tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg August 5, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EDT
>> the fed is hiking pretty aggressively into an economy that is slowing down. >> we are going through a period where the economy appears to be weakening. >> what i worry is that on the others the fed was too fast, and too much. >> they essentially must hike and must tighten policy if they don't see inflation coming down to 2%. >> come on. we are going to go into recession. major economies are going to go into recession. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan
ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: behave yourself. you know where this is going. from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning. this is payroll friday. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures unchanged on the s&p. the data 90 minutes away. tom: it's going to be interesting to go we need the headline data. you need to go right to wages. that seems to be with the debate is. that seems to be where the dynamic is this morning. i like your idea on monthly inflation data, maybe monthly wage data matters as well. jonathan: what is more important for the fed? tom: the inflation report. in my opinion next week's august 10 report is important, but there will be dynamics within this report that will allude to that. jonathan: lisa, looking for headline inflation to come down, or to remain high. lisa: at what point does the
market respond to this in a negative way? we have been talking about the gloom and doom, and the elite of the world have been vocal about their opinion and we have not seen it in markets. we have seen an incredible rally. at the same time we are going to get a cpi print that is going to still be very high. if it comes down to 8.8% that is still 8.8%. that is a pretty hefty inflation read year-over-year. jonathan: nonetheless, job gains have been robust. the fed in the first paragraph of the statement last week, that jobs report is going to become very important for them. if it starts to decelerate i imagine a lot more people start to become confused about what the fed is going to do. lisa: which is why the labor report has less interesting than the market's reaction to it. where is the balance of risk? is it in a labor market continuing to be robust or the opposite? hinging a bet on the labor market that we saw in the rise
jobless claims at a time when the fed needs that to back away from rate hikes? jonathan: i love it when we are in the same page. market response, that is where the information is. where is the information here? s&p discretionary is up from the jew lows. up 25% from the june lows on a month we have been talking about recession in america. lisa: the one argument i have heard makes a lot of sense. it depends which is -- which consumer discretionary. if you are talking about companies that cater to the wealthiest americans, those are going to be doing ok considering the stockpiles of cash individuals still have. on the other hand if you are looking at the beginning of another cycle, perhaps that holds less water. jonathan: let's get you some price action. futures unchanged on the s&p. and the nasdaq, down .1 percent. in a moment to leasable bring you the day ahead. yields up about a basis point grade tom, i can't get used to this.
$88 on crew. tom: this is very tangible. we have seen this in all sorts of features. besides west texas intermediate the important bloomberg financial conditions index really shows an accommodation. jonathan: commodities have been hammered. lisa: this is potentially a recession call. it is also given momentum to the gains we have seen, because that is a rolling off in headline inflation. eight: 30 am, nonfarm payrolls report for july. tom is right. it is not just a headline number expected to be around 200,000. average hourly wages, how much are they coming down? is there a four point 9% gain year-over-year, and is that enough for the fed to say momentum is cooling? the other side of this is the participation rate. it has been declining. this doesn't make a lot of sense for a market where there are a
lot of open jobs and people have an easier time getting positions. what point do we see this continue, plateau? what does this tell you about the state of the jobs market? today we get fed speak as well. tom barking among them. i want to see what he says about the yield curve. this is sending a strong signal if you look at history. this is the steepest inversion going back to the year 2000. this usually portends recessions and has only been deepening as the fed has jawbone markets in the yield curve higher, leading to longer recession expectations. does he respond to this or hold the course? at 9:30 am the messaging from this administration will be really interesting to watch. u.s. secretary of labor marty walsh will be joining jonathan ferro on bloomberg television. tom: how come he doesn't come on earlier? lisa: i'm curious to see how they tape a message roundness.
especially because they have to basically say a softening is required in order to get inflation down, but the message always has to be, we want people to be employed, we want people to be paid. jonathan: tom, he cannot come on earlier. has to wait an hour for the payroll support to come out to talk about the payrolls report. you know the rules. tom: yeah, ok. thank you for reminding me. jonathan: good, good. hsbc, they have added to this. they say it is time to ditch stocks. barclays says the goldilocks narrative seems misplaced. every rally is built on wishful thinking. it is just whether that is misplaced or not. peter oppenheimer joins us to answer that question. up me out. wishful thinking, misplaced or not? peter: i think it is. you have seen a significant pullback in interest rates, and
the market seems to be were convinced that inflation is closer to ap. given that rates are rising were really the trigger of this market to begin with, particularly the the long-duration stocks, it is providing relief. if it is indicating that a recession is coming it seems premature for equities to have troughed. tom: i want to go to your european constituency. i usually don't do this because we are so american-centric. but this really matters. peter, the theme is quality and buy american. should europe institutional buy side load the boat on america and load the boat on quality shares in america? peter: i think to a large extent that is really what has been happening. for a long time the u.s. has hugely outperformed europe, and much of that was justified by much stronger economic growth in
the u.s. and by u.s. prophets outpacing those of significantly, partly because it has a lot of exposure to technology stocks which you did not have. the weaker euro has also added another incentive for european investors to get access to u.s. assets. so we have seen, i think, quite a lot of flows coming out of europe into the u.s.. and given the obvious concerns at the moment in europe, as well as in other areas, in europe specifically around gas supplies, that is probably going to continue. one thing i would say is that europe has its fair share of quality strong balance sheet companies, and they have been outperforming in the european market quite strongly. peter -- lisa: peter, given that you do see a more dire picture in europe and the u.s., i was looking at your gp calls, and you see europe doing better than expected, at a than the
consensus. and you see the u.s. economy doing worsening consensus. do you think it is time to buy into the european story because have been beaten up so much, because the consensus has been too bearish, in your view? peter: i think we do see a recession in europe. a relatively modest one. there are support and -- important supports that are worth emphasizing. private-sector balance sheets are quite strong. households have accumulated lots of savings. that has been true in the u.s., but they have been run down more quickly. those things don't prevent a recession, but they may moderate the extent of them. in europe there is quite a big physical breach coming through which will help dampen the downside. having said all of that, the european markets are very exposed to political growth, which is clearly slowing. it pullback in world trade growth and a slowdown in china
is also not very helpful. and so i think there are pockets of europe that are interesting. there is the energy and commodity exposure which would structure the positive on, and quite a lot of exposure too. we think people need to be selective and not really look so much at the country or the industry in which they are -- their investing prospects are based, but look more on the quality of balance sheets and cassia stain ability. jonathan: finally, arsenal-palace later. what you looking for? peter: that should be an easier prediction, i think, with arsenal. i am a londoner, so i have to say that. my team is tottenham, so perhaps i shouldn't. jonathan: that is your side of north london, tom. tom: we need oppenheimer on soccer saturday on sky tv. jonathan: we could make that work. wouldn't tom be great on soccer saturday? tom: great success in the euro final. i would be happy to do that.
we are very proud here. tom: do you want to get in on liz and sunak?does that play into what we are going to see with batons on saturday? jonathan: don't take a path on the leadership race, takei. i'm aware they are under the camera right now saying, don't answer that. peter oppenheimer there from goldman sachs. you would be great on that ship. tom: i thought it was pretend. no, you look at the fiction of "ted lasso," it is like real, right? jonathan: this is real life. tom: have you ever been on it, tom --, jon? soccer saturday? jonathan: no. tom: it's good. jonathan: i will try to figure it out for you next season. i'm i pushing you or are you pushing me? tom: i think he could be a guest on there. jonathan: i would love to.
just on a sunday evening, just as a hobby. futures up. down, rather. pay attention, lisa. [laughter] lisa: seriously. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner, coming up shortly. ellen zentner of morgan stanley. looking forward to the conversation in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i'm ritika gupta. china is striking back at the u.s., beijing announced it will impose sanctions on nancy pelosi and her family for her visit this week to taiwan. meanwhile, china is canceling military and climate talks with the u.s.. chinese forces are still conducting exercises around taiwan. there are signs that conditions in the u.s. labor market are easing. the july jobs report is out today a: 30 a.m. it will show that the u.s. added 250 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate held close to
a 50-year low. last week applications for unemployment insurance rose slightly. democrats have agreed on a revised version of their tax and climate bill. they will drop a provision that would have narrowed a tax break for carried interest. they also altered a minimum tax on corporations and added a new 1% tax on stock buybacks. a pivotal vote in the senate, piston cinema, says she will back -- kristin cinema, says she will back the bill. west texas intermediate was trading at about $89 a barrel, and about 10% for the week. there is increasing evidence that a global slowdown is destroying demand in the u.s. gasoline consumption has softened, while oil stocks have increased. elon musk says he sees signs the global economy has gone "past peak inflation? musk spoke at the carmaker's
region's interest to allow tensions to escalate further. jonathan: that was john kirby, the spokesperson at the national security council. from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro counting you down to payrolls. one hour and about 12 minutes away. looking for something like $250,000 on the headline number. futures down on the s&p. the nasdaq still heading towards a third week of gains. yields just a little bit higher by a basis point. i keep going back to crude. $87 now, down .7%. keep an eye on that. we heard from secretary blinken earlier. his words, china has chosen to overreact to speaker pelosi's visit to taiwan. tom: it is a simplistic analysis, and that is what we are seeing right now. to help us through the complexity of taiwan and china, emily wilkins joins now,
bloomberg government reported. i will cut to the chase. i am vamping here off the expertise of an admiral with all of this experience. there are 166 islands of taiwan. the complexity here for the uss ronald reagan, the navy, and secretary blinken is exceptional, isn't it? emily: it really is at this point, tom. what we are seeing right now, it seems to be escalation of tensions. the fact that now beijing has halted conversations with the u.s. over military, over climate, the fact we are still seeing these massive military drills and test missile strikes. and the fact that we are seeing sanctions on nancy pelosi and her family. this is notable because the u.s. has the opportunity to sanction the number three politician in china and decided not to do so after those security
restrictions were put in in hong kong. this seems to be an escalation. the white house asked the china ambassador to the u.s. to come to the white house yesterday so they could reiterate to him that the u.s. does not want an escalation. they do not want to have conflict in that region. we want to keep the status quo. but the ambassador wrote in an op-ed in the washington post, saying when speaker pelosi came to taiwan she had broken the u.s.'s promise to not establish diplomatic relations with taiwan and that needed to be addressed strongly. tom: if you years ago, like 1970, there was an island off florida called cuba, which is 90 miles away in my recollection. most viewers understand afghanistan is over there, even a rock is over there, and most certainly taiwan is on the others out of the world. how is the white house dealing with the distance to taiwan, the unimaginable reach that the pentagon has to deal with?
emily: i think to a certain extent there is a sense that it is not just about taiwan, although that is certainly part of it. it is also about the u.s. relationship with china. the atmosphere in washington these days is really united. the fact that there are concerns about china's rise in prominence, but they are concerned about climate, about human rights, and that there is a need for the u.s. to stay on its toes and make sure they are keeping pace with its economic growth. of course, taiwan is such a key piece of that as the last several weeks have shown. that plays a huge portion into exactly how washington things about the situation over there. yes, it is far away, yes americans struggle to find it on a map, but i think most americans know what the u.s.'s relationship with china is, and it is something of interest. lisa: taiwan's ministry said that 68 chinese warplanes and 13
warships crossed the strait midline as they do these exercises in response to the trip from nancy pelosi to taiwan. how much is this getting closer to a hot conflict where you have two nations stumbling into one, especially given the fact that joe biden is getting increasingly accused of taking too soft of a line on some of the autocrats, whether it is gigi paying or vladimir putin? emily: that is the huge concern. we are going to see things escalate where we are seeing more and more aggressive military action. the white house is trying to prevent that. it is part of the reason biden held that call with xi jinping. it was part of the reason that the statement that speaker pelosi put out minutes after her plane touched down clearly stated that they did not want to change the status quo. they were trying -- trying to give pelosi the ability to have
this moment, to demonstrate unity while also trying to send a bit of an opposite message to beijing, saying nothing has changed. i think this is now the big question. this was the risk that was run. how was beijing going to respond? this is something everyone in washington is going to be watching very, very carefully to see how the dynamic between washington and beijing play out over the next several days and weeks. jonathan: emily, thank you. emily wilkins in washington, d.c. have to talk about this gas price story. how many days are we down? lisa: 51. consecutive days, yeah. jonathan: june 13 we topped north of five dollars a gallon on average in america. we have come all the way down to something like four dollars. what is interesting about june 13 is that on deals topped on june 14 and equities bottomed two days after that. that is, dare i say, a
deflationary story over the last month or so? tom: maybe there is a sharp divide between us and europe as well. i did a moving average of netherlands gas, and it is down two days in a row from painful highs, but the moving average of european gas, natural gas, is totally different than the song and dance in america. jonathan: just to keep going back to the relative story for this white house, have got a better story to tell, relatively speaking, to two months ago. he said, dare i say a month ago given the latest talks with senator sinema? lisa: they have a win on gas prices, the legislative front, how did they parlay this into a win you were talking about the labor market? that is why am interested in what marty walsh has to say. how are they going to dovetail a softening labor market with a strong economy that they need to get reelected? it is always about the economy, and right now people want to
have some optimism in the people they collect. jonathan: i'm -- they elect. jonathan: i'm not ready to call it a win yet. lisa: how much is it the direction of travel, though? even more than the actual price? people have seen it come down dramatically. remember that feeling when he saw prices climbing and climbing. it was demoralizing. if you see the bill increasing and then decreasing, it gives you want. jonathan: is it on their side, tom? is the calendar on their side? tom: i look to november, nobody is talking about. the fed is bigger than september, absolute. jonathan: futures unchanged on the s&p. going into payrolls, one hour and five minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪
in bit more weight into the front end of the yield curve and still an equity market rally. if i told you we moved higher by 17 basis points would you say we had a third straight week of gains on the nasdaq? the fx story is all about the relative story. in the u.k., 13% inflation in the future running through 2023. europe faces potentially an energy crisis at the back half of the winter. is your code to be a better story later on? tom: i would suggest that what
we saw yesterday in britain was absolutely historic going back to john major, falls on through the weekend. i know there is a political overlay. what really matters is the uproar in america is being missed in the united kingdom. jonathan: i wish we could have had a look at lisa's face. it is palace versus arsenal later. richmond is not a thing. i know that you know that. 1.0236. tom thanks ted lasso israel. -- is real. lisa: doordash, people like to order food. tom talks a lot about it. they are doing it more and more despite concerns of inflation.
they beat expectations, shares up more than 10% ahead of the open. lyft reporting record revenues. shares up more than 8%. carvana, not as bad as feared. up 8% ahead of the market open. shares are down almost 90% year-to-date, so it gives you a sense of how far expectations have fallen, how low the bar is. tom: what iscarvana? lisa: an online platform to sell cars. it was hit hard after this move back. the results were not as bad as feared. take a look at the less well performing stocks ahead of the open. a lot of it has to do with advertising. amc, paramount, zillow.
there is not the same kind of appetite in media that we had seen. destination in a lot of media stocks. amc down almost 9% ahead of the open. paramount actually be some expectations on the top line. advertising revenue, though, a soft spot. zillow also getting a hit by advertising, not necessarily just the housing market, but they get their revenues based on the advertising about the housing market. shares down more than 8% ahead of the open. tom: we dive into jobs day now with the chief economist at morgan stanley, ellen zentner. thank you for joining bloomberg. i want to go back to when i first met you, your analysis of the american consumer was world-class years ago. how does the american consumer
fold into? ellen: labor income is the primary driver of consumption. that is what helps households spend, even more than excess savings or credit availability. it is labor income. we want to see that participation rate up in today's report, how broad-based that is. we have had some declines recently which is worrying. that continues to be one of the areas of real focus in this drudge report. i think the job gains will still be robust, they will be slower. consensus is looking for 250, we are at 300. tom: let's go back to what normal was. there was a time when we modeled 150,000 nonfarm payrolls as the run rate of the nation. adjust that now. what is the run rate that we see in a post-pandemic america?
ellen: how many jobs do we need to create to keep unemployment study? -- steady? it is about 90,000 by our estimates, which means we are letting a very hot economy. we are so focused on the job support because it is the engine of the economy. when you have recession fears, angst so high right now, a very weak child support would rattle folks. but what would rattle me is if we didn't see a slowdown in jobs, if we don't see that slack in the labor market return. then the fed would have to do even more. tom: i don't want to wax philosophical, it is not time for theory, but there was a day before 2000 when it was a fully employed america. some have said that is gone. are we looking at this wrong?
there is an america that is employable, and there is a whole ot americaher -- other america that is not? ellen: this will be a socioeconomic debate for a long time. we are focused on labor rates picking up. those will reach pre-pandemic levels. what will not reach pre-pandemic levels is the employment to population ratio. you will have a large chunk of the population that will just be un employable. i've been learning more and more about long covid, not just long covid where you have symptoms over three months, but debilitating long covid. we have been studying the u.k. because they have a nice national database for. we might have a real problem there. a good chunk of folks will simply be unemployable. lisa: the mystery of the lack of
recovery in the participation rate we have seen. i want to go to tom porcelli's point. why is it bad to see high wage gains? why is it bad to see high wage gains, when we are seeing the middle class being crimped disproportionately? ellen: that is absolutely right. from an economist perspective, we love high wage gains. that means you can have strong aggregate income to support the consumer spending. right now, the strong wage gains are still being outpaced by inflation. real wage gains are negative. that is a different view from strategists that are looking at it from a company perspective where margins might be crimped because of high wage gains, but from an economic perspective it is essential. lisa: at a certain point, why shouldn't the fed welcome those
wage gains and target other areas? can they point to softening inflation inputs, whether it is oil, food, components for cars? why can't they point to that and say the way jane is the good part? ellen: i think they will point to that. they have acknowledge that headline inflation will be falling primarily because energy prices are coming down. core inflation, which really represents how tight the economy is, is still rising. i think where their perspective is, is the strong wage gains going to lead to a wage price spiral? there, there is no reason to expect that inflation expectations, an essential element of a wage price spiral, are not there in this cycle. we have not seen it despite these strong wage gains.
they are watchful, but even they acknowledge that real wage gains are negative. by the middle of next year, real wage gains will turn positive. it is almost like you will breathe more life into the economy when the fed has done its maximum amount of tightening. we think that underpins our expectation that the fed can achieve a soft landing next year. jonathan: what does that include for you, a shallow recession? what is it? lisa: soft landing in its basic form, do you end up with a sharp growth slowdown but growth still positive, or do you drop into negative territory? for markets, sharp slowdown, shallow recession, you will trade the same. but market watchers can say i was right, the markets competitive cells on the back. the data that feeds into these
models cannot understand the nuance between is due to pointing to a slowdown or recession? that is why you get such big recession fears. the fed is trying to engineer all of this. we can see areas of the economy where they are very successful, areas where they need to continue. we are not having enough pinch yet in the labor market. we are hoping to see some of those elements today that show we are continuing to slowly remarket gains. but i think a soft landing is absolutely possible here. i will tell you, one thing i've been having conversation with investors, one about negative job gains? i can point back to four times since the 1970's where we have had sharp slowdowns and negative job gains and still come out with expansion for a few years. jonathan: awesome to have you
here in new york city with us in the studio. ellen zentner of morgan stanley. 50 minutes away. tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. heard on radio, seen on tv. this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. china is lashing out at the u has for nancy pelosi's trip to taiwan this week. they shot announce it is imposing unspecified sanctions on pelosi and her family. this morning, china's ambassador to the u.s. was summoned to the white house. andrew bailey is rejecting criticism that the central bank acted too slowly on inflation. the boe recommended central
banks to raise central rights but has fallen behind the u.s. federal reserve and the pace of those increases. u.s. health officials have to clear the monkeypox a public health emergency. that will clear up resources at other things to fight the virus. south korea has become the seventh nation to send a spacecraft to the moon. it sent its lunar orbiter, lifting off from cape canaveral on top of a spacex falcon nine rocket. meta platforms --one of the few s&p 500 companies without debt. meta just posted its first quarterly decline. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in
>> we will get inflation back to target, no question about that. of course, it is very hard, particularly for those on low incomes in this country who are much more affected by inflation, which is concentrated in energy particularly. but if we don't get it under control, it will get worse, and those interest rates will climb more. jonathan: i have used this word in the last 24 hours a few times, brutal. andrew bailey sitting down with francine lacqua. 13% inflation forecast,
recession from q4 through the whole of next year, and rates may need to go higher. features unchanged on the s&p. payrolls 42 minutes away. 2.70 on the 10 year. i cannot get use to crude in the 80's after seeing it north of 100 for so long. big turnaround. down another .6% this morning. tom: right now, julian lee is with us, strategist at bloomberg. we get an oil update from julian lee. i want to look at your oil study, how it falls over to a gallon of gas. as oil comes down, do you assume
that a gallon of gas comes down? julian: i don't think you can make that kind of one-to-one assumption. depends where in the world you are. certainly we see gas prices in the u.s. are much more responsive to changes in crude prices than they are here in europe for example. that is very much a function of taxation. the high level of taxes here in europe are predominantly fixed, so the tax does not change as the underlying price of the oil changes, and that has a dampening effect on any movement. tom: you wrote a brilliant paragraph on opec-plus. what is next for opec-plus? julian: i think that is a very good question.
you can look at what they did earlier this week, they agreed to at 100,000 barrels of oil a day. you struggle to measure that. there are various possible reasons they did so little. it could be the political sway russia holds within the group. certainly, the postmeeting press release talked about the need to hold everybody together, unanimity. maybe that was the best they could get. the other point they made is, they have very little spare capacity. there is very little more that they can add. for most members, it is probably not at all. that starts to raise the question, what is the point of this group?
if they cannot any longer balance the market by putting in more supply when it is needed, that is there purpose just to cut back as things slow down? jonathan: given the supply response, lack thereof, worry about spare capacity, looking at the contract table for crude, we're in the 70's. what do you make of the backwardation? does that make sense to you? julian: i think what people are starting to price and is the recession that is being talked about very much here in u.k. at the moment, certainly looks like happening across europe. whether it will be the same in the u.s., we don't know. certainly there seems to be a slow down and expectations for china.
if you start factoring all of that in, supply growth that is seen from a relatively small number of countries next year, but nonetheless supply growth, perhaps you then start to see an oversupplied market. lisa: how much does this hinge on china never leaving covid zero? julian: very good question. this zero covid policy that china has adopted has held back the recovery very significantly. we are seeing rolling lockdown after lockdown, people are being restricted from moving, companies are not operating in the way that they would do without these restrictions. there is this great uncertainty around what happens in china if
they have a shift in their covid policy, if it picks up again. part of the uncertainty, china's economy is still tied into being a supplier of goods to the rest of the world. if the rest of the world is in recession, that has a knock on effect on china's economy. jonathan: awesome coverage this week on opec-plus. julian: the team did a brilliant job. jonathan: lisa, spot on, it has to be one of the hardest question to answer right now. can you get into the mind of president xi and ask what the demand looks like in china? lisa: and should covid zero be abandoned after the party congress this year or not? jonathan: pick your poison, tom, when it comes to covid zero. the supply chain could work itself out, but you will also
have a lot more demand in the commodity market. tom: it is something that i learned years ago, a general statement, guessing the price of oil is the most hazardous to your portfolio. i there and get by losing money. it is the hardest thing to do. jonathan: i think a lot of people have enjoyed losing money by guessing the price of crude. tom: between now and the end of the year, it could cut either way. just major respect for people like edward morris at citigroup, calm down at 110, 120. lisa: people are driving the same number of miles but they have the more efficient cars. how do you factor in that and electric vehicles? jonathan: were you convinced by that? lisa: we were talking about a
two years difference that we were experiencing these declines. unless everybody got vehicles in those two years, hard to see that that would be the case. that said, there is this issue a better efficiency right now. tom: i remember people gaining the price of oil, a shift from traditional tires to radial. supply and demand. jonathan: futures are positive a tent on the s&p. in the next hour, payrolls report. this is bloomberg.