tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 27, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT
deutsche bank, they will slash costs, closing 200 branches and exiting up to 10 countries. our hans nichols speaks to anshu jain this morning. and greece is broke. can they make it to a key deadline? good morning, everyone. this is "surveillance." we're live from our world headquarters in new york. it is monday, april 27. i'm tom keene. joining me, olivia, brendan is on assignment. olivia: a race against time in nepal. searchers are trying to find survivors from the earthquake that killed at least 3600 people. international relief agencies warn the next big problem may be disease caused by tainted water. the quake that rocked nepal on saturday measured 7.8 on the richter scale. millions may be homeless, many in villages that are hard for aid workers to reach. >> some of those villagers have a one to two day walk.
during conditions like this, it is extremely difficult to know how we'll get there. we do have teams in the area. there's heavy casualties there and injuries. these are far, remote-lying villages. olivia: here's what it looked like on mount he have rest the moment the earthquake struck. at least 19 people were killed there, including three americans. one of them was a google executive. the other two were a denver-born filmmaker and a seattle-based doctor originally from new jersey. helicopters evacuated almost all of the 188 climbers who were stuck on the mountain. and deutsche bank is planning to make major cost cuts to revive its profit. lenders are reducing costs. it will shrink its securities business and cut back in its ownership of its post-bank consumer unit. one analyst estimates deutsche bank could cut about 3,000 jobs in its retail banking division, and even more at its investment
bank. and opening statements are set for today in the colorado movie theater massacre case. james holmes has pleaded want guilty by reason of insanity. he is charged with killing 12 people and wounding 70 others inside a movie theater in colorado. his lawyers admit holmes was the gunman, but say he was in the middle of a psychotic episode. and for the first time iphone sales in china may have beaten those in the u.s. january to march this year, apple may have sold as many as 20 million iphones in china. analysts say one reason is the design of the new models, both the iphone6 and 6 plus have larger screens, which have turned out to be particularly popular in asia. apple reports earnings after the closing bell. tom, the baseball season isn't even a month old, and this could be the catch of the year. mike johnson of the white sox hits a ball into foul territory. alex gordon of kansas city's royals races over and dives into the crowd to make a
jeter-like catch. he hung on to the ball and didn't appear to get hurt like jeter. probably shouldn't be surprised, he is a four-time gold glove winner being one of baseball's best fielders. look at that. olivia: amazing. even though he's out of bounds the catch is still good? tom: very good. fair question for our global audience yes. if you catch the orb out of bounds, it is an out, even even if your feet leaps. brendan, i miss him. wait he knows less than you. equity bonds we're going to get to this quickly. we got to go to the important reporting from india, and we hope from kathmandu. futures up two. on to the next screen vickly. the v.i.x. showing the complacence a been the market. i would point out yields higher.
abe in washington, and i rarely mention apple earnings because i think it's way overdone, but i think, olivia, this afternoon is a really cool report on a dow component. could they possibly go over $200 billion in cash? that's my question. olivia: if you look at the number of companies generating this much profit, it's a fraction of the s&p. tom: i don't get fired up. let's go to housing here. tuesday, bob schiller will be with us, "surveillance," oible radio tomorrow. there's a surprise here. i bought here, sold here up we go, and we're at 4.5% over here. everybody thinks we boomed here. everybody thinks we boomed here. that's wrong, wrong, wrong. the vector goes back to 1998. but it was higher, higher, everything is great. for much longer than people think in the housing market, so there's -- take schiller, but i
think that's an important story. it wasn't just about three years. olivia: no, and certainly not, the issue is supply and the tightness of supplies is really what is driving home prices, and seasonal, i wonder if we're going to see once again like 2014, if the bad winter weather is going to weigh on the housing prices and going to weigh on the g.d.p. numbers that come out. tom: again incredibly busy week. we can't contact them right now in kathmandu, because it's been a horrific weekend for nepal, and indeed for india and china as well. there's death, injury, mass destruction. we've all seen the images. this morning's focus is on the mountaineers stranded and now some evacuated from everest. but in nepal, it is a terror of
aftershocks. we go to new delhi. modi visited new delhi in august. it was the first visit in 17 years. and india leads with aid to nepal. what is the urgency in new delhi to get aid to kathmandu this morning? natalie: obviously nepal is a neighbor. india and nepal have always been very close, and they were one of the first in helping the nation out. the indian government has been at the forefront of sending aircraft in, getting in things they really need which is medicine, tents, food, water. they've been sending in search and rescue teams with sniffer dogs, but the challenge is of assessing the damage and also rescuing people are pretty insurmountable, and they're very difficult -- they're very difficult conditions. tom: we know the rich diversity of india. i was struck by 125 ethnic
groups, 27 spoken languages in nepal. it's really no different there. describe to us the relationship that india has with nepal within this diversity and within the history of the subcontinent. natalie: they've always been very close political neighbors, but there also has been a little bit of tension in the sense that india is often accused of treating the region as a backyard. modi did a lot to sort of address that kind of resentment when he first went to nepal and spoke to them in the local language. and undoubtedly at times crisis like this, india does pull through for them. olivia: i know you were in nepal in the last earthquake. what was your first thought when you saw the tragic images coming through for the latest quake? natalie: it's really horrific.
what struck me is that nepal is one of asia's poorest countries to begin with. it simply doesn't have the resilience to bounce back quickly from an event like this. even before the earthquake, you were dealing with 16-hour power cuts in kathmandu. that's like living most of the day without electricity. you know, large parts of the country have never been serviced by roads. when you're talking about trying to get an economy like that back on track it's going to be very difficult. they'll need a lot of outside help. olivia: you're in delhi. we cannot reach our colleagues in nepal. what are you hearing from delhi? what's the status of the rescue operation? natalie: well, on the ground in kathmandu, obviously telecoms are very, very difficult. but the major problem there is there's no power and there's no water. there is the risk of disease spreading chronic, water-borne
disease these deal with, and that's being compounded by the fact that the power is down so you can't pump fresh water out of the ground. tom: natalie, thank you so much from new delhi. again, we have two reporters in kathmandu, and we hope we'll have conversations with them through this morning. prime minister abe travels to the united states this week. he'll be able to shop and the yen has been stronger and not further depreesht since last december. it's linked to janet yellen and christine lagarde. we bring you an analyst out of hong kong. before we get to japan, i got to talk to you about the experience of asia and earthquakes. i think one of the great messages here is there's a list of nations and cities primed for something horrific like we've seen in nepal. i would suggest one of those is japan.
when you go to japan and tokyo it's like los angeles after osaka of 10 years ago, where they're really prepared or there are significant concerns. guest: i was once in japan in a hotel, and it seemed like an earthquake, so i called down to the reception and said, is this an earthquake, and what do i do, and they said yes, it is, just stay in your room. the building was swaying because that's the way our buildings are. i didn't listen to the lady. i went right down and panicked and i saw these very old ladies smiling and quite happily taking the elevator. and so i think they're used to it and their construction technology actually is very good, because they just make their buildings sway. tom: i've experienced the same thing n our offices looking overly imperial garden. olivia, they sway. you're up on the 27th floor. let me not overdo it. it's like this. you know it's very -- owe live i can't: not to make light tv.
of course, japan is very wealthy, so that's why the buildings are prepared for this. kathmandu is largely shacks built on shacks built on shacks. they're not to earthquake code. tom: of course, historic monuments. i can't say enough about the video put up. i put that on my facebook page over the weekend. let's get back on track here. i see abenomics. is it a success? you've got to show me that it's been a success when i look at yen depreciation. guest: i think it is a success. they were deflating. they're now inflating. the main thing is that abenomics has animal spirits going. tom: it's got a nonnatural g.d.p. component going. guest: the way to do that is to get it up. tom: the basic idea here is yen depreciation, was that the only vehicle that made this happen? is this essentially a policy masquerading for a devaluation of a major currency?
we could have uncomfortable mass. guest: well the world economy is just much smaller in terms of a growth rate before the crisis. i grew up in a boarding school, and the way -- there wasn't enough grab, you grabbed the other guy and she that's exactly what happens in the world economy. tom: were you on "game of thrones?" guest: i think that works too. that's exactly what the japanese have done. it's not the only thing, because i talked to our japanese companies, and there is actually a revolution. japan was 5% five years ago, so they had 10% doubled and the profits have doubled partly because of the devaluation, because management is very concerned about institutional shareholders voting them down as the i.s.s. recommends if
they're not hitting a hurdle. olivia: right, maybe government forms. all right, much more to come on asia also on japan, the choin ease equity market there. but still to come -- we're going to break down deutsche bank plans to overhaul after paying more than $7.5 billion in settlements in the past three years. later, we'll bring you our interview. we are streaming on your tablet, phone, and bloomberg.com. ♪
the penalty phase of the trial. jurors must decide if he should be jailed for life or executed for his role in the boston marathon bombings. it is expected to take three weeks. and rescue teams continue searching overnight after the coast guard says up to five people may still be missing following a storm that capsized sailboats in alabama. two bodies have been recovered. the boats were competing saturday in a regatta near mobile bay. both ships and planes are being used in the search. and alex rodriguez is inching closer to baseball history. the new york yankees slugger cracked his 659th career home run last night against the visiting new york mets. the 39-year-old a-rod added another hot and three runs batted in during the 6-4 subway series victory. he's now just one long ball away from tying willie mays for fourth on baseball's all-time list. and those are your top headlines. tom: very good. let's look to "surveillance" this morning. in this hour, can greece make the deadlines?
spreads elevated, up eight basis points on the greece german 10-year. front and center going to the may 6 i.m.f. check that is requested, our brendan greeley is in washington at a special event diving deeper into your bridges and roads and on america's crumbling infrastructure. and then a very important conversation this is research that sticks out. we get in like 4,000 research reports a day and this one was like, whoa very cool. is this is wonderful. really looking forward to that this morning. deutsche bank? olivia: coming out of europe, deutsche bank has spent more than $7.5 billion on litigation in the last three years. tom: yeah, but that's not the story. olivia: the latest fine was $2.5 billion. that came on thursday after the company was fined for
eliminating bench marks. now this morning, deutsche bank has just announced a major turnaround. we have live pictures that we'll show you, plus an interview that we will bring you at about 7:10 a.m. this morning. tom, you remember back in 2012, in came the two new c.e.o.'s. they were going to rule together. since then, since that poison in 2012, deutsche bank has been the worst performing global investment. tom: it is by a mile. what i want to know is the sell side, even with these announcements today. olivia: shares are off the most since october. my big takeway, in 2012, jain and fischer said we're going hit 12% by 2015. right now, it's about -- it was about 3.1%. today they crapped that. they only have 10%. meanwhile, jamie dimon still
looking at 15%. tom: let's look at the charts of this train wreck, and i mean that with with with collegiality. there's a move. there's no other bank with this track record. that's all there is to it. i mean there's no other way to put it. this has been a massive fail. you really wonder about the two-tier management structure. i'm sure we'll ask jain about that. but i also wonder about the u.s. platform. coming out of alex brown a million years ago, and you wonder as they talk about 200 branches leaving countries, what they're going to do within the united states as well. olivia: clearly it's a step away, and they are planning to take post bank public and spin that off. i wonder why now. because actually, if you look at the result they just posted out, near record revenue.
tom: what i would go to is even with these announcements today, i'm getting muted response. i mean, just there's no other way to put it. olivia: there you have it. don't forget, you can catch deutsche bank's c.e.o. right here on "surveillance" coming up in the 7:00 hour. you do not want to miss hans nichols' interview with him. we are streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. ♪
must lynn. it is prosecute president obama. we put together the five best zingers from this weekend's white house correspondents dinner. take a listen to this. president obama: i feel more loose and relaxed than ever. those joe biden shoulder massages, they're like magic. and it is no wonder the people keep pointing out how the president -- the presidency has aged me. i look so old, john boehner has already invited ming to speak at my funeral. the koch brothers think they need to spend a billion dollars to get folks to like one of these people. got to hurt their feelings a little bit. look i know i've raise ad lot of money too, but in all fairness, my middle name is hussein. what's their excuse? i like bert. apparently some folks really want to see a pot-smoking socialist in the white house. we could get a third obama term
after all. after the midterm elections, my advisors asked me, do you have a bucket list? and i said, well i have something that rhymes with bucket list. [laughter] tom: do you have the anger guy? olivia: normally we're playing highlights from the comedian. president obama clearly seems very comfortable in this role. tom: i've seen him four or five times, and he's not faking it. and george bush, i might point out, is also very very funny. but some of them are just getting through it, not this president. olivia: no, i thought the line was particularly funny about the third term of a pot-smoking socialist. tom: yes, chuck todd mentioned it this would be -- in our conversation with him on "bloomberg surveillance" on friday, mr. todd and "meet the
press," is he a little more relaxed as he gets down to the end of the second administration. olivia: it was cool we had bloomberg politics there. check the whole thing out. a lot of fun on saturday night down in d.c. as we head to the break, time to ask our twitter question of the day. has apple's ipad peaked? apple earnings out after the bell today. we'd love to hear what you think. ipad sales have trailed estimates, shrinking the past four quarters. are we at peak ipad? we want to know. please send us your thoughts ♪
olivia: authorities now say that 3600 people were killed in nepal's earthquake on saturday and 5,000 others were hurt. both numbers are expected to rise much the quake measured 7.8 on the richter scale and turned countless buildings into you believe. thousands of people could be trapped and millions more homeless. one aid worker talked to a survivor from a remote village. >> i spoke to a man on one of the first helicopter evacuation missions. he deprame a village where they have 1,100 households. he said when the earthquake struck, it was like a volcanic explosion. there were rocks going everywhere, and he estimates that 90% of the houses in these villages were completely decimated. olivia: take a look and listen closely to this video from mount everest right when the earthquake hit.
olivia: hundreds were on the mountain at that time, and one of them were killed. one of them was a google executives. hell cop hers have now evacuated almost all of the 188 climbers who had been stuck on the mountain. and deutsche bank has unveiled its plans for a strategic overall and cost cuts this morning. germany's largest lender is planning to reduce annual costs by an additional $3.8 billion. deutsche bank will shrink its securities business, close up to 200 branches, and reduce its footprint overseas. the bank has been trying to boost profits. yesterday deutsche bank said that legal costs cut first quarter earnings in half. and the acting c.e.o. of the clinton foundation has admitted to making some mistakes when it comes to donations. he said that on tax forms, some grant forms for foreign governments were mistakenly combined with other donations. her statement came not long after the author of a new book on the foundation called for an investigation t. has to do with the fund's activities while
clinton was secretary of state. the author says there's been a pattern in which the foundation received donations, and then the u.s. made favorable decisions in regard to those countries. >> when you have an issue of flow of found political candidates whether that's to campaigns, whether that's to private foundations whether that's to their spouse, is there evidence of a pattern of favorable decisions being made for those individuals? i think the point that we make in the book is that there's a troubling pattern. there are dozens of examples of that occurring. olivia: hillary clinton's campaign has denied any wrongdoing. and it used to be one of the nation's largest for praft schools. now corinthian college has shut down its last 28 schools. corinthian collapsed last summer after the federal government cut off access in student aid. there were allegations that corinthian falsified grade attendance, and job placement rates. it received $1.4 billion in
federal student aid. tom: finally, watch out, america. here comes the avengers sequel. "the avengers: age of ultron" breaks in thursday night. it's already taken in more than $200 million overeast. it opened better than the other "avengers" did. we'll see if can keep up with "furious 7," another one olivia and i have not seen. i'm guessing francine lacqua hasn't seen it as well. greece has brokered something in the vicinity of that. fran keen lacqua is looking at 18 things this morning, including nepal, and also decide wlg to see "the avengers." right now, we look at the turmoil known as greece. francine greece spreads widen out this morning. we see a little bit of action. are we waiting one week or can we actually see something this week? francine: greece needs the
avengers to rescue it, i think that's what you're getting at, tom. you look at what happened over the weekend, look, there's a clear money problem. we'll see this week whether the local authorities will obey the central government and bring the money that they have in order for the greek government to be able to pay pensions and wainls. but they are running out of money. we've been saying it for a while. i don't know if it's this week or next week, because in the next couple of weeks, first of all, we don't know how much greece has money in terms of money left, so what's certain is that the greek finance minister doesn't get along with european counterparts. we saw the battle, which now seems to be a little bit personal, and that's what is really worrying investors. tom: let's get to further acrimony. i think a lot of people are not up to speed with the grandson of mr. porsche. we say porsche you say porsche, but what we can see is piech out the door. olivia: at v.w. a game of
thrones. tom: this is not the lannisterss, but it's close. help us with the back story of a struggling v.w. francine: this is an amazing story. just a reminder, ford and some of your big carmakers make around 3.7 million units a year. this is a company that makes 10 million. so it's close to surpassing toyota as the biggest carmaker in terms of units provided. this is a chairman that has picked battles at the past, done a fairly good job. he's picked battles in the past, which he's won. and this time he lost, which is why he's had to step down. what this means, though, is that a lot of investors are saying this opens the door to v.w. volkswagen of now entering the u.s. market in a more aggressive way, actually making cars that the u.s. market will buy. margins are not great, but it's actually selling cars, not so in the u.s., because you don't like those cars. olivia: oh we like the
porsches. tell us about this hsbc story going on this morning. shares up by about 5%. we heard on friday that the bank was considering relocating headquarters to hong kong. what's new over the weekend? olivia: we have reports that didn't talk about their sources, but these reports suggest that hsbc will actually spin off the retail unit and that led to shares getting some 3% to 4%. this is as hsbc is also trying to find a new home. we call a review of its headquarters but it is trying to find possibly a new home, if it looks at taxes and how much it has in various jurisdictions. over the weekend, hong kong said they would open hsbc with open arms. olivia: thank you very much francine, joining from us london. tom: what kind of car do asians want to drive? i mean, you would think a v.w. would be built for asia, but
that's not the case, is it? guest: they like to drive expensive, european and japanese cars, yeah. not really american cars. tom: we're going to talk about this later in the hoyer, but there's a huge desire to drive the big rig in asia, isn't there? guest: yeah, which is strange, because if you look at the roads, they're very narrow. but people have massive, humongous cars. tom: there's literally eight audis wrapped around the hotel. they're all huge. they're not an audi, they're the biggest audi. olivia: rolls royce makes a bigger one for mainly in china. tom: exactly. we'll speak with sir martin in our next hour, always interesting on his united kingdom elections. sir martin also on, don't count newspapers out quite yet. i like that too. we'll see in our next hour. also, we go to new delhi as we try to go to kathmandu. stay with us.
brendan: it is not what you think, tom. i'm actually the least important journalist in america. when everybody was flying out of washington, d.c., yesterday, i was actually flying in. in fact, i met some of our staff leaving the event as i got to the ronald reagan airport. but i am here in town today. i have a conversation today with secretary of the treasury, jack lew, and secretary of transportation, anthony fox, to talk about infrastructure, and that is the subject of today's single best chart. the highway trust fund is running out of money. outlay have exceeded revenues by more than $52 billion. they are projected to exceed even further over the 2015-2024 period. so, tom, there's a lot of red there. i'm going ask you a pop quiz. what was the best thing that happened to you in 1993? tom: 1993, i -- i -- i -- i met someone. i remember that year. i met someone, actually. brendan: i met someone too.
it was the year i started college, and also, it was the last time they raised the gas tax, $2.8 of a gallon. it has not been raised since then. what we're really looking at in the highway trust fund is something that is unsustainable, because it's not pegged to a quotient and never has been. tom: well, i like the title, eisenhower's roads, which goes back to the courage the democrats and republicans had in the 1950's within your bloomberg government reporting, is there any courage in washington in 2015? brendan: i don't know if i want to cast apersians, but i look at some congressional testimony from last week on this very subject, and i found an amazing concordance. both the afcio and the chamber of commerce agree the best way to fix the highway fund is raise the gas tax. you have unbelievable unanimity on this, except nobody is willing on capitol hill or the white house to own a tax increase. so you have something that
makes sense economically. i mean, basically, you want people paying for the highway who use it. that's why the gas tax makes absolute sense, and that is exactly what we are right now not planning on doing. olivia: anybody who has arrived in new york at john f. kennedy airport and taken the road through the midtown tunnel it's probably a pretty good idea why the highway infrastructure fund matters. but why is it so crucial right now? brendan: because it's become apparent we are completely running out of money. it's not just underfunded in july, it is going to basically run out of money, july of this year. we had a short-term fix, and this is the problem with infrastructure in general. we have a law that funded it for two years, but not indefinitely. the real problem now is the administration is suggesting we pay for six years of funding based on, you know taxes from companies repatriating their earnings in the united states. i know that's something we talk
about all the time on "surveillance," so that's a nice idea. i'd like for that to happen. but what contractors and states really need is a long-term fix so they can do long-term planning. olivia: i read some criticism of the highway infrastructure fund and what opponents say is not all the money in the fund actually goes to fixing the roads. brendan: not all the money in the fund goes to fixing the roads. also, for the last 10 years, i need to check that, we've been taking money out of the general fund and putting it into the highway fund. gerning that's one of the reasons, you pointed right to it why it's taken so long to get this bill reauthorized. we're not just having a fight over highways, it's a fight over light rail, over rural bus service. this funds a lot more than just highways. olivia: brendan, thank you so much looking forward to hearing more from you later in the show, and also looking forward to hearing about your interview with jack lew later on in the morning. all right, number three, in baltimore, hundreds of protesters stand off with police during a freddie gray
march. stores were loot and had police vehicles were smashed. police arrested 35 people, six officers received minor injuries. freddie gray was arrested 15 days ago for possessing a knife. he later died due to spinal injuries. our second photo of the day, in pude apest, people hold up their bikes to protest for better infrastructure. cyclists in budapest increased 11-fold in the past 20 years. it's been promoted as a cheaper alternative to public transportation. tom: do you do the city bike thing? olivia: i do. i did the barclays bikes more in london. tom: did you feel safer in london than new york? the answer is way. olivia: yeah yeah, much safer. tom: it's dangerous.
olivia: also, those bikes are heavy. i'm not sure i could hold it like that. tom a barclays sbike like working. owe live why job, colin burns solved the rubik's cube, completed in just 5.25 seconds. how is that possible? tom: have you ever done this? i could never finish it. i feel better that you're here. ethan harris can do it in like three seconds. ethan is like, you know, this is a cheap economist. five seconds. olivia: would you ever do it? i'm useless. i just do it oh, oh. olivia: nice. still to come here on "bloomberg surveillance" -- from swiss watches to anti-aging products how boomable is this? we are streaming on your
they did it. whupped the passengers. go, rangers. let's right now go to our top headlines. olivia: i wore blue for the rangers. senator john mccain is stepping up his call for drones to be taken away from the c.i.a. he says the pentagon as much more qualified to run them. he repeated his stance after it became known that two hostages were killed. and families of u.s. hostages who pay ransom could soon be free of prosecution. a u.s. official says white house advisors are expected to recommend the change. a journalist and several other americans have been murdered by islamic state extremists. their families say they were warned by the u.s. not to pay or negotiate to free their loved ones. and starting today, everything chipotle serves is g.m.o.-free. tom keene is relieved. it is the first major national chain to drop genetically modified ingredients. two years ago chipotle was the
first to say which one contained g.m.o.'s. and those are your top headlines. tom: let's go to the next hour of "bloomberg surveillance." we will go to nepal, trying to go to kathmandu as the crisis continues. climbers are off everest this morning. that's the latest news. then we'll look at deutsche bank. our hans nichols in conversation with mr. jay. these are game-changing announcements. and then greece truly on life support. all this morning as well. i get in a million research reports. again, we protect the copyright of all of our guests. i'm particularly going to protect the copyright of bank of america lynch lunch's a.j. what is modern and what is the final outcome of capitalism? some would suggest a gathering of wealth, future income. forget about that. kapur writes on what rich
middle class and indeed the poor did with their money. they spend it on their vanity, from swiss watches to that first pair of sunglasses. we earned and spend absolutely terrific, fantastic report. what is the outcome of this for investors? what does it signal to investors? guest: any sector, any scene where you get earnings growth, people are willing to pay a premium for. for an investor, for the world as a whole global vanity capital stocks have been compounding about 2% for the last decade. tom: this is not gucci, it's much broader. guest: that's the thing. this is a market, which would make it the fourth biggest economy in the world. 90% of it is nonluxury stuff. you know, it's a lipstick. it's a pair of normal shoes. it's a hand bag. it doesn't have to be expensive. it's a hand cream. tom: reaching up the first
stick of lipstick. interesting. olivia: how do you play this? do you buy l'oreal shares? ajay: personal carry. they could be accessories. they could be expensive luxury products, which are growing more rapidly. so they're only 10% of the overall market, but they grow a lot faster. that might change going forward, so i actually prefer the middle market stuff. so leather shoes, hand bags cosmetics, nutrition healthcare leisure all this stuff doesn't have to be expensive. olivia: paying for chipotle without g.m.o.n. your note you write about signaling the rebellious consumption. what does that mean? ajay: in the old days, you could go to an ivy league university. if you see a mandarin in china, that's the way you showed off your importance. but not all of us can get into
those categories and so rebellious consumption i borrow it had from an author, is really you want to demonstrate your identity and individuality. it's like the james dean leather jacket, right? that's rebellious consumption. you show people who you are as an individual. tom: forget about vietnam. forget about the luxury of olivia sterns. we know that luxury. help me with the luxury 42 miles outside hanoi. tom: well, it's interesting. in the work we've done, except for latin america, we found that vanity capital products and services are growing much faster than nonvanity stuff. nonvanity stuff would probably be pet care or lawn furniture not really buying vanity. it's really growing at a much faster clip. the vanity capital is about 11% compounded versus overall global earnings growth of about 3% or 4%.
and it's ringing. tom: did m&a come into this? it didn't work out that well. ajay: well this is very interesting, because in china, a lot of multinationals are not doing as well as they might be because the local competitors are pretty fierce, and there is local brand loyalty. tom: and they have local knowledge. ajay: local knowledge and networks. i think in chain ark the market is more local brand-friendly. india is a mixture. in india multinationals have been around forever, so leaver colgate, but you also have very interesting local companies. olivia: we're talking about aspiration. are you saying the local environment is better for manufacturerers? i mean the conventional wisdom is always that the developing nation consumers still crave the luxury italian brand. ajay: they do crave it, but as we know, there's a huge story in china that's not spreading
to brazil, to india. tom: how come you always go to guchesexee that? she's such a slave for luxury. olivia: i never go to ferrigamo. ajay: i think a lot of the chinese are going to japan now. the tourism is over 100 million. they used to go to europe. that's also getting eased. they've had to buy their luxury outside of china. olivia jarks fine, but they're still buying luxury. tom: terrific report. you can't make money in stock. colgate up 13.1% in the last 20 years. let's look at a per right now on foreign exchange. yen in nicely a 11933 on japanese yen. ruble a little weaker as well. in our next hour, hans nichols in conversation with the bank c.e.o. of the moment, anshu jain of deutsche bank. this as they announce a
ver is our evacuated but some are stranded. deutsche bank will slash costs closing branches in a tent countries. hans nichols speaks on "bloomberg surveillance." the death and resurrection of print and newspapers. good morning everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from new york. i'm tom keene joining me is olivia sterns. let's get to the top headlines. olivia: crews are racing against time to dig through rubble to find survivors from the earthquake that killed at least 30 600 people. it relief agencies warned that the next big problem may be disease caused by tainted water. the earthquake rated 7.8 on the
richter scale. >> conditions are extremely difficult to know how to get there. we do have teams in the area. it these are remote villages. olivia: it was frightening on mount everest. look at this video. 19 people were killed on everest. one of those killed was a google executive. helicopters evacuated almost all of the climbers who were stuck on the mountain. deutsche bank is making major
cost cuts to revive profits. they are reducing costs by $3.8 billion. they will shrink the securities business and cut back its ownership. they have been hurt by rising legal costs. they paid $2.5 billion for rigging interest rates. those responsible are no longer with the bank. >> we take the findings of our regulators seriously. we have terminated everyone who was directly involved with the manipulation itself. olivia: deutsche bank have posted the worst performance among local investment bank peers. the trial begins in colorado for the movie theater massacre case. james holmes has pled not guilty by reason of insanity. he killed 12 people and injured 70. he was in the middle of a psychotic episode it, according
to his lawyers. the largest market for the iphone may be china. they may have sold 20 million iphones in china. that would be more than the u.s.. the design of the new phone has larger screens which is popular in asia. apple reports earnings after the closing bell. it's not even may 1. tom: he hit the ball into foul territory. gordon of the kansas city royals races over and dives jeter like into the crowd. he did not appear to get hurt like jeter. we should not be surprised. he is a four-time gold glove winner. for those of you on radio, you know what he did it years ago.
gordon did the same thing this year. we advance ever so slightly this morning in the euro. it has been a horrific weekend. in nepal and india and china serious mass destruction including cultural landmarks. the focus on the mountaineers many of them have been removed in the recent hours. in the kathmandu valley, they have aftershocks. india is spearheading the advance. how hard is it to get to nepal? i know it's 700 miles from new delhi. what do you do at the porter? >> under normal conditions, it's easy to get there. they share an open border so you can cross it freely.
flights go quite regularly. ever since the quake has struck getting into the capital has been very difficult. aftershocks kept shutting down the airport. tom: we all the what to do in the first few days. where do you perceive this effort will be a week from now or a month from now? >> at this point, they are only beginning to assess the damage. a week from now they will still be assessing what's happened outside the capital. the damage has been confined to kathmandu. they are sending helicopters to 40% of the district's believed to be affected. hopefully they will get power back within that timeframe and
if some water. it's going to be difficult. the infrastructure to begin with in the nation was very weak. olivia: this is an area prone to earthquakes. there have been other big earthquakes. i know you were there in nepal for one of those big earthquakes. how prepared was the government for this? >> it wasn't prepared at all. it does set atop a seismic zone it, it is not places like japan or l.a. where the buildings are built for these kinds of disasters. one of the reasons it has been so devastating in the capital is the buildings were thrown up without any kind of standards or permitting. older buildings were made with wooden walls. -- mug walls. they just crumbled when this came around. tom: thank you so much.
it was the definitive article in the hours as we heard of this earthquake. melissa ayers is with the council of foreign relations. she is the senior fellow for south asia. thank you so much for your research. i thought it was uncommonly valuable. what struck me is how everyone has left nepal over the past five or six years. there is an export of people. why is that? guest: nepal has a difficult economic situation. they have a difficult political situation. they have come out of an insurgency and in the last eight years, they have had seven prime ministers. there has been a real issue with governance and the economy has not done it what it can do to provide jobs for these people.
you do see a lot of young men and young women going to the gulf to work. tom: we saw modi visit for the first time last august. does that change the relationship? guest: i think that was a very successful visit and i think it put nepal on a better plane. they have a difficult relationship over the years. they see india as the big brother to the south. india is so much larger. that outreach helped bridge their ties. it seems to be moving very well. and is taking the lead on the international relief effort in nepal. olivia: it does appear that india is taking the lead sending helicopters. china is involved. is there a competition to bring relief? guest: i would certainly say
there is a geopolitical competition writ large. at this moment of crisis and trying to help people, to rescue those who are buried and provide medical services to those who have been rescued, i would not call this a competition at the moment. tom: you open it your article with the emotion of your earthquake walk of a few years ago. describe that to us please. guest: nepal has been aware of the challenges that it faces the seismic vulnerability of being perched between these two massive tectonic plates. the fact of this rapid urban growth in it kathmandu itself and people have been focused on this challenge of thinking about preparedness for a big
earthquake destined to happen in the valley they have focused on building zen full her ability. tom: thank you so much for your research. i will put that on social media. she is with the council on foreign relations. at the bottom of the hour, we will bring you a conversation with deutsche bank. they look forward to significant cost-cutting, including their securities business. stay with us from new york city. "bloomberg surveillance." good morning.
operations. i have sent notes to them on saturday. i got to back. one woman was at everest base camp and has not heard of since the earthquake. we will see how things pan out as we go through the next few days. tom: it's very sad news. you mention the google executive who was killed. i don't think people understand, the reach of advertising isn't just madison avenue. guest: a long time ago we have a big share of the indian market. we have a 50% share. our operations go back to the 1920's. tom: i thought you were going to say the war of 1814. guest: i would leave it to you
to bring that up. agencies were started by a british guy. olivia: how is your business doing? guest: in india, exceptionally well. you mention the political problems in nepal. we did an election campaign for modi. it was extremely successful. even before he took office things were starting to move. we are up doesn't -- double digits. olivia: the currency is pegged to the rupee. tom: it doesn't have the government problems of nepal. i don't pretend to understand. there are some real nuances here. guest: the indian economy the strongest by far. tom: sir martin on nepal.
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." olivia: the boston bomber will be back in court today. jurors must decide if he should be jailed for life or executed for his role in the boston marathon bombing. the process is expected to take three weeks. retail gas prices are at the highest price this year.
the average prices $2.57. that is up $.13 in the past few weeks. this is the highest price since december. it is still one dollar cheaper than it was a year ago. alex rodriguez is inching closer to baseball history. he cracked his 659th home run last night. the yankees took a subways series victory over the mets. he is one home run away from tying willie mays. those are your top headlines. tom: no. come on. i need red sox video in the next hour. the game of 90 days ago was $39 a barrel. the new parlor game is now that we have found a bottom.
he is certain the price of oil is difficult to predict. he is certain we are not looking at the micro in place in demand. does any of this have to do with the percolating demand pushing prices up? guest: i agree. the demand response is critical to forecasting prices. we think the market is underestimating the ability for the market to rally around lower prices. we have better demand numbers out of india and europe. these are sustainable numbers out of china. tom: you mentioned a bunch of years ago a small oil company in england bought two u.s. companies. it was widely criticized. guest: the second deal was criticized because it was a bridge too far. the oil price was $11 a barrel.
tom: where is oil in 20 years? guest: higher. we think it will just be higher by the end of the year. olivia: what did they get wrong? guest: i think this was centered around a bearish stance of inventory and the idea that there might be a gap tom:. could it still occur? guest: you bring up a great point, olivia. inventory's in the u.s. are still very high. the rate of inventory growth was near the top. right now, it's the rate of change of supply and demand. that's another key risk. i think there is a window to own energy up to june 30. that is the next deadline when
we start talking about this. tom: it's not that you are taking a shot, the idea that we could still see lower oil prices , hasn't evaporated? guest: i don't think it has evaporated. for us to pull out of this trough, the demand picture needs to sustain itself. olivia: that still holds true. it's the conclusion over the price. buy should we care? guest: the frack blog are the amount of drills it have been dug but aren't used. you should care because companies that have pushed the idea that we will wait for higher prices to get the most value out of our wells before we deliver the product, they will start to push that oil to market. tom: tell him where the oil companies'confidence will click
in. that is all he cares about, what his clients feel. guest: that is another key theme in the industry. i think mid-sixties is when you will see a change in psychology for company management. you bring up a great point. i think that is the call and higher prices. you need higher prices to sustain inventories. tom: how has big oil done? how has big oil done in this collapse? guest: i think they have done well. one of the things you can say is they held back at the top. that was a different than the last natural gas cycle. tom: can we still see carnage in the smaller oil companies? guest: it's hard to tell. a lot of the debt maturities we will run up against are in a
2017. when you really have to start paying principal back, that is still a couple of years away. tom: could we see $39 oil? guest: i don't think so. tom: it makes for a great headline. olivia: why was everybody wrong? the idea was they would price shale out of the market. guest: i think it's a testament to the ability to drive costs down and the actual breakeven costs per basin. they said it was $80, that's a lot lower. tom: thank you so much for the update. in our next section, a conversation with the co-ceo of deutsche bank. anshu jane will join us. he is the most beleaguered big
anybody else would have been out the door. the distinction is in the same time they were doing 9.8%. i will put this chart out later for those of you on bloomberg radio. olivia: that is what i picked up from a note i chris wheeler. it confirms that jpmorgan is the preeminent global investment bank. tom: what is it like in london? it's an enormous bank in london. olivia: they are going to be shrinking. they are going to shrink the investment bank. this is not about litigation, it's about regulation. in 2012, they said we are going to have a target of 10% by 2015. they downgraded that.
tom: deutsche bank's co-ceo have unveiled the strategic overhaul. hans nichols is in conversation with anshu jain. anshu jain: that is the pivotal question we have been asking ourselves for a while. there has been a lot about what the right ratio standards are. the european market circumstances are different and our assets are different. the business model is different. we came to the conclusion that 5% will be the global norm. all of our u.s. customers are in that range. you really have a starting point . deutsche bank has decided to target 5%. this will put us in with the top. hans: you expect them to
regulate 5%? anshu jain: when it comes to the mortgage industry, it sits on european balance sheets but it doesn't on other locations. there are some big differences. we made the decision that to compete as a leading global player, 5% is the norm. hans: you talked about intense change. you did not opt for the more radical option. anshu jain: if i told you i was going to do consolidate investing a billion dollars in technology transforming our operating model, you would have said that's a very ambitious plan. there was quite a lot of speculation that we would do something even grander or more radical. it comes down to the debate that my peers and i had on the
management board. we decided that the core identity was to be a leading global bank in germany. our clients are telling us they want to support that. it became a case of not altering the core dna and doing a lot of what the strategy is to allow us to survive and cover. hans: part of that is going to be 3.5 billion in euros. how many job losses and well -- where? anshu jain: we have said we will finish our program. we will cut 3.3 billion euros in cost. this will be a subdivision that will be spun off. hans: will it be geographic across the board? anshu jain: we will pursue the
strategy that we have unveiled today. we have launched a review of the operating model. have given ourselves 90 days. hans: does that mean less or more than 10,000 jobs lost? when you look at the investment bank and how it's going to look, will it be recognizable? anshu jain: it will. we will build on the core dna that we have. we are a leading cap market machine. what we do best is raised that inequity. -- debt and equity. you will see a stronger equity than we are today. you will see us considerably stronger in corporate finance than we are today. you will see a smaller fixed income. you will see us being more advisory.
the core franchise will not be that different. we are a leading investment bank today. we are protecting that position. hans: you still have some litigation challenges. anshu jain: it is very painful and the actions of a few have done damage to the franchise overall. hans: in times of your expectations? anshu jain: we hoped for a smaller number but that's not something we can control. hans: i want to know how you can relet a capital increase when we don't know what future litigation costs are going to be. anshu jain: in arson area analysis, we put in some very hefty assumptions for what can come. we are completely fined and we will be able to sustain and maintain our cap ratios. let meet and out that we operated a very solid quarter. hans: no capital increase
because of the litigation charges? you did acknowledge that you did not meet your last strategy goals. is this your last chance to get it right? anshu jain: we said lot was then the last three years. we caught course -- cut costs. we have instilled cultural change. the world changed significantly. regulation got tougher. growth was slower than we would've anticipated and we had lower interest rates. we had progress on many fronts a few are not where we would like to be. hans: how do you convince investors this is the last chance to get this right? anshu jain: we are on a very strong track.
we will deliver value to our shareholders. tom: wander over to the chart and then we will go to hans nichols. it's simple, the results are worse than i expected. over the last six years, -9% versus jamie dimon a positive 10%. hans nichols, they have to catch up. let's start with why first. where the in this mess? hans: they have had some leverage issues. they need to increase liquidity. they have more capital and they have been talking about having greater profitability and return on equity. they never reached 12%. the new goal is 10%. they have a long way to go. tom: are they trying to be more of a swiss bank this morning? hans: they want to be swiss bank
on private wealth management. they want to have a big investment bank. they want to keep some of the retail. they will trim the number of offices from 730 down to 530. they want to keep that for deposits so they can run a healthy investment bank. they will have less on commodities and fixed income and more on servicing corporate needs. they will still have an investment bank. the investment bank will look different. olivia: that is what we heard from jamie dimon. my question is about timing very why now? the investment did it well. this would have been a record. every revenue if you take out the fines? hans: i think this was eventually completed they have talked about this. they finally completed it.
i think it's interesting when he said they had a healthy debate with their supervisory board. this was a real robust debate. i asked if they went with the less drastic or big approach. they are hyping off 200 billion and access -- assets. you were here when they bought it. that's a huge reversal for them exiting that resell -- retail sector. olivia: it's like a merry-go-round. it's the gift that keeps on giving. what is post bank? hans: it's a german retail operation. i'm not sure on their total deposit numbers. they have enough to get rid of 200 billion. they are staying in others. one thing, that 5% leverage
where should we start? olivia: u.k. elections. guest: if you follow the odds we have real betting. they will make big gains. tom: this is not labor versus tories. it's a new catalyst. guest: we have had coalitions before. nothing is different at the end of the day. the two coalition governments are highly unusual. what we've got is the rise of the scottish national party
which paradoxically has made labor weaker. the conservatives are not doing as well as they thought they were going to do. the chancellor has done an extremely good job getting the economy growing. it's a little bit hard as to what's happening. olivia: my question is it's the fastest-growing g-7 economy. the response to the crisis turned out to be such success. why isn't cameron more popular? guest: people feel better. i think generally they don't feel is good. there is a big split between the southeast and the rest of the
country. you can see that in the populist votes. it's the same thing. when you look at it historically, unemployment is still high. tom: let's switch to greece. we had the mayor of greece. he was adamant that the people don't want to leave the euro. guest: the imf is at risk. from an overall point, if you go back to the comment about the british exit, if the conservatives control the government, there will be a referendum about whether the u.k. stays in or out. that is a far greater significance. tom: this is like episode three season four of game of thrones. olivia: what would an exit do? guest: greece is not a norm us
tom: good morning. let's get to the headlines. olivia: the overnight raids are the first since saudi officials said they would focus on negotiations and relief. families of u.s. hostages who paid ransom should be free of persecution. the change is expected. several americans have been murdered by islamic state extremists and families were warned not to pay on negotiate a free loved ones.
everything aaa serves is gm oh free starting today. they are the first to drop genetically modified ingredients. a were the first to indicate which ones contained them. those are your top headlines. tom: coming up on bloomberg television, look for deutsche bank here in hans nichols will discuss with anshu jain. i thought francine was great on the wagon. also, the time warner talks. this is interesting. newspapers are dead. that is the prevailing zeitgeist. this is something that martin would like to push against. he suggests there is great value among the angst.
guest: it depends and how you define newspapers. they are digital as well. tom: you get the wall street journal redo. guest: they are pulling the two together. we see statistical evidence that shows engagement by consumers when they read the old-fashioned newspapers like you read, you are more engaged and more likely to take notice of advertising. tom: the word engagement versus cap videos. eyeballs. guest: engagement -- for example , we see this with live television. people on it twitter -- people are more likely to tweet one another if they are watching live television. engagement and conversation
takes place between consumers when they are engaged with traditional media. tom: who is this? olivia: i don't know. tom: jennifer lawrence. i don't know if you handle dior. jennifer lawrence cells. she can't do that as well in digital. guest: she could, to be fair. we have seen a lot of data which shows consumers are spending more time online. we have seen engagement with traditional newspapers and the amount of time we spend. when you look at how consumers engage and how long they engage with that medium it something different. you have to balance the two. the young are changing. when they engage with digital
media digital newspapers, it's for long periods of time. olivia: i'm not sure. i would like to point out that on print ads, the majority are just pictures of good-looking women. you said the opposite thing a couple of years ago. guest: it's always a question. digital now is 36% for us. the other two thirds is traditional media. digital is moving and will move to at least half our business. it's about getting the balance right. you always overbalanced the other way. there is an article in the wall street journal last week about shifting money. did you see the balance? the costs as demand rises and
supply reacts the other way it creates a different pricing mechanism. olivia: there is a huge paradigm shift going on in the industry. they are moving to a model where they bill by time spent on a page. tom: what are the best practices here? who is hitting the ball out of the park? guest: i think murdoch on a global basis in terms of trying to wrestle with the digital challenges. the biggest issue is measurement. the measurement vehicles, that's why we have invested. nielsen is highly challenged in terms of the views on television. that is the big issue, how do you measure? second screen and third screen
is taking a large number of views and that is not in the numbers. we measure c plus three. olivia: has dvr destroyed the business? guest: that's why seven days is becoming more important. we need to get a better measurement. olivia: this is when we look at the stories chapin the day. tom: my agenda is nepal. we have two reporters in kathmandu. new delhi as well we will monitor this day by day. it is truly a tragedy. another item is the milken conference. michael milken is writing today about inequalities and unbalance in the workforce. we will talk with secretary donovan. we will speak to them at the
milken conference today. olivia: apple earnings are out after the bell. we could see that they sold more iphones in china for the first time over the u.s.. we are looking for 20 million iphone sales in china alone. one of the reason the nasdaq is back is the run that apple has had. we will look to see if ipad sales continued to fall. tom: there is no comparison. can they get to 200 billion in cash? it's amazing. you can extrapolated out. guest: when i was in chinese the xiaomi phone has a bigger screen. the screen size in china is bigger than the iphone 6 plus. olivia: we ask you what you
think. has the ipad peaked? there isn't much more you can do with it. tom: that goes to what xiaomi is doing and china. they are making an ipad that's a phone. will all these toys supplant television? guest: xiaomi has an over-the-top box as well. it's beautifully engineered. tom: are you a bull on cable television in the united states? i am. i minute. -- i am in it. guest: it will be entered in to see what happens with time warner cable. another bidder is coming for
that. we've got to stay out of that. there is one agency that is making it interesting. tom: let me bring it back to you, what are you focused on in europe? guest: in western europe? in western europe germany is very strong. spain is recovering rapidly. italy is starting to surge positively. france is the one major economy of the big five that hasn't really started to improve. by the time we get to that referendum, we will see. i think the continent will be better. tom: thank you so much for the wide range today. we leave you with futures up five. bloomberg can television --
a restructuring of jeremy's's biggest bank. why volkswagen might start kicking some but here in the u.s. we'll find out why. plus, fresh off the red carpet, mark is joining me in just a few moments. and housing is on the radar this week. pending home sales this week. one of the best-performing cities is none other than miami. we brought back the tanned tv star chris leavitt. first, major changes ahead. deutsche bank officials announced a long-range cost-cutting plan today. the company wants to save nearly $4 billion per year. the business will