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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  June 22, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT

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hong kong, and in singapore this is bloomberg markets. >> our top story this morning the fed chair gives us explicit acknowledge yet -- acknowledgment yet that the u.s. could face recession sang the soft landing would be very challenging. they may apply for a key financial license within days. a former japanese vice finance minister is talking about the policy and at the point for your love the yen. -- 24 year low of the yen. >> we are also looking at commodities with crude oil shedding 2%. seeing a broad-based markdown, iron ore below 100 bucks as well. on top of that the statement that a soft landing will be very challenging, will cut to that in a second. let's take a look at hong kong,
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moving on the upside. we have the incoming leader of the territory talking about opening up the borders here, and you measure in order to facilitate travel. they go, that is a look at what is going on, the commodities at the moment with a broad-based arc down, the equities with a mark -- the equities with an upside. >> it seems like, we hear the word recession right now the market is turning more towards buying bonds and selling commodities. it really was that powell statement that he mentioned, the first time really talking about, they're not going to provoke a recession, so to speak. you know what? it can still happen. >> would you agree that restrictive interest rates go to high too fast could drive us into recession? >> is certainly a possibility, not the intended outcome, certainly a possibility, the events of the last few months
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around the world have made it more difficult for us to achieve what we want. which is 2% inflation and still a strong labor work at. -- market. >> just as it goes to show how the session is overshadowing the inflation concerns right now even when it comes to google searches and what is trending, dimensions of the session is at the highest we have seen since the pandemic it. now the year jay powell himself saying perhaps it is unavoidable, the market is certainly looking at that and focusing on that bubble. a lot of central banks are following we heard from jay powell last night. >> this take a look at the -- those in the region, to asian banks about 20 minutes apart, we talk about philippines and indonesia. they are tightening by 25 basis points, though take their great to 2.2 -- two and half percent.
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we look at the bank of indonesia, just yesterday saying there was no need to tighten and that the real fundamental pressures, they're likely to keep rates at 3.5%. the finance pursuit -- minister saying they should hurry up and start increasing the cost of borrowing to prevent it further spike in inflation and ease the burden on low income groups. they are reeling from the cost of living increases that we are seeing. >> if you take a look at when it comes to trying today, that's perhaps why we are seeing asian tech on a tear, hong kong market up beyond the opening story you mentioned. we heard about xi jinping coming out the meeting talking about meeting eco-targets. maybe that means were stimulus is in play, boosting car consumption, tax exemptions and the like. that is where the supporting this market with asia tech up
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0.7%. >> let's get more analysis on not just interest rate decisions, but the chief of the fed policy decision this is chief asia economic correspondent. how serious is this morning from powell? we use the word soft landing would be very challenging, that could be interpreted in multiple ways. >> i think it is significant. is the first time i've heard him saying that achieving a soft landing would be challenging. that is an admission by the fed that clearly economy is on a tricky path from here. to be clear, with the remarks from the senate the alternative would be to allow inflation to carry on allow inflation excitation become embedded would have -- that would be more damaging longer-term to the economy. is messaging on interest rate hikes is quite clear, he feels there is a job to be done and
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they will be carrying on with that until inflation comes down. he is acknowledging the risks in doing so could mean recession. his ultimate trying to pin play on the global economy, sing there is a global slowdown. -- saying there is a global slowdown. >> the question is if the market will believe those words, what about the signal for the global economy? >> you have people like citigroup talking about they could percent chance of a global -- talking about a 50% chance for a global recession. there is a drag on global growth, he looks into the bed absolves -- fed themselves they city want to achieve a soft landing. then he says there is a potential for another 75 basis point move perhaps by the and of the year they will be adjusted by 25 basis points. the point of all that, you take
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a while, there is a monetary policy lag, there is a wild for interest rate hikes hit consumers. we will not know about how fx consumers for five months -- how it fx consumers for five or six months from now. the global story of slowing global growth people are talking about a increased chance of global recession. >> just talked about indonesia, the interest rate decision twyman are now, -- 20 minutes from now. >> the philippines are probably expected to go, there inflation is the highest since 2018, be the last meeting before he is off the finance ministry. there is an inflation story there and that is why they expect a hike. it is low but different, core inflation remains somewhat subdued. there is still a focus on the growth story there. to qe4 under the -- to keep a
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floor under the economy. the challenging part of indonesia is you have a cheaper currency -- there might be a surprise hike out of jakarta today. the consensus is they will stay on hold, no need to panic in terms of future rate hikes. it is interesting given what the fed is doing, emerging seems to be navigating it pretty ok. >> let's bring in david, our strategist ahead of these key rate decisions in southeast asia, have you look at the pace of this morning -- the peso this morning? >> is obviously weakening this year, the rupiah is outperforming the peso. the key reason for that is the current account different, philippines is expanding, it will be over 19 billion this year, i heard 16 earlier.
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is because the commodities, ironically even though the bank of indonesia may -- the odds are rupiah will outperform the peso for the remainder of the year. >> just tell me here we have other emerging-market asian currencies under pressure as well. we look at the philippine peso as well. others are feeling it, why? >> anyone that is slow on raising rates, thailand is under pressure. these current account deficits elevated oil prices and elevated quality prices. you see the rupiah under pressure because of that. the good news for thailand, the pickup may come towards next month, starting next month is there scrapping entrance requirements for vaccinated tourists. there may be a slight turnout.
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overall anything that has a current account deficit is still under pressure in this environment. >> fx and rates strategist, counting down to the key rate decisions today. speaking of asia tech, we see a little bit of green on the board. we are seeing a little bit more, people underperforming, stocks underperforming here. we look at the auto, all these carmakers really benefiting from these talks of talk -- tax exempt is when it comes to buying cars. they want to boost consumption when it comes to buying cars. alibaba containing 1% after concerns of a crackdown on online pharma companies on the flipside you see livestreaming ones also facing some crackdown risks here when it comes to guidelines down 1%. let's get to the first word news with vonnie quinn. >> u.s. trade representative
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catherine hyde with $300 billion of chinese imports are significant leverage and useful negotiations. she made the comment whether to keep the duties in place. speaking the -- is picking a lawmakers saying there is limited to what can be done. >> the china tariffs are, in my view, a significant piece of leverage. a trade negotiator never walks away from leverage. we need to use our tools more effectively. we need new tools, we need an entirely new approach. >> china has a new plan to promote what it calls help -- and fintech sectors. beijing has promised to unwind its sweeping crackdown that has hit every sector from online education to gaming. the prime minister says the country's economy has completely collapsed annually path forward
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is a agreement with the imf, parliament is unable to import fuel because a heavy debt. specials -- officials talking to --. china, india, japan helping to secure eight. >> officials in afghanistan say the death toll is rise after the earthquake destroyed thousands of homes, killing these 1000 people and injuring more. it sets up a huge military crisis in a country or defacing a crumbling economy and hunger, the taliban leaders made a rare public appearance depleted the international community. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. >> look right here, bloomberg markets were look at this mass exodus from chinese developers offshore bonds.
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part of them downgraded to junk. >> telling us why they are underweight in equities and u.s. credit despite a near-term recession that is unlikely, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> really get a deep down -- when the financials are greatly ability to apply credit. i didn't expect that to happen this time. i expect a mild recession like
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1990 or 2001. alec the deep recession of 1774. >> i think we are now back into a period where it does matter, where the fundamentals of earning and the fundamentals of margins in the fundamentals of inflation, interest rates and put that altogether in terms of appropriate evaluation models would make a big difference for investors going forward. >> former investment strategist of goldman sachs. we'll be hearing from bloomberg opinion contributor, there is a bond market advancing a last 20 flowers were seen a one present moved to the up yard -- last 24 hours we have seen a 1% move to the upside. >> a bit of a freefall when it comes to yields, we have seen that across asia this morning. joining us a j.p. morgan asset
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management, seems like recession is building, the first ignores me from jay powell that maybe it is imminent -- first acknowledgment from jay powell that it may be imminent. how much way does that have? >> given the elevated inflation and the fact that the fed needs to 10 further to contain it we definitely see -- to contain -- the fed needs to tighten further to contain it, the household balance sheets could contain some of those risks more paypal -- problem next year. >> you have equities, where you seeing opportunities elsewhere? >> giving our expectation of growth being subdued at the start of next year and inflation being elevated think there is more downside risks to both earnings and margins. we have moved underweight to
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equities, currently we have overweight cash and within the current environment is a defensive position. >> you say that may not be a inflation -- recession this year, but in an earnings recession is very much in focus. >> even though a full-blown economic recession is possible at the moment, you think about where growth is going and also the fact we have higher labor costs, higher commodity costs, that is likely to weigh on margins and earnings. >> the earnings is nothing like we have seen, it is not priced in for your view, else's the market pricing in on top of that? an earnings recession then perhaps an economic recession. >> we think some of the weakness earnings is already in the price come if we are having an economic recession we think there is more room for equities to go from here. >> looking at the year-to-date performance were showing a chart
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on cross assets come if you rate the best to the worst really was energy, oil, the dollar, then you have the likes of gold. as a get lower than that it is 10 year treasuries in the s&p. is there anything that could change this narrative for the rest of the year? do you think anything could shift? >> we are looking for environments where growth is cooling, inflation remains elevated. that ranking is unlikely to be changed, we still think commodities low to relatively better in this environment. how it affects income assets and read the bond would be equities. >> you think commodities gestapo form given a recession risks building right now? >> you look at the commodities market including the oil products market the inventories low. there is room for it to move higher if we have a squeeze on the supply side. >> with all that said in terms of the economic conditions, not
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to china, you must have a different strategy then, i noticed you are a more positive on chinese equities and perhaps a bit more on tech as well that is a big one. >> we are moving more constructive on chinese equities. we think that in the environment where global growth is slowing, we're seeing china's economic side as well as a paul side -- policy side moving the other direction. we are seeing more positive more diverse stance from the policy makers in the tech sector as well. we think that could be court. -- core. >> what will it take to be bullish? does a housing sector have to come back in a sick of the way to be optimistic on china -- have to come back in a significant way? >> would have to see the pent up demand with the pent-up demand with income function. >> what about credit?
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>> credit overall we look at the u.s. we are turning more cautious, the current spread levels are not that attractive given elevated recession risks. relative basis where we are seeing potential heading into a recession we do prefer the higher-quality assets. the relative basis would be investment rates, high yield, equities. >> i think a recession is probable now, do i think we have seen a peak when it comes to u.s. treasury yields? >> there are more risks right now, there still room for to move higher if we see higher inflation coming through, and more hawkish fed, deftly growth concerns take hold we could see it move lower from here. >> thank you for joining us from j.p. morgan asset management, will be taking a look at the market and see what is going on equity wise and beyond. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> here is your commodity check this morning mostly red, brent crude extending those losses that 3%, went away for brent, iron ore futures down 2% allow concerns about the recession risks as well as the steel inventories in china, copper a tent straight day of lot -- 10th straight day of losses. boeing ceo says supply chain constraints and aviation sector could persist today see her as the raise rates to keep up with surging travel demands, he talked about the post trend of -- pandemic travel boom is stable. >> increase in demand as articulated by every customer we have around the world suggest
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that when a flight gets canceled , or supply is reduced the bookings just about another month. in other words the demand remains know it is supplied try to keep up with demand. >> let's talk about supply it has been a major issue dudley for your customers, for you, -- a major issue not only for your customers but also for you. when will be fixed? >> it is not clear to me when it will be fixed. what we have to attend to suggest it will not be fixed until the end of next year. the real issue, we have a very large and sophisticated and somewhat fragile supply chain behind the airplane manufacturers. just as fragile, turns out are the operators themselves, the airlines and the ability to staff up with calls -- pilots, ground crews, maintenance crews.
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hardly a week goes by weakness see some implication of them not being able to keep up with that supply-side. i think this will last for a while. >> the fed chair will be joining congress at a later on and he'll be giving testimony on capitol hill. the impotence -- emphasis at the moment is that that, asking the fed to deal with the inflation, the supply chain -- supply-side problem we are dealing with, do we need a recession to fix it? >> i would not use the word recession, i am not sophisticated enough to do that. on the other hand slowing things down a bit would be helpful to a lot. it is not affect every industry equally. in our case we do compete with other industries on certain disciplines, software developers, data analytics, capitation work etc., and those instances if we see a softening of demand it would be helpful to us with the respect to the retention of our people and recruitment of new people to deal with growth. >> you've had huge operational
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challenges, the max program has been one of them, we do not know where the triple seven x is going to go in without will be certified. you have a grip on this, do you feel you have a handle on what is happening in the kind of timeline you're looking at the fix these problems? >> i absolutely feel like we have a grip on it. we have been very deliberate about axes and our attention to deep -- about fixes and our attention to detail with the faa, our counterparty. we have made progress with every step of the way and have had transparency with everybody every step of the way. regulators around the world, while that is uncomfortable was always necessary to regain the trust. >> checking on some of the movers that we have, about an hour into trading for china rick keeping an eye on the biggest property developers in china --
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we are keeping an eye on the biggest property developers in china, pledging to help the biggest property developers as we see the focus on covid zero in the country. we are seeing some support the biggest names today, looking at auto stocks in china there likewise jumping as well with this about to boost car consumption we are seeing gains across the board here. moving now to the neck sector we are focusing on this morning energy stocks these are slumping this morning in asia. this is with the recession risks getting back into market sentiment them a big losses particularly in the names in korea. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there.
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rishaad: this 11:29 and we have
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traders with their lunch break with the market closing for the hour long lunch. nikkei is just about flat. he got a boost from the yen. decided that it was ¥135 79. fed chair jerome powell's comments from the risk of a recession. ivanka: dollar-yen continues to be in focus. -- yvonne: dollar-yen continues to be in focus. the topics and nikkei or pre-match flat. take a look at this chart. when it comes to foreigners looking up the market, they are basically tapping out, selling a record amount of japanese bonds. there's a lot of concern about the boj. do they have the capacity to really cap these yields as we see rates surge globally. hitting 4.8 trillion yen.
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rishaad: let's try to make sense of this and make sense of the impact of the yen as well. the research into two chairman, he is also a former vice foreign minister for international affairs. finance minister and asian development back. -- bank. vicki for joining us. what is the immediate impact of what's going on with the yen, on this there a line in the sand as to how low it can go and what the authorities there are actually comfortable with? >> i thick it's difficult to tell where it goes. what it creates for this yellow -- this level of yen to dollar and also to the rates, it's almost 50 years old. it's a great negative, but the activity has further depreciated
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only could be coming back. yvonne: we just had the central bank governor talk about how low it could go now is actually posing a negative impact on the economy or do you think that this is the reflation that japan has been waiting for? >> this price increases based on the import price increase, which is higher oil and commodity prices, food prices because of demand pickup. but those are different yen depreciation which has imported prices. but what the issue is is the wage increase based on the increase of the wages and profit, japanese -- should not be the imported price of
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deflation. so i don't think this is good for the japanese economy. generally speaking, the currency over the country should be high in chancery and lower. if it 75 per dollar for finance, it is negative. but yen currency should be generally better to stay at the higher level. to have more processing power over countries. that should be appreciated or evaluated well by the market. rishaad: you mentioned 75 years ago when you are vice finance minister, does this reflect the state of the japanese economy in any way? maybe it has gone a bit too far, but what would be the right kind of level for the yen in your view? >> it's very difficult to determine, but the movement and
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the level of the yen was too much. so, this time, the fed may be including the trade surpluses coming down. also service trade, which is tourist service. it's not here because of the covid. and people's attempt to keep the dividend, income abroad so it doesn't come back. there are many elements. in the monetary policy stands. these are translated to depreciation. so it cap be said that it is the best on the fundamentals. but at the same time it can be
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overshooting. so there is no reason it should be 135 or 140. the reason it could be coming back in the future. yvonne: how do you see the boj in the finance ministry coordinating to deal with this weaker yen, and what sort of measures should be taken this time around? >> it's very clear from mr. kuroda's comments that the boj is still looking at the reflationary pressures and especially when it has depreciated. they say it's not the target, but they are also too worried about the pressures on the wages and also the economic activities so they wouldn't change their minds. but i think it was good in 2013
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and after the global financial crisis. but continuing that many elements, but i don't know what to do. never the elements of depreciation, and also the government bond is easy to issue and easy to finance too much debt with the government, and they are being lost and also the spread is smaller, so it is difficult. also, the market functions of long-term interest rates. so there are many, but i think it's good for the boj to change her. rishaad: there are many reforms in the japanese economy over the years, and we've got the prime minister out with a new capitalism and economic and financial management reforms. what do you think needs to be done? what would -- what would be on your agenda, top of your list?
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>> the japanese economy should take a vantage of income or profit. there are many good products that could be sold at higher prices. but they tend to try to sell the goods for lower prices. but it is that mistake. i think it's rare to avoid too much dependence on the policy of the government. it's not issuing the demand and supply or production cap because the senses the causes the private sectors demand decreases based on the increase of the public debt in public spending. but the efforts for company so that they could take more
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value-added for the market. with the government can do is more limited. yvonne: i have to ask you if this weaker yen continues in the boj continues, how wlt impact currency markets, and how are you putting a coordinated intervention? is that a likelihood to try to stem the decline? >> it is very difficult unless there is a movement of the market. otherwise, i don't think it's easy to get the coordinated intervention. but the investor intervention shouldn't be eliminated as a possibility. i don't know what the authorities are thinking, but i intervened in the market by $170
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billion. and it was 78. it was a huge gain. at this moment, many people are in the markets and they know like the stronger yen and weaker dollar. as just the person to the import and they generally don't like the yen, weaker yen, currency or these type things. so the reserve has the movement. so we should not eliminate it. that is my general comment. yvonne: the chairman and former japanese vice finance minister
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joining us from tokyo. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: federal reserve chair jay powell gave his most exclusive acknowledgment that see rate hikes could tip the economy into recession. he said a soft landing would be very challenging. he made no direct reference to future height since he based a barrage of questions about recession risks. >> would you agree that the interest rates go to high too fast? quite certainly a possibility. it's not are intended one, the events of the last few months have made it more difficult for us to achieve what we will already, which is 2% inflation and still a strong labor market. >> he is criticizing sanctions for economic pain. she did not exclusively mention the u.s. but said seven nations are weaponizing the world economy.
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he cautioned against confrontation and suggested that nato was responsible for antagonizing russia. the bank of korea says negative impacts on growth from rate hikes will be limited. a senior deputy governments said prolonged inflation remains a risk and must maintain to preemptive policy. they jumped 9.7% from one year earlier. they are hiking up by 50 basis points of next month's meeting. european union leaders are planning to give ukraine the green light to become a candidate. it follows an intensive campaign by ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy. the decisional come at the eu summit in brussels starting thursday. rishaad: let's check in with the markets. having looked in at the commodity side, we are really seeing pressure. >> have brent crude down around its lowest in about a month.
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we have iron ore dropping. so the concern as we see is also reflected in treasury trading is that recession is on the horizon and we saw acknowledge from fed chair jay powell. other concern emerging because we heard from president xi overnight, he did put forward the progress policies, but that gives us another concern that we could see a supply would demand in the market. let's flip the board to check in on how haven assets are performing, keeping a particular watch on the end. it is strengthening against the greenback. we could still see them move back to that 137 mark if we do see yields and oil rebounding. that is a 13 year low for the currency. they struggled to break beyond that level of 20,000.
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hang seng is one of the highlights because it is a little bit higher. could see the quarantine policy being reviewed. yvonne: we will see, i'm not holding my breath. going up the latest after monday's cut country garden to junk with beijing struggling to find ways out of the ongoing housing slump. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: chinese markets are in the green but continue to watch what's going on in the credit spaces as well. take a look at what happened with them. you are basically seeing the yield on the chinese developer bonds. those are not typos. the chief strategist calls it insane. just some of the yields right now. they are in four digit percentages. max exodus two point now is what he called for chinese developers. rishaad: country garden getting downgraded to junk. let's have a look at all of that. over the last 12 months is the record. looking at china credit editor. what gives?>
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>> we are really moving to a second phase and stressed in china's market. we are seeing this very friendly spread from those classic stressed candidates. the evergrande, highlighted into some of these firms that were once really resilient. so these two downgrades that we have seen have a selective default that are partially stabbed developers. as well as country gardens. this is china's largest developer by contract of sales. we really are seeing the shift to some of these really strong players that were once unimaginable as being victims as part of the crackdown. yvonne: east asked me this question all the time, what is the next thing the watch? what's the next step, payment?
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what's the one watch? >> there's a couple of different big-ticket items. it would be what happens with country garden, what happens with these other state owned enterprise developers. greenland, they are being watched very closely. and in the broader space the china how you -- the china high yields. we look at the macau and the conglomerate names, it looks like the entire high-yield is really under so much stress. so it's another want to watch. moody's is flagged it doesn't have enough to cover its short-term maturities that come through this year and it has been a really radical repricing of risks. rishaad: our bloomberg china editor. looking at the chinese markets moving to the upside. president xi jinping came out and said that they really are
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trying to meet their economic targets, pledging to do so, this despite zero-tolerance to compacting covid. their weak housing market, but certainly we are moving up with those. the first since the april meeting. perhaps this lending a little bit more tech. also getting a bit of a bounce here in hong kong. >> let's bring in our asia china markets reporter on the policy report we have been hearing. does the rally still have staying power? is the rhetoric going to be transited to some sort of action? >> there have been a lot of positive comments about supporting the platform economy, and also we got this news that it is finally getting its license.
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on the other hand the message is a little bit makes for the regulated sector. for the live streaming sector we are getting the section on the live stream. and owned by alibaba njd, they had some concerns there yesterday afternoon about whether the government abandoned selling products online. so far, it's a mixed message in the market is waiting for more government comments, especially the sales regulation, and also what they are going to do to the livestreaming platforms in terms of tighter regulation. but having said that, despite the mixed message in terms of the regulation on technology sector. we are seeing the market come down a little bit this morning, so everything has, for example,
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it is really trading with little change after a slump yesterday. so that is the update so far. rishaad: this is wishful thinking, but we are hoping for this, yvonne and i, and everybody really. hong kong, we are going to get a reopen plan soon, but are we getting a bit of a bit of abuse today for equities from incoming chief executive's comments? >> is interesting, everyone was looking forward to that. but we are seeing the retailers in hong kong having change so far. so i think people need more concrete evidence from the new leadership in the border reopening. that's for the retailers in hong kong and for them to really
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rally. yvonne: thank you. our china markets reporter there. we have plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: things we're walking -- watching out for, fed stress tests. the timing on the back of what has been hawkish central-bank talk. does it mean for not just market liquidity, stagflation, rising mortgage rates, although likes. key thing to watch in the u.s. session. rishaad: this is coming out tomorrow. we have the michigan consumer sentiment index and 50.2 was the figure we had last time. they expect the same thing. if it is that, that's record lows. we haven't seen that since the data series started in 1977. it's all about what jay powell said. it's actually saying that the soft landing will be challenging and that means that china avoid air hard landing would be increased, i'm guessing.
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it doesn't seem like they can actually avoid it altogether. it's very hard for them to walk this tight rope of trying to at least assuage investor concerns. it's not so much about the inflation picture, but it's a growth picture we're seeing in the likes of commodity. rishaad: in the oil price, 103 $47 -- $103 $.47. we are seeing this move to the downside. you would think that people would move to go, but they are not. iron ore, look at that. yvonne: copper is down for a 10 day. iron ore, 2% lower. crude is just below 110 for brent. despite what you see across oil markets, it's the demand picture that's right and center. iron ore and singapore is better at 110. southeast asia, we have key central banks.
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rishaad: we have philippines coming out at 3:00 this afternoon in hong kong time. indonesian are expected to do anything. bank of indonesia governor saying there was no need to tighten until there's evidence of inflation pressure. we have the philippines suggesting further tightening. if you look at the overall markets, the yen is making a move to the upside. the dollar falling back. u.s. dollar yen now down 8/10 of 1%. yvonne: you see that risk off move for the yen into bonds. not so much equities, but we are coming off the highs across stoxx here this morning, commodity still bleeding red, that still the key focus as the growth slowdown concerns are very much top of mine. this is bloomberg. ♪
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