tv Closing Bell CNBC November 25, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
maybe not that good. >> it better be good for that price. >> it's pretty good. >> i would just pour it on myse myself. oh, wait, it's not 1999. i went back in time. my apologies. >> record high watch here for the markets. join us for "closing bell" next. thanks for watching "street signs." welcome to the closing bell. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm scott wapner in for bill griffeth. any gains for the dow or s&p today would be a new record. then the nasdaq trading above 4,000 for the first time since september of 2000 today. but will it be a close above 4,000? it is right now. can we hold on for another hour? >> is the market getting ahead of itself at these levels?
we'll ask john calamos. he has an interesting take on stocks you definitely want to stay tuned for. holidays are a huge time of year for our consumer-based economy. president of american express ed gilligan will join us. is he worried about the timing of that terrible storm making its way across the nation? we'll ask him that and plenty more. >> a lot of people are worried about that. how about walmart trading higher today, even though some are worried about the timing of the announcement of a new ceo. much faster than many people had expected. if that's a sign of trouble ahead for the giant retailer and what do we make of doug mcmillan's age? he's only 47. youngest walmart ceo since founder sam walton. stay with us for that story as well. >> let's take a check of markets. dow is up about 30 point, not a huge move.
as we continue to find new levels, new record perhaps. the nasdaq, look at that. back and forth across the line, psychological important if nothing else. the s&p, caterpillar adding to the outperformance there. >> nasdaq trying to close above 4,000 for the first time in some 13 years. >> sheila, unless we forget, even at 4,000, the nasdaq is still 1,000 points away from the all-time high, correct? i don't think sheila can hear us. the point being, an interesting take in the wall street journal today as well. is it really just the point level that matters or do you have to take into account, stock, the fact we've had consumer price inflation? the fact the total return for the markets including dividends. a lot of these benchmarks, it's one thing to look at round numbers. another to explore what it really means. sheila, can you hear us now? >> it's a big day here at the nasdaq.
we're crossing that 4,000 mark for the first time since september 2000. it's not the highest the nas das has ever been. that was in march 2000 when the nasdaq hit 5408. we're a little way as way from a record high but, nonetheless, a big psychological barrier. there were a few notable losers left behind in today's rally. qualcomm, one of the biggest losers on the index today after china is investigating one of its business unit. ebay taking a hit after comments on monday. talk about the social media, internet 2.0 names like facebook, pandora, yelp, linkedin. not a lot of news there but people say maybe it's a twitter sympathy trade, or momentum trades losing their shine. let's talk about what has been working on the nasdaq today. that's biotech. a big, big winner. nasdaq biotech hitting an
all-time high today. names like biogen, cellgen, and old tech is having a good day. google, a good day. amazon hitting another record today. back to you. >> sheila, thanks so much. mean while, the dow and s&p trying to hit at all-time highs. >> joins, dan hughes, jeff, and david sieberg and our very own rick santelli. david, first to you. the extraordinary thing about this rally isn't just the scope of it or the size of it this year, but the fact so many companies are participating. so, is it time now to look at some of those beaten down stocks and think they might join before year end or do you think we still stay clear? >> i think that's an interesting concept. i think in general the momentum names n my opinion, you don't touch them right now. i think they've had their move. i don't think there's a lot more juice in them until year end.
you could look in tech at some of the names that haven't participated. look at the hewletts of the world, microsofts, even the apples. there's an opportunity there to maybe park some money into those names until the end of the year and see if you get a little ride. will you see a shift out of some of these internet names into these names? i don't know if you necessarily have the same investor class, but i think you possibly could see a little pop in the underperforming tech names. >> james, how much room do you think is left between now and the end of the year for a little bit of a run? >> i think we still have a couple percent. we'll have accommodative fiscal policy. stocks still remain fundamentally attractive. i think quality names will continue to perform well. >> danny, what about you? i think a lot of the discussion now goes back to, do you stick with the broad index this year or do you try to pick out some names that might have been lagging a bit? >> i think that might be a good idea, kelly. we do have what's called the
entry into what could be a santa rally. we want to watch out for the names that have lagged a little bit. this week is not the week to do it, though. this is the week of excesses in so many other ways like turkey and shopping, but certainly not the market volumes. this is the lowest volume week of the year. so, we could tend to see some big swings one way or the other. and that's a good place to start. to look at some names that have been lagging, even on the retail side. retail sector has been hot of late. a lot of laggards there, and we could see movement there come cyber monday, black friday. >> rick santelli, looking at the ten-year note yield, 2.74. i wonder how much you would put into the fed doing anything at all in december? are we underestimating what could happen before the end of the year? >> i don't know what we're underestimating when it comes to the fed. i really couldn't read those tea leaves. i think many are underestimating how much the market and long
maturities can continue to move, no matter what you believe the fed is going to do. short rates, vengs, will be pegged. if you look at fives and 30s today intraday, it makes the point. short maturities were more well behaved after all yields moved at 10:00 eastern. we're definitely looking as though by year end we're probably going to have new records on stocks and probably be closer, if not over 3% on the ten-year. one thing i'd like to point out, as we at some point are most likely going to see the fed do something to reduce purchases, the japanese stimulus is straight ahead full throttle. since all stimulus is fungible, many believe a surrogate for what the world will look like when there's less quantitative easier might be a higher dollar/yen value. >> if we end the year, sooner in 2014, and go over 3% in the ten-year, can we continue to go
up? i mean, can stocks and high rates -- higher rates co-exist? >> no, if rick is right, i don't think they can. i think when you're looking at the fed metrics, looking at unemployment with a target of 6.5 and probably lower target than that given the fear of another recession, and looking at inflation at 2% and you look at the labor force participation rate dipping down to 62.8, it's going to be a long time before we hit those targets. if you look at inflation, whether it's the pce or whether it's cpi, these are very, very low inflation numbers. >> stocks are yawning right now, jeff. at rates that have gone up. i mean, i know we cared the first time this happened. we don't care now, do we? the equity market certainly doesn't seem to care right now. >> no, the equity market go up. your equity premium diminishes. i think you'll see an impact. i think you'll have lower rates for a long period of time. >> at the same time, if we look back at the last couple of cycles, we know they didn't end
when the fed began to raise. cycles became more powerful at that point. should that necessarily trip people up here? >> no, i don't think it should trip people up here. as a matter of fact, you look at rates and look at the ten-year in general, i mean, the ten-year is rising. and the market's actually rising. it's very different than what we saw back in august and september when the market was selling off and the ten-year yield was going up. i look at that very differently. one thing i'll point out, you mentioned -- or one of the guests mentioned a santa claugs r rally. the people on our note, high flyer momentum names, they're taking some of the profits they've made and they're actually buying upside calls. they're buying calls and looking for that upside protection in case this market actually does take off. that's very interesting to note because that actually is a voe bullish signal. >> wait a minute, dave. explain why would someone buy upside protection? >> because they think there's a possibility that the market
could actually -- can actually continue to run it to the end of the year. think about it. they're selling some names, like internet names, taking the profits, taking some profits they've made and buying some upside calls, right? so if the market does take off until the end of the year, they're protected to the upside. i think that's a very interesting thing we're seeing. i think it's a very bullish sign as a trade to the end of the year. >> do you think, dani, we'll get any meaningful rotation from bonds to stocks if you continue to see rates creep higher, as rick santelli thinks they will, and i think everybody expects them to? >> we still have absurdly cheap money out there. about $235 billion has flown into global equity market this is year. $18 billion has actually come into bond markets as well. these are fun. you haven't seen that great rotation yet. there's a lot of investors that are still on the sidelines. kind of waiting for the sky to fall, which still has not happened. even though, you know, all signs
portend the market is going to crash. it hasn't happened yet. this melt-up will probably continue until rates are not as cheap, where big companies can't borrow like they've been able to borrow. >> we'll see. dani, thanks. thanks to all of our other guests as well. 50 minutes to before we close it up on this thanksgiving week monday. dow is up ten points, holding above 16,000. s&p right now is on track for its best year since 19 97. the nasdaq is just a touch below 4,000. >> incredible. strong gain this is year. all-time high, as scott was saying, for the dow, s&p 500, nasdaq 4,000. chatter is back about whether this market is getting too frothy. who better to ask than one of the best investors on wall street. john calamos with some predictions you don't want to miss. he'll join us exclusively. >> up like a rocket, down like a feather. gasoline prices have been
spiking lately, but why? with oil lower on this iran nuke deal, should we see the price at the pump come down just as fast? don't bet on it. ♪ ♪ no two people have the same financial goals. pnc works with you to understand yours and help plan for your retirement. visit a branch or call now for your personal retirement review. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities.
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.
welcome back. oil prices may be slumping even more so now on the iran nuke deal but gasoline prices are starting to spike. sharon epperson, where's the disconnect between oil and gasoline? >> first of all, brent crude prices aren't down that much at all. only down a few cents because a lot of traders are skeptical about how much iranian crude will come back to the market based on this preliminary deal. we're looking at u.s. oil prices down more sharply because there's so much oil out there. and gas prices have been climbing because a number of refinery outages around the country but the refineries are coming back on line. so traders and analysts tell me we could see gas prices at the pump start to decline once again. looking at $3.28, now near the lowest levels of the year and we could get significantly lower here going toward the end of the year if we see these refineries back in operation. back to you.
>> sharon, thanks very much. now, more on the disconnected between falling oil prices and a little rebound in prices at the gasoline price, let's bring in energy analyst at raymond james and brian kel y founder of kelly capital and contributor to "fast money." welcome. is this going to persist or as sharon indicated -- which way is it going to be, gas prices drift back lower? that's what retailers are hoping. >> on a short-term basis certainly, you know, refining margins can be volatile. retail margins can be volatile. looking out the next 12 months, our view at raymond james is oil will be down about 20 bucks by the end of 2014 off of current levels, which everything else being equal, means gasoline is going to be down about 50 cents a gallon or almost 15%. >> brian kelly, you agree? are we going to be looking at 80 buck oil before 100 again?
>> yeah. listen, the supply -- demand fundamentals support oil. the other side, you were talking about gasoline and heating oil, refineries are really running full tilt right now. we haven't built a new refinery in the u.s. in 20 to 30 years. that's the rick here to a spike in either diesel prices, heating oil and/or gas prices because demand starts to outstrip the ability to produce the product. >> great point. obviously, that would be a hit to consumers heading into this holiday season. we'll keep an eye on that. i want to go back to this point because if oil prices fall 20 bucks, are you talking about the wti? in other words, the u.s. benchmark. >> both. >> so -- >> both, actually. >> especially then would add to this downward pressure on prices at the gas pump. how confident are you given we came into 2013 with everyone saying this was the year oil was down $50 a barrel. that never happened. >> yeah. we're looking for both wti and
brent to be down sharply in 2014. because, quite simple y global increases in supply are outpacing global inyeess in demand by close to two to one. certainly, there are these geopolitical nuances. that's really why oil has not sold off as much as we expected in 2013. we had the almost war with syria, revolution in egypt, supply disruptions out of libya. for the first time in year there's actually good news on the geopolitical front. the possibility of a legitimate long-term deal with iran that would bring back 1.5 million barrels to the market. >> why the reaction from opec at september meeting won't cut production to a point where saudis will feel more comfortable? >> it's not rational for the
saudis to keep prices at such a level that it encourages more drilling activity in places like the bakken, the permian basin, so forth. in effect, if they cut, they would be losing market share to subsidize all their competitors. russians, americans, brazilians and, by the way, iranians, which is the last thing they want to do. >> in a world of $80 oil, what does it mean to the stock market at large? i mean f we're going to drop 20 bucks from where we are today, what's it going to mean for energy, which is a big part of the market? all with this paradigm shift going on here in the united states? higher oil production here, nat gas, et cetera. >> it's a huge boom, obviously, for the consumer. if we can get 50 cents lower on gasoline. stock market up a little this morning, you saw some euphoria. it means there's more money for the consumer to spend. since gdp is consumer
consumption here in the u.s., it's very positive for us. the question s you do need to look out next week, when we look to the opec meeting. sure, opec doesn't have a huge incentive to cut and to keep prices at these levels. but i don't know if they're so willing to get them too low either. remember, iran is the one who needs very high oil prices. if saudi arabia gets a little concerned about iran having nuclear weapons, they may want to smoke iran out and really drop the oil price. we'll have to see next week, december 4th will be a very big opec meeting. >> i don't think you want to be short geopolitical tension. thank you very much. catch brian and the rest of the "fast money" crew at 5 p.m. eastern for plenty more on that. 40 minutes left to go here. we need to mention, the markets are coming off their highs -- well off the highs of the session. now the dow is barely positive. the s&p is slightly negative. >> nasdaq is in a dog fight for 4,000. we'll see over the next 40 minutes if we can close over 4,000 for the first time since the year 2000.
one the problems in the market, despite much of the day spent in the green, is that social media stocks almost across the board have been hit especially hard. it's hitting the nasdaq somewhat. you have names like twitter, facebook, pan doria, yelp, all getting hit pretty good in the face of what has been, by and large, a pretty good day on the street. >> now, is this holiday shopping season, jcpenney's aamo or make and break for the retailer? speaking of retail, wal-mart announcing a ceo shakeup during the busiest week of the shopping year. what does the timing of this move tell us and does the ceo at just 40 years old foreshadow sweeping changes for the company? that's all coming up. i'm a careful investor.
when you do what i do, you think about risk. i don't like the ups and downs of the market, but i can't just sit on my cash. i want to be prepared for the long haul. ishares minimum volatility etfs. investments designed for a smoother ride. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (aaron) purrrfect.
(vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro. you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. how naughty was he? oh boy... [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. (announcer) at scottrade, our cexactly how they want.t with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade-proud to be ranked "best overall client experience." stick with innovation. stick with power. stick with technology.
get the flexcare platinum. new from philips sonicare. welcome back. tough times keep getting tougher for jcpenney. analyst and investors are waiting to see what, if any, strategy the company can use to save itself. getting the boost from the s&p 500 index at the end of last week. >> the stock has been shooting up, gaining 35% over that time. is the market betting this
holiday season will save jcpenney? size more capital management says jcpenney is on the slow train to oblivion. while max says this is the most important selling season for the company. he's not holding out any hope. this stock acts as if something has changed, dramatically changed. comps are trending in the right direction for the first time in a while. how would you characterize what's taken place there? the here and now? >> well, i've been around retail quite a long time. when thoos turn-arounds start to turn and comp sales go up, the stocks do, too. the question is whether they can hold it. >> it's not so much if the stock has been going up, but the story has turned. is the worst over? can we take the doomsday scenario off the table with jcp?
>> no. the question is, can they get sales at acceptable margins to get them cash flow positive enough that they don't run out of cash when their debt starts coming due. >> they were criticized at by some, that helped drive their shares ultimately below $7. they've rebounded to something in the mid-$9 range. they were trading above $20 earlier this year. to rick's point here, what's the difference between a short-term, profitable play for some people playing around in this space, versus a real turn-around for this company? >> well, there is no turn-around for this company any time soon. i think what you're seeing here is just a post ackman rally. when bill ackman got out of the company, i think that made a lot of people optimistic. not because they think it's sustainable but in the short term it lifts a huge weight off the company's shoulder. >> the stock went down almost every single day after ackman sold his shares.
i don't understand -- don't understand that. there was a few in the marketplace as if ackman may have gotten out at the top. >> okay. there is that. there were a couple of heavy hitters that did get into the stock recently. soros management got in. heyman capital got in. a few others got in. that combined with -- everybody these days is fading bill ackman, so that looked like a short-term bullish opportunity there. but looking at the biggest picture, it's an absolute disaster. same store sales growth -- or decline, i should say, are down about 5% the most recent quarter. you're coming off declines of 30% from the comps. yes, it's shrinking at lower rates but this is absolutely a train to oblivion. it's just a matter, how fast
does it get there. >> i'm curious. you describe this as a long-term short, forgive the octi-- why n put your money here? >> i probably will. the only bullish argument you can make, the only bullish argument at all, is that the company may be worth more dead than alive. it looks like eddy lampert is doing this at sears. buy up the company, let the retail slowly die and sell off real estate holdings for presumably a large gain there. the problem is jcpenney has mortgaged their real estate holdings with the loan they got from goldman sachs. goldman sachs gave them a life line there earlier this year. but they took the real estate holdings as collateral. so, the one bullish argument you can make for jcp, it's worth more daead than alive.
>> this is a company that raise the a lot of money. maybe raised more than they needed in the current environment. at the current state of where things are. what if the holidays are successful? >> then there's a chance. >> we're speaking about something that you could take -- it's a possibility, is it not? not just a distant possibility. >> it certainly -- >> what if the holidays are better than expected? they'll be cutting prices like everybody else, sacrificing margins to try to get people into the store. >> that's where jcpenney is at a disadvantage. they have to get gross profit dollars to leverage the rest of the income statement. they have to get their sales at an adequate margin to become cash flow positive. >> and their competitors are hurting as well. we've had very big disappoints in walmart, in target, in virtually every -- every retail that targets working class and middle class consumers. >> macy's seems to be doing all
right lately. >> well, macy's is a higher price point. when you talk about working class and middle class, lower middle class, that's a very different deal. that's where unemployment is hitting the hardest. it's where incomes are rising the slowest. penny's is there at that vulnerable price point. >> gentlemen, thank you. 30 minutes before we close it up. the s&p still down a couple of points. nasdaq is still below 4,000. by about seven points. the dow, it's above 16,000. >> it's positive. that's all you can say for it. we'll keep an eye on it for the next half hour. don't look now, but severe weather could threaten thanksgiving travel and the kickoff to the shopping season. coming up, the president of american express, we'll ask him what he thinks the impact may be. you may soon have to pay a bank just for them to hold your money. really? that outrageous story is later on the "closing bell." (vo) our new planes don't fly any faster.
but it sure feels that way. because with power ports... and wi-fi... and in-seat entertainment, for everyone on board, now when you fly, time flies too. (flight attendant) sir, we're about to land. (vo) we're adding a brand new plane, with all this, every week. it's just one way we're building the new american. [ engine revs ] ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] the mercedes-benz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle that's just right for you, no matter which list you're on. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho! [ male announcer ] get the all-new 2014 cla250 starting at just $29,900.
you really love, what would you do?" ♪ [ woman ] i'd be a writer. [ man ] i'd be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] i'd be an architect. what if i told you someone could pay you and what if that person were you? ♪ when you think about it, isn't that what retirement should be, paying ourselves to do what we love? ♪
deal from iran over the weekend has quickly faded. >> caterpillar is being watched closely today. walmart is being watched closely today as we try to get this dow, you know, to close more significantly above 16 thoi. barely holding on right now. even as we speak, we're threatening to go into negative territory. >> we'll keep a close eye on it. just under half an hour to go before the closing bell. in the meantime, the severe weather that walloped the west coast, heading eastward and threatening to create a travel nightmare for thanksgiving and could impact retailers as well on this important week. chris warren joins us now. what can you tell us? >> it is heading to the northeast. this right here is the storm that's developing. the rain in the green and the yellow and then some wintery weather associated with this will be increasing throughout the rest of the day today. then we're going to watch this whole mess move into the
northeast. the south will still be dealing with it, mid-south during the day tomorrow. by tomorrow afternoon and evening, look at some of the bigger cities here now going to be seeing that rain. inland location dealing with the snow. by tomorrow night, this storm will be in full swing. it's going to last into tomorrow -- or into wednesday. so, you have tonight, tomorrow through wednesday. however, by thanksgiving, this storm will be out of here. thanks will be drying out for the shoppers. you will have to bundle up. it will be cold and breezy. >> thanks very much. will this week's storm impact spending for hole diday shopper? joining us, ed gilligan, president of american express. welcome to post 9 and the new york stock exchange. >> thank you, scott. >> you have fewer shopping days this year. now this. what are the folks thinking at amex when they see these reports? >> generally, there is concern about the shopping season.
six less days between thanksgiving and christmas but lots of green shoots as well. if you look at housing market has rebounded, the stock market is up. and our own research of consumers in the u.s. suggests that they're going to spend more money on holiday shopping this year than they did last year. >> this caught my attention because it looks like they'll spend $400 more on average. that's a huge increase. >> that's what the research came back saying, spending on average $1200. >> that's a 50% jump. what do you think is driving that? >> i think consumers do have some pent-up energy here. like i said, housing markets are better. real estate price is up, stock market's up. and i think it is -- bodes well for this coming shopping season. there are definitely concerns. what we're trying to focus on is to get skurmgz think about shop willing small on saturday. you know, there is a lot of sales going on. the holiday shopping season has begun. small businesses are critical to the success of the economy. half the people in this country work for small businesses.
this will be the fourth year in a row american express has run small business saturday, trying to get americans to think about shopping small this coming saturday. >> given the fact that we've had a great year in the stock market, are you a premium card. you undoubtedly feel this so-called wealth effect by the way people shop by virtue of what the stock market's done? >> well, you know, i think american express revenue has been doing well. the last quarter we posted 6% revenue gains, spending on amex cards are up 8% globally. and every part of the world we saw a slight improvement going on in the third quarter. and we're more than just about affluent consumers. we have the largest number of small businesses as card members as well here in the u.s. we track the small business sentiment as well. and in all of our conversations with small businesses, you know, there's lots of concerns but the
single biggest question they have is, can we help them find more customers? can we help small businesses grow in a sluggish economy. coming back to, it that's what we -- we're thinking of a few years ago when we created small business saturday. >> i've got to tell you, some of the ones i frequent, local enterprises, are already sending notes, it's small business saturday coming up, please support us. they do use it as a method of outreach. we were talking about jcpenney and significant discounting there and across the retail space. when that kind of pressure is coming from the big guys, do the smaller ones have a chance? >> i think they do. small businesses compete on value. we'll ton see discounting by all the big retailers between now and the holiday season. the longer it goes on, the more discounting goes up. but selection possibly goes down. what small businesses focus on is value. unique goods and services bought on the main street around this
country providing personal service. also when we surveyed merchants coming up for this small business saturday, more than half of them are going to be offering discounts on this saturday as well. i do think they can compete. i think we just have to get the word out that it is time to think about shopping small. >> i know you're trying to highlight small business. that's clear in the message you're trying to deliver. it's undeniable a good stock market is good for american express's business, more than any other -- or most of the other card companies, is that correct? >> i'm not sure compared to other card companies. we've seen stock markets up this year, real estate going up. that certainly helps consumers. we've seen good spending on our cards. i think we have done a good job of being a growth company in a sluggish economy. and i think there's more work to be done. we feel good about how american express is performing this year. we think we have good growth potential going into next. >> let me ask you one other question related to small business. if you're dealing with their concerns, the impact of the
affordable care act, is that having a direct impact how small businesses are spending on their american express cards? >> here's what we know. we've been talking to a lot of small businesses. affordable care act has come up. most is what is the impact on their business now and into next year. two weeks ago we highlighted an online forum, a live stream for small businesses around the country to come and ask questions, get a lot of answers. education about the affordable care act was the single biggest concern on their minds and trying to understand the implications on running their business. so, i think it adds some uncertainty. we're trying to help answer those questions. >> is it going to be the grinch that stole christmas? >> i don't think so. i think we're cautiously optimistic about the shopping season. we feel good about small businesses and their position in the economy right now. >> i'm sure they're hoping for the extra 400 bucks your card members are spending this season. thanks for coming by. >> we'll talk to you soon. 20 minutes before we close it up. we told you the dow is teetering
between positive and negative territory. it has now gone negative dow is down four points, holding above 16,000. 16,0 16,060 is where we are. nasdaq is moving farther away. >> among the longest stretches we've sneen a decade. coming up, the wealthy fleeing china as if there's a zombie apocalypse or something. that's not why robert frank has the reason, and he'll join us next. attention walmart shoppers. there's a new sheriff in town at america's biggest retailer and it could mean big changes. we'll take a look at what a new boss means for holiday shopping and beyond. ready to run your lines? okay, who helps you focus on your recovery? yo, yo, yo. aflac. wow. [ under his breath ] that was horrible. pays you cash when you're sick or hurt? [ japanese accent ] aflac. love it. [ under his breath ] hate it. helps you focus on getting back to normal?
[ as a southern belle ] aflac. [ as a cowboy ] aflac. [ sassily ] aflac. uh huh. [ under his breath ] i am so fired. you're on in 5, duck. [ male announcer ] when you're sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. find out more at aflac.com. you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. i didn't know the coal thing was real. it's very real... david rivera. rivera, david. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male aavo: thesales event fedex one rat"sis back. drive" which means it's never been easier to get a new passat, awarded j.d. power's most appealing midsize car, two years in a row. and right now you can drive one home for practically just your signature. get zero due at signing, zero down, zero deposit, and zero first month's payment on any new 2014 volkswagen. hurry, this offer ends december 2nd. for details, visit vwdealer.com today
shhhh! i have a cold with this annoying runny nose. [ sniffles ] i better take something. [ male announcer ] dayquil cold and flu doesn't treat that. it doesn't? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms plus has a fast-acting antihistamine. oh what a relief it is! plus has a fast-acting antihistamine. stick with innovation. stick with power. stick with technology. get the flexcare platinum. new from philips sonicare.
according to wealth insight. analysts expect that number to double in the next three years. we're talking huge growth here. the wealthy are also following their money. one study found 60% of chinese multimillionaires are planning emigration or making plans to leave the country. that could be a huge amount of confidence and capital leaving the country. some say this is a natural part of rising afluntd. the chinese rich, want diversification but the amounts suggest something more. chinese cannot take more than $50,000 out of the country each year so they use gambling accounts and macaw and companies to hide personal offshoring. they're also using the old fashioned way, suitcases full of cash to get around the rules. there's so much money flowing into singapore, singapore is now expected to surpass switzerland as offshore haven by 2020, with
over $2 trillion. one chinese economist told me, they are making their money in china but investing it overseas. not a strong sign of faith in the country's future. >> no, that's for sure. an indictment of their stock market, frankly. thank you very much. fascinating. robert frank back at headquarters. investors are pouring money into stocks here in the u.s. mary thompson taking a look at the numbers. today we started off strong but we faded into the close. >> we're still on track for a record for the dow jones industrial average, but as you mentioned in the past half hour or so we've seen a pull back in the markets. talking to traders, they said a couple of reasons. first of all, the breadth is negative. they said the momentum stocks, like facebook and twitter, have turned lower. on a day like today when you have low volumes, some things can impact markets a little more, have an outsized impact. one trader said there was a market on close orders of a couple hundred million shares, revealed about 40 minutes, and some traders want to get ahead of that. on a typical day that might not
have an impact on the market but today given we have low volume, that appears one reason we've had the pull back. let's take a look at groups impacted today. energy stocks lower across the board, news on the iran deal to curb that country's nuclear program. there's expectations iran will put more oil in the market and put pressure on crude oil and energy stocks as well. the yield on the ten-year acting very well. provided support to the markets earlier as the yield pulled back in today's session. keeping the dow in a fairly narrow range. it was about 50 points before we turned to the downside. now 60 or 70 points for the day. a fairly quiet session. one of the leaders in the dow today was caterpillar. this has been the laggard for the year. today getting a boost from an upgraded bank of america. again, one of the winners among the dow 30. health care has been a very strong sector throughout the trading session led by davita, a
dialysis company. medicare news, rates will not change for the current year. nice move to the upside. as well as bio stocks acting very strong. back to you. >> thank you very much. a couple of individual movers today we've been watching. twitter is off 4%. >> i was looking at the banks. goldman is the best in the dow today. it's up 1%. financials are doing quite well. as i type in other names. jpmorgan up a third of a percent. let's see what citigroup is doing. up 2%. the financials are performing quite well as we speak with about 12 minutes before we close it out. dow slightly positive, up 13 points as we count down to the close. s&p 500 fighting to follow suit. >> we were saying banks have been a major catalyst to this market rally. up next, find out if you should keep banking on that sector or if it's time to rotate into underperforming stocks. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading.
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. i see a world bursting with ideas, with ambition.
i'm thinking about china, brazil, india. the world's a big place. i want to be a part of it. ishares international etfs. access to developed markets, emerging markets and single countries. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal.
joining us to talk more markets, kathy jones from charles schwab. i want to ask you about what's going on with interest rates. especially the ten-year. it seems everybody is fixated as we work back to 3 %. what's the impact going to be as we get close and possibly push through? >> at this stage of the game, we think a lot of investors have started to change the duration of their portfolio, so i don't think the impact going forward is going to be nearly as much as it was this summer. we've already seen people move into shorter term bond funds, floating rate, all kinds of other instruments to limit that duration. so, i think the impact will be modest. >> what's the smartest place to be in fixed income do you think? >> we think in the intermediate part of the curve is where you get the most bang for the buck. investment between four and seven years. you actually get a decent amount of yield for the amount of duration risk you're taking. >> curve is getting steeper? >> it is. >> is it going to continue? >> it's good for banks?
>> yes. they won't touch the short end of the curve. unfortunately, what the rise in rates has done has had a dampening effect on real estate. we've seen that with housing starts, housing data. we've had a nice recovery but it's slowing things down a little bit. >> if higher rates are better for the banks from a lending stand point, if it's affecting the housing market, you won't get the full thrust so what do do you? >> it's a trade-off. asset quality because housing assets have moved up. banks don't want to lend, they don't want to buy securities. they want to lend money. >> who do you like? >> i like capital markets on the big end. look at the ipos, secondary, activity this quarter. goldman sachs, morgan stanley, jpmorgan, i think you have to own them all. i really like the consolidation bucket and i think a lot of that will come due to regulation. >> what is the view within
charles schwab as to when the fed is going to finally do something? when they're finally going to start tapering? >> we believe it's after the first of the year. there's a small chance they do something in december with saying it's a not zero chance but a low chance. it could be as early as january. as they're telling us, it's data-dependent. yellen will probably be taking over from bernanke early on next year. it's obvious they're eager to do something. we think january or march most likely time. >> good to see you. >> be well. have a great thanksgiving both of you. up next, we're coming back with the closing countdown. we're watching the dow. watching 16,000. watching the nasdaq try to close above 4,000 for the first time since the year 2000. and after the break, we'll break down what walmart ceo shakeup ahead of black friday says about the outlook for the world's largest retailer. and the holiday shopping season. (vo) you are a business pro.
you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (aaron) purrrfect. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro. stick with innovation. stick with power. stick with technology. get the flexcare platinum. new from philips sonicare. losing thrusters. i need more power. give me more power! [ mainframe ] located. ge deep-sea fuel technology. a 50,000-pound, ingeniously wired machine that optimizes raw data to help safely discover and maximize resources in extreme conditions. our current situation seems rather extreme. why can't we maximize our... ready. ♪ brilliant. let's get out of here. warp speed. ♪ became big business overnight?
♪ like, really big... then expanded? ♪ or their new product tanked? ♪ or not? what if they embrace new technology instead? ♪ imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile. a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. welcome back to the floor of the new york stock exchange as we get you set for the closing countdown. major averages, milestone day. nasdaq earlier today did top 4,000 for the first time since the year 2000. it has been that long. dow jones industrials hanging on to 16 sthou. remember i said there was strength in goldman sachs today. the banks across the board
helping matters. certainly, a lot of focus today on walmart. news that mike duke is out. doug mcmillan is in. as effective on february 1st of 2014. walmart shares holding up quite well throughout that news today. up 0.75%. another area i've been watching, an interesting story to keep your eye on between now and the end of the year, is the performance of the social media stocks. remember, the quiet period for twitter ends in just four trading days. there will be a lot of activity from wall street, a lot of talk about where this company is going in the days, weeks and months ahead. there's twitter today, down almost 5 %. take a look at the other names. facebook under pressure, as is linkedin, yelp and pandora. let's bring in peter costa, the executioner is how i refer to you, a governor on the floor. give us your view on where we go between now and the end of the year. i had a gentleman on my program this afternoon who told us, the
traders and i, that we got 100 more s&p points coming. >> i would not disagree with that. i think that might be -- might want to spread that out a little bit. i do think we're going to see 2,000 in the s&p. i don't think we'll see it until mid part of next quarter next year. we'll see some dips because the market is -- you know, when you see the nasdaq trading close to 4,000, and it hasn't been there since 2000, you have to remember when that was. it was the dotcom bubble. there were a lot of reasons the nasdaq composite was there. i don't think we're in a frothy market but i think it's getting close to that in that area. >> how meaningful are these milestones? >> they're numbers. great for you guys on tv but as far as investors, they're looking for percentages, what their gain is on the year and what their investments are. >> you bring up what it means to investors. how significant is it if the average investor, the average joe, looks up, they're
underinvested, they see these milestones, another record and maybe they want to get in. >> they are starting to get in. that's one of the things you're seeing. that's a little scary. that's a little scary when you start seeing retail investors get back in the market. >> thanks. peter costa, have a good thanksgiving. second hour of the "closing bell" begins right now with kelly evans. thank you. trading day coming to a close. business day continues and it is another record day on wall street. the dow closing at another fresh high. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans. here's how we're finishing the day. dow managing to be positive, barely 12 points. that does enough to put it at record high. the nasdaq adding barely three points. s&p down. now, the nasdaq making headlines, trading above 4,000