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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  January 12, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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vonnie quinn and this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: the top stories we're covering, donald trump ditches plans to visit london to open a new u.s. embassy next month, saying it is a bad location. theresa may defending the south london area. with angelaping merkel reaching a culinary deal with social democrats to end the political gridlock and the european biggest economy. stocks in europe and the u.s. extending gains after core inflation in the u.s. unexpectedly accelerated and we will talk with a global strategist. what is happening to european equities 30 minutes away from the and of the friday session.
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, gainingets of today for the first thing and three, on track for the second weekly gain, best run since early november. 136, highest level since june of 2016. -- day after the breakfast best run since december. sterling falling the first three day of this week followed by continued signs of division over brexit, disappoint economic dating and the forecast 135. rcb markets the most bearish, forecasting $1.20. vote, junethe brexit 23 of 2016, sterling finished the day at 1.4877 and the next day at 136.79. we are at 136.87.
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let's talk about gold. longest run of gains and more than a decade, will jan benefiting from the weaker dollar attention to north korea and the middle east with gold futures headed for the fifth consecutive weekly gain and the longest rally permit twice 16, gold is at the highest level since september of last year and let's talk about russia investors had have been piling $122 million into the russia over the last five trading sessions, the longest stretch of inflows since december of twice 16. opec and allies trimming output to reduce global inventory advance makingil investors optimistic about the russian growth which is positive for equities.
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90 minutes into the trading session in the u.s., how is looking come abigail? >> the rally building in the ,.s., look at the dow, s&p 500 nasdaq, all higher with the dow up nearly 8/10 of 1%, very strong weekly gains again for the major averages, each on the withnow up more than 1% the dow merely up 2% on the week which follows the big weekly gains. bullish momentum. cpi accelerating unexpectedly and continued optimism around tax reform, a since nothing can go wrong. believesal analyst that the technicals are looking over but and she believes we could see a pullback relatively near-term. as for what could cause that is not something she would look at but it could have something to do with the financials.
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-- we see the banks have rallied into the earnings season and have pulled back, from overbought to oversold and we have had a rally in the current earnings season and perhaps a bit of a pullback. on the day, banks solidly higher. fargo not solidly higher. a trading revenue missed that came in down twice 6% versus the expectations for a drop, down 19%, investors liking the positive this year for tax reform but wells fargo a miss on the top and bottom. the banks are higher. chairs trading higher, highs closer to 5% that the nordstrom family may be looking at taking the company private.
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it seems almost quarterly. today, a bit of a boost. donald trump under fire for allegedly using profanity about immigrants from certain countries but the resident denies making -- but the president denies the comments. says he isnt canceling his trip to london and protest of an obama administration decision to use -- move the u.s. embassy here. not to make light of this, he called the location of the new location,sy and off they could have used the s word. it has not gone down well. government spokesperson rally to the defense, calling it a vibrant area and a former
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chief of staff tweeted that donald trump should check it out and there is a famous gay bar who invited donald trump to check it out. slightly lightheartedly. dominated, this has the mayor of london saying that donald trump has the message that he would not welcome domin, there would be demonstrations on the street which is widely interpreted as the real reason for him not coming the fear of mass protests on the streets here. the relationship between switzerland and the u.s. is crucial and particularly to theresa may, which he looks to get this important post-brexit trade deal.
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any suggestion relationships are strained between the countries. mark: the decision was made in the bush administration. the old u.s. embassy in the middle of mayfair in central london, security concerns. unhappy about the security. location.ify the done undery deal was the obama administration. wedding planes the to this -- play into this? speculation donald trump may not be invited and perhaps he is a experiencingthat's
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-- how important is that even going to be in the invite list. >> the truth is no one knows who is invited. holding out hope my invite. much smaller event, we remember the fake wedding between prince william. a lot more global leaders attend that. this is being a smaller and more family affair. the guest list will be smaller. what is been commented on is that prince harry seems to have struck up a close friendship with former president obama. that is being looked at. trump, itt be donald would be donald met -- president obama. perhaps donald trump feels somebody very king like should be representing the u.s. the government saying is -- it is a private matter for the
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prince and his the unsafe, who they invite and should not -- and his fiancée. julie: all of these are >> who they invite, and not should be interpreted as an action. >> all of these are a manifestation of the deeper issue. especially as the u.k. is in a tough spot negotiating brexit. -- is it difficult to get to the core of what the relationship is right now. with the president tweeting
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they know we need to have this trade deal. it is absolutely vital when this president -- in this country leaves the union. there are many more rocks in the road. military and intelligence. ultimately, both governments say who sits in the white house and who sits in downing street is not important. the ties between the two countries run so deeply. we will have to see what happens
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after that you and brexit talks move on to trade. was a deal eventually materializes. >> bloomberg london bureau chief. let's check on -- >> president trump has decided to extend sanctions and relief to iran. the white house will announce today that the president will leave the 2015 nuclear accord in tact. will give congress time to develop legislation and post new restrictions on iran. it is a holiday gift for u.s. retailers. of a percent 4/10 after jumping a revised 9/10 of a percent in november. that was the strong just gain -- in germany, there is a preliminary agreement to end
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four months of political stalemate. chancellor angela merkel and the social them a credit party have a plan to form a new government. changes to health insurance but no tax hikes. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. >> thank you very much. up, the euro continues to dazzle. we will talk to global strategist. this is bloomberg.
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♪ from the city of london, this is "the european close." julie: and i'm julie hyman. in decembererated and reinforced fed to raise
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several times.s that pushed the two-year yield over 2% for the first time since the financial crisis. here to discuss this is bob sinche. how significant is that for the two-year? robert: getting a handle on the two-year when you have a handle on the 10-year is getting pretty significant. not think the flattening of the yield curve is telling us all that much because we think the long end of the curve is being depressed by levels around the world. if you look at the real funds rate, it is zero. that tells you monetary policy is accommodative. measures to look at. the yield curve is less reliable now, but we will continue to about therns raised
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flattening of the yield curve and the handle and the two-year is significant in that context. julie: do you think we see more on the 10-year was at a head fake? in the short mark we hit to the take for the lows in 2014. i think that 10-year is -- was hit earlier this week. we may get a bounce off from that. we think we are headed toward 350 on the 10-year, and that will reflect the realization if the fed does that four times a year. some of the competition from international yields begin to see the firstwe step in that guard from the in announcement of the ecb when
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they say their commitment to maintain until inflation reaches 2% they get reviewed. i did not think they were going to do that. they will end asset or just program until the end of september. it is highlighting to investors around the world that one by one, central banks will pull out of markets are they will beat less supportive of long-term debt. in the u.s., the fed becomes a significant seller, effectively in a seller of debt in the second half of the year. at that to current deficits, we think financing requirement in the u.s. could be a trillion dollars this year. when you add those things together, and you end up with significant upward pressure and a steepening of the curve as the year goes on. in the u.s. 10-year goes to 3.5 percent, what does the german ten-year do for 59 basis points today? how high can it go in 2018? do think that we
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will probably get a spread of summer around 250 basis points by year and between 10 year treasuries and 10 year bonds and that applies a yield that will get around 1% by year's end. julie: bob, we will hold you on. ,ext, we'll talk asia and china and its interest in u.s. treasuries with a topic of conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ julie: live from your, i'm julie hyman. mark: and from the city of london, i'm mark barton. time for a bloomberg business flash, the business stories in news right now. oillopment involving texas closing energy focus.
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trading isn't as intriguing to me as it once was and he also says he is recovering from a series of strokes and a major paul. stroke.s -- according to people familiar with the matter, that could happen as soon as this month. nton is dealingbo with debt. according to people familiar, the company had talks less month. include postage meters and e-commerce software. flashs your latest loom -- "bloomberg business flash." exports rising 11% in
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december, slightly higher than estimates. it is a sign that demand for the rest of the world is continuing to make factories and warts humming. -- ports humming. bob, you have been watching export and import growth in china. what is your take on the december numbers? robert: the gains in export is good news on the global economy. what i find interesting, is they reported a 9% increase in month ofn the december. that is exceedingly low for them, particularly giving the rise in commodity prices and they faced commodity costs. what that reflects is we know productionve ordered companies to cut production during december and into january pollution concerns. they had gotten notification a few weeks in advance of this. if they will slowdown reduction,
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it will slowdown import. you saw a dramatic slowing of imports in december. i think this really puts great importance on the numbers into early 2018. if they snap back quickly, we will say that was a temporary phenomenon. if they don't cut production, that is a signal the production slowdown is sustainable. we will see a snap back in january, but by february and march because the pollution issues are receding. ant is something to keep eye on in china. to figure out if the pollution thing was an excuse of some kind. rubber: they ordered companies to cut production. if they were told four weeks in advance they would cut that very
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quickly because they don't need the raw materials. it could be a temporary oculus one,nd an an but it bears watching to the first quarter. week the nonevent of the is the report that china will cut back on each treasury. event or nonevent? robert: i would say two things. number one, i have never seen a global investor come out in advance, by the way, we are thinking of doing this. and also saying that before they actually do it. if you look at treasury data on holdings in china, and that could include the official sector and nonofficial sector, they peaked in august. they rose 150 billion dollars from january to august. they were big buyers of treasury 2017.asset allocation in they started to flatten out and
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go down. if there is a shift, it has already happened. you can also look at the federal reserve published custody holdings of marketable securities and treasuries on behalf of foreign official institutions. that peaked in early december. it was down $43 billion in the following four weeks. been selling u.s. securities during the month of september, and they have been taken out of the company holdings of the fed, and china looks like they peaked out in treasury holdings. is it an issue? i think it is an historic is you rather than perspective as we go forward. down to the call at the 10-year at 3%, does the rising tide raise? 's i am looking over to the index space which had -- i am looking over at the index space
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switch had a good run. robert: if you look at e.m. in general, young countries tend to be on average -- e.m. countries on average tend to be importers and foodltural products. if you look at the cr be indexes for industrial metal -- crb, they are still very depressed. and a gross sense, that works well for emerging markets. talk to youwe will more. an interesting call on it euro coming from bob. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ live from bloomberg headquarters in london, this is "the european close." high stocks, led by auto, on track for a second weekly gain,
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best run since november 3 pay we are cutting -- 3. we are cutting to the chase, look at that rally. it was as much as 30%. to a record. an unsolicited bid from the investment firm millrose industries, evaluate it at almost 7 billion pounds, about 405 pence per share, they specializing turnarounds. they say they undervalue the company and they want to separate the aerospace and airport auto-parts division. the board advises where you anonymous and turning down the offer. the chief executive will stay on to oversee the overhaul. the shares rallied today by a record. this is the bloomberg brexit barometer, which i have not looked at for a long time. let's take a look at it today. investors do not want another referendum. if they got one, they would vote
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to reverse brexit, that is the finding of able by conrad's. y throughel -- yesterda some fuel on the fire for another debate, saying he would back a rematch. this measures the bliss index and economic well-being in the u.k., based on measures of inflation, unemployment and a positive reading suggests that well-being is above average. post-brexit, we were down to the minus figures. just before brexit, plus 50. we are roughly halfway between the two of them. let's finish with this chart. yes, i want to show you one final chart. should i go back? i will stay here. it is the big story today on the french luxury group caring, really pushing control of coma after a decade, acknowledging that their expertise rests with
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brands like gucci and other runway brands. there it is. the german track and field outfitter, shares up by, sorry, down by 6%. they fell as much as 16% earlier. some investors hoping that they would come and pay premium. others worried that those who will get puma stock might actually sell it in receipt of a spinoff. those are concerns today. we got there in the end, julie. julie: momentarily good i will we well welcome folks through it as we see records for three averages, that out doing the best, of three quarters of a percent. industrials and consumer discretionary, and retail strong today, talking about earlier the national retail federation reporting holiday sales rose by 5.5%.
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still with us is bob sinche. he is a global strategist at amherst pieront. we are waiting comments from president trump at the white house. speaking about the u.s. and president trump, we have not talked about taxes and the effect on the u.s. markets this year. we have a wide dispersion of opinions as to how significant they will be, so where do you stand? bob: we think the impact will be a medium-term one in terms of rates of return on capital, capital investment in the u.s. it we have seen short-term effects and is some of it coming to the corporate sector through the one-time payment and bowman says, we will see good -- but his is command was a good numbers in january. but the real test will be what happens with corporate investment. capital spending has been the lacquer for sure. we have seen some announcements, one and auto sector about bringing production back to the u.s., were expanding production in the u.s. so i think that is really were the long-term impact is going to
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be, where it will really be felt. the question is, can we increase capital spending, which in turn will increase what the economists call the capital labor ratios, improve productivity, and growth of the economy? that is really what this is about. we have seen tax adjustments over the last 30 years and we have never had one like this in the corporate sector, and that r hasere the lagge been. it is a big adjustment. the question will be what are the effects of the next 12-24 months in terms of capital spending. the markets are reacting positively and i think they are also reacting to the fact the bond market outlook is deteriorating, when you pull the money out where you going to go what about the effect on
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the u.s. dollar? one of your interesting calls is on the dollar euro. you are looking fordeterioratine money out where you going to go -- you are probably going to equities. that will push money into the equity market. julie: 1.10, compared with the year-end forecast of 1.22 of the strategists we surveyed. this is always a two-sided thing, is it because of dollar strength on the elements you are talking about, is it because of weakness in the eurozone, what is more important or are they both equally important? bob: they are both important. i would say it is 75% stronger dollar and 25% weaker euro. i think we are seeing peak growth in the eurozone right now, i do not think we will have a horrible numbers next year, but i think we will see a peek in the first quarter. and then slowing for the second half of next year. at the same time, we talked about it early with mark, we see bunds at 1% and treasuries at 2.5%, that is a widening in the tenure spreads and further tightening. i think we will see the differential come back later
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this year and i think there is catch up for the dollar to do, so again as you said, i am happy to not be part of the consensus, the market is long on the euro right now. the latest report we got was the record low position, so i think we could have an adjustment probably midyear into the third quarter. mark: that is the euro dollar exchange, what about the sterling and dollar exchange rate, as i am standing in london. you know, the pair is at its highest since june 23, the day of the brexit vote, 2016. despite the tepid economic data, despite uncertainty when it comes to the outcome of the brexit negotiations, sterling, because of the dollar weakness, is continuing to rise. is there upside from here or are we near the peak? bob: i was going to ask you have a trade negotiations are going to go, that is a big factor. euro and a sterling is higher, sterling is weaker against the euro.
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and it tends to not move as much versus the dollar, so i would guess we will see it down in the low 1.30 by the year end. i do not think we will see a big move in sterling per se. and i think if you said a range for the year, a reasonable range, i would guess between 1.30-1.37 for the pound come i think will be fairly muted. talks andon the trade outlooks of the negotiations, from where you are sitting it is always good to hear an outsider's view. how do you think it will unfold? bob: slowly. you know, i think that what the u.k. has going for it is the u.k. is the second-largest export destination for eu countries. if you look at eu exports, first is the u.s., second is the u.k. and i think when the real negotiations start we are going to hear some talk out of the corporate sector in germany and
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france and other big countries, to say that we do have a vested interest in continuing the trade relationship, so if there is one thing the u.k. has going for it it is the issue of being it an export definition for the corporate sector in europe. julie: we are going to ask you to hang on. it is nice to get your thoughts. bob, staying with us. president trump is about to speak is a sign a declaration regarding martin luther king jr. day at the white house. president trump: along with isaac newton farris junior, and many deciduous guests for joining us here today. earlier this week, and had the tremendous privilege to join a to sign intot law legislation read designating the martin luther king jr. national historic site to the martin luther king jr. national historic park. it is a new law expanding the
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area to protect it, and historic sites for the future. generations of americans are becoming so important and this is a great honor for us. and a great honor to dr. king. today, we gather in the white house to honor the memory of a great american hero, the reverend dr. martin luther king jr. 1929, martin, luther king jr. was born in atlanta, georgia. he would go on to change the course of human history. as a young man, dr. king decided to follow the calling of his father and grandfather to become a christian pastor. he would later write that it was quite easy for me "to think of a god of love, mainly because i grew up in a family where love was central." that is what reverend king
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preached all of his life, love. love for each other, for neighbors, and for our fellow americans. faith,g's face, and -- in his love for humanity, led him and other heroes to courageously stand up for civil rights of african-americans. through his bravery and sacrifice he opened the eyes and lifted the conscience of our nation. he stirred the hearts of our people to recognize the dignity written in every human soul. today we celebrate dr. king for standing up for the self-evident dear, american hold so that no matter what the color of our skin, or the place of our birth, we are all created equal by god. this april we will mark a half century since reverend king was
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so cruelly taken from us by an assassin's bullet. that while he is no longer with us, his words and his vision only grow stronger through time. today, we mourn his loss, we celebrate his legacy, and we pledge to fight for his dream of equality, freedom, justice and peace. i will now sign the 15,lamation, making january 2018, the martin luther king jr. federal holiday. and encourage all americans to observe this day with acts of civic work and community service in honor of dr. king's extraordinary life, and it was extraordinary indeed. and his great legacy. thank you, god bless you all, and god bless america. with that i would like to ask a great friend of mine, secretary
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carson, for remarks. we will be signing the very important proclamation. thank you very much. ben? mr. carson: thinking mr. president. is an honor to be here today. julie: that was president trump signing a declaration related to martin luther king jr. day, declaring it a federal holiday and talking about the expansion of a park to honor martin luther king jr.. now ben carson is a speaking as well. i want to get final thoughts from bob, it has been with us for about 40 minutes in new york. bob, we have been talking about a wide range of different types of assets here, and this is something i've asked a lot of guests as we going to 2018 -- any wildcards, any warning signs you are looking for this year? it is difficult to spot the
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unexpected, but what are you worried about this year? bob: i think that we have become accustomed to having a central banks being supportive of markets and we are appealing that away as we go through the year. eliminates its purchase program for assets, as we think that they will on september 30, and good to zero for the rest of the year, i think the boj is a wildcard. i think the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome, they have and have not to results, so they may step back. the fed will become a net supplier. i think the market will have digestion in the second half of the year of this removal of accommodation by central banks, andactually a net snogging supply going into the marketplace, and i think that will be the testing period for
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the markets, the second half of the year. julie: do you think we are especially vulnerable at this point, because equity markets are so high for example? and i have read more that it seems retail investors are only now really participating in this latest leg up in the rally. bob: when you see the retail cash levels getting low you see the investors get more involved, and the fear is usually happens later in the cycle. if that is happening now and you get the removal of stimulus in the second half of the year, it could be a choppy time, and we could get an increase in volatility in the markets. i think the first part of the year will be a holdover from 2017, and we will continue to be surprisedd on returns and low volatility, but as we get into the midyear it will be a bumpier ride. mark: what is your favorite asset class in 2018? bob: if we have to go for the
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whole year i would say it is probably in the dollar. exposures, currency asset markets, i think we look at the returns in the first half of the year and then get the second half of the year phenomenon with a reversal midyear. julie: thank you so much for your time. we appreciate it. robert sinche of amherst pieront. a wide-ranging conversation on the for assets. now back to washington dc. ben carson wasn't speaking, following president trump. we are joined by alex wayne. alex, i am trying to figure out why there is a declaration for martin luther king jr. as a federal holiday when it has already been a federal holiday since 1983. i do not know if you can shed light on what the proclamation is about? alex: this is not out of the ordinary, every president likes
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to recognize days like this and re-proclaim that it is a day of special significance in the country. actuallyaid today was completely normal, nothing out of the ordinary, sticking to the script. did not say anything about the remarks from yesterday about the immigration meeting, those comments causing -- julie: consternation. alex: good word. julie: what about the remarks, and more to the point what does this tell us about maybe how the immigration talks are going to go? these remarks are the vulgarity that the president used when referring to countries in africa, disparaging remarks about haiti. senator dick durbin this morning also confirmed that the president did use those words, that language, a vulgar term come although the president said he did not. what does that tell us about how
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the negotiations are going to go? alex: based on our sourcing for our story on the remarks, i do not find the denial of the president credible. both senator durbin and others have all right called the remarks racist. it is not good for the talks, there is no tap dancing around it. democrats have a lot of doubt that this president really cares a lot about doing much for the kids who are covered by the daca program, so i think that there is some a deeper mistrust today than yesterday before the meeting, i'm afraid. it is also a problem that the president, and really just a handful of republicans in the senate, are blocking what looked like probably a deal that could have passed the chamber. it may have run into trouble in the house, but if they can at least make a deal in the senate
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first we are looking at potentially a government shutdown next weekend. julie: at this point, even given his comments notwithstanding, are there and of other people, members of congress both on the house and the senate side, that might be able to get something through and is sort of cut the president out of it? he was trying to be the leader of negotiations, as the televised meeting showed the other day, but is there a way that they could sidestep? alex: i doubt that they have a veto proof majority in either chamber to pass a deal that does not have the president's blessing, so he would veto a deal i believe that does not meet his demands, which now include ending family preferences in the immigration system, and dispensing with a visa lottery that gives out visas to those countries that do not send a lot of immigrants to the united states -- those are
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the two stumbling blocks, especially the family preference policy, that was a bedrock of the system and democrats are not going to just let it go easily. julie: thank you so much, alex wayne, are white house editor. now we see the president signing the proclamation that we were talking about. [chatter] [applause] >> mr. president, will you give an apology for the statement yesterday? >> mr. president, did you -- [indiscernible]
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president, can you respond? >> no. >> mr. president -- [indiscernible] >> mr. president, are you a racist? julie: the president not responding to questions about his comments yesterday in which he used a vulgarity to describe countries in africa, and made disparaging comment about haiti and not wanting immigrants from those countries. those comments condemned by various members of congress this morning, as well as by representatives of haiti and other nations. by the president not directly addressing any of that come even even as he -- that, signed the proclamation to honor my with their king junior, one of the most important -- martin luther king jr., one of the country's most important civil rights leaders. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: live from new york, i'm julie hyman. mark: live from london, i'm mark barton. getting back to the euro, rising today. yesterday the ecb boosted the current to come angela merkel giving it a boost. a session lasting more than 24 hours. angela merkel into social democrats hammering out a deal. -- inw we are joined by berlin. what kind of alliance will this look like? >> it is the alliance, which we know from the last four years, but this time it probably will be somewhat different. the social democrats, they were looking for something they can make into a big kind of sticking point. they have decided to choose a cure their main kind of topic for the next four years -- choose europe as their main kind of topic for the next four years. they want to be even more
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european and they have agreed to push into the contract sort of more money for europe. this of course, europe is welcoming, as he could say with the recent comments. mark: and of course, to even get to some sort of alliance we have to get past the hurdle that is votespv rank-and-file the later this month. how would that go? >> on the 21st of january the delegates will decide whether they want to enter into negotiations for a grand coalition. and they will probably look at this deal, but more so they will look at the alternative, and that would be new elections. new elections means most likely that they will be worse, or they will do worse than they have done in september. they are only left with the choice of bad and worse, and
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probably for that reason they will say let's do another coalition. and at the end of the negotiation process and there will be a vote among members, but that is more tricky because you cannot so much predict really the vote and the sentiment of the rank and file members. so that is probably the biggest risk. mark: again, if these talks had collapsed, would it have culminated in the end of some of these big political careers of the leaders of these parties? >> i mean, i think that is probably an assumption one would need to take, because the second kind of attempt to form a government under angela merkel would create a new dominic -- new dynamic, and would put at the front the question, is a merkel government still possible
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in addition to be another attempt? angela merkel said she would run in any case for a new election, but i think the debate would then have taken another turn, and all the people who are now sitting at the negotiation table probably would not be there anymore. germany, thank you so much for joining us. julie: it has been a pleasure being with you. still ahead, bloomberg's really yield guests today include a representative from securities, and another from morgan stanley. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i'm mark crumpton with first word news. -- says president trump's reported use of next with it to describe africa and other
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countries could potentially damage and disrupt the lives of many. speaking in geneva, robert resident'sid the comments "go against the universal values the world has been striving so hard to establish since world war ii and the holocaust." >> shameful comments from the president of the united states -- i'm sorry, but there is no other word one can use but racist. >> the president denies that he used foul language and says anything derogatory about haiti. the same russian hackers who penetrated the democrat party have spent the last few months laying the groundwork for an espionage campaign against the u.s. senate, according to the cybersecurity firm trend micro, saying -- nicknamed fancy bare is trying together the emails of america's political elite, looking for confidential information to leak.


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