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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  January 14, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EST

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♪ >> there's going to be a push pull between the fear of the fed and the fed moving off ultra accommodation. >> it is pretty clear the plan is to go in march at this point. >> they want to get to the balance sheet sooner than later. markets are a bit underpriced for an increase in the terminal rate. >> the stock market has been extraordinarily skeptical of the fed. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz,
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and tom keene. most importantly, it is an hour of banks. the excellence of fortress dimon. frazier at citigroup has a different story to tell. jonathan: investment banking revenue, $1.85 billion estimate -- billion, estimate $1.63 billion. sales and trading revenue coming in at $785 billion. the story of jane fraser and citi not about the quarterly earnings. it has been a lot of reaching geographically around the world. citi is now announced all markets it intends to exit. tom: mailed that. jonathan: deep breath. citi is now announced all markets it intends to exit. after this geographic rejig over
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the last few months, that should be at now, according to jane fraser. tom: when you do compare and contrast here. we mention 15% over decades with jp morgan. citigroup, what a different look. the last 20 years, -8% per year. the last 30 years, single-digit and lousy single-digit, up 5%. lisa: but we are seeing is them trying to some blood five. it now, the market is lower, down nearly 2% at one point. what i think is interesting is this idea of trying to move towards something that is streamlined while underperforming on the trading side. this is also what happened with fixed income, what happened with equity trading. it seems like a reversal after a couple of blockbuster years. tom: we will skip the got a check now. we will fit that in in the next
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30 minutes. right now, sonali basak us. we are thrilled to continue with ken leon of cfra today. we have identified out here that citigroup is not jp morgan. what is the urgency jane fraser faces to right the ship and move forward? ken: she wants to have a great narrative for the investor day probably in march or get this is cleanup. this is getting out of consumer markets where it is hard to manage those businesses, and they take up a lot of time. you are not going to get rewarded in the stock. so they are streamlining to have a presence outside the u.s. in corporate investment banking and wealth management. this means they will be able to reduce expense. i think that is her big case for the strategy. but it is going to take time to get out of those markets in terms of closing the deals. jane fraser is on the right track. it is just going to take longer than doing just the domestic turnaround.
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jonathan: i want to bring in sonali as well. we have been talking about where she would exit, where she would stay. is that the expectation this morning? sonali: there was a big reshaping at citigroup in the last year, and the idea that this will cost the lives of dollars has been soaking into the market. now what the market wants to know is when are they going to start returning more capital to shareholders and expanding in the businesses that they can excel at. i want to point to some of these institutional client group numbers because the fact that they sell below expectations is a big deal. the institutional group had grown on the quarter, whereas global consumer bank has fallen. consumer banking is where jane fraser has her background and is really expected to grow the business. so the numbers alone show still a need for improvement on performance, especially in trading as investors are going to want to see her hang onto investment banking and trading
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as she reshapes that consumer bank. lisa: which really goes to maintaining talent at a time of talent wars, having to pay up to compete with the likes of jp morgan at a time when you are trying to reduce cost, and you're dealing with units that are not necessarily outperforming. i sick again -- i think again of the equity trading, that was a surprise miss as well. ken: it is, and it is hard to compete with some of these companies that are focused. the other issue at citi is they've got $400 million or 500 million dollars of added cost for compliance and regulations. while some of the other banks are investing in technology, to your point about trading, or servicing corporate clients, they still have to be more compliant with u.s. regulators, and that is costing them. that is willie part of the reason why jane fraser took over last year. tom: why is fic short, trading?
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is this some form of reorg that costs of performance? ken: it has to do with allocation of regulated capital and principal transactions for fixed income commodities or currency. less so in terms of equities. also, for investors, it is hard to forecast quarter to quarter what goes on in trading, but ideally you really want to get maximum trading with the low amount of capital that you have to put on the desk, and that is kind of the environment we have today, very different than 10 or 15 is ag -- jonathan: the team at bloomberg breaking it down. overall investment banking fees up to 1.8 billion dollars. the team at bloomberg news pointing out that m&a was where the action was.
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sonali, i wonder if we got a decent enough read now, looking across citi, gp morgan, and wells, to get a read on next week. sonali: we know it is going to be a choppy week. when you look at the tables, we have seen citigroup fall a little below some of their peers, a little below bank of america, which is investing heavily in investment banking as well, and citigroup was a big spac tanker. the stock market is cooling quite a bit. este spac market is cooling -- the spac market is cooling quite a bit. so what is it going to take for retail banking do turnaround for citigroup as they do all these other very complicated changes? that march investor day will be a pivotal moment for jane fraser. tom: sonali, thanks us -- thank you so much, and ken leon, thanks to all of us -- thanks
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from all of us. the vix solidly through 20, 20 1.37, and we get perspective from scott clemens, chief investment strategist at brown brothers harriman. maybe it is at least a quarter here in the first 14, 15 days of the year. have you changed your outlook since 12/31/2021? scott: if anything, the surprise was the relative lack of market volatility. we only had seven trading sessions last year in which the s&p 500 moved by 2% or more, up or down in either direction. usually in a given year, we have about 20 days like that. so we are cautioning our clients to give them all the transitions
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they can place. there is likely to more market volatility into 2022. that may be a risk. that may be disruptive. i think it is an opportunity as well for investors. lisa: how do you use it as an opportunity? scott: when you get that dislocation between price and value is what the long-term investor could exploit. but that is is not necessarily knowing something more than the market or another trader. it is having a different timeframe for making that investment. so if you see a company stumble in the near-term, that near-term stumble may be an ets miss, i product miss. jonathan: the banks this morning are killing it. year-to-date, the stock performance more than 10%. a bit softer on the morning. some people unwilling to chase this. what advice do you give them? scott: to take the same kind of
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long-term approach. this is environment which is better and better for banks. banks are certainly undervalued in the long run. higher rates ought to be beneficial for banks. as you just reported on citigroup, there are a lot of repurchases within the banks. where the revenues are coming from, when they can get back off, etc. so it is an environment with a great deal of volatility. lisa: focusing on the longer-term, and this really goes to the heart of the moment, which is what is being priced in from an interest rate perspective, from a wage increase perspective, how do you determine whether to say citigroup down 3%, having a really rough time of it over the last 12 months, let's go? scott: i think the interest rate environment is probably the most import backdrop over the course of this year.
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the important thing for markets, for banks in particular, is not that interest rates are rising, but why they are rising. that is admittedly subjective, and the push and pull of markets even day-to-day palace might be precisely that. on one hand, if interest rates are rising because people are more confident in the economic outlook, the durability of the labor market, the sustainability of corporate earnings, that is a benign backdrop in which banks can do well and the market can do well. if on the other hand the market concludes that interest rates are rising because the fed has lost a grip on inflation and they are behind the curve, that is rather negative, a rather disruptive outlook. i think there's going to be a lot of push and pull on that as the year unfolds. we even see that in my earlier comments to tom. i am confident that when all is said and done, this transition of economic leadership away from policy support, back to the more
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traditional fundamental drivers of economic activity, that will take place, but it is not a straight line between here and there. jonathan: thank you, as always. you are looking at these moves this morning, we are down 3% at j.p. morgan, citi down 3.6%, you've got to room number where we have been coming into today. citigroup on the year coming into today, up more than 12%. yes, it is softer this morning, but it is of 12% more your to date. tom: i find the citigroup story absolutely fascinating. wells fargo seems to be getting it done in terms of a lot of challenges and really shifting around to try to do something new for wells fargo. do you have that feeling for citigroup? i don't yet. jonathan: first of all, jane fraser comes in. she's got to work out simple questions.
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complex answers and comp looks processes to go. where do i want to be? what does our footprint look like? now does on from there. lisa: how do you maintain the talent at a time of talent wars and increasing compensation when you are trying to rejigger everything and craft a new strategy? it is really a complicated thing to get not -- to get done. jonathan: kicking of earnings season with j.p. morgan, wells fargo, and citi area next week, goldman, bank of america, morgan stanley, and the rest. we are -0.7% on the nasdaq 100 -- negative zero point 7%, on the nasdaq 100, negative zero point 9%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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> the problem is the fed is in a box. you have fiscal policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, and geopolitical issues, so we expect the volatility earlier in the year, but i think it is going to end a good note on earnings. jonathan: a gift to catch up with tony dwyer at canaccord genuity. your equity market down 28, down 0.6%. we are negative the nasdaq 100, down 0.75 percent right now. cash is doing something it was not doing a year ago. yields are higher on tens by a couple of basis points to 1.72 56%. sonali basak listening to the j.p. morgan media call right now. jamie dimon on inflation, hopefully it will start to come down over the course of the
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year. however, it is clear that wages and oil and housing are not transitory. the line from the j.p. morgan chief. tom: they will parse every word of it as we dash into the first quarter. i want to give you a window into the depths of knowledge of our economics bloomberg, and that leadership is always michael mckee. lisa cook, what a privilege to study under barry eichengreen and david roemer, and philip jefferson at the freshwater camp of the university of virginia. ever the politics of the moment, these two have the chops, don't think? -- don't they? michael: all three of them have the chops. sarah raskin is a former deputy cemetery, former fed governor, former bank regulator. so she's got the background. cook is a very familiar face around the fed. she attends jackson hole every
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year, when they have the jackson hole meetings. philip jefferson has been an academic for 20 years. spent some time at the fed. written a lot about inequality issues that are coming up right now. so there's a group of qualified people. tom: the opposite side is going to go these people aren't lael brainard. they are not richard clarida to. they are not published monetary economist. philip jefferson owns the high ground on poverty. he wrote the very short introduction for oxford, which i have said for years are just great vehicles. why shouldn't we have someone in social economics on the committee of monetary policy? michael: we probably should, and the two will bring great diversity to the fed. lisa cook would be the first black woman ever appointed. jefferson would be only the fourth black man ever on the board. if both of them are confirmed, along with michelle bowman and
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lael brainard, the board would be majority female for the first time ever. there are going to be some bumps along the way. sarah bloom raskin already attracting fire because she has been outspoken on climate change when the fed was lending to companies act in the 2020 crisis. she said they should not lend to oil and gas companies. she said fossil fuels are a terrible investment. pat toomey on the banking committee, who's going to be in charge of her confirmation, has already come out with a sharp statement saying that he thinks she would abuse the fed's statutory mandate, so they may oppose her. lisa: there's really pressing social concern of wages, which we have been seeing from all of the banks, and we know the story for the vast majority of the nation. how many people on the federal reserve, including the nominees,
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are afraid of a wage spiral right now? michael: a wage spiral they would be afraid of because that means the companies raise prices to keep up with wages, and then workers come back and say we want more money because prices went up. but they are in favor of higher wages for workers, and more money going to labor and out of capital. the fed can't really do a whole lot about that. what they try to do is keep the unemployment rate as low as possible on the theory that a rising tide lifts all boats, but there really isn't a legal vehicle for the fed to do a lot of social engineering. lisa: there's an issue as it applies to the retail sales we are about to get. how much are people continuing to buy, despite the higher headline prices? what are we expecting with the fact that each big-ticket item costs more, to get a sense of whether people are getting discouraged seeing the sticker price? michael: it is something we are
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going to have to try to figure out in terms of the inflation-adjusted numbers because these numbers were reported in nominal terms, so the more they cost, the word appears retail sales have gone up. but we have trouble doing that because people were also warned there would not be anything to buy for the holiday season, so they started buying much earlier. so it may be over a period of time, as much was spent, or we bought as much stuff, and it is not inflation affected yet as it could be. jonathan: christmas came early. bank of america out early with that line in the back end of q3 going into q4. acute, michael mckee there. -- thank you, michael mckee there. we are down 0.6% on the nasdaq. a clear trend in the bond market, yields higher. we spent the whole week talking about higher interest rates. can't think of a single policymaker not talking up three or four rate hikes in 2022. lisa: can you say this is a rate hiking pricing, or is this the issue of people wondering
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whether we have priced in some of the wage increases, the expenses a lot of companies are going to face? have we accurately gamed out how this will affect the bottom line at a time of real uncertainty economically? jonathan: we thought the margin story would be one for last year. did not happen. margins were really insulated. our use adjusting that could be the story going through 2022? lisa: i just wonder how this plays out as people get back to normal and we start to see that the real price of the stuff they buy has increased. a 3% wage greece is not going to cut it, so how is that factory into all of these companies seeing record vacancies, having to offer that much more to new employees coming in the door? how do you price that in? jonathan: it is not just the annual wage negotiations. it is the long-term wage negotiations over the past several months, looking at the next several years. i remember that blog piece from neel kashkari, who suggested that is what got his attention,
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that multi-year wage negotiations were now factoring in something close to 7%, when typically they are looking at 2% to 3%. tom: government does a really good job of this. mike is way more expert at this than i am. but i will suggest the bottom decile, maybe bottom to deciles, 20% of the public are doing ok. the top decile, we know they are doing ok. it is the great middle, i wonder what they are going to do. jonathan: jamie dimon, jp morgan saying i have a lot of trust in fed chair jay powell. right now equities lower, down 0.6%. down on the nasdaq 100 0.7%. yields are higher, but off the highs of the session. up a civil basis point on tens. on -- up a single basis point on tens. on twos we have gone through 90.
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tom has been talking about crude through the morning. briefly was an $83 handle, now $81.99, down about 0.1%. retail sales in america up next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> seconds away, we are on sirius radio alongside tom key and lisa abramowitz, i am jonathan ferro. six and .1% down. down 127, and 8/10 of 1% now. yields are higher by sigler -- single basis point. it is already dropping right now. mike mckee is here for more. >> hello. it's a lot worse than anticipated. whether it is because we couldn't sell cars or everyone bought a christmas present in october, detail sales -- retail sales were down 1.9%. the forecast was .1%. that is quite a shortfall. autos are down .3%. gasoline down 2.5%.
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abatements for retail sales, and retail sale control groups are the sorts of things that go into the gdp. we .1%. it was expected to be flat. a real drop. import prices are down 2.1 percent. in petroleum is up by 3/10 of a percent. import prices are still rising 2.4% on the year. checking the markets, i will see which of the categories have really contributed to this big drop. >> the first thing i did was check estimates. justice shot out to jp morgan with the control group. he was looking for -3%. but if you look at the range all the way down to negative three, the price action and equity is coming into this. we are down .7% on the nasdaq. the yields are essentially where they were, coming in a bit. on the high for the session, but
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just above 90. i take away is that every time we get to this data point with retail sales, it is a huge fat range. we still struggle to land number. >> 70% of the economy, and as we talk, there is a little bit of lightness as well. let's cut to the chase. did we go from four to three rate increases? >> it is possible. >> are we going to see big numbers, a fed adjustment? ? >> we have to see how inflation goes in the second half of the a. these numbers are no doubt terrible because not only did they drop in december, but in november, sales were revised down to .2% rise. the control group was down negative five. it is down 3.5%.
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>> i love busting mike mckee's chops. >> i'll take you up on that. take the rate hike off the table. i'll go to the other side of this. is it possible to move sooner if there is evidence of perhaps high prices crimping demand from by all accounts, plenty of cash? >> that's a good question. they are not going to do it as i said before. that is in march. they are going to do it sooner, but they could do it stronger. inflation might keep up until they get to the march meeting. whether they are tired of spending, or it is falling forward every single category. it is down. here's something really surprising. retailers, buying are free to -- internet. down 8.7%. whereas in december of 2020, a
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rose 10.7%. it is still a tough environment to buy anything. really bad groups. furniture and home furnishings, down 5.5%. electronics are down 2.9%. food stores are down 510 7%. grocery stores are down 7/10. we weren't even buying a lot of food. clothing accessories are down 3.1%. it's interesting because you subtract inflation from that, and these numbers would be even worth. -- worse. >> straightforward numbers compared to what we were expecting, but a lot of people are brave to extrapolate out this performance for the next 12 months. >> when you speak to an official, they would say there is weakness. they're looking at near-term weaknesses. they are also expecting it to be average. it may peek at the end of march, and perhaps it will accelerate
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through the three year. they are still expecting the year gdp growth. we have omicron start the year, and perhaps at some point, we will have to capture things ahead of time. they are expecting a rough january and february. i'm sure for a lot of policymakers were no, it is going to take much more of this on the screen. it will change their view. it's not a good year. >> we get perspective now. chief economist it is an important conversation of heritage. looking at the american consumer. the headline data says that the american consumers telling us what? >> the american consumers telling us that december was a rough month. but let's think about this. we look at october sales, they were really strong. people accelerate their holiday shopping. all of the toys in october. but we also had empty shelves.
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let's not forget omicron. this was an issue during the time. a lot of people are probably just not out there shopping. they were afraid of getting sick. we wouldn't be surprised if consumer confidence in january comes from what we saw in december. again, that is a function of omicron. the first point that you make, empty shelves. how is this a display chain -- supply chain disruption? there was no inventory. >> i think it all factors in. if there is no inventory, you cannot buy anything. we really need to watch the metrics that tell us what is going on in inventory. we look at other private measures, we saw some movement. again, it was a big issue. certainly, it wasn't good. we were challenged by covid
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policies. >> even just getting things to shelves. we still of a huge backlog of shift with unloading. once they unloaded, we connected to the stores because of truckers and sort supply. >> one of our viewers sent a rough time saying they were talking about they were doing. >> were going back to the u.k.. the supply chain shopping online. i'm sure that will read really well across the family, but there is an issue with december because of omicron. we haven't even peaked in the united states when it comes to the virus. how bad is january going to be? wax we could see some poor numbers in january at a conference that already factored in amine first quarter, looking at 2.2% growth.
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that is pretty similar to what we saw in the third quarter. that is with the delta variant. we are coming off a very strong quarter in general. it is looking pretty good. we could see a second or first quarter. the second quarter should pick up as we get beyond omicron. in person services will reopen, and we will hopefully enjoy our lives. >> omicron started in south africa and went north to botswana. on november 14 of 2021, you guys on the high ground, there was a conference to see charge card dynamics, entry dynamics, and stores. did they really change in december? is there any granular evidence of what we all felt? we've all been discussing this.
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consumers were still kind of optimistic in terms of the future. they thought they were going to occasion, but the next six months, they were looking at appliances, and all that great stuff. as mentioned, consumers have the capacity to send. many are working. they still of savings. balance sheets were in good shape. once we get past omicron, it made it short-lived. the became an strong, and we abated quickly. we will get back to an environment were consumers feel comfortable. >> thank you. a big downside surprise on retail. the conference. with mastercard, shortly after christmas, the day after christmas, it indicated that the christmas spend was pretty decent. that is why think a lot of people were surprised by this.
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you been to macy's. trading lower of the back of this number. >> i guess we all fall back on our experience right now. my experience in the island of manhattan is that no one is on the streets. that is not america. were pushing against that. bloomberg surveillance at 9:00. i'm sorry, but it is a mixed story. you are right. >> we need way more data. things are worse than this. we have to change the path of inflation. they are a to go. they need a whole lot more data. >> how much of this has played to the story of omicron disruption. it is leading the fed to move faster. some of these interruptions lead to higher prices that prove that is not with the federal reserve wants to see. in order to keep the economy on track, the story is just nuance. people are rejigger which purchases they are going to make based on what seems the most
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likely. there are so many granular aspects >> just in terms of the night direction and magnitude of move, a lot of economists came onto this program of the back end of last year and said we have had to frontload a lot of the christmas spend. they were anticipating some weakness. they were looking at anticipation, but they expected some softness to turn of the year. >> especially to start this one. one noted that we have nearly office -- we have been nearly off 70% year-over-year. >> is not that they are terrible in the big picture. >> lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, tom keene. yields are high, and earnings season begins with tape p morgan and wells fargo. after a long week and into next week, we have morgan stanley, it bank of america, and all the rest. enjoy a long weekend on bloomberg tv. we will have an equity market, and we will see you soon. very soon. is going to boc -- ok.
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we will be all right. >> this is bloomberg. >> for the second time, we are streaming. immigration and it was temporarily prevented from supporting the unvaccinated. it is in the public interest to do so. we were back hours later, and there may be hearing on sunday. the u.s. supreme court may have rejected bidens mandate for taxes, but businesses are threatened, and they might be forced in from one anyway. they're protecting workers and keeping factories open. it requires vaccination. two short-range blesses -- plastic missiles were launched after the regime warned it would take stronger certain action. more factions earlier this
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>> week -- next week we will announce how we are making high-quality masks available to the american people for free.
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i know we all wish that we could finally be done with wear a mask, i get it. but there is a really important tool to stop the spread. >> the president as something that center and right can agree on. a reset for the we can. based on every order, based on what emily wilkins is telling us this morning, and we will see where the president sits. on the sunday talk shows, you can hear it on bloomberg radio, and on monday morning as well. maybe by monday morning, we will see a change in the metric of hospitalizations and deaths in this horrific pandemic, and we will jump a little bit, i should say. we have weekend brief from andrew pack off, and he is a professor involved -- biologists. he joins us today from johns hopkins. bloomberg school. this came up last night at the table. what's after omicron. what is after this variant?
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>> it is hard to predict exactly what is going to happen. this is a variant. we can see with pretty good certainty that there will be more variance. they will come down the pipeline. we really think that omicron was a tremendous challenge to the current vaccines and the treatment regimens. we handled omicron, which deals with rates of hospitalizations, and we probably are going to be in a good place to be able to deal with other surges and limit them in the future. >> delta is still around a little bit. we have people who are infected with delta. it is a very low level across the country, maybe 10% of sequences, and omicron is really coming in and outpacing alta. it really became a dominant
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virus in an incredibly past -- fast. of time. >> you talked about epic -- economic momentum. what we can expect. when it will be over. i am curious about what you observed in a five day isolation. of the cdc guidance that played out in the making. is that proving to be effective when people are contagious, and afterwards can they go back into circulation? >> the problem is that it is a very nuanced question. there is some data suggesting that if you have been vaccinated, after five days, you are very unlikely to be infectious, but all of that data was generated with variance other than omicron. we already know from some of the testing procedures, some of the transmission of omicron, that doing things will be different than previous variance. many scientists, including myself really want to hear that five day incubation.
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and end it with a negative fashion cast, because that could have strong evidence that you would be very unlikely to have spread the virus if you went back to work. >> other variants, i would say fine, but with omicron, things are different. tom started conversation about omicron. the return to work, plans were put on hold, as we deal with the latest variant. if we returned to work, returning to parties, returning to restaurants, looking like after we are back in a epidemic states rather than a pandemic? >> if there is any bit of a silver lining right now, it is becoming clear that if you have been vaccinated and you get omicron, your immune response is not only high, but it is also very broad. recognizes all of these previous
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variance that have come through. there are suggestive data indicating that people who have gotten through this omicron surge may end up with a really strong immune response afterwards that provides even more protection against whatever the next variant is. if that is true, it could be a turning point in dealing with this is a pandemic versus something seasonal. >> make you so much for joining us. with johns hopkins, university. we have to go to what we were talking earlier. this is david from dartmouth college. he is preparing some soccer talk. >> we need soccer talk every day >> yes. >> we were planning for cardiff versus blackburn. on saturday, we have an adjustment of the fed. he doesn't mince any words about it. he says this is something he saw coming. it is a slowdown. he suggested that it is not political, but it will stay.
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it will be tepid. the rate rise will not be certain. >> he put that on twitter. all the mood music based on new data. it is becoming more hawkish. retail sales are collapsing. we have consumer sentiment suggesting it would. it is whether anyone has any interest in the actual data. rate hikes and rate rises in 2020 between -- 2022. that is the crux of the issue. what data do we look at? how do we interpret that data? some economic notes are putting this out, and we have a lot of consumers who are concerned about how high the prices are. that is dampening retail value. the other way to look at this is people are not going to spend as much. they are getting concerned, make may that economy is slowing down more than people expected. >> it is interesting to see a sequential discussion of rate rises first for a lot of people in history are saying, which is is off the bottom. it is ok. the dialogue is that we will raise rates, and then we will
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select not one and done, but one of wait-and-see. maybe that is what next week will bring us in the folly of our analysis. >> it is an excellent point. >> long-term. >> it is the issue. one investor after another. what is the long-term rate that the fed gets two. where we going? we were going just quickly in the beginning, and then perhaps, we wouldn't have as many long-term, and the market would pricing. basically, and and that is similar to what we have had in the past. we've had people come out and say it should be three or 4%. how much did that affect the economic impact. >> a crazy day a crazy week. we have to go. here's what matters. what is the auction calendar look like next week? >> we had a slew of auctions this week. we had the 10 year the day before. what is interesting to me with
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all the options and i know you're not saying that, but everyone is so fascinated. going to talk about bond options, but the take away is that the demand is still there. all of the uncertainty not pushing people away and buying treasury yields, and the rates, it is so well below where inflation is right now. >> we have a surveillance quilt. we hope that all of you have an eventful and healthy and restful weekend here. as we all play it. we thank you, particularly, with human resources. i'm sorry. you're just killing it. you're just loving it. we called up the other day, and are we done? i want to go. >> it is a tricky moment. >> more conversation with david westin and the gentleman from mississippi with the naacp.
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derek johnson, really interesting die. that's at 12:00. stay with us. don't forget, the real yield. that's on later today on television. from television and radio, this is bloomberg. good morning.
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>> retail sales disparate to -- disappoint. from near city, good morning. we are down 8/10 on the s&p. the countdown to the open starts
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right now. >> everything you need to get set and get started with u.s. trading. this is bloomberg the open. jonathan ferro. >> we begin with the big issue. earnings season is kicking off. >> earnings. kirk's -- >> earnings even. >> you will see a fundamental fact in full focus. >> it is going to stay printed. >> earnings estimates are up. that is starting up. >> fundamentally, we think it is coming through. >> responding. i think you will tell us a lot about the market. >> it is coming in. there are things to

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