tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg December 7, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST
anna: taking a hit. the aussie dollar drops and asian stocks stay in positive territory after a rally in u.s. markets. another record high. cutting costs at credit squeeze. slashess banking giant its cost base in a bid to make the bank more resilient in difficult trading conditions. edging closer, the italian senate is expected to approach -- approve the nation's budget, clearing the way for the prime as they to step down continue talks to real and potential investors. and building up to another key
meeting. we speak exclusively with the energy minister from abu dhabi, just days ahead of another pivotal opec summit. a very warm welcome to bloomberg daybreak europe, right here in london. manus. we are back together again. i'm back from the desert. let's talk about the aussie dollar. you mentioned it in the headlines, this is the second worst since 1991. the question for the markets is this, is this a flip or a trend? we had the election, brexit, a number of different factors going on. and down the aussie dollar went. question for the markets is
this, will the rva look through its week data and hold back, or will they cut rates? there's a 75% probability they will look to the data and weight. anna: interesting how the conversation in data is turning should bel asset -- fiscal. that the conversation we've had in europe a lot. this is one of only four contractions the australians have witnessed in 25 years, just show how rare it is. variousen overnight on asset classes, the msci asia-pacific, despite and because of the weakness in the gdp data out of australia, we have oil in there as well, down by .3%. slide to below $51 and down by 1.7% yesterday. it,s: if you think about
$1.5 trillion, has been added to global equities. where is the money moving from? is moving out of gold. it's being pulled out of precious metals at quite a case. will he get to $150 or just hold off touching that level until we get the federal reserve out of the way next week? angie is standing by. good morning. angie: here are your headlines, the australian dollar fell after the economy contracted more than expected last order as government spending fell and imports rose. gdp shrank by .5% from the previous quarter when it gained .6%. that is the worst contraction since 2008. >> despite 25 years of consecutive annual economic take that can never growth for granted in this country, ever. this is the growth that supports our jobs, our incomes, our
wages. the number of hours we can work. the sales are businesses can achieve. credit squeeze has stepped up cost-cutting efforts in an effort to refocus wealth management. targeting ank is operating cost base of less than 17 billion swiss francs by 2018. that's down from earlier goals below 18 billion francs. it lowers profit targets to the asian division. the u.k. prime minister has agreed to reveal more details on her plans for brexit. at the same time, theresa may challenged lawmakers to back her proposed timetable for withdrawing from the european union. she expected to see wording in the opposition labor party wording.
calling for the government to invoke article 50 by the end of march. meanwhile the supreme court hearing into whether the government can trigger article 50 without consulting parliament enters its third day. yesterday the town reached a two month high on market confidence that the outcome of the case will help the u.k. avoid a hard exit. president-elect donald trump offered the post of ambassador to china to a longtime friend of president shooting pen. it comes at it time of heightened tensions with china. -- president xi. roadng considers taiwan a robbins. bill gross says he expects the ecb to start unwinding its qe program at some point. the janus capital fund manager's comments, head of the ecb's hotly anticipated policy
decision tomorrow. >> the quantitative easing program will be reduced, if not eliminated at some point. extentket to a certain has already begun to anticipate that. and you: and the bank of england getting a royal visit. prince charles will tour the bank and meet governor mark carney today. since 2002rst visit and it comes after a year of skirmishes between the boe and some politicians over brexit, as of being toocism political. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. find more stories on your bloomberg. angie, thank you very much. we're getting some comments coming through from the deputy saying there's no need
to take action with yields around 0%, but saying it's possible to control rates and we know they're trying to control the yield curve in japan. manus: we will talk more about the ecb. let's go to juliet who is standing by. 1.5 trillion added over the past 30 days. what did you contribute? [laughter] >> not much, i haven't been doing much at all to lift the economy, but we been seeing some great buying coming through in equity markets in asia. focusing on the fact that the bond program could be pushed out past the march deadline and the strong likelihood of a december 14 rate hike. you seen a lot of buying coming through in banking stocks across the region today.
austrian financials leading the gains, closing up by almost 1%. in hong kong, a lot of strength from the banks. hsbc has embarked on a share buyback program but it shares lifting in line with the overall strength in financials. actually holding at its highest level since august 2015. good movement coming through from retail stocks and despite a bit of a shaky start, the shanghai composite also of by .4%. pushing theg in nikkei higher by .7% on the close. interesting to watch the bond market because it's been -- you were talking about those comments coming through from the boj. are seeing yields a little lower on the 10-year note in japan but similarly in australia, quite a bit of weakness coming through on the 10-year note.
anna: thank you very much, juliet, in hong kong. a quick look at the markets there. the most influential 2016 event is taking place today in abu dhabi. we have a big name in the oil markets. : a lot of oil traders still catching their breath after that historic meeting on november 20. let's get some perspective on that with the minister of energy for the united arab emirates. thanks for joining us on the program. exciting times, i can see the positive energy. you were optimistic before the opec meeting. here tods to happen maintain the momentum? a what needs to happen is
commitment from opec. we need as many countries as possible. this is not just an opec worry or concern. this is a concern by all of the producers that benefits all the producers. we need to see more countries participating, and i can tell everyonewe are calling in the organization, the president and ministers are calling their colleagues trying to bring as many as possible. yusuf: what figure is on your mind? is it 600,000 barrels? what number would you like to see? >> around 600,000, if we could get more, that would be great. what opect half of has committed to cut and if we can get that, then i think we
will get a quicker rebound in and we have targeted the market balance of course. yusuf: we've seen the gains and euphoria following the opec decision. gains.ces have trimmed if oil prices continue to decline, will opec act again? >> i think it's premature to answer that question. with study the level of production cuts needed for the market recovery, and i think it will be enough to achieve the the 1.8 million barrels per day. i don't think the market will average of 2016 if we truly a tree the 1.8 million barrels. yusuf: you're confident russia
will deliver its part of the promise? record,ook at the track it hasn't been very accurate. historically, the opec position to leave the marketmarket to balance and thet when the market is above balance, this is also a new phenomenon. i think we're looking at a new dynamic, and i have seen the commitment of russia from the beginning, they were committing, never calling us, we been communicating. they did not miss a single meeting. yusuf: what does this do to oil prices for 2017? >> i think we will see the reaction. it's almost impossible to predict. yusuf: you've got the crystal ball, so i hear. $50, $65 a barrel?
>> we need to leave it to the market to decide the price. i think of forcing at commitment and a decision, we are definitely going to see an appreciation. to what level, i think we need to wait and see. yusuf: what is a reasonable price for consumers and producers? what are you pushing for? >> i content your reasonable price is a price that incentivizes the level of investment. we need to see some of those capital projects come back in 2017. it's not only a spike in the price that those investors are looking for, they are looking for stability and commitment and those are the ingredients for a healthy price. yusuf: $60 a barrel?
instinct. gut >> i'm not going to tell you a price because i really don't know what is going to be the price. we talking about so many investors in the market. yusuf: let me jump to what's happening in the united states. arabic, hefore in playlays with fire will with fire again. that's something that's been referenced with the shale claim. do you think the rebound is not going to materialize, that shale is beaten down for a considerable amount of time to come? >> i don't think so. i think it will rebound. shale oil will come back, i think, if the price is right. significantne efforts to reduce operating so thend to optimize level of efficiency today is much higher and we will benefit from that.
happen,what's going to we will see a rebound. wewill stop the decline and don't need to see more decline in the shale all because that is not helping. a greatnot right is amount that floods the market at one time. i think we can accommodate some level of growth from shale oil as we can accommodate in the future, some level of growth from opec and other countries as well. yusuf: we will leave it there. we will speak to many more people and stay with the oil theme as we will talk to a representative of nigeria in opec. make sure to tune in for that. manus: well done.
the nigerianioned petroleum minister will join him later. here are some highlights for your day ahead outside the world of oil. industrial production figures the halifaxny and u.k. house numbers to pore over. at midday u.k. time, u.k. mortgage approvals and three hours later, the general rates decision from the bank of canada. slumpshe aussie dollar as gdp reveals the biggest downside surprise in two years. manus: the sunny could -- the senate could approve the budget clearing the way for renzi.
2:20 in the afternoon. all ships are rising ahead of the european central bank meeting. a glorious stayed there. let's have a look at the business flash. >> airbus has been selected by the canadian government to replace its search and rescue planes. according to people familiar with the situation, the deal is estimated at $2.6 billion u.s.. they said the deal is set to be announced tomorrow. questionsn referred to the government while the
canadian defense ministry declined to confirm or deny the story. they did not immediately respond to requests for comment. to get investors to back the lender. considering options including a limited form of state help as well as an extension of an ecb deadline to complete the capital increase. that's as the political back human italy chills demand and brings it a step closer to state a. a request for comment. present elect donald trump jumped into corporate affairs yesterday first to criticize one company and into hail another. he began by calling out boeing over cost to develop new air force one to cancel the order. hours later he celebrated a $50 billion investment in the u.s. by a japanese telephone --
telecom firm, softbank. >> i said this is great, the u.s. will become great again. >> that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: the aussie dollar has taken a hit this morning after data showed the australian economy contracted more than analysts haddata showed the ausn economy contracted more than analysts had forecast in the third quarter. gdp shrank by .5% making it the biggest negative surprise in two years. manus: let's bring in our guest, a senior currency strategist. jane, welcome to the show. sincecond worst course 1991. there were a lot of things in the mix involved. will the rba look through gdp debt, which everybody says is historical.
swaps market is saying 75% probability they will hold off doing anything on rates. >> i can see why the market thinks it will look through. there are several reasons for that. they anticipate gdp will bounce back in the fourth quarter. there's also the new rba governor. he's been saying we will look through the data to more of an average level. there's plenty of reasons to argue that they could look through it, but if you look at the labor market, look at the headline data, it you think it doesn't look too bad. last quarter, wage inflation in theralia, if it wasn't lowest ever reported, it was
certainly one of the lowest ever. a very low number. this is the developed world problem. in all strata, it's really very bad. it's partly a function of moving out of the mining boom into the new sort of economy. a lot of the well-paid mining jobs have been replaced i much lower, service sector jobs. you don't get the growth off the back of that demand, and i think this is a big concern. the second reason we are concerned is china. particularly now with the backdrop of protectionism with the u.s.. anna: so you think the rba will cut again? >> we think the australian dollar will trend lower in the next six months and over the next year against the u.s.. if there is more bad news from , it will accelerate that outlook.
we were looking at this, this is a historical issue in terms of capital outflows. how much more difficult is it going to get? the main rulers are saying they're looking at this irrational move of capital out of china. is it irrational, or do you think it will get worse? think it is a rational, in it will get worse. since the start of the year it's been pushed into the backdrop. there are still concern about the high levels of debt and about whether or not there's still the possibility of a sharp slowdown at some point. with respect to the people's bank of china, of course therefore exchanges open in order to try to prop up the level of the currency.
the threat that potentially you label china ao currency manipulator. if he does that, china has no other option but to allow it to fall at a faster pace. i was reading a great that how china manages its currency is likely to be the global economic story of 2017. we're all thinking about donald ,rump and europe at the moment but it's going to be that currency of the time. >> it certainly could be. was pushed toy the back burner but it could come up again at any point. risk, if be a big china were to be right about growth, at some point it might
anna: welcome back, everybody. it is 3:30 in the afternoon in japan. 114.24 is how much yen you will have to spend to get a dollar this morning. that's helping some of the equities in japan. nikkei up by .7%, outperforming some of the other asian equity markets. daybreak ison of available on the bloomberg and on your mobile. manus: that's very politically incorrect, quite probably.
are in the eu's crosshairs for rigging the libor. that's according to people familiar with the matter. ranging from tens of millions of euros to the low hundreds. you're not going to die of taxation regulation. it's amazing were still talking so many years after the financial crisis about banking declines. upomberg intelligence says 1% this year, following factory order data which jumped way above expectation.
the fourth quarter may also show a slight expansion. manus: the reserve bank of india , the central bank is expected to ease caused by the government decision to cancel high denomination bills. let's get the latest on the markets. >> were seeing a second day of gains for asian stocks, picking up from the u.s. trading session where we saw that dow jones close at a new record. the italian referendum very much out of the way at the beginning of the week. ecbntion now turning to the , a decision tomorrow where the central bank is expected to extend its stimulus program. you can see financials outperforming, materials higher as well and some of the industrial metals rallying, particularly on the london metal exchange.
a little weakness on health care and energy stocks pretty much unchanged. one of the best performers has been softbank. the rally did begin before the ceo met donald trump, but shares today have surged to the highest in more than 15 months after telling the president-elect he would create 50,000 new jobs in the u.s. by investing $50 billion in startups. another thing that's been in focus very much is the aussie gdp data. the contraction in the third quarter was worse than expected. the aussie dollar as much as 0.6%. the worst performer down against all its major peers but it hasn't actually retouched the low seen two days ago. it was one of the economy's worst quarters and 25 years, but
don't forget the quarter in question comes after the national election, the fallout from brexit and uncertainty going into the u.s. election. the index swaps have yet to signal to cut within 12 months. a very comprehensive market wrap for us. let's cross over to rome and the italian prime minister speaking to rallies by the party. trying to map out the future strategy following his crushing defeat in the referendum at the weekend. renziclearing the way for to step down as premier. good morning to you. how soon could we see renzi's official resignation? morning, as you are
renzi will call a confidence vote this afternoon p.m.bout 2:30 when he tendered his resignation on sunday night after the referendum defeat, the president asked him to stay on long enough for the 2017 budget to win final approval. this will be the final vote and at this point, renzi might be free to officially step down as president. let me remind you that at the he will address the senior members of the democratic , and you might say he is , but thisto stay
could be the perfect audience for his resignation speech as prime minister. manus: that audience this afternoon was the party faithful . it will be an interesting one. it will roadmap where we go next .or italy's government there's lots of speculation about who might be anointed as the caretaker governor. are people saying that renzi would even risk staying? would he have credibility staying? i don't think he's going to stay at this point. we don't expect him to stay. is he willappen probably go in see the president as soon as this afternoon. we think he will officially they will search for a temporary prime minister.
the list includes the and thetation minister head of the -- it will take some he will need to speak to most of the party leaders. it will take a few days. he might start speaking to them as soon as tomorrow. in terms of the general want the renzi might election as soon as february but the president has been very clear he wants to see a reformed election before considering holding general elections. we think the possible timing for this will be in early spring. anna: thank you so much. meanwhile, jane, the ecb is trying to work out but it does
with quantitative easing. with all the political changes were seeing this year in europe and the changes coming next are, we had this chart here. economist bringing forward some predictions for when the ecb brexit.rt winding down on one hand they seem to be giving a little bit more and on the other hand, they talk about when they won't be giving anymore. how does that work? jane: the consensus is they will extend. the qe program is set to end in march. around whether the ecb will use the word tapering. if you remember from the fed days of ben bernanke, it can be misunderstood and associated as a dirty word. there's a good chance mario
draghi will avoid using that term. he did say that qe would not be ended abruptly. that indicates that tapering at sign point will take place -- at some point will take place. at some point next year, you can see the tapering that is not called tapering introduced. manus: i found this other chart, the purple line is the ecb. it's doing the second-biggest quantitative easing, the ofond-highest to gdp ratio any central bank. if that continues into 2017, we have the fed in hike mode, what does that do to the euro? camp?u part of the parity >> no, i am not.
you expect the ecb to go down and the fed to go up. our anticipation is that the market may have overdone the fed rate hike scenario. right now we're anticipating and and his -- and interest rate hike from the fed. a lot of the talk is overdone. it will correct a little bit from the movement we've seen after the election and that will have an impact on the u.s. dollar. , thewe've seen this year hasr of the u.s. market dictated where it goes. it's almost irrelevant, and the u.s. yield curve is dictating which direction the u.s. dollar goes. anna: so the u.s. dollar is part
of the transatlantic that is in focus? i was reading an interesting report written by one of our in reference to the joblessness rate in the eurozone, particularly with young people. it is actually coming down and is that a seven-year low. but it'sl at 9.8%, coming down faster than expected. had: more recently we've better results from spain. what we've seen this year is a huge amount of monetary's ambulance both from qe and also more recently from the weakness of the euro. that will help allow the easing to promote the economy. manus: some breaking news to italy toour viewers,
ask for 15 billion from the esm loan. loan. this is a press report, yesterday we were reporting there was potentially a plan b, trying to raise 5 billion. this is the latest press report. it's amazing how plan b sometimes turns into plan a. anna: talking about the possibility of asking for 15 billion euros. this is in reference to the banking sector and what's happening with interest. manus: the u.k. prime minister has taken her post or exit trade hunt to the government. expected to issue a stern tone on iran saying the nuclear agreement with the nation is vitally important for security. prime minister has
highlighted the importance of boosting britain's trade and security relations with the gulf state. >> i'll be talking to them about the trade opportunities in the future, but this is about written here and now increasing opportunities when we leave the european union. of the deal terms with the european union but also the opportunities around the rest of the world with free trade. manus: jane foley is still with us. the brexit juggernaut will roll on. she is the prime minister and she's trying to win friends and influence people. when it comes to markets, we have the supreme court. latched into the supreme court. anna: i will not confess to understanding what all was happening. jane, what do you make of what we are seeing?
is that the big thing hanging over the pound at the moment? we have seen quite a rally in the pound since october. jane: we have. anything that suggests it was to have difficult access to the single market went down. in that respect, it was really quite simple. in october we had the party mayerence and theresa suggesting that brexit would happen by the end of march. since then, the market outlook has softened a bit. manus: the supreme court comes out and rules in favor of the parliamentary vote on brexit. we were arguing about this. of it is already priced in. the supreme court perhaps going for ruling in favor of the plaintiffs.
jane: i think it is more or less priced in. if we go back to the high court ruling, it's a clear judgment in favor of parliament. for 100 years we've been trying to take away the power of the crown. the market has gone into the supreme court hearing with the anticipation that the ruling will be in favor of the parliament making the judgment and not the prime minister. positioneen a lot of adjustment over the last few weeks. election, the market got really low in dollars. it's difficult for me to imagine were going to get through without a significant piece of news that argues in favor of a soft brexit. we are all busy digesting
what that really means. talking about the pound against any other, interesting thoughts? despite it feeling like parity for anyone who goes on holiday. months, ihe next few think that's when the cost of inflation. biting. then we'll start worrying about the pace of growth in the economy. anna: thank you very much, jane foley. manus: coming up, where live ahead of the rate decision. plus we are back in rome for the latest developments and what is next?
anna: welcome back. this is new york, 1:50 in the morning in new york. we manage some record highs on u.s. indices in equity markets. 6:50 here in london. let's get to the boom -- bloomberg business last. airbus has been selected by the canadian government to replace its search and rescue planes. it be others in a deal estimated at 2.6 billion u.s. dollars.
they said the deal is set to be announced tomorrow. they referredid questions to the government while the canadian defense ministry denied to confirm or deny the story. there was no immediate respect -- request -- no response to request for comment. >> a final push to sway investors back to the lender. executives are considering formns including a limited of state help as well as an extension of an ecb deadline to complete the capital increase as a political vacuum in italy kills demand and comes closer to state aid. an official did not respond to requests for comment. jumpednt-elect all from into corporate affairs again, to criticizeerday one company and to hail another. he began by calling out boeing over cost to develop new air
force one jets, tweeting, cancel order. hours later he celebrated of $50 billion investment by a japanese telecom firm, softbank. >> i said this is>> i said this. the u.s. will become great again. anna: that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you very much. decision day in india. the r.b.i. decides on rates today. the majority of economists surveyed predict a rate cut. anna: the big question, will it hurt growth and how deep will the pain go? mumbai, what are the expectations for today and why is there a need for lower rates, based on the expectation of what
has been happening in the money of cashpulling back availability in india? a lot of analyst and economist are looking at today's rate decision because after last month shock decision, this will set the tone of the economy going forward. bloomberg forecast at 31 out of 44 analysts have said they expect the rate to be cut to 6% while about five expect it to be at 5.75%. so there is an expectation of a rate cut today. manus: this is expected to hurt the economic growth, how severe an impact could that be? economist beginning to make predictions in terms of reality of what some say is a tremendous folly. of india's currency
was withdrawn in that shop announcement last monday. analysts already predicting that india's status as the fastest-growing economy may be in jeopardy this month. so there is a sort of expectation that growth may be tempered because of this move. anna: thank you for joining us on the program from mumbai. jane foley is still with us in the studio. this has been described as a significant move. larry summers called the policy change by far the most sweeping change in currency policy that has occurred anywhere in the world in decades. that put in context with the r.b.i. and adjusting interest rates accordingly. jane: we've seen some of the forecast economists are making on the impact on gdp. this is really big expectations
for the size of the impact. india was a shining light. india was the one still growing very strongly. yet now we have this big concern. that said, things have improved , at ther, even russia risk of changing dynamics in the emerging world, certainly this is part of it. interestingl be what the r.b.i. governor has to say about the impacts of this policy. manus: you mentioned you merging markets. we had that discussion at the start of the show with the uae oil minister. it's a good deal, a rallying call, it will rebalance the
market. opec has done well to get a deal on the table. what does it mean for the broader complex if everyone gets to 55? jane: if the oil price rises too high, you will get more production from the u.s. self-limiting a number on the price of oil, whether it's 55 are closer to 60. certainly you will again see greater supply. were not anticipating you will see a continuation of the gains in oil, and that is huge, that you get the opec members sticking to their -- they don't have a good track record. think russia remains an
manus: the aussie dollar drops after shrinking. asian stocks stay and positive territory. and another record high. cutting costs at credit suisse. it cuts it 2018 target operating costs based in a bid to make the bank more resilient and -- amid different -- difficult trading conditions. edging lower. the italian senate is expected to approve the twice 17 budget tonight. clearing the way for the prime minister to step down. this as they continue talks to
real in potential investors. -- reel in potential investors. bloomberg daybreak europe. anna: we have some breaking german data this morning. yesterday's story was about the data that came in better than expected. yesterday we talked about factory orders. today it is industrial production coming in at 0.2% against an estimate of an increase of 0.8%. it is still increasing but certainly not the blockbusters number we saw yesterday. german industrial production rose less than analysts had forecast. and taking a slow start to the final quarter. the bundesbank has been arguing that the slowdown in the third quarter would be a lead up into a consumer expansion in the fourth quarter.
i got off to a 4 -- a slow start. the joblessness number is coming down. about the enthusiasts economy [inaudible] the board unanimously rejected the bpost offer. breaking news. frome carrying through the asian session. if you think about the commodity complexes -- you have london up by .50 1%. 1.5 trillion dollars has been
added to global equities in the past month. the momentum is there. do not necessarily be beguiled. anna: i will show you where we have been on the trading day. east --ness in the end boosting the nikkei. both of those up by more than .75 of 1%. we have the oil price and we're talking too many prominent guests on the subject of oil. thats pretty confident what opec has done is bringing into balance.ck we are down by .4 of 1% extending the slide below 61 barrels of -- dollars a barrel. manus: gold is at a 10 month low. precious metals have seen this fastest since 2013.
$6.2 billion has been taken. let's look at the bond markets. the italian government on market has more or less recovered everything that it lost in the initial wave. the market moves, 10 year government bond yields. saying those trades in the inflation boost to the rates in the u.s. possibly a little bit overdone. german government bond yields up a tick. waiting for the european central bank, will they extend qe but flag that it is time to taper and the italian government bonds have managed to undo all of the losses they had on the moment when matteo renzi lost the vote. anna: will mario draghi use the t-word. let's get the first word news for you. the estoril you and dollar fell after the economy contracted last -- more than expected.
imports rose. gdp shrank by half of 1% from the previous quarter when it had gained .6%. that is the worst contraction since 2008. despite 25 years of considerable economic growth, we can never take that growth for granted in this country. this is the growth that supports our jobs, our incomes, our wages, the number of hours we can work, the sales are businesses can achieve. manus: the cape prime minister has agreed to reveal more details of the plans for brexit. she accepted the wording of an opposition labour party motion seeking more details on her plans to an amendment.
them -- thebate motion today. a longtime friend of the chinese president according to three people close to the matter. the decision comes at a time of heightened tensions with china after trump abandoned almost ford decades of to for many critical by speaking jointly with the leader of time one which beijing considers a rogue province. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find all your top stories on your bloomberg. anna: let's check in with the market action. despite that disappointing gdp number out of australia that has not taken the age -- edge off the australian stock market. juliette: we saw the aussie
dollar fall but stocks did well financial space. hsbc up over 3% holding on a 16 month high and that weakness in the and pushing the nikkei higher as well, up by .7 of 1%. the shanghai market closed out on a positive note up .7 of 1% despite a bit of a negative start to day on the back of the yuan fix. it has been a fairly positive session for asian equities, a little bit of a weakness coming through in thailand, indonesia, new zealand. we had a solid rally coming through and that is mainly on the back of the momentum ahead of the fed rate hike and we -- the
it is predicated on the european central bank which has an important ramification for the entire banking system. we have a shift in the you curves, help the banks, a higher u.s. yield curve. still bound, are tethered, absolutely, inextricably linked to the ecb continuing their buying program. >> there was generally a lot of short positioning in that market. theere bound to after result, no matter what the result was going to be, as long as it was not a catastrophe, there was bound to be short
covering. we saw that. not going to buy before the referendum but after the referendum and a no vote, we were highlighting it was not a catastrophe. they just wanted to see what the result was. see if it of calm and the came into by the market. --t is the mentality that is predicated. it is all about there being a being aon of europe going concern being held together bite monetary easing, therefore it was an opportunity to buy the dip. anna: will that be the story tomorrow, will that result in an of the program. others are talking about tapering. maybe they will do both in the same day. >> it is possible. it is -- there will be many
shades to this, it will be one of the most difficult to interpret that we have had for a long time. we are expecting them to extend the program, addressed bond scarcity so that means making technical changes to how they conduct the purchases, also some technical changes about how they land their securities out. finally we think that it is the right time because they are going to be presenting their 2019 forecast which are going to have to be optimistic. -- the program can come to an end. 1.8% inan europe make terms of inflation? thank you for coming in and covering credit suisse. next. we speak exclusively to nigeria's oil minister ahead of this weekend's key meeting. how much can opec count on the support of non-opec countries? this is bloomberg.
manus: welcome back. you're watching daybreak. a shot of berlin, berlin waking up. are bid.re bid, stocks production .3 of one percent. the market was looking for .8 of 1%. less than forecast for the industrial production figures in germany. fairly nice day there. >> airbus has been selected by the canadian government to replace a search and rescue plane. there is a deal estimated at two point 6 billion u.s. dollars. announced tomorrow.
they referred questions to the government while the canadian defense ministry declined to confirm or deny. they did not immediately respond for requests for comment. to swayg a final push investors to back the lender. according to people with knowledge of the matter, executives are considering options including a limited form of state help as well as an extension of an ecb deadline to replace its 5 billion euros increase. that is if the political vacuum chills to my and and brings demand a step closer to state aid. matteo renzi's office did not respond to a request for comment. president-elect donald trump jumped into corporate affairs again criticizing one company and then to hail another. he called out boeing on the cost should develop a new air force one jet claiming -- saying to
cancel the order. >> [inaudible] he would do a lot of deregulation. i said this is great. the u.s. will become great again. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: the uk's prime minister has taken her post-brexit trade hunt to bahrain. theresa may was sitting a stern tone on iran. the nuclear agreement with the nation is vitally important for security. anna: the prime minister highlighted the importance of boosting britain's trade and security relations with the gulf state. >> it will be meeting gulf leaders and talking to them about the trade opportunities
for us in the future. this is about britain here and now increasing our trade opportunities. what we canus for achieve in terms of the deal but also the opportunities that there are around the rest of the world for us to do trade. --us: peter chat will is chatwell is with anna and i. what happens in the supreme court is another issue. it has absolute direct correlation to the pound and the guilt. -- gilt. back, with my 3d. you have shown me this. this is a gilt market. if article 50, if they had to have a debate in parliament,
what does it do to gilt, to the bond markets, to u.k. sterling assets from mizuho? anyt: it will be -- information is positive for sterling. any kind of debate in parliament will flush out some detail. sterling was falling because of the uncertainty. any kind of information is good for sterling. that means there is going to be ultimately something that is a bit less of a concern on the butation side of the gilts, a bit of optimism about the economy would negate that. i am expecting that gilts staff at the 130, 140 level. this is our forecast, we are expecting the curve to remain on a steepening trajectory. anna: you are just showing some charts of a unit full 3-d image of the gilt curve. we were using -- looking at the
10 year. statement and it seemed the government was dipping its toe into if we decide to be a bit more fiscally expansionary. how will that go down with the market? bit [indiscernible] there were some expectations out there that philip hammond could done a trump light but it was a fraction of a fiscal package. he was dipping his toe into the water. the time for a fiscal package in his eyes may well be next year. as we get closer to brexit maybe he fears that there is going to be some uncertainty coming back into the economy. that is the time to push. anna: if we saw something a trump-esque, e u.k. proposed was not
on a trump scale. would markets react in such a laid-back fashion? guest: this would be something that would keep the upward pressure on the gilt yields. this would be an effort to normalize gilt yields. it would present upside risk even to expectations of the bank of england's monetary policy. should be very much like how the u.s. curve has reacted to trump. if there was to be something bigger. did find this chart this morning, we are talking about u.s. yields. what i want to get an idea from you is, are we at the top of id to theation b treasury market. it was a little bit overpriced
and presumptive. anna: they are suggesting that is more significant than what we have seen. guest: to give you an idea, we and thinking that it would the year at 245. we are almost there. the only way that we were going to exceed that and this is a risk i do not think has been touched on very much. if the fed still [indiscernible] it depends. --the feds say they will where they will normalize rates too. if you are james bullard than this next hike in december, this certainty, that is it. that is rates normalized in his eyes. if you cast your mind back to when the fed was talking about
the normalization of the exit policy, it was to stop reinvestment in coupons. we could be at that point. it hands upon this next hike, is it going to be dovish or hawkish? are they going to try to tell us that this one hike that they get away from the zero down and there will be two ways from their. anna: do you expect we will see more hikes in 2017 or is it a one a year? manus: they only see one. normality is? guest: two. rate off thehe zero bound and see where it goes. thesee where [indiscernible] and it is too high. anna: the european open is next. anus: it will have