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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  April 16, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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australia adds jobs in march and double the estimate. the surge was netflix booming. almost 5 billion in the first quarter two top 62 million. the stock soared to a record high. ahead of the open the markets are pretty much dead flat. the german 10 year yields approach zero and we go 10 basis points or nine basis points to record lows. crude is making a comeback and we will talk about that. >> let's check in how we are opening up in equity markets. we are looking at france up and the united kingdom. there is a surge yesterday and the data came in once again with production down and manufacturing on affection desk
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unexpectedly falling. people are trying to work out what this really means with the federal reserve rate hike. that could create all sorts of concerns. suddenly, the negative yields become less attractive only start to hear of the rate hike in the u.s.. at the moment the market goes back to december. we are opening flat at the moment. it is coming in flat in the eurozone. daimler is up 17% and it is following on where the night states is going. the euro is coming lower against the dollar. now it is back. not against the dollar. it is spiking and the reason why
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is jobs. we see double added to what is expected and the key moves have 37,000 with the unemployment rate dropping 6.1%. let's have a look at the bond market. the nine-year is getting close to negative yields and the 10 year, look, we're close to borrowing costs with 10 basis points at the moment. meanwhile, the united states has what happens when we talk of the rate hikes in the united states. we have our strategist saying that having non-rated corporate's searching for yields and scrambling before we see the uptick in the borrowing cost.
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let's have a look at some of the equity. we will get sales updates. you know the boom and the smirnov vodka. down she goes 2.5%. it is down 0.7% and, they fall. check this out, latin america hurting and europe is falling with the asia-pacific down 6%. they develop and they are up online and looking at less promotional activity. it is helping the retailers and, meanwhile, similar moves up 3% and they are selling
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particularly well in europe. we see unilever up first and that was after they talked down the numbers in january. relief is coming for unilever. >> thank you very much. we are four minutes into the session and the german bond market is fascinating. there is one tiny basis point left on the nine-year. i will let you know about that. i want to take you to greece. they said the debt burden is unsustainable and it will come as a surprise. meanwhile, it now carries the debt and wolfgang told bloomberg that the belt program will not be extended without
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concessions. >> the program was extended twice and runs through june 30. if it wants to avail itself, the solution needs to be found by june 30. >> the deadline is the 30 of june. >> let's get the angle from germany. hans nichols is in berlin. what can we take away from wolfgang and what he has to say. nothing has really changed. he is not offering concessions and greece is not blinking. >> you have seen the government all but destroyed the efforts and the improvements the previous government had started. here is the important thing about the interview, he is publicly contradicting the idea advocated by the finance minister that there can be a deal.
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he says it is a non-starter and there is more work to do. it brings us back to looking at the counter and when the big payments have to come. they are rolling out one billion in t-bills and we have a meeting with important actions happening. they will have to pay salary and there are big payments that will come due. we have is him publicly saying opposite things. the important thing is that they will not get it done. you want to see some cash and he needs to watch to see how markets react. there is a piece of optimism and the advisor close to the prime minister has the possibility of a referendum in greece. that kind of vote could allow
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him to establish some distance. the referendum is not structured in a way where you accept the new dell terms. the keeper is the democratic legitimacy that follows in this case. >> i thought it was interesting. there were blunt words to say about the greek government and he had things to say about his own government, as well as the >> is expressing concern germany could get too strong and the strength could erode the competitiveness. one way is to have a title -- a tighter fiscal unit. >> the problem is that europe is in a good economic situation and we have to make sure in this enormous dynamic of the world
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economy that we do not lose perspective with a decade and that is links to competitiveness. >> other finance ministers are in washington dc today. he has a separate event at the white house and will be there for the greek celebration. it is unclear if there will be a separate formal meeting. a number of times, you have the drive by and it seems like it is getting important enough. there could be a meeting between obama and him. >> will keep an eye on that. -- we will keep an eye on that. we are joined by the executive manager. great to have you with us. nothing has really changed. you want reform and i call them recessionary measures. jon: let's see what is going on.
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let's get the euro and stick it in another country. in the meantime, what's it to the germans, don't worry, trust us. we are greek. we will give them more money and cast them over. pain is being taken in a slow way. they have the money out of the bank. meanwhile, tax receipts are collapsing and the position is getting worse. it is a greek tragedy. >> their hopeful to pick up. there was a bid and, going forward it is chump change we're talking about this month
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and next month. how much money do these guys need for the summer? >> if you are a german, you look at the pain that portugal and ireland have gone through and they have seen a pickup. they are scratching the heads of germany and they are saying these people can do it. why can't the greeks question mark so, the greeks have to leave. and we have the new drop love. >> to you imagine a scenario where greece does a cyprus? >> may be -- maybe. you have revenue and finances
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are in better shape. jon: stay with us and we will bring it back to our world stop mario gets the early shock. netflix crushes estimates and investors are streaming and. the ceo and founder says he is ready for a break later on in the show.
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jon: welcome back we are live in the city of london and this is on the move. mario draghi was to detail the program and answer questions from the audience. as we know, it did not quite go that way. a couple of minutes into the conference, he was shouted at and showered with confetti and a protester repeatedly shouted to end the ecb dictatorship. let's bring and andy. i have never seen anything like it. >> i thought i understood what it was. it is a whole new thing. >> it is a great picture. the ecb vice president has a big
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smile on his face and he seems to find the whole thing thoroughly entertaining from the -- entertaining. you have this theater. there was a debate to buy. >> you talk about the german bond and the equity will be losing money and they set this thing up. the germans say, if we do, we do not want it to distort the markets and the ecb says, of course. this is a distorted market. the european bond market. >> they say they do not see any problems with scarcity. the ecb can't touch that's --
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this stuff. >> it would be great with their money. let's by the greek bonds. there is a scarcity thing. what they are trying to do is like this. we have quantitative easing and get the economy going with people confident and spending. the have a taper and you have the mortgage drive and the pay rise. inflation has collapsed and suddenly spending is picking up this morning and the retailers are seeing a bit of a boost with restaurant sales up 5-6%. that should feature in tax revenues and reduce deficits. you can see where they are going.
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so, we are sitting on profit. the europeans, because there are so many, can't make a decision and they are guaranteed to lose money. >> managing money for a number of years, would you be long on retail? is that a bet on the price of crude? >> i have been telling retailers that there will be a turnaround in the business and oil is beaten up. what is happening in the u.s. is tracking with a short-term nature 18 months from now. we see the oil price back to 70-80 dollars. the end of the world is coming.
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>> i'm fascinated by the moves in crude yesterday and europe seems a look at more comfortable with everything going on. the contagion doesn't matter. how much of the recovery is about the one-off stimulus with the price of oil and what does it mean six months out? >> the recovery in stock markets is down and you have people given money and they will put it into assets coming up. if you take the european stocks up already, you need it to pick up and will the lower oil price feed through? >> most people are happy with that. >> should it be sure?
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these yields start moving back aggressively. we get a rebound in the price of oil. >> we see it fighting the fed and -- >> frustrated. >> going forward, the european equities are straightforward and for the rest of the year, it is a holiday. >> last year, we had a fantastic quarter and we have had a great fourth quarter. we saw that unilever up and
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topline growth. jon: the next phase of this is higher. up next, you are about to see the movie trailer for vladimir putin and it is not like. we'll talk about the stuff that matters later in crude after the break.
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jon: welcome back live from the city of london. we are coming off of the all time a high and the frankfurt is lower. we will get to that now. vladimir putin is gearing up for the annual colin showed today. the russian currency is the best performing in the world. the snapback is what they really rely on an ryan chilcote joins us with more now. a couple of reasons to be happier today? >> brent is up and people are
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concerned about the boom that we have seen major trail off and that sends the ruble strength the aunt and up this year. last year, the worst performing. the real situation is things like inflation and it is close to 17%. that is the highest it has been. you think about the first eight years of his rule and gdp rose. you have incomes on the decline. a lot of people will want to talk about the ruble and the general state of the economy.
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you look at the surveys and that is what they are concerned about. they will talk about it about policy. >> the expertise of russia right now, this is not any other country. we know about the high approval rating. >> it still stands. even if people do not like vladimir putin, they like his foreign-policy and it is all about the rise of russia in the trailer. it is about people showing up and standing up for the interest to defeat the enemy. this is patriotic and there is concerns about where the show down with the west is going. it all plays well. the real issue is the economy and there he is without his
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shirt. they are fascinated with him and he goes long in these conversations. his record was almost five hours last year and he took almost any question to assert that he is the alpha male. >> a lot of people love this guy for how much he gets paid. it is quite remarkable. >> so, the russian officials have to declare incomes and it is part of the government effort to show they are not corrupt. officially, mehe is taking a 10% pay cut. one was the last time you saw him pull out his wallet? he has everything he wants. it plays well with the economy. it helps.
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ryan, thank you very much. we'll head over where manus cranny is with the wealth management . join us after the break.
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jonathan: welcome back. we are 30 minutes into the trading session in europe. i want to go to the bond market's giving it german sovereign debt really making some headlines. you can see the 2, 3, 4, you can't touch this. the ecb can't buy this stuff. they've got a threshold of -0.2%. the two-year -2.8% -- -0.28%. will there be enough eligible german securities as the year progresses? everybody looking at the german 10-year with a yield
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of 0.94%. the countdown to zero. let's take it to the equity market. record highs on the ftse 100 yesterday. we are coming back a little bit. losses session lows over on the dax. down by almost 100 points this morning. some ugly misses out there. let's get to someone who is not ugly, caroline hyde. caroline: you big flatterer. lafarge finally the merger might be getting the a-ok. up 4.3% on the hope that will get through. remember, holcim and lafarge coming together to make the biggest cement maker in the world. one of the key shareholder doesn't like the deal. that is euro cement, the number two shell holder -- shareholder of holcim.
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they might approve, so says euro cement. analysts saying euro cement is a linchpin when it comes to this deal. a yes vote will basically mean the deal is sealed. the statement is likely to say that the probability is, this is now more likely to get through. lafarge leads the charge. unilever, nice boost to the stock price this morning. record high on the u.k. traded stock. looking at amsterdam unilever that is at the highest since 1998. sales suddenly starting to look much better. they are saying the tailwinds are looking better than the headwinds. it seems they are turning a corner. we have seen it dragged down in emerging markets. it seems that what they've done in europe, they are managing to turn around their sales. growth has accelerated since the fourth quarter. not so good for diageo.
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this is the ugly miss you are talking about. off by 3%. diageo makes guinness, if you like a pint. vodka, smirnoff is its brand. as well as sirocco vodka. not enough to help offset some of the other big misses we saw. we saw it deteriorate in latin america. africa, we are seeing a jewel in the crown. but asia down 6%. asia off by 1.3%. only eking out growth in the u.s. and africa. diageo having a pretty poor quarter. they say it is tough in emerging markets, and consumer weakness in the developed market. jonathan: thank you, caroline. diageo one of the big losers on the ftse 100. in the bond market, another headline. check out the 30-year. 0.5%, we go below that.
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if you've got a lot of money, where on earth do you put it best and mark -- where do you put it,? the ubs wealth management summit is underway in switzerland. what is on the mind of the wealth managers? i imagine one of the things they are worried about is this environment of low yields. manus cranny is standing by with a guest. manus: thanks for that. with me here, there's going to be $11 billion represented. $2 trillion of that belongs to the house of ubs wealth management. we have the president of ubs wealth management. great to have you with me. great markets in the equity markets in asia. the big focus for you guys. have they all joined in in asia? >> they are joining in. a lot of people did miss the rally.
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all around the globe, whenever i see clients, the first question is, how can you help me protect my wealth. today, people are worried about valuations. manus: i know what your schedule is the next 24 hours. what do you think is at the top of the agenda? on the global basis, do they talk about greece, the u.k.? what is the biggest risk factor in those conversations? >> in q1, we saw, you could call it crisis. we had the situation in the middle east, syria, the iran debate, even in switzerland, the removal of the peg. of course if you are in europe, people talk about greece. they look to the u.k. what government will we have? that depends from market to market. a lot of investors -- [indiscernible] if you go to china, it is about
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the slowdown of china. if you go to the u.s., it is about the u.s. it is all about that versification. it is about having an investment strategy and implementing that. manus: i caught up with one of your ci go's -- cio's and he said clients need to come to the dark side, believe in risk. is 2015 that year, or another year of doubt? >> of course, central banks play an absolute key role. you see that in europe, in the u.s., where the debate is about the rate hike. in aggregate, there's five times more money in the system. we asked, what does that mean? it has driven the markets up. it is stimulus. there's a lot of things ongoing where people ask what does that tell us.
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the need has never been bigger. manus: let's talk about the business. there's $11 trillion between a lot of the guys and girls that you talk to. blackrock, pimco, they are going to be here. does that sides and that scale give you an edge when it comes to attracting new business? >> absolutely. we see the money move. we know what our clients are doing. we know what they are concerned with. second we can team up with the very best, the smartest people around the globe, and all sit in one room and be the fiduciary of our clients money. we basically come up with an investment strategy that we implement around the globe. we have presence in every market. we have hundreds of researchers. we team up with the investment bank. this is a full-fledged way of
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how to manage money in a complex world. manus: what are the other great debates? the valuation of ubs is quite high. the expectation is high on your shoulders. to grow that business is julius baer talking to credit suisse? to stay at the ubs family, when you look around the globe, what is the benchmark? is in organic growth or acquisitions? >> it is truly organic growth. the underlying performance measurement is, we want 3% to 5% , roughly two times global growth. 40% of my asset pool is coming off that. it is accelerated. i want to operate that effectively. the cost income of around 50%. as long as we can do that the economics worth in our favor. we look at any opportunity in the market. if i look at the valuation, they
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are very expensive. maybe somebody will pay the premium. not me. manus: a new challenge. just on that note, the press reports from australia can you confirm or deny? >> it is very obvious if you run a global business that that is part of an ongoing process. you have businesses that perform well and businesses that struggle. we are reviewing our business in australia. manus: technology. tell me this. the challenge is the younger millionaire versus the older. it is voice and human interaction. what are you doing, and is that the biggest new thing for business? >> it is already my biggest cost. i spent hundreds of millions in technology. we didn't start technology today. this is a multi-year program already. when i think about digital, there's three levels i would highlight.
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any technology firm needs a mainframe. we need a backbone where you can operate the bank. a lot of people don't realize what that means, to access every security in every market 24/7. this needs to be complemented with all of the digital. this is the way we have to go. we have award-winning applications already in place. we spend millions and millions every year. of course we watch what they are doing. so far, we haven't seen somebody really taking off. often, if you think about wealthy individuals, they like all of these platforms. once you have to send your money to a platform, you want it to be safe. that space isn't yet there. manus: we talk about that trust issue. if you think about apple and
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facebook, they are nowhere near the same brand pool as you, but if you see a real inspired brand, do you discuss it with sergio and the rest of the team and go this is something we need to keep an eye on? >> absolutely. we look at any investment opportunity. we talk to the venture capitalist firms who are invested in it. that is a regular, constant dialogue. of course that is something where we debate on what is the best way to embrace it, rather than to be afraid. manus: thank you so much. we didn't get to philanthropy, but we will later. thank you for taking the time to talk to us. enjoy the day. i'm sure it will be a spirited debate. stay with me there. that is it from the top of the conference center. we will review what he had to say there. there is a challenge for you.
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ubs do their own thing. they don't necessarily pay top dollar for valuations. back to you in london. jonathan: sounds like there's only one man that needs to behave himself and that is you. the ftse 100 coming off an all-time high. you've got losses on the periphery. here on the dax we are off by 0.75%. in germany, it is the bond market. yields on the 10-year, record low. on the 30-year, we drop south of 0.5%. 49 basis points, that is your yield. remarkable stuff. i've got one stock to look at. netflix surging in after hours up by over 11%. more subscribers, investors streaming into the business. ♪
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jonathan: let's bring you up to speed with the top stories in bloomberg. unemployment in ostrow you dropped to six -- in australia dropped to 6.1%. the australian dollar surged on the news. u.s. treasury secretary jack lew says the american economy can't be the only one driving global growth. he commented on the strength of the u.s. dollar. >> if you look at the u.s. economy, the relative strength
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compared to other economies around the world, it explains what the currency valuations are. it is coming from our strength and less strong economies elsewhere. i'm focusing on the need for other economies to be stronger. jonathan: jack lew will be focusing on one economy that needs to get a lot stronger tomorrow when he will meet with greek finance minister yanis varoufakis. america now owes more money to japan than it does to china. new data shows japan has become the biggest foreign creditor of the u.s., holding just over $1.24 trillion of debt. the u.s. still has the biggest holding of treasuries worldwide. now to one of the big top stories. corporate news. netflix shares surging after hours to a new all-time high after the company reported first-quarter earnings that crushed expectations. the company's value will exceed
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that of cbs. caroline hyde has the details. caroline: check this out. over the course of a year this is the number you want. 43%. this is how much it has risen in market value. netflix, if it holds on to that surge after hours, will be worth $32 billion. that will be more than rival media company cbs which is worth about $30 billion. less tv, more about online streaming. it is all about subscriptions. they now have 62 million subscribers worldwide. they added 2.6 million internationally. they now have almost 21 million subscribers internationally. u.s., they added 2.3 million. there is much more to go in terms of international growth. 20 million, just one third of their overall numbers. this is where they can ramp up.
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australia, new zealand, japan, that is where they are looking to open for the first time in asia. we are looking to offer worldwide by the end of 2016. we don't know if that includes china as yet. ubs say this number could become $87 million outside the u.s. -- 87 million outside the u.s. by 2020. we are expecting slightly slower additions. remember, strength of the u.s. dollar is hitting their profit slightly when it comes to internationally. their income halved to $24 million. net income was down just 10% as they invested. this is where the focus is original programming. they are adding not only to "house of cards," they've got other. they've got "bloodlines" and new programs they are bringing out.
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they are paying 30% more in terms of content, close to $10 billion. also "daredevil" -- interesting. drawing in new subscribers and rolling out to japan later this year. australia, new zealand as well. can they make that 87 million subscribers outside of the u.s. by 2020? back to you. jonathan: that is the big challenge. thank you very much. netflix flying high diageo, not so much. not jesse aji go -- not just diageo, but sab miller as well. diageo underperformed across all regions. matthew boyd has been a very busy man this morning. start with this miss at diageo. matthew: it is not pretty. it hasn't been for diageo for quite some time. the mess was across the board.
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north america, their biggest unit, had a slight improvement in the quarter, but you are seeing declines in europe, in asia, with the crackdown on giftgiving. latin america, caribbean even. huge drop of around 10%. it is not looking good for diageo. the company told us to expect that this year won't be a great one, but it is turning out worse than we thought. jonathan: when you look at this country -- this company, guinness, north america, this is the guy that used to run those businesses. what is the problem right now? matthew: guinness has been a problem for some time. more people drink guinness in nigeria than they do in ireland. the africa business is huge for diageo. that has improved after some trouble sometimes. guinness is trying to shoehorn its way into the craft beer
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movement. craft beer is massive in the u.s. right now. it just hit 20% of the sector by value. guinness is seen not really as a craft beer. i love to drink it, but not enough americans like drinking guinness. the other issue is smirnoff vodka. they introduced way too many flavors. they are now having some success with flavored whiskeys. that is great. but you can do a lot less with flavors in whiskey than vodka. vodka is like a blank slate. whiskey, a little different. jonathan: diageo going south sab miller going north. matthew: sab miller, mildly positive. after two consecutive quarters of declines, we have a 2% increase. africa, a big reason for that. also, china. china had really hurt them last year.
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seeing a rebound there is good news for sab miller. the u.s. not looking very good either. jonathan: north america, they need to drink more guinness. thank you, matthew boyle. up next, michael spencer is considering his own grexit. what do i mean by that? ♪
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>> there are circumstances where
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if we felt it was a long-term interest of our shareholders and employees to move our headquarters, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. jonathan: that's the message from the icap ceo and founder, michael spencer. he said a labor win would be a harbor story. labor released the following response, it is hardly surprising that someone who was until very recently the treasurer of the tory party is backing the tories in an election campaign. let's bring in guy johnson. surprised? guy: not really. the fact that he talked about there being a possibility that he would take icap to new york -- jonathan: relocating is a drastic measure. guy: it is. but you have a fiduciary duty to those who own the company saying we need to examine this as a possibility. jonathan: going forward, big
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part of the show. what else, putin? guy: putin is taking calls today. i think it is quite well choreographed. not sure that if you are i were to ring up, or even ryan chilcote, i'm not sure we would get through. jonathan: disappointed by the trailer? guy: last year's was epic. jonathan: were you disappointed by the ecb press conference yesterday? guy: the fact that there was no obvious change in monetary policy coming the fact that draghi didn't say anything about greece, or the fact that someone jumped on the table? jonathan: guy johnson coming up on "the pulse" very shortly. as we head to the break, i'm looking at german bond markets. the 10-year yield, i know it is not a one-way bet, but seemingly approaching zero. the 30-year, this is really
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interesting. a yield below 0.5%. quite remarkable stuff. if you want to talk about it, i'm on twitter. ♪
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guy: no deal and wolfgang tells bloomberg there will be no new money for greece at the meeting. jack lew warns europe that a greg's it could have -- a gre could have consequencesxit. answers called on from local citizens.


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