tv Counting the Cost 2018 Ep 21 Al Jazeera May 28, 2018 7:32pm-8:01pm +03
they will continue fighting rebels the spite u.s. warnings against a possible offensive and their profits the southern region is mostly controlled by opposition groups and is close to the volatile area of the israeli occupied golan heights india is ramping up efforts to trace the origin of a rare virus that's killed at least fourteen people the nipah virus which can cause food like symptoms and brain damage emerged in the southern state of carolina earlier this month it has a seventy five percent mortality rate and there is no known vaccine. but those are the headlines i'm going to have more news for you in just under half an hour stay with us coming up next on al-jazeera it's counting the cost thanks for watching.
and i'm hasn't seeker this is counting the cost on urgency to your weekly look at the world of business and economics i believe that this is a tremendous setback for north korea and indeed a setback for the world let's call the whole thing off how investors are reacting to the collapse of the trump kim summit in singapore. out of love with europe why it's really is the latest country to push back against brussels plus edging higher we look at the pressures on black gold. it would have been the first time a sitting u.s. president met a north korean leader but it wasn't meant to be at least for now donald trump has pulled out of the landmark summit which had been set for june twelfth
a move the pyongyang has called extremely regrettable trump's announcement in the form of a breakup letter came just after north korea said it had blown up its only nuclear test site in a goodwill gesture to reduce regional tensions the decision sent world stock markets tumbling with china posting their worst trading week in more than a month but in the longer term what does this diplomatic uncertainty mean for investors and economically for the region with joining us now from singapore is deborah elms executive director of the singapore based asia trade center good to have you with us so is this an opportunity lost then for the region the summit itself. i don't think so i think it was always questionable whether the summit will take place here in singapore it's still possible that the summit a summit will take place at some point in the future but i don't think that people really have counted on it actually taking place as planned on the twelfth but in
the longer term sonari what was there perhaps an opportunity here to to get bring north korea back into the international arena so to speak and open up all kinds of trade possibilities for the down from there i mean there may have been and certainly there's always that possibility of a future at some point you would like to think that north korea would be brought into the out of the pariah status and back into the global community when that will take place it's a little unclear sooner would be better certainly on behalf of the north korean people that would be fantastic but there are some real challenges to getting that done and the more the u.s. side of particular talked about the libya example the harder it is to get north korean elites to go along with the strategy because in their minds the libya example is either death or prison and neither one of those outcomes sounds
particularly attractive so if you were a north korean elite the last thing you want is the libya example repeat it again against north korea yeah i think you're referring there to what the national security national security adviser john bolton had said in which he used. that example if you think that that is perhaps what what what killed it for food for the north koreans and what led to their tougher rhetoric on this. well i think if you look back over the history that you know this is not a regime that's been easy to deal with no matter who is in charge but i do think that the use of the term libya and the repeated discussions about unilateral disarmament are very difficult kind of language to use before he even had the opportunity to sit down and meet for the first time and when you set that up as the a rich the initial goal i think it's even harder to get the north koreans to come to the table and i think what you saw was increasing north korean anger needing the
u.s. to cancel the summit and so i think i mean i don't think that's especially surprising . it's got you got two sides who are both. disruptive type leader and it's difficult to get too disruptive type leaders to get together when they have never met before and when they both practice a certain kind of diplomacy that is about sort of bombus them threats and it's hard to see how those two kinds of leaders can get to gather and it's peaceful some that kind of fashion and what does china get out of all of this they are of course north korea's closest ally and the argument has been made that they they may have had a hand in this basically telling north koreans hold on a second here you need to take a a tougher line on this and. the result is that they the argument again has been made that they have leverage now china has leverage now with the u.s.
in their ongoing trade negotiations you would is there any truth to that you think . well i think the chinese are probably ok with the summit being canceled because they it was cancelled for nothing to do with china and the chinese in this case were not the cause of the cancellation so they cannot be held accountable i don't think or anything the north koreans may or may not have done or anything that may result from the summit itself so in this case china i think is probably satisfied with the outcome they they did what they could to get the koreans to agree to go asylum let us call off the some chinese probably feel like they've done what they can how does this impact their their trade dealings with the u.s. at the moment because that is another track and the u.s. knows that china. has has a lot of influence on north korea in their trade relations with them. now that it's a little bit more difficult i mean one of the reasons why you might argue the united states has been relatively nice or at least that's some interpretation of
u.s. policy relatively nice to china especially around the c.t.e. . the this ancient united states wanted to propose to the west to get china's cooperation on all parts ahead of this summit if the summit is not going to happen then and the question is well how long is the united states going to continue to be nice to china if the summit gets postponed altogether or gets postponed to the fall are the americans going to continue to be pleasant to the chinese or do they say never mind the north korean summit issue we now will pursue with all of them in bigger sections real one arguments that we've been having and imposed tariffs against the chinese go after them for ip intellectual property rights that go after c.t.e. as we had originally stated and so forth and if that happens then the chinese will be probably less happy that the summit was canceled than they are maybe at this
very moment and what does this leave the south koreans and all of their efforts at trying to get this whole mall between north and south and. between the united states and north korea. well i think the south koreans are clearly the probably the but i would say the most unhappy of them all i was in seoul last week with many of the. folks in the south korean government and the level of enthusiasm for this summit was how because from the highest leadership to very junior people really excited about the possibility of finally ending the threat of nuclear war right up there for her very enthusiastic about a different approach maybe this would be the one that solve problems and so to find out that not only is the summit cancelled but that the u.s. did so without even notifying the south koreans first i has got to be incredibly disappointing disheartening. anger provoking the south koreans have got to be
saying to themselves what what else can we do ourselves to solve those how reliable a partner is the united states now that it puts them in a very awkward position good to speak with you deborah elms in singapore thank you thank you how is it's only puts the finishing touches on a new coalition government there's growing concern in the e.u. over its euro skeptic stance many of focusing on the prospects of europe's third largest economy at the hands of a big spending government we'll talk more about that in just a moment but immigration was also a major issue lawrence lee has that you can't live like this with any dignity but this roma community is forced to try the municipality stopped rubbish collection years ago so it's piled up everywhere as people try to sell scrap. it is barely running water so they have to improvise everything most are italian
citizens and many work but they won't show their faces because they fear their employers would fire them if their identity is discovered. matteo salvini the leader of the far right league party routinely tweets that they are gypsy thieves and he will bulldoze the camps of course the roma people have seen all the messages and they're outraged that this assault on them is pure propaganda it's racism the word gypsy shouldn't be used at all he talks about bulldoze as if he will be the one to come and clean up the camps he should be a politician he should do something else the threats are already attracting the attention of human rights advocates even before the new government is formed. these politicians don't realize what the situation is you can't expel italians the ones from the former yugoslavia are either here legally or they are stateless so no country would take them back. in the election here nearly one in five italians
voted for the league party and so plainly it isn't difficult to convince angry disillusioned people that europe cares more about outsiders than ethnic italians of course whether or not they're serious about bulldozing these places and trying to deport european citizens there's a different question about the sort of language that's being used and its consequences in the new government mr salvini would be in charge of home affairs the police and immigration during the election campaign a nigerian migrant savagely murdered an italian woman and salvini said this. an eighteen year old girl should not die cut into two pieces and put into a suitcase because of nigerian illegal migrant drug pusher was wandering around italy freely the next day a man draped in the italian flag shot several migrants in the east italian town of maturity. with the salvini would of course deny he is speaking for
a fascist fringe but rather for millions of italian people angry that they've been left to deal with a massive immigration problem by themselves nor is italy the only country threatening mass deportations germany is currently trying to remove thirty thousand nigerians but there is no question the threats are part of the new politics in italy. well joining us now from london is lynn graham taylor senior rate strategist with the netherlands based rob a bank thanks so much for being with us so this economic plan that the new italian government has put forward involves sharply increasing spending repealing reforms of the labor and the pension market and in doing that directly violating the financial limits set by the european union for four countries using the euro are they really on a collision course now with europe yeah i think it's fair to say there's been a very hard line taken by the major political closing employ of us in the league
and it does look very much like you know they want to increase spending and that will put them on a collision course with fissures in brussels but is there if i can put it this way is there is there bark bigger than there bite is is it just a lot of talk at this point i mean how how serious are they about this you know i think the jury is out on exactly the extent of their plans that they'll be able to implement there so for the next six month period. you know perhaps that only go for some of the more tokenistic elements of their manifesto of their sort of joint agreement but the fact is also there's quite a lot of strength behind their feelings about the stuff they do want to implement and almost regardless of what they do if the rhetoric stays up it's going to impact the bond markets so funding italian spreads are going to go on and certainly be biased to the upside on headline risk yeah i mean that's the that's the central
point isn't it all comes down to how the markets. react to this and will that be the kind of deciding factor in all of this. i think it was certainly an important role in the background obviously a lot of the fact is the you know italy has a very high debt stock with and so it has to play on the minds of policymakers you know they might want to say in public that you know they're not going to be held hostage by the market but ultimately the funding cost of the state is a pretty important thing and so they have to bear that in mind and as you say it's a. high debt at the moment but we're talking as well about europe's fourth largest economy here much much bigger than than greece which is now finally appearing to come out of its economic malaise after something like a year is what what implications is is does a country like italy have what ripple effect could that a hat that have across the block you know i think for the first time really over
the last or six or seven years we've seen a gradual wind down and attenuation in the markets minds of existential questions about the future of the eurozone and i think those effectively you know get different the questions we're being asked are those of come back to the forefront of people's minds and once they've been thought again they can't be on thoughts and i think you you know you see you're going to see a bit of a there has been a structure structure the higher level of peripheral yields even if there has been to some extent the correlation between you know the likes of spain and portugal and italy and these thoughts can't be on thought and i think that the added premium is here to stay and what are the markets looking at as far as the new italian prime minister conti some something of a political novice is he equipped to handle all of this yeah i mean to be honest i think of the moment a lot of the focus is just on who exactly is going to be the finance minister that's almost seen as a more important role going forward is very much he was
a very you know there was a pm he was very much a consensus choice and someone that they could both agree on but we might get much more of a steer on also. policies that are likely to be implemented and whole negotiation process with europe once we get exactly who the new finance minister will be in the government although actually all of the most talked about candidates are to some extent looking for quite hard line when it comes to negotiating with europe the deal they want for italy from the other members of the eurozone and just going back to those ambitious spending plans the big question that comes to mind is how they are they going to pay for all of this one thing and essentially they'll be some hope that it will be they'll be some higher growth but it looks like you know that flexibility to be running a bigger budget deficit and hoping that you know obviously the hope amongst the the politicians implementing the policies as if you threw into higher economic growth and some become self-sustaining from a from a budgetary perspective lynn graham taylor thanks very much for being with us thank you still to come on counting the cost what's behind the rising price of oil and
how is it affecting the global economy. powell is currently trading at a near three year high conflicts in the middle east and the twenty fifteen iran nuclear core breakup have pushed up the price because of potential global supply risks to add to this opec and its allied nations have been curbing output since the start of last year so how worried should consumers feel or is it now time to accept whatever the market dictates with joining us now from geneva is joe camel each yani a professor at the graduate institute in geneva and the co-director of the executive master in oil and gas leadership course thanks very much for being with us so do you think first of all oil prices are set to go higher to perhaps one hundred dollars a barrel i don't know that they will go to one hundred dollars about. correct that is a situation today is that there really is not then sure in in terms of physical quantities
the man that supply. supplies sufficient to meet demand there is no reason in fundamentals so. why the price should go up as you said it's all potential it's expectations maybe were left less oil in the future if there is sanctions stringent sanctions on iran which all the countries that do not agree with this actions will not be able to bypass or maybe there is going to be an even worse crisis in venezuela but for the moment there is none of that but saudi arabia and other opec nations want these prices to continue to go up they've been cutting supplies. in the hopes that that would happen so in appears that that strategy is working is continuing to work. yes it does sound has been talking prices are up. less so in other countries even less so for example you know and the.
minister of petroleum has said that the price should not increase much beyond sixty dollars per barrel saw opinions differ. surely demand has been increasing quite rapidly over the past few months over the past year we have had that had shown of one point seven million barrels per day to demand and so eventually supply also has to increase to meet this demand we have to wait and see what the point of equilibrium will be and where does the u.s.'s shale oil fit into this because as these prices continue to guard. does that increase the incentive for. u.s. producers to start pumping out shale oil again which is cheaper to do but absolutely they are doing this production is increasing its effect on global
prices has not felt very much because of several especially transportation bottlenecks we have again a situation in which there is a large gap that has opened in between the so-called brant but ice which is a price for oil delivered in the north sea in w t r a which is the price for oil delivered in line and in in the united states or in oklahoma so this was opened again it's. seven dollars or more so there is a significant difference to do to. the price of oil still to speak internationally and the price of oil in the united states indicating that there is abundant supply in the united states but once sufficient pipeline. is established to export more of us or oil this differential will tend to decrease in u.s.
exports we learn of. dampening effect on global prices so what's all this going to mean then for consumers particularly for motorists prices at the pump looks set to go up and we've got the summer driving season coming up as well it's going to going to take a hit on people's pocketbooks isn't it yes exactly and what we need to see is what the reaction of consumers will be in the united states and elsewhere because there is always. delusion i believe an impression which is wrong that consumers will not react to that demand will not react to changes in prices even recently the saudi minister of it roland i said. the consumers can pay more well maybe they can be more but the question is whether they will be more
if confronted with this increase in prices they may be very will react by reducing consumption and this is in again a factor that may dampen prices in the future so what's at stake here for saudi arabia and they've got this big aramco i.p.o. coming up the big state oil company sale they've got lots of ambitious and very expensive domestic projects and they've got to continue financing the ongoing war in yemen so they're going to do everything they can on dated to keep these prices high while saudi arabia like all are producing cut there is must. find a balancing point between the long term interests and short term interests in the short term clearly interesting having high prices because that improves that financial situation the. it's very normal but how prices may discourage demand we should not forget that people expect their man for oil globally to be in the more
or less near future this may be by two thousand and thirty or soon thereafter so the more you drive the price up the more it becomes. probable that consumers will react and that some demand will be destroyed it's this effect of demand destruction that must be looked at very carefully because if you push prices too high demand will be destroyed and so in the longer around you may be losing you come up with jani thanks so much for your time. now if you caught last week's show we told you all about g.d.p. our if you remember the big european union legislation on data protection it's now come into effect and you have been seeing the results of it already lots of emails in your inbox from companies basically asking if you still want to hear from them businesses now need to ask for consumers consent to harvest data so people will
have to actively opt in and consumers have the right to know if their from nation is being used and for what purpose companies in breach of g.d.p. are can be fined up to four percent of annual global turnover and staying with tech french president emanuel mccraw has called for more openness and honesty from technology companies facebook's boss and other industry chief executives attended a summit in paris along with political leaders the discussions come after mark zuckerberg was grilled by members of the european parliament on the use of data and fake news. the sony is to buy a controlling stake in e.m.i. music publishing for two point three billion dollars the japanese company wants to strengthen its music portfolio the deal will see it get a catalog of more than two million songs sixty percent stake in my as part of sony's growth plan built around content and streaming services still needs approval
though from the regulators. the police in malaysia have seized nearly thirteen million dollars from apartments links to the family of former prime minister najib razak have been accused of pocketing millions of dollars of public money including from state fund one m d b which he set up in two thousand and nine he denies any wrongdoing. and that is our show for this week remember you can get in touch with us by tweeting me at has him seeker and do you use the hash tag a.j.c. to see when you do or drop us an e-mail counting the cost that al-jazeera dot net is our address. as morphew online at. the a dot com slash c t c that will take you straight to all page which has individual ports and links and the time episodes for you to catch up on. that is it for this edition of counting the cost remember the news is up next for me has a secret and the whole team here thanks for joining us.
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