voters are not as attached to
their candidate. you can't take trump voters at this point. >> no. >> you guys are sticking around, and alex. more to talk about. hillary clinton, by the way, speaking now at a rally in sioux city. she's got chelsea with her. let's listen in. >> going to the caucus, making your decisions. there are a couple of people that i especially want to thank because we are so grateful for everybody's support here. i want to start by thanking your state representative, dave dawson for his support, his endorsement. working on my feet all day gave me pain here.
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cuts for the wealthy, get out of the way of corporations, their campaigns are promoting the same old snake oil that have gotten us into trouble in the past. and we cannot let them take back the white house. there is way too much danger in that for hard working americans. >> electability there. there's the plessage, you hear it at all of the hillary clinton rallies last few days. joy reid, chris jansing, carrey dann, alex seitz-wald. >> she's like i'll bring new voters. >> anecdotal but i got the greatest quote from another uber driver who i said -- >> be careful. twitter will be beating you up on that one. >> what he said -- we'll go lyft
drivers. >> trying to decide between hillary and bernie. i said what's going to make the difference? i wrote it down, i'm looking for pragmatic answers to real problems, not ideological tag lines. >> le made his decision. >> and i said, so obviously, he said, honestly, i think in the end it's going to come down to who can win, though my heart is probably going with bernie sanders, i think in terms what's going to affect my family, my future, my business, it's probably hillary. >> let me show you something where the nrcc, republican party's house campaign arm for house candidates, look at this fund-raising solace taking they put out today that targeted bernie sanders. look at what they used. let's put it up on the screen here. all right. here we go. no, that's not it, guys. right here, let's get it in. that's what bernie sanders raised. no it's a republican party
solicitation nrcc, it uses a hammer and sickle, alex and carrey. hopefully we can get it on screen here. and it was -- i got the sense it was like they thought, maybe this is -- there it is. they put it out. look, we've got it from your twitter feed. those is what they put out today. talked about this is what bernie sanders is the nominee could be. i got the feeling when i saw it, the republican party saying this might be our last day to try this. >> to juice the numbers and raise money. how better to raise money than saying the next president could be there. claire mccaskill called it. >> called or gave them the idea? >> either way. she's the big clinton backer this cycle. but she's right. bernie sanders can say as much as he wants, that he's for denmark-style democratic socialism but republicans are not too convinced by that and it's a lot of this go into november. just up to democrats whether they are worried to much about
that, if they think his massive turnout machine -- >> you hear sanders people say, they said the same thing about the black guy in 2008. the caution on that there's a longstanding, decades-long yearning to elect a black president, right. >> go bazs goes back to robert kennedy. that's an undercurrent in american, popular culture. black presidents portrays in movies and television. there isn't a similar longing to elect a socialist. you're not tapping into an existing yearning. that is one of the challenges with equating the sanders moment with obama. it's a very different -- >> it's one of the reasons people running his campaign many will tell you they never imagined they will be in this position. >> ten seconds hard. i've got to go. thank you all. don't go anywhere. we're coming back at the top of the hour for more special
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of a heart attack or stroke. decrease alcohol use while taking chantix. use caution when driving or operating machinery. most common side effect is nausea. being a non-smoker feels great. ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. >> it's the music, you know how much i love that music. it means we actually get to see people voting and actually count the votes. good evening again, from lovely iowa, now officially 24 hours from the caucus kick-off. i'm chuck todd coming to you from the west end architectural salvage in des moines. a terrific vintage furniture shop as well, a great coffee shop. continuing our special coverage of the 2016 iowa caucuses.
hillary clinton and bernie sanders are hammering the same point home to voters today, each arguing that the key to a successful democratic down ballot is their name sitting at the top of the ticket. >> stick with me, stick with a plan, stick with the experience. stick with the ideas that will actually work for our country. >> the excitement and the energy is with our campaign. our message, our energy will drive a very large voter turnout, which will mean not only that we retain the white house, we regain the senate, we win governors chairs all over this country. >> so, sanders is selling the progressive enthusiasm, that's followed his campaign, as the factor that he believes could keep democrats in the white house and flip a republican congress. now, sanders does lead the youth vote but can he bring enough new caucusgoers to those various
sites tomorrow night to pull out the upset and prove his point? in the final "des moines register"/bloom politics poll they found hillary clinton leads sanders but very, very narrowly. this race is within the margin of error. republican front-runner needs first-time caucusgoers. donald trump at the top of the heap, five points ahead of ted cruz in that poll, who is dedicated tremendous resources to this state. much like sanders, as i hinted at, trump has been able to harness a raw enthusiasm at rallies. but he called it anger, and it's not just coming from republican voters. listen when he told chris matthews earlier tonight about what he thinks is driving his support levels. >> anger's in the democrat party, there is an anger in both parties. there's an anger in the country about the incompetence. >> trump says he can unite all of the angry voices into the
change the country needs. he's going to need to get them to caucus first. our correspondents are all over the state. let's bring in our crew and see what's going on in the campaigns. let's begin with hallie jackson with the cruz campaign live in des moines. katy tur with the trump campaign in sioux city. kristen welker in des moines, cover the clinton campaign. kasie hunt at sanders campaign in des moines. andrea mitchell here on set. halle, i'll start with you. i've got to ask you about something we just saw from ur colleague, vaughn hilliard, embed on the cruz campaign, about a mishap with ted cruz tonight. tell us about it. >> reporter: yeah, a little bit of a mishap in the campaign, hoping it's not a metaphor, the bus got stuck in the mud and had to be towed out. phil elliott able to snap a picture of this. the campaign was able to get ted
cruz and the staff to the next event. they be at iowa state fair grounds for the big closing argument, hoping where senator cruz seals the deal. 45% of likely republican caucusgoers according to t"the des moines register" poll that could be convinced to change their minds. they do, ted cruz would benefit the most. what is the campaign doing? as we speak, volunteers are making phone calls no the just get out the vote but to be able to talk people into supporting ted cruz even if they support somebody else. so the campaign believes it's doing something that really hasn't been done at this nitty-gritty level before. three things. one, identifying who these potential caucusgoers are, who they support, figuring out they support ted cruz as a second choice. second, being able to figure out what issues matter, and third, having the script to be able to talk to them, try to convince them to switch their support to ted cruz based on whatever it is they care about.
the campaign feeling confident in its organization, ground game, yes, they may be trailing trump here right now, but they're convinced tomorrow night they could end up with a strong showing. >> all right. thanks. we know who they're calling, if you look at the three other candidates who were trying to get evangelical support in the republican side, carson's at ten, huckabee and santorum two each, that's 14 percentage point's add that one with cruz's 25 -- excuse me, 23, he's at 37. that's an important number because 37 was mike huckabee's winning number in 2008. we get what they're doing because if they don't get carson supporters, they don't win. thanks very much. katy tur, you're on the unusual trump campaign. it's an unusual way they're trying to get out the caucus vote. what have you learned and seen about what they're trying to do today to try to juice their numbers? >> well, what i think they're doing today is focusing on the evangelical vote. this is the final push.
as we've seen the most recent polling he seems to have moderates locked up. he needs to make a dent in the evangelical vote to push him over the edge against ted cruz. we saw him at church, he's with jerry falwell jr. at events today, now, as you're well aware, steve king country. steve king endorsed ted cruz donald trump is trying to eat away as much as he can with the evangelicals. for his ground game, though, we don't have much of a clue what's going on in the ground game. they've been tight-lipped. tried to go to the headquarters to find out what's going on. it doesn't seem like much is happening inside there. they haven't let us go out with volunteers, told us any details as to what they're doing. we did speak with a few voters yesterday at a rally to the west of here, and they told us that if they had been to more than one or two or three rallies, they're getting calls from the campaign to convince them to
caucus. others getting e-mailing, reminding them to caucus. there's a caucus finder. it's not a young ground game like we're seeing like ted cruz. will tomorrow pan out as the poll numbers have seem to suggest? will donald trump succeed in bucking the system completely or will this be one big story line that ends up going nowhere once voters get out and decide. >> and that's the unknown. it's amazing how many skeptics in the other campaigns are still there about donald trump after all of the months but i guess, tomorrow we'll find out for sure. katy tur, we'll be back. thank you. the democratic side, kristen welker covering the clinton campaign. they're in two parts of the state. clintons all over the state. hillary's in the western part of the state, bill's in the eastern part of the state. >> reporter: this is a family affair, it has been for the better part of the weekend.
secretary clinton bringing inner 4 top surrogate, former president bill clinton but daughter chelsea clinton and her granddaughter charlotte made an appearance on the trail today. they'll all be here at this event tonight. we're at a high school in des moines. officials in the clinton campaign tell me they are feeling a measured confidence at this hour, in part because of "the des moines register" poll which you showed she has a narrow lead. more importantly, they feel confident in their ground game. i visited a campaign office today. they are busy making a number of phone calls and developed an app, chuck, which will go out to a number of the precinct captains. look a caucus night calculator, allows them to keep track who is caucusing for secretary clinton at each of the locations. he it will allow them to it their job effectively. the sanders campaign telling me
tonight that they think the clinton does have a small edge but think they can win this if the young voters, first-time caucusgoers turn out in force. that's what barack obama did in 2008 when he won that group by a margin of 4-1. i was talking to likely caucusgoers today. they are anxious to finally weigh in. one caucusgoer telling me, this has been an incredibly fascinating year in olympics. >> technology thing, it's more than just finding out what's going on and how well they're doing. they're doing more with that. we'll talk about it in a few minutes with andrea. thanks very much. kasie hunt, let's get to sanders' world. something has changed in the last 72 hours, i would say, kasie, where we went from felt like sanders' momentum to clinton confidence. does the sanders campaign acknowledge this? >> reporter: privately, sure, chuck, there's a sense that to a
certain extent the reality is it's probably better to be hillary clinton right now than it is to be bernie sanders. but look, i think that there's still -- they're pint they're enjoying this and it's really not clear that their enthusiasm won't carry them over the finish line at this point. and i think, you know, i was over at their headquarters today, snacks strewn everywhere, volunteer presence is, quite frankly, remarkable. having spent a lot of time around campaigns that are trying to get out the vote for their guys, support for bernie sanders is extraordinarily organic and people are legitimately excited about him in a way that's pretty unusual, i think. i think you're seeing a little bit of this. behind me, several thousand, 8,000 people here with a really long line outside. and the candidate's not going to be here for over an hour.
i went canvassing, we knocked on a couple of doors, one woman, middle-aged, in her 40s, she hat a young child and never caucused before. we talk about the young, the college students, younger people who may be first-time caucusgoer. there's a universe of voters engaged in the process who don't fall into the category, who are people we normally think of as likely voters but who -- she said i never caucused before. i never felt the need to go out for anybody. she didn't caucus for obama or hillary in 2008. she's going to to go out for bernie sanders. i just think that this universe is still one that nobody has their head wrapped totally around and that's what the sanders campaign will say when you ask what's going to happen caucus night. >> kasie hunt in bernie world, feeling the bern. break this down. democratic side, it's interesting, talking about the app. this app is not about finding out what's going on.
this app, this technology, what they're up to -- >> moving votes. >> right. this is -- this is no longer -- they want to deny sanders as many delegates as they company martin o'malley has a new get out the vote machine, the hillary clinton campaign. explain. >> this is what obama did to hillary clinton eight years ago and it worked. and she's got that play book now. she's getting a lot of support from the people who devised that play book. they're in a caucus and see bernie sanders is about to win, they move some hillary supporters over to o'malley, he gets to the threshold of 15%, he gets viability, and it takes delegates away from sanders and gives her the margin. >> it is -- because hillary clinton, more people came to caucus for hillary clinton in 2008 than john edwards. john edwards won because obama people were strategic and this makes the caucus system on the democratic side so hard, it will be hard to follow for many
people on air, i'll be honest. >> got to watch you and me and everybody else. on the republican side it's basic will i a straw poll. >> right. >> firehouse primary. >> democratic side, people can move and. they've got technology now to track it, much more closely than obama did eight years ago. >> however, i had a longtime iowa democrat say a few minutes ago before air, a lot of rural iowa not wi-fi. not so wired and this is -- this might not work as efficiently. move to the republican side. hearing what cruz is doing. look, this is a -- is it a move of confidence or move of concern? >> i think it's a move of confidence. i think that -- i mean he's lost ground, trump had 15-point swing in the last month, all of the hits, canada, ethanol, everyb y everybody -- it hurt them. cruz built a ground game. he's been working it, the
99-county grassley -- >> finished it today. >> -- election. so you got to think that in looking at registration, and they can register up until the minute they walk in there, yeah, looking at registration, trends, "the des moines register" poll people don't see a ground swell of new voters in either party. >> right. >> that would be the bernie sanders and the trump voters so far. >> that's right. to go to trump, we just don't know. they don't -- are they not sharing what they're doing or is it a mirage, right. >> that is -- we're not -- talked to the cruz folks, they're so confident they're going to win. they said, you know what? if we picked the wrong universe and wins this, trump will be the nominee. we missed it, everybody missed it. >> i've been talking to party leaders, republican leaders in the senate, in particular, really worried about the senate going. and everyone, you know, look at john mccain, he's in a tough race. so many incumbent senators as
well as the party leaders around the country. you know, the establishment, which doesn't exist anymore and couldn't fight back. they're really worried, they are freaked. they are freaked by donald trump become the nominee and even more freaked by ted cruz. >> wild card here marco rubio. >> marco rubio. >> on the move or not, right. >> there is clearly concern in cruz world or they wouldn't be changing tv ad traffic in the last five days. >> right. >> but is it a surge or not? >> that, we don't know. i mean it's hard to quantify whether a strong third or weak third. all of this will play out on what happens in new hampshire. trump so far ahead in new hampshire. . rubio gets enough strength -- >> you know close to new hampshire numbers can move like that after what happens. >> look what happened last time with hillary clinton. >> a little tear. you never know. thank you very much. my thanks to our tremendous team
of correspondents on road, halle, katie, kristin, kasie. you have to have a "k" other than andrea and i. joined by barney frank. you can see clinton, by the way, speaking in sioux city. stay with msnbc. chris matthews and rachel maddow and brian williams host prime time coverage to preview the iowa caucuses 8:00 p.m. eastern tonight. keep it here. this bale of hay cannot be controlled. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it. chase for business. for your heart health, you think you're doing all you can ...but 9 out of 10 americans...
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bernie sanders running neck and neck with hillary clinton, three points behind in the latest "des moines register"/bloomberg poll. that's a different story from a year ago, sanders was at 5%. sat down with sanders for "meet the press" and asked about the state of the race. here's a bit of what he said. >> i think we have a real shot to win this, if there is a large voter turnout.
it's not just young people. it is working class people, it is middle class people, who are sick and tired of status quo politics, that's true in iowa, true in new hampshire, true all over this country. >> you don't think you're going to be a problem for house democrats who don't want to run on raising taxes? >> no. i think, in fact, hillary clinton will be the problem because i think our campaign is the campaign that's generating excitement and energy that will result in a high voter turnout. republicans win when voter turnout is low. democrats win when voter turnout is high. i think our campaign is raising the issue about a rigged economy, a corrupt campaign finance system. second clinton yesterday, just announced i suppose with pride, her super pac brought in $45 million. i don't have a super pac. our average contribution is 27 bucks. >> joining me now, former congressman and hillary clinton supporter, barney frank.
of course, one half of the wall street regulation known as dodd/frank. >> thank you. >> you come here every four years. >> 1984, berkeley pidell wanted me to come to his farm, a democrat to have city boys get m manure in our shoes. >> and. >> i did. >> fair enough. let me start with wall street reform. without the anger at wall street, bernie sanders would be galvanizing folks. part of it has to do with and the one issue, nobody went to jail. >> i agree. that's what strikes me. when you listen to senator sanders, he -- what strikes me is the degree to which he is attacking barack obama. you know -- >> you take that as an attack on barack obama. >> nobody went to jail. hillary clinton was secretary of state. you think secretaries of state prosecute people? barack obama has been the president during this period. financial reform bill that we passed -- and i think it's very
tough -- includes consumer protection bureau, the volcker bill, that's a financial community hate. barack obama signed those into law. when bernie sanders sort of dismisses health care, financial reform, higher taxes on the wealthy -- which he does by saying nothing changed -- literally it's a dismissal of the first years of the obama administration. as far as financial reform is concerned this notion that wall street regulates congress, they regulate the republicans. but that legislation that we passed in 2010, includes a wide range of things that wall street hated and now today, there are things that we would like to do more of. >> they're trying to weaken it. you know, kasie -- >> who? >> a lot of banks on wall street. >> can i ask you a question? >> spending a lot of money. >> it's a good, tough bill. if it was as weak as bernie sanders implicitly accuses it to
be, why are they spending so much month ty to try to change it? if barack obama as president has been able to defend that and hillary clinton or any other democratic president would defend it. the point is, it is true they are trying to weaken it. that is a testimony how tough it was. met life is suing because they're upset being regulated. ge sold off its financial activities because of this. >> what is left that needs to be done, in your opinion? i mean when you look at legislation that you and chris dodd wrote, this wonderful book how this was put together. >> by robert kaiser, great book. >> thank you. how few of members -- colleagues truly understood the scope -- >> by the way -- >> that's part of the problem, makes it harder to the legislative branch. what needs to be done. >> let me say, it was very hard. we worked very hard. chris had to votes to spare in the senate. weakened, i'll give you one thing, to get the bill through in the senate originally, we
were going to take $20 billion the congressional budget office told us it would cost to administer the bill and assess to large banks. three republican votes for, brown, collins, snow said it's going to far. we're not going to make them to pay for. we had to put it on the taxpayers. i'd like to put on them. we did a lot but we weren't able to go further. secondly a lot of power in the administration of that that hasn't yet beened aministered that could be. you want to break up banks? there's power to say if a bank gets too big, it can be broken up. five guys were acquitted by a jury in england for rigging the long done interbank rate. it was hard to nail some of the people because laws were so lax, and some of what they didn't wasn't illegal --
>> that's the president's defense when asked this question. >> we changed that. now starting to do prosecutions. the courts have been a problem with that. the circuit court in the district of columbia was. there is more to be done both in using the powers that are there making them pay for it, in taxing hedge fund carried interests -- >> you're a guy that likes to be a deal maker, when you see the winds are blowing in one direction and the other party, you used to be able to do some things together with republicans. you've got a guy like donald trump who is talking tough about wall street. what would you be able to do with republicans that are into this anti-wall street fervor. >> two things, first i was able to deal with alan simpson or people like that or henry paulson. the republican party, i wrote to the point nobody could do anything with them because they've been taken over by the right wing. maybe that will weaken -- >> it's interesting. anti-wall street rhetoric among
the conservative candidates -- >> can i announce an obituary on the show. >> okay. >> 1896, 2016, the argument that worrying about inequality is class warfare died this year. i can -- karl rove talked about the birth in mchenry campaign. you're right. this argument that worrying about distribution as class warfare ended. as far as donald trump, i don't think he's a serious he person. if there were other members of congress maybe could do something. i tried to hard to work with the republicans who said they agreed with some of this but in the end, we were able to get three republican votes in the senate and two in the house, for anything to regulate them. bernie sanders, we can do a lot more than that, that's what's frustrating. >> there you go. mckinley to 2016. >> seriously. that's it. >> you get history with barney frank. good to see you. coming up, check in on the republican race.
donald trump is speaking at the sioux city convention center. hillary clinton. in the far from each other. we'll be right back. inni fact we'll listen in. >> i heard you tell bill o'reilly the other night that you voted for mccain and romney -- >> i was on the committee. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and university partnerships, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in utica, where a new kind of workforce is being trained. and in albany, the nanotechnology capital of the world. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov 80% but up to 90% fall short in getting key nutrients from food alone. let's do more. add one a day women's 50+ complete multivitamin.
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found out about clyde frazier jr., operated harlem hoops basketball tournament he got killed in 9/11 attacks in the us. mr. trump tracked down his father, found him, gave the money keep the tournament going. >> dipping in here. a trump event. different than that what you see, jerry fall well jr. interviewing him on stage. let's listen to the back and forth. >> he found ways to -- for his hotels to buy supplies and to -- he paid for the cheese and the bread at local dominos to keep it open and just little things like that. [ applause ]
after he visited liberty, i told him about another christian ministry in other state that needed help. i learned he had donated $100,000 to the ministry. a couple helped him on the side of the road, limousine broke down on a deserted highway and paid off the couple's mortgage. so, the other night, the other night when all of the other candidates -- [ applause ] -- the other night when all of the other candidates were sparring on the stage, he decided to hold an event to raise money for veterans. he raised $6 million for our veterans. [ applause ] and right now we're going to make this is the third dispersement to a local charity. >> that's great. >> this is for the sioux land
soldiers and it's $100,000. [ cheers and applause ] . >> as you can see, nothing is usual when it comes to donald trump. it is the unusual. there they are, sending some money from the fund-raiser that he had to compete against the debate last thursday that he decided not to attend. a much different way of closing out his iowa caucus campaign. we le see if it works. a group of first-time caucusgoers right here at the table about what's motivating them. why hear from pundits when you can hear from actual voter. the top two candidates, lut ran church of hope. ted cruz littened to a sermon
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year? >> i can't. have i to work that night but i have caucused before. i love caucus. who you supporting. >> the donald. >> okay. if it wasn't donald, it would be the bernie. >> there you go. i found a person undecided between sanders and cruz. take that. that was msnbc's jacob out with a bernie sanders. not everyone iowans divided between two polar opposites but many caucusgoers backing trump
or sanders have similar rationals and many it's the first time they've decided to caucus. a lot of the language you hear from sanders supporter and trumper to trumper totrump er to supporters could work with the other candidate. >> bernie, of course. i don't know everybody he gives me some hope that you know there's young people out here that are falling behind, yeah, we're the senior citizens and you know, i'm comfortable, i live in iowa and it's good. but i think i've got grandkids, 11, and i want them to have a future, too be and i think he's looking at the future. i think we're looking at head. >> is there one thing in washington that you think, only donald trump can deal with this? >> i think he might inspire people to be more honest and also to try and make good decisions with the information out there in the world. >> i'm joined right here at the table with three first-time caucusgoers. a backer of bernie sanders, both
supporting donald trump. welcome to all of you. i get complaints, i don't want to hear from political pundits i want to hear from actual voters. here we go. first time you've caucused. how long have you lived in iowa. >> i was born in storm lake and lived in other states but came back to des moines about ten years ago. >> first time you've decided to caucus. >> it is. it's the very first time. i've -- i don't know. i'm inspired this time by trump. i mean, my son is in the army, he's on his third deployment. i am so impressed with what trump has to say about our veterans. you know, beef up the facilities that are available to them, put in satellites in regular hospitals so they don't have to travel so far, my father has to travel from storm lake to ft.
dodge to the veterans hospital, and he's 88. and i drove him the last time. >> especially in the rural areas it is very tough with the v.a. situation. joe, how long have you been in iowa. >> 1997. >> first time you decided to caucus. >> that's right. >> what about trump? finally i'm going to show up to this crazy event? >> i like his take no hostages attitude. he's straightforward. as a businessman, i think he would really help the economic state of our nation right now. i really think it takes a man with that background. he's also got his hands dirty. used to work construction, can relate to the blue collar worker. i think he can touch everybody in the united states and that's why i'm going to caucus for him. i mean i'm excited. i'm tired of the establishment. i think he brings fresh blood.
>> tire of the establishment, hear that from sanders supporters. too, how long have you lived in iowa? >> for about ten years now. before that, washington state. >> okay. and decided this time to caucus? >> well, actually, that's because of my age. >> fair enough. >> so you fit the characteristic that we assume first-time caucusgoer for sanders. >> perfect. the college student that is inspired by bernie sanders. as a matter of fact, i was talking to them before this event and you know, that's one of the things we both share, we're very enthusiastic about the candidates because both seem to represent something new, something past this corrupt political structure we've had so far. bernie and trump i suppose have that nonestablishment vibe. inspiring to listen to. personally aileen into bernie sanders direct because of -- >> all right. there's been a skepticism, right. are you guys going to go?
do you know your caucus location. >> i do. >> do you know where yours is. >> i do. >> yes. >> how muff has the trump campaign contacted you? >> they have not contacted me at all. >> okay. yourself? >> my goodness, ever since thursday, maybe it was wednesday, but like five times. >> okay. >> have you gone to a trump event. >> no. >> you hadn't but signed up? >> no. >> somehow they found you. >> yes. >> have you gone to trump events. >> no, just watching on msnbc how about you? >> i've known him -- i found him since 2015. but yeah, they've been in contact with me ever since i went to a couple of -- yeah a couple of the rallies. they've been making sure that we've been getting out there. >> you signed up. when you went to the first rally gave them contact info. >> they've been contacting me. even before that, i got -- was
getting e-mails from the clinton campaign. >> i've got to ask, second choice, if it weren't for trump, would you be caucusing? >> no. >> interesting. if it weren't for trump, would you be caucusing? >> no, i wouldn't. >> you would? >> i would, yes. more than likely for hillary clinton because she's the progressive candidate. although reluctantly so. >> do you have a second choice? if you lad to pick one? >> i do. if donald trump doesn't get the nomination, i'm going to jump ship and go for bernie. >> oh, how about that? all right. there you go. >> oh my. >> what about yourself? >> i'm not going to say. >> okay. i'm sorry. >> fair enough. you don't have to. this is -- i really appreciate it. good to hear from real voters. we all think we know what you think. people get to see what you think. >> exactly. >> thanks for being great hosts. love coming to iowa. enjoy the caucuses. let's hope it's not too snowy,
especially your candidates, they don't want a lot of snow. >> no, they don't. >> i want to tell you right now, besides the political storm that's hit iowa there a real one on the way. there's a blizzard watch that's in effect and it starts monday night for much of iowa, from west to east. that's where it starts, eastern iowa might be okay. it's democratic territory. where we are in des moines, we'll see, it's coming. heavy stuff isn't supposed to get here until after acaucuses but light snow in southern and western iowa. the snow could reek havoc on candidates and trying to get from iowa to new hampshire. you know what, we'll survive. after the break, congressman steve king. also hear from rubio backer, congressman shawn duffy from wisconsin. here is marco rubio holding a rally at st. ambrose university in davenport in eastern iowa.
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do conservatives come together? in past cycles what washington always wanted is to splinter and divide conservatives if that happens. >> worried about that. >> um always worried about it. the only way i know how to run, two ways to run, scared and unoppos unopposed. only way i know how to run is scared. we're going to run hard every minute. >> that was ted cruz speaking to me this morning. he says he's in it for the long haul, 24 hours to go before the caucus. he's facing criticism from a
mailer his campaign sent out that looks like some official voting violation notice. cruz says he want iowans to come out and vote. joining me now, ted cruz supporter, maybe the most important supporter in iowa, congressman steve king. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> quickly, the mailer, was that a mistake? >> well, it's something that's been used in many states. it's a fairly typical operation. i'd be happy it's not out there to be discussed. marco rubio has a piece out there almost identical to the one that ted cruz has out. does that work, this idea of scaring people into like you haven't been a good voter, better show up? >> some people think it works, and i think here in iowa we'd rather be encouraged. >> you don't like the negative vibe. >> no, i don't like the name-calling out of the trump campaign, knocking heads in this way. we should have a positive way. >> let's talk about what's going on with sort of he's
consolidating conservatives but doesn't have them all. and the difference between winning and losing could be 14% sitting with ben carson, rick santorum, mike huckabee. >> i've said to them, i've sent a message and i think it's being received pretty well, we fought this thing for a long time. 17 terrific candidates for president. but right now it's a binary decision between the voters. if you want a full spectrum christian conservative nominated and supporting carson, huckabee, santorum, what you should do -- or rubio -- send them a nang-you card, thank them for presenting themselves as a candidate but go to caucus for cruz because if you don't caucus for cruz you're voting for trump. >> you believe if trump wins iowa, are you one of those, senator cruz was caught on the christian broadcasting video that said he meet be unstoppa e unstoppable. you buy that? if trump wins new hampshire, game over? >> he might be unstoppable.
any candidate could be unstoppable coming out of here. ted cruz could be unstoppable coming out of iowa. there will be a fight going forward here and my commitment is, i want a full spectrum spec constitutional conservative. regardless of who wins on monday night i think it's going to be a very close race. i think cruz pulls it out in a very close race and i think cruz is a distant third. >> do you think given that the governor himself has been so critical and vice versa, the senator throu senator threw it right back at him. >> this is one of those times that the governor and i have a pretty good disagreement. we will see on caucus night, but they have been putting misinformation out on the ethanol issue and misrepresenting ted cruz's record. he has authored a record that phases down over the five years and it was big oil money that
came against cruz when he wan for the senate and all he wants is a level playing field. he wants to end the subsidies for big oil. >> he's worried that it's going to hurt the economy here in iowa. >> it is in part because of the ethanol industry, but also, ted cruz has put forward a proposal. he's the only presidential candidate that has a proposal for the long-term viability and the growth in the industry and he's put that together with dave vand ir grin and with some of my counsel on that as well so eliminate the 10% to 15% blend wall and open this up to an e-35 and that means you could triple the ethanol we would sell. the conservative estimate is up to about 24 billion gallons. that's an offer that improves the future and we can start building ethanol plants again. it's been frozen for a long time. >> i can't believe how conversant all of us are becoming in the ethanol industry.
i'm going to leave it there. thanks for coming on. >> thank you. let's turn now to marco rubio and on meet the press this morning he talked about being the target of a lot love attacks. >> a lot of this is segmented right now. ted cruz has 10,000 volunteers. he got every endorsement that he wanted so we always knew that but we feel really good about the progress that we're making. we have taken on more negative attacks than any other candidate combined. jeb bush's superpack has spent a third of its money attacking me. we'll continue to keep growing. >> joining me now is wisconsin congressman dufffey. welcome, sir. >> thanks for having me on. >> all right. a little worried there. maybe we have a delay. let me start with why are you with rubio and not a ted cruz, not a donald trump? why rubio? >> first off, i think we need a
candidate who can touch the hearts and the souls of the american people. someone who can inspire the country. and if you look at marco rubio's story and the way he communicates about america i think he's what we need right now in this very deviseive environment. it's hard to unify and be successful to come up with policies that can save america. you see so many people in congress, you might scratch your head and go why do so many people not like ted cruz? he's built his career on bashing conservatives and really we are tired of that and we're looking at marco who's a conservative and who can lead and bring the country together. >> but as you know, not being liked in washington has been an asset for senator cruz. >> no, it has. but i think it's based on lies. i mean, a lot of the stuff that
senator cruz puts out there is what's popular in this moment, but if you look at his history, you know, he comes out as being an outsider but he's an ivy league educated guy. he clerked for the supreme court. he gets his loans from big wall street banks. he's far from an outsider. he's a true insider, so what i'm looking for is someone who can inspire the country, get us back to our core footings, but i want a candidate that can beat hillary clinton or bernie sanders. and ted cruz might get the conservative out but will he get the independent out that he needs to win? i think the guy that can win the election is marco rubio. >> this selectability argument it's tough to make in the early states. voters are conditioned to be idealistic whether it's on the left or the right. >> no, the -- they really are, but that's why i think if you look at the last week when really iowans have been paying
attention to the candidates and making decisions, that's why you've seen this movement that rubio has had. i don't know if you want to call it a surge, but we have seen momentum on this side and cruz has set this bar so high saying i'm going to win and if he doesn't he can come out of iowa hobbled or i think rubio with his message in the last debate, how well he did and also talking about foreign policy and how we're going to protect america and get the world back in order with strong american leadership, i think that's resonated with people so i think it sets him up well as we go to new hampshire and south carolina and rubio has a 15-state strategy. >> where does he win, though? i get it, but where does he win? he's got to win. >> right. so i think -- i think he'll come in second or even first in new hampshire, but i think south carolina is a place that he can win. it's a message that resonates down there. he's got a guy like trey gowdy,
a well known faithful conservative that has come out for rubio because he sees the leadership capability that marco has and he knows we need a candidate that can beat hillary and south carolina and an endorsement like trey gowdy i think goes a long way as we play in a couple of weeks down there. >> all right. republican from wisconsin, i know you guys are working on a monday tomorrow i hear, for votes. all thanks to a little snow makeup days. anyway, thank you very much. we're only just beginning when it comes to our caucus eve coverage. it may be sunday night but we've got the big guns coming out as well. chris matthews, bryan williams, pick up more special coverage previewing what has been a hum dinger of an iowa caucus. close races in both places. we've got all the candidates right now doing events.
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or perhaps it's time to seize the day. don't just see opportunity, seize it! (applause) . hello and good evening. happy iowa eve. you're looking at a beautiful shot of the iowa state capitol there. i'm rachel maddow excited to be alongside my friend brian williams. just 24 hours to go now. >> 24 hours indeed until the doors close in caucuses across iowa. caucuses will get underway and then we'll start the process of tallying up and analyzing the choices, the selections of really what are the first voter to participate in the 16
presidential election process. it all starts in iowa. we're at this hour the leading candidates are either speaking right now or are about to speak. that's donald trump live on the right, a sanders event and a rubio event on the left. some of them are on route to finishing their final rallies of the evening. the candidates at the top of the pack also have plans to join us this evening. we intend to talk to senator bernie sanders along the way, former secretary of state hillary clinton and donald trump, a busy night ahead. now, as for where the candidates stand in these final hours before the voting starts, the final poll from what's considered the paper of record in iowa, the des moines register, donald trump leading ted cruz by 5 points, 28-23, but remember the margin of error is 4 points. basically a statistical dead heat. >> and on the democratic side it's even closer than that. in the final deplos moines regir
poll hillary clinton leads bernie sanders by only 3 points. 45 to 42% which again is within the margin of error so it is basically a tie. >> a very tight race on both sides. let's begin here with our colleague chris matthews. he's at our election head quarters in des moines. what does it feel like there which is actually an important question with 24 hour to go? and what do you think iowa's role will be in this cycle? sometimes they've been an incredible predictor, sometimes the result has been completely irrelevant to the race for president. >> well, i have to start by saying i feel butterflies out here in the locker room. it's a very strange time to try to be a pun dent or a journalist in politics because we're into strange territory. the polling as you just pointed out shows donald trump leading in iowa. think about that. this is the iowa republican
caucus that takes santorum a couple of times ago, that picked santorum, they picked mike muck bee and a -- huckabay the time before that. and this is a poll about to select a man with three wives in his lifetime, a casino operator, a hot shot from the big apple, from new york city. it's an extraordinary shift in the tectonic plates of the republican party and all i can say is, you can't go by the man's resume to understand what's going on out here. what you have to look at is the voter out here. and the voters like many voters in the country, especially on the republican inside are angry. they have a sense of betrayal and you may not like these words, but it's illegal immigration. they don't like that. they don't like the fact they've lost jobs to overseas trade. they don't like these wars we've been involved in. that includes republicans. they don't like the war in iraq
out here and donald trump has come along and said, i'm going to make america great again. that seems to be the big surprise that he can win tomorrow. on the other side, the democratic party's become aggressively populist. they have no problem calling themselves socialists. bernie sanders has moved into that brilliantly i must say with a very, very emotional appeal to voters on the ground of you can't pay your student loans, you shouldn't have student loans. it should be free. it should be social security benefits should be way higher than they are and health care should be a right from birth to death and so he's made an incredible appeal. hillary clinton has tried to hold the left out sere and again, i go to the poll. this incredible poll that came out the other day. it is making me nervous because i think a lot of the people are going to react to the poll. it's not a good sign because it's going to i think shake
things up out here so we'll see if the poll itself makes people jittery. back to you and rachel. >> things are indeed on the move with 24 hours to go in iowa. chris, thanks. over to katy we go. she is at a donald trump event in sioux city. events like the one you just witnessed there, unconventional, kind of an evening with donald trump answering questions and jerry falwell jr. on the stage. >> reporter: after a question and answer session. i think jerry falwell jr. did a lot to soften trump's image making him sound more reasonable. jerry falwell sounding more reasonable. falwell also listed all the individuals that trump has given to over the years, a number of them at least which culminated into a $100,000 check for soldiers that was presented to them on stage.
one of those big checks that was from the money raised from the debate no-show. from the fund raiser he's held for veterans. so what he's been doing today is pushing the evangelical vote. he went to church this morning. at two events today. he's at steve king country here. he's trying to eke away any support he can from ted cruz. right now the polls are showing he's doing so well with moderates. he seem to have the moderates locked up. what he needs to do is get as much of the evangelical support as he can. take a little bit more from ted cruz and the campaign believes that will be what puts him over the edge here. this is if you believe the poll numbers and there's a lot of people questioning the poll b numbers. he's bumped the convention. he's bumped all the rules. he's doing things his way and we'll find out in just about a day whether or not that worked.
whether his ground game which we don't know that much about could match up to ted cruz who has been told -- or we've been told, we've seen excuse me, have quite a formidable ground game here in iowa. >> thanks, katy. fascinating what she was just saying about what we know and what we don't know about the ground games of these campaigns. it's easy to extrapolate about how they're campaigning nationally, from their political experience, but iowa is its own thing and really nobody knows how these ground games are going to work in iowa until they start working, which will be 7 minutes less than 24 hours from now. joining us now is our political correspondent who's at a bernie sanders rally in des moines. how big an event is this for bernie sanders and how much energy are you seeing out there for him these days? >> reporter: rachel, i've been with bernie sanders the last week or so on the campaign trail and i have to tell you, the energy that people have been talking about is very organic and is very well. there are 1,000 plus people here
in this gym outside of des moines waiting for senator sanders. last night i was with him out in iowa city, the home of the university of iowa where upwards of 3, 4,000 students showed up to see him talk and vampire weekend play, they actually sang this land is your land together that peter paul and mary as many people know it, classic, with you know, the hipster band of the moment. it's what you would expect from that perspective. the question, of course, for them is just whether or not their people are actually going to show up. i went canvassing today with a couple of high school students that had come down from minneapolis. also the type of person that's been typically excited by bernie sanders, they were knocking on doors and we knocked on one door, a woman in middle age, not the sanders supporter that we've talked about and she said that
she was getting engaged in the caucus process for the first time. she didn't cause cuss in 2008 but she's going to go out there because of the insecurities a lot of americans are feeling. she was talking about particularly about social security. they know what the universe looks like and that's what they're going to be doing tomorrow is talking to a sanders' aide and she said we'll be on the phone with our supporters and they feel like they should know where or not those people are coming out and whether or not this is going to be a good night for him tomorrow. >> thank you. that of course is going to be absolutely key figuring out if these people who have never been to a caucus before and say they plan to go, whether they actually get themselves through the door. that's going to be a huge issue for the sanders' campaign and also the democratic side and also the trump campaign on the republican side. hillary clinton is going to be holding a rally in des moines shortly along with her husband bill clinton and her daughter
chelsea. what kind of event is this going to be? how unusual is it for all three of them to be doing the same event together? >> reporter: well, it's sort of been all hands on deck for these past 48 hours, but you're absolutely right. they rolled this out at the end of the campaign. charlotte, her granddaughter was at an event earlier today so it's all hands on deck in the clinton family, but look, i talked to a clinton campaign official earlier today who says that she's energized and within the campaign there's a sense of measured optimism. that poll that you mentioned, the des moines register poll, clinton's slight lead is welcome news. they have expected this race to be close. it is going to be close. they expect tomorrow night to be close as well. they say they have confidence in their ground game, what you all have been talking about, why? well, because in part it's modelled after president obama's ground game from 2008, then senator barack obama, they say
they've done 120,000 doorknobs just this week. i visited one of their campaign headquarters, they were busy working the phone. they were also busy putting new technology to use. one new app that they will be deploying tomorrow night, it's like a caucus night calculator, it's going to help the precinct captains tabulate how many caucus goers secretary clinton has and also gives them tips for how to generate more support throughout the night so they are putting that type of technology to use. secretary clinton will be here as you mentioned with her whole family. she'll be making her final pitch which in large part is that she has the experience. of course, this is a campaign that's favored the outsider so the question is, will that be enough to take her over the finish line? it all comes down to turnout. if a lot of younger voters, those first-time caucus voters, if they turn out in force, bernie sanders could win. that's the big question mark. i've been out talking to likely caucus goers as well. a lot of them saying they're
excited to get out there for the very first time, but some of them saying they're not sure exactly how they're going to get there or how they're going the fit it into their schedule. there is broad agreement, everyone here in iowa seems ready to finally have a say. i'll toss it back to you. >> the only note of caution i've heard all day about the app is, don't expect widespread wifi in some of rural iowa at all of these caucuses, because it's just not going to happen especially the way it was in silicon valley where it was invented. now to the cruz campaign. correspondent halley jackson. when do the people get allowed inside the auditorium? >> reporter: yeah, we're not the only ones here i promise. or at least we probably won't be
in two hours when the senator arrives and we expect this place to be packed. way want to show you behind the scenes of what happens. this is the stuff that you don't necessarily see, getting the projectors ready, et cetera. the senator will be arriving here. the speech tonight, part of his closing argument to try to convince people that they should pick him. cruz is the second choice for a lot of people who might support a car son or a mike huckabay or a rick santorum and to caucus for cruz. how are they doing that? they've got volunteers as we speak tonight even, 24 hours before the caucuses making phone calls. these phone calls are lasting an average of 17 minutes so they're longer than the typical get out to vote call and that's because the callers know what issues those people care about and they have a script that is allowing them to talk to people in a way that hopefully will resonate with them and will convince them to change their mind and get out
there and caucus for ted cruz. so obviously turnout is going to be a major factor. the other thing is the energy you're feeling and the confidence level of the campaign. we'll bring you behind the scenes here. hopefully we're not in our way. i'll let our cameraman walk over and show the audio getting ready. a lot of the things is a very good production value. he plays videos, he gets the crowd excited and amps them up before the senator takes the stage. one thing that we've talked about often is the confidence of the campaign. i can tell you, though, there does seem to be a sense and what we've seen in their ads that have come out lately of a concern about marco rubio potentially tletdenning with a dark horse, if not second place surprise and at least getting close enough and a campaign aide telling me moments ago that imitation is the best form of flattery. this idea that marco rubio has been talking more and more about things ted cruz talks about on the campaign trail. for example, faith, for example,
talking about what he would do in his first day in office. so it's interesting to watch the battle not just between trump and cruz. >> on the fly about what's about to be a cruz rally. >> i'm surprised that he's doing a 10:15 rally after all the events he's done. the importance of iowa is who it gives momentum to. that's the big issue. right? who's going to win? who is this going to help win? the more direct and conclusive immediate question about iowa, though, especially in a republican field this large this year, is actually the question of who loses there? who has the most to lose if they underperform in iowa? it's not as happy a story, but it is really important this time of year and joining us now, who is iowa make or break this year?
>> that is the question. we'll start on the democratic side and i think the answer here is bernie sanders and to explain why, i think we start by fast forwarding a couple weeks. take a look here. the third major contest on the democratic side. that's going to be south carolina and the most recent poll has bernie sanders down by 40 points in south carolina. that's points to a major weakness to the sanders' campaign. they have failed to attract significant african american support. south carolina is the first state where you'll have a major african american presence voting. it's the first of many states that will have african american presence. the second major obstacle he already faces tonight is he is already a couple hundred delegates behind hillary clinton. the super delegates, the governors, the members of congress, hillary clinton has locked down a couple hundred of them. bernie sanders essentially zero.
so to overcome the opposition he faces with black voters, the theory is you need to shock the world. you need to do something so major that it shakes up everybody's assumptions about hillary clinton's strength and her inevident ability. and the latest poll has him three points behind. and the good news beyond that for sanders is not only is he close in iowa, he is already significantly ahead in new hampshi hampshire. who would have believed that six months ago, a year ago? if you can put together that one-two punch, you can win iowa, new hampshire, that will be so shocking, so startling it will throw into question all those hillary clinton strengths. so probably more important to bernie sanders to get that win tomorrow night and if you look at the republican side, it's ted cruz. ted cruz has the most to lose
tomorrow night because again, his strategy rests more than any other candidate on cornering the market on evangelical voters. they are more than 60% of the voting pool on the republican side in iowa. they're not so much a presence in new hampshire, but they are in south carolina. and the cruz theory on this thing, the cruz strategy is, you corner the market on evangelicals in iowa, you win iowa. you don't have to win new hampshire, but then you go to south carolina and you win there. then you sweep across the south. it's something you take, for instance, mike huckabee who won the caucuses in 2008. when he got to south carolina he fell short. cruz wants to do better than huckabee did, but to start that you've got to win iowa. if you are trying to corner the market and you spend a year of your life in iya and you go to meet with every pastor you can possibly go to and you lose the state to donald trump, does not speak well to your chances of carrying south carolina a few weeks from now. >> all right. the numbers are absolutely
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welcome back on this nonfootball sunday night, the eve of the iowa caucuses. we started the broad kags with chris matthews at our election headquarters in iowa. we'll head back to chris who had a chance to talk to donald trump. >> and of course you want to put the people to sleep tonight thinking dreams of your success and your advantage for them so here's donald trump making what i think is a closer and the
closer is negative. he's going after the guy who's challinged him all along the way here. he nails him. he even says he's ineligible to be running for president. >> the numbers look good in the poll but they're about five points ahead now. are you going to win? >> i hope i'm going to win. it's an election. who knows? we have a tremendous amount of relationship with the people of iowa. we have -- i've been all over the state. i've been here numerous times, many times, and we've had tremendous rallies. i just got back from two very big rallies. we had an endorsement from jerry falwell, jr. and the endorsement was incredible from liberty university. he knows every candidate and he endorsed donald trump and you know, we have so many other endorsements. sarah palin, even sheriff joe, no if you like that one, but i like it because we're -- >> i know who he is. >> we're very firm on illegal immigration but we've had tremendous endorsements and the
relationship with the people of iowa has been fantastic. >> do you think it's morally wrong for someone to be elected president who comes from some other country? >> well, what are you getting at are you talking about -- are you talking about ted cruz? >> i'm talking about ted cruz. >> are you talking about ted cruz. >> yes. >> because he was born in canada? he was born in canada. i just think if you look at your constitutional scholars, chris, numerous of them have now come out and said he's not allowed to be president. i guess he can run, but he can't be president and it's a real question mark. it's a real problem that he's got. he's got a lot of problems. he didn't file in financial disclosure goldmann s sachs and city bank loans, but he was a canadian citizen until 15 months ago jointly with the united states i guess, but he was a canadian citizen. here's a united states senator, he's a canadian citizen and he
only disputed that 15 months ago and terminated it and he said amazingly to me, he didn't know he was a canadian citizen. he was born in canada. he lived there for an extended period of time and now he's running and according to great constitutional lawyers he's not allowed to serve as president. >> let's talk about an immediate problem and that's a last minute mailer by the cruz campaign to scare voters into showing up. it's made to look like an official government document declaring a voting violation for not caucusing in prior elections. iowa secretary of state has slammed the mayor accusing citizens of iowa in violation saying it's false representation of an official act. to repeat that -- >> i've never heard of it before. i guess it's something that has been done. it's not allowed to be done. a couple of people that are serious professionals like i'm sure yourself, you may have seen that, i think -- chris, i think you've seen it all.
have you ever seen anything like this? >> no, i've never heard of this, baby. i've heard of some of this stuff on social security organizations that say official document, but i've never heard this particular thing. >> i think it's one of the most disgraceful things that i've seen in politics. what you're saying the violation and then they're giving you x for your voting records they're saying immediately come and vote. i think it's one of the most horrible things that i've seen in politics and i've seen pretty bad stuff just like you have and this just came and now as you know, he's under investigation by the attorney general or whomever in iowa. i think what he did to do that -- he knew about it. you know, it's interesting. in canada he said he didn't know he was a canadian citizen. then he said he didn't know they didn't file his loan that goldman sachs and city bank because he wanted to be robin hood. this guy is a lying guy. he's hated by everybody.
he's a guy that can't even get the endorsement from the very good governor of texas. your sitting governor of texas. can't get the endorsement from one of his colleagues in the senate. not one senator is endorsing him and he works with them on a daily basis when he shows up to work. i mean, this ted cruz is terrible. and he says things about me in ads that are so untrue it's unbelievable. it's unbelievable. he takes an ad and says things that are absolutely unbelievably untrue and other than i have a little bit of a megaphone more so than other people they wouldn't know what the truth is. but when he did this violation called voting violation, i guess that's what you're talking about i don't think i've ever seen anything like that in politics so bad. >> let's talk about the new york times judgment today. they've endorsed hillary clinton. they've endorsed john kasich. did that surprise you? >> no, not really. look, you know, the new york times is the new york times and they -- it really doesn't -- i
don't think it will have any impact at all on the race. when the new york times endorses a republican i don't think it's going to have any impact whatsoever on the race. he's not doing so well. it's a guy i've gotten to like, but i looked at the new poll that just came out in iowa, the whole -- the whole thing just came out. i guess i read it on blockberg where i'm readileading the des s register and i'm doing very well with evangelicals, doing very well in the poll. now let's see what happens because as you know, the only poll that matters is the one tomorrow. but so i don't even talk about it. but the poll did just come out and i know kasich is not at the top of that poll and he's very close to the bottom of the poll. >> well, robert costa joins me now. did you notice when i asked him do you think there's morally wrong about someone from another country being elected of the
united states. he didn't know whether i was talking about president obama or ted cruz. i said let's talk about ted cruz. a lying guy. that's a strong statement. >> he sees the nomination on the horizon and he wants to suffocate cruz's candidacy before it can ever get out of iowa with a bounce. he thinks he can win new hampshire. >> how much does he have to beat him by to knock him out? >> probably 5 or 10 points but it becomes a two-man race unless rubio can get something above 15. >> all right. back to you, rachel, in new york. >> we'll have more tonight in our special coverage in the leadup to the iowa caucuses. we've got interviews with bernie sanders and hillary clinton. lots more to come. stay with us. ibs-d. you know the symptoms when they start. abdominal pain. urgent diarrhea. now there's prescription xifaxan.
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broadcast. full disclosure, rachel and i have shared a full observation today. the weather tonight and tomorrow. we have a blizzard watch in effect for much of the state of iowa. as this graphic shows, the first precipitation as early as 3:00 p.m. on the day of the vote is going to come in, not far from omaha nebraska in the southwest corner of iowa moving southwest to northeast. des moines is going to get all the precipitation they want. it's going to start as rain in most places, switch over to snow, and there could be icing. why are we doing weather on the eve of the iowa caucuses? because it's awfully important. especially for shall we say older voters like me. they have to really make up their minds to leaf the house, get in the car and some of this precipitation is going to be taking place in a critical area of the state at 7:00 p.m. folks are going to be worried when i get back in the car, what
are the conditions going to be like driving home? beth weather could be a big factor. >> if they are going to worry about significant snow in parts of iowa, that is late, but we're still 24 hours out. if that shifts earlier or if a wintry mix starts earlier, it may affect whether they get out on the roads. >> i move to new england about 15 years ago and i have to say that about 15 times a year. well done. >> for both democrats and republicans, whether or not with standing the party really starts tonight at 7:00 local time. 8:00 eastern time. that's when the doors will close at nearly 2,000 caucus sites across the state. but then, once the doors are closed and you're in there, it's a very different experience depending on whether you're caucusing as a democrat or a republican. as a republican it's simple. you get in there, they start, a representative for each of the republican candidates makes a
speech, basically trying to sell you on the idea of their candidate, then once all the speeches are over, that's it. they vote. republicans hold a secret ballot vote. you basically fill out a slip of paper and then drop your ballot into a bucket or a basket or something up front. caucus officials then count up all those ballots. they announce the final tally to the caucus and then they report those back to the iowa republican party headquarters. basically very straightforward. in terms of the democratic side forget everything i told you. on the democratic side it's not hard, but it's different. first of all, there's no secret ballot. instead, once the door is closed on the democratic side and the process starts up, people have to get up and physically move themselves into a corner of the room that's designated for each candidate, plus one area that's designated for uncommitted voters. then the next thing that happens is what they call a viability test. so if a particular candidate
doesn't have enough support, if a candidate doesn't have support from 15% of the caucus goers at a given site, that candidate is deemed not viable, which of course is a very sad moment for supporters of that candidate. then though, it's a mad scramble for the other campaigns to try to win over those voters, to try to convince them to come over into a different corner of the room. so if you are a supporter of a nonviable candidate or if you're an uncommitted voter at an iowa democratic caucus tomorrow, one thing you move forward to, you will be flattered, you're about to get more attention than the last parking spot at the mall on christmas eve. once all of the supporters of nonviable candidates have been reallocated to other groups that have successfully wooed them, then the democrats will figure out who won that caucus and i kid you not, that part of it is determined by this mathematical formula. the number of supporters in each
corner of the room multiplied by the total number of delegates and then that number is divided by the total number of caucus goers in attendance at that site. i swear this is how they do it. republicans do a straight up secret ballot. they count the voters there. democrats do a move to the corner, then put the whole thing through a giant math equation. in 1972 and 1976, uncommitted actually won the caucuses on the democratic side. the iowa caucuses can be really, really strange, but that is part of why it is always so much fun to watch and so much fun to cover. >> we'll go over this all over again tomorrow night because it really is strange. i was just giving props to vermont public radio for having done all of this with legos in a web video that came out earlier this week. so we'll take another break. when we come back, our conversation with bernie sanders from the campaign trail. its sleek design... is mold-breaking.
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and my staff incredible hospitality and warmness and we appreciate it very much. this is a beautiful, beautiful state and it's been an honor to have the opportunity to campaign in it. the other thing i want to say about the people of iowa and i've been deeply impressed by this. i think iowans understand that they have a very unique role to play in the presidential
process. and i believe that they take that role very, very seriously. and i think there are many people who have come out. our rallies, secretary clinton's rallies, they are listening very carefully about the choice that they want. they accept that responsibility that is given to them, and all of you in iowa should be very, very proud of that. >> bernie sanders tonight. >> well, you know, from the sheer perspective of score keeping, right, the nomination comes down to who amasses the most delegates and what's decided tomorrow when you have two candidates like bernie sanders and hillary clinton who have points so close is ultimately a delegate spread that might be two or three delegates, but it is the narrative that comes out of iowa
that's so important particularly as steve was mentioning earlier for insurging candidate bernie sanders. i asked him how he defines victory. this is what he said. >> well, obviously it goes without saying that i want to win. we started this campaign, chris, like 40 or 50 points behind. now the polls are very, very close. your point is that if, you know, somebody wins by a few points, somebody loses, the number of delegate difference will be -- i really don't know, two or three delegates, not a whole lot. but there's symbolism in winning and we ore working hard to win and i hope we do and if there's a large voter turnout i think we will win. if there's not a large voter turn out, probably not. but i think we have made a major point. we have advanced 40 or 50 points. we have made a really strong showing. i don't know what the results will be. we're going to go to new hampshire, i think we'll do well
in new hampshire. better in nevada and south carolina. i think we have a campaign that is creating a lot of momentum. >> tles oogeneral sense among republicans i talked to and among democratic sort of political figures, the republicans want you to win and some are putting their money where their mouth is. should that matter. >> republicans want me to win? well, i think maybe these republicans better start checking some of the national polls because if you look at some of the recent national polls i do better against trump than hillary clinton does. if you look at battleground states like iowa, battleground new hampshire, battleground state wisconsin, battleground state, we do much better against trump than does hillary clinton. >> when you say trump, do you -- there's two ways that i've encountered center left folks about trump. one is this is a housing bubble and it will end in ruin and the other is oh, my god, this is a possible thing. i have to reconcile with the possibility that i'll wake up on january 20th, 2017 and watch that guy take the oath.
>> no, donald trump is not going to take the office -- not going to be sworn in as president of the united states. i will beat him and i'll beat him badly. because i think aside from his bigotry and the outrageous things that he's saying in his pathological lying, other than that, this is a guy who wants to give huge tax breaks to billionaires, does not want to raise the minimum wage. thinks that wages in america are too high. he's a guy that i think we can beat and beat badly. >> the event tomorrow night, i don't think people understand this, i think. the event tomorrow is the democratic party event. the republican party and the democratic party are having events to choose their nominees. now, you were not a democrat for most of your career in congress. it was a decision you made. what is your -- on the eve of the democratic caucus tonight, what is your relationship to the democratic party? how do you describe that? >> well, i've been working in the democratic caucus in the house and the senate for the
past 25 years. >> that's different than the party. >> well, i'm a congressman and i'm a senator. so right now i am the ranking member of the leader of the democrats, a couple of years ago i was the chairman of the veterans committee, representing the democrats. but i would say that, you know, if elected president, i would, to be very honest with you, go about making major changes in the way the democratic party does business. it is insane to me and my fellow vermonter howard dean made this point years ago. how can you be a party and how can you ignore the south where poverty is rampant? so i think we need a 50-state strategy and i also believe that we have to make sure that we're getting our funds from working people and middle class people, small donations rather than being dependent on large donations and super packs. so those are some of the changes that i would make. >> last question here on foreign
policy. to people that care a lot f about foreign policy, they care about what's happening in yemen and the saudi war and for people that are skeptical that you actually in your gut and in your head crave knowledge and are investigating these issues, what do you say to them? >> i do. look, nobody can become president of the united states without understanding how serious -- how serious foreign policy is. look, this is life and death stuff. this is war and peace. this is nuclear war. so any serious president has got to be deeply involved. has to -- in foreign affairs. has got to bring the best people in and has got to do the best that we can to try to address the many, many crisises that exist all over the world. i understand that secretary clinton has a whole lot of experience in foreign policy. by definition secretary of state
for four years, but in terms of the most important foreign policy issue what was it? it was the war in iraq. not only did i vote against the war in iraq, go to my website, go to youtube. hear what i said. and what i ended up saying was my fear about what would happen the day after saddam hussein was overthoun and mu overthrown and much of what i said turned out to be right. hillary clinton has a whol lot of experience, she does. judgment matters as well. i trust my judgment in matters of foreign policy. >> do you trust hers? >> let the people decide. she had the same information i had. she was in the house, i was in the senate when bush told us how important it was to invade iraq. she voted yes, i voted no. >> bernie sanders referencing the fact that he came from 50 points down to being neck and neck on the eve of this caucus and sounding very similar to the
bernie sanders a year or six months ago when he was 50 points back. >> i was going to note the change in tone we saw just today. he now finds the clinton e-mails a serious matter and he appeared in your conversation to be kind of channelling his inner teszio. so much for ben and jerry. >> you could tell that as always happens in every campaign that both the candidate and the campaign around him, they're in a fight now. i mean, this is close. whatever they got into this for, they understand they are in the precipice of possibly winning tomorrow and they want it very badly. >> really interesting conversation with bernie sanders out there in des moines, iowa, earlier today. rachel and i have been joined by two of our friends. lawrence o'donnell is out here. host of the last word here on msnbc and eugene robertson. lawrence, eugene, thank you, gentlemen for being here.
>> because bernie sanders is way ahead in the latest polling and all the recent polling in new hampshire. basically a jump ball between bernie sanders and hillary clinton in iowa. put yourself in a time machine and convince yourself of this eight months ago. i mean, how -- how did the democratic race end up like this? >> not going to do it. >> if you were having a conspiracy meeting in the clinton campaign headquarters and you said, you know, we're going to need a democrat to run against her just for show, you know, who can we get? oh, well, there's the socialist from vermont who's 74 years old and from brooklyn and he said he's willing to do it. i don't know. we'd love to get somewhere where we can get ten points though. he has done an amazing thing and there's not one member of the senate who would have predicted it. it's fascinating for me to watch because he highlights better than anyone i've ever seen. the difference between the po politics of government, the
politics of campaigning for president, a totally different game. i would submit there is not a democrat in the senate right now who could run a better campaign for president other than elizabeth warren. i think she's the only one who could have run a better campaign for president than bernie sanders to go up, to be competitive with hillary clinton tonight and within the margin of error in the iowa is extraordinary. >> how did we get to where both of our parties are so ignorant of what's happening in their bases how did we get to the point that the democrats had no idea that bernie sanders and his message would catch on like this? how did the republicans for heaven's take get to the point where donald trump and others who have never been elected dogcatcher are suddenly more favored than elected officials? >> but you know, surges are usually, first of all, about the weakness of the front runner. that was true in 1968 when gene
mccarthy went out there and said i'm going to run against an encome bent president of the united states. no one understood just how weak johnson would be. donald trump steps into an arena where in april in iowa, bush was at 17% and in first place and it looked like from our distance, bush/clinton revisited, it turned out he was an extremely weak front runner and there wasn't a strong second place runner and so now we see the rise of donald trump. >> that's true, lawrence and in fact, you can expand that. i mean, it was said before the campaign how broad and how deep the republican field was, and they turned out not to, you know, i mean, maybe they were paper tigers. >> we also expected that 17 would drop to 16, 15, 13, all the way down. you'd be down to four or five people right now. >> no, no, no. you can have a happy dozen on
the republican side. >> a business incentive. people like mike huckabee are in the lecture business. this is a campaign to maintain fame. it is not a campaign to win an elective office. that didn't used to be the case. >> lots more to come tonight. we'll be talking with former secretary of state hillary clinton in just a few minutes. stay with us. "beth" by kiss ♪ beth, i hear you calling.♪. ♪ but i can't come home right now... ♪ ♪ me and the boys are playing.♪. ♪ ... all nig♪t text beth, what can i do... [siri:] message. pick up milk. oh, right. milk. introducing the newly redesigned passat. from volkswagen. try align for a non-stop,ive sweet-treat-goodness hold-onto-your-tiara, kind-of-day.
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this really is the home stretch. lots of candidates doing events tonight. this is jeb bush right now in iowa. his event simultaneous with bill and hillary clinton echbtd in des moines, iowa. a ted cruz event coming up later in des moines. >> a lot to get to as we enter our second hour of coverage coming up at the top of the next hour. this is msnbc live special coverage on the eve of the iowa
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back here with you live on this iowa caucus eve. brian williams alongside rachel maddow and by this time tomorrow night we'll be looking at our first sense of how iowa caucus goers are voting in the very first contest of the 2016 presidential election. >> we are awaiting a hillary clinton event. she's going to be appearing with her husband, former president bill clinton and with her daughter. we heard that her granddaughter charlotte is also doing events in this home stretch. while we are waiting for that clinton event which we think is also going to include her talking live with us on set by the magic of the telephone i want to talk about the republicans and specifically the republicans and their map in iowa. it seems like one of the things
we can anticipate about the republican side is that the map tells us a lot about where people -- where various candidates need to perform the best and where we should look if we are going to have anything unexpected happen in tomorrow night's results and for that we turn to steve. >> this is the map here from the last time there were republican caucuses in iowa. you can see the purple is rick santorum. remember, he won the state by a few dozen votes basically. mitt romney was the green. the orange here was ron paul. now, what does this tell us about what to expect tomorrow night? there are a couple of areas to pay attention to that are going to offer some clues for what's happening. start up here in the far northwest part of the state. this is a lot of rural area here. this is called sioux county. it was rick santorum's best county in the state in 2012. this is an overwhelmingly rural
republican county in a general election republican candidates are going to get 80, 90% of the votes here. this is heavily evangelical christian. this was the backbone of his victory in 2012. obviously ted cruz has pitched his campaign heavily in this area, but one of donald trump's top supporters is from this part of the state. he has been active here. if donald trump is holding his own up here or winning up here, that is a great sign for donald trump tomorrow night and a very troubling sign for ted cruz. sort of along the mississippi river here in the eastern part of the state down to davenport. these two old working class cities, the characteristics of these cities in these areas, blue collar, catholic -- heavily roman catholic. this is a working class area in iowa. it was for romney and a little bit of paul in 2012. santorum did not do that well here. the profile of these voters,
working class blue collar republican voters. this is where you'd expect donald trump to have success tomorrow night. this area in the middle of the state, this is key. there's been some talk marco rubio could surprise people. he's really concentrated his efforts in these three county. des moines, the state capital and right here to the west, this is the fastest growing suburban county in iowa. the rubio idea is to get these white collar professional class republicans out to vote. if rubio is going to surprise people you've got to look here and finally, you look in iowa city and water loo. these are college towns. if rand paul makes any noise tomorrow night it will come from there. >> when we look back to 2012, obviously the big drama in 2012 is we didn't know who won iowa for a couple of weeks in the end. there was this confusion that there was maybe a tie, no it was a tie, no rick santorum won. he ended up getting like 34 more
votes than romney did and when it came time to allocate the delegates ron paul got most of the delegates. are we expecting the drama again? >> this is a party run event. if it's a really close race, you can't appeal to the secretary of state or to some public entity to rule on it. you have to appeal to the state republican party. secondly, you mention the delegate situation from 2012. it takes a few months to actually allocate convention delegates. the ron paul people gained that. they changed the rules so that the delegates awarded will be related to what happens tomorrow night, but finally, the other thing is the thing about iowa is so much of the state is rural. 99 counties. i'm giving you the big ones. but a lot of these you see here, you're talking about 80, 90, 110 people showing up. rick santorum won this thing by
a margin of votes because he would get 28 votes and mitt romney was take 24. so it take as long time to get all of those in. that's another complicating factor here. >> all 99 counties in iowa. let's go all the way to the west in iowa to sioux city where we mentioned earlier donald trump wrapped up an event tonight. what does he have remaining on the schedule and what room to call iowa audibles? >> reporter: well, he has a rally tomorrow, quite near des moines and waterlooo and he hope to have a victory party tomorrow night, but right now, this was anything but a raw cuss rally, the day before iowans get out to vote. usually he has very big rallies. he does call and repeats with them sometimes, but this was a much more subdued version of him. it was this informal question and answer.
falwell jr. talking about all the charitable giving that donald trump has done and culminated with him giving $100,000 check to support veterans and soldiers. this all comes from that money that donald trump was able to raise when he skipped out on the debate. so he's been trying to embrace this softer version of himself. i think what the campaign sees is that he's been wild and raucus and at times ruffling a lot of feathers and tonight they presented a different version of him. someone who's easier to talk to. someone that's a little nicer. the gentler version of donald trump. he's trying to eat away at ted cruz's evangelical pull in this state. he suggests he's got the votes locked up. what he's trying to do is eat away at any of the evangelical support of ted cruz.
that's why you saw him in church this morning swaying to hymns. and he was here in the city and what he wants to do is get a little bit more support from that group of voters and they believe that will put them over the edge here in iowa and that they'll have a very good night tomorrow night. >> we're also predicting some precipitation out your way around tomorrow night so be careful in your travels across the state back to the east. let's go to chris matthews in des moines at our election headquarters there. chris, while you were talking earlier, listening to lawrence o'donnell the last half hour, i was thinking about how big a hit the conventional wisdom and those who deal in it have taken here. no one could have predicted a year back any of this. you can grab whatever aspect you want. the fall of bush, the rise of sanders, the rise -- the appearance of donald trump. you've been around politics a long time that thrives on
predictions. pays a ton of money for people to go on cable tv and make predictions. what a hit the conventional wisdom has taken. >> let's start with citizens united. we thought that the brothers and the others would run this campaign. all the money they've spent out here or all the big money spent out here, $15 million in iowa for jeb bush, george's son and brother, nothing, it's not happening. he's running 2% out here. bernie sanders on the other hand who's running against citizens united as an issue is really, really scoring on it it's not just -- well, there he is. and the fact is he's been able to say the billionaires are not just buying our goods and services with their wealth, they're buying our elections, a powerful message that we didn't expect. i want to go to steve and andrea here. you know, the big story tomorrow, we already know from the polling is the republican party is not the republican party it was. the bush is running a 2%.
his father won out here, his brother won out here. now it looks to be cruz and trump will dominate the numbers tomorrow. >> when you look at the combined numbers for donald trump, ben carson and ted cruz, the bill has come due for an error of failure by the republican establishment. a failed war, the great recession. the housing bubble. you look at all of the failure on the part of republicans in washington, the complicity in doubling the national debt over the last decade, the corruption of the delay of congress and now you see republican voters across this country in open revolt against the establishment of the party. >> i think that story we already know. >> i've been spending time with party leaders and going back and forth. i can tell you that both political parties are having a collective nervous breakdown. they think trump might pull some of them in that cruz would just
jet son and then the democratic side, they think that sanders' strength is breaking the party apart, and if trump were the republican nominee, they think those reagan democrats you and i remember, michigan, other places like that, they're going to come over and vote in the democratic race and they could defeat hillary clinton. >> let me ask you about a proposition i have which is what we've been talking about in congress now for a decade at least. this dysfunction. this voting against, voting no all the time. the tea party. some certain percentage of the republican party comes in every day to vote no, no, no. that dysfunction has seeped into the presidential process and now we're basically saying no as the real response to the voter. >> well, when you look at the rise of bernie sanders against hillary clinton and certainly senator sanders could win here tomorrow. this is systemic fail your akrots across the depth and breadth of the country. those bonds of trust between the
american people and all these institutions are broken. the failures of leadership, the failures of governance are not contained to the republican party. they exist in the democratic party and we don't talk enough about the connective thread between a bernie sanders voter and a donald trump voter. both candidates are the candidates in this race talking about the corrupting influence of money in politics. >> let's talk about the one big role model shift. historically the republican party has been the party of whose turn it is. usually a bush. this time around it was hillary clinton's turn. right? you take this. and yet, the party seems to be fighting that. they don't want to make it easy. they certainly don't want to make it sure now. they want to test these two candidates. even bernie sanders for two or three months perhaps. >> i ran in to barney frank -- they are so angry at bernie sanders. they feel it is a complete rejection of the obama legacy.
he would argue differently, but they think this is -- that they did the best they could with frank, it needs improvement, but they fought for every single vote, they got no help from republicans and now that bernie sanders is basically rejecting everything that they fought so hard for, now, as of course, they made comp miedss along the way and it's not the progressive legacy that the progressive wing of the party wants. >> let's talk about martin o'malley tomorrow evening. do you think he'll send a signal to his caucus attenders that they may go to hillary if they don't get the 15%? because she looks like the ultimate winner still. >> what hillary clinton -- what the campaign is doing with this new app they rolled out, they're not just tracking voters. they have the play book that defeated her eight years ago. they are figuring out which precincts to go to where they can take delegates away from sanders by shifting people to o'malley and make him viable. >> they want to go to o'malley.
>> they want to take people and shift them to o'malley in key areas where it looks like sanders is going to win and take delegates away from him. >> let's go back to brian williams in new york. >> three of our veterans there in iowa. you've got your chris matthews, and you've got your steve smitd. >> and that last point that they were just making that andrea was reporting about, what may happen with martin o'malley supporters on the democratic side. >> we may need legos for that. >> it's a strategic tactical move that take as 90 degree turn in the middle of it. it's one of the things i'm hoping we can ask hillary clinton about. hillary clinton is on her way to des moines. we'll be talking with her live in just a few minutes. we'll have much more on this big night before the iowa caucuses. we'll be right back. stay with us.
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in des moines, iowa, tonight as the count down begins for tomorrow's iowa caucus, it's a hot night in the all purpose room at abraham lincoln high school where they are all gathered and awaiting the arrival of former secretary of state, former senator hillary clinton. that includes our own kristen welker who is there. >> reporter: you can feel the energy here. it's electric. supporters getting really energized in these final days and so is the candidate herself. i've been following her since the moment she first announced and i can tell you that in these final days she has really delivered some of her most spirited speeches yet. delivered her final pitch to voters that she says she is the most experienced candidate and the best one to take on
republicans in the general election. i spoke to her officials earlier tonight who told me there's a measure of confidence headed into tomorrow. really in part that des moines register bloomberg poll which gave her a slim lead, but that is one of the ones that it's going to come to the tournout. we'll have to wait and see to tomorrow. rachel, i'll toss it back to you. >> clintons have not had an easy time in iowa. bill clinton of course won the nomination in 1992, but not before he came in fourth place in iowa. hillary clinton did not win the nomination in 2008. she lost iowa to barack obama in 2008. she also lost iowa to john edwards in 2008. she came in third place. lawrence o'donnell, our master of strategy here. >> in '92 when clinton was running the iowa senator tom har kin was running and so everybody
said forget about it. and i think the gdp of iowa dropped considerably because the democrats ignored it. >> 4th is not second. it absolutely is not second. >> so martin o'malley is the distant third place in all the polls right now and there's a question as to how many caucuses will his supporters be able to put up 15% of the total number of people there and stay viable. >> if any. and then there's this trick that you can play. if you are the clinton campaign or the sanders' campaign, if martin o'malley, if you see in your caucus gymnasium that hey, it looks like he's maybe around 14%, you can say to one of your clinton supporters, go over there, stand with o'malley. that will get him 15%. that means the 15% stays solidified in this count. if not, that 15% would then have to disperse and divide between hillary clinton and bernie sanders and you know, the betting is that it may well lean
toward sanders since he is more of a challenger. >> there was one ppp poll that broke this down recently in which martin o'malley supporters were asked, who would your second choice be and they do really break toward bernny which is why the clinton campaign is saying we'd rather keep martin o'malley viable than let his supporters go to support sanders. >> 100% name recognition. very long governing record. it has all of the benefits of incumbency, but challengers are more likely to go to sanders as we've seen. and this tlrick was invented by the obama campaign. >> i was just going to say that and while cynical, it's legal given the type of these party gathering. >> it's tactical. it's not ugly if you explain why you're doing it.
>> they should just count the votes. count the people who show up who are for o'malley. the complications they have in there now are -- make it virtually indescribable to people in iowa. >> the interesting thing will be whether or not the democratic party is able to retain the sort of growth rate that they've had in their turnout at the iowa caucuses. we saw them go from 60,000 to 120,000 to 240,000 people. we saw them double from 2000 to 2004, to 2008. obviously they're not going to get more than 400,000 people. they're not going to be able to double it again for 2016. the turnout projections from the people who do that sort of thing does not seem to indicate that we'll have a huge new tide of caucus goers. if that number levels off, that's not good for bernie sanders, but it's a question of whether it's good for the democratic party. >> if we use the traditional mathematics for turnout, which is percent, this is tiny.
this is like a city council race in los angeles. it's down below 20% usually. >> that's true. >> and so the big version of turnout there is 21%. this is not a -- you know, as much as we concentrate on it and even at these events tonight, it's really fascinating to see, we'll have this thing that's a little bit difficult to participate in tomorrow called the caucus tomorrow night and by the way, we'd like you to come up the night before and cheer for our candidates, those are committed voters. the ones that are coming out the night before and tomorrow night. >> and lawrence o'donnell talked about the effect on the iowa economy. you want to be in the jet fuel business, the bus rental business. >> folding chair rentals. >> yeah, speaking of jet fuel, the plane carrying former secretary of state hillary clinton has landed in des moines. we are expecting to speak to her by telephone before she enters the aforementioned all purpose room in george washington high