tv Squawk on the Street CNBC October 23, 2020 9:00am-11:00am EDT
predictions i don't really think you need my predictions for anything at this point. you know what i mean >> draft kings account -- i was going to say -- >> yeah, yeah. >> take the opposite fade my picks. anyway, have a great weekend and we'll do it again next week. >> you too, guys >> "squawk on the street" is next >> thanks. good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures are pretty solid here as investors react not only to the debate last night and first official fda approval for a covid treatment. intel, mattel, amex and the ongoing stimulus talks our road map begins with that big pharma boost the president says a covid vaccine is just weeks away with j&j, moderna and pfizer leading the way. >> gilead shares are up in the premarket, the fda approving its antiviral drug remdesivir as a
treatment for the coronavirus. and intel tumbling this morning. it is going to be down more than 10% this despite better than expected earnings, but really it is all about the chipmaker showing new weakness in that data center business, carl and i know we're going to be spending a good amount of time on this. you got bob swan joining you later on "squawk alley". >> yeah, that's a big story today. of course, as we said earlier, though, jim, pharma is the other big story, the president's comments, cure vac, what we heard from gilead and the fda yesterday. >> look, i wish that the president were right about j&j, that's not right the company has not said that. it has been very adamant that time frame is very different just hate them or like them, the president got that wrong and i'm sure j&j is anxious to try to make that clear moderna does have a an earlier track because they got the blueprint quickly. but to put j&j in that spot is
really a shame we do have therapeutics, i'm sure meg will talk about remdesivir, that is not a surprise it has been used throughout the country for the last five months regeneron probably is next with the therapeutic that works very well i think a lot of what is happening today is because europe was good in two places that were really shocking, barclays did a great quarter barclays and we saw the yield curve work yesterday in favor of the banks, might be continued move and then daimler a good -- daimler had a good quarter i don't know how that's possible maybe chinese salesbecause a lot of the business in china, but we have a carry over from europe that is very, very strong i think david that sometimes you get a reaction from europe that shocks you and barclays being good at a time when the yield curve is bending in the right way, makes people excited about a group that has been very down and out and daimler, i think the autos are running here >> yeah, it is interesting
europe is now, you know, obviously dealing with a resurgence of the virus. we haven't talked about much we hit our highest number of cases was it ever, i think maybe we set a record. >> yesterday, yeah. >> 73 or 77,000. sorry. >> 77. almost 78. and that surpasses the late july high >> so it is interesting, jim, that we're seeing that it was obviously a good amount of time was spent on it yesterday in terms of this perception, well, is it lockdown versus not lockdown, how do you reopen an economy when people don't want to participate fully in economic activity, even if you want them to without getting control of the virus, which we clearly have not yet, thankfully, though, the death rate is coming down, though we're still around 1,000 per day. to your point on j&j, the president did say moderna and pfizer, we know that they're coming soon. in terms of giving us the results. and then potentially being in a
position to get that emergency use from the fda, pretty soon. and then there is the therapeutics, which, i mean, he talked about obviously he was treated with one, which is the regeneron, i talked a lot about what merck has, which is mk 4482 used to be ie 2801, now has a new name, the oral antiviral -- listen that's going to be an important, important drug if and when it also gets emergency use. >> yes what is difficult -- i just talked about this many times, and the ceo agrees with me, ken frazier does not like to talk about things. and promote things until they're absolutely dead right. keytruda was clearly the, i think, it is going to be the biggest drug of all time, but he would not give anyone false hope who has cancer and directly related that to me and told me that because i remember the false hope i got with my mother when she was dying of cancer
he's not going to play that. he doesn't do that the president is right about pfizer and the moderna is -- i think there are a lot of people ready, there is a good trial from moderna going on in new york city i chose not to be in that, i tried to get into j&j trial, but it is hard -- it is very hard to get into, these things are very ongoing, regeneron, if they -- it is by far the favorite. because you see dramatic reaction instantly with regeneron, instantly meaning two or three days, but, carl, i think that there is a tremendous amount of sense that the trade-off is worth it. it is worth it to open it up, because the death rate is low. it is maybe not worth it to open up if you have the case load i think the american people, many parts of the country decided, you know what, the death rate is so low, let's open it up and let's have the people who are co-morbidity, let them stay home. so it is flipped and i think even vice president biden felt very reluctant to say that we should lock down again, that point was hammered home in a
couple of very severe jabs in last night's debate. >> yeah, you're absolutely right. speaking of the debate, jim, you mentioned the sort of cautionary comments we have gotten from ken frazier of merck, from the ceo of pfizer, from roche just this week it conflicts somewhat with what the president's timeline was last night take a listen really quick >> you also said a vaccine will be coming within weeks >> yes. >> is that a guarantee >> no, it is not a guarantee it will be by the end of the year but i think it has a good chance, there are two companies i think within a matter of weeks and it will be distributed very quickly. >> can you tell us which companys >> johnson & johnson is doing very well, moderna is doing very well, pfizer is doing very well, and we have numerous others. then we also have others that we're working on very closely with other countries, in particular europe. >> let me follow up with you and because this is new information. you have said a vaccine is coming soon within weeks now you're own officials say it could take well into 2021 at the earliest for enough americans to
get vaccinated and even then they say the country will be wearing masks and distancing into 2022 is your timeline realistic. >> i think my timeline is going to be more accurate. >> jim, we'll see. the roche ceo this week said the before year end was, quote, completely unrealistic preclinical trial news today, there is another wave of candidates behind the ones we're talking about so much. >> i think the oxford astrazeneca is another one that people want very much to be in the trial for. i think a lot of what you're doing is you're getting your doctor, you're going to your primary physician, and primary physician is saying, go into one of these if you can now, there are very different agegroups and very different pre-existing illnesses that allow you to get in or not i think the president's timeline has been aggressive. he's always been aggressive. i think dr. fauci would say that he was lumped in last night with
a group of -- i don't want to say it, okay i once got in trouble already saying something that imitated the president. i'm not going that way but i do think that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but i think it is much more as david says, it is much more the idea that you're still going to go to the hospital, but going to get out of the hospital. and that is a huge win, david, for what we have. >> yeah. and, again, when we get these earlier -- when we get therapeutics available earlier, whether it is regeneron, still has to be infused or the lilly or as i said the merck drug, that could -- those could be significant game changers. for a guy who dissembles a lot being the president, i think he was quite accurate last night. i don't think that was new news what he said pfizer and moderna, he threw j&j in there i mean -- >> splitting hairs >> probably accidental he was naming some of the names, but moderna, pfizer are the
closest. they are probably going to give us at least data very soon they could get emergency use approval in the next few months. >> moderna might be november. >> we are not going to got a fully available vaccine for majority of the population for many, many, many months, which is what makes the antivirals -- >> are we nitpicking saying he mentioned the wrong drug company? >> listen, for him, that was right on the mark. let's be honest. right. it's true. now, by the way, new york is not a ghost town that one i'll take issue with for those of us who live there but, carl, i will come back to that idea that you were just talking about, and the idea that jim was, which is, you know, what i hear all day long in talking to the senior leaders of a lot of the firms that we know well as frustration that they're younger people are not coming back to work and it is fascinating, actually. people who are least vulnerable, jim, 20s and 30s, early in their careers, who are off renting houses in montana or wherever they may be, and don't want to come back.
so, you know, again, new york, far, far, far from a ghost town. anybody who lives there will tell you that. at the same time, midtown office buildings, they're pretty quiet. because people are coming back, even though they want them to. >> are you going to be the senior person who says i want you back at the office and then you get -- >> that's the problem. they have gone to neutral, but not demanding a lot of the employees come back. they throw their hands up. i had conversations, i know you have too, it is fascinating. we don't understand why they're not coming back. >> i speak to hundreds of ceos and they're all spending, say, two, three, four days at the office and in order to inspire young people to go can you imagine? >> it is definitely -- it is a kind of soft power to use a foreign policy analog. they're trying to set by example. there is an unspoken nudge, i think, you could say from hr, hey, let's do this, management wants to see it, but to david's point, it is not a hard sell, yet. >> right, but goldman sachs, i
can tell you this would be my chance i would stay there for 18 hours and leave my jacket on the chair, so they thought i was there 24 hours and i would advance rapidly. >> facetime with your boss and by the way, they made a decision, what i'm hearing, they can't effectively train people >> you can't. >> they just can't >> and the elevators are viewed -- elevators are probably viewed as the most dangerous thing -- >> you're wearing a mask, you can -- at this point, again, they're talking 10% of people coming in, jim, nobody is really at risk. >> it is incredible. when you try to -- jpmorgan has gigantic training programs and the key to them is not zoom. it is being one on one with them so i understand where jamie dimon is coming from most industries, they're hard pressed to say why younger people have to come in and i just think it is a remarkable term where the younger people are calling the shots. estee lauder has a program on fridays you are -- you're the
boss if you're a younger person and in order to get people to understand -- the older people what the younger people are wearing. this is the opposite four days a week, you're the boss, one day a week, the boss is the boss. and i find it rather incredible given the fact that zoom is not necessarily always effective it is a bit of a hollywood squares when you got a 40 person class. it is amazing. you know what was the most amazing thing last night, carl when my late father tripped daniel jones on the 20 people think it was just hims f himself. my late father. >> what happened i guess i know what happened the eagles won. >> ghost -- people say it was a ghost. >> i don't even know i'm completely clueless. >> oh, my god. >> leading the division again, jim. congratulations. >> shoo-in we looked great. >> you're going to win the division like 4-12 >> i'm not defending us.
late july as b of a as we said earlier goes to underperform with a target of 45. data center again. >> i know you have bob swan on later, which will be very good because frankly i think he got a pass on the conference call. in part because he's regarded as being a total gentleman, which he is, but the miss in the data center, when you read the analyst comments, they're being very kind. the real issue here was competition. it was amd with a better mouse trap, it is nvidia coming into the data center, and as much as bob swan would like to say, you know what, it is the margin compression is something you need to worry about, i think they have to worry greatly because i think they have underspent on product and underspent on buying back stock. their capital allocation is not that good. this was a very bad quarter. and there were -- there were reasons to expect that it would be a great one, david, sometimes you get a quarter and the analysts aren't expecting much and just don't get even what
they're expecting. >> yeah. >> there have been some expectation because remember it was last quarter when they came up with these manufacturing issue on the -- the 7 nanometer. >> couldn't do the 7 >> they didn't give anybody anything on whether they're fixing that, did they? >> no. and the analyst did not rebel. they started initially started saying, listen, you haven't explained the gross margins. but mr. swan, because he is an eloquent good man and you'll find this, carl, when you interview him, he was not held to a standard that i would have expected very little mention of his mobile line initiative, automobile he does not have inference chips, inference chip is rather amazing. one of the reasons i like jensen and what he's done, the remarkable job he's done, when you get in a mercedes, you listen to this, you're not going to do this, if you go to
mercedes and say, oh, man, is it hot in here, the air conditioner goes on. that's inference intel accident have the chips. >> there is lack of claure ty. i clarity here. i'm reading a note here, they were the principle downgrader. there is no clarity on when a decision will be made in terms of exploring options to use other companies to use -- >> they mean taiwan semi very badly. >> or go completely -- it is not clear if any foundry has the spare capacity to make intel's multiple transistors there is no shortage of issues here. >> intel was the primary creator of the great foundries the fabs i was an intel hawk. i went it a fabulous fab in israel had no people because it was the sackabbath and then a beautiful one in ireland, it was a carbon copy of others.
i regarded intel at one point as the greatest manufacturer we had in this country. now people are saying they should outsource it. >> well, i wonder, jim, at what point did you stop being an intel hawk >> they stopped having engineers and scientists run the country and went with sales people and financial people >> well, sounds like you're talking about bob directly we had this discussion with him before >> pay pal -- ebay, look, again, he's -- why am i so reluctant to knock the guy? it wasn't his choice he didn't necessarily want to be -- he would tell you, he told me on my show, he didn't want the job, he got the job and i -- having been to lunch with him, look, my show is not about friends, it is about money but you do meet some people who are extraordinarily good and kind but they're not necessarily in the right position. >> right well, as you can see, intel will be a drag on the dow the opening bell in ten minutes. don't go away. this is decision tech.
welcome back time for a mad dash, we get ready for the opening bell eight minutes until we get started with trading for the last session of the week the gap. >> well, this is done in honor of what the heck you're wearing. >> these might actually be from the gap. >> you fell in the gap with that outfit incredible, this turn in the gap. this is a remarkable turn, matthew boss first to identify it, jpmorgan investor day yesterday, i'm using this because of you, but not because of your ridiculous outfit they are shrinking to grow i'm not kidding. kalyn, shrink to grow. they have a hidden gem in
athlet athleta, which could be a business against lulu. you don't really have to worry as much about banana republic or gap. a lot of people are saying, jim, this is a mall story it is bigger than that i had to congratulate the people running gap, because everyone thought that was just going to go the way -- >> they d tell me about digital and what they're doing there >> they have a good database they could do much more. that's a wide open area that will bring what people think is the next leg and the same way that l brands doesn't have anything. >> i thought this was done a lot of people, look, even back in -- that was the height of the pandemic -- the low for the market. >> david, work with me here. work with me you -- you're at home, nobody sees you, you don't have to go outside, you wear ending up -- you wear what we call -- and, david, well done.
>> thank you i knew when i was -- i was, like, oh, man, he's going to give me a lot of -- i watched that daniel jones video. >> that's it >> i've never seen anything like it. >> i advise everyone to watch that, just to be able to say, i'm better than that guy >> he's fast that was the -- one of the sadder things i've seen in football lately. >> at the district championship, i did the same thing in track. my coach -- they were laughing on the sidelines they have a lot to laugh , giants they found something to laugh about. >> we got to go. an opening bell a few minutes away. >> what the heck are you wearing? >> stay with us here on "squawk on the street. woman: after covid, my hours got cut. so we can't pay our bills. and now our family budget is gonna be hit hard with prop 15. the yes on 15 ads say
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apple's iphone 12 hitting stores in china today as preorders indicate pretty strong demand lines outside the stores in shanghai, maybe not as long as they have been for similar launches, but, of course, a lot of ordering has gone online. the south china morning post reports that global reorders for the 12 at least twice as high in the first 24 hours compared with the 11 last year
jim, i mean, so many different dynamics on this particular phone, but we'll take what we can get. >> yes, it is interesting to read the conflicting reports geopolitically versus apple. you're reading articles about how the government is cracking down, it is becoming harder line, and then you enumbsee num from apple it is not like they're saying we won't let you buy apple. it is almost as if they're saying apple is exempt from geopolitics. a lot of that is tim cook's graciousness i just think that he has not been -- i think he's worked well with everyone. because think about it, they're not in -- they're not a part of the huawei miasma. >> right i'm letting you focus on apple i've been trying to focus on the carriers and what is going to happen there. >> at&t was remarkable i read through -- >> strong day yesterday. we talked to hans vestberg from
verizon earlier this week when they reported earnings t-mobile but the question continues to be is this going to be a more promotional environment than is typical? everybody wants to keep telling you normal, normal, that's what hans vestberg said, that's what john stevens, the cfo of at&t told me yesterday during a phone call as well normal the analysts, though, who follow the companies say not normal the numbers are bigger in terms of the subsidy for the iphone 12 and it is going to be reflective of more price war, hitting margin, and then everybody, of course, talks about how their network is the best. it makes your head spin in terms of everybody has their own argument. >> it is interesting, david, we at john legere on, his last appearance, and he said there will be more competition than ever and i remember just thinking, what is this guy in the magenta shirt -- because he really had the guts to come on and say this, he may have been dead right, david when, he said no more competition i don't remember all three of
these companies in a grab like this amazing. stop looking at the david jones video and focus on your job. >> mesmerizing. >> it is hypnotic, jim let's get the opening bell and a look at -- you were talking gap, a couple of segments go, jim, i see on i ha they cut best we th street expectations for postpandemic prospects turned to optimistic >> yeah, look, cost pressures, they are -- best buy is in control here they have done a remarkable job. i think people -- look, the opco note isn't wrong headed, but when you need help to buy something, you don't go to amazon you actually go to best buy. and, look, i find if you any what you're doing, you can go to
costco, okay, for big stuff. otherwise you can go to amazon f you actually have a question, there is a human being, sometimes that human being works for the company that you're buying something from. but i think that this note underestimates, david, have you done any combining of any goods that are over your head? >> over my head being bigger than i am? is that what you're saying >> that would be the mac but, no, i'm talking about the -- when you have to go and say, look, i understand -- >> you mean actually not something i can understand. >> when i -- i forget, andrew ross sorkin was talking about the genius bar i find when i go and buy something for kids that is not an apple, i want to ask a question there is people at best buy and they can answer questions. carl, it is more fun when you're older to go to a best buy than when you're younger and kids don't need anyone. they know so much. we know so little. i mean, i know i got a camera
here on my phone. >> take your kids with you, that's all they'll help you. >> huh >> take them with you. >> it is a surprise. >> that's what i do. >> all right >> jim, ten-year now, 86 basis points, going back to june is it time to start selling home builders and start buying banks? >> i've been -- pulte homes is the one you want to watch. if pulte home cannot rally, then i think, yes, yesterday was the beginning of the regional bank rally. i thought that was premature because one day does not a trend make but i will say that that this is a group, the home builders, i think is reacting more to a supply shortage than it is to rates. because rates are still very, very low you may have the best of both worlds here. i think that this is a moment where there are a lot of people who want to rotate into groups that have not moved.
oil, off of the consolidation, and the banks because they're just so inexpensive. let's watch goldman. i think the papers are very wrong about saying that goldman -- this is another disgrace for goldman i think the clawback of -- to the executives, david, you know the clawback was rather shocking and amazing. not unlike when maxwell with bonds just -- robert maxwell, he defrauded people and goldman had to -- the execs had to reach in their pocket i think that was good, because it means the shareholders didn't have to reach in their pockets >> going back a long way willed from frost recording on that yesterday for us, fairly significant and involving former execs, some current as well. former, lloyd blankfein, having to give back some comp. >> david, you know that when you read about that, there was a moment where it looked like it was too good to be true for goldman, i think you would have been flagged, but -- >> that's the question their competitors will say,
david solomon will take issue with this, but they'll say, come on, man. the risk -- what you're getting paid on that, that should have -- a lot of red flags should have gone off right away. >> they have a letter from the -- the guy head of the country. who knew he was part of the mob. i think to have that behind goldman is big and the fact that my charitable trust is -- a sent david solomon a knnote saying thank you for n making them pay every penny of this. >> sticking with financials, we see at the bottom of the screen there, we talked intel, we haven't talked american express, it is down you and i both know ceos steve squary what is your sense in terms of what is going on with the quarter in which -- what did they do? net income of 1.1 billion, 1.30 a share, that's what it was. well down from a year ago. >> but i thought that the decision to spend a lot of money was on small business and advertising and getting -- they added people the actual t&e we're so used to
thinking is in american express is not as big as we thought. and contactless helped them tremendously contactless without the keyboard, the keyboard, one of the most dangerous areas in covid, i was surprised how good it was given the fact that american express is, look, we think of american express as what you business traveler pays with but it turns out the consumer spends a lot of money, it would not surprise me that not this quarter current but the quarter after that you start seeing some of the benefit of the spend that steve squary is doing now. i think steve squary is a thoughtful person thinking out more than just three months. >> yeah. there is this lingering fear, jim, as you any, that the delinquency story is really a rolling story that will hit us in q1, q2 and that to see th banks start to take off some of the loss provisions is, i don't know, some argue premature. >> capital one though is pretty good the losses of american express were remarkably good
i think the issue with american express frankly is the closure of restaurants and the lack of travel, but, yesterday, gary kelly, in a very, i think, understated way, gave you a -- a sign that the travelers are coming back. so they're probably going to be people who have missed the last few days of the bank rally in morgan stanley and jpmorgan who after a day will come back to american express american express is a company that is a consumer company, that happens to have a lot of business spend. >> i wonder on the business spend, we talked to gary kelly about it yesterday, jim, he said, listen, my opinion is worth what it is worth, which is not much i'm kind of paraphrasing what he said in terms of when they come back, the business traveler. we talked a lot about it i just don't think based on what i'm hearing that you're ever going to seat level of business travel that you once did will there be travel of course. there may even be a good amount of it, but it won't be what it was. >> just going to -- >> people are not getting on
planes to do things they used to we're in the talking about -- what the advances in zoom are going to be like. >> 5g zoom. >> what that's going to be like and how it is going to make it even easier to conduct the kinds of business, how many mergers and acquisitions have been done via zoom how many investments have been made >> press the flesh. >> it is amazing what you've been able to accomplish and i do think you're going to see somewhat muted return in terms of business travel. >> carl, the idea that you're going to hug or handshake is done okay so -- >> yeah. >> you do not have that edge of saying, oh, the big -- how are you doing? no, stay away from me! stay away from me! and i think the stay away from me makes it so that zoom is there. david is laughing, but when you have those two masked men get together, you know, it is like the lone rangers are hanging out and i'm pro mask i think it is a different era. >> our former colleague rebecca jarvis tweeted the other day,
she said, what practice that you had precovid will you not go back to and all the replies on twitter were handshakes and to some degree, jim, getting coffee out of home because people are getting used to making their coffee in the house and think maybe post covid they don't necessarily go back to pre-covid habit. >> there are some people saying that the lack of spend of that coffee at home is actually impacting. which i find not that expensive, unless you go to the triple venti cappuccino with skim web starbucks having doing some great allocation, taking advantage of the rents being cut and stores being closed, and putting in express lanes at chipotle doing very well chipotle should have been up yesterday. >> they always find a way. you messengered consolidati emen the oil sector we had pioneer, conoco deal, that was this week too
beginning of the week. came up obviously in the debate yesterday in terms of climate change, toward the end of the debate the two candidates going back and forth on that. but, you know, i wanted to come back to, it is just interesting, the journal reported on at least what they made to duke energy. we talked about it at the time, there the two of them are. drew my attention to nextera in general. >> growth utility. >> it has grown through acquisition. look at that isn't that -- that -- >> incredible. >> that tells a story, didn't it right there? sometimes charts don't, that does and by the way, on the -- on the duke energy front, you know there have been some expectation about -- from people close to duke and in terms of wondering whether nextera would try to come back in a formal way or
unsolicited, you can never say these things are completely dead from what i'm hearing, though, nextera seems to have moved on what would have gone on there, in terms of any chance of really getting it through, how long it would take, what the number really needed to be despite the fact that with that stock, they could pay a high price i'm hearing that they're likely to have moved on can't say definitively at this point, but did want to share that as well did still have ten bucks in it from when the journal reported that story >> speaking of the debate, a lot of times what you want to think about in a debate is what is not talked about there were no attacks on the managed care companies they got -- they skated through. so what happens? united health, which, by the way, is the principle one people talk about, because it decided to leave the obamacare exchanges, and the stock -- it wasn't attacked, and, boom, it is a winner. this group is a winner because
they weren't mentioned they were not -- they were not vilified, even as the obamacare plan at various times was attacked by the current president. so i do think that they were the winners. there is the winners because no one took a shot at them pretty interesting >> david, there were a lot of shots taken. >> carl? >> i did want to ask you, it happened very late in the debate, but i bet you, i guarantee you next few days we're going to hear more about biden and fracking and oil in pennsylvania and texas and i wonder if you think that was a surprise or if it is an echo of what we're already beginning to see from tv commercials and white papers out of bp and exxon? >> i think there are issues, for instance, we had scott sheffield on who runs pioneer on "mad money," one issue they said about why they're so excited about the company, they have no federal land and that's about saying biden can't hurt us, okay, with the
belief that biden is going t stop fracking. pennsylvania, the president was very on point, saying that biden has not been exactly clear, i think that's fair. i'm not saying he's against fracking he's not -- exactly clear, but the oil people, the oil men so to speak and women, occidental, are very concerned that they'll lose federal land under biden where, of course, the president given the fact that he said he wants to drill in anwar, i'm still struggling with that one, would certainly not put any limits on any place. >> anywhere, yeah. >> no. >> carl? >> a lot to digest from last night. let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, guys. happy friday so three to one advancing to declining stocks, nice muted week overall what is not muted. look at the sectors, banks moving up, yields moving up here, that's the kbe, etf there, that's up 7% this week there is your big winner right
now. industrials, energy fair, techs down primarily because of intel and semiconductor he wassing on it speaking of intel, the earnings, not many earnings misses this quarter so far small number but if you miss, heaven help you you can see here, intel to the downside, american express also down a little bit, but cleveland cliffs did well, illinois tool works good numbers, capital one just killed it and we're seeing a little bit of price moves on that, that's something we haven't seen a lot, companies beating good numbers, but not seeing a lot of price moves. so we're a quarter of the way through earnings season. we have excellent results overall, we have been putting the numbers up all week, beating by 20, that's huge the historic beat, 3, 4, 5%. way above expectations what we're not seeing is price moves f you lo if you look at the s&p 500, we topped out october 12th, 35. or so now 34.50 or so, we haven't done that much since the earnings season started even among those reporting
earnings, the price gains have been minimal jpmorgan watches this. gain of 0.1% the day after that's pretty minimal. but if you miss, you missed by 4% you saw what happened to amex and intel and some other ones. some other ones we had that missed, they're down even more here union pacific had a miss, kimberly-clark, ibm, these are for the week, what they're doing, you see any miss here is penalized pretty severely. so far the revisions what we want to know is how things are going in the fourth quarter. upward revisions, pretty modest here we're down about 13%, now down about 12%. this is the fourth quarter we're looking at, which is what everybody cares about. so the problem here, guys, is excellent earnings results are not translating into big price moves, nor is it translating in particularly big fourth quarter revisions on the upside here i think the problem is very simple we know all about it
stimulus/vaccine/reopening/the election overlay is really complicated efforts to figure out what the prices are, what the right prices are that's why everyone is looking forward to get past the election and past some of these events and then we'll figure out what the real prices are. guys, back to you. >> all right, bob, we'll see you in a little bit, bob pisani. pmi composite numbers here, to rick santelli. >> yes, we're waiting the october, these are preliminary, carl, which means we'll toss them when we get the finals later in the month for the market, manufacturing, 53.3, 53.3, arguably a bit light to expectations but they do make the one, two, three, fourth number in a row that is in the 50s which is expansion, of course, on the services side, a little bit stronger number based on expectations 56.0 that's subsequentially higher than the 54.6 in the rear view mirror as is the manufacturing headline, but that one only by a
tenth, versus 53.2 in the current read of 53.3 finally if you put it all together into the final x composite, 55.5, versus 54.3 we're putting a string of expansions in a row here, and this is a good thing now to the charts, it is all about interest rates this week, and the rise and how they're doing it is statistically and technically and historically pretty bullish for more of higher rate type trade. let's look at two-day of 10s look at yesterday's high yields, we're basically the same as today. third year pretty much the same scenario, for 10s, just a whisker under 87 for 30 year bonds. why is that important? open the ten year up to one week chart and you can see we build upon the previous day's highs ever since retail sales a week ago friday today, basically sideways, i would look for more to the upside if this is going to continue let's go to the long maturity, 30 year and back to july
why? this particular week is a huge week for 10s and 30s double digit gains it is the biggest week since, well, the week of august 7th through august 13th. if you look on the left side of the charts, see the jack-o'-lantern teeth, right athat is the week i'm referring to it is extending to like this week is. when it comes to the yield curve, all yield curves are steepening, 10 minus 2s the most since february 18. one week of the dollar index, down almost 1 penny on the week, week where interest rates are moving to the upside very counterintuitive carl, jim, david, back to you, have a great weekend >> all right, rick we'll see you later. everything rick said is one reason why financials are leading today, trying to ride the coattails of those higher rates. info tech is down. the nasdaq, the dow is trying to close a down we can on an upnote back in a moment
it was clear that for whatever reason, this was not going to be as successful as we had hoped. we took stock and said the best thing to do, the honorable thing was to return money to share holders when we knew this wasn't going to have a path forward as a viable business. we felt like it was the right decision for shareholders. >> very disappointed that we have disappointing investors and our employees. for me, i've got to go back on the horse and charge up the next mountain it is the only thing i know how to do and i love to lot to prove. >> talking to us here yesterday. i wonder what you thought of the
interview itself, which was remarkable and the takeaways from the shutdown, itself. >> listen, kudos to you. interesting. i did tweet about it it is so rare we see two executives come on and say, we screwed this up. we didn't get it right we take the blame and we move on bottomless well of need to win that's what we know him as and despite questions early on said, if anybody is going to figure it out, it is going to be these two. it didn't work they didn't put a lot of money of their own in there, which is interesting. it doesn't mean that it hurts
any less it may have been as little as $5 million from katzenberg and $8 million from witman. fas nagt >> maybe not the last time we've heard from them. quick break here back in a moment this is decision tech. find a stock based on your interests or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity.
the nation's corporate earnings picture protecting investments finding new potential. team coverage and analysis all day. watch and listen live. we can't wait to hear about mattel tonight >> not just barbie but american girl which had not been good, having a great quarter and hot wheels this company is doing really good this is the time to stay at home and play with your kids and i love it. positive story about the
pandemic >> will be an interesting holiday season inventories are lean have a great day, jim. >> see you tonight >> good friday morning, everybody. welcome to "sqwawk on the street." as we said earlier the dow is trying to make the best of a downed week. all eyes on earnings and the debate last night, covid levels and stimulus talks >> a lot of things, covid risk, economy, president trump and former vice president biden highlighting two different visions for the nation in the final debate and intel earnings that saw their data revenue down
7% early approval for remdesivir we'll keep an eye on that. not just sectors but the degree of yields up 86 basis points the debate still getting processed this morning kayla has a lot to say >> a lot to work with last night, a fast paced 90 minutes, robust debates on the pandemic, minimum wage, state of the economy. steve will be fact checking some of those talking points. president trump's closing argument is that his competitor is a career politician who profited from his time in the office biden tried to forecast himself as more empathetic the two outlined their view on
the nation, in particular the nation under covid >> we are about to go into a dark winter and he has no plan and no prospect. >> president trump, your reaction he says you have no plan >> this isn't going to be a dark winter at all. we are opening up our country. we've learned and are learning about the disease. >> both candidates evered familiar talking points and some statements offering pause. >> for trump, this answer on migrant children separated from their families >> they are so well taken care of they are in facilities that were so clean >> for biden, looking to convince swing voters in fraking
friendly pennsylvania, he won't unwind the energy complex, it was this comment >> it has to be replaced by renewable energy over time over time. i'd stop giving to the oil industry stop giving them federal subsidies. >> that sentiment from biden that republicans say will be meaningful campaign foder and could help some down ballot races and if there are voters left in the presidential race. talking about that more now on the debate and what is driving the morning's action is head of government affairs good to see you. last night like many events, this was like a roar shock test for each party it was a late night, early morning. i'm curious what stood out to you as potentially material to
that middle ground >> that was right. it was a test on the general left you came in liking trump, you left the debate liking trump the same for biden the whole oil and gas debate, specifically fraking there is a reason president trump went after former vice president biden on that. they went back and forth to make sure they were clear lines i think they both came out okay on that. >> did you think there was anything else that moved the needle on say, minimum wage, regulation or potential stimulus that stood out to you? >> on stimulus, it depends on what position you are coming from we are in the middle of
full-bologna leks season i'm not sure there is a victor there but each side gave both side the reason to vote. vice president biden because he's in the lead right now i think trump did stop the bleeding from the last debate. >> 47 million people as of yesterday have already voted, which is fairly extraordinary. doesn't mean we'll have a record turn out fewer people will turn out on election day who is undecided at this point >> that's a great question i don't think very many people are undecided. turn out for those voting early. and on election day operations who has the better ground game
and getting out more voters. i know all polls point to biden winning narrowly or in a major way. all he has to do is point to all the stays won in 2016 wisconsin, pennsylvania and pennsylvania. he is laser focused on pennsylvania noncollege educated white men 2.3 million who did not vote in 2016 but are registered. 1.3 million other voters who did not voechlt the trump campaign is really focused on that. it is really about who gets their voters to turn out >> and quantityive analyst
arguing in that net move at least in some of the battlegrounds like pennsylvania and north carolina >> you are right florida as well. in some of those states, republicans have doubled registration, which is normally the other way. this election cycle, they've been laser focused between newly registered voters would miss today due to the storm. >> finally, the u.s. recorded a record of cases. does that keep covid on as top issues if so, what does that favor?
>> two top issues are covid-19 and the economy. they've already said they trust vice president biden on covid-19 and president trump more on the economy. the problem is that covid-19 literally trumps the economy as the number one issue with that, if you look at seniors. the only reason we are talking arizona and florida. those that believe that with a 6-1 margin is that the coronavirus is greater than the economy. >> we've seen biden support among seniors and women jumping. it is all about who turns out, who shows up we appreciate your time. head of government affairs at invesco. shares of gilead are up. getting approval this morning for the anti-viral
meg has more for us. >> the fda fully approving remdesivir before, it just had emergency use authorization since may. this is the first drug for covid-19 to get that official approval from the fda. specifically for patients in the hospital showing remdesivir shortens recovery time. you are seeing the stock up 4% this morning it had been up even more last night after the news folks pointing out it is interesting timing to get the approval just last week, we saw the results from the solidarity trial. showing that remdesivir had little or no effect on the effect on hospitalized covid-19. you see people questioning why
the fda gave approval. a tweet of how they could get fuel approval without the mixed data does it work early late any time 0 those are the questions today but still wall street is looking at the growth. we all hope covid-19 is not with us for the long term back to you. >> yes, we hope that as we head to break. look at shares of intel. weak results particularly as regards its data center group. down to that quarter next. "sqwawk on the street" is back in two
let that sink in the cloud business is strong pfrp c sales still overall home users that might want the laptop those workhorse laptops and road warrior laptops are not selling at that level. that segment just not canceling. looking beyond the question of how we'll punt in on the decision of the chips. whether we'll out source or get their own technology in line enough to do it themselves
>> looking at a couple of notes. lack of clarity on the 7 nanometer chip you raised it there, provided to bridge the gap you don't know that decision likely to come sure to ask about that in the next hour. so much of that fundamental story about intel, process and design is being reshaped and brought into question not only because of this pandemic environment and the shift in demand before that hit, that was already carried over this issue on manufacturing and how ready intel was. >> auto was coming back, they continue to push on some of those ai, artificial
wear your favorite costumes and the fun never ends. come get your halloween on, happening now at universal orlando resort. president trump and former vice president biden clashing on jobs, the economy and more in the second and final debate of 2020 steve liesman joins us now with a fact check of some of the evening's biggest claims steve, where to start? >> from taxes to tariffs to jobs, the candidates debated issues that will have a profound affect on the economy for years to come. let's start with a back and forth on a nationwide m$15 minimum wage
>> when we do that, employers will fire. >> there is no truth that when we raise the minimum wage businesses go out of business. >> finding that boosting the minimum wage to $15 million will result in 17 million people getting higher wages and millions becoming jobless. about an equal number will be pulled out of profit on trade, president trump said china is paying, they are paying billions and billions of dollars. most economists agree the tariffs lion the importer. it is worth mentioning, it doesn't appear biden would be quick to eliminate these on the china trade deficit causing the deficit with china to go up, not down in fact, the trade deficit fell by $2 billion and hit an
all-time high in 2018. president trump repeating he has the best african-american unemployment rate. while this is true, it needs some context fell 6% under obama and fell by 2.5% to an all-time low before the pandemic now it is up 4.2% points before he took office how much he was responsible for the decline to the record low and recent surge and if biden could do better is among the things voters will decide in 11 days back to the tieless wonder >> it looks good on you. i'm looking forward to seeing you back in person >> will be great
look forward to it all >> let's get to a little more now on taxes and stimulus talking taxes you've done so much work on it. starting with the president. how he could possibly say he's not releasing taxes because of an audit still give me your take on that, is it really ponl? >> no. that's not possible. the audit never would have stopped him from releasing taxes if he wanted to. that has always been utter nonsense i can't imagine what it is other than that he doesn't want to release them and given that the "new york times" has unveiled the largest part of what is in there going back two decades why not. the times reported he paid $750. he's claimed it is through many
legitimate tax breaks, which is correct. the real estate industry has acorn copia of tax benefits baked in to the tax code going back to the first one, only getting better in the 2016 revision he must have his reasons >> we both know a lot of wealthy people in high tax and cities trying to figure out what a biden presidency would mean and whether they would leave if there is no elimination on the cap. what is your take on where things stand in terms of the tax rate between these >> tax proposals at this time are so fascinating they've been overshadowed by bigger issues in the campaign starting with the pandemic biden has put out pretty detailed comprehensive plan for
revising the tax code with the majority in the senate and house. he is proposing two major changes that many have long advocated. one is to treat at the same rate which harkens back to the reeg an era and eliminate never paying capital gains taxes whether holding on until you die and giving it to heirs tax-free or holding on like trump and flipping into other properties and claiming this so-called like kind that he wants to get rid of specifically, he is talking about raising taxes on people
who earn more than $400,000. lowering modestly for those who make less. the tax increase is in the low single digits. it will hit those high-income taxpayers. may be offset by the repeal of the state and local tax. he has talked about getting rid of that. i don't know that he's firmly pledged to do it that would benefit high income tax earners in areas like new york and new jersey. the biden plan is that he will cap total itemized deductions. he doesn't want them ever to be worth more than 28%. he may be putting some of that back into the alternative
minimum tax. >> a lot of those high earners work on wall street which have migrated to the biden campaign he has raised $58 million to trump's $14 million with the president accusing former vice president of being too cozy with wall street. they haven't supported a candidate since 2008 when you talk to people in the finance industry, what is going through their mind now and why they are making a break. on the face of it, the reform was a benefit for declines of wall street and wall street itself i'm hearing two main issues. first of all, the unpredictability
the not knowing what is going to happen the lack of articulated plan they are basically they are much more globalist and in support of free trade than trump has proven to have been. they don't like that more broadly, there are a lot of people there they are wealthy and successful. they are concerned about the praying of the economic safety net. particularly, the unrest that occurred with black lives matter and look at it in a broader sense for us to have a healthy and broader economy, there has to be a sense everyone is sharing in it and that has been an issue over the last four years. >> you raise the issue of globalization. we don't stop and understand the riches that has been showered on the industry as a result to pull
from capital pulls around the world and what that has meant is. >> here that would continue. i do think wall street was a little short sighted there has been much more efficient global allocation of capital. most would agree have promoted growth globally and here in the united states wall street at the juncture would close and siefen off fees in the process i think they were a little detached to the unrest causing
the dislocations particularly in industry america and for the less educated work force forced to compete around the globe, which is why we see both biden and trump. trump was the first to recognize there is an appeal to american protectionism. no question wall street has thrived over the breakdown of barriers >> a lot are concerning moving to austin or miami >> that is to say, when you put a national tax in, you can't escape it except by leaving the country. i don't see that happening in new york and new jersey had a lot to do. that creates this geographic competition and the national taxes do that. >> understood. thank you.
>> jim stewart >> coming up after the break, investors still hoping for a stimulus deal. the imusstul, market economy and more when "sqwawk on the street" continues. how do you find compt are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities? for nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in companies making a difference because we see value in doing good. talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly with calvert.
over a week away early voting bringing a lot of people to the polls including vice president pence and his wife karen who cast their ballots this morning >> astronaut kate rub inns cast email absentee ballot. and in texas, 109 year old cast her ballot when she was born in 1910, women were not allowed to vote great story. i'll send it back to you isn't that an amazing story. great. >> unbelievable. shows you how much the country has changed in one person's lifetime >> you got it. let's bring in byron wien,
good morning >> good morning. >> i'd love to talk about the state of the race with the caveat that i believe now 50 million people have voted. >> looks like biden has a clear lead and maybe will be the victor maybe not as many points as the poll suggest. may sometimes people are secretive. i think biden will pull it out >> the market would benefit short term from a stimulus but later next year, liability starts to creep in about higher rates. i've seen suggestion that fourth
quarter of 21 could be difficult. how do you look at projections that far out >> i don't know how you go that far out. there is uncertainty about next week my view is that the market will probably rally on the out come i think the popular perception is that trump is more favorable for business than biden is it may not turn out that way the top two priorities for biden is getting the virus under control and and creating jobs. things that are less favorable to the market will be secondary to those two objectives. if we get those two first, they could be good for the market the recovery are pretty strong
so far i'm impressed with how fast the economy is coming back. i think we are only about half way back i do believe we'll have a higher level of unemployment than we are used to. those that are closed during the virus scare are not going to reopen there are at least 10 or 15 million people in the united states that have lost their jobs and their jobs aren't going to come back. we'll have to wait for entrepreneurship to start up again and reemploy those people. i think the recovery will continue at a gradual pace i've described it as a square root, a v at the beginning and we are still in the v and then tapering off in 2021 and
hopefully back to something close to normal in 2022. >> you are potentially describing under each of these candidates biden would be getting under control by getting the virus under control and trump has a more pro growth economic agenda. which do you think is ultimately better over the course of four years. i think biden has a better chance of bringing the country together i think biden will reestablish more constructive relationships with our foreign allies and deal more effectively with inequality, with climate change.
i think those are positives to the market i think that we are not going back into a bare market. we are not going back into a recession i think equity returns will be modest and won't rise much with these these expectations should be modest >> i was going to ask you about rates. the curve is steepest since march. we've seen some of the home builders start to give back their well deserved range. you don't see the wealth scare or see us starting to ponder the
inflation. >> no. i don't think inflation will stay as low as it is or interest rates will stay as low as they are but i don't think they'll rise much. i expect some increase in both i still think this will be a low inflation environment. >> i don't know how you are going to top 2020 in terms of surprises. >> first, i've got to survive 2020 in terms of surprises reviewing the list i had no anticipation of covid-19, 2020 wasn't a terrible
year most of the ones i got right for different reasons than i intended november and december are crunch time for the surprises i promise you, they'll be out on the first business day of january they won't be out until then i'll be tinkering with them all the way until announcement date but i'll be continuing to work with them right now. >> continuing to leak a couple like you do. >> continue to have a good weekend. >> i wish i had a few of them down, carl, so i couldn't leak them i wish that was my problem today. right now, i'm trying to wrestle with what the 10 surprises are going to be.
>> thank you, byron. we'll see you soon byron wien buying a lot of toys for your kids during this pandemic you are not alone. mattel up and forecasting even more growth going into the holidays ynon kreiz on mad money 6:00 p.m. eastern we are back right after this hey, dad! hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like... like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge,
health care is one of the best performing sectors higher by about half a percent gilead sciences among the leader up nearly 2% after the fda approved its drug remdesivir as an approved treatment against the coronavirus. and align technology hitting an all-time high today. back with more "sqwawk on the street." ♪
american express results missing expectations by a wide margin on lower credit card spending kate, what do we know? >> american express reporting 40% less than a year ago thanks to a slow down in consumer spending during the pandemic net revenues also dropped from a year ago but better than expected amex also increasing reserves for credit losses. i just got off the phone with amx cfo who told me the quarter was more about rebuilding growth
and momentum the next phase is more about getting back to prepandemic levels for that to happen, he says consumer travel really needs to bounce back. he said people have a need to travel, especially after lockdowns but it will take some time to recover. some bright spots, nontravel and entertainment spending slightly up that usually makes up the majority of amex volumes corporate card spending took the biggest hit. that could take years to recover. still only about 6% of their business retail spending also strong for the year 32% year over year driven by online spending. the cfo also mentioning customer retention. people are still willing to pay that $500 fee even without using travel rewards the point system is now more towards rewards and take out
also spending more on customer acquisition, new card member acquisition up 40% on the year back to you. >> kate, i'm curious about the reserves they are putting aside. amex has and delinquents acies are at th lowest level where do they come from? >> they say it is pristine it is a cautionary move. the they're not doing it for any reason other than to guard against some of those losses and he mentioned strength in the consumer so we'll see does it seem more preemptive than anything. >> thank you let's move on now. bob iger going from managing -- he doesn't manage it, mickey mouse to milk, the executive chairman and former ceo at walt disney investing in perfect day
and joining the board of directors. the first nondisney board seat since he joined apple's board back in 2011 no longer on that. ryan pandia is the perfect day c co-found eastern ceand ceo. you know you're not going to be on with us if you don't have mr. iger on your board you're doing great, it seems but i'm curious, give me background here as to how you got really one of the most prominent businessmen in the last 20 years to make a decision to join your board >> yeah. absolutely so of there are two things we were introduced to bob iger a month and a half ago through investors. two things here are bob is like many of us, looking to spend his limited time working on things that are bettering the world on sustainability, better, cleaner food system. things that really matter. of it's that and the fact that, you know, we're a young company. we're young executives my co-founder and i started the
company out of college at age 22 we've been able to bring in partners and investors out of singapore and hong kong and we're on a really good trajectory working with the largest food and dairy companies in the world all appeal to bob's desire to get into mentorship and helping startups like perfect day to achieve our ambitious goals. >> so it's your expect thags that he is more than a board member and i assume an investor that he is going to be helpful in terms of mentoring you guys and giving you advice? i guess as many many board members would choose to do in a private company. >> yeah, i can't speak to the actual time involvement that bob will be able to give to the company. it is our hope that we can do more than just build a company with strong financial returns but can in fact build something that truly is globally beloved and recognized brand and something that truly moves the needle for doing the right thing and becoming a strong global
corporate citizen. >> the most well funded protein fermentation company in the world. you raised $460 million from investors. you have one product right now in a meaningful sense, our first product isn't the ice cream as it is the protein. what we're doing is developing a way to make the same protein identical to what is it in cows milk and doing so through fermentation, animal free process that is sustainable, kinder, greener and hits the consumer trends. we commercialized ice cream. by the end we'll have three strong partners in the ice cream category and next year we'll move into the cheese category. the category is growing and so exciting in terms of the animal-free side of what consumers are looking for. one of our customers started this year in 2020 by next year they're confirmed to be an 5,000 stores so it's unbelievable the amount of growth and excitement that we're seeing from companies big and small to make a new kund inf
barrier possible. >> what are the entry? people want to participate in the dairy free space what is it -- is it the ip here? what gives you an edge >> yeah. there is substantial ip for anyone who wants to get into the space. we also have a 6 1/2 year head start. without boring with you the scientific details, theres a lot going on behind the scenes to actually make this possible. it's not simple. it's not easy. but we've been able to do it and anyone who wants to get into this category now, the most credible way to do this is work with the ip or buy our ingredients. >> i'd like to check that out some time. maybe we'll make an appointment after the pandemic thank you very much. >> thank you >> you're welcome. >> the week started out with that 48-hour deadline speaker pelosi proposed. it will end without a new stimulus package the president and former vice
president biden hit this in last night's debate >> nancy pelosi doesn't want to approve it, i do >> you're the president. >> i do. but i still have to -- i think that's one of the reasons we're going to take over the house because of her she doesn't want to approve anything because she would love to have victories on a date called november 3rd. nancy pelosi does not want to approve it we're ready, willing, and ready to do something. don't forget, we already approved three plans and gone through including the democrats in all fairness. this one she doesn't want. it's near the election because she thinks it helps her politically. i think it hurts her politically. >> all right mr. president -- >> the republican leader in the united states senate said he can't pass it. he will not be able to pass it he does not have republican votes. why isn't he talking to his republican friends >> the speaker was asked about the republican votes yesterday and said it's not my job to get
republican votes >> yeah. and the president himself said that he would get the republican votes if he could only get through what he sees as the roadblock of speaker pelosi. the blame game is going in every direction here i think it's interesting to note that, you know, both parties want to keep the ball in the air. they want to say they're negotiating in good faith and making progress. although, the progress that has been made on day to day basis has been smaller and smaller as the negotiations have progressed as you mentioned, it is -- chances are slim to none that this will pass or reach agreement before election day. mcconnell focused on the nomination of amy coney barrett. he'll begin the floor process at noon todavenlt he warned the white house don't fold to what pelosi is demanding. focus on this. don't i did viewed the republican party, carl >> right we'll keep our eye on. that of course, larry kudlow this morning saying the ball has not moved forward much today on the other side of this break,
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good morning, it's 8:00 a.m. at intel headquarters in santa clara, california, 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla markets coming off the opening highs as we see a yield take a leg higher s&p 500 trying to hang on to a few points here. a couple things working against the bulls,