mark: japan holds from the stimulus boost as inflation is stalled. cheap oil will soon fade. manus: raising rates. the fed leaves open the's -- leaves open the possibility of the second hike as brazil puts its benchmark rate up for the fifth time since october. caroline: great exit signs. an exclusive bloomberg poll shows the majority of analysts believe an exit is on the cards. the eurozone sets a new sunday deadline. mark: earnings day lesion europe. we get numbers from some of europe's biggest companies and we hear from the cfo as it
reports. welcome to "countdown." manus: coming up, i sit down with a veteran in the kipling suites at one of the most exclusive hotels in the heart of marburg. mark: breaking news from the mp of the biggest and in france, a surprise increase in first-quarter profits,. net income rose to 1.6 5 billion euros, up from 1.4 billion. bloomberg spoke to the cfo about the numbers. >> it stems from good performance in our specialized businesses.
that coupled with positive jobs means our revenue is outpacing our cost. let's not forget that it contributed to the acquisition last year. we were a leader in france, germany poland -- these contribute us well. the main thing is -- if you look at cip, they contributed to the exchange rate an increase of 13%, 15%. all stemming from business demand, both on high transactional volume and growth in europe. >> do you foresee that this recovery is going to be sustainable? >> there has been a good demand this quarter, so businesses up and from a strong quarter last year i would say it is off to a
good start. we will see a glimmer of hope and how it could translate into sustainable growth. >> hope is continuing today? >> what we see in the quarter -- if you look at the domestic markets, we have an increase over loan demand of 1.6%, the first indicator of some progressive returns. mark: earnings beat bnp selling bonds and stocks 88% surge in pretax earnings at the investment banking division. the early stages of an economic recovery in france, italy, and bnp's other main european consumer banking markets underpinning lending. a surprising increase in first-quarter profits, and bnp's earnings day lesion continues. manus: oil comes out with
adjusted earnings coming at 22.9 billion krone. they have taken an impermanent in the first quarter of 46.1 billion norwegian krone. this is the united states on short assets. there is a charge of 46.1 billion sales, also missed estimates at 120.4 billion, below the estimate. pretax loss of 24.3 billion. a significant charge. caroline: the aircraft maker -- sales are just missing analyst estimates, but profitability is beating. 12.1 billion euros brought in in the first quarter, that is down on the previous year. but profit is also sinking, though not as much as expected.
we earnings before interest and tax, 641 million euros. clearly, that is an earnings share of 80%. they say we are confirming their targets slightly higher airbus deliveries in 2015 to boost production and to increase revenue before interest and tax. overall, they say the superjumbo double-decker has had no new orders in two years. they are looking to break even this year, and it seems as though the sales of airbus will be back loaded for 2015. they say it is a good start to the year -- solid operational performance and improved cash generation. they get a boost from their sales and the maker of fighter jets say they are set to achieve their target as they focus on
program management and implementation of core strategy. mark: bank of japan refraining from boosting stimulus, even after consumer prices halted. it is a big bet for a 2% inflation rate. zeb eckert has the details from hong kong. good morning. zeb: good morning. the governor of the bank of japan is clearly saying be patient, taking this view that inflation will rebound in japan. this is the impact of cheaper oil prices. he made the argument when oil is cheap that it was for consumer spending, ultimately leading to inflation. with oil prices higher, he estimates that inflation will do the same. there is dissent among some members, and certainly in the political realm. the is facing increasing pressure to in gauging easing and the market expects some easing by october, but today it
the bank of japan refrained from boosting the monetary stimulus and is keeping the bond buying target extension at ¥80 trillion. that annual pace remains unchanged. as for what he can do, the speculation is the market is that he may cut the deposit rate -- that would be more advantageous, especially when they have bought up most of the bonds on offer. the market is responding, the yen strengthening, and stocks in tokyo are plunging to a four-month low on the nikkei. mark: just sticking with japan, sony releasing earnings at 7 a.m. london time. what are we expecting to see today? zeb: it will be interesting to see what these numbers reveal, because the ceo of sony has been under intense pressure in recent months, and in the past two years, to write this, and he has done a remarkable job.
if you look at the businesses he shed and some of the initial numbers that the nikkei is estimating we will see ¥300 billion, $2.5 billion, in operating profit. that would be equipped rippling of operating profit for the current year. these restructuring efforts are so key. currency exchange may have a negative impact given the move in the dollar. that could hurt profits to the tune of ¥100 billion. sony is seeing stronger sensors for the sale of smartphone and ancillary businesses. they are now front and center in the earnings report. they are moving from a television and movie maker to a diversified company. sony shares are down 1.7% in tokyo trade. mark: thanks a lot. caroline: let's get back to earnings over here. oil giant shell is releasing earnings today and its first
report is to be announced -- $70 billion in acquisitions. to fully reflect sustained low oil prices. will check with ryan chilcote now. you are going to break it down for us. it seems there has been a big impairment charge. ryan: a $60 billion impairment. it is one of the first big movers from this part of the world in u.s. shale, in pennsylvania, in north dakota and it looks like they are taking a hit. natural gas prices have plummeted on the back of the shale revolution will stop you have to write down the assets and take impairments at some point. if you look at the other side of the numbers, marketing, trading, refining plus trading -- saving the bacon when it comes to the operational result. same with bp, same with all of
the oil companies we are seeing out of europe. we are expecting the very same from shell when we get their results later in the day. mark: on shell, what are we expecting? ryan: the expectation is $2.5 billion in profits. $900 million of that will come from drilling. $120 billion from refining. refining and training -- i was thinking of it as like a diving class. the first two or three kids make the dive and do well, now it is shells turn. -- shell's turn. no one anticipated that the big european oil companies would be able to medicate the fall in oil prices as well as they have. this is exactly half of what it was this time last year. the only saving grace, i think, for shell's history, value
investing, first quarter, show fair price -- shell share price has gone up. i know you would like that. are you going to tweak that? mark: yes, i will. manus: thank you very much. a majority of investors surveyed by bloomberg say that greece will lead the euro. the finding comes as greece says it's euro area partners are in talks to break up an impasse over the bailout as early as next week. that's go to hans nichols. hans, run us through this.
hans: manushans: manus, you have a sense what global investors are saying, and there is a clear majority that thinks that greece will exit the eurozone. the number is 52%. what is interesting is that four months ago in january, that number was just at 31% on the question "will greece leave the euro?" there are some who think it will stay in but that number before was 61%. a clear shift. let's take a look at when this exit might happen. most people surveyed think that the euro will stay in the 42%. but before the end of 2015, a full 18% -- in the next year, 22% -- than 12%. that puts you at almost 40% of
survey respondents who think there could be a exit in the next year and a half. that is a remarkable change. you see why there is so much stress on greek banks. yesterday, the ecb increased emergency liquidity to 76.9 billion euros, to 1.5 billion increase, and we have yet another downgrade from moody's. manus: that is the reality of what is going on in the market in the bonds market. the line up for negotiations -- young bill is now on the side -- yanis varoufakis is now on the sidelines. hans: may 3 is the new deadline for preliminary deals. both sides are saying overnight that talks have intensified that they are moving forward.
they have a preliminary idea and they can codify that when finance ministers meet in brussels on may 11. here's what the finance minister had to say in an interview with bloomberg. he says there seems to be some movement in translating the bullet instant action stop there is a clear recognition that we have to have enough on the 11th to be able to keep talking. but copy out to this is that obstacle still remain. the finance ministry put out another statement talking about their own redline, like forms to the pension system. it is pretty consistent, what you hear from the creditors, especially in berlin. the pension system needs to be reformed. manus: thanks for taking us through. mark: top stories on bloomberg this hour -- fed policymakers have left open the possibility of a rate rise in the second half of the year. in a statement following the meeting, janet yellen and her
colleague played down the significance of the economy slowdown to a near standstill. they say growth will pick up to a "moderate pace." the central bank raised rates for a sixth time in june as latin america's largest economy is running away from inflation. they raised rates by 13 points making brazil be only g-20 nation to raise rates in 2015. a week for the general election, david cameron, nick clegg ed miliband face questions and a special tv television program. caroline: you can join us on the conversation on twitter. let us know what you think of the show, what you are thinking about the run-up to the election.
do let us know your views. trending at the moment, it is all about the big fight that is coming up on saturday, not to mention the u.s. gdp. mark: just tweeting out ryan's status the day -- stat of the day. i'm tweeting it right now. manus: coming up the fed says it may raise rates later this year. the bank of japan keeps dry. we talk about central banks and more. ♪
caroline: welcome back. breaking news -- air france results. it appears that we are beating in terms of sales, but they are posting once again a loss. 417 million euro loss looking at the earnings. estimates were for 411 million. this is a company they set by pilots strikes in france. they said the talks are ongoing with the union, but they are being eaten into in terms of profits. as a company that doesn't fair that will buy oil prices, they actively hedge them.
you have a strengthening dollar which is what you buy oil in and when the euro was weaker it doesn't tend to feed into your bottom line. they do seem positive on debt reduction. they say a significant reduction will be achieved this year. still posting a loss. mark: raising rates in the second half of the year despite a slowdown in the u.s. economy according to a statement from the fomc as they concluded their meeting yesterday. janet yellen was optimistic. let's get more on the fed and the currency market with derek . good morning. dollars 3% lower after a nine-month rally. it seems to have come to an end unless something spectacular happens today. dollar rally over? derek: certainly over for now. i think this is more a positive
rather than an end. there is a clear picture of the slowdown in the u.s. economy, as confirmed in the data yesterday, but it has left open the potential for a lot of these slowdowns being transitory. were not sure how much of it is transitory. they are not sure. but if you look at the gdp report yesterday, there is a 2% slowdown in gdp -- 8.2% slowdown in gdp. all the other factors in that export business investment and structures, it is still about the consumer. what is happening is that the oil price shock hasn't hit the negative side much more quickly than expected. the consumer cake in terms the
positive impact perhaps will come at a later date. but don't forget that in the second half of last year the average personal consumption growth rate was 3.8%, the strongest in a decade. and that context, -- in that context, it is somewhat understandable. the prospects going forward remain positive. caroline: you are looking quite upbeat when we come to the fresh data, which looks forward. hiring data coming out -- you think that will paint a prettier picture? derek: absolutely. wages are hugely important. yesterday's david had that jump. we have the employment cost index today, and the wages and salary component to the private sector, on average over the last three quarters, is the strongest. if we get another .6 today, that
will be the strongest annual growth since the collapse. it depends where you look, but wages are picking up, and i think it is only a matter of time before that starts to show up. strong employment growth, a pickup in wages, and i think the consumer is looking pretty good for a rebound. manus: let's talk about brazil. there inflation is rocking. the brazilians raised rates last night the fifth time in as many months. i'm looking at the dollar year to date -- the real is dying. what do you make of that? derek: there was a big rebound in the last month. the confidence has come back. there was a lot of domestic factors, particular fears about
the ratings downgrade. the risk that brazil would go to. fears have receded somewhat. there has been some progress in terms of getting some legislation through congress that will allow the government to reach its primary budget surplus of 1.2% of gdp. in that regard it has improved. i think that is the main reason. the central bank is the other. when we look to other external financing risks in the context of u.s. yields rising, you need to look at the real interest rate on offer versus the external deficit. obviously the central bank is tackling those external risks and that is reducing the fears in regards to the potential for further instability going forward. i think it will go back again, but it did underperform hugely. half the degree of
underperformance was excessive. mark: will dollar-ruble go back again? the bank of russia surprised everyone with raised rates. we are at 50 today, best-performing currency against the dollar. the central bank could will cut rates today. is 50 about as good as the ruble will have to for now? derek: it was obviously a huge deterioration and a credit risk. the best correlation we see at the moment is the cds which is showing a dramatic improvement. oil, obviously, is the other story, and we see crude oil continuing to move higher. then the scope is certainly very much there. we are still going to see a deep in russia this year 3%, 3.5%.
we need to be careful. they will only partially reverse what they have done. 100 points for sure, perhaps a little bit more. more specifically, i am a little skeptical -- crude oil will march steadily from here. perhaps that is where we are we reaching the bottom. caroline: closer to home, the ever ongoing saga that is greece. are you looking any more hopeful? derek: the most interesting development this week is the idea of a referendum. they are in a bind. they have made promises that the eurozone officials are saying -- it is not going to happen. the only way out i can see for him is to say, ok, i don't agree, i can't accept it.
real falling, a little bit of a change. the dollar has coming lower in the real has regained ground. just had a conversation with bank of mitsubishi saying they can expect the fear of junk status being attributed to brazil has receded. the dollar will retest its highs in the real -- around 3 to 3.25. that is what you could potentially look at. i mentioned the dollar. they didn't say what they were going to do, but they didn't have that feeling that june is off the board in terms of a rate hike. that seems to be the consensus from the marketplace -- september is much more likely. look through the gdp numbers, through the weakness.
the only thing that gave the dollar a better pick up was inflation getting back to 2%. that is optimism for you. but we have really seen april down for 3%. that is a nine-month rally finished. finished temporarily, or will it regain? that is what we want to know. yields in the u.s. treasury rose to 2.08%. what is happening? yields are higher, the dollar is lower. a little bit of a conundrum for the affects players. you would think that the dollar would left, but there was a bit of a backlash against that. kiwi another central bank another job owning day -- jawb oning day. down 1% at one juncture. rates remain unchanged, but the reserve bank of new zealand governor says that the currency
is unjustifiably high, that the appreciation is unwelcome, and that the market is taking that as an indication that they may go for another. bank of japan left rates unchanged. mark: we have some earnings crossing from france's biggest company. earnings in the first quarter rising to 1.7 3 billion euros exceeding the average estimates. today, sales climbed to 8.8 billion euros, also beating estimates, and they are repeating their forecast that earnings to share will be growing slightly on a constant currency basis in line with its previous forecast. foreign exchange movements may add 12% after the previous estimate of as much as 5%.
something worth noting -- sanofi says that appeals trump in the first quarter, a trend that could continue through the year. sales of its best-selling insulin are declining 5% dragging down revenue for the entire division. gains for other products failed to compensate. they have been cutting the price in the u.s. to compete. the chief executive took the reins this month, just a few weeks after they lost passage protection. revenue from the drug which went on sale in the u.s. this month, will be crucial in the months ahead. caroline: a bit of a mixed picture being painted by the german health care company. it is spinning off its plastics unit and we see first quarter earnings coming in at 3 billion
euros, slightly ahead of analyst estimates. they are slightly missing on the first quarter sales, but they say they will increase 48 billion euros. a previously thought their sales of the 46 billion euros. morgan stanley was right when they saw a four-year upgrade. this is a company that is benefiting from weakness in the euro and strengthen the dollar. when your own currency weakens you get more bang for your euro. net income is just slightly missing analyst estimates, but earnings stripping out some items into beating 3 billion euros for the first quarter. sales growing more than previously expected. you can see by our chief executive, martin deckers first interview of the day just under an hour. let's check out some other top
stories. the leader of the spanish party weighed in on the euro crisis telling bloomberg that european powers should not impose too harsh reforms on greece. >> the prosperity>> of greece is a problem for the european democracy. i think we have to negotiate and we have to organize the european powers in a different way. it is impossible for the state to pay the debts. caroline: meanwhile, basf has reported better than expected rockets for the year. the german chemical firms sought increased demand from the automotive and agricultural industries, helping to drive profits higher. they're also concerned that they are sticking with their goals to match earnings from last year. airbus reporting this morning. this company missed revenue estimates after its claim making
division made fewer units. mark: the world's number two recruitment reporting first-quarter sales in line with estimates, a 22% rise in earnings. let's get more with the chief executive officer. good morning. >> good morning. mark: looks like you had a good first quarter, helped in part by "significant favorable affect impact." where was the biggest impact when it came to affects? >> the affect benefit topline, but at the same time it is not benefiting costs. overall, there is a slight benefit, but most of the benefit we do see increased growth compared to europe
mainly in our french business. that is close to 4%. that gives us a good quarter. mark: do you expect the euro to stay week? it is off lows do you expected to fall further, given the ecb's quantitive easing program is just starting? >> this is not important. we produce and dollars and we get the profit in dollars. there is a slight uplift, but for us it is not that important. this all helps to boost economic growth in europe, and that will benefit. i don't think it is because of the quantitive easing, but we do see some uplift in a few european economies. mark: give us a sense of those
european economies where there seems to be enough left. -- to be an uplift. from the area of staffing, what are you telling us about this pick up? which markets, which sectors? >> what you see is that there is always a sort of equivalent to economic growth, but for example, the dutch business where they are growing at 1%, it is now growing at 10%. that is higher. it is a historical pick up. we lost a lot of temps. most companies are still building a flexible buffer given the uncertainty in the market.belgian businesses are doing well , and france is seeing a good pickup. q4 is still down 8% but it is quite a substantial improvement for a big european market.
again, not a real pickup economically, but it looks good. germany economically looks pretty sound, that the sector is not yet picking up there. overall, what we see is quite a lot of demand for replacement, which is a good sign of a recovery. mark: i can you tell us about the u.k.? i think i'm right in saying 5% of your sales come from the u.k. any uncertainty in hiring pensioners ahead of the election? how do you expect things to be asked of the upcoming election? >> that is always tough. elections always hampered -- or at least give uncertainty. first quarter, we saw some growth, so apparently there is not really any hesitation going on there. of course, after the election it depends on the outcome. that is a tough call.
mark: elsewhere -- you are prevalent all across the world -- north america's 22% of your sales -- what is the picture coming out of north america right now? it is not always like it is in europe, where the economies are in line. with the u.s. economy clearly a slowing in the first quarter what is your business faring like? >> yeah, it has been -- we call it a noisy quarter because of the weather and strikes, a lot of isolated things going on which apparently have had an effect on the economy in the first quarter. we see a pretty stable picture, however. we do still see good demand in the industrial and blue-collar parts permanent placement is still good. we see a stable picture.
please bear in mind that our u.s. business has been growing so this is already an economy that has been growing for quite a while. so far so good. the pickup is really in europe but the u.s. banks are still a stable picture. mark: good to chat with you. ask for joining us. manus: ok, air france reported their earnings. let's take a look at the numbers. kerry london. first quarter, passengers downup. kerry: they are still continuing the restructuring story, so the program has become 2020 program. they are asking for more. the top management will be meeting with members of staff later today, from what we understand.
the loss narrowed and that is a good thing. #up. they saw a fuel bill down, but that was offset by the strength of the dollar. a bit of mixed news. caroline: the company they must be looking to is iag. their turnaround has been phenomenal. how are we looking? carrie: it is one that seems to be going more smoothly. there is expected to be strong revenue out of iag. it is expected to narrow. this is driven by the discipline on the north atlantic for british airways, also driven by the success they have had in restructuring airbus. willie walsh was very positive. mark: will iag say anything about it did for aer lingus?
kerry: the million-dollar question. they sent discussions are ongoing. he said they want to have some sort of resolution within weeks. having said that, this is not a deal that walsh will want to rush. he will want to get this right. it will fit very well. there are lots of things which should make it happen and make it work, but he is not going to do this at any price. i think he is patient. i have a feeling that today, the focus may be on iag, emphasizing that they don't need anything to grow and they have a good business as it is. he may want to step away from making a lot of comments. i have a feeling that will be the focus. manus: always great to get your input. stay tuned because we will bring you an exclusive interview i did.
i asked him about the middle east expansion plans and currency swings. >> 27% of my businesses in the united states, so the strong dollar is good for me. it means more americans will come to you and have more money to spend. that will be good for my hotels. it is almost halved in value. although to date it hasn't seemed to affect the number of russian customers coming to my european hotels. it has affected results in russia, because although in ruble terms we are still doing quite well when you translate that into sterling and pay dividends, it is half the value it would have been. it has meant a bigger number of russians using the hotel and some petersburg. mark: you are seeing material
changes in the business complexion. obviously you are talking -- you have a position to come in the middle east. the petrodollar oil is collapsing -- have you seen that in any way shape into the business? >> no, not yet. whether it will or not i don't know. there is a lot of money in the middle east. there is more money to be invested than they almost know what to do with. one of the issues for the middle eastern governments. it's how to invest money that is pouring out of the ground. that is also quite important for me, because we like to invest in real estate in major cities across the world in countries
that are politically stable. they see the long-term value of investing in real estate. hotels are real estate, so i have to combine the two things. i run hotels and they invest in them. mark: it really is a family --manus: it really is a family affair. his father started a brand you will remember, mark. beautiful moments through the interview. he learned everything from his father, and his father's name still opens doors for him. he remembers being 15 with on the front of "the irish times." caroline: passing on the flame to his son. manus: his two daughters are involved in the business. they are involved in the grind, and they will come back in.
he will go off and do the grind. the bar downstairs -- i did want to have a donovan. beautiful cocktail bar. mark: why did manage to get the presidential chair, when sir rocco have the arm of the sofa? [laughter] manus: it was much more impressive with churchill in the background. [laughter] so rocco forte in a tie -- we were in the cap linkskipling suite. his sister and him got part of the money from the takeover. she does the style, she is the designer, and her daughter is alex, the hotel inspector.
the most gracious ceo i have had the pleasure of interviewing absolutely cracking manta interview. no fuss, no curve kerfuffle. he has awarded two to say about politics so you will want to stay tuned for that -- what does rocco forte think of this election? a few other issues we will cover through the evening. caroline: great interview. we will be looking at some of our favorite stories, including the brewer paying out interest on everyone's favorite currency. ♪
mark: let's take a look at our picks from bloomberg's digital volt. -- vault. titans of oil are experts in making predictions, and he has looked back at some of the big names and what they were saying about oil, and how wrong they are. the first person he highlights is john b. hess. he said "we have an $80 bread case, our stress test." faith hill $46 back in january. edward moore "when oil had
fallen, $20 a barrel may be on the way in the oil crash could spell the end of opec." there has been a $20 barrel and opec is still around. basically everyone who got it wrong. caroline: they come back to hunt you. i have a nice 1 -- the way you can raise money nowadays. everyone is into crowdfunding. you can also buy bonds that potentially pay you in time. you have heard of the burrito bond that was launched in america. we have seen the u.k. hotel shock a lot pain chocolate -- hotel chocolat pay in chocoalte. now you are can be paid in beer. it's all about micro brewing and different types of craft beer. this one, you can get 7.25%, or
mark: japan hold kuroda holds from a stimulus boost, betting the impact of cheap oil will soon fade. >> raising rates. the fed leaves open the possibility of a second half hike as brazil puts its benchmark rate for a fifth time since octagon. >> greek exit signs, a poll shows a majority of analysts believes that it is in the cards. the eurozone sets a new sunday deadline for a deal. >> we get numbers from some of europe's biggest companies.
we are breaking them live. welcome to cowen. i am caroline hyde. and i am man us. i sat down with a hotelier to talk business, currency swings and the u.k. election. caroline: oil giant shell is announcing earnings, a whopping $70 billion acquisition of b.g. >> the earnings was $3.2 billion, a solid beat. what i am not seeing here is anything more about cost cutting. that was the other thing investors were looking to hear.
last quarter they announced they were going to cut $is a billion of costs over the next three years. nothing here about that but a solid beat. you can only expect it was coming. the dividend, and this is key, coming in at 47 cents a share. that is 5.8% dividend yield. the commitment is huge for investors. shell says asset sales total over $2 billion so far this year. they are on track with asset sales. cost cutting, no information about that just yet. again, it looks like trading and refining has saved their bacon. we knew that obviously with oil price half of what it was last year, that was going to be under pressure. but clearly a strong performance from refining, helped by the fact that the refining marked in europe is
seven-fold higher than a year ago. a god day for investors in shell. >> let's get to r.b.s. first quarter numbers is a loss, 446 million points. the estimates were a loss of 175 million. this is a washing list for ross. 100 million pounds no payment protection insurance. 435 million pounds for restructuring the bank. 856 million for litigation costs. just to re-affirm, a loss at r.b.s.. that analyst estimates was for 175 something. it is f.x. rigging as well.
a 334 million pounds for currency rigging probe. that is an additional 334 million pounds for currency man plating. caroline, what have you got? caroline: i.a.g., owner of british airways, we are getting numbers for the first quarter. revenue just ahead of estimates, 4.7 billion overall. that is up is it%. what is interesting is that although we see a lot before tax, you are seeing them eeking out a profit of 25 million euros, and the forecast is up. they say for this year operating profits will be in excess of 2.2 billion euros. before they thought it would be 2.2, and now it is in excess. they are clearly looking positive after they managed to turn around the aberia group in spain.
>> the b.o.j. changing its forecast for core inflation. zeb joins us hong kong. what is behind this change? >> certainly we have seen oil prices having an impact as well. and overall economic conditions. you have had muted data, disappointing deity on output. this has not led to the uptick in inflation that japan wanted to see. let's get to the head lines. they are just coming through from tokyo. the bank of japan expects his it% inflation goal to be achieved around the first half of fiscal year 2016. so perhaps april of next year. that is what the market was looking for. now if you look at g.d.p. numbers, this is significant. they have revised downward their g.p.a. forecast. in january they gave us a forecast of 1.6% for full year
real g.d.p. now that forecast is 1.5%. so down graded marginally from 1.6% to 1.5%. if you look at the full year 2015, the forecast in january was 2.1%. now 2.0% is the number. they are clearly concerned about potential headwinds that will not only lessen g.d.p., lessen the overall growth of the economy, but also the consumer prices. they are expected to reach core c.p.ism this year in 2015. it will be .8%. january's forecast was 1%. they are not moving as fast as they would like to overall. let's check in on what is happening in the markets the nikkei 225 is down. you see a lot of selling pressure across the asian
pacific. the yen has been strengthening today. stocks deadlining as well. a lot of headlines out of japan. >> we are getting some numbers from sony. what are they looking like? >> let's take a look at the headlines for sony which are just coming in. the operating profit forecast was estimated at 401 billion yen. the actual number that sony is giving is coming in at 320 billion yen. let's lock at other metrics. the sales forecast slightly weaker than what they original estimated. an original estimate of 8.21 million yen. in all of these metrics, slightly weaker than expected.
the market was looking for an up side on the operating profit forecast. nikkeiest mated 300 billion yen. sony comes in with 320 billion. >> this is a down market. sony is down 1.25%. certainly at the close that is how it looks 3,638 per share. a snapshot of the yen since we were talking about the bank of japan earlier. it is stuck at the 118 levels, a strength of a quarter of a percent. a busy day in japan. >> thanks. >> a majority of investors surveyed by bloomberg say greece will leave the euro. the finding is coming forth as
they are stepping up talks. hans try and put this in context. we did it in the middle of the month. over 50% say they will leave. >> 52%, man is. a clear majority of investors surveyed by bloomberg think the greeks will leave the euro. 43% think they will stay in. the important thing is the delta, the change from january. in january 61% said they would stay in and 31% thought they would exit. it is that shift since the new government came into power is the shift. here is the time line. it is a full 18% before the end of this year. if that is in the next eight
hospitals, another 22% think next year and another 12% after 2016. 43% say never leave the euro. it is hurting the banks. we have seen an outflow of capital. yesterday the central bank raised emergency liquidity assistance to 76.9 billion euros. that was a 1.5 billion increase. that usual hi matches the outflows, so greek banks are still hemorrhaging cash. moody's further downgrades greek debt into the risky territory. >> just on these talks. where are we? it seems like we have shifted a gear, getting lots of headlines, a big huddle emergency talks as it were trying to get something ready for the finance ministers? >> what officials are saying is
it is really the introduction and the hands-on approach by the prime minister that may mean these talks are finally serious. there is going to be another meeting today starting at the technical level. the new goal, may 3. a temporary agreement. if you have a temporary agreement on may 3, then the finance ministers could ratify it on may 11 when they need in brussels. here is what the austrian finance minister said. quite a bit of optimism coming from him. take a look at this quote. there seems to be movement in translating the bullet points into action. there is a clear recognition that we have enough on the -- that we have to have enough on the 11th to be able to keep talking. quite a bit of optimism there. last night we did hear from the finance ministry in athens, and they reiterated their line.
even though there is some negotiating and talking athens and the finance ministry continues to lay down red lines. are those the -- whose red lines are those? >> i think you have hit the nail on the head there. >> now the top stories on bloomberg this hour. policy makers have left open the possibility of a rate headache. the chair john elway -- janet yell enplayed down things. they say growth wig pick up. brazil central bank raised interest rates for a fifth time as latin america's hottest economy attempts to reign in inflation. brazil is the only good-20
nation to raise rates in 2015. conservative party leader david cameron and nick claig, and ed milliband face questions in a bbc program. caroline: temperature us what you -- tell us what you think. there is bill gross. him seeing a june rate rise in the united states in terms of interest rates is off the table. >> do join us all. the majority of you think so. we discuss that after the break.
caroline: welcome back to "countdown." greece will leave the eurozone at some point in the future. that is according to the majority of respondents in a bloomberg poll, who have changed their tune from january. then 31% predicted an exit. now 51% see cash-strapped greece leaving the current union. for more we are joined from brussels by the executive director of global market assets. do you agree or concur? 51% say greece is out. are you expecting an exit? >> we are hoping not to have one but we have to acknowledge that the risk of having an exit has only increased over time. we have wasted too much time since the beginning of the year. we have a very difficult month
of may in terms of payment to the i.m.s. the next due is tomorrow. one payment is expected mid may. we have other things next woke as well. the ability for greece to finance itself through auctions on the mask will be limited if markets start to discount an exit. the probability has increased. i do believe that at this stage a 50% outcome is definitely a scenario. there might be some inflection at this level. we have seen a reshuffling of the negotiates team in the greek government. things were turning personal with the euro group. that is already something positive. what was also positive is if
greece is about to accept more austerity measures from his creditor, he will have to organize a referendum to ask greek citizens if they agree with that. last week two polls were published and show that greek people actually would tolerate more sacrifice to stay in the eurozone. so there is a willingness to keep greece in the eurozone from the e.c.b., from the euro group, from the greek government and cities as well, but i have to acknowledge that the clock is ticking now. caroline: what do you think about, looking across the atlantic, the united states, the federal reserve coming out and leaving a rate rise on the table. we saw a huge move in government bonds. we saw borrowing costs jump up for germany, portugal and
italy. should that occur in the united states? >> a correction remains at this stage rather unlikely. the fed will probably raise interest rates at some point in this year. the fed has given conflicting data to look at at the moment. in the u.s. we had g.d.p. figures that were much lower than anticipated during the first quarter of this year. the temporary effect of the weather, the strike, and due to the drop in oil price we have seen the capital expenditures has detracted a lot from g.d.p. while this almost is going to stay for next year, we do expect to rebound in g.d.p. in
the second quarter. depending on the strength of the rebound, the fed will have to act sooner or later. one thing is sure. that is that when we look at inflation data in the u.s., this is clearly in line with the forecast of the fed, and clearly this would actually pave the way for an earlier than expected first fed rate hike. we saw inflation picking up to 1.8%. this is really getting close to the target of the fed also the reason why they kept the door open yesterday in their statement for a possible june rate hike. but maybe what is more important for investors is to look at the balance sheet of the fed. at the moment, even if the fed considered a hike, they won't change anything to their balance sheet at the moment, meaning that the long end of the curve really remains under control, also helping that with what the e.c.b. or the b.o.j.
or doing in europe or japan. it increaseses things globally. the european investor and japanese anniversary looking for higher yields might be tempted to cross the ocean and look at u.s. treasuries as well, which would help the fed to decrease on the short end and manage the damage on the lopped long end. caroline: thank you. running us thrull u.s. fed and greece. manus: coming up, more from my appointment with the hotelier. find out what he minx. david cameron, a coalition government. very interesting.
manus: time for more from my interview with rocco forte. i asked him if u.k. coalitions really do work? >> yes, i think they are. you don't that have decisive government as a result. it is something that we have seen in the last five years. >> what is the worst-case scenario for us here in the united kingdom as we go to the polls? >> worst-case scenario would be a labor lch s.n.p. coalition, i think. the labor manifesto. we haven't seen such a left wing since the 60's and 70's, talking about rent controls, price controls, more labor laws, all the things which are going to hurt business. all this talk of nondoms, they are already packing their bags. >> is that true?
>> yes do you think the nondom issue would wreak havoc, we are in the heart of it? >> this mansion tax is terrifying everybody. there is talk of a is% value. if -- talk of a 1% value. you have a house worth 50 million. you are paying 150,000 a year. you better sell your house or rent your house. you can rent a house for that. >> none of the people in the election look like they are going to get a clear lead or majority. what has this administration done wrong that they haven't convinced the country of the constructive thing they have done? what has gone wrong for cameron? >> i don't think there is a clear idea of where they are going.
manus: welcome back to "countdown." 7: 30 in london. one central bank bucking the trend with good reason. we will see how it starts to trade later in the gay. this is the only bank in the g-20 going in the opposite direction to the rest of the world, raising rates by a half percentage point. the dollar rising. still a time over 10% on the year, 11%. you can see that the direction
of travel has changed quite dramatically inflation running at 8.25%. that is why you saw a half point rise by the brazilians. there is a great deal of concern about a jump status. it seems to be dissipating ever so slightly. we had a conversation with mitsubishi this morning. derek says getting ready for them to retest at the 300 left or the 3.20 level. the consensus seemed to be that june is not going to be a rate headache, most likely in september. in the month of april we are down now nearly 3% -- over 3%.
the c.i.o. was on our air saying the super rich still love the dollar. but g.d.p. data was disappointing. the fear factor is receding. i like this. this is what citigroup said. the fear factor is receding on greece and that is taking some of the buying tone out of the dollar. also difficult to get your head around, yesterday you saw a big move in bond markets. you saw treasuries rising in field, falling in price as well. you are seeing rising dollar yields, but the dollar is deadlining a bit. could it be that greece actually trutches the dollar yield story in the interim? was it fear driving the dollar rise? have a quick look at the new zealand dollar before you go. that is where you get bang for
your buck. they didn't change rates, but the reserve bank governor made the point that the currency is june justifiably high. that is another jaw boning central banker as the new zealand dollar dropped blowing 76 a time over 1%. there could be more rate cuts from nudes center field bank. caroline: let's check in on other top stories. r.b.s. has posted a big loss in the first quarter. hit by charges over currency rigging and restructuring costs, the bank reported a net loss of 446 million pounds. this come pairs to a is.2 billion pound profit last year. tumbling crude prices have hit royal dutch shell. they reported a 46% -- a 56%
loss in profits. and cement giant saw sales rise 6% in the first quarter, in line with estimates. the company confirmed its outlook anding said it is entering the final stage of a transaction. you can see interviews with both of them early this morning. that is bruce and bernard. both conversations you will not want to miss. and france's biggest bank, b.n.p. pair because d. -- it say pretax earnings surgele 8%. revenues from equity trading was higher. mark: getting some live pictures where kuroda is
speaking. the b.o.j. held rates today but has revised down gets g.d.p. and c.p.i. forecast. inflation won't hit its it% charget until the middle of the fiscal year 2016. there he is. we will keep an eye on that. pharma big day. sam is here to break it down. it was a beat wasn't it? it was. mostly driven by fournette exchange. i think we are going to see that theme develop. the unsettling things is they have beaten on the b.p.s. line, but they have not raised full year guidance. that is when people said what is going on?
either that beat in q 1 was something specific for the first quarter and we are going to see weakness the rest of the year or it was due to some non-operational issues. that is never a nice thing when you see a 1 q beat of this level and no change for the full year. another thing that was disconcerting to me was atlantis. it is bigger chunk of products. one problem is pricing pressure in the u.s. that is coming in line with analysts estimates. they have actually missed estimates. that is where it is not particularly pretty. i think that would be the focus of a lot of the discussion today. they have had good numbers out of consumer and animal health. that is really the sum of what is going on with sanofi.
caroline: and the fact it is not doing well there is competition? >> yes. they only have one competitor, who also missed consensus there. it is a vicious circle to a degree, and you want it to stop at some point. they contract against each other. they go and win some contracts by promising slightly lower promise, which is what sanofi had to do, which impacts the competitor, two. at some point that will stop. nova has raised their operating profit guidance, but a lot of that has been because of the big cash flow they are getting out of the i.p.o. of their i.t. division. manus: currencies helping them
all. are you satisfied with what you are seeing? >> they are getting a boost from the f.x. stayed. there are two companies who stand out. they both look like they could be on their way to raising their guidance as we go through the year. manus: thank you. let's move the agenda on now from pharma to banking. we saw profits rise by 73%, 4.83 billion kronin. time to take a closer look at the numbers. joining us from copenhagen, it is the c.f.o. henrik great to have you with us this morning. what a splendid reading for the newspapers. fee up come up 19 -- fee income
up 19% and others. is it a success tableable? >> it is not fully sustainable for long run, but we have had a good start in 2015. we have had turbulence in europe we have had a change of interest rates. we have had a real good sflow of business especially among our corporate and institutional. so trading is doing well here in q 1. we have or to a very good start on the year 2015. manus: i suppose that you share that with everybody out there. some people would say we didn't need an attack on our currency to help on trading revenue. let's talk about the trading currency. negative interest rates in denmark of .74%.
is the selling of the euro, buying the dayne us crona down, is the battle over? >> you should ask the central bank whether it is over. it looks like the pressure is easing. but it is important also to stress that our underlying bank -- manus: we seem to have just had a bit of a break in communications there with the c.f.o. at danske bank. he said you have to speak to the central bank. mark: and then he disappeared. manus: he did. it was the same what we have seen from parabais and credit suisse and others. caroline: and not sustainable. manus: go on. a c.f.o. that tells the truth.
mark: time for today's bar chart. what is april's best performing asset class? be aware i have tabulated these numbers on morning of the final day of the month of april. look no further than the dubai financial mark general index. it tops the chart of 93 global stock markets we track at bloomberg. in local currency terms, the d.f.n. has jumped 20%, closely followed by shanghai and china, is the%, and the worth performer, indonesia jakarta
index. europe stoxx 600 index. i have waded through world bond indexes. the one that stands out is nigeria's local market. the gaming has jumped over 7%. this is the local sovereign index. the line down the chart is when april the 1 commences. sovereign indexes in europe have lagged far behind. the eurozone sovereign bond index has dropped. only two newer area bopped markets have riosen that is greece and slovakia. let's talk currencies. le third tchart on your screen, the russian ruble is king of the crop. king of 174 currencies we track
at bloomberg with return of 14% against the dollar. it is also the best performer against the dollar year to date with a rise of 19%. that line is from the beginning of april. number two, a gain of the% colombia, and 8% in brazil real. the worst performing currency out of 174 in april, the tajikastan currency. crude oil coming out on top with a rise of 23% in the month of april. brent crude closely behind with a 19% increase. the worst performing commodity in april. wheat with a drop of 5%.
so crude oil would have given you the best return over the month. but russia does stand out. a 14% return for the ruble. a 17% >> for the t.s.r. there you have it. april he is best performing assess kehl. manus: these are stop stories. fed policy makers have left open the possibility of a rate rise in the second half of this year. the chair and her colleagues played double play the significance of the u.s. economy's slow down to a near stand still in the first quarter. they say it will pick up to a moderate pace. brazil bank raised interest rates for a fifth team and in june they may go again. that is the view from the market. the bank's board increased the key rates by a half% 13.
take%. making brazil the only g- to makes to increase rates in 2015. a week before the election, david cameron, and deputy prime minister and liberal democratic leader nick craig, and ed milliband faced questions in a special program. caroline: now a quick check on whatting it looking out in london. a beautiful picture on the morning. not so beautiful on the foots foots -- on the ftse 100 futures. it is truly international here. stay tuned. what is going to drive trade as europe opens in about 30 minutes.
mark: we had earnings from shell earlier. what is the take away? >> big beat. $3.2 billion vs. the expected $2.5 billion. the question is, all the other oil companies beat. how much does it really matter to investors in confer going to find out in a you for minutes, especially considering the fact that they beat for the same reasons everybody else beat. refining saving their bacon. refining was about 2/3 of their profit. crude sales were about one 10th what they were last year. will sales rise? then the answer to that is? mark: yes. they have risen every time they have released first quarter earnings in the past nine years. caroline: not today. cato down.
>> stat oil beat for the same reasons, but they too a $of billion impairment writing down their u.s. assets in texas and north dakota. this is what we have seen oil companies too. gas prices low, so they need to write them down. shell did the same thing last year same reason. mark: stat oil to b.g. shell buying b.g. where does helga go next? >> i am in over my head. mark: i am just speaking stuff. >> wherever they are paying more money. caroline: shell cooled up by another half. mark: there you go. don't fight history. >> that might be us influencing share prices. manus: this one is like a washing list of provisions and
litigations. they made a loss in the first quarter of 446 million pounds. market was looking for a profit of 175 million. why? a variety of reasons. pavement protection goes on 100 million bounds. barclays was 150 million payment protection yesterday. restructuring charges, a lot of this due to their investment bank. 435 million pounds restructuring charges. when it comes to litigation, including an additional provision for the foreign exchange investigations, you are looking at nearly 900 million pounds for litigation and misconduct. you are looking at that. on the flip side you have a business that is very u.k.
centric in what they do. it is a bit geeky, but net interest margin rises. that is actually telling you something about the underlying business. they say they are in advanced talks for the department of justice for f.x. settlement. mark: staying with banks, p.n.b. paribas is there. they had an investment banking arm which rose in the first quarter. there was a rebound at the c. i.p. banks. so it was an earnings beat. an 88% rise in pretax earnings. economic recovery in france italy and other consumer banking markets, underpinning lending as well. things looking good for them. this quarter will it last?
>> somebody unplayinged him maybe from the trading no. no, it won't. that has been extraordinary in terms of volatility. and equities bombing along for anybody. caroline: i am going to stay with france. it has cooled off 1% to 2%. the actual numbers missed analyst's estimates. they are not telling selling as quite the rate they are used to, but profits did beat analysts. they are staking toe -- sticking to their full year guidance. i.a.g., sticking with an airline theme loans welling iberia could be down slightly because it is painting a slightly slower picture.
jonathan: good morning, and welcome. moments away from the start of european trading. some monster moves. i am looking at futures. a little bit higher. we get to your morning brief. here it is. the bank of japan holds back. the japanese central bank resists the temptation to reduce monetary policy. first-quarter profit plunges
56%. the oil market collapse eats into the bottom line. a third-quarter loss of 436 million pounds related to restructuring and currency manipulation continued to mount. i g at futures. we are pretty much higher. that's not much of a reversal is it? manus: you are spot on. 12 billion euros was wiped off the market book. for me it was all about the bonds. you saw the biggest spike higher in german government bond yields and almost seven weeks. 12 basis points. an eighth of 1%. people were talking about 0%. lever me up 100 times.