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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 3, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EDT

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right now. >> announcer: life from new york whereby where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box". >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernan this morning. the celebration still going on in chicago this morning. the cubs giving their fans reason to cheer, beating the cleveland indians 8-7 in a dramatic 10-inning world series game seven. the cubs coming back from a deficit to win their first world championship since 1908. i only saw the first couple of innings and went to sleep and happened to wake up, wanted to check, thinking it was all over, and it wasn't over, there was the rain delay, and i got to see the 10th inning and i got very excited. and we should thank jay pritzker
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for your -- >> cubbies. >> see this on the back? >> i have the whole thing. i felt like i should use it. >> i couldn't -- i'm not going to tell you who you remind me of. >> wloho's that? >> hillary, when she comes back to new york and starts wearing the yankees hat. now she's back to the cubs. >> for a day, i can celebrate with the cubs -- >> no, you can't! i can celebrate with multiple generations of people who have been -- >> no, no, no. you have no right to celebrate with the oldtime chicago fans. you're not a fan. you're not a fan. >> why do you say i have no right to? i enjoy it. i can support them. >> all right. >> this is a huge -- >> i would never do that, because of the reds. i could never do that. you've got to wait for your team. but you know, it's up to -- you're like hillary. how did i get that around it. >> always, always. >> there's something else i was thinking about this. >> yes, sir? >> it is exciting. i remember, when they were down 3-1, like, the cubs weren't --
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and then i remember the game i went to cincinnati, that was against the cubs. and i was right near where the on-deck and all the cubs are like 8 feet tall. and everything time they came up against cincinnati pitching they hit a home run. this is the same team i saw score 12 runs. and i thought, if these guys, if they break out -- and they finally did. and i saw the home run, i knew it was a home run the minute it jumped off the bat last night. i've got to admit, i was into it, too. build never like abandon the reds for a cubs -- but i did abandon the bagel. >> let's get you caught up to speed on what's going on with the markets right now. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. you're looking at a bit of a mixed picture. dow looks like it's going to up higher, s&p 500 also higher by about a point. the nasdaq looking to open down about 14 points. we'll talk about why that might be. and overnight in asia, the dow
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was closed for a holiday. and take a quick look at the price of wti crude. we're now sitting at 45.55. a steady slide downwards. >> no one thought the cubs could do it when they were down 3-1. and i think, remember, the nate silver odds, trump -- 25%. but then holman yesterday said, you know what 25% is? flipping two heads in a row. that's not that crazy. and he said the other thing, would you ever play russian roulette where there were -- if there were six chambers and you put two in and spin it, would you ever take that chance? >> those are bad odds. or good odds depending -- >> if it's one out of three, may brains are -- >> if that's the game. i thought you were equating this with politics? >> no, no, not everything's -- >> you mentioned nate silver! >> he does sports. >> oh, you were talking about nate silver's sports -- >> no, but i was saying that at
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the beginning of the week, carl quintanilla, the famous carl quintanilla tweeted out that the trump odds and the chicago cubs' odds were identical to the decimal point on, i think, monday. i'm not saying it's an omen. anyway, here are the big stories we're watching today. we're awaiting a decision on the brexit from the high court in the uk. we'll decide whether the government can invoke article 50 without a parliamentary vote. and that article starts the two-year time clock to a complete brexit and if the court rules that a parliamentary vote is required, it would a setback for prime minister theresa may and the british people i added that in. but for theresa may. as parliament would gain negotiating influence on the terms of the brexit, any decision is likely to be appealed by the losing side. european equities at this hour, they're mixed today. seven straight down days. and we're below 2,100.
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and take a look at the currencies. currencies this morning, i saw the dollar was not as strong as it has been. we've got 110 back on the euro. and the pound's all the way back to almost 124. it was down almost at 120 earlier. also on today's agenda, we'll get the bank of england's latest policy decision at 8:00 al eastern. in the u.s., weekly jobless claims and third quarter productivity and labor costs are both out at 8:30 a.m. that's followed by the octoberism. september factory orders at 10:00 a.m. as for earnings, the big action will come after the close today. we'll hear from starbucks, activisi activisi activision blizzard, and cbs. and the s.e.c. is looking at wfg violated rules in investors. and we're watching shares of
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fitbit, the company's third quarter falling short of sales guidance for the fourth quarter also missing analyst estimates, hurt by soft demand and production issues related to its new flex 2 wristband device. the company stock falling as much as 30% after-hours. it's down nearly 70% year-to-date and dare i say, it's just another gadget maker. >> and i was talking about it over there at the top of the show. only interesting in the fact that it was a recent ipo, but it's a $2 billion company and everybody, you know -- >> can i put this in the category sort of gopro. come out with a nice idea, it works for a while, and everyone else does either the same thing or -- >> it's not a $2 billion -- it wouldn't be in the top of the ten-point on the journal. anyway, facebook, though, is, and should be. the market cap there. >> 240 billion?
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300 billion. are we at 300 billion already? >> we were. let's see if we're going to stay there today. no, we've got to get to wilf, what's the ruling on facebook. do you have news on brexit? >> the high court has ruled that parliament does have to vote before article 50 is invoked. this is big news, a big surprise and the pound has rallied significantly off the back of it, as a result. this is a blow for theresa may and her government, who hoped they'd be able to do it through crowned prerogative, through the executive, just making a decision without a law being passed. just to give a bit more context on this, it doesn't necessarily mean that brexit is off the table. in fact, it almost certainly doesn't. likely to be appealed anyway. we'll get another decision on this by the supreme court. that scheduled for december. whilst the result itself is a big surprise, it's unlikely that mrk ps will now decide to
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outright block brexit. but it does shift the balance in terms of hard versus soft. it's unlikely the government will be able to pass a law invoking article 50 without outlining its stance of how it plans to negotiate. and now that will probably have been to be a softer position than a harder position to get that vote passed. i'll add a couple of other points. the conservative party, theresa may's party, does have a majority and of course, that will help them in terms of winning any vote. and march still would be on the table in terms of when article 50 could be invoked. but it has to go through a parliamentary vote first if this high court ruling is upheld by the supreme court. we've seen european equities turn around significantly, as well. clearly a softer stance on brexit, beneficial. the pound up on the back of this surprise decision from the high court if the uk, guys.
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>> why wasn't this all sort of known how stld work before hapd? it seems so -- they're making it up as they go along. so they get the vote from the people and they didn't know at that time whether it still required a parliamentary vote or not? and how do the people said? you said it's still going to happen, but if i were the people, i would feel like, what was that all about if it's up to you, anyway? >> it's a very fair question, and i guess you would have to question the government for not clearly outlining legal proerd procedure if the decision went this way. and they were hoping for a result that the previous government didn't do enough planning as to what a brexit would look like if the vote went against them. that has been a crisp throughout. in terms of the minor decisions that have been made since and these major ones. >> we've also heard that the eu has the ability to overrule uk court decisions, too. could they have come in here, if
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it went the wrong way, with this, and said, yeah, there has to be a -- >> this is a very interesting point. because, first of all, this is going to go to the supreme court in the uk, which as well will broaden it out. this was firstly decided by three judges, this decision today. if they overturned it, those backing for a parliamentary vote could appeal it further to the european courts. that seems like the equivalent of trying to break the space-time continuum. either way, as i said, this is something we expect to change the tone of the brexit negotiations. that said, you know, this will have to be outlined by the government, once they get article 50 invoked, that sets a two-year ticking clock. so as long as that still gets invoked, brexit will happen. that's a focus by march. >> we would never do that here. we would never have an election that would then be decided by the supreme court, i don't think. >> that'd be crazy. >> andrew's still mad about that
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one, remember when it was stolen from al gore. >> hanging chads. >> the legitimacy of that -- democrats would never question the legitimacy of an election, right? >> nope. nope. >> wilfred, you know, your co-anchor is coming in. she's on her way right now. >> i know, i look forward to watching "squawk box" with her, joseph, yourself -- >> we do, too. well, we don't look forward to watching. well, we're kind of right here, actually, living it. living it. thanks, wilf. facebook reporting better than expected results. the social media giant reporting profit of $1.09 a share, 12 crepts above estimates. revenue also beating the street. the stock is up. no, it's down $8. the guidance dragging it down. facebook said it can't maintain its current pace of growth. and starting in the middle of the year, it will stop showing users more ads in their news feeds, which has been its strategy to hike revenue growth. joining us now for more on the company's third quarter is victor anthony, managing director, senior analyst at
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acxiom capital management. just reading what people say. facebook now expects a much smaller contribution from this important factor, from the future. how serious is it? >> well, they told us this in the second quarter results. that piece of the guidance they gave yesterday is not new. >> why is the stock up 7 -- >> well, it's a -- just to be clear, they told us that the ad load would not be a significant component of revenue growth starting in mid-2017. this time around, they told us revenue growth would decelerate significantly. but the street has already factored in significant deceleration. >> is it about the ad load or something else much more meaningful? >> it's the ad load. and they guided for that in the second quarter. and the street was already there. they had already factored in a 20-point deceleration in 2017. the second piece of that was really the expense guidance, which is really why i think the stock was taking a drubbing. they got it for an investment
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aggressive in 2017, but we've seen this before, in the third quarter of 2014, they guided for an aggressive investment in the year 2015. i think the number was 15 to 17%. they came in at the low end of that. so they always guide aggressively with expenses and beat that expense guidance. i'm expecting the same, but notwithstanding that, you've seen the impact or the result of these investments not just from facebook, from amazon, from google as well. from facebook in particular, those investments have led to 1.8 billion people coming to the platform on a monthly basis. 1.2 billion people coming in on a daily basis. those investments have yielded fruit, so i'm expecting the same as well. i'm not too concerned. i think the pullback is a gift for investors who have been on the sidelines. >> a gift, an opportunity, it's on sale. do you believe that?
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>> no, i do not. >> it's a cheap stock, relatively speaking. >> how many times have we been disappointed in the quality of online advertising. i've never done anything based on an ad i've seen online. i'm still questioning whether anything -- click search, obviously, is great. does this other stuff even if you know what people are interested in and you're able to customize it for what they want on facebook or something, is it going to be the advertising model for the future. >> to a large extent, and the fact you haven't done it yet with -- >> actually, it doesn't mean anything thact i haven't done i. i've had peep do it for me. you're right. >> there is a secular shift from -- >> 300 billion, though, for some -- >> 350 -- >> for people sharing photos or something? >> they're spending a lot of time on the platform. they're engaging on the platform, they're buying things --
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>> when did you use it? >> yesterday. >> doing what? >> seeing what's going on with my circle of friends. >> looking at their vacations? >> just looking through the thing. sometimes i get messages so i've got to respond to the messages. >> you get messages a bunch of other ways? >> on e-mail, on twitter, sometimes on facebook. >> you don't need another way of getting messages, do you? >> you check. sometimes you see things on instagram and you want to check again on facebook. >> since you're in the community of all the chicago cubs fan, did you get a lot of -- >> i have not been on facebook this morning, but let me check right now and i will tell you -- we have a couple of great friends in chicago, so i bet they're going to have something on their feed this morning, i would imagine. >> president and the first lady? >> different friends. >> okay, never mind. other stocks -- oh, this is you. victor, thank you. >> that was legitimately funny, by the way. >> you're getting more and more -- it's only been six years, but you are starting to --
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>> i'm starting to learn -- >> it's more just -- >> you're accustomed to -- >> hearing it and not thinking about -- it is. it's working. it's working. >> i just think i'm sort of -- i've become accustomed ed ted type of humor. now it's back on me. other stocks to watch today. wynn resort's third quarter revenue falling short of forecasts. traffic congestion is making it harder for customers to get to that new resort. separately at whole foods, fourth quarter profits beating forecasts while revenue was in line. same-store sales fell more than expected, but the company says those declines have been easing lately. wloel foods also doing away with its dual ceo structure, making co-founder john mackey the sole chief executive. and aig soared. aig increasing its stock buyback program by $3 billion.
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and finally, a quick programming note. aig ceo peter hancock will join the game in a first on cnbc interview that will happen at 9:45 a.m. eastern time. >> the s&p 500 posted its longest losing streak in nearly five years, down nearly seven straight as of yesterday. the market now going to pivot away from the fed as of december and turn its attention now to the friday jobs numbers, which obviously affects the december meeting. also, next week's election, joining us now is drew maddust. and chief investment officers for equity directors, which has $350 billion under management. drew, one thing i like is sort of the outrage and the faux sort of, that would never happen, when you call the fed political in some ways. that's the last thing we ever need, for the fed to be political. and they would never be political. but then everybody just says, we knew the time was right now and
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fed said it yesterday, yeah, all our ducks are in a row to raise, but we can't do it now, we're going to do it in december. we don't do it before an election. that's not being political? >> and rosengren basically said the same thing in article recently. what's the point of just taking it. if there's an extra bit of risk somewhere, why not just wait? most models will tell you waiting one month or two month in one direction wouldn't make a difference. >> but these one month and two months have added up to three years. >> you know where i am on that. we would. healthier if we were higher. but the fed disagrees with me and that i have had their finger on the trigger. >> if they know conditions are right for december, they're not assuming any improvement to do it in december. they're currently right for -- and they could actually go the we're way. and they won't be able to do it again. >> and they boxed themselves in a little bit, too. they've talked about, it doesn't
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matter if there's a prmess conference, but they need to explain why they waited a year between hikes. if they're going to wait a year between rate hikes, they probably need to do it at a meeting where there is a press conference. >> steve, if the fed basically in a tightening phase, but some day, maybe, and with -- we had a pretty long recovery here, is there a reason to buy stocks now that look like they are teetering a little at 2100 on the s&p? is this the time to buy? >> i probably should be declaring victory and moving on right here. we came down to the level literally last night. but i don't think it's the time. there's a lot of uncertainties right now, joe. >> i think there's a near-term downside. >> when we get through the election, are the uncertainties gone? they're not gone, when we get through. >> i don't think they're through, even on the election, there's a lot of outcomes here
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that, you know, the market wants to wake up wednesday morning and say, now we know. and it's if it's trump, we don't really know. >> we know if it's hillary clinton, it's five to seven investigations going on. >> exactly. we may be in some sort of a crisis mode, who knows. but -- so i think it's going to be hard for the election to solve people's problems. you've got the jobs number on friday. hopefully that's in range. but the economy's softening up. >> it is? that's my question. we don't have much time. that's why i keep interrupting you -- not the only reason. >> i've never seen you. >> the main reason. the earnings season we've just been through and the prospects for global growth, do those make you want to buy domestic stocks or not? >> the prospects for global growth are not great right now. >> what about the earnings we just went through? >> the earnings are okay, but look at facebook last night. as an example of our issue, we think earnings are way too high. the estimates are 134, we're at 125. 125 is still not bad. and you know, with i think once
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the market settles down. but i don't know how you get too excited into probably some earnings downgrades. >> especially because it's based in the -- the multiples are based on where interest rates are. >> and the interest rates are backing up -- >> if they're going up, we might be fully valued. who knows -- we've been in -- >> i did think rates are -- i think rates are kind of getting close to the high end of the range here. i think this whole scare about inflation and all that is probably a little bit overdone. >> 180 on the ten-year, is it near the high? >> for this cycle. 1.5 to 2% is not a bad level for the ten-year. there's global pressures on rates. i just came back from germany and you can see it out there. every time our rates go up a little bit, they move their money over. >> see, lebeau could wear that. >> he could. >> and he talks like he's from chicago. you don't talk like you're --
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>> i like chicago. >> okay. >> i'm just -- i'm supporting -- >> celebrating -- >> you had something that said sorkin on the become and it's a cubs thing and you thought, why not? >> figure, you know. we should thank jay pritzker. >> you did already. >> five days remain until the u.s. presidential election. john harwood is in ohio speaking with the leaders of the influential freedom caucus. his take on ohio voters and the future for republican congressional leadership is next. back in a moment. coming up, legendary recording artist cher has had a number one hit in each of the last five decades. now, she's sounding off on "squawk box". >> you seem to be all over twitter, all the time. >> i like to be able to make myself heard, even if no one is listening. >> that interview, straight ahead.
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remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. who's with me? i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. ♪ ♪ one, two, - wait, wait. wait - where's tina? doing the hand thing? yep! we are all in for our customers. ally. do it right.
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on what's at stake for the wearings jersey bar here, i would have heard divided stretch.
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happy >> does it have a pull on you? >> not for cleveland. i was hoping for chicago. okay, but you have to be a fan really to wear a jersey. i wouldn't do that to the reds. i'm faithful. would you ever wear a north carolina jersey if they won the title? it's impossible for us to do things like that, harwood. it's impossible. >> reporter: no, i would not. >> yeah, you don't have -- >> reporter: but it expect to be wearing a duke jersey next year. >> you wouldn't even wear a tie that -- you wouldn't even wear tie that that's color, i don't think. >> reporter: no -- well, sometimes, i do. the tie isn't the issue. but no, i mean, it's a good point. i went to college in north carolina. it's -- i root for the acc, but it's hard to root for the heels. but that was definitely some 24
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karat magic in the air last night for both teams, really, that comeback in the eighth inning. and what donald trump needs this year is a couple of those home runs in the bottom of the eighth that tied the game chapman. because if you take a look at these national narrowing, in t real clear politics average, they are narrowing under two percentage points in favor of tlk, 45-43 when you round it, but donald trump needs some help on the electoral map. take a look at the battleground map. we have new state polls yesterday and they show hillary clinton is holding in states she needs to hold. look at wisconsin, a state where donald trump wants to break through. a new poll yesterday showed her leading by six percentage points. quinnipiac had polls that had hillary clinton up by one in florida. that's not much of a lead. she doesn't need to win florida, trump does. in north carolina, she was up by
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three. in pennsylvania, she was up by five. here in ohio, donald trump was ahead by five points in that new poll yesterday. he needs to win the state of ohio. it's critical to his rust belt strategy, but it's not going to be enough. and what hillary clinton deployed yesterday was president obama and his plus 50% approval rating to both suggest in one e-ma interview that hillary clinton's e-mail issue was an honest mistake that had been overblown. and also to cast donald trump as a threat to democracy itself. here's the president in north carolina. >> i am not on the ballot, but i tell you what, fairness is on the ballot. zee decency is on the ballot. fairness is on the ballot. justice is on the ballot. progress is on the ballot. our democracy is on the ballot right now! >> reporter: that is a president who very, very much wants to be
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seceded by a fellow democrat to try to preserve the legacy that he has built so far. five more days for donald trump to turn it around. >> we've talked earlier, john, the cubs at 3-1 had a 25% on nate silver and to the decimal point, the same as trump's chances on monday, so i don't know. we'll see. >> well, exactly. and you know, the cavaliers did it last year, so we've now had two big major sports events in which the team that was down 3-1 won the series. so people be a little less sure about how it looks mid-point in a series. and the same could be said of elections. >> i keep -- we keep thinking -- because it's weird, you think, 65-35 or whatever it is today with nate silver, oh, 65! but it's like flipping two heads in a row is 25% chance of doing that. and that happens all the time!
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>> where it really comes home, t"the new york times" upshot pol puts it into the language of an nfl field goal kicker. and recently, it's varied between hillary clinton's chances look an nfl kicker making a 29-yard field goal or a 33-yard field goal. when, my team won the game against the bengals last week. anyone who's had that happen to hum them is sensitive to that. >> those people in london giving us a chance to show them what football is like and sit there for four hours and it's a tie. we might as well watch soccer. >> we should have had a second overtime, actually. >> i'm glad i didn't watch that whole thing. the nfl has got to come up with some other way to do it. a 33-yard, straight left off the
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guy's foot. coming up, a look at steve jobs' tenure at pixar. lawrence levy will join us next. an important message for americans eligible for medicare. the annual enrollment period is now open. now is the time to find the coverage that's right for you ... at the right price. the way to do that is to explore your options. you can spend hours doing that yourself ... or you can call healthmarkets ... and let us do the legwork for you - with no cost
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translation? why invest in average? ♪ we're going to talk about that. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we've been playing a lot of different chicago music. i ordered a bunch. futures at this hour -- you've heard that song before? >> yes, i'm surprised you would even -- >> i'm not wearing a jersey. i'm happy for chicago.
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bill murray, i'm happy for chicago fans. i am. news breaking in the last half hour, the uk high court has ruled that parliament must vote to trigger brexit negotiations. that's considered a blow to prime minister theresa may's brexit plan. parliament now has to approval the triggering of mechanism 50, that starts the clock on a two-year window for exit negotiations. checking on the british pound that's rallying on this. when i walked to wilf, i said, they didn't know how they were going to do this when they put all these rules in place? now they're figuring out -- they're flying by the seat of their pants on how to do this. that's not the way to run an entire continent. that's not the way to run the eu. >> and people gave us a hard time for talking about it, remember right after the vote, all of these were going to google to understand what it means and how it works. i'm not sure anybody understood exactly what the implications
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were. >> they put in article 50, but i don't think they really thought -- >> okay. let's talk books this morning. this is a great new book. a new book out this week, former pixar ceo lawrence levi tells his story in the part of the rise of the late steve jobs. levi tells his struggles and success at the animated classic. the book is called, "to pixar and beyond: my unlikely journey with steve jobs to make entertainment history." i read a galley of this thing over the summer, sort of by happen assistance. and congratulations, because it really was -- there's not a lot of books where i sort of fall in love with the book and this is one of them. i learned so much about steve jobs and about pixar and the culture of silicon valley and it's done in a very personal way. and i guess i'm sort of endorsing it, but i don't mean to be a spokesman, but it was such an enjoyable book. and sort of like i said -- i wrote a column. it's sort of like a pixar film. it puts a smile on your face when you're all over.
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>> thank you for having me. i'm happy for you to be a spokesman. >> let me talk about steve jobs. we talk about apple all the time today. and we talk about, what would apple be today if steve jobs -- to the extent that you can distill what it is about steve jobs, is it fair he has this halo around him? what was it like working with him? >> i think it is fair. steve was absolutely brilliant, almost like a genius. so working with him was an incredible experience. whatever we did or talked about, he always pushed you to another level. always pushed you. >> impossible sometimes? >> sometimes impossibly. half of the things he said were sheer genius and half of the things he said were a little crazy. so you had to work with that. but we had an amazing collaboration that was really rich. >> did he trust people -- i think he trusted a small circle of people.
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and i think that became really important. our relationship was based on it. >> how much was it about the technology and understanding that or the story. >> well, at pixar, definitely both. steve and i came to appreciate the value and the power of story, without knowing or understanding that. we learn eed it and we realized how important that was, and a lot of the success came from respecting that. >> do you think he changed over time? the reason i ask is, you sort of met him at a low point in his career. i mean, pixar, people don't appreciate, has now in a way financially, by the way, was the ultimate success for him, even more so than apple. >> yes, by far. by far. when i met him in 1994, i think he had a string of like four failures. the apple -- the original apple macintosh, the pixar imagining
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computer and had put $50 million into pixar and had nothing to show for it. and ten years later, that was worth $12, $13 billion. >> that is pretty interesting, it's the underlying story. because it's not what you think. you think the technology of pixar and the animation is what does it. but let's say you do that without a story. the content of the content makes a difference and the technology just delivers the content. >> it's amazing. >> and toy story is one of the greatest stories, i think, and the jokes and the characters and. actually, two and three aren't -- i don't like two. three i loved, though. and then you go to "the incredibles" or -- i love them all. "a bug's life." i love them all. >> it was great. >> "finding dory," i didn't like. the octopus driving a truck. >> how do you think about pixar
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now as a unit of disney and how do you look at other firms like dreamworks, animation, that came afterwards. >> as a unit of disney, it's been an incredible success. the key to that acquisition has been to keep pixar as pixar and in a way, allow pixar to enable diz nsney animation to become anything like pixar. pixar is still the same pixar. that's the beauty. >> and final question, did you ever exist in apple once you went back? >> i did not. much to the regret of my wife, i might add. >> lawrence, thank you. congratulations on the book. >> he's smiling. >> she's right over there. she's not that mad. >> she's not that mad. >> she forgave me. >> how about "ratatouille." >> it's an amazing list of movies. has there been a single flop? >> what was your favorite one? >> i think "finding nemo"? did you like the new one?
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i saw it and i cried. >> i didn't like that one. >> i did. i love "finding nemo" and i love dory as well. >> it starts out with his mother dying. >> that's true. >> tough. >> my kids didn't like that. >> they're little kids. i really like the part where the mother -- >> i know! i couldn't believe they went there. a pleasure. >> thank you. coming up, a couple of morning movers to watch, straight ahead. plus, with andrew's interview with music legend, cher. if you had to pick, would you call yourself a gypsy, a tramp or a thief. if you had to pick one? >> me?! >> that's coming up next. here's a look at the futures.
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time now for the executive edge. we're going to start with a couple of stocks to watch this morning. avis budget' third quarter rental results topping forecasts on high rental volumes and increased prices. the company now expects full-year profit to come in at the lower end of previous estimates, due to softer demand in europe. and the americas, also, 21st
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century fox reporting better than expected first quarterly results, driven higher by cable channels including fx and fox news. the company's movie studio saw higher revenue, despite the box office disappointment of "independence day: resurgence." in the meantime now, to the business of music. she's had five number one hits on the charts starting with "i've got you, babe," when she was just 19 years old. >> that was with sonny. >> that was with sonny. today cher speaks her mind to more than 3 million twitter followers and i spoke to the music legend yesterday at fast company's innovation festival. >> you've been doing this for a very long time. >> 52 years. >> and so what i wanted to know is, do you ever plan to retire? >> i plan to retire when i did the farewell tour. i really planned to hire. because it seemed appropriate. i was old. and it seemed appropriate and then i don't know, something happened. something always happens.
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this is what i do know. there will come a time when i can't do it, and that scares me into doing it. >> you're one of the few people who has a -- you know, one name is the brand. how did that happen? did you think about that? >> what do you mean, like, cher. >> so my family, i've always been cher. and then i had to children by two different fathers. so i took both last names. and i thought, i don't like either one of these. so i went to the court and said, i want to change my name to cher. the judge said, well, could you be recognized by the majority of people by cher? it says cher on my passport. >> that's all it says? >> yeah. >> did you think about it as a brand? >> though, i just thought of it as getting rid of those names. >> we're going to have a lot more from cher coming up, including her take on twitter. she's got 3 million twitter followers and uses emojis like
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you've never seen. are you an emoji person? >> do you think i'm an emoji person. >> i don't think so. >> i'll tell you with the new program, it comes up a lot when i type up a name. >> and you see -- >> and i have done it a couple of times. >> we're going to talk emoji, a little pinterest action. she has a lot of views about what's going on in the digital world. we talked about spotify, apple music. >> and you let her go off on politics. we might show you just a little bit of that. >> i couldn't have interviewed her. it would have been ugly. anyway. coming up, the major league baseball season is over. but major league soccer playoffs are underway and the new york city football club is in contention. just its second year in existence. and president john patrikoff will join us next. this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour.
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all right. wells fargo at this point -- we have wells fargo trading down about 19 cents on the session today. let me just get a quick look at -- okay. here it is. news just in. in an s.e.c. filing, the company
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says it raised its reserves for possible litigation losses from the previous $1 billion. that's related to the inquiries in the practice. that the s.e.c. has now joined those looking into the bank's sales practices issues. many times we just might do a random stock and just say, let's just check -- >> what's going on. >> no. let's just check wells fargo and then we move on. it's just a sort of random walk down wall street. >> which is where we were going. >> we're going to take maybe a little less of a random walk into the world of sports this morning. in major league soccer. it's on the rise. according to mls, more people are watching matches in 2016 than in any of the last 20 seasons with an 8% uptick from last year. joining us this morning is john patrickoff. his team made the playoffs for the first time in its two-year
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existence. we're thrilled to have him this morning. good morning to you. >> thanks. >> what's going on with soccer? >> i thought the cubs waited a long time. so two seasons, really? wow. you're hanging in there. >> new york city football club in its second year of existence. we're hosting our first playoff match at yankees stadium. yankees are 20% owners of the club. also owns manchester city in the uk and australia and japan. >> how many people will be in the stadium? >> we've been averaging 27,000 per game this season. we expect 30,000 on sunday. we really i think are on the upswing and kind of establishing ourselves as a mainstream sport
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for americans. >> took awhile, but it's happening. >> exactly right. i think there's a lot of factors contributing to that. one of the great things to happening, interest in soccer globally is on the rise. that's good for us in mls. if you're a fan of the sport, traditionally you pick up the paper in the morning. you turn on espn and what you see is typically the main sports. soccer now is more accessible than ever. if you're a fan, you want to watch it all the time. >> how is it going to be in the future about bringing even more of the stars from europe? we have to do that? >> we're very fortunate. we have incredible stars from europe and a number of teams around the league. our captain is spain's all-time leading goal scorer. frank lampard, a chelsea legend. just scored his 300th career goal with us. patrick sriier ra was a captain of arsenal. we've got some stars. i think for us and across the league is a mix of those big
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names who later in their careers are in the prime of their career. >> change the dynamic in terms of making it a global audience from moment one. meaning do you have people in europe now watching? >> absolutely. >> in a way that's not the case for other sports? >> absolutely. mls now in 40 countries. you're hearing our fan base is from all over the world. we have people tuning in at how people are streaming games and people are watching them. we get incredible e-mails from fans all around the world. facebook followers and social media. just making it much easier to be a follower. even if you can't be at the game itself. which is the reality for most sports. most fans won't get to come to a game. it helps a lot. absolutely right. and all of our mobile devices. >> talking about great investments, you ready for this? first valuations for teams in 2008 was $37 million.
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that's a huge increase. >> so there are 20 teams in the league now. two more come on next year. los angeles football club. and potentially david beckham. it's growing. >> thank you, sir. >> hope to see you guys sunday. keep an eye out. it's on national team. fox sports 1. keep an eye on it. >> thanks a lot. coming up, we got to talk facebook shares. we'll talk about it in a moment when we return.
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what are you doing? getting your quarter back. fountains don't earn interest, david. you know i work at ally. i was being romantic. you know what i find romantic? a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. let's get out of that water.
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is facebook losing friends? the company warning of an add slowdown. the stock slammed in the after-hours session. a full breakdown of results and
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what to expect at the open this morning. it's all straight ahead. the battle for the white house is in overdrive. just five days until the election and races in battleground states are tightening up. john sanunu joins us to discuss. and cursed no more. >> this is going to be a tough play. bryant. the cubs win the world series! he makes the play! it's over! >> the cubs are world series champs. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and sara eisen has made it. futures now, they've gained a
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little ground but not in the nasdaq. the nasdaq has been diverting more and more from the dow. or disappointing results before. it's been diverging a little bit. and the s&p is indicated up a little, but closed below 2100 yesterday. and you are looking at a live shot of the future -- no. of chicago this morning. the chicago cubs are 2016 world series champs. cubbies won game seven of the world series in an 8-7 nail biter where they got tied up, then there was a rain delay. but at least it ended. it was hard for people. i didn't stay up. >> i couldn't sleep and then woke up not knowing it was a rain delay so i got to see the end. >> it ended a 108-year drought.
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and cub fans packed the streets of wrigleyville. the bars, too, surprisingly. and the crowd erupted when that final out sealed the win over the indians. the cubs were up for most of the game. then the indians tied it up in the eighth to go into extra innings. after a tenth inning, the cubs pulled it out. and that magical number 108-year drought ends this morning and the plans for a parade are in the works. >> you know about the political connection with this? i learned this from chuck todd on "meet the press" last night. apparently game seven when the national league wins, that means the democrats win the election which has happened in history and when the american league wins it's good for the republicans. >> we can only hope. >> apparently there's a long history of that. i'm surprised you don't have that covered. >> no. the other one is maybe actually that has something to do with the election is the stock market
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leading from august to the election. >> which does not bode well for the incumbent. >> yeah. we used to have the football indicator where if the nfc team won -- how did that work? >> typically when the market goes down, it's not usually a result of who people think is going to win or potentially win. >> no, but his point is it signals that the economy's not doing so hot. >> i suggest what happened in the last week might not be that. >> then there's the approval of the incumbent president as well. the other thing people point out the cubs weren't supposed to come back 3-1. and carl quintanilla said it was the same as trump winning. now the cubs did come back. >> now the 30% chances of trump winning is the same of the patriots winning the super bowl. >> i think it's 32%. >> 32%. where do you look? >> all these superstitious --
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>> nate silver isn't superstitious but probably as accurate as that. >> here's what's making headlines this morning. a london court has ruled to trigger article 50 that starts the window for formal brexit negotiations. that ruling which puts a crimp in brexit plans sent the pound shooting higher to a four-week high against the dollar. wilfred frost will have more on this story in just a few. we're also watching for an interest rate decision from the bank of england. the bank is expected to leave policy on hold. wells fargo has increased its reserve for possible litigation expenses to $1.7 billion from a billion. that news in an s.e.c. filing. also confirmed reports that the s.e.c. has joined the list of those looking into the disclosure and revamping of the bank's sales practices. >> let's talk facebook this morning. falling 7 % in the after-hours session. reporting $1.09 a share on
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revenue. not sure people were focused on that. the cfo warning the number of ads on its sites could come down significantly. here with us is the senior internet analyst at nomura. help us try to understand what's happening here. some people say it's this ad load situation which brought down the guidance. other people have a view that it might be about just how much capital capex they're spending. >> let's just sort of clarify. there isn't specific guidance. and the company didn't bring down guidance. it's all mincing the words of how the ad load flattening out for 2017 was communicated. so there are three big for advertising. one of them is advertising load, the other one is numbers of facebook users and per user. and the other is ad demand which is reflected in pricing. so what the company has said is that ad load will be a meaningfully lower contributor
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of ad revenue. right? so last quarter i think that that word was more like accordingly. so everybody's woird there's a slowdown in '17. what we would say is models already plan for this. if you look at 2016 growth, street models in the mid-50% range. then they really come down 20 points. that's pretty meaningful in my opinion. >> that was already there, you're saying. >> that was already there. now there's the second thing you touched on which was expenses and the company said that 2017 would be an investment year. that is also what they said going into 2016. and i think what's going on is they're accelerating or building out their infrastructure for recruitment. so i think that's ahead of a big engineer hiring plan. remember this company is going through basically a product transition. they're going from static images in your facebook feed to video.
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that requires a tremendous pivot in terms of the infrastructure of the organization, the sales organization. and so is it tougher to get excited about facebook when they're going through a position and they're not seeing upward earnings revisions because of some of these comments that i menti mentioned? yeah. i think it's a very nervous market right now for all the reasons you guys are talking about rightly so on the political side. and also in the tech market, it's a nervous sort of risk off market. i right now think it's wise to look at earnings revisions. so if i look at the big internet companies and how -- what they've reported, i want to look at what estimates for next year did. and google has had an upward revision. i think those trends will tend to continue. i tend to think that alphabet is easier to own here than facebook. which to be fair earnings estimates, i didn't take my numbers down. but they didn't go up either. because of some of the cautionary commentary.
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>> which way do you think the stock is moving? sounds like you're going to want to own it. >> first of all, i think it's a huge secular winner. they continue to take ad budgets from traditional media. nothing was bad about the quarter. they beat estimates. it's just from here is there acceleration and do they beat estimates from here? i think it's probably trade in a range. i'd probably rather own alphabet if i'm rank ordering my stocks. >> rank order the top three or four. the whole group. >> yeah. i think it would be -- i think it would be google and then amazon and then netflix and then facebook. >> on facebook, though, they have other growth levers they can pull. instagram, what thesapp. they're also going after video hard. trying to take tv ad budgets perhaps. so couldn't they keep that growth -- we're talking about a company that's been growing revenues over 50% the last few quarters. >> i totally agree. they have weapons for
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modernization. and on the call with management last night, that was a question. when do you get to the next phase of monetization of messenger, for example. and you mentioned instagram which contributed to the company. but still a very small percentage relative to core facebook. so i think what you're saying is right. i do think it's worth saying that this is a company that's still very i think concerned about the user experience. so the ad load question is more about don't want to barrage and deluge with tons of ads because that could actually have an impact -- >> so why don't they charge more per ad? >> what they charge advertisers is something that is an output of the auction. so it's driven by the market. it's a market-driven output what the price per ad is now. you're touching on a great point
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which is if ad load flattens out in '17 and let's say the png or the cmo is growing their social media budget next year, whatever it is, then really revenue shouldn't be affected because revenue would more be driven by price than volume. i believe that. i think that'll be what happens. i want to get back to engagement. that's what i think -- some people are concerned about whether snapchat comes in and intercepts some of the usage amongst younger teens. the numbers on daily active users were awesome. but i think that's the hesitancy on behalf of mark zuckerberg to really just paint the town red with ads because you have competition in the social media space. >> what's happening to instagram? >> instagram is doing very well. you can argue some of the product decisions look like
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snapchat. but instagram stories are doing well. and i still think it's a small piece of the total but i think it's growing as a percentage of the mix. >> thank you. >> you bet. concerns are fueling about the state of cyber security in the u.s. the government publicly accused russia of meddling in the race for the white house by hacking democratic political groups. i don't know whether -- that's not resolved yet. just this week announcing the same russian group could be exploiting a windows flaw. and that threat, tom lathen, a top provider of network security. we go way back to that company. it's a different company entirely than it was from 10, 15 years ago. mostly security now? >> well, we're the same company
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and, you know, we're still making websites be fast and delivering high quality video, but we have developed really good security defenses for the major websites to defend them against the ever-increasing defense. >> so the cloud changed everybody. basically now you do cloud networking as well as security solutions in the cloud. that's opened up a huge amount of business for you in other companies, i guess. >> growing 46% year over year. it has a tremendous future. i think there's a lot of awareness now about the vulnerability. especially as you see all these devices that are coming online with the internet of things that aren't really secured. and they can be exploited by folks that want to do bad things. >> so by the time we get to where everything is connected and we have the internet of things, are we going to have our cyber security up to speed?
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i think of some of the scenarios you could point with the denial of service in the internet of things and it scares me. i don't want to go there if we're not ready securitywise. >> it is scary and we are going there. our job at akamai is to make it safe. now you need your security on the cloud platform. you need it to be out where the attackers are and the bots and devices are where you can defend against the attacks. >> what are the chances that our security gets tested on tuesday? do you think that's a target for these elements that would like to disrupt things? >> yeah, sure. any time you have a major media event or political event that
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can draw the attackers out, it'd be a lot of people online watching news. you know, obviously around the election there's a lot of passion around the election. so we would not be surprising if we saw elevated attack levels then. >> and it's been pointed out it would be voter registration machines. what would you do if you really wanted to mess things up? >> well, i don't want to mess things up. i want to keep things from being messed up. one of the important things is actually having good communication be sure that the correct messages are reaching the public. we don't want websites being corrupted. we don't want news sites being taken down. >> all right. so we've got our fingers crossed. akamai has been a pretty good stock. i don't know if we showed the
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chart but you're doing all right there. the low on the stock is under $40 we're up just near $70. mr. leighton, we appreciate it. >> thank you very much. i think we have a great future. >> all right. when we come back on "squawk box," whole foods making some structural changes to the leadership ladder. the high end grocer has been struggling as it works to attract customers. the stock is up this morning. we'll have details after the break. and the countdown to christmas is already on as companies are starting to hire for the holiday rush. we'll look at where the jobs are coming in. straight ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. tomorrow on "squawk box," a special your money your vote jobs friday. the october employment report is set to be released. we break down the numbers, market reaction, and what the numbers could mean for the next commander in chief. predictions, presidential politics, and the fed's next move. "squawk box" starting at 6:00 a.m. eastern. profit from it.
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. take a look at the futures right now. bit of a mixed picture. getting a little bit better on the nasdaq. had been down just a little bit before. dow looks it would open higher. s&p 500 up about 6.5 points. and the nasdaq now looking positive for the first time in a little bit here. a little over a point.
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a london court has ruled to start the window for formal brexit negotiations. wilfred frost joins us from cnbc headquarters. he's got more on that story. >> good morning. so the uk high court has ruled the government does not have the power to invoke article 50 without a parliamentary vote in a landmark surprise decision. this has led to the pound and european markets rallying. whilst this does not mean brexit won't happen, it orders the likely imambulance away from hard brexit to soft brexit. may may have to soften to win a vote. members of parliament are in favor of maintaining access to the single market. lord justice thomas said that the brexit question is purely legal and also irrevocable and rejected the government's desire to use the crown prerogative. will appeal to the supreme court which will be heard.
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thus is still possible. the ftse down in light of the stronger pound. labor party has released a statement already. the leader jeremy corbyn says they expect the decision to leaf the european union. putting jobs, living standards, and the economy first. which highlights the fact that that's coming from the government's opposition. the brexit does still mean brexit. which is why the pound is up. but 1% not recovering all the gains, the losses, of course, since june. >> a softer brexit. thank you. we're watching shares of whole foods. same store sales did fall more than expected. but the company says those declines have been easing. whole foods also doing away with its dual ceo. investors like the news.
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stock is up about 2.5% from the premarket. coming up, inside david bowie's art collection. hundreds hit the auction block. a look at what he owned and the prices that will be on some of the stuff. "squawk box" will be right back. man, i'm glad aflac pays cash. aflac! isn't major medical enough? no! who's gonna' help cover the holes in their plans? aflac! like rising co-pays and deductibles... aflac! or help pay the mortgage? or child care? aflaaac! and everyday expenses? aflac! learn about one day pay at blurlbrlblrlbr!!!
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david bowie's private art and estate will be put on the auction block by sotheby's. could fetch northwards of $12 million. the three-day sale will be -- will kick off on november 10th. a couple pieces worth noting, air power by jean-michael badqiat. maybe there's a bad badquiat.
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that's estimated at $4 million. interior otherwise known as mrs. mounter is expected to fetch and witness by peter lanyon has an estimating price at $400,000. i don't believe that's witness? no. that definitely looks like a witness. doesn't it? andrew, does that look like -- >> abstract. >> oh! no wonder. okay. okay. i got it. glad you're here. >> also there's a new david bowie -- i heard you were an emoji guy. there's a david bowie emoji in the apple upgrade. >> wow. good to know. they should do a cher one. she is all about emojis. we'll talk about that in a moment with cher on the air. >> yesterday i put in the word and an emoji came up and the
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wo word disappeared and emoji appeared. i wanted the emoji to be there noex to the word. >> what was the word? >> i don't remember. just something -- >> i want to know what brings up your emojis. >> i can find out. i can't remember. >> my mother speaks to me in emojis. you work on that. >> you go ahead. coming up, the holiday season is fast approaching and the number of help wanted signs are going up quickly. we'll take a look at who wants to be fully staffed for the holiday rush straight ahead. and as we head to break, have a look at u.s. equity futures. improvement in the last hour or so. dow futures up now 47. can we break that seven-day losing streak? s&p 500 futures up and nasdaq under pressure down three points. we'll be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. among the stories front and center, a busy morning for
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economic numbers. an hour from now we're going to get third quarter productivity and initial jobless claims. later on the ism non-manufacturing index as well as factory orders. also a half hour away from the latest policy statement from bank of england. a busy day ahead for after the bell earnings. we'll get the latest numbers from companies like activision, cbs, gopro. october job cuts hitting a five-month low in the latest layoff report. john challenger is here with us. good morning to you, john. tell us about what's happening here. >> well, we saw 30,740 job cuts in the month of october. that was down 31% from the month before to five-month low. in fact, it's the second lowest month of the year. and then it's also down from october a year ago by 39%. >> so should we think that the economy's getting better or worse? >> i think it suggests that employers right now really are
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holding onto their people. their expectations certainly aren't declining for most businesses. you take those layoffs when you just need to cut because of the revenues that are falling. we did see cuts in areas like the computer industry, led the way with 4,792. generally i think it suggests that businesses are taking a breather. kind of a wait and see attitude as they move into 2017. >> just explain this to us. we saw energy at 17,000 then restructuring at 17,000. >> energy is an area that did cut some jobs in the month. it was the second leading industry sector area for cutting jobs. and yet it's only cut about 8,000 jobs over the last three months. that's a big drop from what we saw when over 50,000 cuts were
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announced. it still leads the way. there were some cuts in october. so there's always worry that are we really bumping along the bott bottom. >> we're also showing the top five reasons. there's one line that shows 17,000 for restructuring. below that it's 30,000 for cost cutting. what's the difference? >> there's not much difference. these are just the terms that companies use. we see cost cutting sometimes as they move operations, say, from areas where you see higher wages to lower wage areas. we did see some of that in the month. restructuring often means a company looking at its businesses and saying maybe some of our less profitable lines were going to move out. >> that sounds like a euphemism for cost cutting. >> no question. >> how correlated are you lately your numbers to the monthly jobs report that we get from the government? tomorrow we're going to get the october employment report?
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does your number suggest it's going to be a disappointment? >> no. this would suggest that the number should be fine. doesn't suggest a jump in the unemployment rate. companies are holding on. so if anything, it's a positive rate. because there isn't much pressure on companies to lay people off right now. >> great. john, thank you. >> okay. go cubs from chicago here. >> congratulations. >> you're in the right place there. the holiday shopping season fast approaching. there are just 51 days left until christmas. and right now retailers and logistic firms are already scrambling to hire seasonal workers. our morgan brennan joins us with the holiday hiring crunch. how does it look this year? >> it's looking tougher and tougher for a lot of companies. this is crunch time for being fully staffed for the holidays. unemployment at 5%. it has gotten tough to find
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seasonal workers. take a look at this. these are just some of the firms making hires. we've got amazon looking to add 120,000. u.p.s. looking for 95,000 workers. you've got big demand from all of those retailers. so everyone's competing for the same talent. they're doing so from a segment that's actually seen some of the strongest job growth. thus wage growth. and you can actually see that in the labor department data for weekly wages for workers that make $15 an hour in full-time jobs. that has jumped 4% in the third quarter the same prior. it's an upward trend expected to show up again in that october jobs report. so that's causing companies to start searches sooner. saying employers began the recruitment efforts a full month earlier this year than just a few years ago. many are offering new perks. we've got them designing the recruitment websites. both are stressing the opportunities for these positions to become permanent.
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we're seeing a similar situation from amazon as well. you've got u.p.s. offering some returning bonuses. more flexible hours to compete with. not only these rivals but with a share economy too. as christmas inches closer, can these companies actually get enough workers? because based on everything i'm seeing, we're looking at double digit increases in e dme-commee. even more are looking to staff warehouse jobs, everything that's tied in e-commerce rather than stores. that's really where you're going see the growth. >> i wonder if the qualifications are different for an amazon hiring than a macy's, for instance. it's harder to find. >> yeah. and so that's of course one of the questions. >> which do you think is harder to find? the amazon one? >> maybe the amazon one. >> and that certainly has been a discussion. because with a lot of these
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warehouses and distribution fulfillment centers, they're not necessarily close in populated areas. they're harder to get to. and that work is not always the most enjoyable. you don't get the perks of maybe discounts on clothes, things like that. >> good point. >> they have to get more competitive. >> does amazon offer an employee discount? >> i'll have to look into that. you're not going to get a clothing discount the way you are at macy's. >> usually a third off is the employee off for like a may sis. bloomingdale's, that kind of thing. >> i would hope like prime membership they would get. >> free prime membership? we should find out. employee benefits of working at amazon. >> so you have only maybe a 300% markup on what you're buying. >> at may sis. >> most places. it's unbelievable if you're in retail. well, you don't -- have you paid retail? >> i will only go to the sale. >> you wait until the end of the season. >> i don't buy. i don't shop. i don't. i have to sit down.
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just the other day i was in bendals. you ever been there? >> yeah. >> there was a lady sitting there. i was like i need that chair. she finally got up. >> you're one of those? >> yes. i need to sit. there's something in the air. i'm getting woozy. we had time to kill. just fives to go before the election. we're going to hear from john sununu. this sununu is the former governor and former chief of staff to president george h.w. bush. that interview is next. check out the futures at this hour. bouncing back a bit today. up 53 points. still down on then nasdaq. the s&p up five.
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now that fedex has helped us simplify our e-commerce, we could focus on bigger issues, like our passive aggressive environment. we're not passive aggressive. hey, hey, hey, there are no bad suggestions here... no matter how lame they are. well said, ann. i've always admired how you just say what's in your head, without thinking. very brave. good point ted. you're living proof that looks aren't everything. thank you. welcome. so, fedex helped simplify our e-commerce business and this is not a passive aggressive environment. i just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great job. what's that supposed to mean? fedex. helping small business simplify e-commerce. ♪balance transferot to othat's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card.
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whatever kind you're searching for, lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one that's right for you. just search, compare, and apply at ♪a one, a two, a three percent cash back♪ prge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines
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to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world. lrts. with five days left until election day, donald trump and hillary clinton are vying for new hampshire's critical electoral votes. john sanunu former governor and former chief of staff to george h.w. bush is with us now. we missed you a couple weeks back, governor. i can't remember what -- >> we had a technical problem.
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you know. >> like tv? >> that's what you get when you don't buy retail. >> that's right. it says here you are a supporter of donald trump. what's the history of that? your son is not. is that right? >> no, john is supporting trump. look, we're good republicans. we all made a commitment to support the nominee. and hillary clinton has made it easy for the family to be supporting trump. >> so h.w. bush and w. bush and jeb bush are bad republicans? >> let's just say they carry the burden of a lot of personal attacks out of the primary. >> they do. >> i understand that. this is a time for republicans, though, to come home. and when you look at what's going on, i think you're going to see it. >> you do? and we've had quite a two-week period here. >> quite a one-week period. >> you know, "the washington post" poll before comey said
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anything on friday, there was a ten-point -- he made up ten points there. i'm not sure where we are. then you got comey saying -- but then each day there's more wikileaks. and brett bair was reporting last night on the clinton foundation that that is in high gear. i don't know if any of my polls. 40% now. 45%. we just pulled ahead a good poll out of boston. one ahead in new hampshire. i think republicans are coming home. look. i think people are misinterpreting comey though. i think everybody's hoping for a smoking gun. there's not going to be a smoking gun between now and the election. what comey did was rip the scab off this that encompasses everything the clintons get
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involved with including the whole democratic party. look what they did to the dnc when they really tucked it to bernie sanders in the primary. you got the brasile stuff out of cnn. you got the money with the clintons and then trying to influence the deputy director at the fbi by contributing to his wife's campaign. we've got the pay for play. the guy running against my son for governor has gotten caught refusing to rebid a tainted contract. and then the press finds out he got $45,000 in contributions just before that. the democrats are immersed in pay for play stuff across the country. people are feeling that and they're sensing it's because the clintons have imposed this culture of corruption on their party. >> the comey thing is -- it's kind of interesting to watch. and it's a rorschach on how you
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view it. so many things that it almost looked to me as if comey finally succumbs to some of the facts of the situation. it's just -- in light of a lot of recent developments. it's like maybe that wasn't the right move back then about the grand jury and giving immunity and all those things that happened. he was almost like the weight of that became too great. it almost had to be reopened. >> well, i defended him in july. it would have been a very tough call, i think. even though he went through that litany of doing it then. i think he said we're going to give the clintons one more chance and we'll keep looking and if we come back and see this threshold, if we see this even better threshold for them crossed then we're going to go forward with this. i think the biggest problem the country has right now is being afraid of a clinton victory because she's picked such a
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lightweight for her vice presidential candidate. >> but it would be -- i mean, we do remember the first term of bill clinton. the first term had stuff. but that would be. if you believe reports, there's five separate investigations going on. you could have a president elect that was indicted for cgi issues. >> it's been a quarter century. remember the magnificent ten straight cattle future plays? you know how impossible that is. you know the game people use to put it that way and giving them the winning trade. this is exactly what the problem is. it is a lifetime of doing things right up to the line and quite often crossing the line to produce personal enrichment and frankly political power. and i think that's what everybody's seeing. it's not a smoking gun they're looking for. it's sort of the straw that
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broke the camel's back. >> you know, it's kind of -- like the trustworthy numbers for hillary clinton is r now -- i don't know what they are. >> negative four. >> but she's still got 48% -- i can't remember how it works. even democrats are, like, the number is up pretty high. but they're still voting for her. it doesn't matter. they have to, right? and this is the weirdest election. because the only person that probably could lose to hillary might be donald trump but definitely the only person donald trump probably could beat might be hillary clinton. because of -- >> you've defined this election beautifully. and what donald has to do and he has been doing it is talking issues. and he's focusing on obamacare. and the beauty of that is this is the season when everybody's getting their obamacare increases. the country -- look. if he just convinces the country he has the temperament to be president and he has been doing
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that, i think, exceptionally well the last ten days. he will beat her on tuesday. >> governor, do you think that your values as a republican align with his? >> i think donald trump is growing as a republican in this campaign. i gave him a hard time in the primary. i wasn't sure where he was. i had a chance to talk to him a couple of times on issues. and i'm pleasantly surprised that when i talked to him about obamacare, he understands what has to be done. when i talk to him about the problems of the tax code destroying jobs, he certainly understands that. he even understands it's more than just trade. that internal overregulation is a problem. so he's come a long way in getting the details. i think generally his instincts align with mine. and now the problem that he has is to communicate to the public
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what he's been able to communicate to me privately. >> what would you say to investors who are increasingly nervous about the uncertainty factor? the wild card? he's threatened nato. he's made some immigration promises that are harsh, threatened a trade war with china, imports, and calling them a currency manipulator. would you suggest this is just part of his deal making bargaining? or should investors really be fearful about these things? >> what investors should be most worried about is what made it easy for me to be supportive of donald trump. hillary clinton is moving us further down the slippery slope to socialism. free college care, single payer health care. free college tuition, single payer health care. all these expansions of programs. the country can't take another doubling of the budget deficit and the debt that we have.
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and hillary clinton's two biggest supporters, her favorite surrogates are one an avowed socialist bernie sanders and the other non-personally avowed socialist elizabeth warren. trump defined the fact for me he can have a very solid presidency when he picked mike pence for his vice president. and i talk to pence quite often. this is a guy who understands the system and this is a guy who trump has been listening to. i think it's a great team. that this is a team that can move the country forward. and i think investors really have to worry about the fact that the economies of the u.s. and the world are so fragile that if we don't get any indication that we're not going to break the bank on our budgets like obama did, i think things could fall apart. >> so you have no predictions over -- what day is it? is it thursday? >> it's thursday. five more days. >> things happen like every 48 hours. >> right.
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>> he's on message though. she -- you know, she -- if i were advising the clinton campaign, i don't know. the miss universe pageant of '95 when he's talking about obamacare? are they out of stuff? i mean, they got to get something better than that bringing the miss universe around with them on the stage. >> miss universe plus screaming. i think -- i really think she's made a horrible mistake. >> she's in arizona too. i don't know. andrew, you got to talk to podes podesta. don't send him an e-mail. >> let me tell you. everyone laughed when trump went to michigan. just send one of your reporters to walk into one of the big auto factories and ask them to talk to the guys on the floor. you're going to find 95% support for trump in a segment of michigan voters that don't show up in the polls because nobody -- everybody assumes they're going to be democrat. >> all right, governor.
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thank you. >> thank you. >> i don't know what to tell you about your son. >> but he doesn't buy retail either. >> all right. good deflection. thank you. see you later. >> thanks for having me. coming up, stocks to watch including credit suisse switch under pressure ahead of the open. futures right now seeing a steady build here. dow up 44. s&p up 4.5. nasdaq futures just barely negative at this hour thanks in part to facebook. coming up, voters in five states will be heading to the polls not only to pick a president but to vote on the legalization of marijuana. none bigger or more important than california. if it passes there, it could open the flood gates for other states. a look at the politics of pot is straight ahead. right here on "squawk box." will your business be ready when growth presents itself? american express open cards can help you take on a new job,
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or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. find out how american express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at find out how american express cards and services what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14.
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what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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welcome back. let's take a look at stocks to watch this morning. credit suisse shares are under pressure this morning even though it did report a profit. the stock down almost 5%. avis budget beating by 14 cents with a quarterly profit of $2.47 per share. and the car rental giant's revenue was essentially in line. however, its full year earnings guidance is below forecast.
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fitbit with quarterly profit of 19 cents a share. but the wearable fitness device maker's did fall short. as does the quarter and full year outlook. check out the move on that stock. down almost 30% here in the premarket. an old toy is getting a new luck. >> love this stuff. we play with it all the time. >> okay. play-doh d play-doh. okay. >> i got two kids. >> anything you cut out into a snippet. play-doh is going digital with its new toy to life app. hasbro's touch app -- wow. the touch app scans your creations and animates them in a virtual world using the camera on your iphone or ipad. you can play the game for free with any can of play-doh. or buy the $40 shape to life studio set. you know what i like? i like the smell.
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>> you like the smell of play-doh? >> i do. i think a lot of people do. >> do you sniff it? >> he wants to know if i've easte eaten it. i can't say for certain. when i was 3 i probably did. >> if you do do you know what? it stays the same color throughout. >> it's a morning show. >> all right. >> so you're saying -- >> yeah. you know what she's saying she just said it. coming up, the bank of england -- >> throughout. >> i just put it out there. >> we've got the announcement when "squawk" returns. here's european markets ahead of that. and later how big data can help hillary clinton and donald trump in the final race for the white house. we'll talk about that. plus cher all coming up in the next hour. "squawk" returns in a moment. you're making money now, are you investing? well, i've been doing some research. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay.
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uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy? (dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not the way the world works. well, the world's changing. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab.
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facebook loses likes. shares of the social media giant under pressure on concerns about an ad growth slowdown. new this morning, the british pound is surging after a court rules uk lawmakers must vote to trigger brexit negotiations. all that plus turning back time with cher. >> there wasn't branding when i was young, really, you know. it wasn't like it is today.
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you just didn't have a bunch of people come in, polish you up. >> i sat down with the legendary recording artist and no topic was off the table. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on -- what are you? leisman's here. i'm joe kernen along that makes sara a thief i guess. sorkin is here. sara eisen is that. >> who are you? >> i'll be cher. singing gypsies -- i asked you earlier and you decided you'll be a gypsy. you have to pick. choices aren't great. two u.s. economic reports coming up this hour. weekly jobless claims and
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productivity and costs. the futures this morning up 46 now. and the nasdaq has been pairing its losses. down less than a point even though we had the big selloff. and then s&p i think is just barely above 2100 with a gain this morning. breaking news right now. bank of england just releasing its policy decision and as expected here it left key rates unchanged. that vote was unanimous. the bank also says the brexit vote has had limited impact on the economy so far. the pound was already surging this morning after we got that decision that it is now going to have to go before parliamentary vote. this decision to invoke article 50 leading to bets that will look at a softer brexit versus a harder brexit. the pound up 1.4%. today's other top stories and there it is. the london court ruling the british government must launch
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formal brexit talks. juncker said he will be speaking tomorrow morning at may's request. facebook shares are trading lower as joe mentioned. the company beating on the street on the top and bottom lines. but investors are focusing on the companies warning of slowing revenue growth in 2017. andrew, never a good thing to hear from a cfo that the growth rate will grow, quote, meaningfully. in the spotlight again with more details around the sales practices issues. wilfred joins us. >> so wells fargo has revealed in a filing that the s.e.c. is also investigating the company adding to a list of existing investigators and admitted wrong doing may be required.
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the resolution about standing investigations could materially adversely affect our results of operations and financial conditions. may increase the risk of reputational harm to our business which can impact our ability to keep and attract customers. don't really capture potential client reaction given the news broke so late in the quarter. ceo tim sloan and the new head of the community bank will be addressing a conference imminently. we'll report back with any headlines from that. guys? >> okay. thank you. need you a lot today, wilfred. a lot happening over there. this is going to be interesting to watch now. so there's a higher court. >> there's a higher court. and the idea is that they're going to have to -- the government's going to have to soften in order to get the vote
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that it needs. many of those members of parliament want britain to stay in the eu. >> well, it's tough. the people voted. 52-48. reminds me of -- >> they're still going to go through with brexit. >> i know. well, you would hope so. why do the referendum if they weren't going to look up to it. fed keeping rates unchanged but in its statement yesterday, the totally non-political central bank inserted a couple of hints that seemed to confirm expectations of a december rate hike. steve leisman joins us with the hints, runs, and errors. that wasn't you. >> i wrote that. i was trying to make a baseball thing and try to make some economic -- any minute they're going to scream in my ear get on with it -- >> i immediately guesses it was you. >> i don't think you wrote that the non-political central bank came out. >> that was an insertion by the banker. but he's free to do that.
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>> can't say that enough. >> non-political federal reserve. the hints were subtle, it says right there. but they were there and most observers picked up on them. it's now only looking for, quote, some further evidence before hiking rates rather than the broader, quote, further evidence hit number two it said that inflation increased somewhat rather than was expected to remain low. a little bit more inflation as well as not needing so much. we interpret to the statement as moving the committee closer to a december rate hike says goldman sachs. the chance of a fed rate hike stands at just under 70%. a few ticks higher than it was before the meeting. just to be clear when you're looking at it, this is the transition from the november contract to the december contract. trades down there at about an 8% chance. and then we switch over in our chart there to the december contract which trades near 66% or 67%. most economists suggested the real reason the fed passed was because of the lack of a press
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conference or maybe more so the election over at oxford economics. they wrote if the current policy meeting was not less than a week away from the u.s. elections, the fomc would have likely pulled the tightening trigger. what could derail the september hike? lousy data between now and then beginning with perhaps tomorrow's jobs report. as well as an adverse reaction to the election outcome. the prospect of an impending rate hike could be enough. look, the fed has been desperate to try to land this plane or take this plane off, whatever you want to call it, in a way that doesn't create the kind of dislocation in the past. >> if it wasn't political, they could have done it. moth >> we've seen things happen before. >> missing the opportunity to hike. >> if the conditions are optimal right now to sustain a quarter point, they could have done it. i'm just saying in that way they
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are political. it's not overtly political like people try to say that they are. you know, it's not the worst -- people -- >> they could have prepared the market for a hike. >> everybody assumes it and it's not a harmful way that people are -- deliberate way. but just by definition, there's circumstances, political conditions that come into play. >> i think the idea of not wanting to be part of the whole process is a political act but also it means it's an attempt to be neutral. >> you're being part of the process either way. >> but how would -- >> okay. look. if brexit happens which is a political issue but it becomes an economic issue, you make your decisions around that. same thing with the election. i mean, it's all one of the same. >> i guess the ultimate question is did the fed set the interest rate appropriately for the economy? and i think you could argue it did not. i think you could have argued it did not.
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beginning in september. the one thing nagging at me about december is i need to understand more about what janet yellen means when she talks about a high pressure economy. i need to understand what certain fed leadsers mean out there. they may not want to hike at all because they think there's all this slack out there. >> how many times have we heard people say one month or two woent make a difference. but add them up. >> i am as sick of talking about this as you are about it. >> when it's cumulative you could have gotten to a point. you're at a full percentage point. >> i don't think that's right but i think -- >> all right. >> a dollar would be so much stronger than where it is right now. >> if it's below where it was from the last hike. >> it is right now. because the outlook is they --
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>> i didn't know that was the third mandate. >> it impacts the economy. >> so does the -- so does cypress. you can find anything to impact the economy. is that will smith six degrees? or kevin bacon. joining us now chief fixed income strategist. think they -- i thinks can happen between now. i can tell you about ten things that could cause them not to hike in december. which means they missed another opportunity when they could have in november. >> all right. that's one way to approach it, certainly. we've got the jobs data coming up in a couple of days here. we've got a little rebellion. asia's been off a few percentage points in the last few days. i think it would take a lot more than just that. and frankly, every day that goes by that chart that steve showed a minute ago is showing a 67% rate hike.
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1%, 2% at a time. i suspect unless there's some data disaster between now and the december meeting -- >> it wouldn't take more than a thousand points on the dow would do it. >> it's very possible. we had that last year or rather beginning of this year if you recall in response to a fed rate hike. last time i was on your program, i argued that was because the chinese economy more specifically was unprepared and the chinese yen began to rise. now, this time around, the good news at least is that china has been managing its exchange rate a little bit lower here in context with the global currency basket. but in contrast with the dollar. so hopefully that means this time around, any action isn't going to drive the yen higher. and restrict exports. >> sara mentioned the dollar. there are levels in currencies that could be reached.
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you know, that soybeans put it at -- steve leisman told me soybeans gave us -- >> there was a 200% jump in agricultural exports. >> yeah. >> all right. so, you know, the dollar goes up another 10%, they won't do it. will they? >> probably not. our arithmetic shows a 6% rise in the dollar is equivalent to a 25 point basis rate hike. so that's already doing the fed's work for them. and this discussion becomes irrelevant. >> this is only the second one in the tightening cycle. >> right. i declared the end of the first cycle. i just want to point out there's a way of thinking about this which is that you're not raising rates because of the current economy. you're raising rates because we need to be off of the emergency level.
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because there's no justification for zero if you think trend is one and a half to two, if you think job is 150, that's where you should be. then zero doesn't make sense in that context. if you raise it, you get to a level and then you can hang out there. >> i also think it was the hike forecast that hurt markets this year. >> all year. >> maybe they need to pair expectations if they go. >> thank you. we'll check back with you at some point in the coming weeks. coming up, how big data could help hillary clinton and donald trump in the final days of the race for the white house. we're going to talk to a data scientist right after the break about how it all works and what they need to do. back in a moment. still to come, an ode to cher. >> do you ever plan to retire? >> there will come a time when i can't do it. and that scares me into doing
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it. >> the full interview with the music icon is just minutes away. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box." ♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.
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welcome back to "squawk box." with just five days left until the election day, both presidential candidates are trying to control the message. our next guest knows a thing or two about how campaign dos that using big data. kathy o'neil is here. her recent book is "weapons of math destruction." >> that's the way to do it. you alternate between data and data. because when -- you'd have to -- you don't want to pick one? >> i don't know. >> when it follows big, it's data. >> which is it? >> i say data. >> where are you? what's the math babe say? >> i'm on data side. >> would wilf say data? >> maybe they do. >> trying to channel some of that. who is doing better on the electronics side of using
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algorithms in this election? >> hillary is doing better by far. and moreover like democrats have a big head start. >> they were behind not this time around but years ago they were very behind relative. >> they were behind in sort of overall techniques for campaigning. like targeting people. but when obama's analytics team formed around 2008, they sort of took a giant step ahead. i think that helped from google to be honest. some people working at google. it's just like one of the things that's going ton with this. this is a technology. it gets better and better every election cycle. just because democrats are very good at -- have good data right now. doesn't mean it's not going to be true in 12 years. >> how do you ascertain which way people feel about certain things? are there certain tells? if you were working for one party or the other and you could mine my facebook account. if i hadn't talked about my politics on the account, could you still identify political
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leanings? >> i mean, it's not a science. it's not a perfect science. it's relatively crude now. but the answer is yes. pretty well now. and very well soon. we have to understand that these political campaigns are cutting edge in terms of data mining. they have all the data that is collected about us in terms of mining. other kinds of companies scrape publicly available information about us. including voting records. they know that you voted. that's sold tho to these campaigns. they put the stuff together and add on top of that once they have marketing profiles for everybody, they do little focus groups. so they ask the people with your profile what they think about these various topics like how persuadable on the topics. they actually have hundreds of scores. >> who's selling whom the data? that r they selling the data to the campaigns and parties? will the parties ever be able to
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create their own business to sell that data back to marketers? >> that's already happening. that's been happening since 2012. so the political campaigns, once they have information on every voter, they enrich that and do extra tests. they see in particular what reaction people have to suggestions that they give money to the campaign. so they have a lot of data on that. what works for that. >> will this ever become profitable for the campaigns themselves. will they ever sell this back. >> there's already fights about which campaigns get to control it. >> market prices things in accurately. should we be questioning all of those in an election? >> say it begin. >> just the betting odds right
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now. >> polling is a pretty different thing, actually. it's separate from the way the -- the way that they use this data, to be clear, is they send messages to people basically on facebook. and they send the message that they think will persuade that voter. my personal is it's relatively destructive for democracy. this is not something that will inform the public. and it adds to the lack of information and more generally that we're seeing in facebook. we're seeing the facebook echo effect where people get more partisan. and on top of that we have fake news sites coming on -- >> that's a whole other dilemma. >> but it is part of the whole spectrum which is like the lack of high quality information about politics that people -- you know, people don't even -- and by the way, if they go to the campaign website to look for better information about their candidate, they're tracked with cookies. and again when they get to that website, the website they see will be manufactured on the spot
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to show them what the campaigns want them to hear. >> thank you. >> my pleasure. >> fascinating. >> seeing your book everywhere. when we come back, the big business of cher and how she's harnessing the power of twitter. we'll have highlights from andrew's interview with the legendary recording artist next. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.
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welcome back to "squawk box"
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this morning. cher was a pioneer in the music industry. i asked her what she learned in her relationship with former senat senator sonny bono. >> when sonny and i started i had such a different look that i was the one of the first women to do a clothing line. i created a look for us out of being excited to express ourselves and sonny was great. no matter what i put on him, he would do it. >> who did you used to talk to about the business that ultimately became cher? >> nobody. >> like david geffen. were there other people in your life to go to? >> of course. when i was with david, i was just leaving sonny. and so i was -- i didn't know what i was going to do at all. i mean, i thought that maybe my career would be over. david helped me with the cher show. i mean, he was the producer of
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the cher show in the beginning. and he was amazing. i could have never done it without him. i'm not a formula kind of person. i don't plan anything. i fall into things and sometimes they're great and they work and sometimes they aren't. and sometimes i'm really tale talented and sometimes she's just a loser and whatever. there wasn't branding when i was young, really, you know. it wasn't like it is today. you didn't have people come in polish you up, get you a clothing line, you know, teach you everything and then, you know, you're out. >> you seem to be all over twitter all the time. >> yeah. >> when did that happen? >> long -- awhile ago. i really don't remember exactly when i got the insane idea. to get on it. it didn't make any sense really. because i'm dyslexic and i made no sense. and sometimes i couldn't even read my own tweets. then i started using emoji and
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people just ragged on me. then i saw this thing that said people who have emoji have more sex and are more exciting. then i started tweeting that. like take this. i like to be able to make myself heard even if no one is able to be heard. i've been able to do some good on twitter. i voice my opinions on certain things. and now, of course, with the presidency being in such turmoil. i mean, it's -- i'm all over it, truthfully. >> my thanks to cher. joe, we spared you some of her political thoughts on twitter. you may know where she stands. she was speaking at the fast company festival on the authenticity of the digital world. it was great to talk to her. >> i couldn't have interviewed her. >> and we're going to put more of that, i believe, online. >> so emojis is proportional to
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welcome back to "squawk box." we're looking for third quarter preliminary productivity. that's a biggie. we're looking for a number a little around 2%. we ended up with up 3.1%. and last month's minus 0.6% gets marked up to only minus 0.2%. unit labor costs, up 0.3%. about one-third of what we were expecting. and last month, also labor costs eased back towards 3.9%. 265,000 is the latest read on jobless. and that's, of course, initial jobless. and that represents a 7,000 increase from an unrevised 258,000. that productivity indeed, it's a biggie. we've had negative final fourth quarter last year. first and second quarters of this year were negative. so we want to continue to monitor that. and, you know, being from chicago, i have to tell you,
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what an epic battle we've been witnessing. the department of justice versus the fbi. unbelievable! now, of course, i jest. cubs win. we've got to savor this. i may not live to see another one. of course everybody's a little bit dreary eyed today. i haven't bumped into anybody that didn't stay up for the whole game. back to you, guys. >> we're lucky you showed up to work. rick, thank you. rick santelli in chicago. congratulations. joining us now to talk about the data ahead of tomorrow's big report, is joe zitel. things have come down from last year, but pretty solid jobs growth. what do you expect? >> yeah, it is pretty solid jobs growth. focusing on one data point, i think obviously there can be a lot of volatility. the numbers have come down a bit. but if you look at the data out yesterday, you see it was revised higher for september and for previous in six months. also if you look at the
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challenger data this morning, what we heard from an early guest was that companies are holding onto people. you put all this together and you look at one giant narrative. it's still the jobs market is pretty good. and it shows inflationary pressures that the fed is worried about. you've got decent jobs, a good environment for workers, you have companies not firing their workers or holding onto them. that suggests that wages and things like that are going to continue to rise. >> although, we have the jobs report, we had a fed meeting. we have these major earnings. yet the election is front and center. we're at -- >> the polls plus was at 65%. but it was at 85% a week ago basically. >> so do you make any moves now? do you risk? are you pricing that in in some way? >> we wouldn't make moves based on the election itself. i think those sort of decisions that are made under duress is often the wrong decision. as we look behind the scenes, we
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see number one profits are continuing to recover. here we are three quarters of the way through. the third quarter reporting season. and s&p 500 year over year is looking about flat. now, it's really hard to get amped up over flat earnings. but if you look at where we've come from, in the fourth quarter last year, s&p earnings are down 15.5%. then in the first quarter they were down 13, then down 8. now they're showing flat. and it's showing that these profits are continuing to reflat. and that's very bullish for stocks. >> yes, but, not to keep making you talk about the election, but there seems to be two schools of thought. i'm curious how you're thinking about it. one, whoever is president, the the president doesn't have a lot of power. the investors take them for their word and then can't implement things. on the other hand, foreign policy questions, immigration questions, trade questions. these are things in a president's control. and we do have a lot of uncertainty which could weigh on
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the outlook. >> the silver lining is that they always break their promises, right? and that little gets done. so from our perspective, we're looking at the underlying fundamentals. and they suggest that it's an economy that continues to be a little bit better, little bit better. profits are reflating. i would say this is a classic late cycle environment. i think this is probably the eighth inning of this cycle. right? where you start to see inflationary pressures, tighter labor markets, the fed raises rates. and all those things. but the reality is the issues that you're pointing to have been what have kept investors on the sideline. it's what's kept sentiment toward equity so poor. that's a contrarian sentiment. don't you think when we get to the other side of this bull market and people are writing the history on this bull market, they're going to describe it exactly as that. we've seen massive outflows. we seen equity outflows for individual investors and pension
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funds and endowments. that's how bull markets work. >> so you're a buyer. >> we're a buyer. bull markets are never fun until the end. >> will you relocate to canada if bernstein moves after the election if trump were to win? he's threatened to move -- >> he's not in that camp. >> he hasn't said that yet? >> we're keeping a list of people moving to canada. >> rich is not? he has not? he'll stay? >> we're not there yet. i think about texas or florida. >> that's you. rich is moving -- >> i'll talk to him. >> oh, yeah. he's out of here. new zealand. he might become a kiwi. coming up, when americans -- new zealand's nice. lord of the rings. beautiful. you been? >> yeah. >> been to the buton but not indiana. >> why would he go to indiana? >> say that again?
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>> by the way, i have been to indiana. so there. >> flying over does not count b. >> no, no. i've landed. i've landed and stayed. >> they're going to be deciding between red and blue and green. nine states will vote on the legalization of pot next week. we're going to tell you what's at stake next.
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welcome to "squawk box." the holiday season is coming early at ford following a 12% decline in october sales. the automaker is now offering a
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thousand dollars back friday for cash early than such sales typically take place. also a busy afternoon of corporate earnings. today after the closing bell we're going to get the numbers from cbs, starbucks, and kraft heinz. the bank of england has left its interest rate unchanged this morning. it also has removed signals of possible further stimulus. saying rates could move in, quote, either direction. strong move higher in the pound. that came after the high court decision that any trigger of article 50 that will officially put the shot clock on the pressure talks. the market likes that idea thinking maybe theresa may has to soften her stance in order to get it through parliament. that's the rally in the pound. but certainly investors are also taking note of this bank of england headline that they're going to scrap the guidance to
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add additional stimulus. the british economy, you guys, has held up nicely. one reason could be the fact that brexit hasn't happened yet. >> you have a different view on that. >> no, i was thinking just that -- >> you're onto something else. >> who can dream of introing a harry smith package? i mean, as a young man, i probably would have -- not that you're old. >> oh, wow. >> i don't want anything from you. but seriously. to submit to some day intro. i'm going to intro it. all you get to do is tag it. i'm going to take credit for the package and everything. in addition to depicting the president, high profile ballot initiatives next week. and one of the biggest can be colorado's prop 64. it's a measure that would legalize recreation gnat marijuana. is there any other kind? no, there isn't. >> there's medical. >> yes, but for many, many years, i think of it as recreational. anyway. that's a different story.
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nbc's harry smith reports. >> this is breakfast made with mother's love. right? >> reporter: jennifer tahata is a california mom who's worried about election day. >> this is the reason for prop 64. >> reporter: because her state is voting on the legalization of recreational marijuana. >> it will certainly be more prevalent and it will be more challenging for our kids to say no. >> reporter: carolina, arizona, nevada, massachusetts, and maine all have legal cannabis on the ballot. potentially joining legal marijuana states oregon, washington, colorado, and alaska. >> everybody knows anyone wants it can get it today. >> reporter: california lieutenant governor gavin newsom says it's time to stop criminalizing something many use. >> i don't want to see them arrested. >> reporter: california said yes to medical marijuana 20 years ago. making a doctor-recommended high easy to come by.
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today's dispensary is more starbucks than head shop. and sparks ceo eric pearson is all for legalization. >> we're coming out of the closet. we're making it normal and approachable. >> reporter: if prop 64 passes and you're 21 or older, you can buy marijuana from a licensed vendor no questions asked. and you can grow your own. up to six plants per home. and that worries jennifer tahat a who along with being a mom is a police chief in the bay area. >> i think we're going to have a lot of people who are driving under the influence of marijuana. app lot more traffic collisions where people die, lose their lives. >> reporter: but polls show a huge shift from just ten years ago. today a majority of americans want pot legalized. >> california votes yes, it's legitimately the beginning of the end of the war on marijuana in the united states of america. period. full stop. >> reporter: red state, blue state? maybe green is the color to
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watch on election night. >> and guys, if all five states voting on this issue next week pass it, that will mean nearly 25% of the u.s. population will have access to legal marijuana. >> have you come to any personal conclusions about all of this? >> i -- >> you've been working this beat for awhile. >> about three years now. pretty heavily. the guy whose guidance i think is probably the best in this is hickenlooper, the governor of colorado. he was never for this in the first place. but he says, think about this. you're legalizing an intoxicant. we prohibitioned alcohol. here's the taxes of alcohol. here's the cost of alcohol in terms of lost days, alcoholism, people who drink too much and do terrible things in cars or to their spouses. right? we have no idea what the actual social cost will be versus how much we tax this stuff. but on the other hand, what we also know in this day and age,
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anyone in this room can go on their phone or go on their computer and literally get marijuana -- you could get marijuana delivered to this door in ten minutes. and it's not legal here, but it's that easy. look at the look on your faces. like really? >> no. it's not legal. >> she's going to go download the app. >> medical marijuana was passed. i'm just wondering how blurred the lines are in states like california. >> super, super, super blurry. you go into a shop in california and it's just like a recreational store in colorado. >> to go in, i think you just have to say i have anxiety. >> you need a card. you can get one from any strip mall for 20 bucks. you can get a card online now in california. it costs you $30. >> and it's the old argument that they say it's de facto legalized. look at this. i can't go anywhere. >> in the '70s, i mean, it was illegal. but if you wanted it -- that was
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one thing. if you want things, you can get them. >> right. in which then think about this. because millennials have driven up the approval rating of legalization. now you have 57% pro legalization in the pugh poll. 60% in gallup. they know i can get this any time i want to. will that drive them to the polls to say i want to get this legalized? i'm not sure. >> i worry about the long-term effects. you know, i have kids and everything. >> for kids, that's one of the biggest arguments. if it's legalized and you're a teenager because the teenage brain is the teenage brain as we well know. if it's legal, how bad can it by -- be? we know that the effect on teenage brains are profound. if there's regular use a couple days a week, you can see a marked difference. >> do we have any real numbers on consumption patterns and how it's changed in the past couple of years in these states? >> right. this is what we really don't
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know. because what's happened with legalization is it's taken this intoxicant out of the closet. >> right. >> so we don't have a real baseline in order to -- >> and we certainly don't have health studies or social studies. >> not enough. >> is it going to pass? it's coming up on how many ballots? >> five. five. listen, the poll that people are looking at is maybe two months old and it was like 60% for. one of the interesting things in california is the pot growers themselves are fighting about whether or not to back legalization. they've had a wonderful sort of not so regulated business up there. legalization is going to be a lot more regulation like in colorado we have to put a bar code on every single plant. right? it's like, whoa. big brother's coming in. they're also worried up there about big pot moving in. and that hasn't really happened yet. >> right. >> people are -- >> also prices have collapsed, right? with the availability? >> well, here's the thing. that's why the black market is
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so active and it's still so vibrant. because with taxation, the cost of legal is high. cost of the stuff on the street is cheaper. >> is there one company that looks like they will become big pot? >> who's the scaleable? >> yeah. is there one that looks like this philip morris? >> i'm not telling. >> you know. >> people have looked at who's got the good managers. at the end o v the day who's got the good managers. and there's a couple of people out there really killing it. really killing it. i know one guy out there who has a manual. he travels around the country to people in the pot business. book alone costs $500. >> have the rollups started yet? >> you see some consolidation because as the sort of stoners fall out. but from my perspective, i haven't seen that big guy come in and write the check. because until recently you needed local ownership. so all of that, this -- listen.
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i've been -- i've talked to the vs c guy who is are in different aspects of the business. they're writing serious big checks. they're at -- mark twain once said where there's a gold rush, you want to be in the pick and shovel business. there are people like that saying you can make safe bets. the other thing, don't forget. it's still a schedule one drug. people in colorado, they're taking money to bank in pillow cases. right? it's crazy. >> do you want to thank him? complete the whole dream? >> let me just sort of -- no. you were on network news 40 years? 30? >> 30-something. >> i mean, we watched you as young people. >> yeah. listen. here's the truth. this is an -- i still love going out and learning things. i mean, it's just all based on curiosity, right? every time i go out to colorado,
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go to california, go to wherever it is, it's like watching a genie come out of the bottle. >> you live in -- where do you live? >> right up there. i live on the upper west side. >> you do? >> yeah. >> i've seen you out in summit, new jersey. >> i get around. well, i ride a bike up 9-w. i'm one of those guys on a bike there. >> like, wow, there's harry smith. >> the river road. right? absolutely. that's what it's about. >> does this happen every time you come to the "squawk box" set? >> right? >> pretty much. >> we like it here. >> usually he keeps coffee in his cup. >> i apologize for that. >> it's all right. >> you know, one of my network bosses said -- >> the camera seeing what happened here. >> i was told tho stop gesticulating. >> all over andrew's stuff. i'm trying to extendinterview so it all soaks in. >> it's beautiful. >> i don't know if the audience can see it. >> thank you. >> good to see you, harry. up next, we head down to the
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new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us live. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. chasing after short term returns. instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the investment managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with risk-management rigor, to seek out global opportunities. we manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the world's leading investors. partner with pgim. the global investment management businesses of prudential
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what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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welcome back to "squawk box." under armour opening the doors to its newest store last night
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in boston. and some celebrity brand ambassadors were there to show their support. we caught up with new england patriots quarterback tom brady at the event. he famously in his locker has a make america great again hat, so we asked the four-time super bowl winner if he is indeed supporting trump. >> yeah, he sent me that hat when he first got into the race a long time ago. so, you know, i think religion is a little like politics and a little like medicine and a little like a lot of these other controversial things where there's never a right answer, not a wrong answer, a lot of people on different sides of the fence. i believe that we're all responsible for doing our best to help change the world. >> and then our sports producer, jessica golden asked, does that mean you're supporting trump to which he said, guys, that's for america to decide. i know you don't like the celebrity endorsements. what about the athlete endorsements? lebron james famously came out to support hillary clinton. didn't get much here from brady,
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but he does have the hat in his locker. >> i think he said enough there. probably. you know, you can -- you've seen the media coverage. you can support hillary clinton, you'll be fine. but i wouldn't go saying you support trump. >> oh, in other words the sti a stigma. >> yeah. i wouldn't suggest anyone do that, especially ceos, athletes, anybody. no. that's the way it is in the current milieu. let's get down to the new york stock exchange, jim cramer, politically correct. jim cramer joins us now, it's easier to hide behind let's just talk stocks, facebook, things like that, jim? >> that's kind of what i wanted to do. if i wanted to do the other stuff, i'd been on another channel. >> exactly. so how about facebook? you worried about it? >> no, there were a couple words on the conference call that really caused people, you saw the stock drop when they talked about meaningful decline in the rate of the amount of money that's going to come in from
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advertising skprks they said they have to spend money substantially and aggressively and that freaked everybody out. but it didn't amount to a number cut. it amounted to them spending money to be able to make it so the user experience is great across a whole host of things. the revenues i think were unbelievable. the amount of people who were signing up just incredible. i think that this was entirely an overreaction, trading down 117, i know everybody defended it. i suspect it can probably go back down a little bit again today so much profit taking, but it was a really good quarter and i think the company's being conservative. >> jim, thanks. >> thank you. >> see you in a couple minutes coming up on "squawk on the stree street". don't miss aig ceo peter hancock, that's at 9:00 a.m. eastern. what happened to peter thiel? one guy. look what happened. >> right. the fact he's a pariah. >> yeah. "squawk box" will be right back.
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welcome back to squawk. fitbit shares getting hit hard today. the wearable fitness device maker's revenue fell short and holiday outlook is weak. fitbit being hurt by tough competition. also whole foods fourth quarter profit beat forecasts while revenue was in line, same store sales fell more than expected. the company says those declines have been easing lately. whole foods also doing away with
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the dual ceo structure making john mackey the chief. >> co-counsels, did that ever work? >> normally a threesome. i mean, it is, you're here today. but, you know. >> someone has to be in charge. >> what do you suggest? >> i defer to you most of the time. very kind of me and thank you for being here today. >> thank you for having me. >> i don't know who's here tomorrow. >> not me. it's jobs friday. >> is tomorrow jobs? >> jobs friday is tomorrow. >> you'll be here. >> i'm going to be here but i'm going to be in lincoln center. we'll have ron on from 6:00 to 8:00 and then move into our jobs. we got a lot of stuff going on tomorrow morning. >> all right. we were going to look at the markets but it was better -- markets are up a little. nasdaq was down because of facebook, maybe it's come back. >> pound is up. >> what is that? >> pound is up on relief. >> certainly is with that thing on the courts over there. make sure you join us tomorrow,
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jobs friday. "squawk on the street" is coming up right now. ♪ ♪ go cubs go ♪ hey chicago what do you say congratulations to the chicago cubs on their world championship and the end of the longest drought in american sports. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. speaking of droughts, s&p's down seven straight, a loss today would be the longest since the crisis in '08. but futures are up for the moment. big news out of europe as a


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