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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  June 21, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT

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>> almost 10:00 a.m. right now in singapore this is bloomberg markets. >> asian stocks struggled to build on the wall street rebound as recession warnings weigh on sentiments, elon musk among those voicing caution, singing a near-term -- saying a near-term contraction is likely. fresh tray for your slowest investors venture out of -- fresh 24 year low as investors venture out of havens. >> is turning sour, relatively policy come the hang seng up by half of 1%. the futures there in the u.s. region, trading half of 1% in the s&p 500 treasuries in the dollar edging up here as well. the fed aggressive monetary
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tightening, designed to tame inflation, causing a recession that is key here as well, that i suppose is essentially what we are looking at right now. are these really, i suppose well-founded, the fears of recession? >> you have softbank, morgan stanley, chiming in saying the have to see more pain to come, stocks have yet to price in recession risks, not showing the full magnitude you have the likes of thomas saying they will go fast as they can and try not to break anything. you have some indicators, whether it is income, employment, real consumer spending, household employment you do not see the recession risk yet. it seems like it is coming, baby not quite -- maybe not quite. >> look at the numbers and then you look at the indicators, then state rising michigan consumer
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confidence at record lowe's? >> it is>> one to watch, you have biden saying is not inevitable, elon musk yesterday kind of counter that. take a listen. >> a recession is inevitable at some point. as to whether there is a recession in the near term, i think that is more likely than not. assuming it is not a certainty, it appears more likely than not. >> also you can see, people are your full, the yen used to be, looking at the 24 year low. the 1% of the down, there we go that chart probably tells of all. asset managers shorting the yen at a record. you have the applicable dimension as well, with
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elections kicking off of the prime minister fighting off criticism of the ultra-loose monetary policy. the democrat party, the concentration democrat party saying it is his inflation. >> the opposition will use it to their advantage eating up to the july election -- leading up to the july election. we see a slowdown here, we're still talk about the 24 year low for the dollar-yen, the aussie yen, the weaker fix from the pboc perhaps a little bit more worry about this pair. >> the pboc is probably taking the yen weakness into account. >> 1983 highs, you saw the -- 1993 highs we see the dollar versus yen a lot of people on the street talking about if you will see more the stock losses. top strategists say more pain to come, let's bring in them for
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our morning calls, most people are saying this is not the worst yet. >> about a 3% drop from where we are now, that is -- 30% drop from where we are now. they are saying in a typical recession the s&p 500 trades around the 3200 level, with a 13% drop for we are now, reduce ea 1970's -- if we do see a 1970's style inflation -- the link here is investors believe inflation is sustained they look at real instead of nominal earnings-per-share. softbank says it will be negative this year, goldman sachs weighing in saying the s&p has not fully priced in the recession risks. morgan stanley saying we are getting done that 3000 points level. >> talking about the federal reserve, perhaps being unable to get inflation in check and saying the -- that cost would be
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in terms of growth. this one comment, we had them saying essentially stagflation is likely because the fed itself is failing to drive the markets like a good driver. >> that is exactly what he said, that is a blunt input. basically what he is saying, people are being quite naïve if they think the fed campaign to rein in price pressure will be a net positive. the reason for that, when you do raise rates you are squeezing people's purchasing power, and inflationary environment we have prices that are doing that. the only way he says you can meaningfully lift living standards is by lifting productivity. and that is what he says is not the job of the central bank. the central bank should instead be driving or using their power to drive the markets and economy like a good driver drives a car, also keeping debt assets and
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liabilities relatively stable. >> let's get over to los angeles. a senior consultant in a wealth enhancement group. thank you so much for joining us. we be changing your name of the company to a wealth preservation group? >> not quite yet. we are a wealth enhancement group, but i understand where you're coming from. it is a difficult environment. it has been a very challenging year thus far. >> what do you make of this rebound that we saw in the u.s.? do you think in a way we have seen a bottom, or do we need to see more 3000 levels for the s&p to factor in the slowdown we are about to see? >> until we see some really strong inflation numbers come down, i guess the declines start to become more greater and
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magnitude, we think some of the rallies we will see in markets will be relatively short-lived. we saw earlier in the year, a rebound of 10%, 12%, we could perhaps see something like that as we head into earnings season in july. the trend is still overall in the downward direction for the s&p 500. >> what is the way you advise people at the moment, as a portfolio consultant, are you talking about, i have been banging on about this, companies that have the asset classes were there is good credit qualities. on top of that perhaps good dividend yields on top of that looking at perhaps valuations. >> absolutely, for longer-term investors we definitely see some opportunities within the stock market.
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we see evaluations come down too much more reasonable levels that we are seeing the last year. last year was very elevated on many respects, especially in the technology landscape. we certainly see -- we are starting to cease more reasonable valuations in general. again we are seeing reasonable solid yields here at 3%, 4% on the investment side of things. for high-quality companies that have solid fundamentals, good cash flow generation, we continue to believe that those are areas, over the long-term that can help our clients. >> what sort of recession proof portfolio now? do you stick to banks, energy, what is your take? >> even banks and even energy last week got hit especially hard, i do not know if there is reset -- necessarily a recession
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proof portfolio. there is always areas in the market that continue to do well, commodities in general have done well this year. we continue to think it is about looking forward were continue to see some outperforming. there may still be some high-performance in the commodity area for longer, especially is inflation continued you -- continues to remain elevated. as a source to come down to money might rotate to well performing commodities and back into stocks or bonds. >> what about other places in the world? do you look at emerging markets, china as well would be an investable, perhaps some of the overhangs have been removed or seemingly removed right now. is it becoming an imperative slowly for value? >> at it you're right, global does serve -- global
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diversification something we stress with clients. when you look at some of the stocks within china, they were in for a bear market, correction territory long before the u.s. market entered correction and bear market. they have had a lot more time to consolidate their valuations have become a lot more attractive than the used to be, i think there is definitely room for improvement, especially they have been in a bear market for a little bit longer than the u.s. counterparts have. >> ayako, thank you very much, talking about the economy that it could be expanding faster than expected, there are also talking about appreciation that is in line that -- so far this year has been fallen about 520% versus the dollar.
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the peso down 6.4%, absolutely spot on with that one. we will addressed smoothly -- we will adjust smoothie with rate normalization keeping interest rates on hold, was supposed to be a unanimous decision, but it was not this time. >> it was a hawkish, your strength see this from the debate in the philippines as well, the incoming governors saying we will not go for anything too drastic or aggressive past august, it will be a gradual path, asian central banks continuing to go through the supply side shocks. there on the opposite side of the spectrum versus the fed right now. the normalization is important, we are still seeing some downside this morning. the dollar movies very much are prompted -- prominent. this get the first word news with vonnie quinn. >> chinese premier has called
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for security as a war in ukraine threatens global supplies, and a providence neighboring beijing stressing the importance of this year's harvest and food security. they bought new lee harvest -- harvested wheat at record prices. >> a russian officials threatening to retaliate in a growing standoff with the european union. the secretary of state -- russia security council says they are warning that the winning of serious negative impact. torrential monsoon rains in india create landslides killing three and the people and displacing millions, it arrives at the end of may and is set to last through september, it the deaths of hundreds of people in india every year, is when the most important seasons for
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farmers in a country dependent on agriculture. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. >> must tell you what we have coming up on "bloomberg markets: asia," we are celebrating pride month and we will be joined by leading hong kong marriage equality activist and talk about how the crackdown on social activism is trying to undo progress. >> the fed president urging central banks to raise rates as fast as a camp of the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg markets: asia," ahead of fed chairs jerome powell's testimony in front of congress, he says that they should be raising rates as fast as i can. >> inflation is high, broad-based, purses that's persistent, rates are well glove normal -- persistent, rates are well below normal coming when the go as fast as you can without breaking anything. >> bringing in a correspondent now, tells about what the message thomas was trying to send, do you think jay powell follow that later on today? >> he made the point that he
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wants to see interest rates going into what is called restrictive territory. that is jargon for saying the point of which high rates to hurt consumers, households, and the like, he says rates are that have much further to go. he does not say if he prefers 50 basis points or 75 basis points, he said he would follow jerome powell up with the option both on the table. the bigger takeaway, listening to his comes is the idea that he was to move fast with rate hikes without hurting the economy, financial markets, or causing undue hardship. the idea of moving fast without breaking things, that is a big debate. not just in the u.s., but globally right now. how can you raise interest rates without tipping the economy over the edge into a recession? it is a big call to see if you
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will throw the needle. >> back to japan for a second it seems like the weakness of the yen, is a policy design of neglect, they are approaching the crossing of the rubicon, why? >> our colleagues were running the numbers he calculated that they could pass the has -- halfway mark of owning more than half the japan bond market, do not know how this would play out. there would be an impact on the securities that you are trading, would change anytime soon? we have the yen weakling -- weakening again overnight, down to a 24 year low. which does not seem to be anything from the bank of japan with the opportunity of keeping a lid on yields. on the state of the economy.
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>> tell us more about, obviously will resolve last year with all this extraordinary stimulus, the one side effect is the housing boom, basically across the world, you're talking about the bubble, the ugliest -- bubbleiest housing market in the world, was this with central bank tightening? >> this is a rather key concern come we all know there is extraordinary support put into economies around the world. mortgage rates to where brock down -- brought down to rock-bottom levels. all that helped to fuel demand, 70 people out to buy new homes. the current -- sending people out here to bind -- buy new homes. some countries are more viable than -- vulnerable than others. nonetheless there is a key
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concern when you have interest rates going up the pace they are it will impact demand. that will -- the idea that [inaudible] certainly a rough patch. >> thank you very much indeed, chief asia economics correspondent. up next we will be looking at this man, the jp morgan possibly crypto, trades multimillion dollars to prop up the digital space. just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> that's get you back to the latest on the crypto trading, the does appear to be charging back, we have a little bit of red on the screen at the moment at least. a bit of a stabilization for bitcoin in particular. near $21,000, investors view that this so-called crypto winter may have passed. it was quite short. >> it was winter all right, the crypto boom feeling like that, after the plunge over the weekend, and the come back to the $21,000 level, as mentioned on the screen a lot of the gains have been given back. what is important, is that there is a tentative recovery allows other coins, -- jump into
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bloomberg real quick there is a reinforcing of this 20,000 level is a very strong area of support and dead and has held. -- did and has held, you have crypto bur -- saying buy the dip, if you do not by now you will miss the next rally. purchasing 14% from sunday, either one of the most popular tokens in the next 12 hours, there is a warning that -- they point out that if you invested 8000 in -- 1000 in bitcoin back with markings -- microstrategy's, just putting 1000 in bitcoin be worth now 375. that explain the caution. >> you have new etf's out there
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for investors that think the coin will fall, you watch this white knight for the troubled crypto firms. >> let's start with the ftx, quickly in the bloomberg there is a new vehicle that allows you to bet on the decline, short going that is down 70% from its peak there is a lot of interest in that. now to the white knight, the crypto billionaire that cofounded the exchange, -- there is a tweet from the head of crypto lender block side informing that they have signed papers for a 250 million line of credit over the past week. voyager digital got a similar loan. a tweet from some are calling the new jp morgan, billionaire who is big in the crypto space,
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is bailing out crypto space in the same way that the original jp morgan did in 1907. he says the crypto world requires him to help others troubled in the industry, even if it is a loss to his current firms. there has been a collapse of terry ust, luna, other crypto related banks and funds that have taken huge losses here. that has accelerated selling. >> su keenan in new york, let's get to the arkham movers in the stocks we are watching -- market movers and the stocks we are watching. one of the eb makers on an absolute care right now -- ev makers on an absolute tear now. >> local eb makers capturing 85%
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of the market, li auto with its price target raising. checking on the aussie copper liners, mixed moves this morning we have a major copper mine in chile facing a strike. it could benefit the aussie minors from that. a quick check on malaysian chicken producers as well, see them surging this morning, will asia is removing price caps on chicken -- malaysia is moving -- removing price caps on chicken. kicking off the election with the weak yen and
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rishaad: the nikkei set it up for the day with the gains. up by about 8/10 of 1%. just fell below the gain line. the deltas are thick. volatility is key. 1.2% to 1.3% the delta from the way it opened to the reach. we have recovered somewhat, we've got at the moment, perhaps that tumbling yen, which is playing on the minds of not just the market participants, politicians as well. the 10 year, we've got the lunch break in
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droulers once again. you are basically looking at the record buying that we see from the boj. pretty soon it seems like the boj will be the bond market. annabelle: that's exactly right. we have seen the bank of japan struggling to keep the 10 year yield within that point -- .25%. it has really been able to do that with curves continuing to rise across the curve. of course with that massive bond buying we are seeing because the boj had already bought 25% more bonds this month than in any other month previously, and we still got around 10 days lesson this month. we are changing the terminal now , the consequences of that is that the boj really comes to a place now that it probably never dreamed at that it would be. when it started the qe program at what was supposed to be a temporary measure back in 2001. that is, as you mentioned, basically owning almost half the boj, jgb balance sheet. that does show us the massive balance sheet. really we are in uncharted territory. the boj could pass that 50% ownership market as soon this week. it would be the first major central bank to do so. as yvonne said, it really means that the boj would be the bond
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market. so the implications of that, we have never seen it before, so the markets live team points out that it could be very unsettling for these other bondholders in the market with such a lopsided ownership structure. rishaad: as we said earlier, the political dimensions, we've got this campaign for the upper house in japan taking place. the loose monetary policy increasing prices and focus, which i think is on the 10th of july. let's get to tokyo for more on this. give us a sense of what the inflation is, because that's really what they have been doing as a weaponizing tool for the weak yen ahead of those elections coming up. >> they are saying it is what inflation is japan -- and japan is already seeing and they are facing the highest levels of
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price rises soon. we do need to note compared to the type of price rises we see in the u.s. and europe, japan is still creeping low, up around 2.5%. that's according to what the boj says. but we have to remember that japan has had deflation for decades, so even a small increase is voted differently here. we will have to remember that japan is one of the oldest countries in the world. a lot of populations on a fixed monthly income, which means they see the price measures and price increases here. yvonne: certainly hitting the households. what has been the government's stance on the boj's policies so far? is a more aligned are are you sensing a bit of clash now? >> the reaction to the boj's policies so far is the house and support.
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they have reacted in that the government has put together the policy, especially in terms of fuel subsidies. so that's for households. but this stance has been that it's the boj's decision in the boj needs to decide this. they have stayed away from putting pressure on the boj to change the policy. rishaad: there is an old adage about how a weaker currency could cause a lot of harm and pain for particularly the middle class. ultimately, could this also damage the campaign because of this reason in this reason alone? >> it's hard to say how much damage it will actually have. there has been a pretty surprising level of support until now. but it is true that the yen weakening, we have seen it knocked off some of his support
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percentage points. so we could see some of the roots going against him. ultimately, no one is expecting him to lose the election. there is a healthy level. and also it remains too fragmented to be a real threat. yvonne: the latest on the political aspects of all of this when it comes to weaker yen. we take a look when it comes to southeast asia markets. the dollar strength story is dominated during the asian session against what we are counting down to the jay powell testimony where he will probably recommit to fighting inflation. the dollar stronger against all of these. take a look at the philippines peso, we are at a 16 year low. the central bank is saying, they are pushing against any thoughts of a supersized hike following the fed. you heard that with bank indonesia and the last couple minutes, saying that there is no need to really rush when it
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comes to raising rates. same for the thailand central bank as well. you have the malaysian ringgit, but also thailand bond dropping for a ninth day to stock and bonds going there as well. we also do have that bsp decision later on thursday. rishaad: we know that the right to bear arms is enshrined in the constitution, but what type of arms should they bear? let's get to first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: they have reached an agreement on new gun legislation, with lawmakers discussing the timing for releasing the text of the deal. senators restarted talks on gun safety in the wake of the school shooting in uvalde, texas last month. the new measures will include better background checks, crisis intervention programs and safety at school. ray dalio has written on linkedin saying it's naive to think the fed raising interest rates will make things better. he argues that it will squeeze buying power. he added that private credit will also shrink to the
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government deficit and -- he concludes it can only contain economic weakness. the u.s. military is banning the use of landmines. the u.s. as 3 million minds it's as it will work to destroy. the exception is being made for south korea. the white house as the mine has a disproportionate impact on humans, including children. human rights calls the move good, but not good enough. australia's wide marketing and research body is posing its physical outlook and shanghai. high tariffs have made business unviable on the most prized market for aussie winemakers period in 2020, worsening relations led to beijing imposing duties of more than 200% on australian products. exports to mainland china prompt -- plummeted by 97% in 2021. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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rishaad: we are looking at elon musk saying a recession is inevitable at some point. more likely suggesting in the near term. yvonne: our exclusive interview with elon musk at the economic forum in doha. our editor-in-chief asked for an update on his twitter takeover plan. elon: with respect to the twitter transaction, there's not much i can say publicly, which is somewhat a sensitive matter. so i won't be -- i am measured in my responses here, such as not to generate incremental losses. >> that seems to be a risk you somehow managed to overcome. elon: the minimization is i think, important. john: has twitter given you enough information? elon: theory are still a few
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matters. you probably right about the question as to whether the number of users on the system is less than 5% as proclaimed. which, i think it's probably not most people's experience when using twitter. so we are still awaiting resolution on that matter. but that is a very significant matter. so, we are awaiting resolution on that. then of course, there is the question of, will the debt portion of the ground come together, and will the shareholders vote in favor? those are the three things that need to be resolved before the transaction. john: what about the general state of the economy? does that weigh on knew anything about this? you described that you have a
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super bad feeling about the economy, are you still in that position? i just said to you earlier joe biden has just come out and said that a recession in america is not inevitable, how do you feel about the economy? elon: i think a recession is inevitable at some point, as to whether there is a recession in the near term, i think that is more likely than not, assuming that it's not a certainty, but it appears more likely than not. what do you think? john: i'm with you. i agree with you. i think it's more likely. can i ask you one particular thing to do with the twitter bid. you are one of the biggest and fastest growing investors in china. tesla, you've talked about it being a period of your sales going forward. you are now buying twitter, the public forum for free speech. the chinese tend to be very
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enthusiastic about free speech. are you worried about whether you could keep those two particular forces running? is buying twitter going to get you in trouble with the chinese? elon: twitter does not operate in china. and i think china does not interfere with the free speech of the press in the u.s., you are not under pressure add bloomberg to -- from china? so i don't think it will be an issue. >> in terms generally of that issue of freedom of speech and twitter, you talked about twitter electing more people onto it. is there a limit at all to who you think should be allowed on twitter?
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elon: my aspiration for twitter or for the digital town square would be as inclusive as possible that it is an appealing sense of use. ideally i would like to get 80% of north america and perhaps half the world or something, ultimately on twitter and one form or another. and that means it must be appealing to people. it can't be a place where they feel uncomfortable or harassed or simply not use it. rishaad: elon musk speaking with our very own editor-in-chief or that tech economic forum in doha. looking at oil prices, wti down to the levels for four weeks. just ahead of a meeting before
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president biden and oil executives. that's according to the gasoline tax holiday. yvonne: you have the jay powell testimony. ethic is nerves of what is going to say, the recession risks, you are starting to see that play out in the commodities market. 3% this year for brent and new york crude. you see brett at $110. gas continues to be in the red. coming up, to celebrate pride month, hong kong discusses how the climate in the city is impacting the fight for rights. their co-founder joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: this is bloomberg markets, hong kong's lgbtq says the territories cracked out on social activism to undo progress on equal rights, particularly with the current climate rather dispiriting. yvonne: our next guest runs an advocacy group to achieve marriage equality in hong kong. as the cofounder of hong kong marriage equality who joins us in the studio. jerome, of course the goal is to reach marriage equality in the city, do you think the political backdrop now is really going to start to hamper their efforts?
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>> i thing obviously we need to take into account the new legal requirements for our work. but deep down the fundamental about marital quality is about humans. it is a social issue, nothing really political about it. so i believe, as long as we do things within the boundaries of the law, things should be ok. rishaad: how has society changed with regard to this with their views on it, compared to perhaps the administration and the people in power? is there now growing risks? >> >> is nothing unusual, you look back on how different places have had equal rights in their places, i think most of the time governments were baha'i society. even talking about, or what's the most democratic countries. even we can have a situation where for the day it could be with the liberal political background and they are not
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right ready until really, for example, people in that place demonstrate a strong support or may be the action. yvonne: we talk about one of the human rights leaders moving through the u.k.. is there a sense now of a threat that potentially all these banks and companies that basically have been quite forthcoming in supporting lgbtq rights that this whole crackdown on security and china is going to have a chilling effect on will businesses are going to view this or support rights in the future? >> all i could speak for as the situation in hong kong, which i see right now, obviously things happen across the border to a certain extent and will have an impact here in hong kong. it doesn't mean that it's all doom and gloom. i just don't think so. i think hong kong is hong kong. we are still in international
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financial center. the government here, it's good to make clear the that it's on its official website, it does say it's people -- equal opportunity for you but with different gender identities. there's a fundamental difference. rishaad: but there's also, of course with chinese culture, however it's perceived right now, and what we have here, to yvonne's illusion, how far our rights being at the moment advanced by a business rather than perhaps administrators? >> i think the role of the business community is very important. obviously, the fact of the matter is in hong kong, and because lgbt plus advocacy, a lot of the progress that we have seen, we really have to do this. at the same time, the voice of the community is very important. at the end of the day, we are talking about the international financial center that has to attract from around the world
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and obviously, there is an impetus for businesses to make their workplace inclusive. they are there to attract people from all around the world. so from that perspective, i would say over the years, the role of the community has been very important, especially here in hong kong, obviously they have been playing a leading role. but i am seeing companies pumping it up and i think that's a good story. yvonne: i asked this question about what the model is. obviously taiwan is the only area in asia where they recognize same-sex marriage. can hong kong ever achieve that? >> possibly, never say never to begin with. i think is still a long road. it's not something that will happen within the next two or three years. i think it would take some time. but i would say one thing is, we took a look at the sentiment here in society, according to -- back in 2020, 49% of people were
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supportive. 36% were opposed, and then basically 28% said neutral. i think if we took the findings, the numbers were encouraging and are still encouraging today. and i guess it was brought up in the situation in taiwan. according to my recollection. just before taiwan legalized same-sex marriage, the support level among the population was a lot more than 50%. i think 40 something. but now that has caught up to it. rishaad: the thing is, how do we get there? that's the fundamental point. we could talk about what's going on, but how do we get there? >> i think more people has to talk about it. visibility is key. more people talk about it. the community can speak louder. obviously, i mentioned early on,
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companies taking notice and doing something. rishaad: especially with a new leader. >> local companies can take a more visible leap in telling the government, look, times have changed and we need these policies to make our place more friendly. at the end of the day it makes hong kong look good. rishaad: thank you so much. from hong kong, marriage equality. by the markets, still checking in with what's going on in korea right now, because what we have is the 30 year low down to the interest rate differentials, and also the stock outflows. yvonne: you see what we've been seeing in the tech sectors in these heavy benchmarks that will see the outflows, given what we saw on the u.s. and last week. this rebound basically in asia. not really trickling in. you are seeing the wand just below 1300. we continue to see 130 six handle for dollar-yen. the peso is at 2005 in the thai baht has nine straight days of
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losses. play morehead, this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. volvos chinese older is going public by a blank check merger with a spac company. the spec says they expect to close the deal on thursday, but
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they stopped trade friday under the symbol psm why. they should raise at least 806 t million dollars to help fund future models. they are said to be preparing to take a stake in holdings. it's the second largest banking group that plans to hold as much is 10% is sbi. it's evaluated at 443 million dollars. in 2020, the two companies agreed to collaborate in strategic and capital alliance where their units would cooperate in digital and other fields. rishaad: checking in on currencies and play at the moment. we've got a lot of price action with this dollar strength this evening with again. z/yen continues week. one of course that has been mentioning we haven't seen this currency at these levels since 2009, 13 year lows, one of the worst-performing currencies in asia right now. again, this is down to the response to interest rates and
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the underlay there as well. but, also in focus, economy focus with monetary policy committee as well. that's a look at also the markets. futures currently moving to the downside. we also see asian indices following suit. appearing before the senate later today. yvonne: there goes the stock rebound. let's get through wednesday. or even thursday. asia down 2% right now. take a look at gmm, you are seeing risk off move, there is a bid for treasuries here as well as bond markets in asia. the dollar is firmer and we continue to see commodities deep in the red. this is bloomberg. ♪
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