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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  June 21, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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>> european stocks are higher by fading into the close. the countdown for that close starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: life from doha, i am guy
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johnson. welcome. i am here with alix steel. she is normally where she is, new york. i am in doha for the economic forum which is powered by bloomberg. over the last couple of days, the airline conference, which i have to say has been fascinating. airline ceos are optimistic by nature. they are very optimistic right now. alix: and then what? i think the broader question we are trying to look at is when do we get a recession and what does that recession look like? if your business trying to find 12 months out, how do you possibly do that right now? guy: absolutely. to be honest, i think from their perspective, they are happy they are in the air. a recession? yes, we can probably manage one of those. a complete shutdown of the global airline sector?
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that was something else entirely. let's figure out what is happening 30 minutes away from the european close. alix: a little refresher on european markets but today's the day to do it because you were seen a global bounce back. you can see up .4%. way more earlier. you are seeing a little of that fate. will that accelerate in the last 30 minutes of trade? as we are talking about this risk on rally, yields joining in that around the world. specifically in europe. you see italian yields unchanged, even lower, but this is what i want to keep an eye on. they are sing that move about five basis points comes after catherine man said we should consider at the boe increasing those rates by little more, counteract the sterling weakness. we know the weakness story has been in light of the stronger dollar story. we will keep an eye on that in
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context of their broader yield story in europe. we have to talk about the higher currency. this type of the euro. 105 handle. it comes after the ecb chief economist philip lane would not really tonight -- commit what the increment of that september hike might be, essentially leading to investors saying maybe he is not saying 50 basis points is off the table, does that mean some of the hike of those 50 basis points for the market, maybe they won't come true. that there that is pushing the euro higher. alix: in the u.s., it feels like a big relief rally after a tumultuous you days at the end of last week. looking at the s&p around the highs on the session, not getting that on the slow side. i by 2.7%. within that energy outperforming with the exception of tesla, the best performing stocks in the s&p are oil companies. tesla having up 10%.
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may some layoffs and permit workers but also more the continued doubt elon musk sewed with the twitter deal that is helping tesla stock. 10, 2030-year selling off the most, underperforming by five basis points. steepening happening. how long can that hold on? that is on the 10 year. guy: kriti was talking about the u.k., how the bank of england may be pushing back on it. another group pushing back on it is, well, public servants stop -- public service companies and their workers. brought to a near halt today. 40,000 real workers walking off the job -- rail workers walking off the jobless of the largest strike in more than three decades. in some ways i am delighted i am here in doha and missing it.
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let's talk a little bit about why this is happening. why rail workers are going on strike. >> well, so the walk up again at midnight after negotiations between the train companies in the labor union failed. this all started with the dispute between union bosses and the government over 4 million budget cuts from the national railways and for london and pay raises with the cost crisis in the u.k. but the government says, look, this 4 million budget cuts we have to do it because of lower revenue from transit fare after the pandemic, less people using the trains to get to work because they're working from home. alix: it looks like trains are moving.
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how bad are the disruptions today? if guy was there, would you be able to get home? >> it depends. in london, it is pretty much the workspace to be in right now. if you're trying to get from one part of the city to another because there's a must know to services and buses are very crowded. -- almost no tube services and buses are very crowded. alix: thank you for the update. the rail strike is one of the latest signs of discontent with the state of the u.k. economy. same policymakers was sacrifice growth in order to bring down inflation. he spoke at an economic summit of the institute of chartered accountants. >> you should be confident we will do what we need to do to get inflation back to target and at least in my view that will
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require tightening policy over the coming months. alix: joining us now, valentin marinov. good to talk to you. how bad is it going to get for the u.k.? it is a simplistic question. we have not even factored in brexit. what are we looking at for the u.k. economy right now? balentine co. -- valentin: likely deteriorate even further step if you focus on the activity data, inflation, the u.k. is a textbook example of stagflation if you wish. from that point of view, the latest developments, the summer of discontent, all of that ultimately will make the pressure for the market very useful hedge. and potentially extending the
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best efforts at the moment. guy: do think the bank of england will have a continued hike even if we enter a recession? if we get stagflation, we will have a massive growth slowed down but we was the elevated levels of and ration. we were just hearing from you kill thank we will do whatever it takes to get inflation back down to target even if we have to sacrifice growth. if we do see a slowdown, will the bank of england blink or will it continue to hike? valentin: the bank of england may have to offload those hikes because it will try to make it more difficult for the ethics investors -- more expensive. that said, the market expectations, 3% the bank -- a bit of a stretch in our view. we think the bank of england at some point will realize indeed the economy may need some
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support as well. if you want to call it blinking, it is the case we do see some further rate hike, something that bank of england will need very hawkish. alix: larry somerset over the weekend in the u.k. but about the u.s. that we need five years of unemployment about 5% to contain inflation. you can see that at several points i've -- 7.5% and 6% for a while. if that is the case in the u.s., what does that look like in the u.k.? valentin: the big risk highlights how big d anchoring expectations comes to pass. it is the case the longer this extraordinary period of inflation should persist, the more likely -- if history is anything to go by, it will take longer to go back to normal levels of inflation expectation.
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this is why the primary objective for the fed and the bank of england is to frontload those rate hike expectations while they can still do that. similar to the u.k., the u.s. economic health is deteriorating where the u.s. could be three months for now. from that point of view, you may argue the bank of england should have done a bit more fundamental -- even so, it is the case facing a few turbulent months for the global economy and for the pound in particular. guy: we have clearly been focusing on the euro, the spreads and spread widening and the fact the ecb is preparing at all -- watching increasingly fractured situation around the supply of gas to europe. the germans are clearly getting very nervous at this point.
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the economy minister voicing his concern today. how do you price the euro six months out these few don't know whether the russians are going to leave gas on or turn it off? valentin: obviously, we have to rely on forecasts and our economics team that is very helpful. but as you highlighted, the conditions in the euro zone -- purely on external development -- very much aside the control of anyone in europe, really. what you would call a commodity supply -- shock -- for that point of view would argue the outlook is likely to deteriorate post a question of how much the outlook will deteriorate. we are back to the ecb and how they manage that situation.
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we think the ecb staff, to summarize terms of spreads and policy and impact for the euro-dollar could be summarized in terms of spreads, the euro-dollar and the peripheral yield spread. two bonds, under our current system, we think the ecb will manage to support -- [indiscernible] we think six-month out, euro-dollar potentially a bit higher. clearly, any upward trajectory the subject to pretty significant risk. especially how and certain euro economic remains in effect downside risk would be increased. alix: i get that. getting the best of both worlds. but in that scenario, do we see
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material dollar weakness or is it just the euro being able to participate in a rally because of rate hikes? valentin: clearly the situation in europe -- where we find comfort is the fact time and time again during periods of stress, sovereign debt crisis or because of external development, global recession, what this into trigger was pretty significant repatriation back into europe. europe is the most popular funding currency in the most liquid funding currency. the last seven years, the eurozone investors close to 7 trillion assets. in other words, if you're looking for a popular carriage rate that is long euro-dollar. if i look from here is further deterioration, the global outlook, history shows us that is likely to trigger
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repatriation back into the euro as if the ecb is successful, essentially, removing negative rates, that is likely to boost the appeal of europe is a safe haven, especially if the ecb is also able to prevent further fragmentation in the periphery. based on that, and because spreads and all that, risks for euro-dollar ironically maybe to the upside, notwithstanding the fact the eurozone may lead the global economy into the next recession. the data and the last 20 years but is the case the market is very heavy toward europe indeed. guy: valentin marinov, thank you very much. what are we going to talk about next? what is happening in the energy market. russia squeezing europe's gas supply. nations within the region are turning back. this is a big step backwards
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from the ever mental stand they set expectations have been raised significantly on that front. how do these fit together? details next. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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>> last year our conventional oil production in the u.s. by 25%, we expect to grow 25% this year. the investment plan we laid out five years ago is the plan we are currently on in the pipeline of projects that we have are continuing. they are very robust. i think robust to whatever
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policy comes out. alix: darren woods of exxon speaking at the economic forum in doha. russia curb flows of natural gas to europe and we are seeing a reluctant return for the coal era. the netherlands is the latest to revise coal power amid there's squeeze with austria and germany. joining us for more as well mathis who has been following these developers for us. when he talked about restarting a coal plant, what does that look like? how much energy can come out of it? what is the significance of it? >> these plans are basically going to be there in reserve for countries that are relying alike on gas right now and are worried in the coming months they aren't going to have that gas or they want to burn coal now so they can save the gas for winter when they really are going to need it. guy: will, this honestly is
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related to the government close to europe over the last few months and years. are we in the situation if these countries do burn coal, there will have to double down on those and bar mental standards for the down the road? -- environment standards further down the road? >> this move is really emblematic of a shift in europe that we have seen since basically the moment russia invaded ukraine where basically the priority has gone from climate first to doing anything but using russian fossil fuels as quickly as possible. what europe has done is -- has started a lot of policies to try to use anything but russian gas and then try to make up for it by going faster and it a later years of this decade. they want to build renewables a lot faster than they were planning and they want --
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instead of transitioning from coal to gas to renewables, skip that middle step and just go from what they have now directly to a zero emissions electricity system. that is something that is going to come slowly. the it is not something that can happen now or this winter. so in the meantime they are relying on avoiding fuel while it is that what they want, it is available to keep the lights on as much as possible and keep the economy running as much as possible will stop -- possible. guy: certainly pretty good news from where i'm sitting right now coal versus nuclear. we are seeing some evidence this week. will, thank you. what if we got coming up here on the show? counting you down to the european close. we will be focusing on tesla shares up after elon musk's remarks right here at the
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economic forum in doha. he was speaking a little bit earlier, giving clarity on tesla's workforce. that interview next. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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alix: elon musk says tesla continues to increase its hourly workforce while the salary workforce will shrink. musk covered a number of issues including his acquisition, potential acquisition, of twitter. >> there are still a few unresolved matters you probably read about whether the number of fake users on the system is less than 5%, which i think is probably not most people's experience when using twitter.
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we are still waiting resolution on that matter. that is a very significant matter. we are waiting resolution on that. then, of course, the question of will the debt portion of the rounds come together and will the shareholders vote in favor? i think those are the three things that stand -- need to be resolved before the transaction can be complete. >> what about the general state of the economy? does that weigh on you anything about this? you described it you have a super bad feeling about the economy. are you still in that position? i said you earlier, joe biden had just come out and said a recession in america is not inevitable. how do you feel about the economy? >> well, a recession is inevitable at some point. as to whether there is recession
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in the near term, i think that is more likely than not. it certainly is not a certainty but it appears more likely than not. >> can you set the record straight on the issue about the layoffs? i think he said initially 10% of the workforce of tesla would be cut and 10% of salaried would be to cut and salaried would stay flat and overall headcount would go up. what is the number? i think there has been a lawsuit about the 10%. is 10% the goal to reduce workforce? what is the number we should think about where you are planning? >> yes, so, tesla is reducing the salaried workforce by roughly 10% over the next probably three months or so. our constraints are not imposed on us by a pattern -- competitors but the realities of
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the supply chain. as anyone knows who has tried to order a tesla, the demand for our cars six -- is extremely high and the wait list is long. this is not intentional. we are increasing capacity as fast as possible. we really don't think about competition, we just think about how we address the limiting factors in the supply chain and in our own industrial capacity? we need to look add to whatever the chokepoints are in the whole lithium-ion battery supply chain from mining to refining to production and self formation. guy: elon musk and the bloomberg
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editor-in-chief's conversation little earlier on. next, we returned to the airline sector. jetblue sweetening its offer again for spirit airlines. robin hayes is determined for this acquisition to happen. i spoke to him yesterday. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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>> stocks finishing up the day in european trading higher. green on screen really cross the board. the u.k., france, germany and those equity markets actually higher on the day, just becoming a technical bounce. you are sing around the world. take a look in the session alone. starting to be a little of f8 in the markets. much, much higher. regan after the start of trading
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this morning. a lot of that fade stemming from new euro story. look on it to buy tick bases, that fade came when you start to see the dollar surge, especially dollar-man. it is all interconnected. let's bring it to the sector story to explain some of that countrywide weakness we saw in spain in particular. utilities, travel and leisure are the two sectors that really underperformed today and those are also the two sectors where if you look deep in, a lot of that has exposure to spain. those are the ones driving down. to the top, a lot of the outperformance will be the inflation story, the supply chain story. the chemical auto part a lot of the commodity have been exposed companies are the ones doing well. let's get some intraday movers. i will start off with leonardo. this is an italian defense company. u.s. electronics unit announced
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they're going to take over is really airspace company as well. -- israeli airspace company as well. good news for the shipping market, partnering with swedish shipping line to build the world's largest hybrid, something investors appreciate. you can see that stop up 7% -- stock up 7%. this one down about 7.6%, a belgian mobile communications company. the telecom you learn -- regulator said there is new entrants that will get some of the access. are placing that risk was way worse than feared, guys. guy: thank you. thank you for stepping in. i am in doha. thank you very much. part of the reason i am here is we have had over the weekend the
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international air travel association predicting the industry basically should be able to return to a profitable position next year. pent-up demand for travel means seats are at a premium. there is need for consolidation. the need for consolidation comes because there is a shortage of gates, shortage of staff and aircraft, which is why jetblue wants to merge with spirit. jetblue raising its offer today. it is part of its push to expand capacity. robin hayes, the ceo of jetblue, was here in doha. i caught up with him yesterday morning to talk about this deal. >> the aviation ecosystem is still suffering from some of the same staffing challenges we are seeing in other sectors, too. the aviation industry, finely
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tuned machine, when you don't have all the right resources at the right time, it can get challenged quickly. what we saw back in march and we made a decision, because no airline was to take flight off schedules and pull capacity down by 10%, but we looked at what was coming up and are concerned our ability to reliably operate. guy: a regulator to say, enough, guys? we're not even into summer yet. >> to me the most important thing, what you see and you're seeing it now, when things go wrong, people start pointing fingers at each other. the customer does not care. the regulators, the air traffic control system, airports, ground handlers on the airline, we have to work together to do that. if we don't think we can operate, whether it is airports or airline in a reliable way, we
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need to bring things down. but you need to do it early. customers don't want their flights canceled the day before. we have to act now. at the airport level or however we do it, we had to do our best to make sure we operate we can do so reliably. guy: how long is the demand going to be around for? the fed is raising rates aggressively. we are expecting more further down the road. the objective is to crush demand. how long is the current demand going to last with the fed doing that or the possibility of a recession coming down the pike? >> we certainly expect to see more fed rate hikes to try to bring inflation back down. two things i said about aviation are unique. first of all, there is still a lot of pent-up demand. we know a lot of people have not traveled for two years and they are traveling this summer because what they want is not available. we talked about pulling flights
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down will make less it's available. the average price of airfares will go up. i do think you will see that demand flow into the fall. business travel is still coming back after a very low space. guy: about the spirit deal. you have version on the block, alaska once it and you are in the running. most people talk about effectively alaska probably overpaid for the asset because of the fact you were pushing them pretty hard. are you worried you may be getting into that kind of territory with spirit? >> no. we are very excited. if you look at the value of the deal we have on the table, we offer great value when you compare it with recent opportunities like virgin america. having said that, we are very
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excited. it is an all cash offer, 60% premium of the competitive bid, and we have a lot of conviction to get it done. guy: what are you buying here? people talk about your basically buying spirit's order book. what are you buying? >> it is four things. it is an order book. similarities to -- commonalities. the gates and infrastructure. we would like to fly into more markets by lax. it is been hard to get the gates to do that. combined jetblue have been spirit will be a better competitor against those legacy airlines. we buy access to skilled people. pilots, in flight, maintenance. we just talked about how we are all struggling. joe bluestein and spirit team, both great teams, bring them together to allow us to ramp up more weekly and by building this
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national low-fare airline, just appealing to a bigger group of customers. our vacations program. things we can bring to more people. guy: robin hayes, jetblue ceo, catching up with me yesterday morning at the conference here in doha. he is talking about accelerating his plan for jetblue's expansion by around eight years. at a time when there are so many shortages, he is desperately in need of the things he is describing. the challenge will be making sure he does not overpay. alix: also, getting it done in the first place. renewed jetblue deal 3350, for spirit to come also willing to divest some of the areas, i mean, how can you vote against that as a spirit shareholder? i'm wondering how it gets done now? guy: trying to put shareholders
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in that position, i.e., this is too good of a decision to turn down. but it is a fine line in terms of overpaying. his shareholders will be watching carefully. other than the industry watching it very carefully as well. i was talking at curbing you at united -- kirby at united. he is watching carefully, ready to pounce for gates. the whole industry is watching to see what the fallout could be. alix: and you are not done, right? you have a lot of other panels in the airline world. guy: yes. tomorrow -- we're not down with aviation. tomorrow i have a fantastic panel lined up. we are here in doha, most of us probably arrived on a quatar
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airlines jet. we also have mr. guaiio. and we have dave calhoun, ceo of boeing. many challenges over at boeing, moving their headquarters down to d.c. what signal does that send about what is happening with the commercial aerospace business? a lot is happening tomorrow. i'm looking forward to those three and the conversation we will be having with them. alix: i can tell you are excited because you're like, "i got a phone call with boeing." looking forward to that. coming up, pop my crackle, and split. the company that brings your frosted flakes is planning to split into three different businesses. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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>> president biden's has he hopes to decide this week whether to move to says been the federal gasoline tax. soaring prices at the pump. it likely would require congressional sign-up and could not be taken by executive action. u.s. gas prices now average $4.98 a gallon, just short of a record last week. russia warns two americans captured while fighting the ukraine could face the death penalty. president putin says they were likely to be protected by the geneva convention -- were not acted to be protected by the geneva convention as prisoners of war going out part of the ukrainian army.
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european union 27 members are set to formally grant ukraine candidate status later this week. this is a first but highly symbolic step on the path to become an eu member. eu leaders will discuss it this week. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. alix: thank you. one stock we're watching is catalog. shares doing grreat! get it? jonathan feeney joins us to break it down. he raced price target on kellogg from 70 to 77. why do you like the deal? jonathan: because the stock is so undervalued coming into this, i feel like management shows a sense of energy for management to recognize that value sitting in the plant business, for example. in 18 months, it will all be
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about snack execution but for now, these stocks have enough power that any kind of breakup is bound to get investors attention. guy: jonathan, snacks i think probably a lot of people understand why this is happening but the other businesses, are they really standalone businesses yet? jonathan: they are certainly smaller. i would argue cereal is profoundly under margined and that is a good opportunity. they are largely enough to be standalone businesses. i suspect there is enough buzz in the space that is a potential acquisition target. as far as the north american business goes, that is a business where pricing power generally tends to improve in a more focused company when you're less trying to please a retailer across three to four different product lines, just try to maximize that one. i think that is a big part of the north american cereal. alix: there's a lot of
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competition beyond meet, how fast do think they can grow and compete? jonathan: it is a great growth business. being more focused is only going to help them. it is a $340 million business. it's large as plant goes and very profitable compared to peer post of this money come independent plant-based business, have more freedom to make those growth derivative investments. i have always thought for years this is been a huge is this in plant and then a couple of buzzy names came about about attention to it. but there is good growth runway. small part of things, 2% of ebita, but something that could be valued much more highly. guy: do we have a pretty clear idea of what the post-covid snacking market looks like? it changed so dramatically
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during covid as we were all locked up at home. how much is sticky and how much is not? how much do people go back to their pre-covid snacking habits? jonathan: excellent question. i think a lot of this acceleration in the snacking portfolio is somewhat to happenstance of people being at home and having cheez-its staring at them. i think it slows but i know global markets, that is not true. there is tons of opportunity where they have a decent -- a lot of this is about throwing resources at those growth markets. as far as the north american market, it is a headwind and maybe that is part of the rationale for why they're trying to create some of their momentum right now. alix: let's go to thecereal part. breakfast is a tough business and cereal in particular.
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how do you grow that business independently? the point of having when it goes bust and have snacks and vice versa. jonathan: it is the historical rationale of the company. all i can say is i the new world , data is driving more marketing decisions. if you think about the consumer, it is not just one monolith. there are some two froot loops means a lot. the kids spreads mean a lot. the storebrand is not as good. conversely, some of these adult cereals have struggled and have -- do not deliver quite on their message of health and wellness in the cereal category. more focus is only bound to help the cereal business. i think more rational pressing -- pricing and strong cash flow maybe so in growth. guy: we have three businesses
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here. which one do i want to hold? which ones do i want to sell? john think of the most attractive of the three relative to where it is going to trade right now. plant has the best growth. i would rank them snacking, plants, and cereal third. the numbers have not been good for the past five and 10 years. the demographics are not super. there is a headwind coming from post-covid behavior right now. i would rank them like that. alix: are there any other consumer stable guys you think to consider this kind of strategy that has the potential to break up? jonathan: we recommend both campbell -- not because we think they're going to break up because the sum of parts value period. if someone creates a deal that forces people to do that -- i
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don't think either need to do a deal to be valuable. what we learned today is when consumers -- when investors are forced to take a look at some of these high cash flow consumer companies, they're going to like what they see relative to the rest of the market right now. i think corporate actions will be well received as a result. guy: great to have you on the show. thank you very much. really appreciate it. jonathan feeney. this is "bloomberg." ♪ (inspiring music) - [narrator] at southern new hampshire university, you can reach your goals faster. that's because you can transfer in up to 90 credits towards your online degree. - i was able to cut my time in half. - [narrator] apply free at
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alix: u.s. stocks having a solid rebound today. i've on the s&p step abigail is tracking that. >> this is a five day of the s&p 500. considering the volatility of last week, over the last five days at this point we are up
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.3%. this was the fomc pop. jay powell talked about the idea don't get used to 75 basis point rate hikes and in the decline out of there, so focused on the recession, but here we have two up days for the s&p 500. today, well up 2%. pretty impressive rebound action for sure. let's see if it continues. as for a big piece of the bullish action, chips. they have been badly beaten down as the components i going everything we use. if we are going into recession in the future, you would expect the tech sector to get hit hard. it has. today, a beautiful rally. an early tell us to machines that make the chips, that is also higher. that is a good reason to be optimistic for the sector -- at least today. later this week, another alleged tailwind or stocks.
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we have the fed stress test. assuming they go well, we have banks poised to return $80 million to shareholders, jp morgan apparently going to lead the way, $18.9 billion to be given out in derivatives and buybacks. bank of america commit morgan stanley -- bank of america, morgan stanley, citibank on double digits. not so shabby. guy: thank you. not too shabby. abigail doolittle on the markets. coming up here, what is on the agenda for the next 24 hours, a little later today, we get a third hearing on the january 6 capitol attack at 1:00 p.m. new york time and we will hear from the president a little bit later on, president biden speaking on vaccinating kids under five. we have also got primaries in virginia, washington, d.c., alabama. we also have the
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runoffs in georgia. alix: truly want to main event tomorrow site from your panels at the economic forum, fed chair jay powell giving testimony before congress. the house on thursday. note miss that. you get eurozone consumer confidence. just how hot is how hot? that wraps it up right here on television. coming up, jane harman joins "balance of power" with david westin. don't forget to join us on cable live on digital radio and at the london area you can catch all of that and we will go to the news in europe and u.k. as well as hit on the key points in the u.s. as you look at the market, nasdaq still up holding on to the session. energy outperforming within the s&p. tesla also leading the way.
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this is "bloomberg." ♪
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announcer: from the world of politics -- >> other countries have people with mental health issues. what other countries don't have is the easy access, easy availability of guns. announcer: to the world of business -- >> this is a different type of market -- financial conditions are tightening and that means you need to be patients -- to be patient. announcer: this is balance of power with david westin. david: from bloomberg w


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