tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 26, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EDT
simply, the opening of societies has not worked. ireland in lockdown. a grim week for continental europe. el paso intensive care unit at full capacity. sunday.had 12 deaths on there vice president has five aids infected. markets, while they give way, risk off. tech earnings later this week, apple and amazon. and they are eight days a week in this election week, both trump and biden, biden and trump -- ♪ no, it's not enough to show i care ♪ good morning. tom keene in new york. francine lacqua in apple -- in london, i should say, not far from apple on abbey road. this a great tradition of
being the final week where they really recalibrate. and remember, for years ago, this is one president trump, with a vengeance, recalibrated. francine: yes, we look at the polls, we look at georgia. thatof these swing states have been, for a pretty long time, read turning blue, so we will look at the polls there. and it must be election week if you are singing to me. that is what the markets are looking at, and that is, what they say, even what boris johnson is looking at before signing with the e.u. tom: long lines across the nation, a lot of stories and anecdotes on that. let's get to our first word news. in new york city, ritika gupta. ritika: good morning. house speaker nancy pelosi says the chamber could pass a pandemic relief package this week. still, a deal with the white house remains elusive. the republican led senate may not act before the election.
both sides accuse each other of "moving the goal posts on legislation." mark meadows says the u.s. is not going to control the pandemic. he told cnn the government's response will be focused on vaccines and treatment, not containment. meanwhile, vice president mike pence's chief of staff and two other staff members have tested positive. pence's latest test came back negative. and the final vote is that for today on amy coney barrett's nomination to the supreme court. confirmation is all but assured. senate democratic leader chuck schumer accused republicans of raw political power to get barrett confirmed before election day. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. data check.
yields are lower in the united result, if your will. lower yield on the 10 year. a 30utures negative -- print on the vix, a real benchmark. i will leave it there. francine: i will be quick. investors are seeking projections. if you look at yields on the 10 year, they are lower. makerrman software dropped 20%, sending european stocks lower. tom: very good to begin our coverage on these eight days of alexion with a look at the voices and then to our martin schenker. first, the president and former vice president. pres. trump: many of our companies and labs are coming out with the vaccine very shortly. it will quickly end the pandemic. it is ending anyway. we are rounding the turn.
have ann: folks, i admission to make. there are so many of you here, i wish i could go car to car and meet you all. i do not like the idea of all this distance, but it is necessary. i appreciate you being safe. what we do not want to do is become super spreaders. now they are doing it again. the laptop from hell. this is the laptop they don't want to see. it isis got freed up -- amazing the way god works. not tell ushey did about the virus. the administration gave wall street investors, though, a heads up. just his wall us, street friends. that is why they made so much money by "selling short" with the market. they knew what was coming. but what happens to the rest of us? tom: it is part of the american
fabric. pennsylvania, -- our martin schenker out in force, some are lost up the hudson river valley. long, long lines, voting. that is really nationwide, isn't it? marty: it is. i myself voted up in new york. half an hour before the polls open, the line was around the block. tom: it is so much the allusion 2000 tougher 2016. which does this compare to? 2000: the democrats hope eight. for the republicans, they hope it is a repetition of 2016, where polling showed hillary clinton ahead about donald trump pulled it out. francine: and have the polls
changed? i guess the one unknown is the shia trump voter. you speak to half the people, they say they are very few of them. others say this is a major factor, that people have been shamed into saying that they vote for president trump here one of the polls telling us? marty: it is amazing that the national polls have been ready consistent for months, essentially, with joe biden digits. high single some polls even had him above 10%. but it is in those battleground states, and the new states that should contentious that give everybody pause before predicting who will win the race. because those are very close. and within the margin of error. anything could happen on election day. francine: we have new swing states? we have been trying to figure it out on "surveillance" for quite
some time. there are these states that have not voted democrat for quite some time that are now -- could be on the cusp. marty: that is right. you mentioned georgia. texas and arizona as well. these are all now, essentially, battleground states. close.in, they are so and you add in the other states, like florida, which is also very close. it gives you pause before making predictions on what is going to happen. tom: do tv commercials work anymore? marty: i think they work as entertainment. but so many people have decided already and even voted already. over 60 million people have already voted. for them, the commercials are just entertainment. tom: just entertainment, and yet we will dash --in the amount of money everyone agrees on is sort
of unseemly as well. what state are you focused on the most? marty: i think that, actually, georgette -- tom: stop, come on. this is brilliant. francine lacqua, across the pond, is focused on georgia as well. that is clairvoyant. what about origin? marty: obviously, stacey abrams governorliant bid for a few years ago. the state is changing demographically. it is also very interesting, because both senate seats are up in georgia, and you must get 50% to become senator. if neither candidate does, then we are not going to know where the senate is until january. tom: see, this is why it is great to have marty schenker on. he's a font of wisdom. francine: of course he is. that is why we have him on. when you look at the infection of the people around mike pence,
his chief of staff and four other top aides, what does it mean for what the vice president needs to do, and how does that impact the nomination of the supreme court judge? mean, donaldi trump holding rally after rally and mike pence traveling after his close aides tested positive allows the democrats to continue the narrative by the republicans had a very poor response to this virus. and even to this day are not trying to contain it. and i think that just feeds into the democratic argument. tom: marty schenker, stay healthy. our chief content officer here on the path to the election, eight days away. i am sure we will speak to him many more times. really just a great compendium of all the zeitgeist out there. coming up, on the economy. it is great to catch up with carl weinberg, high-frequency economics chief economist. he has written blistering notes
even have the bill yet, because nancy pelosi -- i know she can speak to this -- but we have continued to make offer after offer after offer, and nancy continues to move the goal post. >> we are waiting for the final -- >> it they would -- >> and they have not yet. and same thing. they keep moving the goal post. we want it the sooner the
better, and that is why we are making concessions. tom: the political moment with mr. meadows and the speaker from the house. maybe you missed it, beneath the fold this weekend. will pelosi says she us, carlain -- joining weinberg. i love the acuity of your global essay where you focus on q4. where is our economy? arl: well, we do not have level -- we do not really know what the pandemic of -- will do. what we know is the third quarter got a boost, because in every country around the world, gdp growth, we are looking at figures like 52% growth for germany -- sorry, 29% for germany, 52% for the euro zone, but it is an illusion because
the base was so low. the fourth quarter will not have that windfall. worseld see flat or depending how the months work out. the indications from germany is it is already starting to fizzle a bit over there. so reason to be worried about q4. tom: with the political moment that we are in, usually, e x-pandemic, we are wondering about the run rate of gdp. is it under 2% or is it actually more constructive? carl: in the united states, we think there is a rebound in progress. resurgence of the virus, we would have said something around 2% or 3% is possible, which may have gotten is back to where we were before the lockdowns, maybe over the course of three or four or five years. but with this new third wave in the united states, second wave in europe, we really cannot
predict what is going to happen, because the virus can just shut everything down. not because of government lockdowns but just because people cannot or will not go to work. they will stay home for child care. the factory is shot because somebody else got sick -- there are a number of ways in which the infection infects the economy, and that is what we are worried about right now. as a formal lockdown as much an unwanted, undesired shutdown of economic activity as the coronavirus spreads again. francine: good morning from london. are we looking at a double-dip recession and do the markets care? or will they just focus on what fiscal policy and central banks can do? carl: the chart made about it, but it is all the same recession, all the same thing. the shock is that people cannot get to work because they are sick or they are in lockdown or both. a supply shock compounded by the demand shock. just because the end of the quarter numbers go up and down on the basis of math, when we
look at things, it is clear what is happening. we look at the levels and the direction of the levels is down. now with a little bit of a bounce. now, all the monthly charts, we are starting to see a little tail downwards on indicators we survey datather from other countries, so we are concerned that we are seeing a dead cat bounce, fi you -- if you will, off the bottom, and that things can only get worse from here. francine: what does it mean for where you put your money? carl: first of all, if i get worse, i think that the encompass of the low economy, i think we are headed back to those levels again come on the back of this new wave. so where do you put your money? good question, because you are starting to run out of opportunity. this week, as gdp numbers start to come out for a number of
countries, optimism on the stock market will take it to new highs, it will bolster investor confidence -- people will say, growth, we0% gdp have to buy stock. but as things start to go into crash mode again, i think we will see a short reversal. adviceot give investment at high frequency economics, but i think the market is in for a wild ride. i think bond yields will stay about where they are. if things stay even a little bit lower on the basis of more economic information out there. tom: one of the heritages of a carl weinberg essay is a careful study of export and import dynamics. can you give any kind of vector , a vector uptrade for u.s. exports, even a vector up for better imports? trade,ooking at world
world trade is being held down by commodities, by things like energy products and materials and so forth. with our industrial structure, anywhere from 5% to 20% lower in terms of operation levels than where it was back in february, but we are seeing less trade and stuff that goes into the industrial machine, and that is dragging down world trade, particularly affecting emerging markets and the commodity producing countries that are largely the customers of things that we export from the united states. so this whole process is kind of a small bond process that starts with economic activity slowing in these fast countries which then refax out to the emerging world and reflects back into the united states to lower export sales. if we start with levels of industrial production going back to where we were before, we see the increase in
commodities here that is the key thing. do not look at the growth rates. tell everyone to look at the levels. it determines the level of employment and the level of commodity input. tom: where is the level of our labor economy? carl: very severely depressed right now. you can be optimistic about a v-shaped recovery, but growth is not the object by which recovery is measured. the metric is level. we have 20 million people in the united states still getting some kind of unappointed benefit in one way or another, and that is sawllion number then we before. we saw that story around the world, except for japan, where they do not fire anybody, and we will see the employment system generate very low profits for companies in japan.
softe looking at a very labor market everywhere in the world right now. tom: carl weinberg, thank you so much. i cannot say enough about high frequency economics. just extraordinary china notes, u.s. note, and of course, dr. weinberg's global note. if you have a bull case, particularly into the tech laidler week, benjamin is someone to speak to. with tower hudson, he has been shockingly good about staying invested in times like here. ben laidler in the 7:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm ritika gupta with your bloomberg business flash. china will impose unspecified sanctions on lockheed martin and others after the u.s. approved and a billion-dollar arms sale to taiwan last week. china says the sanctions are needed to uphold national interest. the parent of dunkin is in talks to be acquired by inspire brand. the deal is valued at $8.8 billion and could be announced today. owns buffalo wild
wings and jimmy john's. , theren in the pandemic were shortages from everything from toilet paper to meat. now there is a scarcity of larger household foods. here is scarlet fu. scarlet: shopping for a new freezer or bicycle? join the waiting list. homes ishem to your part of the global supply chain estimated alers demand surge. factories around the globe reopened but often at limited capacity to keep workers socially distant. traderus also gummed up lanes. with demand booming on the back of a rising u.s. housing market, and already stressed network is seeing more stress.
aging appliances is just as hard. experts say get ready for the biggest restocking cycle on record. gdp will get a boost over the next two to three quarters, but states that reply on logistics, manufacturing, and construction will outperform those with service driven economies. the bloombergs business flash. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?
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unilever chief executive, paul polman, is now chairing imagine. he also received a commitment from japan's prime minister to cut down greenhouse gas admissions. we are now joined by paul polman. you are really one of the first people who cared about sustainability and started working on sustainability to build a better future at unilever. we have seen a lot of commitment from private companies, but what you need from the next u.s. administration to actually bring to therward, the agenda, forefront of what we care about? paul: indeed, in the private sector, we now have about 1300 companies with a combined market cap of about $25 billion calling for climate action. the elections are
going to be decisive, to some extent, as well towards the future of protecting this most existential threat we have. on the one hand, we have a president who continues to call this a hoax and disregards this paid on the other hand, we have someone who looks to europe, the green deal, and the broad movement in the u.s., about 60%, 70% of the population demanding climate action, to put something in place. the outcome of the elections will be decisive. not as much in the u.s. as to the role that the u.s. will play globally to move this forward. the announcement today from japan, being that zero by 2050, china have -- having a 2060, there is clear momentum, if we can get the americans on board. francine: historically, it was governments that actually set
guidelines or deadlines for companies, and companies did better on sustainability. if you look at the vacuum in the u.s., private companies have really taken the lead. does that change if you have a democratic president? paul: well, we need everybody. i do not think the issue can be solved by relying on one party or the other. it is clear that the american industry is dealing with the costs and inefficiencies of not acting, with a lot of political framework. government regulations that are not conducive. if it isuld accelerate a new government and it could make the industry more competitive. one of the reasons that prime ministers suga -- prime minister commitment is his it willy firmly say accelerate economic growth in japan. it took a while for politicians to break this paradigm that they
had, that working on climate change would stifle economic growth. it has now proven over and over, it is actually the opposite. if we do not work on climate change, we will stifle economic growth. it is probably the best opportunity we have moving forward. tom: tom keene in new york -- wonderful to have you on today. i suggest that your work with unilever and with nestle before aat and starting out as cost analyst at procter & gamble a few years ago, that you have done more in big cap multinational on this theme than anyone alive. the core problem we have is the price theory of carbon, the failure of auction markets in europe -- i talked the chair yellen about it the other day with a group of about 30, over a carbon tax, which seems to be undoable. how do we get to a pricing of carbon that allows nations to interlink to a successful outcome? paul: well, thanks for the
question. there are over 40 schemes now of carbon pricing. and broadly, where it is in place, we see economies doing better and business driving. many of the businesses, as you know, already have an internal price on carbon. disclosure,orce on interestingly, the highest take from companies in japan would not only like disclosure of carbon risk in the failure chain but also the price of carbon. it happens to be that, in the u.s., we are not far away from a carbon pricing about two decades ago. there is a proposal now in the house and senate, from both sides of the aisle, that, again, would move to a carbon dividend system. so i am not sure that we would not be able to do that. it will obviously take a little bit of work. but if we do not price in these, we will not be able to move at
the scale and speed needed. so i am a bit more optimistic than the question would suggest. even in the u.s., i think some of the republicans that are now sitting on the fence until the election will hopefully be willing to be more cooperative after the elections. tom: how critical is it to have the united states on board? mentioned the idea of the united states still not on board , to go back to the paris accord -- and full disclosure, mr. bloomberg was very actively involved, the founder of bloomberg llp. but with that said, how critical is it to get the united states into multilateral agreements on climate? paul: first of all, mike has pl ayed a key role, and we are grateful for that. and the we are still in movement is really rallying cities and states and private sector behind action on climate change.
thanks to them, we are in a better position than we otherwise would have been. the u.s. role overseas is still very important, and we should not deny that. john kerry and, at that time, barack obama, played a crucial role in pulling some of the country sitting on the fence, pulling them to the right side, and that is one of the reasons we have a very good paris agreement. there is still some work to be done, but with some of the countries, america would be more successful than other major powers, but having, now, china, the e.u., and hopefully the u.s. on one page will certainly help us create a mentor globally. tom: paul polman with us, the former unilever chief executive officer, with his effort imagine on climate. dow futures negative 256. the vix back to a 30 level. francine and i are watching turkish lira, up to 8.05.
ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm ritika gupta. coming up later today, the impossible foods cfo. this is bloomberg. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm ritika gupta. house speaker nancy pelosi and the white house accuse each other of doing the same thing when it comes to the pandemic relief plan. that is "moving the goal post when it comes to what is the actual legislation." pelosi says the house capacity bill this week. still, an agreement with the
white house is not certain. the report can lead senate may not act before the election -- the republican led senate may not act before the election. atonavirus cases are surging the two countries in the center of it in europe. italy announced a national lockdown. spain will impose new measures, including a curfew. declare, once again, a state of emergency, because it is the most effective way to slow down the contagion curve and keep the virus away. ritika: germany will consider its next steps at a meeting today. joe biden calls republican questions about his son hunter's business deals a smear campaign. he also told cbs news that the release of documents allegedly belonging to his son may have been part of a russian disinformation campaign. biden's claim has not been substantiated.
more deliberate blackouts in northern california. the state's largest utility cut power to 1.1 million people to prevent live wires from falling into dry bush and starting wildfires. wind as high as 50 miles per northwept through an area of san francisco. the blackouts may last until tomorrow. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. much.hank you so greatly appreciated. now, on the deaths, the cases, the hospitalizations, joshua sharfstein of johns hopkins university. we have had a wonderful dialogue with you and your team and other experts around the world on this pandemic. we have learned so much from you, starting in the vicinity of february and the permutations of april and may. if i discard a second and third
wave mentality and simply look at the burgeoning cases, how do they fold over to an expectation of deaths to come? dr. sharfstein: well, it is extremely concerning. it is obviously not just cases we are seeing. we are seeing a lot of people in the hospital. i was just looking at the stories about field hospitals being built in wisconsin and other states, texas, they had to use of military hospitals. utah sending patients all over the country because hospitals are full -- those are really concerning signs. anyone who thinks this increase is because of testing is completely wrong. we are seeing surges in hospitals. with surges in hospital care, we see surges of patients who need to be ventilated, and that will mean there will be more deaths. we can take care of them better, but because overall there are
more and more cases, more people will die. so it is cold comfort that there is less chance that an individual dine, there are just so many more individuals. the projections that we could go from 1000 to 2000 a day are not unrealistic. tom: do you have an extrapolation to the number of deaths out there? it is the one thing i couldn't find this week and except for pundits -- this weekend, except for pundits. can you extrapolate out the number of deaths? dr. sharfstein: that is not something i do, but there are people who do those kinds of models. and those are the kind of models that some of the pundits are citing. so it is based on the anticipated spread. forjohns hopkins center health security was quoted over the weekend that cases are going up and we are not doing much to
bring them down. so we connect spec them to go up for a while. when that happens, more people will get sick here that is what is driving those projections that more and more people will be dying. francine: when you look at the race to the vaccine, there are a couple of things that moved over the weekend. first of all, we understand an astrazeneca vaccine actually makes an autoimmune response in the other lee. we also understand that johnson & johnson said the first batches of its shot could be available come january. is this much-needed good news? thinkarfstein: yeah, i there is good news out there. the evidence that vaccines could create an immune response in the elderly is a good step. we do not know for sure that means people are protected. that is what we are waiting for the studies to find out. but the studies should be reporting soon. i think that is good. i still wish we were learning a little bit more about what is going on with the trial, from
regulators around the world, but hopefully, they will be able to find their voice as these trials come to a conclusion. francine: joshua sharfstein, thank you so much. and make sure to check out vrus for more information. check out exclusive information with johns hopkins experts on battling covid-19. coming up, ryan williams of realcadre. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." london andncine from new york. ubs is changing its pay structures so that senior employees will not be poached. let's get straight to our bloomberg wall street correspondent. this is according to people familiar with the story. ford it be a new template pay compensation that a lot of european banks will follow? >> it sure can.
one reason why is it creates less uncertainty for their banks when it comes to their investors. it creates a lot less uncertainty for the employees at a very uncertain time. and when you look at the u.s., there are already rules around bonuses versus fixed pay, and that has been a very big draw to employees and other areas of the world. like in the u.s., where the u.s. really likes the certainty where they know the -- what they will get at the end of the day. francine: how does that prevent poaching? basically deferred compensation that incentivizes bankers not leaving the company? sonali: if they bring the base pay high enough to get employees to the level they will be comfortable living at for however long they have that fixed pay for, you are ok. but again, if that job is not
high enough, you are absolutely right. the bonus and the fixed pay will not really make a difference for that employee. it is a competitive job market right now, and the jump has to be high enough. francine: let's talk also about investment, especially real estate. commercial real estate prices have taken a beating, but some investors -- byare delighted to be joined ryan williams of realcadre. do you see prices good enough for you to go back in? so basically you buy some stuff and tell investors to come and invest in cadre. is now a good time to buy commercial companies or commercial real estate, or will we work from home forever after? ryan: well, i do not think it is one or the other, necessarily. the important point is to
recognize that real estate has historically been the number one asset class for wealth creation. a lot of that wealth in the past has been created coming out of periods of uncertainty, of dislocation. the key to success, just like any other industry, is who you ofest with and which kind assets that invest in. believe there will be some asset classes outperform even more strongly than they would pre-covid. multifamily residential, for instance, are actually stronger today than they have ever been. people need somewhere to live in an environment of people are at home more than ever. industrial is another asset class that we think is incredibly compelling, given this whole e-commerce trend that has been accelerated and the a logisticsf having
and supply chain effectively digitized. you look at certain asset classes -- at cadre, we are focused identifying the asset classes we think will perform even more strongly. stay away from asset classes like retail and hospitality, which, to your points, have a lot of question marks and unknowns. stay away from urban, central business district offices, which also have a lot yet to shake out. so there will be winners and losers, and it is about being selective and having the right platform to build a portfolio, because real estate, again, is a great hedge to a lot of the volatility we are seeing in the equity market today. sonali: let's talk about urban spaces. when you are looking across the country, you have people who are just flying away from the cities. but you have some people, like me, frankly, who are ready to buy a place in the city, because you are seeing prices start to
plunge. what are you seeing? what is the story when you look at everything altogether? ryan: it is a bit of a mixed story. to your point, there are definitely folks, like myself -- i am actually in new york city still as well, that are interested in staying here for the long term, that are bullish on some of those unique dynamics that make a city like new york so vibrant. cultural opportunities here, the fact that there is a deep history, that there are so many amenities all centralized. ofhink we are in a period near-term and midterm dislocation and a lot of folks are moving outside the city for the time being what -- but will come back. and to your point, those who are more long-term oriented and can think beyond the next year or two years, i think there are some compelling investing
opportunities, especially in residential and a lot of the urban cores. in the office, i think that is a space where there will be a fundamental change in how office space works, in terms of flexibility and adaptability being key. but in terms of the residential space in urban centers, i firmly believe there are some unique benefits of being in the city centers that will endure. and for those who are willing to invest today, there can be real opportunity. sonali: how do you time it? is this the right time to invest in urban real estate or do you have to wait a couple months? ryan: it is market by market and based on which asset class you are focused on. at cadre, we identified our top 15 markets. some are what we think of as emerging urban markets. those are areas where you are seeing prospects for population growth. you are seeing affordability.
those are the markets that we feel more confident in today versus markets where affordability is not quite in line. you can look at a market like l.a., for instance, where population growth and income growth are actually trending in the opposite direction. very focused on is identifying the markets where there is unique affordability, there is growth, and staying away from the markets where that is not the case. i think it is market by market. you have to really select and identify where you see positive trends, where you see investment from city governments and the like. and then the markets where you do not see that need to stay away from, and then you need to overlay asset classes as well. residential and urban cores we like or than office because of all the change happening. i do not think you will see any kind of clarity in terms of pricing across urban office or central business district office, hotel or retail, for
another 18 to 24 months. so we are staying away from those asset classes for the next 18 to 24 months. we are still focused on residential but being more selective in urban market versus suburban markets. francine: ryan williams, co-founder and chief executive sonalie and bloomberg's basak. there is a lot going on in the market. s.a.p. in europe really hurting a lot of european stocks, down 20%, after it said it would be a difficult couple of months. jonathan, tom keene, ferro, and lisa abramowicz for more "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ♪ you can go your own way
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right now where there is much less leverage in the equity market. >> you don't want to get into a debt trap. >> the fed has a lot of upside to accelerate. i think they will maintain this pace. >> we have an income cliff at a time when the consumer is supposed to go out and spend. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, come morning -- worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a day away from an election in america. we call that "eight days a week,"